twitter, timeline views are so last year. twitter is not football. and it is timeless a new generation of saudi royalty bushes the old out the door. good morning everyone. this is sursur. we're live from our world headquarters in new york. it is wednesday, april 29. where did the month employ? i'm tom teen. joining me brendan greeley. let's get straight to our top headlines. brendan? brendan: in baltimore, police used tear gas overnight to disperse a crowd that ignored a 10:00 curfew. it was relatively peaceful a day after the city was rocked by looting and violence. violence erupted in the wake of the funeral of a black man who died in plus custody. president obama: there's no excuse for the kind of violence we saw yesterday. it is counterproductive. when individuals get crowbars and start prying open doors to

loot they're not protesting. brendan: still, many showed up yesterday and began cleaning up broken glass and other debris. meanwhile, the baltimore orioles will play their game today against the chicago white sox in an empty camden yards. the stadium is being closed to the public. the home series this weekend has been moved to tampa. in nepal, the earthquake death toll has now risen past 5,000. authorities admit they don't know what the devastation is like in countries -- the country's remote villages. some areas can only be reached by helicopter or foot. the united nations says more than two million people live in severely affected areas. medical facilities are being described as overwhelmed. arguments are over now. the supreme court will go behind closed doors to decide the matter of same-sex marriage. the court heard arguments yesterday. the chief justice directed the bulk of his questions at the same-sex marriage opponents. roberts told them, if you

succeed here, there will nobody more debate. >> you say join in the institution. the argument on the other side is that they're seeking to redefine the institution. every definition that i looked up prior to about two dozen years ago, defined marriage as a unity between man and woman, as husband and wife. obviously if you succeed, that court definition will no longer be optimal. brendan: chief kennedy is likely to be the pivotal vote. he says they're seeking dignity. he also said the definition of marriage has been with us for millennia and it's difficult for the supreme court to say we know better. the twitter c.e.o. may have a credibility problem. twitter cut its sales forecasts after first quarter revenue cut estimates and shares fell 18%. costolo failed to see the slowdown coming, and plus he's been promising new features will pay off. he said he's disappointed in the performance of his advertising team. i'll bet he is. and it was a night of pomp and

ceremony at the white house. president obama hosted japan's prime minister to a state dinner. among the guests, former star trek actor george takei who said he'd been to a state dinner once before. here's the morning brief at 8:30 a.m. u.s. g.d.p. is out. tom is just jittery in his seat waiting for that number. 10:00 a.m., we get pending home sales. and the fed releases its latest rate decision. tom? tom: very good. busy day of economics, and we have a terrific set of guests lined up to help enthuse morning. we got a special guest in this hour as well on retirement. futures, negative. the 10-year -- the euro rather over 110. that's a big deal. big deal stronger euro confounding the parity crew. let's go to our second showing better than good, way below 13. complacency in the markets as we go to the fed meeting with

our full coverage this afternoon on bloomberg television. sterling on a tear. there's no other way to describe it. stronger sterling, 1.5370. i threw in yen. and again, that's a big deal as abe visits washington. let's go to the mac monitor and get excited about american economic growth. this is maybe the most emotional chart for millennials, brendan, that exists. your note was fourth quarter moving average back to the 90's 2001 recession this was kind of like here's what was. and here's where we are now with today's number roughly 1%, and here's what was. this is what the benchmark of a good time in america should be, 15-year dearth trying to get back. brendan: right, but again, every time we look at this, i always want to extend it much farther back to ask, what is normal? we had this beautiful thing from 1960 to about 1995, maybe 2000, when we came to believe what normal was.

maybe it never comes back. tom: you're strongly correct, if n that it's a little bit below here. but this is the emotion that younger americans confront. we don't have this. this is what we got. these are the cards we were dealt. it is fed day, and it's a fed less focused on a persistent financial repression low rate return of course, the break of riskier investments, low rates have absolutely crushed, no question about that. frederick lane with lane generational and raymond james is across the desk from somebody and try to explain that what was is not going to happen again. he joins us with his blunt hour on your retirement reality. alicia will join us from boston college. you're in the trenches. if you are handling the retirement account, what would be your advice? >> well, i don't know how much she's saved. i don't know what the retirement savings is. tom: i understand each one is different, but what's the basic message? >> the basic message is that

depending on your time frame having to take money from your retirement savings to support yourself invest in equities. actually invest in smart stocks which have proven over many years to be superior. tom: or mid caps for that matter. fred: exactly right, despite the fact that -- tom: but isn't as you know fred lane, you have to put away more money. fred: exactly. we have to put away more money. tom: within this conversation, this goes back to employment retirement, income security, after 1974 and we never got to put aside growth. brendan: exactly. some people go to fred lane and talk about municipal pensions, which are a huge problem. and again, states and cities are relying on the assumption of 8% growth. my question to you is whether that's realistic long term. can we say 8% growth is the benchmark? fred: not with g.d.p. run where it is. i think the question you asked earlier, what is the new normal, is a great question.

because the fact of the matter is let's remember demographics. the baby boomers, those born from 1946 to 1964, depending on how you would to define it those baby boomers were the largest population i think in u.s. history. they have too many entitlements, and that's pensions that are unsustainable levels. brendan: boomer puncher, i like this. fred: i'm a boomer puncher. i say we have stolen the future from younger generations. tom: within the dialogue of the fed going to september, going to december, look where the markets are right now, the great distortions that are out there in our retirement battle, can janet yellen save the day? fred: no, she cannot save the day. there's no such thing as a single bullet. there's a change in attitude, and i think there's -- there's a leadership issue here. i mean obama proposed

supplemental i.r.a. structures, and it was a very sensible thing to do. and we need that. we need -- i hate to to say, it but it sounds like the state, but we need legislation driving increased savings. brendan: i would say, just given the opportunity, the difference between people who have access to a 401-k and people who don't have access to a 401-k in terms of retirement planning is huge. it's almost binary. in a sense i don't see that as anti-statism. i see that as giving people wage jobs, the same opportunity that salaried jobs have. tom: i want to talk terms with alicia later in the hour. when we look at the markets now, you say we need to be in equities. so many people have missed the bull market. what is the enthusiasm, or are you basically hedged in cash or derivative instruments? fred: if you want to get no

return, it's cash, virtually no return, you can try to play up options and try to play the volatility, which is beyond most people's ability to do. tom: where there's play. fred: if you want to invest long term, you have to be an investor in equities. there's no right place or wrong place there's no right time or wrong time. you have to jump in. if you invested at the top of the market in 2007 and you held it to today, your investment returns would be about 6.5%. the worst possible timing. it would be very, very unusual to choose the perfectly worst timing. if you bought at the bottom of the market in 2008 2009, you would have had a 28%. brendan: let me ask real quick just circle back to where we started, i've got maybe 30 good working years left. what should be my assumption of growth? if not 8% what?

what number do i put at the top of these spreadsheets? fred: i would put 6%. brendan: all right, ok. that's conservative. tom: we have a great lineup of guests today randy crossman. tom: and we need twitter. brendan: that is our twitter question of the day. investors are not pleased. wait, that's not our question of the day. i am really confused. all right we're going to tell you why you need to pay attention to twitter's earnings after the break, which is not the twitter question of the day. it is, however, "bloomberg surveillance." bloomberg television, that's definitely where we're broadcasting right now, also streaming on your tablet, phone. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone,

"bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom keene with brendan greeley. brendan why, -- brendan: right now, saudi have seized hundreds of weapons. officials say they planned to attack the u.s. embassy in are you yard. authorities say some of the suspected have ties to the islamic state. nearly 300 women and girls were rescue from the boko haram, but none of the school girls kidnapped a year ago are among them. they're still missing. and two terms summarize how americans are learning about the world. according to pew's new visitors get information from emotional devices than desktop computers, and nearly half of web users learn about politics from facebook. the report says people are more impatient on small screens than desktops. they're most impatient when sitting in tom keene's chair. coming up on "bloomberg

surveillance" -- tom: that's news? brendan: the saudi king reshuffles the cabinet. we're going to go to riyadh to talk about that. we talk about the looming retirement crisis at 6:50 a.m. we focus on the fed financed's target rate in our single best chart. all right, an embarrassing slip for twitter yesterday. shares tumbled after financial information provider solarity posted their first-quarter earnings about an hour ahead of time. that's what a freakout looks like. they say they found the earnings information on the investor page of twitter's own website. it said there was "no leak and no hack." bloomberg intelligence's paul sweeney is almost done celebrating duke's win. does he say the mistake was awkward, but not that material to the stock's performance. paul help me understand what's going on long term with twitter right now. we had this awkward number the awkward slip. but is there problems that they aren't growing fast enough, or

is there problems that they aren't figuring out how to take the growth they have and turn it into revenue? paul: a little bit of both. for the last several quarters, the real issue for twitter was user growth. it slowed down a little bit while other user growth, like facebook, continues to accelerate. so the concern among investors is, is twitter just a niche social media advertising platform, or is it more of a mass advertising platform, like a facebook, with over 1.4 billion users? they seemed to address some of the user growth this quarter, but they put out revenue numbers that really disappointed the street, and that's what took the stock down. brendan: are they failing to turn it into a platform for bigger things? this is one of the things i've noticed. they've done such great work with the messenger, allowing businesses to adapt their own networks, whereas twitter is still what they were five years ago, sharing messages and pictures. paul: that's right. so they're trying to introduce some advertising products that will attract new advertisers to the platform.

you probably see that in the news feed, lot more type of advertising, direct response advertising, app install type of advertising. that's -- they're iterating all the time a lot, which means they're just trying to come up with an advertising products that work that will engage their users. but what happens here is unfortunately, a couple of products they introduced in the last quarter did not drive the revenue growth that they were looking for. back to the drawing board. tom: i read very carefully the nuances of how they're going to create advertising and their lovely plans and that. let me cut to the chase. i thought i saw a lot of posturing last night. what's the level of panic at twitter? paul: there's always been an issue with management. personally, dick costolo, is he the right person to take it to the growth stage to the mature company stage? there's been a lot of turnover with senior management. anthony was a very good addition from the street's

perspective. tom: agreed. paul: but there's only so much they can do. brendan: some of the analysis yesterday was this. victor anthony said it calls into question why they didn't see this coming. we're not talking about strategy, we're talking about management. paul: exactly. this is simply a guidance issue. what it tells you is that their advertising dollars are coming in last minute. they don't have the visibility on their advertising that they thought they were going to have, and so what you have is, you know, the first quarter was ok but the second quarter revenue was almost 20% below where the street was. that's really, really unusual for a fast growth company here. there does call into question once again all the management return we've seen is impacting operations and, you know, lot of bears say absolutely. brendan: the biggest criticism fred, the background to what we're talking about here is that the assumption is twitter is just p.r. people and journalists talking to each other. do you actually use it? fred: i do.

i find it awkward, to be honest with you. i find it a difficult platform to use. i'm an old guy, you know, trying to figure out these technologies. i'm finding facebook is easier to use. i think linkedin changes to their platform, their changes are very impressive. and to me twitter is a little bit the third wheel on this bicycle, making a tricycle. i don't find it quite as attractive. tom: paul sweeney, thank you so much, on twitter this morning. coming up, a conversation with mr. costolo on "street smart" this afternoon at 3:00 p.m. there will somebody questions that need to be asked. it's fed day, which means we've got a market of negative. ♪

tom: good morning from new york city folks, "bloomberg surveillance." brendan greeley with me this morning. let me get to the morning must read, which is disney-like. i mean that with great respect for the saudi people. this is from the atlantic in january. a transition leader leader, but if the throne eventually passes to muhammad bin nayef where does it go from there? to his sons? his brothers? saudi succession is a work in progress. we are honored to bring you one of the great saudi watchers. on very short notice. john, good morning. john good morning tom. tom: the moment here is pushing the old guys out the door. will they go gracefully? john: absolutely. they have no choice. the new king wants to make sure

that a younger group of people come into power, and they're part of the decision-making process. tom: the new people coming into power, how attune are they to the new relationships that saudi has with egypt, the battle with yemen, with iran and the rest of the gulf community? are they a more sophisticated set of people? what is their character? john: absolutely. you can't get a better person who knows counterterrorism than prince muhammad bin nayef. he has been in the trenches since the early 2000's 2000 in saudi arabia. he has been somebody who has dealt quite well with a lot of force, but also candidness the terrorism that saudi arabia faced back in 2004 through 2007. he's a very adept person. and then you have the defense minister who's very capable.

he has shown and demonstrated a lot of technical prowess in yemen, and he was disappointed also the third person in command. so the message here is that the king wants to bring in the young generation. saudi arabia was criticized for a long time for disappointing 70-year-olds and 80-year-olds into important portions. now it's the young people who are taking over. brendan: as we watch this reshuffling, help us understand which of the actual important positions that have power and which positions are make work for royal? john: i think the most important position is, of course, that of the king. the second most important is the crown prince. in many ways, they're sending a message that the next king is going to be the crown prince. however, having said that the third in command the deputy crown prince, is somebody to reckon with. it's somebody who is in his 30's, and he will be the next crown prince if all goes well.

tom: your skill is to look at the royal family away from the headline makers. how will the rest of a very extend royal family, how will they take this announcement, and what is the domestic politics that needs to be played? john: always from the outside, people say that there is discord in saudi arabia, but all of this wouldn't have happened if there was no consensus. this is all decisions that includes everybody in the royal family. brendan: sued vabe more engaged than it has been in a generation does. this shift in power portend to any shift in politics? john: i don't think so. i think the fact they kept the oil minister means that oil policy continues as is. market share is important for saudi. they change the minister of labor, so the chairman the c.e.o. of saudi is now the new minister of labor, the new minister of health, i'm sorry. so that's important. and the minister of labor became the minister of economy. so these are important posts.

they want to show that the country is changing and they're bringing people who have dealt with difficult problems to fix some of the issues. tom: ok, john, thank you so much. john sfakianakis from riyadh this morning, truly a changing. guard for the saudis. our twitter question of the day, what's the fix for america's retirement crisis? of course, this centers around a conversation with alicia from boston college. we'll do that in moments. stay with us. word wide, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," i'm tom keene. brendan greeley with us. he has our top headlines. brendan: for the most part troops in baltimore were silent last night, a day after widespread looting and

violence. police did use tear gas to break up a crowd. those people ignored the curfew. authorities say their strategy is successful. one sign of recovery, people were sweeping up glass and pick up debris in an area where stores and cars had been burned. thank you, charm city. one more note the safety measures, the baltimore orioles will play this afternoon's game with the chicago white sox in an empty stadium. major league baseball says it doesn't think any previous game had been played without fans. how about them o's? in nepal, the government admits it's overwhelmed by the aftermath of the earthquake. death toll is now over 5,000. it continues to climb. authorities say they don't know the fate of remote villages high up in the himalayas. the military has been dropping pack annals. there had been reports of rioting in places where supplies have run low. japan's prime minister abe is making history today. he'll become the first japanese leader to address a joint session of congress. abe attended a state dinner at the white house last night. earlier he gave a hint of what

he may cover in a state speech. he underscored his support for the asian trade agreement. >> on the bilateral outstanding issues, we welcome the fact that significant progress was made. we will continue to cooperate to lead the talks to its last fate. brendan: republicans may be more receptive to his remarks on trade. many say it will cost american jobs and depress wages. in london, the accused flash crash trader was back in court today. he's still being held in jail. he hasn't posted $7.5 million in bail yet. the court agreed to a u.s. request to push an extradition hearing to september 24. his lawyers have said he will fight extradition. tom? tom: yes, and you know hulu. it's about to announce one of the biggest acquisitions in history. the online video site has struck a deal to show reruns of "seinfeld."

hulu is co-owned by disney comcast, and 20th century fox. amazon and yoo hoo also bid and lost on the "seinfeld" reruns. you wonder what mr. seinfeld makes. brendan: that noise you hear is the death knell for late night tv. that's it. that was the last of the great reruns it's over. tom: it's amazing how that's moving at light speed right now. this is important. there's one thing that is certain. this will be the most important interview this year, for that matter, for your lifetime, because you and i haven't got continue done. it's not news that america is woefully underfund r funded for retimplete a phone book of hopes and dreams has failed. what is news is no one should be surprised. i will editorialize. they are flat out the best research on your and my and brendan's failed retirement. with us as well, fred lane of

raymond james. i am so thrilled to have you on the show. what portion of america can't retire right now? is the number really near 80%? >> our estimates show that about 50% of today's working families aren't going to be able to maintain their standard of living once they stop working. tom: when you speak to someone, say, like president obama or a key senator, what is your number one talking point about the urgency to change policy? >> we have to change a lot of policies. we need to fix social security. we need to make our 401-k system work a lot better. there are steps that can be taken to do that. we need to cover the uncovered and we need have people recognize that their house is a major retirement asset. tom: this is something critical, brendan, within the research at boston college. is it a marginal fix or is it

a blowup the system? >> no, it's not a blowup the system. we have a recent book out that says we can fix all this stuff within our current financial infrastructure, which really makes it a feasible thing to do. brendan: what should be the shape of a 401-k for nonsalaried workers? that seems to be something the administration is pushing right now. alicia: i mean, the 401-k covers both salaried and nonsalaried workers. what you need is automatic enrollment so everybody is in. you need automatic explanation and default rates, so if you put people in at 3% contribution rate that she needs to go up over time. we need to cut down on the leakages in the 401-k system. we need to cut down on fees, and we need to figure out some way for people to take their money out of 401-k's, because we don't know what they're going to do with their money when they get to retirement. brendan: how do we cut down on

fees? competition should have taken care of that, but it hasn't. alicia: it's improving a little bit, but i think we need to move away from actively managed stock and funds for 401-k's, for tax-preferred vehicles just use index funds. if we can get those down to 5, 10, 15 basis points, it should be a very good exercise. tom: we have fred lane here. are we going to shift from active management where you make a modest fee? fred: that's already happening, and it should be happening in taxable accounts as well as nontaxable accounts, so qualified accounts. i think it's a responsibility to the investor industry to do that on behalf of its constituencies. i wanted to ask alicia the question when you say that there's going to be a reduction in standard of living 50% of the retirees, is there any granularity, any detail you can give us about how big that drop

is going to be? because obviously, you know, we certainly want to have retirees continuing to consume spend, and drive the economy. how much of a drag is that going to be? alicia: it's going to vary by income level. it's much more serious and the drop is bigger for lower income families. and that's so for higher income families. but even higher income families are going to find that they really have to pull back. so it's going to be really a shock, i think for a lot of people who worked over an entire lifetime and thought that they could have a comfortable retirement. tom: i know brendan greeley wants to jump in here. how much did we put aside, 15% as sort of the tithing number? my guess is we got to put aside a lot more money, right? alicia: really depends when you start. einstein was right. compound interest is really powerful. if you start early, you can do with about 10%.

but the problem is most people don't even think about retirement until they're in their 40's and 50's. at that point, if you're also going to try to retire at 62, you need to save huge amounts. so the other aspect of this whole thing is we need to get people to work longer. brendan: is the 401-k the right vehicle, and do we need to make it available to everybody who draws a paycheck? alicia: if we were designing things from start, i don't think we ever would have designed a 401-k. this is supposed to be a supplement air plans. brendan: that's terrible news. alicia: but we're stuck with it. i don't think it's realistic to tell the financial services industry to rip it up and start something else. we need to make that work well, and then we need to provide some sort of coverage for those who don't. if you take a snapshot at any moment in time, half of private sector workers don't have any employer-provided plan at all. that's really serious. tom: alicia, within the common sense of your wonderful website, i can't convey the value of what the doctor is doing at boston college.

within that, what is holding our politicians back from sound solutions on something that affects each and every american? alicia: i really find it astounding. i mean, if you just start with the basics, we've known we had to fix social security. we've waited, you know -- we're waiting for 30 years before we do anything. the 401-k fixes, i mean, it's such a simple change to say, if you're going to have 401-k you have to automatically enroll everybody. but the financial service industry argues against that. there's always some vested interest that comes in for even marginal things. i don't understand why we can't have legislation that has automatic 401-k's for those who are not covered by the employer-sponsored plan. this is not rocket science. this is really simple. brendan: we have fred lane with another question. fred: i was going to ask how much does the healthcare

problem, which actually eclipses the retirement savings problem, how much does that impact the retirement issue? because obviously it's people spending more and more out of pocket for healthcare, even if it's only a portion of that expenditure, that impacts retirement savings and ultimately impacts our economy. alicia: that's exactly right. what we have here is a mismatch between the resources that we have available to us and our needs. our needs are different by the fact we're living longer. we have much longer retirement span, and the fact that we have high and rising healthcare costs, and that we have this long-term care issue at the end of life that people are very worried about and that is generally uninsured. tom: doctor, thank you very much. alicia munnell is from boston college. come up, the single best chart to address the day. it is fed day with our coverage this afternoon. we will look at the re all the of janet yellen at the zero bout.

it's a killer chart, a killer chart. stay with us. futures negative. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," i'm tom keene. brendan greeley with me. let's do a single best chart. boring, boring boring, but

what's really about a great moderation back to volker and down we go. sometimes it's great to go back to square one on economic theory on a fed day. brendan, it's real simple. down we go here was a great disinflation but moderation, great stability, everybody thinking this was a series of 47 consecutive economic conferences over how smart everybody was. here's the reality of oops, we screwed up, at the zero. brendan: i've never understood why the zero bound is a fortress. we've looked at this before. we pulled it up, and it actually predicts did you negative. but we are so scared of beyond here that we haven't gone negative, but we're still forced into negative territory whether we like it or not. tom: there's a tool box to get underneath this but we're stuck there, unlike certain other banks. and this is just again, it's like the foundation of the

debate today and on september 17. brendan: one of the things we're watching is different banks and organizations get comfortable with the idea of being below the zero bound. in the last month, you had a conference of danish bankers trying to figure out what happens when interest rates go negative. how do you write mortgages and do the basic things? how do you greek finance once you get down there? tom: fred lane, help me here. denmark is a smaller society. this is a real big difference between -- you were mentioning eastern europe yesterday, leading with some of the greece debate. these are smaller -- brendan: you're right about that. so usually what when we talk about social policy, there are things that work for denmark but not the rest of the world. these are attached to the e.u. that has to keep a pay. that's its problem right now. tom: well, there it is, single best chart to get us started. we will do that in the next hour. we'll get wisdom and

perspective on negative interest rates. of course, the former fed governor double-barreled randy with tom of r.b.c. capital markets. he's made a cottage industry of looking at wage inflation or the lack thereof. kroszner and porcelli in our next hour. good lineup. brendan: this is in indonesia supporters of the filipino lighting candles in front of riot policemen. there's an extraordinary thing going on right now in indonesia. the new president or prime minister, i can't remember which, has really made a point to move forward the execution dates of the foreign drug traffickers in indonesia. mary jane veloso was actually spared at the last minute, but she was the only one to be spared. there were eight people sentenced for execution and seven were, in fact, executed. tom: what's the level of uproar in australia, where i believe two of the seven were from?

brendan: they're recalling their impasse domplet indonesia has always had a policy of all friends, no enemies, and they're moving away from that. they're making strategic choices on who their friends and enemies are, and it has been a problem in their relationship with australia. ok, number two, in antarctica, source of a red river known as blood falls -- tom: this is not the wall in "game of thrones?" brendan: this is not. this is iron oxide leaching through a salt river, if i understand correctly running through the glaciers in antarctica. there's also some sort of bacteria in there. tom: yeah, my puny brain would get me there. brendan: it was attached to a helicopter which is totally awesome flowing over the antarctic. all right, here's the number one photo. on the left is tom keene in london. a police officer poses with royal baby fanatics outside st. mary's hospital. duchess kate middleton now

several days past her due date with whom, tom keene? tom: william. is that a quiz? brendan: today marks a couple of anniversaries. they're expecting their second. i might add, by my fourth wedding anniversary, i had three. they are amateurs. tom: there they are. this is exciting. do we know if it's a boy or girl? brendan: no, but you can get odds on how much the child is going weigh. most likely, eight to nine, i think. tom: and this is like any moment? brendan: i mean, don't you know about this? do not pretend you do not care about the royal baby. tom: farrow & ball has middleton pink named after kate, a beautiful pink, like her outfit she was just wearing. brendan: coming up next -- after nepal's earthquake, what comes next in rebuilding? we talk with carol stern of unicef on the task ahead. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. the euro punches through a 110. stronger euro defying the parity. weaker dollar over the last number of days much let's get to our top headlines. brendan: the bloomberg

terminal, the greek finance minister says he was attacked at an athens restaurant. he says protesters threw glass objects at him and his wife. they were not hurt. the tackers were described as hooded anarchists. hillary clinton has competition. vermont senator bernie sanders plans to seek the democratic presidential nomination. people familiar with this plan say he will make an announcement tomorrow. he isn't independent but caucuses with the democrats. and an ipad glitch delayed a few dozen american airlines flights. pilots said their screens went blank before takeoff. the airline doesn't know whether the problem is with the apple gear or with its own software. ain't that always the way. those are your top headlines. tom? tom: unbelievable. looking forward to the next hour. randy kroszn and randy percelli will join us.

kroszner negative interest rates in the next hour. e.u. breakup risks are there. brendan greeley way up to speed on this. we'll look at this as well. and then wage growth, tom porcelli on his own developed cottage industry. america's lack of wage growth, we will look at that in the coming hour. brendan? brendan: nepal now now rebuild. it's almost too early to talk about this without a full body count, but the finance minister says the recovery costs will be over $10 billion. to give you a sense of perspective, that is half of nepal's $20 million economy. it is smaller than all 50 u.s. states t. ranks as asia's second poorest country. joining us now is the president and c.e.o. of the u.s. fund of unicef. caryl, it's hard to know where to start with this. but one thing that i have been noticing in the news reports is that nepal given its geography, is getting a lot of

this from china and india. does that mark a shift? caryl: it's interesting, because for us at unicef, we preposition supplies. we're on the ground and ready to go when the emergency hits, so we're not dependent on any other country to supply us. but clearly geography dictates. you know, when haiti happened, you saw a lot of supplies coming out of south america for the same reason. brendan: do we have a sense yet of the scale of this disaster? news reports say we don't even know yet. caryl: we often don't know. geography and topography make it even harder. you don't know who's in the mountain. you know it takes a long time. birth registers are different. you don't know the population in totality. so it will take a number of days before you really know the full-scale of what went on there. tom: give us an update. every kid had the little unicef box and you went door-to-door and people put jefferson

nickels in it, and if they were rich water quarters. are you still doing that? caryl: absolutely. we still do the trick-or-treat. it was the original kid helping kids t. still goes o. we have a new one too. tom: then help us. this little thing is something new? caryl: this is the next one, where kids are challenged to get active meet the goal. for every 2500 steps they take, our sponsors release micronutrients to a starving child around the world. tom: i go back to the charity exhaustion we have. we have rock concerts and all that stuff. how did the money get to the people that we see in those images? give us confidence that if fred lane ponies up x amounts of dollars, he's going to see it go to those children. caryl: first thing, i want to challenge anyone, look at charity navigator, look at better business bureau. tom: they're legit?

caryl: they're legit. we don't control them. but additionally, in the wake of an emergency, they're on the ground. they have a system in place, because you want immediate response. and who has the buying power? who is large enough to actually know what they're doing, have the experience, and have the networks get it done? brendan: it does seem like india has been a huge force already. they have helicopters that are airlifting supplies. can you give us the sense of where we are and what happens next? what is the time line of recovery? caryl: so first of all there is a country plan. for every country in which the united nations and others work, there's a country plan. there's actually a pyramid, and somebody sits at the top, and there's a cluster system. so that when the emergency hits, we're not faced with, what do we do? we know what we're going to do. brendan: there is a nepal plan? caryl: there is a plan, so unicef does some obvious things. we take lead on child

protection, but we're also for whatever reasons, we're the plumbers. we do water and sanitation. tom: where do you get your blankets? something as basic as a blanket, how does unicef get blankets? do you bid on them? caryl: we have a warehouse in copien haguer and otherway house around the world, but the primary one is there. we have prepositioned all of that already. we will obviously, we have unicef basis on average 200 emergencies a year. so clearly the needs grow, and we will go out and procure in the wake of an emergency. so right now, for example people can say, what do you need? what do we need mostly? we need you to have faith that the people on the ground know what they're doing. they really need cash more than anything candidly, because it costs more to send the supply than to procure the supply. that's our needs. tom: thank you so much. please come back when there is not a crisis. greatly appreciate you this morning. fred lane, as always, thank you, particularly with alicia munnell of boston college this

morning. let me look at a forex report. the euro stronger. the yen stronger. i'm going say the euro is stronger is where i would put it. sterling on a tear. brendan greeley and i cannot afford hair rod's this morning. stay with us. ♪

tom: it is fed day with markets focused on december 16. ken janet yellen dash cam janet yellen lead us out of the great distortion -- can janet yellen lead us out of the great distortion? twitter, we learn, is now on facebook. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom keene and with me brendan greeley. time warner, i have no idea where they fit in with the mayweather-pacquiao fight. they've got $1 billion cash critically they have affirmed next year. brendan: i have the breakout numbers $1.4 billion.

we do know that hbo has been taking a victory lap based on it content lately. hbo is one of the best at adapting to the new -- tom: oh, come on. you act like you are on the conference call. let's move on. just because -- jeff you give with the serious conference call. brendan: it was a tense start to the night in baltimore. police used tear gas to disperse the crowd that ignored a 10:00 curfew. in the end, though, it was relatively peaceful. the riot erupted in the wake of a funeral of a black man who died in police custody. president obama criticized the rioters and the violence. president obama: there is no excuse for the kind of violence we saw yesterday.

it is counterproductive. when individuals get crowbars and start crying open doors to loot they are not protesting. brendan: still there is love and community in the charm city. many showed up yesterday and began cleaning up glass and broken debris. meanwhile, the baltimore orioles will begin to play -- will play their game today in an empty camden yards. the stadium is being closed to the public and the home series this week has been moved to tampa. the death toll in the quake in nepal has now exceeded 5000. it will only go up. admit they do not know what the devastation is like in remote villages. some villages in the high himalayas can only be reached by helicopter. medical facilities are being described as overwhelmed.

speculation is now in. in -- how will the supreme court vote on same-sex marriage? chief justice john roberts directed the bulk of his method -- of his questions at same-sex marriage proponents. chief justice roberts: you say, join the institution, but the argument on the other side is that you are seeking to redefine the institution. nearly every definition defines marriage as the union between a man and wife. brendan: justice kennedy will likely be the pivotal vote. kennedy also said the definition of a marriage has been with us for millennia. it would be difficult for the supreme court to say we know better. twitter has fallen short of promise results. they cut their forecast after

first-quarter revenue missed estimates and shares fell 18%. costolo fail to see the slowdown and he promised that new features and services were starting to pay off. over to you. tom: the pop and ceremony at the white house last night, this was something, with a little glitter makes it. the president and the prime minister of japan at a state dinner. after george tokai had been to a dinner there and he said it was steeped in japanese history. brendan: i think you and i are the two worst people in america to be attempting this. tom: there is sierra. let me do a morning break for you. first-quarter gdp will be

subpar. at 10:00 a.m. this morning, pending home sales will be with us. and in the fed decision at 2:00 p.m. look for full coverage of that this afternoon. we have a surveillance on time warner. and march madness took precedence in their bragging paragraph over game of thrones. brendan: you have a problem. tom: 18 million people they did on one of their shows. it is fed day, but not june 17 september 17 or december 16. fed day to day will be reportedly boring which is an important time to recalibrate an important conversation with thomas for sally of rbc markets. -- thomas for sally of rbc markets. when you went into the eccles

building and you went in there with greenspan, bernanke whoever, did you go into like game seven game day when it was a big decision and a day like today was just ok, what am i having for lunch? guests: it seemed like every day was a big day when i was there from 2008-2009. it seems like there was more about the open mouth operations as opposed to the open market operations. tom: is it open mouth operations right now? are beginning to much for the -- from the fed? randall: i have not been there in years. how much are we missing will reread the notes of what is actually going on?

randall: those are the real transcripts and those are the words that are actually being said. tom: we have been at the rebound since time began. -- at the zero bound since time began. what is the effect of this inertia force of just staying low forever? guests: i don't think it is a fair conversation to talk about how hurt the consumer is. at the end of the day, how can super continue to propel the ecco -- to propel? as it relates to the bigger picture, look, i think we know what happened when the fed stayed low too long back in the 2004-05 episode.

particularly deadly -- dudley has been a big boys in that regard. tom: dudley has been tiptoeing carefully. frame who dudley is for janet yellen. randall: he is the money was a good handle on the market, a special relationship to the market being here in new york. that is very useful and valuable information for making decisions. tom: it is amazing how he tiptoed. tom: one of the things i think is interesting was that may yellen came out and said nothing

and maybe was a little more dovish. hopefully something we can explore over this hour is, why that shift? why were they trying to push those expectations? people of put out a lot of reasons, but i think they are all easily beat down. i think that is something we can hopefully explore over this hour. these expectations have shifted out so significantly. brendan: randall rosner let's shift for a while. you have now said that there have been two rounds of ecb notes. are you getting something out of them? randall: there are more voices around the table and it helps to frame the debate more clearly. you can see what people are actually saying. tom: what part are rosengren and rocker?

they went to high school together. they are as far apart as you can get. how far apart are they? randall: they are a little mars and venus. but that is important to have these different ideas on the table. tom: we will continue this discussion on mars and venetian economics. what is the fix for america's retirement crisis? we will get in on all of our media conversation with alicia vernell in an hour or so. what is the fix for america's retirement crisis? stay with us. ♪

tom: we are looking at a view that agrees with chicago economics. this is a keynesian, saltwater view. brendan: my morning must-read comes from across the great saltwater, from the financial times. that was a terrible transition. tom: that is ok. brendan: this is a rather

self-serving op-ed from richard allen. but i think there is a kernel of truth in it. european integration threatens business full -- european disintegration threatens business. facebook, tom, is headquartered in ireland. i'm going to ireland today. the common market was created to do exactly this, to live you have -- to allow you to have one market for all these things. pay is being negotiated for the first time along internet openness. which is, if you actually direct regulatory barriers in your own country, that can see -- be seen as trade restrictions. at these trade barriers go down and consumers go after facebook

in their own way, you are starting to see barriers go back up. tom: is he talking in his book? brendan: of course he is. tom: that is fair. what are the potential consequences other than everyone uses facebook? are they going to go after facebook like they go after google? brendan: of course, facebook is going to make it harder for smaller companies to start up. and of course facebook is deeply concerned about smaller companies. you see all the boring work of lowering regulatory barriers because of the political problems they are having. randall: i think the real issue is greece. greece is small economically but it potentially mean something about governance within your the bigger europe -- within the bigger europe. it is small but the issue of

governance is the real issue. brendan: i think he is right and we should be talking spreads instead of politics. tom: politics is part of the can -- the discussion. an important conversation this afternoon, talking about top questions -- tough questions. richard castillo, dick costolo rather on bloomberg at 3:00 p.m. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. porcelli tom -- tom for sally has aged onset as we have gone to 2%. brendan: officials seized hundreds of weapons and said they plan to attack -- planned

to attack where hundreds of residents live. saudi king salmon has replaced the crown prince and the defense minister and has also made his son second in line to the throne. and to terms -- two describe how people learn about the world. nearly half of web users learn about events from facebook. people are more impatient on small screens than a desktop. tom: please, let's look forward. u.s. gdp will discuss a subpar first quarter and is better than good view going forward. a poll shows wall street is miserable.

i know that will be exclusive. and then brendan in a conversation, the economics of same-sex heritage at the supreme court -- same-sex marriage at the supreme court. i said george tokai was of star wars, and of course i mispronounce that. it was star trek. i'm getting grilled by that right now. sierra went out with the quarterback of seattle. my level of ignorance is out of control. thank you for pointing that out. brendan: it is pronounced like the mountain range, still like something else. tom: on wages, someday, labor will get its fair share. what is fair is that -- is the debate. there is no debate. tom porcelli has made a cottage

industry of wage analysis at rbc capital markets. i will be blunt. it isn't bad news, is it? tom p: i would argue that it is just not happening what people want it to happen. wage pressures are building and i would further argue that way just properly measure, we're actually seeing some modest of growth. tom: and we're starting to see some signs of jobs for higher. brendan: let's step back for a second. if you have to find it in the beige book, it ain't there yet. randall: i would disagree with that because i would argue that it is actually there. -- tom p: i would disagree with that because i would argue that it is actually there. it is hard for me to say i love

an idea that is my own. that is to say, if you look at job openings we know where they are by category and we further note where the wages are for those categories. what you actually see is the run rate is moving at a faster clip than aggregate wages. it's all in the context of the anecdotes that we continue to pick up. tom: nicely set and a nice vector analysis. can a fed institution get out in front of these improving vectors? or is your fed a reactive institution? randall: i have not been fed for a number of years. tom: i'm calling in your fed. we are looking to you for answers. randall: i'm used to that. trying to make policy through the front window of the car

rather than the rearview mirror all you have are data from the past and those data are almost always revised. you don't even know where you have been and you don't know where you are going. trying to do your best with the forecast and it's hard to get it right. tom: this is the heart of the matter, brendan. even in a boring day they have to get out front. brendan: what i meant to try and say is what is in the beige book is a shoot. when it shows up in the data, if the flour and we can look at it will stop at the terrible metaphor -- look at it. that is a terrible metaphor. can we actually see the pressure be felt and raise wages for a little bit? randall: for lack of a better -- tom p: for lack of a better phrase, here's what she actually said. she said weight pressures can start to lift up for us. let's concede there are some nation signs -- nascent signs of wage pressure.

it is nascent at best. if that is true that is a precondition and monetary policy works with a significant lag then you are not supposed to respond to things that happen yesterday or today. you are supposed to be responding to things that will happen tomorrow. tom: this goes to alan krueger a professor at princeton. when you look at america, are there to america as with a bimodal distillation of wage inflation? or can you bundle it all together? randall: you have to look at the different pieces. fed policy is typically something that is aggregate not specific to particular areas or sectors. that is one of the challenges when you may have different things going on within the economy. the fed policy is a national policy, not local stop brendan: we have -- not local. brendan: we have a bloomberg

exclusive. i have a wager with them on whether jonathan ferro caucus will still be the finance minister of greek -- of greece. there is a possible replacement. coming up, we will look at why people on wall street are so miserable. ♪

tom: time to go into the bloomberg terminal and it destroy randy krasner --randy krozner and the bloomberg terminal.

krasner joined the fed on this day. but seriously tom porcelli of rbc capital markets, help us out. we just haven't made it back to the better time of the 1990's. tom p: we could spend a full hour talking about why that is the case. one thing we have been thinking about for quite a while, it's a paradigm -- parallel -- it's a paradigm shift from today. credit is not easy for individuals to obtain, and not only that, as things become a little easier for them to get it, they are not demanding it. there is incremental growth. tom: the real economy and immigration, a lot of this good time was point the about population growth. do you worry that we don't have the population growth to give us that move forward? randall: i'm glad you are focused on that, because the gdp

is the number of hours worked and if you have fewer people coming into the labor force, he will have lower gdp growth. i'm not sure it is all my fault. [laughter] one of the reasons we are looking at hours worked is that women entered the labor force editor and point and then that peach. is it possible that we are looking at who works and how much they work and what the balance should be? randall: that is one way of thinking about it, but there are a lot of other things they going to people being happy and it running time with your family and doing things that are not generating income, but a lot of fun, that is fine. tom: let's get to our top headlines this morning. randall kroszner on -- brendan: randall kroszner on generating fun. there was a show of force

overnight in baltimore. police did use tear gas to break up a group of about 200 that had ignored the 10:00 curfew. they said their strategy was successful. >> after the curfew when a, we had about 10 total arrests. we do not have a lot of activity or movement throughout the city. the curfew is, in fact, working. brendan: one sign of recovery people were sleeping of glass and picking up debris in an area where stores and cars had been burned. and moments ago, president obama announced on steve harvey's morning radio show that he might possibly visit also more soon. he added that the police department showed appropriate restraint week. that would be huge. meanwhile, and all aid -- a nepal aid organization said the death toll is now over 5000 and

there are -- reports of rising in places where supplies are low. secretary kerry is in the home of an iranian diplomat. he met at the new york resident ce. failing to complete a treaty would be a missed opportunity, the iranian just glad sets. -- iranian diplomat said. quite a year and a half ago the president was calling for engagement based on new cool -- mutual respect. now we have this opportunity that has been given both to us and the iranians and the community by the iranians to engage. brendan: you can watch the full interview tonight on bloomberg television. former president clinton is in

africa. the new york times story suggested that hillary clinton helped a canadian finance or get a lucrative deal in kazakhstan after he donated to the clinton foundation. a very tangled web there. money executive frank destruct denies any wrongdoing. tom: hulu to announce its biggest programming acquisition in history. the wall street journal said the online video site has struck a deal with wind felt. hulu is co-owned by disney and comcast. 20th century fox said amazon lost out here. this is a big deal, isn't it? let me do a data check here right now as i mentioned the 10 year yield through 2%. the two year yield up

fractionally. oil not doing much. 1.10 gets your attention as we move away. i noticed the pound sterling at 1.5358. sterling on a tear. brendan: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm brendan greeley with tom king. -- tom keene. the headline most wall street is our miserable because they got they would make a lot more money. collect the headline is, without we would earn more. this is financial professionals, traders and bankers and so forth. we asked them, are you earning more now or less than you

expected when you decided to take a career in finance and lost sidedly they said less. tom p: do you have the broken down by age? robert: we do. we can give him the long form version he can just read. it is more of the younger people, but not exclusively that. it's across the age spectrum. there are two ways -- brendan: there are two ways to look at this. we could start playing america's tiniest violin about this. but tom porcelli the place to your question. there are different generations on wall street and those are tied to different risk appetite. tom p: if you were to ask the older guys on our desk, and probably true anywhere, a lot of

them pine for the good old days. guys like me, i guess i never really knew what the good old days were. i would argue these are the good old days. robert: i think the poll showed that they don't think the good old days are coming back. we asked about the different areas and the part that jumped out at me was 18% that they think could collapse in a crisis. i hope that's just a glib answer , because that's a really big number for a collapse. tom: let's go to the giant in your institution. all of this is behavioral. at the end of the day, it's about being in finance and studying under tough kroszner professor -- tough professor kroszner. what are you seeing move in a animal spirit ? randall: the largest of the

duration students is entrepreneur ship manatt finance. -- is entrepreneur ship, not finance. brendan: you think the future holds -- the group that seems to think the future holds growth is at 7%. that seems more depressing and more significant. tom: tom, i don't want to put you in a tough position, but you are at the world bank of canada. -- royal bank of canada. i don't want to speak for your executives, but isn't it at an advantage to work for rbc and attract people to canada and a better wall street? tom p: i think it is. i am basically an example of this. my mom basically said, here are the keys -- my bath basically

said, here are the keys to economics, have at it. you actually want to go down that path to some extent because it is more stimulating. tom: very quickly here, you look at the studs on wall street, the people that people talk about every day. how did the hedge fund guy fair? robert: he fared almost as well as warren buffett. we gave them a list of well-known investors to choose from. warren buffett 35%, ray kelly l 15%. tom: what about the idea of the three-year delay, delay compensation? robert: that is not something we asked about, but that's fine. tom: this is a really sobering poll. let me do a twitter question here going across one of our themes of bloomberg surveillance

this morning. america's retirement crisis. what is the fix for america's grossly underfunded retirement? tweet us. there is no cost. ♪

tom: good morning everyone.

yields move, the 10 year yield 0.23%. that starting to get my attention. brendan: yesterday, the supreme court heard about same-sex marriage, with two issues on a table, whether states have to issue license is for same-sex couples, and whether they have to recognize marriages performed in other states. proponents say there would be big economic benefits. good morning, david. what is the right way to look at this from an economic standpoint? david: it is hard to say and difficult to quantify. more people would be paying taxes as married couples. as the merit among us know that can be advantageous and is in -- and in the this is begich. -- and a disadvantage.

those who look at this found that if this were to be legalized nationwide, we could see a deficit cut by about $500 million per year. it's not a cure-all. brendan: that's genius. it's very hard to make this comparison. but if you look back at immigration in the american south. atlanta became a business help in part -- a business hub in part because georgia was quicker to this than others were. david: it's funny that you bring this up. i am from north carolina and i remember when the amendment was passed to recognize marriage as between just a man and woman, many companies in charlotte were worried it would be hard to recruit people to charlotte.

many multinational companies were worried about what that would do to their presence in those states. brendan: the idea is no longer a novelty. i remember reading an article 10 years ago by wilmington and something they called the pink dollar. the economics of this are very important. and it's something -- david: and it's something we have heard from many proponents for many years. weddings are important, of course. it's something people spend a lot of money on and it could add to revenue. tom: in your coverage, how was the debate yesterday different than at that same moment two years ago? david: so much has changed, as brendan mentioned, 37 states have legalized. there has been his watershed. and we heard yesterday from the justices of the record is that is still playing out and there is reluctance on their part to get ahead of that at that keep genuine. brendan: david, we appreciate

it. tom: our twitter question today again, thank you for the huge response we see on this question. particularly from alicia from boston college, was the fix for america's retirement crisis? it is something peter orszag has told -- has talked about for over a decade. that is our twitter question what is the fix for america's retirement crisis? ♪

tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance on this sad day. don't forget all of our coverage at 2 p.m. this afternoon. brendan: australia is expressing outrage over the execution of two of its citizens in indonesia. they were among eight that died by firing squad. this was over drug charges. the australian prime minister called the executions cruel and unnecessary. bernie sanders plans to seek the democratic nomination. people familiar with the plan say he will make an announcement

tomorrow. he is an independent, but caucuses with the democrats. and pilot on a few dozen american airlines flight said there tablet screens went off. they don't know if the problem is with the applecare or their own software. -- the apple year or their own software. tom: u.s. gdp preview, a first look at this sub 1% number. i believe this an invisible 1%. just a first look. and in twitter front and center. what a busted business plan. and him forget mr. costolo with bloomberg television at 3:00. and the arts mystery of global wall street, well, at least for this moment. how will nations adapt and what is the in syria times calculus of moving negative rates through

0% to positive and then someday beyond what the new normal normality will be. they involve simple, pure math. thomas porcelli of rbc and randall kroszner one of the foremost professors. how do you go from a german rate to zero -- from a negative rate 202 something positive to instability -- from a negative rates to zero to a positive rate to instability? how do you do that smoothly? randall: there will be some balls on the road. the key is, expectations moving. if they move rapidly, that is when you get disruptions. if they can be managed very

gradually, there is less likely to be disruption. tom p: can you manage those expectations, though? tom: that is where i was going. do we go back to a greenspan measured where they are doing of thing they can to contain those forces? randall: it is unlikely to be at a pace that is measured. that is not something that everyone is comfortable with that they had done during that timeframe. but it is much more difficult to convey. for a pastry measured, then you know 25 basis points per meeting, and that is simple -- for a case to be measured, then you know 25 basis points per meeting, and that is simple and easy. but it is much more difficult for the fed to do that. tom: tom porcelli jump in here. tom p: i would like to switch gears, but keeping in the realm

of policy. one of the obvious questions that i would think anyone would want to ask you if if you were still at the fomc, would you want to lift rates in june, or would you be of the mind of later in the year? randall: i think for the risk of trade-off, i could see waiting a bit. we have not seen the pressure of inflation yet. it may be coming but it hasn't been manifest yet will stop -- manifest yet. there is still a long way to go for they were markets to liberalize. i think we are seeing much softer economic numbers. we will get the gdp numbers later this morning. i am in a kind of wait and see type of mode. tom: how does this go back to the distortions that are out there? brendan: that is what we have been talking about. are the margins ever going to be the way they were or is there just a big pile of money in the world that is still there driving interest rate down? randall: sure that is what

quantitative easing is about providing about more in the banking system so rates stay low. in principle, that should help make it easier for people to afford homes, to refinanced mortgages, and for firms to be able to invest. brendan: but i would argue that he on what the central banks are doing, there is just a lot of savings in the world. there's this rate martin wolf column from a month ago saying that the central bank are just eight on the treadmill. they are following the money, not driving the money. randall: the fed has been talking about this for a long time and we been talking about the global savings glut. that is still there. very high savings in china and that came into the world economy. higher savings in the world economy than there had been before. you've got supply and demand, a lot more supply of savings than there had been before. and because there is uncertainty, less demand. tom: this goes to the microeconomics of the fed decision. tom porcelli what are the

economics -- the microeconomics that this fed faces as they look at june and then september tom p:? we actually -- and then september? tom p: we recently had to look at the call and then throw in a talent say, ok, september. you don't wind forecasting contests on moral ground. tom: no, we leave that to chicago. tom p: [laughter] what i would say is this, there's a practical thing missed in all of this. from june to september, who cares? it makes a difference from a macroeconomic perspective. the difference between june this year to next year, yes, that is massive. which is why i come back to this idea, what changed within this fed within a very small window

to get them to push back on a very small window? randall: i think the markets may have gotten a little ahead of themselves in some promise about june. june was on the table, but that never meant they would move. they are always data dependent. and we have seen a lot slower economic numbers in the last few months. tom: maybe we should do this every six weeks. brendan: why not every week? tom: it's littered channel. -- the nerd channel. brendan: i'm going to circle back around. they better circle -- serve me whiskey as i get on the plane. negative rates, return on savings, return on savings to retirement. that was our twitter question of the day. time to answer. what is the fix for america's retirement crisis? 90% of each america's -- age of

americans savings is accumulated in the last 10 years of their lives. we need to be more honest with ourselves about end-of-life care. these are hard questions to answer. the second answer, as hard as it is to swallow, work. i don't know if i agree with that. plenty of people are working. tom: only part of america can do that. brendan: last one. double down on my lottery ticket. tom: i'm actually cash positive. i won $40 in massachusetts. brendan: $40? do you still have that? tom: no. brendan: i lost $100 at a riverboat in new orleans once when i did not have $100 to lose. cured me of gambling. tom: very quickly, gdp at 8:30 a.m.

the first look, not all that important. michael mckeon and i will turn that are part on bloomberg radio. and the fed at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. interest rates are so low, it will be interesting to see what we do at this fed meeting. and of course, we thank tom porcelli and professor kroszner for their perspectives as well. brendan: extraordinary images, camden yards will be empty tonight. it is hard to put in perspective how that -- how significant that is. it's possible to president will go there. and we will find out in the next several days that once these pictures of rising are behind us so much money went into the inner harbor in the last 20 years, but did not filter into west baltimore. how do we make that happen? tom: when are you back? brendan: tuesday.

tom: we continue the discussion. "in the loop" next on bloomberg television. michael mckee and i will be on bloomberg radio. ♪

" i'm betty liu. we're a great show ahead this morning. important numbers to watch out

for in 30 minutes. our first read on gdp for the first quarter. by all indications it could be an ugly one. we break it down with jim karen. peter's watcher on his new book. he reveals damaging details about the clintons and their donors. details in a moment. bloomberg makes a move into delivery expanding its new service called buber inc.. we have the competition -- why he thinks it is not such a big deal. here's a look at top stories. baltimore officials this morning say there were only a few violations of the city's on my curfew. police used pepper spray to disperse about 200 protesters shortly after the curfew started last night.