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tv   Bloomberg Bottom Line  Bloomberg  April 29, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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again, investors taking a look looking at the data, looking at the language, seeing when there it is that time. let's go to bloomberg chief washington correspondent peter cook. peter, good afternoon. peter: mark, the fed is not explicitly ruling out a rate increase in june, but they are acknowledging the recent weakness. the first interest rate increase, and they are a true picking that weakness partly to transitory factors, so that is something for fed watchers to consider. there is definitely new language on the economy. there was a slowing in the winter months, and the pace of job gains moderated, and the employment rate is steady. indicators show an underutilization of resources was little changed, and they also refer to witness a fixed investment softening, as well
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so they acknowledge the weakness, but they go on to say that employment slowed, and the committee continues to expect that appropriate action will continue to move forward. as is consistent with the dual mandate. inflation is anticipated to remain near the level in the near term, but the committee expects inflation to rise gradually towards 2% as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects decline, and energy and import prices dissipate. they continue to monitor inflation closely. the language in here, again, can distance to what we saw in the march statement. they said the committee anticipates it would be appropriate to raise the target rate for the federal funds rate when they see further improvement in the labor market and they are reasonably confident the rate will move back towards the objective in the median term, so, mark no
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reference to june. they are taking that off the table, but there is that condition, being data dependent going forward, but they are acknowledging the recent week this in the u.s. economy and the vote was unanimous, everyone in support of this policy statement. mark? mark: peter cook, washington correspondent, thank you. diane swonk, meg mcclellan, and bloomberg's michael mckee, ms begin with wall street reaction with julie hyman with what we just heard from the fed. julie: it depends on what you're looking at. behind me is a chart of the s&p intraday 500, and we are seeing a little bit of a takedown -- tick down.
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there are not too many surprises in here. it is acknowledgment that, indeed, the economy slowed in the first quarter. that is in there and right at the top of the statement. we already received declines going into the report, but stocks bounced up off of the lows. where we are seeing more action is in two places i want to zoom in on, and one of them is in gold, with the fed continuing to say inflation remains in check and they are monitoring energy prices and some other factors, but nonetheless, all of that saying inflation is in check, and we are actually seeing gold prices take lower -- tick lower. i do not know if we have an intraday chart of gold, as well that shows the drop we are seeing, but down about 6/10 of 1%, not a huge decline but a huge drop-off as to where it was before the statement came out. the other asset i want to
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highlight is the euro, which saw a big drop right after the statement and since that has come back to some extent, so the euro now little changed after we saw that initial drop, so again, if there is a drop in the euro, some strength in the dollar, so that is what i am seeing so far. also just imagine what we are seeing happen as far as the 10-year note, if we can take a look at that, as well, the 10-year note not seeing a huge change in the price of the 10-year, given these levels. they are pretty much in line with what we see there in the intraday chart, the 10-year yield coming down a little bit but not a huge reaction. mark? mark: senior markets correspondent, julie hyman thank you. diane swonk, julie pretty much said this was in line, but they said there are transitory factors.
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do you think that is accurate? diane: i think that is accurate. the question is how much of that weakness is transitory, and i think with the overhang in inventories that we saw, we do have a hangover for the second order, and we are not going to get quite the snapback that we saw last year. of course, we are starting from a stronger base, and it is even worse than it was a year ago. at this meeting, they are letting us know they do not anticipate raising rates anytime soon but they would like to see more labor market improvement and would still like to get some lift off this year, and i think that is the message, steady as she goes, not in june, but soon enough. mike: what in this statement makes you think that it is not going to be june, if anything? diane: they did not talk about inflation firming.
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i think they have been surprised that inflation has not come down more. it is still below what they consider to be the right target. until they can say they know for sure that this weakness is transitory and that inflation really is going to hit our medium-term target along with more labor market improvement, and i think it is going to be tough to get the data we need by june given the way they have framed this statement, along with, yes, some of this weakness is partially transitory, though maybe not as transitory as they anticipated, and i think that comes out, as well so data-driven. i think it is difficult for them to put june on the table with this data. mark: meg diane which is saying we have not seen any improvement in headline inflation but core inflation, how are policymakers going to react, going forward? meg: this is something we are watching, and the inflation rate, looking ahead, indicators
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were too low underpricing inflation risk, and as we saw recently, the inflation numbers coming in more strong, he started to see those expectations in the market picked up, and we have also seen a big inflow into the tips market, so people looking to protect but the market is reacting to that data the same way. mark: michael mckee, what are fed policymakers looking at right now? we have got growth numbers today that were 2/10 of a percent. what are they going to look at now? mike: as diane noted, it will be revised, and they are saying transitory, so what does the data tell you is going to change was to mark well as diane said, we want to watch inventories and the strength of the dollar to see if this continues to impact american manufacturing and whether oil continues -- in fact, it did not get a mention in here, but they did talk about
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investment. oil has gone back up. the dollar has gone back down so there is some evidence in here that the second quarter is going to be better. we just don't know how much yet. one of the things they will be watching for is the next federal employment numbers. they do not see any change in the utilizations of labor market resources, which is a long way of saying the jobs report was not that good in the month of march, and that is one of their criteria, continued improvement in the labor market. market: ok, roundtable, standby. michael mckee, diane swonk, and meg mcclellan, we have a market strategist joining us from atlanta. stay with us. "bottom line" coverage of the fed continues in a moment.
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♪ mark: welcome back. a finding of not guilty in a rape trial, jason lee charged with assaulting a student in the bathroom of his easthampton rental during a party in august 2013. he waived his right to a jury. welcome back to this special edition of "bottom line." i am mark crumpton. a few moments ago, the federal reserve said the market weekend, and officials will keep interest rates near zero at their next meeting in june or longer. let's get back to our fed meeting roundtable. joining us is diane swonk meg mcclellan and bloomberg news
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economics editor michael mckee, and standing by is our senior markets correspondent, julie hyman. thank you for joining us. meg, you were talking about the market reaction. you are not seeing much. meg: this was on the back of yields going up in europe and they were shorting europe, so that is what was driving the u.s. treasury market. this seems to be a nonevent from what we are seeing right now. mike: it basically comes down that we needed to have a meeting so we tried to do as little harm as possible. there it is. mark: diane swonk in chicago the gdp grew at an annualized rate at just 2/10 of 1% in the first quarter. is this rather related, or something else going on? diane: the weakness cannot be
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related to that. we have yet to see that big boost in growth associated with low oil prices stronger consumer spending. consumer spending actually held up fairly well in the first quarter, but fairly well is not what it was doing, nor what we would expect, given the decline in oil prices, even at their current level, and i think that is one of the things that that is going to be watching very closely. how are the housing market and consumer spending doing going forward as we get into the second quarter, and is the weakness more broad-based in its affect on unemployment. was it just a first quarter phenomenon or not. we could have had a 1% first quarter, and we could have said it is transitory partly transitory. some of it is more systemic. weakness abroad, a strong dollar. we are not seeing all of the benefits. marco: michael mckee, how is the
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decline in energy exploration affecting these numbers, as well? mike: we have not seen the huge layoffs, but we did see the number of layoffs, and the question is with oil prices moving back up again, how fast does it turn on? it is really hard to get a read on the overall impact on this on the economy. we may not know for a couple of years how this all plays out. mark: meg, the decline the most in two years. our households now going to be the engine that drives this momentum going forward? meg: that is what the fed hopes and when we look forward towards it, we expect those numbers to come out stronger, so we have seen a continuous pickup in terms of growth, and that is ultimately what is going to give
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those consumers a little extra gas money in their pocket, and hopefully that will pass through to some higher inflation, maybe 2016, based on what the fed is saying. mark: diane, i think you want to jump in here, as well. diane: saying that consumers were hibernating with the bad weather and being ill-equipped to deal with it. we were seeing a contraction, and this is because people were using their savings at the pump and paying back their holiday bills. it happened in march and february. we know anecdotal comments from credit card providers showed they actually picked up their credit card usage in the month of march and that does set us up very well for the second quarter, so we do think that is going to come back. is it going to be the consumer? a do have a consumer back. they are not the outlet they once were. mark: meg are we going to see
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this pickup? meg: diane will certainly be able to comment on this, but the q1 gdp report is not complete. we do not have all of the data we need. there will be revisions to this, but also activity that did not happen because of colder weather to translate into a stronger second quarter, so we have seen people come out this morning and after the q1 gdp report, saying maybe it is stronger as things push forward. mark: push forward, how long? meg: yet got consumers out spending, and all of a sudden we have got inventory buildup, and hopefully we will get clarity on the trade data once that is finalized, but the q1 gdp report could look significant lead different once we get the revisions out. mark: all right, stay with us, and we will have more on the fed and the overall economy, and coming up at two: ernie, we will get -- coming up at 2:30, we
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won't get information from pimco's tony crescenzi. our special coverage of the fed continues in a moment. ♪
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mark: welcome back. this is "bottom line" on television and streaming online and on your phone. i am mark crumpton. let's get back to our fed roundtable. meg mcclellan diane swonk and michael mckee, and standing by our correspondent, julie hyman.
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julie: as you guys have been talking about, since there were not huge surprises in this statement today, we are not seeing much of a difference from where stocks were before the statement came out. you do sometimes the a long time elapsed before reaction, and then it plays out throughout the afternoon, but it really does seem to be study in this particular case. once again, i am watching what is going on in the stock markets and not seeing a lot of action. the other asset i was watching earlier, gold prices, they did fall off, and they continue to be lower by nearly 1%, so that is more of a consistent reaction, and then as i highlighted earlier, the other asset i am watching is the euro which had stabilized earlier but is now lower by about half of 1%, and gold and euro/dollar on the more dramatic reactions, but all things considered, we are not seeing any huge movements as we look across the spectrum.
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mark: bloomberg markets corresponded, julie hyman. thank you. an audience in london was told that the world's central banks could be setting their world inflation targets too low. is there some evidence for that? meg: i think the last time we heard this was jackson hole with an bernanke in 2010. one of the things about the fed target being thought too low is he tends to be a big proponent of quantitative easing, and he thinks they should be doing more, and if you have a higher inflation target, it would certainly open the door to a more aggressive fed policy, i.e. not hiking rates and for the doves in the room, that was certainly a welcome statement. mark: diane, is there a sense
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that they could be setting the inflation target too low? diane: charlie evans here in chicago has also voiced some of those concerns, that there could be a period of catch-up inflation in the u.s. economy, allowing you to get a bit of heat behind it. they talked about it being symmetric after running too cool for a while, so it could run a little hot for a while. that said, there is not widespread acceptance of this because it is some fear they would undermine their credibility on inflation fighting, and they have worked to deal hard on that inflation fighting target that they do after target runaway inflation, that they would not want to give a hint that they would allow the economy to catch up with inflation, even though that has been part of it. mike: ben bernanke has been telling people privately there is no magic about 2%. that was sort of recognized economic wisdom, but it could be raised. it would not hurt us to raise it a little bit, but the real point
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is if they cannot get to 2% what difference does it make if they set the target at 3% or 3.5%? they have to get to 2% first and right now, policy is not stable enough to do that. mark: formally the most powerful head in the world, hired by a hedge fund, so the dell. does anyone have concerns about this? diane: they forget that when they do not work at the fed, they make a different amount of money. the further you get away from it, you can make money other ways, and this is the capitalist system at work. mike: he only made $155,000 as chairman of the federal reserve. and look what he went through. -- 150 $5,000 as chairman of the federal reserve, -- $165,000 as
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chairman of the federal, and look at what he went through. diane: it will be easier than anything he had to battle when he was at the federal reserve. mark: meg, when is the fed going to move? meg: we expect september, and we are still positive and actually prefer the u.s. treasuries versus europe. mark: all right, diane, last word. 10 seconds. when is the fed going to move? diane: looking for september. mark: all right, diane, meg michael, thank you. up next, more reaction to the pimco's tony crescenzi.
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stay with us. our special coverage of the fed continues in a moment. ♪
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mark: welcome back to the second half-hour of "bottom line" on bloomberg television. i am mark crumpton. as we always do at this time, crude oil closing, up about 2.5%, trading at 58.49. let's get to some of the other top stories we are following at this hour. japanese prime ministers shinzo abe offered condolences for the americans who died in world war ii in a historic address in capitol hill. he is the first japanese prime minister to address a joint
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meeting of congress. his speech comes as both countries mark the 70th anniversary of the end of war two. a show of force overnight in baltimore, national guard troops and police officers kept the streets calm for the most part a day after widespread looting and violence. police did use tear gas to break up a crowd of about 200. those people had ignored the 10:00 curfew. meantime, president obama says he may visit baltimore soon and as a safety measure, the baltimore orioles are playing the chicago white sox in an empty stadium. major league baseball says they believe this is the first game played without any fans, and that is a look at the top stories we are following this hour. another top story today, the fed meeting on policy. joining me is tony crescenzi, a portfolio manager at pimco. tony, welcome back to "bottom line."
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tony: thank you for having me. mark: is that this is potentially the most important part of today's statement. what risk did you see? : tony: clearly, the fed, in the first paragraph, which gives the conditions of the economy it was simply an update on what it sees with capital spending and employment and other areas of the economy, but what matters is not the first quarter or the fed outlook for the second and going forward, and the fed said the risk to the outlook on gdp economic growth and employment remained nearly balanced. in other words, the fed remains confident that its objective will ultimately be met, which is to achieve its dual mandate of full employment and inflation stable inflation, which it sees as 2%, and so that outlook means that every meeting it remains live for a possible rate hikes. june is very low off, but it is still possible.
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the fed made clear that it is very data dependent. july is positive, but september remains the most likely month where the fed will feel satisfied about the outlook staying intact as it sees it today. mark: tony, did you see any policy change in the fed stance from last month? tony: no, and given the pricing out of the september rate hike on it with dip below 50%, some were looking for it to be more dovish perhaps, for the fed to practically rule it out, but the fed once to say they do remain data dependent, so we are not changing our view and, in fact keeping the outlook in there keeping it nearly balanced -- one interesting aspect was to downplay gdp and to highlight an aspect of the report, incomes, real incomes within the gdp report very good for household because inflation readings are down, and income levels are a bit up, so that is an important
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story. the fed believes that the fed savings rate will decline going forward. in other words consumers enjoying the spring and summer months, out there spending, and recent data to suggest that seems to be a occurring, but the fed wants to see evidence of it. call it a few months of evidence, maybe that is when they pull the trigger. mark: inflation has been running below the fed 2% target for nearly three years now. tony: correct, and, in fact, six months if you look at the data. it is one of the reasons janet yellen in her march 27 speech said the fed might go slowly with respect to its hikes, because it might permit the inflation rate to move up more quickly. it was helping to more quickly achieve its objectives, so expect when the fed does hike if it does, and we expect it as
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well, jim moved slowly, so that is about a quarter point. -- it moved slowly, so that is still about a quarter point. they want to stay focused on the entirety of this and not the initial hike which could be somewhat stressful in markets for a short time. mark: tony, let me ask you a question that i posed to our roundtable a few moments ago. an audience was told that the world central banks could be setting their inflation targets too low. what are your comments on that? tony: well, keep in mind, he is a so-called dove and will tend to want to keep the fed policy rate low and stay very accommodative in terms of its stance. when we look at the fed., and it is different. -- when we look at the fed dots, it does not
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reflect the views more broadly at the fed. it does seem the fourth. what is believed to be the first three persons with the projections of interest rates. mark: you have a new coworker. pimco has hired ben bernanke as a senior advisor, and please tell us you are not going to have to leave your office. tony: it is thrilling for me. note that i am wearing my green tie on said day, the color of money -- on fed day, the color of money, and inside secret. hopefully it will help us carry out a mission which is guardians of capital and stewards of the capital markets. it is very important. we are relentless in the pursuit of performance for clients, and his presence will be waiting --weighty. mark: tony crescenzi of pimco,
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thanks so much. up next, hitting another bump in brazil. we will check in for the wednesday edition of the latin america report. that and more when "bottom line" on bloomberg television continues in just a moment. ♪
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mark: welcome back. it is time for today's latin america report, and let's go to jose who is standing by live. jose, good afternoon. jose: good afternoon, mark. there is a lot going on in brazil. one of the most powerful businessmen in the country chairman of the state owned oil company. together with the selection of board members, one week after petrobras closed about a $15
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billion in parent. the overall is the latest iv state run producer to contain losses and -- the latest state run producer to contain losses. also in brazil and order this morning to suspend activities in the country, uber, adding another country to the list where they face legal obstacles. from são paulo there was a fine of 100,000 to a maximum of 5 million if uber violates his order to stop operating. the company said they are also facing opposition from taxi drivers in other countries in the region like here in mexico and in columbia. these are the latest stories. mark: jose, with the wednesday
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edition of the latin america report, thank you. will this rally last to mark that story -- will this rally last? that story, when we return. ♪
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mark: we have an exclusive. corey, good afternoon. cory: we have learned that salesforce has hired some financial advisors after being approached by a potential acquirer. we do not know much more than that, but multiple sources have said and a choir were -- an acquirer has approached them, and now they have hired advisers to consult them on what to do next. now the stock has halted in trading at the new york stock exchange, but that is the news. salesforce has been approached by a potential acquirer and
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they are working in an attempt to figure out what to do with that acquisition. salesforce, of course, is an import company that does consumer relations management opsware that helps businesses all over the world understand who their customers are going to be, how they can track customers, and more importantly, it is a cloud-based company, where the software is rented and just as long as some but he wants to use it. the company has seen fantastic revenue growth, even though it has not turned into lot of free cash flow. they have made a lot of acquisitions himself are you it is a big employer here in san francisco. if this was to go through, it would be the largest acquisition of software. mark: all right, cory johnson editor at large, thank you. the design conference brings the business leaders together to discover how design makes the road better, smarter, cooler
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and more innovative. a founder and ceo of a couture company was one of this year's presenters, and she spoke about the benefits of hiring astronauts and rocket scientist to create the world first high-fashion high heels. guest: i loved high heels when i was young. as i got older, i started to love them less. when i left, i was five. spacex -- i was 35. there are all shiny floors, so when you are walking that floor every day, your relationship with your shoes is a very personal one. i could either downgrade my shoes and have uglier shoes or i could keep wearing my pretty shoes, but then i would end up with ugly, deformed feet, and it
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got to where this is an important in a problem in my life where i figured, don't complain, do something. in the world of fashion, i did not think rmb exists. there is nobody driving innovation in what is fueling this industry, so we really try to put together a very diverse group of people and then give them the opportunity to design from a clean sheet of paper. we have an astronaut. we have a rocket scientist. we have an orthopedic surgeon. we have a fashion scientist. this team is unlike anything anyone in the shoe industry would have. the way they forget how to make a high heel shoe several centuries ago was to start with a metal plate, put it at an angle, and build a shoe around it, but based on what we could do now, it is actually not the best idea to stand on a metal plate all day. from an engineering and design issue, it is a physics problem. what we are doing is using advanced polymers instead of
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metal structures, and the benefit of using a polymer over a mental shank -- mental shank is that you can control the stiffness. this is like a ballistic grade plastic that is super strong and the shape also does a lot as it relates to distribute a load of its body across the structure, and then everything you see around it is what is called the thermal plastic on the sort of similar to what tires are made out of. that is really what is most important. and then everything else builds around that. i think it is really important for comfortable and sexy to work together. i think the idea that they have been mutually exclusive is the problem, essentially. millions of women for hundreds of years that have been wearing sort of the same crappy internal architecture for a long time. it's sort of takes an outside force to reprioritize and say actually we think that consumers will reward this and will think it is important if we create it. mark: a professor at the
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university of california san francisco tomorrow will tell us about his innovative cancer retreatment research using nano robots. and again, our breaking news at this hour, salesforce is now trading, shares have been halted after people with knowledge of the matter told bloomberg that salesforce is working with financial advisors to help them feel the takeover offers after being approached by a potential acquirer. you can see the shares their intraday are up about 15%, trading at 77.53. oil climbs to a four-month high the room coming on a report on crude inventory, and bloomberg's alix steel is joining us in the studio. what about the inventory? alix: inventory fell, and this is significant, the first time it fell at 21 weeks. there is a huge inventory at
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about 88% of storage capacity being full, and the backdrop for this, mark, has really been a decline in the rig counts, and the idea being lower rig counts, less production, less being stored. mark: what does that mean for producers? alix: you would think, hey that would be good for producers, but there is a little peace that comes from north dakota. north dakota has long-term tax relief areas if the price of oil stays below $55 for five months. well, if oil keeps rising in may, these producers will not be getting that tax cut, which could be as high as three dollars a barrel, basically incentive although we have seen this decline in the oil price so the idea being, hey, if they do not get that tax cut, what are they actually going to do mark:? -- what are they actually going to do? mark: what about the backlog in
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natural gas? alix: we have something very similar for natural gas as well. this comes from our bloomberg new energy finance group, saying that backlog could be as high as 2400 barrels in areas like pennsylvania, west virginia ohio, and it could add about 4.5 billion cubic feet of gas production per day, we talk about the oil supply but the natural gas supply and the potential for that to flood the market has come back. mark: peaking of flooding the market, "street smart" is at the top of the hour. alix: and we want to talk about that release before the bell and also bill gross pit we will have erik schatzker bring us that interview from their headquarters. it should be a great show. shameless plug. join us. mark: "street smart" at the top
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of the hour, and after the break, more. ♪
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mark: if you are into fish or hunting, you probably know asp pro shops, a chain of stores in the united states and canada -- you probably know bass shops. julie hyman got an early look. julie: i have no idea what i am doing. let's just keep that in mind. i love that. i need some fishing lessons,
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too. i was in the right place. tell me what to do. >> there you go. julie: all right. if you teach a woman to fish, will she buy fishing poles for a lifetime? that is the goal of the outdoor sporting goods giant bass pro shops, or ambitious project, transforming a sports arena into a store that feels like a theme park. the end result is that over 535,000 square foot facility with hotel rooms, and an underwater themed bowling alley and a museum. all centered around and into a replica. >> it is entertainment, retail. that is something that has been a growing trend in the united state. julie: growth sales have got up to an estimated $3.7 billion
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annually. at the memphis store, they will do plenty of options to spend the on fishing and reindeer. they can go to an observation deck and restaurants at the apex. >> when you see this, it takes your breath away. it draws your eyes to the stock -- top, whereas you would not have seen it before. julie: most have screened in porch is that face into the store, that out into the storyline or the mississippi river. and there is the big cedar lodge. >> i want our hotel guests to have a little bit of that ozark hospitality. julie: do you have this in every room? >> we have taxidermy in every room. julie: they can interact with live critters, with catfish and
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bass and providing information about fishing and the outdoors. of course, it is all about getting visitors to buy something. >> i think the majority of the people come into the store to buy something, and if they did not, if there is something that grab their attention while they are in the store -- julie: ready to get camoed up. who knew?\ ♪ can you even see me right now? can you see me? >> this is going to be transformative for the city of memphis. very few people have been in this facility. when they come inside the store, they will get it. julie: it is the largest investment bass pro shop has ever made, reportedly $200 million. now it is time to see how it hates off. mark: julie, look, you wear
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camouflage so well. julie: it was not technically open so i could not purchase my camouflage outfit, or you would not see me sitting here. and there is a lot of taxidermy, a lot of different kind of taxidermy animals, ben i was told some people even donate their taxidermy to bass pro shops. mark: wow, julie hyman, down at the bass pro shops. "street smart" is next. i will see you tomorrow. ♪
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alix: welcome to the most important hour of the session. investors reacting to the federal reserve policy decision the fed repeating it will raise rates when it sees further labor market improvement. and the markets are vaulting over zero yields. most investors voting against. securities we will hear from bill gross and dick costolo. "street smart" starts right now. and some breaking news for you.

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