tv Asia Edge Bloomberg April 26, 2015 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
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t in their one-off sale. >> coming up, cure for the chinese debt hangover, why are companies turning to the market for financing with $161 billion in secondary stock offerings expected this year? that and much more in this edition. >> we are on market watch. as you can see here things will be much the same, the most recent run notwithstanding, recent markets across the region hitting fresh multiyear highs 13 days of being out of the last 16, mostly higher brent at the highest level 22% to 23% above the level of the start of this month. across the region if you had to pick a group of winners it's the oil names, unsurprising, moving it it -- up.
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about one stock, the heaviest way hsbc extending gains friday, there we go, 77 to 65 maybe considering a move that moves them back one step closer to relocating their headquarters out of the u.k. according to speculation on shares closer to $80 hong kong dollars were pop. still above water at last i checked, that's the june contract you are looking at open interest at $110,000 softer this morning against the euro, that is one of the exceptions really. taking a look at the continued stalemate on friday, it didn't exactly go well. one market that i want to point out before i go worth a
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mention, taiwan, up seven/10 of 1%. foreign money continues to pour into the country given the inflow out of the last 12 months, north of 13.4 billion dollars the highest index, in fact, at one point this morning moving above 10,000. should be a milestone. very briefly we will be back below that. leaving it there for now, a good day in the markets overall, back to you. >> our top story remains the devastating earthquake in nepal more than 3200 people are thought to have died following that powerful shock on saturday according to the nepalese disaster management agency, dozens of aftershocks continue to shake the area, the initial tremor kicking off avalanches on mount everest at least 19 foreign climbers and sherpa guides their international aid operation is already underway, warning that lives are still at
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risk. we have a look now at the disaster at the moment and the international aid effort getting into full effect. >> absolutely, the death toll is staggering, we know at least 5000 people injured, many more in areas so remote that they cannot be reached at the moment. we know that the himalayas are one of the most active seismic zones in the world saturday was no exception. we have dramatic new video that has come in from mount everest. this is the avalanche, just stunning video, look at that wall of snow coming towards these hikers. that just gives you a sense of what they had to deal with and wise so many people lost their lives there. we know 19 people -- and we are certainly awaiting further word on whether there are more casualties as a result of that, but the toll on people in the
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paul is certainly far worst something that international rescuers are trying to assess as we speak. take a look also at images coming in, still photos that we are seeing from inside nepal, it shows you the extent of the damage towns completely destroyed, that image is hard to look at that scene repeated all over this country. as many as 6 million people according to the united nations, living in the areas affected by the earthquake. one million children also affected. >> and the weather is not helping either. a couple of months ago it was monsoon season getting underway rain through the course of this weekend. >> you are right, monsoon season comes in june in a country that already has poor infrastructure a key concern. the rain is unforgiving, adding insult to injury. a sad situation.
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>> we will of course have a special program on the earthquake a little bit later, looking at the human cost of the disaster. that is coming up in about 25 minutes from now. >> leaders are being urged to stand up to china with reclamation in disputed waters in kuala lumpur from where sophie cameroon joins us right now. sophie, this is all about potentially valuable parts of the south china sea, isn't it? >> certainly it is a good area for maritime crossing. china has got some potential claims in areas that have proximity to the islands on which the vietnam and philippines are taking place. the malaysian foreign minister is attempting to push a joint communique today and monday. the filipino foreign minister saying that even that should not
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be enough they should be standing up to china on the reclamation activities and the filipino foreign minister said that there are concerns that should be point of negotiations being delayed further allowing china to legitimize its activities. >> sophie, what about the role of china as the key trading partner for the region? how do they balance that? >> geopolitics aside, china is not only the biggest trading partner there, they are also ramping up investment in the region and several of the members have backed a china led asia infrastructure investment bank, they are looking at a financing effort infrastructure of one dollar trillion per year through 2020. china is potentially filling the gap with 50 billion u.s. dollars under the aa i see, that is something to consider.
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>> ok, sophie, live in kuala lumpur. >> china is turning to the stock market to find a cure for its debt hangover. i know that soaring debt levels are at an all-time high. steve, what do these numbers tell us? >> for dollinger trillion -- four dollar chilean added to market capitalization in the rally. equity fund raising surpassing sales of corporate debt last month for the first time in three years. allowing money to flow into the equity market as they are faced with a broader economic slowdown. companies paying down my ability on april 23 announcing that it will raise $2.4 billion to fund the purchase of new aircraft and pay off debt. >> look at this chart.
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one hundred 23% after the shanghai composite. >> up 94% in the last six months . china eastern has tripled. these are the other companies. wilson pharmaceutical will have a secondary placement 60% of which is going to pay off debt. iron and steel, february, announcing that they would have a private place to repay bank debt. >> we have a situation where we have got demand outstripping supply. what happens if that condition reverses? >> that is the risk, of course. the first risk is the rise in corporate debt for composite members right now, in january reaching 165% the highest since the data began to compile in 2005. on the flipside, what happens when supply outstrips demand?
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four out of the last crashes or booms and subsequent crashes were triggered by supply outstripping demand. >> steve, thank you. >> other stories making headlines, deutsche bank prepared to unveil cost-cutting plans that could see thousands of job losses. the strategy to be unveiled as soon as today, including branch closures and withdrawing from investment inking businesses. the overall is designed to win back confidence from co-ceos. family power struggles seeming chairman ending their reign of unquestioned authority. the 78 euros stepped down after he publicly challenged martin winterkorn. credited for pulling them back from the brink in the 1990's
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transforming it into one of the world's top three automakers. a tycoon defying calls to quit his chairmanship the board wanted him to go following an internal inquiry into loans and deposits made over three years with transactions including loans of $204 million. >> later on the program, signs of optimism to the singapore banks leaving rewards going up next on the emerging markets getting the country fixed from jpmorgan when "asia edge" returns. ♪
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nine people could be facing a firing squad on tuesday. authorities made a deal for clemency for two citizens and france says that there will be consequences if one of their people is put to death. ask 14 people have been killed in a series of car bombings in baghdad, the deadliest attack happening outside a busy commercial area in the center of the city baghdad has seen worsening violence recently with near daily explosions targeting security forces and the majority. officials blamed the so-called islamic state militant group and other extremists. >> the men it the center of kazakhstan for 25 years heading for another sweeping election victory. he says he called the poll in order to allow a vote for continuity as falling oil prices dampened normally strong economic growth, giving them more than 90% in -- 97% of the vote.
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>> back to the markets, asian stocks are rising for a fifth straight day to, joining us now is the chief market asian equity strategist. chinese stocks briefly above 10,000? >> is interesting that the nasdaq is making a 15 year high. taiwan had reached of this many years ago in the tech bubble. >> emerging market demand, kind of weak, but you are still overweight on em. why? >> when economies are bad is when you start to get more policy support. that's certainly the theme in china. stock markets there have been underperforming since late in 2010, discounting the bad economies and structural problems with bad data now leading to a policy that will help us out of that. >> shanghai has been instrumental as well.
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>> the p/e ratios are going up quite fast. how long are we away from a tipping point? in china we always see booms and busts. >> i don't know how many weeks, months, or years but at the moment the trend seems to be very supportive of the market. we think it is of the interest of the policy maker to keep a healthy equity market. land sales are down, putting a lot of sales strictures on local governments. if we can have an ip over local government entity it helps to alleviate this. the other thing that will be interesting for the next couple of months is capital account reform. we have a review of the special drawing rights in september. >> they wanted by the end of the year. >> the review is in september so it needs to capital market reform over the summer. hopefully it gets rid of four lifts the quotas traumatically.
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if you think about the bond market in china 10 year yield 3.7, 2% real yield in a world in which bond deal is incredibly low, we think if there is capital market reform that money will move into china and help situation in terms of the debt levels on reissuance. >> the perceived oversupply with increase in review process for ipo's announced last friday was not necessarily a concern because demand was going to keep up with supply? >> we think demand will keep up but you're are right to bring this up as a balance issue. as we enter the fair market coming out of november of 2007 much of that was the fear of oversupply. that was the fear of this technical thing of nontradable shares becoming tradable as opposed to fresh money being raised. >> what does this do to the one?
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they will not let up this year. you mentioned there could be a sale in the bond markets. >> i think that running the meal there at the moment is that it will be a strong currency and i think the governor refers to it as the second strongest globally after the u.s. dollar. keep the currency strong, open up the front door allowing the foreigners to go in. at the moment it's closed with vocals going out the back door. [laughter] i don't think it changes anything in terms of allowing foreigners to come in that's the big change here. >> it is an odd dynamic going on right now with record outflows.
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>> i think it is this dynamic that the currency was perceived to be weakening with interest rates being produced in china and the threat that the fed eventually moves at some point, narrowing the interest rate differential and justifying the uncovering of the carriage rate. >> doj by land? do we invent the emphasis expected? does the doj need to move here? 50 years of inflation goals seem unlikely. >> the market will be doing a lot of speculating if they formally reduce the inflation forecast. what are they going to do next? in another itself it will be supportive for markets if they speculate more policy. >> with further weakness? >> it's expected. >> i think it has been the u.s. data that has been driving the
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stall in the rally. we seem to be at the point in the year where we revise down the numbers again and every data point out of the u.s. has been soft like the durable goods numbers last week. >> does that make you question the long u.s. dollar? >> i think that for now the dollar rally is over. let's say that the u.s. slowdown was slightly temporary -- they have had a most extraordinary winter. if you get into the middle of the next quarter the u.s. picks up there is an the doj has not hit their inflation target for qe, i can see the rally resuming. >> ok. >> they have to raise rates don't they? obviously if they get a big softening in the day that we would perhaps get pushback, but it must be raised, right? how do you know the situation has improved if the prime rate is north of 1%? >> once the
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rates are zero they can go negative. a couple of european countries have proven that. you are right, at some point they have to go out but all the data is supporting the delay exiting the policy. >> which countries are going to be more affected in this part of the world? >> by the delay? >> finally normalizing monetary policy. >> i honestly don't think it's a big issue. we have spoken of it at nausea and. the fact that they are so bearish in emerging markets is because of the fed move and the big problem they now have is convincingly outperforming. if you look at relatives earnings numbers turning in the favor of emerging markets a think we are in the process of a protracted short squeeze and people need to get along emerging market equities in china taiwan, or even russia or
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>> welcome back. pbs shares falling in singapore despite the record profit for the first quarter. we have more right now with all the details, what's going on? >> the shares trading company trading down one quarter of 1%, posting record office but prospects are not looking too bright. lending is a key business and given the expected slowdown in loan growth pbs will feel the pinch. the singer core economy like the rest of asia is reaching weighing on lending, so expect headwinds. looking back it t one, strong numbers like you said record profits, $950 million 3% higher than the quarter before, analysts looking for 790 million
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over market expectations findings boosted by two things with a one-time gain. a property in hong kong, they will continue to grow business at the same time and keep a watchful eye on the economy. there are worries. fyi, the first singapore bank with those numbers beating out on thursday. >> they are expanding their presence in asia to cut reliance on the singapore market? >> it looks that way. they are expanding in asia. china is one market. they are already considering one third of revenue there with potential for modi opening up the banking industry to foreign lenders but having said that it is challenging very difficult to do business overseas. i remember that they had ambitions in indonesia, for
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example. they attempted to buy over with $6.5 billion and it did not work out. as much as expansion is a strategy, it's not without challenges. >> all right, despite the heat today, headwinds reflected in the markets today, thank you for that. all the details coming in for the latest earnings. coming up, the latest on the devastation in nepal with our asia edge special. we are going live to kathmandu after the short break. back in two minutes.
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people are believed to have died from saturday's powerful tremor with dozens of aftershocks shaking the area around kathmandu, the number of victims is expected to rise the original tremor triggering avalanches on everest killing at least 19 climbers and their guides. the u.s. geological survey says that economic losses could reach 35% or 50% of gdp. the international aid operation is gaining momentum, lives still at risk despite the growing threat of vital infrastructure being destroyed. indeed, let's have a look at what is happening with this disaster. a major relief operation. >> certainly, 5000 people injured many more if you look
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at this country, which has a limited infrastructure in many places, so that's the key concern that now, getting out into these areas. >> this is where one of the avalanches, of course, hit. >> as images are absolutely frightening, just showing you the force of the earth quake and avalanche triggered, many tourists remain at their camps waiting to get off the mountain with foreign governments at this hour trying to sort out how many of the nationals are in nepal. it is a bewildering situation because there are 6 million nepalese in the earthquake zone. >> people losing their homes after the devastation, their livelihood being tented cities were second night out in the open for many. >> this situation is made far worse than the fact that the
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weather is not cooperating aftershocks and heavy rain over the past two days, the rain of course creating terrible conditions and exacerbating the threat of pathogens, illness, people getting sick from lack of water and sanitation. this could get even worse before it gets better. a terrible situation, so heartbreaking. >> thank you very much, indeed. >> the international community has wasted no time in sending aid to nepal. setting up medical capsule on the shared border medicine and food has gone to the survivors. thank you so much for joining us . what is the latest can tell us about the aid efforts for those in nepal? >> going forward, of course, the prime minister was one of the first responders.
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he has reached out to the nepalese prime minister and india's efforts have focused on evacuating the many indians who are currently pressed into service. these are most -- military heavy lift aircraft evacuating from the area. holding me with the cabinet, he has offered participation in the relief effort as well. of course, going forward in your was severely affected by the earth as well. given that the government has announced a release 400,000 put next of kin with telecom companies who have done this going forward with local calling rates as well.
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they are of course continuing to evacuate citizens while helping out in relief efforts. >> it is important to remind ourselves that the tragedy did not only strike nepal, but india as the country is nestled between china and india. we have heard word of nationals trapped on camp number two and camp number one, 20,000 feet at mount everest there really is no way to get down they are stuck there. any word on the efforts the indian government is making in the efforts to save the people there? >> the latest of we can tell you is that they are in and working on evacuating those there, of
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course, india has been fighting into it with military aircraft as well as helicopters, certainly there will be an update as to how far and successful they are in reaching those trapped on the base one or base to camps, india is continuing to track the foreign ministry and the ministry of external affairs working with authorities to make sure that they get home safe as well. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> let's get over to kathmandu. now the country director from nepal thank you for joining us, does this effort gauge momentum? what other things are needed the most? >> good morning. we have been up and running since the day after the
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earthquake hit kathmandu and the valley on saturday. we are looking at a very dire situation here. the weather is not helping. because of the number of tremors and aftershocks, many people are reluctant to go back into their homes into the streets and open areas. the heavy rains from last night on making it more difficult for them. everyone is advising caution, to make sure that the aftershocks will not bring a further loss of life from what we already had. the point of power brings pumping to the communities and is another source of concern. the airport is functioning and
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we have more details on the landing and taking off of commercial planes bringing assistance and the manpower needed to respond to the crisis. the major road networks, major roads and highways connecting to india, it's very important that the roads are able to connect. what is of course more difficult is reaching out to the small, remote areas in normal circumstances. it can take several days to reach out with the rain plus the quake it is a source of concern. there is even the testament of the situation in those remote areas. >> let's talk a little bit about the kind of help that's needed. are there people coordinating the various ngo's to maximize efficiency and the operation? >> the government has been very
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quick to put together a coordination of affairs have activated emergency national operation centers and at the busiest level over 30 have been affected and each district prior to the quake was given the country's natural disaster and international support activating operation centers, this has tremendously helped to have one point of contact for the equipment and also the coordination of providing the assistance. several countries are sending both people, search and rescue teams are on their way and driving today. a lot of momentum is being created. needs are obviously going to be tremendous and kathmandu and in
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the district. this was the most challenging part at the moment to have a better understanding of the impact of the quake in those far remote districts. choppers are needed to access them with additional helicopters needed in neighboring countries that will really help. >> tell me something here. this was from earlier on and they suggested that the people were in a state of panic there are you seeing any evidence? >> i have not seen any panic myself. nepal is known to be a very vulnerable country. kathmandu valley is seen as one
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of the most vulnerable cities in the world. there is a knowledge and awareness by the population that a lot of work has been done to prepare. this quake was of course very strong. it happened during the day, that certainly was a mitigating factor. really there were very severe consequences hitting people in their sleep. of course this was not the case and kathmandu. people have been arguing caution outside their homes today being with the communities, the neighbors, just being aware of the aftershocks at the moment, more than 65 since the quake, some of them are very strong. the last one was earlier this morning. we all felt it, again, the big creek but you know, there is no panic.
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people are aware. they can see that search and rescue is going on law and order patrolling during the night to avoid an issue. i would not describe the issue is panicked at all. >> thank you so much. >> coming up next, a lot more on the story, including the economic indications. we will get an analysis from the chief asian economist coming up next. ♪
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new got there this morning, give us an idea of what you saw in your journey from the airport. >> things are pretty calm. but there is quite a bit of concern about more aftershocks. there is a worry of the buildings that have already been shaken are splitting down the side and that they could topple. most of the people are on the street or under tents and large pavilions in the town where they spent the evening. generally they are just trying to stay safe and wait this out. the largest congregation of people that we saw a earlier this morning was in a hospital called teaching hospital where they had about 600 beds 3000 patients in the hospital for the last 48 hours.
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the first 48 are critical to recovery for many of these patients who are suffering from life-threatening injuries. crush amputations, they are in dire conditions the hospital is lacking resource they are in a dire need for aid and waiting for help. >> are you seeing any evidence of the international aid to being distributed at the airport? >> we came in and it looked like five or six large piles. i'm not sure of what. it seemed like materials had come off the airplane from india or other countries. are they getting around kathmandu? i'm not sure yet. but one of the doctors told me that even if it is getting around it's not getting around
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to the people most affected. in the villages where ordinarily it might take one or two days to get there the landslide just damaged the roads and there is little access and less government over there. i'm sure that the aid is not getting there is quickly as people need it. he said there could be casualties of as much as 100% in some of these villages. certainly that is cause for concern. >> you just talked about these outlying and remote villages. does anyone know what kind of disasters have the following these? >> not really. the most telling statement from some of the people that we talked to is that there is very little government presence over there.
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it's difficult to know what conditions are like. and there are tens or hundreds of thousands suffering, you don't know it. the time passes. the problem only gets more serious. thank you there, joining us there from kathmandu. >> let's take a wider look right now at what this means for nepal. joining us now is the chief asia-pacific economist at hi fs. what is the economic impact here? >> clearly this is a catastrophic event on a very poor nation. one of the poorest nations in the world in terms of per capita gdp per year of 1000 u.s. dollars, so they are very unable
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financially to deal with the impact of this disaster. the first focus is of course on the rescue and relief efforts. there will have to be a lot of international support in terms of their own resource capability , which is really limited. the first step will be for a strong international corporation. looking beyond rescue operations, of course there is also a massive chance for reconstruction. given initial indications on the extent of damage in the valley and some villages, some have reported half the housing having collapsed, the cost of reconstruction over the next few years will be massive. in terms of the overall gdp also very small by global standards, only $20 billion in u.s. dollar terms, the cost of reconstruction could easily
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exceed $5 billion, or 20% of the total gdp of nepal. clearly, nepal itself has no capability financially to pay for that so there is going to have to be a major international donor aid program to help with reconstruction efforts. that will have to come after the rescue operations. right now the focus is on saving lives and providing emergency assistance. >> right. >> tourism is a very big part of the economy, accounting for about 8% of the gdp and there are about 800,000 tourists to visit every year. that will of course all stop for many months to come. they will also lose one of their key sources of momentum. it is an extreme crisis that needs to be addressed and coordinated by global aid agencies and the united nations
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to try to respond to this tremendous disaster. >> is at the will of the community to come in and make a long-term commitment to the nepalese? >> i do get will happen, especially since the amount needed will not be great compared to the resources of large economies, like china and india, and nepal is a neighbor. i'm sure the many other major economies, the u.s., the eu japan they will all play an important role in a coordinated way. the nature of multilateral organizations like the u.n. will be playing a role to try to handle this in a sensible way.
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the problem in nepal is that the construction centers are low. the people live in prop -- poverty without the money for proper housing and with reconstruction work now it will have to be great standards. >> that's the thing, the poverty in nepal has really exacerbated the death toll. the shaking alone means that 1000 people die in nepal as opposed to the kinds of construction efforts in california, let's say, where maybe something similar only 10 to 20 people would have these casualties. it really is about the infrastructure and the policies that are in place right now. it is a poor nation. >> exactly, it's the poverty of the country and the extremely poor standard of building construction that is a key cause of the high death toll.
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we don't even know the true death toll. the numbers keep increasing. but remote villages are not able to be accessed right now, the death toll is going to mount significantly and a lot of this is attributable to poor quality construction. already they need international assistance over the next decade in order to rebuild the housing to the much higher standards. >> 3200 dead, 3200 dead so far and counting, thank you for joining us form -- from ihs. >> quick to respond to the crisis in nepal despite limited communications. >> social media has been driving the information flow when our special report continues. ♪
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>> google and facebook are offering -- offering the safety online check, where you can pick facebook if you're not in the area. safety check, these are some of my friends online and these people have already checked in that they are safe. even if you are not yourself connected to the internet you can check or other people, whether they are safe or basically not in the disaster zones. google has opened a new feature where you can find someone or post information about someone you know. since i am not in the disaster zone, no results were found no records for the people there this feature has been work on since the haiti earthquake.
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>> this is really aiding in what has traditionally been a job for red cross as they attempt to legit to cleave figure out who's in the area and connect people of families. lexis is something that helps is a combo entry resource. >> people making internet connections with their iphones, they can check whether or not they are in the area. also phone companies jumping in to help the donations coming in, made -- mobile payment companies providing apps, unicef saying that they can send the donation to the site with more direct ways of -- helping like red cross.org. >> is very easy to donate through one of those websites.
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