fragmented britain confronting an election. olivia stearns is running for president. today ms. three arena and dr. carson. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." it is monday, may 4. i'm tom keene. joining me, the contender olivia stearns. we have comcast writing right now. the headlines rolling out. this is after the collapse merger -- the collapsed merger. i was so disappointed. i wanted to talk about how i was going to win the gop ticket. earnings-per-share coming in at seven and cents, and we can expect to see strengths out of the broadcast business out of the film business, out of the themepark business.

basically shareholders want to know how are they going to return money to them now that they are not -- tom: something that craig moffett is talking about. they added nearly 200,000 relationships. i don't know what a relationship is. i swore at my cable provider this weekend. let's go to top headlines. after i straighten my bowtie. here is olivia stearns. olivia: two gunmen were killed after they opened fire outside an event hosted by an anti-islam organization. it featured cartoons of the prophet mohammed. that is something that many muslims consider offensive. police shot a security guard. >> police officers nearby thought -- saw what was happening engaged the two men, and shot and killed them at the scene. the security guard was taken to

the hospital and he was released. olivia: supporters of the islamic state have claimed responsibility. in baltimore, a curfew is being lifted six days after riots sparked by the death of a black man in police custody. several hundred people at a peaceful demonstration outside city hall. speakers urged protesters not to rest. maryland governor larry hogan wants people to know that baltimore is bouncing back. governor hogan: i think the curfew is a good idea. it has been a really rough week. we want to get people back to work, back to school, and back into the city. the shops were really devastated this week. olivia: national guard troops are patrolling the streets of baltimore but they will be pulled out over the next few days. two more republicans are entering the race for the white house. both are political outsiders.

carly fiorini is announcing that she is -- carly fiorina is announcing that she will be running. she is a fierce opponent of hillary clinton. and then carson has announced that he will run for the white house. he is an outspoken opponent of president obama and obamacare. mcdonald's is unveiling its long-awaited plan for a come back. it will be ceo steve easterbrook pass biggest challenge. mcdonald's has tried improving its menu by offering sirloin earners and grilled chicken. tom is waiting for smoked salmon on a nag mcmuffin. -- on an egg mcmuffin. tom: las vegas sports -- the most wagered upon fight in

history. mayweather and did the fight against mr. pacquiao. one sports book says three fourths of the bets were made on manny pacquiao. i watched. olivia: i watched. tom: olivia watched. olivia: i think he has gotten old. otherwise, mayweather would have knocked him out. tom: lots of opinions on that fight. mcdonald's with the important unveiling. i know betty lou will focus on that in the 8:00 hour. economics, as we begin an incredibly busy economic day -- factory orders out friday. politics -- dr. penn carson -- dr. ben carson will announce today. governor huckabee has plans. maybe that is tomorrow as well. we want to know about the comcast share buyback. let's do it did a check. we look at equities, -- let's do a data check.

we look at equities, bonds, currencies. the euro goes from 1.12 down to 1.11. on to the next screen, if you would, please. showing the good feeling inequities, and the euro yen was at 1.34. i will call that a churn, elevated euro. that is what the pros look at a lot. greece yields are in. that is important with the dialogue wednesday, one of our themes -- bring crude not up to 70 yet but quite a recovery for oil. let's go to the bloomberg terminal. this is the thursday weekly jobless claims, back to well before the 1970's. here is the ugliness of the 70's -- of the 1970's with the inflation. what i have done is population adjusted this for a bigger america. here is the improving trend in claims.

there is a small business next that gets in that there is a small business mix that gets in the way. we are down to a record low population claims. we are down to new lows in people walking into the office again. this is accountable statistics. olivia: how do you square that with what we saw out of march jobs reports? tom: i think the march jobs report is a one off during you want to take a three month average. all in all, it is these statistics that the optimists hang their hat on. it is quite a chart when publication -- it is quite a chart when population adjusted. the matter of the british elections -- we will have olivia stearns' important and unique feel on that, having lived there. you are saying alice? olivia: alice or charlotte.

tom: i was betting olivia. olivia: also -- tom: also, we will see if greece blanks. jim brings unusual perspective. he studied mathematics at cambridge. i want to go to the u.k. elections. you are scottish. is the scottish national party going to take ed miliband and he is not going to be able to come prime minister because scots are in the way? jim: he can only becoming prime minister as among our government with scottish national support. it would be very hard for mr. miliband to do. there seems to be a movement of the weekend of the labour party for him not to actually form a government in a minority situation and let cameron struggle on. that actually is a possible outcome. tomko totioom: to our american viewers

-- have you ever seen anything like this? you are scotland, you are the united states, united kingdom -- have you ever seen this before? jim: the closest thing is 1974 when the labor government started off with a government. they had a minority government under harold wilson, struggled through for eight months, called an election, then got an a majority. tom: the bottom line is that tony blair is not -- ed miliband is not tony blair. jim: the substance of the policies on issues like immigration in europe are not very different. the place where the substance of his policies are different are tax and benefits. it was definitely be an overly higher tax system under mr. miliband than it is under mr. cameron.

olivia co why is the government not more popular? jim: the economy should be supporting him. maybe that will come to people's decision-making when they get to the polling booth. really the issue is all around immigration. what they see as jobs, overcrowding, high prices of houses. people feel the country is overcrowded. tom: with you as the ex-pat over there, are there two englands? olivia: very much so. i once did a story on bond street in liverpool versus palm street -- versus bond street in london. the country is dealing with pockets of higher unemployment. i do not want to call it poverty, but the legacy of deindustrialization.

that is where labor gets its strength. jim: manchester is a pretty good-looking and prosperous city, whereas newcastle or liverpool are less so. it is very spotty. olivia co has been a broad-based recovery? we get u.k. inflation out later today. one of our british producers were saying that, no, just like in the u.s., it is a narrow recovery. jim: it has a large part of that. i think there is the north versus south thing. cavern -- it does not play well in the north of england. it plays even worse in scotland. then mr. miliband has lost -- tom: you were angry at me or you said he was a posh boy. no question about it. tell us about interest rates. you were the actuary, you have the mathematics degree from cambridge. what is the chimp coffinthe jim mccaughan

framework? jim: the next move is probably back to the poll. when march happened and the economy quite slowed so much -- i think the trend in jobs will be sufficiently good to justify moving off zero short-term interest rates most likely december or october. i do not think that will make much difference to bond yields. we are currently on a 10-year yield of 2.10. that feels hide to me given the economic structural issues around supply and lack of pricing power. tom: does a refined soul like you darken the door at mcdonald's? olivia: not very often, but i sort of go by them at airports and the like. tom: it is going to be a better burger. jim: in new york it is about the

competition from five guys or -- olivia: we are just getting going this monday morning. comcast reported results, boosting their share buyback. by $2.5 billion this year alone. we will see how the cable writer -- how the cable provider boosted subscribers. you can get us anywhere you get internet because it is 2015. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." yields reversed, 2.13% of the 10-year yield. that bears watching as we go through the jobs report on friday. here is olivia. olivia: police in wisconsin are

calling a shooting that left four people dead a random act. it happened last night on a bridge in my nausea. -- in minutia. the gunman is among the dead. time warner cable left at the altar by comcast but they are reportedly listening to merger ideas once again. the company has been contacted by charter communications. charter's largest shareholder is cable pioneer john malone. comcast walked away from a merger with time warner under pressure from regulators. the nba has its m.v.p.. the associated press says it's golden state warriors point guard stephen curry. an official announcement will occur later today. he led the warriors to a franchise record 67 wins this season. they currently have a 1-0 lead over the memphis grizzlies in their best of 10 memphis conference finals series. tom: it is 6:30. with jim maccoll and, with jim a

coffin -- with jim mc caughan -- olivia them as we look at euro area bank loans. this is a cool bank finance statistics, showing a recovering eu. a blistering over the weekend saying forget about the pessimism on europe. and of course, a look at politics. the republican road to 2016 to be direct, is a crowded, crammed pilgrimage as they move to the first tuesday of november. olivia: comcast just reported results a few minutes ago and the analyst estimates after signing up more internet customers, also announced a share buyback or customers will buy $2.5 billion worth of shares in 2015. i went to bring in jerry smith who covers comcast. good morning and thank you for coming in so early.

what jumps out at you from the numbers? jerry: comcast added a lot more internet subscribers. they lost he will tv subscribers, and that fits in with the broader trend that is happening in the cable industry right now. cable companies are selling more internet. comcast has more internet subscribers than cable tv subscribers. olivia: why is the future brighter for them without time warner cable? gerry: people are getting more video online, and the focus of the business is shifting right now. you still have to get your internet service from comcast so even though the number of people getting cable tv they are cutting the cord and using things like netflix and who live , you still have to sign up for internet. the focus for comcast is selling more internet service. tom: they really revert to use of cash.

x the merger, do you series the -- do you see the share buyback as stated, we are not going to do something, but reverse -- revert to the past and rely on shareholders? gerry: they are announcing their share buyback, that their balance sheet is strong. whether or not -- the fact that time warner cable did not happen, then they suggest that the balance sheet is strong and they are getting money back to shareholders. comcast has a lot of options going forward. analysts are saying comcast gets into the mobile phone business use all these wi-fi hotspots. they could look at programming deals overseas. the time warner cable deal did not happen. that was a big step back for comcast, but i think these earnings show that comcast did pretty well. i was -- tom: i was flabbergasted how

much i enjoyed pay-per-view this weekend. in five years, where is the industry you are covering in five years? talk about disruption. the whole thing is getting disruption in the trenches. you and alex sherman -- where are they going to be in five years? gerry: if you look at the trends right now, the people signing up for cable tv is starting to go down. the number of people getting internet is going up. people are going to be getting their television online. they already are, and i think that is going to continue to happen. comcast -- their business is really about broadband and selling more and more broadband subscriptions. jim: in the longer term we will have the digital capacity to bypass cable and wi-fi and hotspots. gerry: that is an interesting question for wireless companies like at&t and verizon and the 4g

service. the ability to watch video on your smart phone, on your tablet while you're on the go is an extremely exciting opportunity for these companies. tom: thank you so much. in our next hour, we will look at the interest rates, the linkage of economics. stay with us this monday morning. it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." futures up three, the 10-year yield, 2.13%. eric nielsen at unicredit wrote

that he is optimistic on europe. the european household sector is quite healthy. if only u.s. and u.k. household brand double-digit savings ratios, there would be more capital available for investment in their current account deficits would not be so large! and easily strong enough to generate a robust recovery now that the fiscal drag is over. there is grease and then there is everybody else, and everybody else is pretty good. jim: everyone else is better than they were. the weaker euro has worked wonders for europe's very large export industries, whether it is german car companies, aerospace. they are all doing really well. that put more spring in the step economically of particularly the europe -- the eurozone. having said that, i am concerned that the banks do not tip the balance sheet to continue the

credit which is necessary in order to get the economy moving. tom: why is this so hard to do in europe? why can't they clearly markets -- why can't they clearly markets like we can? jim: we had extreme monetary stimulus. it took the europeans several years to get their banker would we had fiscal assistance -- we had fiscal deficits. we had bank restructuring with the recognition of the recapitalization of the banks. that is not completed yet in europe. in other words, what has happened in europe is that they recovery play that was done in the u.s. in 2009 and 2010 is still in train. olivia: at this point the majority of investors that come on this show are always on european equities has mario draghi is still printing money and they are not worried about greece because they believe with sufficient reforms the situation

has been contained. what are they getting wrong? jim: one thing i would question is if you go further out, will qe actually work in europe? will it provide the economic stimulus, the desired? the transmission mechanism in the u.s. is obvious. it will put more money in people's pockets. that is not obviously going to happen in europe, so i question the bullish thesis. no doubt it will rise this year but it is not the issue. olivia: our single best chart is coming up, about growth in europe. ♪

er elevated this morning. the 10-year, 2.14%.

that is not where it was two hours ago. let's get the headlines with olivia stearns. olivia: near dallas, two gunman opened fire outside an event. >> a vehicle pulled up for it two men got out and opened fire on a security officer. he is dressed like a police officer. however, he is unarmed. they started shooting, and that man was shot and taken to the hospital where he was treated and has been released . officers that were close by saul what was going on, engaged the two men, shot and killed them both. olivia: there is no word on who the gunmen were and if the cartoons drawn at the contest were seen as insulting by many muslims. in the earthquake in net paul has resulted in -- in nepal has

resulted in 7200 deaths. so many large cargo planes have been flying into the kathmandu air force that the runway was damaged, so the runway was closed temporarily before reopening. no breakthrough with talks aimed at unlocking more bailout money for greece. progress was made in four days of negotiations over the weekend, but differences remain on a wide range of issues, and the government will not budge in its opposition to cutting pensions or raising the sales tax. they are saying the government should have enough money to get through next week. and the second-biggest movie debut ever -- "avengers: age of allultron" took in $187

million. the fight took in $207 million. tom: in baseball, the dreaded yankees swept the three-game series in boston for the first time in nine years. gardner a three run homer in the sixth, gave them a three-run league. they had a chance to win in the ninth bases loaded instead, a slide out to center. confounding the skeptics, the red sox's season -- turn it upside down. olivia: it was a complete sweep at fenway. tom: the season is over. there are phrases at the moment. the new normal and the new mediocre. that is not the red sox, but the economy. settling around baseline trends.

one that we witnessed is a trend from rural to urban. whether it is a push-pull theory is open to debate. there is no one insight for bigger urban areas. jim mccaughan has really put some thought into this. you and i observed this for mears -- observed this for years. thinking about series -- thinking about cities, is our movement to big cities different than 20 years ago? jim: yes, i think so. downtown new york and london were pretty sad 20 years ago. now they are vibrant with activity. silicon valley used to be the hub of technology. now you have google buses telling people -- taking people downtown from where they want to live.

tom: the area of nepal where this earthquake was is one million people. olivia: it is an international phenomenon. why has there been the polarization among the city's? everyone is trying to move across to new york city and san francisco. what about st. louis? jim: quality-of-life is the issue. quality-of-life is the issue in cities where people want to be. the cities that have done well our cities that have managed to create quality-of-life. des moines iowa, you would think is not a winning city but actually it is because they have created a vibrant downtown. olivia: are you running for the gop ticket? jim: i am not. olivia: carly for your arena -- carly fiorina and ben carson.

tom: it is said that st. louis died the day that twa's hub left. jim: people want to travel for leisure and for business. logistics is one of the downsides for st. louis. however, baltimore has logistics, but the last week has not helped the case there. many young people are thinking maybe boston is better after all. i do think that the attractions of cities will continue to be quite -- tom: how much of this goes along with macroeconomics? jim: there may be that push from other places, particularly suburban manufacturing, suburban office parts, and maybe jobs are not too good there. i think it is more of a poll.

-- i think it is more of aa pull. young people find his social environment more attractive, and they do not find it in the suburbs. it makes a big difference for real estate, for example. we have a lot of real estate investment in manhattan area the tenants we are getting now are very different than from a decade or two ago. a lot more technology, a lot more web app designers. olivia: you sent over a lot of fascinating statistics. one of the social consequences -- what are the social consequences of urbanization? jim: i would suggest that the cities are seeing a lot more young families. i do find people say to me -- olivia: young families? it is not people putting off

married -- getting married and having children? jim: it is both, actually. these people -- it is said that they would move off to the cities once they -- to the suburbs once they get married and have children. we are not seeing that. olivia: i would say it has a lot to do with safety. jim: a lot of -- a lot to do with safety. new york is one of the safest places to be now. olivia: everyone winds up staying put. jim: you see that in real estate values. one of the things that is difficult about some of these gateway cities is that they are expensive. they are expensive because people want to be there. i would argue that you want to own real estate, whether residential or commercial, or in the downtown areas that the suburbs. tom: did you see the response to our mcdonald's twitter question?

olivia: we are blowing up twitter. tom: it is unbelievable. olivia: we want to know what you think of the special sauce. as i say, tom is going out for a smoked salmon egg mcmuffin. tom: are you kidding? back to a basic burger. olivia: coming up, my favorite single best chart. the economic recovery leading to credit star businesses is finally picking up. stay tuned for today passing the best chart. this is "bloomberg surveillance," stream on your television, your tablet, your phone. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia stearns. brendan greeley is rumored to return tomorrow. olivia: today's single best chart should be called "omg: it is working." for the first time in three years, bank loans to the private sector in the euro region actually rose. that is that tiny little green bar we are showing. it rose by .1% in march. it looks like everything mario draghi is doing might actually be working. i spent years hyperventilating

over how we were going to get money going to small and medium-size businesses. tom: finally it is happening. it is a different europe, unlike america. olivia: you have to understand that the corporate world in europe is much more dependent on lending from banks. tom: your thoughts on this? jim: i am still a little skeptical that it is for real. if you look at that chart, it is close to zero in march of 2015. it was worse than -2 in march of 2014. that does not feel like -- olivia: it is the definition of a green shoot. jim: it is a start, but is it really going to be sustained? it has to go above to the extent that it went below.

olivia: is it cheaper euro, cheap gas, quantitative easing or it is the -- or is it the long-term finally kicking in? jim: i'm skeptical whether the monetary operations are really working. exporters should be able to do business better with the lower euro. i think the lower euro is a big part of it. i do not think it is really monetary operations yet. as to this point about the transmission mechanism -- i see how it works in the u.s. it does not happen in europe because it is hard if you are in an underwater mortgage to move on from it in europe. you do not have a non-resourced loans that you have in the u.s. tom: the bottom line is european talks about the transmission mechanism of any economic effect is different over there than over here.

jim: it is. that is why the same policy playbook does not necessarily work. so i am not an enthusiast of where they are going on the monetary side. i would be much more positive about the fact of having got the euro done, they can put their business in a better position. the whole liveolivia: and this buys them some time. tom: let's get to our photo this morning. we have a royal set are you. olivia: tom is a royalist. number three, boxing. floyd mayweather defeated manny pacquiao on saturday night. the fight lasted a full 12 rounds. over 850 punches were thrown. mayweather will fight again in september against an opponent tbd. tom: will they do this again? if they wait five years, they will be 45 or 43. olivia: you cannot get a bigger

billing than this, pacquiao and mayweather. do you know technically enough about what is going on that mayweather won? tom: there is no question with the people that i was around that he won. there is no debate about that. he threw like three punches at him. the photos captured it, but it was like, ok. olivia: he has got really long arms. the 141st kentucky derby kicked off this weekend. american pharaoh won. it was his third victory and second time in a row. tom: have you ever worn a hat that big? have you worn age i norma's hat -- a giant enormous hat? it was a great race. it was really enjoyable.

olivia: number 1 -- prince william and kate walked outside with her gorgeous new baby. she will be fourth in line for the throne, in line behind prince george. tom: let's go to the gamblers in london. betting. alice 5-2. olivia, 7-1. olivia: is that true? olivia is a very popular name there. tom: alice is a name that was from -- elizabeth, the queen mother? olivia: they are all family names.

tom: does the baby have like six names? jim: probably. and if she ever becomes queen she is not necessarily using the first one. tom: the american tradition is to name the oldest son after the richest grandfather. olivia: we wish them both very well. tom: they are immediately getting a second au pair. life is tough. olivia: what are your thoughts on mcdonald's huge response on twitter already? do they bring back the plane burger? tom: do you think boy george has ever had a happy meal? the royal? olivia: we would love to get your thoughts. tweet us. lots more to come on "bloomberg surveillance." don't go away. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance here co ." olivia: the u.s. senator is holding an investigation --

according to kirsten gillibrand of new york, sex crimes in military units is more frequent than the pentagon has reported. she has refused to provide her information at sexual -- about sexual assault and many bases. the ceo of -- warren buffett said that -- he said that he could support someone who also had operational experience. the tech world is offering tribute to david goldberg, the ceo of survey monkey who died saturday night. he was the husband of facebook chief operating officer sheryl sandberg. the couple were vacationing over the seas when he died or the cause has not been disclosed. tom: let's look forward to the hour funding decision looms for

greece. olivia has a terrifically smart note by john taylor of the brookings institute. really looking forward to olivia's comments on that. and in inside look at baltimore from someone who has lived the baltimore experience, in the 7:00 hour. olivia, you picked the short straw here. olivia: at least it gives us something to talk about. two more candidates are throwing their hats into the ring today. former hewlett-packard ceo today carly freeiorina and dr. ben carson. joining us now is julie. do any of these new contenders have a real chance at the white house? julie: what they do have a chance at is mixing up the discussion. i think they will both be viable candidates for a long time for

financial reasons. ben carson can raise a lot of money online. groups associated with him that are very supportive of him have done that in the past. and carly free arena -- carly fiorina was left a nice chunk of change to fund the presidency -- a candidacy. tom: julie, i am amazed by this. wendell wilkie 1940, was a corporate lawyer. he pushed against isolationist republicans. that is from another time and place. who are these candidates pushing against within the party? julie: i think particularly dr. carson, they are pushing against in some ways the party itself. dr. carson wants to talk about a completely different set of things. sometimes he even maybe goes a bit too far with what he talks about, but just really sort of a

return to different types of discussion within the party. dr. carson gained notoriety at the prayer breakfast a few years ago, calling out president obama while he was sitting right there bank and talking about the affordable care act, and he brings an expertise in medicine that we have not seen before in the field. tom: olivia, i just totally do not get this. why? olivia: maybe it is a sign of the times. tom brings up wendell wilkie because 1940 was the last time anybody won a major party nomination that did not have experience in elected office, and here today we are going to carly free arena -- carly fiorina and dr. ben carson. what is carly fiorina's legacy and hp that is she is going to run on? it is not agreed that she did a great job there. julie: she has a great

personal story and she is a ceiling breaker. the republican nominee facing hillary clinton -- i think that is a powerful asset, and i think she recognizes that and will use it to her advantage. she is introducing her candidacy this morning. she will have a town hall type of event this evening, and she is a very compelling speaker. she can discuss her background and what she has year -- learned over the years in business. in a smart and sophisticated way. i think we will see a lot of her in this campaign, even though it is a crowded field. she gets high remarks from the donors i talked to and from supporters across the country. olivia: are either dr. carson or carly fiorina running for the vp ticket? julie: i think that is a fair assessment. everyone says they are in it to win it, but you have to look at

that second scene, and i think with carly that is something we should keep an eye on. tom: how does jeb bush respond to these candidates? how do the real candidates respond to the -- let's call it the vanity candidates? julie: i think they typically welcome as many voices to the field as want to be in it. that is sort of the statesmanlike thing to do. so they will probably tweet out as they have in the past welcome to the presidential field. jeb bush cannot do that because he is not technically a candidate yet. but the others will. tom: it is never dull, julie. she will be running for her candidacy, making the announcement friday. jim, thank you for joining us particularly on the u.k. elections. the euro was at 1.12, now at

1.11. we have much more in our next hour on euro economics finance and investment. stay with us on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: collet brinksmanship monday. -- call it brinkmanship monday. we will call it rings midship monday. a fragmented britain confronts a thursday election. and we sell burgers and happy males. mcdonald's -- and happy meals. mcdonald's -- it is monday, may 4. i'm tom keene. joining me, olivia stearns. both of us agree, we like value meal number two, hold the catch up and mustard. mcdonald's at this hour. olivia: i definitely do not like the number two meal. maybe hashbrowns at best. tom: are you the one person in america who eats a salad at mcdonald's? olivia: no, because there is still meet in the salad and mcdonald's. a late-night shooting at an

anti-islam event in texas. two gunmen were killed after opening fire outside an event hosted by an anti-islam organization. the group was holding the contest in garland, texas, featuring cartoons of the prophet mohammed, something many muslims consider offensive. police say two men approached the door of a conference center and shot a security guard. >> police officers nearby stall -- saw what was happening and engaged and shot and killed the men at the scene. the security guard was taken to the hospital where he was treated and has been released. olivia: police searched for the gunman's car. there is a report that supporters of the islamic state have claimed responsibility. the curfew has been lifted in baltimore six days after riots sparked by the death of a black man in police custody. the city appears to be getting back to normal. several hundred people held a peaceful demonstration outside city hall. speakers urged protesters not to rest just because police officers have been charged in

the death of freddie gray. maryland governor larry hogan wants people to know that baltimore is bouncing back. governor hogan: it is getting back to normal. but i think lifting the curfew is a good idea. let's get back to the city and get people back to work and back to school and get people coming back into the city. shops were really devastated this week. olivia: national guard troops are patrolling the streets of baltimore but will be pulled out gradually over the next few days. the field for the presidential nomination is getting bigger today. former hewlett-packard ceo carly free arena is announcing she is running. -- carly fiorina is running. also, retired numerous urgent ben carson is traveling to detroit today to announce his candidacy. he has become the favorite of grassroots conservatives. he is an outspoken critic of

president obama and obamacare. investors in mcdonald's could use a break today. they are hoping for a long-awaited plans for a comeback. mcdonald's is suffering through its worst sales slump in more than a decade. mcdonald's has already tried improving its menu by offering sirloin burgers and artisan grilled chicken. tom: sirloin burgers? does that mean they have beef? let's move on to boxing. a unanimous decision in the ring, a knockout on mr. mayweather. las vegas sports books also turned a profit. mayweather's fight against pacquiao, the odds on favorite and he won.

time for the morning brief. let's move on. mcdonald's unveiled their better burger turnaround plan. on friday, we will go beneath the headline data at 8:30 friday. at 10:30, we begin the political story of the day, dr. ben carson and carly free arena -- carly fiorina. the two-year yield, -- the game of chicken continues. greece is in search of the european central bank that will not relax rather than titan -- that will relax rather than titan can -- are the greek people behind the government as you face a wednesday deadline?

>> support for the current political government is around 45% or 50%, but that is down from political polls just a month ago. as bankruptcy looms people are getting a bit more scared. tom: olivia, that goes to our view -- our interview with the mayor of athens a few days ago? olivia: he said he believes that 80% of greeks want to stay. has the tone of the talks changed? cihas the tone changed? are you more hopeful that the new person leaving the talks can strike a deal?

vassilis: yes, especially after the negotiating theme from greece saying, however where still far away from clete -- from complete reform. on the sale of state assets. now we have big discrepancies on the fiscal assumptions they are talking about. there is still -- the completion of the solution is still far away. tom: of course, we will continue to follow this, particularly today, but tomorrow and into wednesday. greece is a peripheral to a better american and possibly a better european economy. it will be near 80 today is the ugly winter recedes. from the hamptons, 8000 square feet, had to refinance.

did you see the phrase trickling down in the rest of america? >> i certainly hope so, but has -- it has been part of quantitative easing. the qe prices have benefited those. olivia: the fed has not raised rates in 10 years. tom: thank you. that is brilliant. olivia: does anyone remember how to handle a tightening cycle? tim: there is a whole generation of traders that has never experienced a tightening cycle much less a normalization cycle. that said the condition for a lot of reasons. the conditions are right for some volatility. olivia: in the parlor game of when the fed hikes, when will we see it? tim: i hope september. olivia: and what happens then? tim: i think there are a couple of different outcomes.

i think they almost need to close their eyes and get to 100 or 150 basis points on the federal funds rate to rid they cannot let the market cause them to pause and the data dependent on each rate hike. if the fed communiques they will move four, 5, 6 times -- olivia: do you think the fed is behind inflation at this point? tim: the quantitative easing signals that could be the case. the unemployment rate, where it is -- i think the frustration rate at the productivity level is important. tom: i put out on bloomberg radio plus worldwide, a wonderful abp on the iphone and the android, olivia's observation that we have not raised rates in 10 years. it is amazing that we go back a decade. does anyone understand that when we raise rates --

tim: there is normalizing rates, and there is being forced to raise rates. the market would understand normalizing rates this no-inflation type of environment. but let's be clear, the fed knows and wants to raise rates. the question is, will they have to? tom: do you eat at mcdonald's? tim: the only thing i get a mcdonald's is a diet coke. tom: we need to find somebody here who chows down. where is victor? the basic idea here is the restructuring. it is fascinating how america has changed. tim: isn't that a good thing? olivia: the mcdonald's model does not support fresh fruit. -- fresh food. tim: that is why i do not eat there. i try to find a balance. olivia: i definitely do not go

to mcdonald's. i do like the hashbrowns, and the milkshakes are pretty good. they are trying all-day breakfast, bringing back sirloin burgers. tom: sirloin burger implies beef, and if it is not beef what is it? olivia: maybe it is a re-does -- maybe it is burritos. tom: our number two value question of the day -- what is a special sauce for mcdonald's? they have to get right back to the basics, a better burger. stay with us. worldwide and coast to coast. "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪

tom: it is the home of the first place new york yankees. they shellacked -- i said shellacked -- everything you heard in march about the yankees and red sox has been wrong wrong, wrong. their season is over. it is the city of the first-place new york yankees. olivia: it is a good feeling. the yankees are beating the red sox again. the morning must read comes from john taylor, writing in "the

wall street journal." "monetary rules work better than constraints discretion." taking a swing at ben bernanke, he says -- olivia: so john taylor, obviously behind the taylor rule, the idea you should fix inflation the interest rate to a set of inflation, he says ben bernanke is wrong to criticize monetary policy rule and instead support constrained discretion. tim: tim bits burger -- tim bitsberger, what a treat to see someone creating intelligent notes in this format. tim: i think he brings up a lot of good points. for central banks, to basically

ask in their own country's of interest it makes the case for currency debasement. tom: let ask you with your real-world treasury experience. do they talk more than they let on in the media? tim: certainly they do right now, but i think that is since 2008. olivia: one john taylor is saying here is that he is not advocating for some outer break in creation -- outer -- for some outer break equation in interest rates. tim: for the balance sheet and interest rates? i think they are doing their best effort. they have all the right intent to do what they want to do but they do not know what is going to happen, and i think sometimes as investors and traders, we have too much confidence in the fed. tom: do you have a confidence that we can get out of this with stability in place?

tim: i think it depends on inflation. if inflation shows signs of picking up, then i worry. that is for a couple of reasons. first of all, there is much less dealer tolerance for risk on balance sheets. and secondly, i think high-frequency trading his way up, and that can cause market gaps that we see inflation. tom: tim bitsberger. coming up, a different look, a local look on baltimore. stay with us, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: what a great start to the week. jobs data on friday. olivia stearns, pulling an all nighter wednesday night getting ready for three days of labor economics. let's get to top headlines. olivia: police in wisconsin are calling a shooting that left four people dead a random act. it happened last night on a bridge. one person was critically

wounded. the government is among the debt -- the gunman is among the dead. "the wall street journal" says comcast has been -- comcast walked away from a merger with time warner under pressure with regulators. the nba has its new m.v.p.. the associated press says it is golden state warriors point guard stephen curry. an official announcement is expected later today. he led the warriors to a franchise record 67 wins this season. they currently have a 1-0 lead over the memphis grizzlies in their best-of-seven western conference semifinals series. tom: let's look forward to bloomberg "surveillance." looking at the united kingdom elections. we hope you stay tuned throughout the week and we will brief you on those really important thursday elections.

true to theme, bloomberg's theme this morning mcdonald's comeback recipe. maybe we will hear about a better burger. we will talk with timothy bits burger -- of -- we will talk with tim bitsberger. olivia: the computer for you in baltimore is being lifted -- the curfew in baltimore is being lifted. national guard troops will be pulled out of baltimore over the next few days rejoining joining us now from the city of baltimore is dr. peter bielensen he is the author of tapping into the wire, the connection between poverty and violence. describe to us what we should know and for those of us who has not spent a lot of time in baltimore, how is the baltimore you know different from what we

see on the wire? >> part of baltimore is very much like you see on the wire but there is another large part that you see behind me here. you have two baltimores behind me, one the row houses, the harborplace that people come here as tourists want to know. tom: "the washington for -- the washington post" had a fabulous map saying that baltimore was different. view more than anyone i know has on-the-ground experience in baltimore. is the baltimore of the last those two weeks unique, or is it symptomatic of many other cities? >> it is clearly symptomatic of some cities and rural areas as well. the baltimore -- the bottom line is we have a choice to either we

let things get back to normal which is not acceptable for many people in baltimore, and you can see we are already getting back to normal. if you allow that to happen unrest will continue, disparity will continue to grow. or we can take the opportunity to make the choice to deal comprehensively with some of the problems we are facing in baltimore and elsewhere, and we can be a shining light as to how a city can come back here it -- a city can come back. olivia: there was a article over the weekend and he said president obama is wrong, that the problem is not a lack of investment in baltimore, it is poor policy and poor leadership. what is your take on that? >> it is actually a combination. i believe very strongly that the president has been taking a good stand on this. city leaders could have done more. it is not just dollars that need to come in.

there needs to be the political will to deal with the four legs of the stool of a decent, strong, healthy community. you need to have affordable housing and safe neighborhoods. you need decent public schools. you need access to health care and healthy food and what are called food deserts. you need to have livable wage jobs accessible to the adults in the communities. we do not have all four legs. it is not just money, it is the political will to go out and do that. tom: again, you are in the trenches of tactical use of policy, you in the case of health care. what are the tactics you would like to see by the government of baltimore in the coming days? >> bringing people together, not just talking platitudes about how we will make things better, but using this as an opportunity to make comprehensive change in baltimore. it is not enough to just have summer jobs for kids or to

rebuild the buildings that were burned down. we have to take this opportunity to make a difference. if we do not do that, shame on us. olivia:'s baltimore a business-friendly city? >> i think it actually is, although clearly this is not a good thing for baltimore business, let's be honest. the view of people around the country is this is some place you would probably not want to come to locate your business. however, if we use this opportunity to a dress major problems facing the city and cleaning up the disparities and making this an economy that is accessible to anyone, then we can serve as a shining beacon as to how a city can come back, and that will attract business back to baltimore. olivia: thank you so much. dr. peter b linson -- dr. peter b linson -- dr. peter beilenson joining us.

tom: the real question is, what kind of result will the election be when the two main parties get one third of the vote. olivia stearns and tom keene. onto the u.k. next. it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. let's go to the bloomberg terminal to get your labor week started. the jobs report friday -- this is jobless claims, population adjusted. here is the ugliness of the

1960's some of the 1970's. here is the 1980 double recession. here is the 20-year trend at the beginning of the crisis. tim bitsberger of bnp paribas is here with us as well. what an asymmetric statement on a better labor economy. tim: the eci points to a much stronger labor market that people are knology. tom: maybe it is not the 1990's, but it is at least that are then good, which means the fed has to act. tim: the labor market seems to be in full recovery, maybe implying that the fed could be behind the curve a little bit. olivia: 5.5% used to be normal. tom: tim, how do we get from a given yield u.s. tight have 10 year of 2.13%, up to 3%?

that has to have ramifications. tim: i think it depends. if the fed is behind conference, the market will back up the 10 year yield for the fed. if the fed shows confidence and deliberately starts raising rates sooner than december, i think that can contain the longer end of the olivia: what is tightening due to the housing market? tim: it slows it down. the bulk of friday and friday mac -- fannie and freddie mag mortgage issuance have been in the finance market. you look at these numbers and more people are working and there's more confidence and housing. tom: what is a good inflation? you are an economist at dmp perry bob saying inflation scares our way overdone. what is a good level of inflation. ? tim: it is a level that makes sense. it shows pricing power in the marketplace.

i like the fence forecast at 2%. tom: there we are on a monday morning in huge business. a busy economic week. let us get to our top headlines this morning. here is olivia. olivia: over the weekend near dallas, a contest for cartoons depicting the prophet mohammed ended in tragedy. two gunmen died at the event. a police officer discuss what happened. >> two men got out and fired at a garland independent school district officer. he is dressed like a police officer, however, he is unarmed. they started shooting at batman and they did shoot him. he was taken to the hospital where he was treated and has been released. garland officers close by saw what was going on, and gauge the two men shot and killed them both. olivia: the event was sponsored by the american freedom defense initiative. they offered $10,000 for the

best cartoon depicting the prophet mohammed. those cartoons would be considered many -- offensive by many muslims. the earthquakes in nepal have keep getting worse. the ministers calling for massive international support. he says that within three weeks nepal will have to turns its attention to post quake reconstruction. greece and its international creditors are still far apart and talks of unlocking more bailout aid. tom: way apart. olivia: progress was made in the past four days of negotiations but differences remain on a wide range of issues. the greek government not budge and his opposition to cutting tensions or raising the sales tax to one greek official says the government should have enough money to get through the whole week. it was almost a record-breaking weekend at the box office. disney's "avengers" took in $188 million in north america the opening weekend.

that is the second biggest debut . some people say a could of got that are, but lost big business to the boxing match on saturday night. the biggest debut was the predecessor "avengers" which brought in $207 million in its opening weekend. tom: let's get this quick. the genetic new york yankees -- the dreaded boston white sox -- red sox swept the new york yankees. just put the tickets now. the yankees are terrible. the macy's and over as well. i want to make one thing clear this morning. i've missed this. this speaks to the guns in america. there are two shootings this morning. i think we need to say that. there is a texas shooting and wisconsin shooting, right? i think it is important starting

monday that there are two shootings across america within our news. let me look at equities and bonds. yields get my attention. the yields are higher this morning. yields at 61 point percent. the 10 year at 2.3%. the euro under 112. olivia: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm here with tom keene. tom: in the united kingdom, there is a selection. princess olivia sounds good to me. their os is stored -- there is a historic election. gordon healthspring is the offspring of gordon brown and tony blair. our very own briefs is on a very brief and close race. how far is ed hillebrand from what we know as labor? gordon brown is chancellor. how far is his rhetoric from the labor we knew?

>> he is in the gordon brown mode of things. he has been tougher in his rhetoric to further his rhetoric . like a lot of the pledges he has been delivering. he knows that he cannot keep in full. the likelihood of a majority government is very slim if not impossible. tom: we hear from david cameron of a return to margaret thatcher. is it genuine? is the evoking the language of fairness from another time and place? >> he is. for example, he uses right to buy. i think he is trying to of people -- appeal to the tory party. he is trying to get that last-minute swing. he knows that of using too much would be his best chance .

olivia: our colleague spoke with the chancellor. he is the equivalent of the british finance minister. he indicated that sticking with david cameron is the way to go. have a listen. >> i think people are focusing now on that central economic choice as this general election limbs. we can either have david cameron back at work on friday, leading a strong and conservative stable government or we can have the political instability and a potential economic chaos as a result of a week ed miliband propped up. olivia: the u.k. is now the fastest growing g-7 economy. the imf had to apologize to george osborne because the reforms they once criticized actually turned out to be working so well. why isn't david cameron more popular if the economy is relatively outperforming? >> that is the big question.

even though we know from polls that economic confidence is a lot higher than it was, somehow it is not translating to people backing david cameron. the tories are still hoping that they will have that last-minute swing. voters will go to the ballot box and see that things haven't been so bad. at the same time, this is a government that has been associated with five years of austerity. that is the kind of mode that sticks. olivia: where does immigration fall in this? will immigration be an issue that decides the election? >> immigration is usually the number one issue in voters mind. both parties stay away from it because it is pretty toxic. david cameron is trying to make a few pledges that he has not managed to meet on setting targets. this is where they have made ground. tom: we have a thursday election. we know that an america -- what

do the two leaders do today? olivia:>> we heard ed miliband reiterating his pledges. there's a lot of hilarity on twitter. david cameron this afternoon will be making a speech at a rally in england where he is going to set out his party tax pledges. a deepening of ideologies if you like. tom: thank you so much. she is with us from london. this is fun. this is an old-school dual. i'm getting, that about this. this is a huge deal for the british people thursday. olivia: it is a huge deal and has profound implications for the economy and the tax environment. it is ultimately going to be horse trading. will the dems be usually popular out of nowhere or will ed miliband's party

win? tom: who's really voting for? olivia: i think he wants lower taxes. that's what a question of the day -- the mcdonald's ceo asking if the special sauce is too thick? ♪

tom: the gorge he also be of new

york city. a beautiful day. we will get well to the 80's of the next couple days. summer is dashing. the leaves are out. a beautiful spring morning out of manhattan. he welcome you worldwide to "bloomberg surveillance." are we road tripping at noon? do we need to go to mcdonald's? olivia: tom wants up mcmuffin. mcdonald's will unveil its comeback strategy. it is facing its worst sales slump in more than a decade. they are facing pressure from groups that weren't satisfied in the plans to boost pay. betty liu joins us now on set. a big day here. he has already raised rages -- wages to the lowest paid workers. he is taken a few items off the menu. betty: yes taken yes taken items of

the chicken. sales were down 2%. that was the worst performance in 15 years. i'm from a generation ago. i grew up on mcdonald's. you're not supposed to interject yourself into a story, but i feel like there is a lot of mcdonald's bashing. i an kind of rooting for this company to come back. they have a lot of problems. bloomberg wrote a great story of a night that details the five things mcdonald's has to improve. i will go through them very quickly. number 1 -- might be real estate. they might talk about some issues that they have where they may spin off some of their real estate. number 2 -- re-franchising. my they work on that. number 3 -- relationship building with their franchise these -- franchises. their relationships with them are at the lowest point in 12 years. number 4 -- downsizing.

i'm not talking about downsizing the restaurants. it is about done something there many. -- downsizing their menus. that some of the options. they took out six menu items. the fifth thing that they are going to look to do is fix the food. it is the food that is going to bring people in and it is the food that people complain about the most. those are the five things. tom: are they going to say the dreaded c word -- chipotle? betty: no, but it is a big elephant in the room. tom: the stock is barely down and free cash flow given the lower revenues. the free cash flow is remarkably level. it is not a financially beleaguered company. betty: an analyst had said this well. a 1% increase in mcdonald's revenue is an entirely new company. that is $350 million. this is a company that continues to make a lot. tom: when i would look forward

to it is a phrase called better burger. they did a pr phrase and that was there twice. a better burger. olivia: i don't eat meat. what are they called -- mix larry's -- mixcflurries? so mcdonald's to have a veggie patty. that is our twitter question -- what is the special sauce to fix mcdonald's? please tweet us at bloomberg surveillance. ♪

tom: good morning at there is a spring race. dow futures of 65. let's get to the top headlines this morning. here is olivia. olivia: the field for the republican nomination keeps on growing. carly c arena at her to the pack. she confirmed her plans on abc's "good morning america." >> yes, i am running for president. i think i'm the best presence of the job because i understand how the economy actually works. i understand the world who's in it how the world works. i understand her odysseys and that what is our federal government become. -- our federal government has

become -- a giant bureaucracy. olivia: also into the fold this week retired nurse surgeon dr. ben carson. also, former arkansas governor mike huckabee is expected to announce tomorrow. a u.s. senator is accusing the pentagon of withholding information about sex-related crimes. for your report by senator gillibrand from new york says that sexual crimes is more frequent than the department of defense has publicly reported. gillibrand has refused -- said the god has refused to provide her information on several cases. the snow and ice was not just relentless, but it was also very expensive. according to a new survey, 23 spades -- states combined spending of $20 million and winter operations. the single-season snowfall record was broken in boston which blew up its winter budget pretty quickly and endured a record 110 inches of snow this

winter. her house, that is why the stock was low that they. tom: i knew you would get to it. the red sox blew out the budget as well. the season is over. let's look forward to betty liu. she will look at mcdonald's and the many visits with her senior management over the year. mcdonald's will look for a better burger. and then comcast using cash front and center. we saw that in the earnings announcement this morning. and as carly fee arena stand a chance? but there she is -- hat and the ring. dr. ben carson as well and governor huckabee as the republican field gets crowded. it is a jobs week. we will get to the data on 8:30 a.m. on friday. an american economy raging debate on whether interest rates matter. tim formerly worked at the treasury department and understands public officials are

supposed to guarantee that we are in control and know what we are doing. that is the job. you have been guilty of that. you come out as a public official and say, yes, we are totally in control. what is the back story on research of exiting our great distortion ? tim: one thing that has changed a lot in last couple of years is that there is a lot less risk tolerance than primary dealers now. they take the other sides of trades. that violates the backdrop for a more volatile environment. in the past five years, you have seen a lot of people on the show that cried wolf. i think the conditions are right for higher volatility. tom: can you correlate your bond world into the equity world? tim: i think if the fed is confident and raises rates almost with the blinders on regardless of the noise around it, and it gets to 100 basis

points i think i would argue for a stable equity market. what if the fed is perceived as being behind the curve, that i think that is when the equity markets will be very vulnerable. olivia: how can the feds normalize rate? there's a quarter where european sovereign debt is negative. tim: that is exactly the point. if the fed is gradual and raising the curve, the u.s. yield curve can basically be a flat line. typically in a fed tightening cycle, the 2-year note trades 100 basis points. we are very far from that right now. olivia: what do you think about the good luck calls that came out last week? tim: i think that ce distorts prices. right now, you are seeing a lot of price distortion in europe. tom: i know you're not going to speak for the french government. i don't want to get you in a

timeout with the french bank. but the share overalls tangible. do you link german yield dynamics for what we see in the united states? tim: i think it is qe and a lot less liquidity in the government bond markets. i think what you are seeing in europe is an opportunity for structural reform. they have lower euro and lower oil prices. they have two years of growth and are not taking advantage of instituting structural reforms that can bring long-term growth .h. tom: do we get higher yield rates? does inflation go up and do retiree still get screwed? what about in america? tim: i think we would all like to see higher yield rates. i think that would be a sign that we are getting back to some kind of normalcy. except for that number is that you have and 22 on unemployment, we are just not seeing that push. tom: we are not to escape

velocity. olivia: again, 5.5% headline unemployment does sound pretty good and the index does look like people are starting to get money. look at mcdonald's. people are getting a raise. tom: i think these are huge questions. one thing is that nothing happens. deflation this are wrong. we again are wrong on a higher rate regime. what is the long outcome? is that good for janet yellen? tim: i don't like it is. it has to break. part of the problem is that investors and traders are so used everyone crying wolf and ignoring it that i think there is a chance other -- that it could explode. olivia: what is a chance of liftoff if we get our first rate hike? what is the trajectory? tim: assuming inflation is not a real threat, i think it is 25 basis points every other meeting until they get to 1.5 percentage

points. tom: for our next hour, we're going to answer twitter questions. what a response today. olivia: our most popular twitter question of the day after. i don't believe it. we asked what is the special sauce for mcdonald's? first off, make a decent and juicy sandwich. tom: thank you. i think he is british for calling in a sandwich. they have to compete with strict sack. -- shake shack. olivia: number 2 -- bring the shanghai menu to the u.s.. switch the menus country by country and see what happens. tom: someone said that about spain as well. olivia: our third answer is mickey d's is so yesterday. so poll a is kicking but with no gm owes an free range chicken and cows. i think that gets to the crux of it. chipotle exists and they are serving fresh food. tom: they invented it. no question about it. do you go to chipotle?

tim: i do. betty says she was from one generation ago. i've from two generations ago and there are so many options now. tom: it is certainly part of the american fabric. that gets us to our agenda today. let me get started with mine. mcdonald's was a dream out on the west coast. and then happen. you have to give credit to ray kroc for what mcdonald's did. it will be fascinating to see if they can do the restriction that some anemic and icons have done. olivia: it is company that is in great financial health with healthy free cash flow. tom: they have to have the revenue number to move. is a big task. olivia: on my agenda, three new gop candidates to enter the 2016 race this week. carly fiorina announced on "good morning america" that she is going to run. dr. ben carson will hold a

conference today. bloomberg politics will hold a live stream at 10:00 a.m.. to do for that. tomorrow, we are waiting for governor huckabee to say that he is again running. tom: i want to make clear that i made some comments. these are all good people. they just don't know -- what do you do day one? you show up and have no political experience? olivia: what he is saying is that carson and fiorin have no experience in government. a1940 was the last time that someone with no experience in government was nominated by major party. maybe they are running for vice president. most importantly, lettuce and the show with this. what will be the royal babies name? here are the odds. alice is at 5-2. look at the name down on the chart. tom: olivia at 7-1. i went with that this week. elizabeth -- you have to go with that.

the grandmother and great-grandmother. i do like alice though. olivia: a beautiful new baby girl. congratulations to the duchess of cambridge and prince william. tom: there it is. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance" continues on radio. ♪

betty: good morning. it is monday, may 4. we are live at bloomberg headquarters in your are in the loop and i am betty liu. we have a great show lined up for you this money.

mcdonald's coming up with a new recipe for success. starting right now, ceo steve easterbrook's unveiling a turnaround plan and a video. it is the first turnaround plan and years -- one of the most important for the restaurant giant. sales in a slump worldwide. we will be on top of the story in the next three moments. we will bring you the headlines as soon as they cross. late in the show, live to kansas city where gm celebrates a milestone. the 500 million jim carr to come off the line. 500 million cars to come off the line. we are going to speak with a top executive on what is next for the automaker. look at the top stories is wanted. bloomberg news lends there is no progress in the bailout talks. there are still big difference is on many issues. the greek government is still refusing to cut mentions or to raise sales tactics. one economist says that what each side wants creates huge gaps.