>> people look at figures and i would say that things are improving o overall economically, and i would say in particular in europe we see it on the ground. that might be progressive. mark: he tells us things are looking up at france's second-biggest bank. earnings are coming out. we break down the numbers and bring you more of our interview. caroline: global bonds slide extending the route which has now erased $340 billion in value in the last week. that is $60 barrelss.

we bring you the latest on the market. mark: pressure -- greece point the finger at creditors as a deal to unlock bailout funds remains elusive. we bring you the latest on the day greece is due to pay 200 million euros to the ims. caroline: down to the wire on the final day of the u.k. election campaign, with no clear leader. parties vie for every boat. we go to westminster ahead of tomorrow's general election. mark: microsoft is said to be approached by a would-be buyer. the purchase could come with a pretty price tag, with sales forcing market value to $50 billion. we bring you the details. welcome to countdown.

caroline: coming up, bmw's falling growth. shares plunged yesterday after the biggest luxury carmaker tempered growth forecasts. we will break down the company. mark: earnings are breaking now from gm france's biggest bank. net income rose to 868 million euros from 169 million earlier, beating the 7.7 million euro average estimate. it is all down to equities trading revenue from stock trading, boosting profits at the global bank, and investors solutions unit by 21% from a year earlier to 522 million euros. the equities cushion lower sales

from debt trading, a drop in french consumer banking earnings, and losses in russia. we do have a beat from the second-biggest bank -- let's get more details from caroline in paris. a good set of numbers? caroline: yes. like other rivals in europe socgen has benefited in the first quarter. the investment bank proceeded a 21% increase in revenue compared to last year, a 2% boost from equities trading. socgen is reorganizing their investment bank and took control of the derivatives broker last year to increase trading. the ceo told me that strategy is starting to bear fruit, and as you can imagine, some think

it is compensating for loyal sales -- lower sales. a small drop coming from the french consumer. i spoke with the ceo of socgen, and i asked him whether that recovery he saw in the first quarter was going to continue. >> people look at french figures and structurally, i would say things are improving overall economically, and i would say particularly in europe. we see that on the ground. there is a general feeling that things are improving. of course, there are some risks in the system. for greece in things. there can be some volatility in the capital market. caroline: greece is still not out of the woods -- every day we have a headline of greece. still no compromise in sight.

>> again, everybody is trying to find the way and if it was a different scenario, i think it would need difficult steps. i think we see that more positively, the market is not that nervous. let's wait and see the outcome. caroline: do you see a lot of concern about russia with one million euros this quarter. do you need to reduce your exposure to the world bank? >> let me say that the situation is under control. it is relatively small compared -- our exposure is small. secondly we have seen a normalization, a progressive normalization compared to the end of last year. a decrease of interest rates at the central bank. and of course, there was a limited reaction, the decrease

of the ruble. all this was expected, and it is in line with what we had in mind. what we have been doing has been further strengthening the balance sheet. we have further decreased, as expected, the funding provided to the parent company which is now limited to 500 million. we are making good progress. caroline: a good start to the year for socgen. he says the markets are reacting to greece and it is normalizing in russia. if you look at the shares from socgen, they are up 28% compared to 12% increase for the index of european banks. he is looking at the u.k. election. he says that the rules would be much more complex to manage in

the u.k. and the best solution is to remain in the eu for both parties. mark: thanks. caroline: meanwhile, grace points the finger at its creditors -- no deal will be possible onto the european commission and imf reduce the number of nonnegotiable redline. that was said by a government official. the comments come as the common council meets in frankfurt to discuss emergency funding for greek banks and the imf payment of 200 million euros. paul, talk to us about the ecb. how are they likely to act on the emergency liquidity, there discussing -- their discussion? paul: they happen pretty straightforward. officials have stated that they are rules-based, that liquidity

assistance is there to replace deposits from greek banks. that was over the uncertainty of greases huger -- of greece's future. you can expect it is quite likely that that will increase once again because the deposits are still outflowing. the key question now is whether the collateral which the bank posted against it needs to be tightened. there is concern that the risks of a greek default as time starts to run out, increase and the existing collateral rules date back to late last year, when everything was looking healthier. very soon as the time to tighten those. caroline: certainly. we have a possible haircut happening when it comes to the collateral. the ecb is discussing that, but what about where we see the actual negotiations?

the ecb is being talked about politicized -- is that a reality? paul: it certainly is a concern. mario draghi did not want a political lean. at critical decision on greece would have to be taken by the finance ministers the euro area governments. with the ecb acting as an expert counselor. the key here is that you are holding some of the key strings to finances and greet banks -- into greek banks. according to the greek government and the foreign minister they didn't seem to lead to very much. the greek government saying it went in and told draghi that constructive progress as possible as long as institutions act constructively, reflecting comments you referred to just

before this interview. the ecb came out and said -- we talked about the latest state of the greek economy. that is all fairly blunt. it is a difficult situation and it could mean that today's council meeting drags on. caroline: thank you. mark: just a day until u.k. voters head to the polls. let's get to dan edwards and westminster. good morning. what happens on this last day of campaigning? anna: good morning. the last day of campaigning is tomorrow, 660 seats held in the house of commons. new and existing mps taking their seats in parliament. the polls don't give us any clues, so we have got popular still putting labor and

conservatives on 34% each. perhaps the spread might give us more of an indication of what is happening -- both groups are forecasting that the conservative party will get more seats and many of the computer models are still forecasting that conservatives will get a few more seats. interesting to report -- some of the goings-on overnight. david cameron talking about declaring victory if he wins more seats than the labour party, not necessarily waiting to see if he can get a coalition together. gordon brown spoke and london yesterday -- spoke in london yesterday going to reignite this goddess party, and he said those remarks will hold the balance of power in westminster. gordon brown says it is just

noise and westminster. we will see how it falls out. the last day of campaign, the focus will be on trying to retain some of those hard to retain constituencies. mark: what key messages will parties want to get across today? anna: it's all going to be about driving home the messages we have heard so often during this campaign. from the conservatives we will see them trying to push together scenes of stability comes strong economy, all that rhetoric. david cameron will say you can do this or risk it all with ed miliband. ed miliband is going to focus on his messages for working people. he will say britain only succeeds when working families succeed. the liberal democrats are plowing the middle road saying

that the ideological cuts are less likely. mark: what about building coalitions? are we any closer to knowing who will side with whom? anna: interesting that the financial minister is already reporting that the conservatives are behind the scenes, having coalition talks or preparing for talks. oliver let when has been charged with the liberal democrats, trying to extract from the conservative parties. one of the big points of contention could be around a referendum with membership of the european union. the liberal democrats will have their choices to make between the conservative they know and the labour party, who would rely to some extent on support of the smp. clegg the leader of the live dams, needs to win his seat before any of that becomes material.

nick clegg was warning that we could end up with another election unraveling. mark: anna edwards in westminster. we will speak to you later. caroline: let's look at company news. shares in the world's largest luxury carmaker fell as much as 6% yesterday, after the company forecast slowing growth ahead of earnings. we have the details on bmw. talk us through some of the numbers that came out, because we did see quite a move. >> sales growth at bmw is supposed to be north of 10%, and what they are now saying is it will be between 5% and 10%. they are saying -- what is realistic is 5%-10%. when you look at the bmw earnings, you want to think about two things. bmw is in this unfortunate spot,

where they have 15 cars and development -- which is great -- but steel sales come the end of the year, maybe i should replace my car, but at the same time, it means the cars they have out there right now have been around for a little while. when you think about a three horse race with mercedes and audi that doesn't put them in a very good position. product mix is one issue and geography is the other. i was sitting in his chair five years ago when we were talking about european sales being in the doghouse, now you have the reverse picture. in china, the growth is at a six-year low. sales of luxury cars are not plummeting but not nearly as fast. the forecast came out yesterday from an industry group saying that between 2018 and beyond,

what we can expect is that the market for luxury cards will drop by 11% where it used to be about 33%. slowing sales growth among rich people in china. the question is how much will that be offset here in europe which has been going wonderfully?60 consecutive months of growth in car sales in europe. so how much of that can bmw catch? maybe not as much as they would like. the sales growth target has been unchanged but the most important thing to keep in mind -- if you look year on year, analysts are still inspecting -- still expecting an increase from last year. that is a good sign for them but watch anything the company has to say about china. caroline: thank you. mark: top stories on bloomberg

this hour -- $60 a barrel. futures gaining as much as 1% in new york rising from the highest close since september. crude fell by 1.5 million barrels, the first drop in industry data in a week. microsoft is evaluating the bid for stockcom. salesforce has a market value of almost $50 billion and is working with two investment banks to determine the response to approaches. western union is an early-stage talks with a smaller rival. both companies are contending with stiff competition. money gram reported losses of $72 million in the first quarter compared to a profit of $39 million earlier.

caroline: it is election day in the u.k. tomorrow. what is the continued uncertainty doing to the british powers? ♪

mark: one day of campaigning in one of the most uncertain elections in u.k. political history. let's take a look at the effects

on sterling. chief economist simon smith. sterling dollar highest since may 20 10 -- since may, 2010. simon: absolutely. the difference between may, 2010, we know that there is much more. what comes out of it in terms of friday onwards is where i think the more interesting action will be in terms of what we have, and the greater results of the overall majority. it is natural that they have spiked higher. no one knows in terms of what the price will be. caroline: it has been on volatility with no one to preempt what could happen. simon: naturally, we saw --

second week of march going through to mid april -- we saw a bounceback but that was largely on the backs of a lot more uncertainty regarding the election, and it is treated differently. it will be an interesting parallel to 1992. we saw quite a big reaction to sterling in the stock market, rallying 3%. it will not be the same this time, because we are not talking -- we are talking coalitions which is harder to deal with. we could have a minority government going through every vote. mark: volatility is at a high, isn't it? it comes down a little bit at a three month -- we are expecting a month of uncertainty? simon: naturally, the longer

timeframe you look at, there is a normalization. it is natural that we see that sort of reversal on longer-term. over the one week, no one is going to convince you on price options around that. caroline: talk to us a little bit about the other side of the atlantic. you have some interesting thoughts, that the dollar could weaken yet further. simon: i think we have seen the precedents in the dollar index -- you haven't seen anything like that since the exchange rates. the correction we saw in a role -- nothing moves in a straight line. what we saw in april was an actual reaction. going forward, the issue for me is that the ultimate driver of

currency are still monetary policy. in the u.s., we see expectations. i don't see it coming to the end of the year. it is getting harder and harder to play that bullish dollar view . the first bit of the year was drivers of central banks easing. caroline: we are starting to see central banks -- everything is dictated by central banks. yesterday, the australian central bank cut and the australian dollar rose. simon: they shifted more to a neutral bias in their statement in regards to currency. i think they were taking away with one hand and giving with the other on that statement,

which is why we saw an unusual reaction. ultimately, currencies are just money, and if you want to see the big news, you have to see that change. i think that is the kicker. mark: how do you explain the on market selloff in the last week? $350 billion worth of bonds being sold off in the last week. why now? what has happened in last week? simon: if you look at what has happened over the last three to four weeks they were in such a negative yield spectrum. the rationality of it was getting more and more -- mark: it came with the number of figures like growth. bet against the german bond market, but is that a coincidence? simon: i would say it is coincidence.

my dog could have told you that. it all comes down to timing. it is easy to have a call but the hard thing is a timing. we are seeing -- a handful of basis points and you look at it -- what world are we living in? we will see some better data runs. i think it is more luck than anything else. caroline: we are looking at inflation and oil prices coming up. are you expecting inflation to rise? simon: yes, i think we will see non-food and energy -- that is the thing we have to watch. mark: thanks simon. i want your dog to come on, the bond market guru. thanks. caroline: still to come bmw's

stalling growth. shares plunged after they tempered growth forecasts. we will break it down. ♪

mark: welcome back. time for your look at the foreign exchange markets. the new zealand darrelle dollar toppling to a three-week low against its u.s. counterpart after a report showed wage inflation slowing. i have looked at the new zealand dollar against all of its major counterparts are it is falling against every single one. the malaysian dollar is up against it and the worst performer is the indian rupee.

every major currency is rising today. the speculation persists that the central bank will cut interest rates to revive growth. we had the central bank governor last week saying he was prepared to cut the overnight demand if demand weakens. its load to .3% in the first quarter from .5% in the previous three months. the big news today from new zealand is that the dollar has toppled to a three-week low after a report showed wage inflation slowing. does that mean in interest rate cut is imminent? caroline: let's get to more breaking news. numbers out of bmw the world's biggest maker of luxury cars. >> bmw was saying they made $2.3

billion in pretax profit $2.09 billion last year. a solid "b." revenue is also better than last year and what was expected. last year they did $18.24 billion. it will relieve some investors. they were a bit offputting when the ceo, who was switching out on the 13th, that we are seeing slowing growth. that got people concerned. this will reassure people, at least in the short-term term that bmw was doing ok. we saw a beta for daimler and volkswagen, so this is really strong earnings in the european

car market itself. the market has 60 consecutive months of growth. we are getting more numbers -- 9.5% in targeted range.

that is what they are showing today. for 2016, they see that margin target of 8%-10% being made reassuring the market that they think it is doable showing that with these first three months. 9.5%. mark: thanks. caroline: let's check in on some other top stories -- the european commission will propose rules for the technology industry, including implications for everyone. we will look at whether extra regulation is needed to curb company market power. they are proposing to rein in internet companies just weeks after google was accused of abusing its market power. u.s. antitrust officials are scrutinizing apple's efforts to line up deals with record labels in a new version of

beats music streaming service. the ftc is looking at whether apple is using its position to put rival music services at a disadvantage. a proposed french law beefing up the government spying power. it sailed through the lower house of parliament. this follows the "charlie hebdo" attacks in paris. the bill now goes to the senate suggesting amendments that cannot overturn -- you can find more on that story a bloomberg.com. mark: sainsbury's reporting numbers and roughly half an hour. here with more is charles allen. charles: we are expecting a small loss. they took the charge in the

first half and it is unlikely that the underlying profit will exceed that. caroline: talk to us about underlying sales growth, or lack thereof. charles: the overall deflation. sainsbury's is now reporting five successive courses of depleting sales. it is difficult to know what they are going to do to reverse it. the discounts are still gaining market shares and everyone is looking around, trying to see what they can do. mark: how do you reverse that when tesco is guns blazing trying to turn around its own ship? charles: there are couple of things -- one is that fuel prices are lower than they have been. no one has really seen the benefit from that yet. there is small evidence that people are going to fuel

stations and buying more fuel which would benefit all the supermarkets. sainsbury's is still not regaining its market share that it lost in the 1990's. it is at least possible that it can hold its own, but it is a bet. a strong tesco would make it more difficult. caroline: meanwhile, the theme has been breakdowns. -- writedowns. charles: the value of your property is what you expecting future sales. the expectations on future sales have gone down compared to what they were even two years ago so you have to reduce the value of the property. the return on capital of the industry overall has dropped well below the cost of capital. the way to get out of that is to reduce the amount of capital in

the industry. mark: can sainsbury's turn things around? charles: probably. every time we have looked at the supermarkets going back even to the 1970's, people have thought -- this is such a disaster, we can never get out. then five years later population growth or income growth or something, people start to go back to the shops again. mark: we shall see in 22 minutes. thanks a lot. caroline: meanwhile, it is deadline day in israel. after seven weeks of coalition talks, benjamin netanyahu has until wednesday night to form a stable government and he may not make it. elliott gotkine is here just in time. are they going to go to the wild? how are they going to form a government?

elliott: this is all from the decision of the foreign minister, refusing to join netanyahu's governing coalition. they are seen as very close ideologically and in elections before this, not only was he part of netanyahu's government, they ran on the same ticket. that was a bit of a surprise in justifying the decision. what this does now -- israelis put the ball firmly in the court of the jewish home party. he is still the economy minister from the last government and he may stiffen his resolve in terms of getting the foreign ministry netanyahu adopted him as the education ministry -- but at the same time, he also has a strong

hand because he doesn't want to be the person to cause or prevent netanyahu forming a right-wing government and allowing the election -- allowing the left in. mark: will you make it or not? alico you write off bb at your peril -- elliott: you write off ebi your peril. nothing ever seems to stick. my sense is that he will make it but even then, they will only have 61 seats out of the 120 -- the slimmest of majorities. it doesn't make for stable government. one of the other possibilities -- it is possible that netanyahu could say -- i am going to form a national unity government, but this opposition has said -- it is not just a default option it is a preferable option.

on top of that if netanyahu fails to form a governing coalition then the baton gets handed to them. could they form a government? they would need to get the uae on board. they have never before been part of an israeli government and it seems unlikely. my best guess is that we will get a netanyahu right-wing government before tonight's deadline, midnight israel time. caroline: a taste of things to come in the united kingdom. [laughter] you painted a very simple site picture, thank you. mark: join the conversation on twitter.

caroline: meanwhile as if we could forget, election day in the u.k. tomorrow -- but it is the uncertainty surrounding the government is it here to stay? ♪

mark: the glasgow constituency as a battle between the scottish national party and labour party. now predict the seat will be falling to the smp on may 7. bloomberg caught up with the candidates on the trail. ♪ >> sorry, i'm your local labor candidate. >> i went with labor last year, but i might change my mind. >> scottish people like an underdog, and they are getting the underdog a chance. people are listening to us. we are not going to do that by breaking the area down. westminster is clearly

left-wing, because some of what is coming out there is nothing short of fabulous. don't leave us out of the prospect of having some say. key people here -- when we say that we have influence, that is what we mean. >> i think people are fed up. >> it is a fight. i enjoy that kind of fight. we could gamble the prospect of another tory government. i think scottish labor needs to assertively speak to people giving them a sense of direction. cut through a bit more

assertively and i think that will come through as people get to that. >> the value -- [indiscernible] >> my campaign team are very motivated. that is part of the problem. people don't feel like they are being listened to. for the first time, they feel like their votes matter. >> there is not universal credit. >> we want to be a progressive party. policies important to people in scotland are important across the u.k. ♪ caroline: let's discuss more about what the snp could unleash. could it be as much as we have

been hearing? >> that absolutely could. the polls are pointing that way. it is plenty. it could well take it to almost every seat, but one paul has indicated it might win every seat. i think there probably will be some shy labor voters. we hear a lot in with the shy conservative voters in england but in scotland there might be shy labor voters. getting the tories out is his main priority. mark: ed miliband said he wouldn't even enter into discussion -- do we take him at his word? >> that is the kind of thing he has to say in a campaign like this. he has to campaign for the majority.

there is no realistic prospect of labor governing without some sort of a deal, however lose it is, with the snp. caroline: paint a picture for us tomorrow. we are all trying to work out what numbers -- what will be the magic number? you are doubting that either party will get over 300 and that is where the scoreboards and fighting -- >> the conservatives talk a lot about legitimacy. legitimacy has a number and it is 325. obviously there are various permutations, but it is going to take 325 or something close to it, probably slightly less to get anything done. it would have to be labor plus

the snp plus liveb dems. if the polls are to be believed they are quite complex. mark: it seems cameron is vowing to stand firm remain in downing street, put a queens a speech to the floor even as he get 290 seats. >> he gets those anyway as prime minister. in a sense the legitimacy point that has been raised over the weekend doesn't really matter. he gets the first go, he gets to remain in office. yeah he will be planning a queens speech. caroline: and if that was to come about, he was able to send this iteration to pass through you feel that could be quite

unstable. it would be unstable in the longer term because -- >> i think the lib dems will be a lot more reluctant. i think they will be very difficult to work with. even as much as passing votes in the same lobby, for getting the idea of a formal coalition, i think they will find that very difficult. they will be a bit less induced. -- enthused. mark: why would they want to enter into a coalition after losing have their vote? why would they risk it a second time? why not just sit it out? it>> it is their only realistic chance of coming to the government with the political

scene fragmenting more and more. they're reduced representation continues to be the norm and keeping themselves in the public is the only way they will be able to do it. caroline: do you have any inkling -- if they could be a surprise tomorrow, what would it get? >> the closest we are going to get to a surprise might be the conservatives. a lot of last-minute switches, which would boast conservative standings, keep a few marginals. if we do see a surprise it- -- -- mark: what probability do you put on a repeat of 1992? >> one of my friends made a very interesting video clip about that. i think it is a possibility, but

i wouldn't put it at more than 10%. mark: good to see you, david. david lea. caroline: staying with the election, the country has one of the oldest electoral systems in the world, but how does it work? anna edwards tries to educate us with ryan chilcote. anna: let me break it down. the names of the party leaders are not on the ballot paper. i get to vote for whoever want to be my local member of parliament. ryan: what does that have to do with prime minister? in the states we vote directly for the president and we vote for our local representatives in a totally different election. anna: we do things differently. we have been doing this for more than 700 years. ryan: because you did such a

good job designing the system in the first place. no taxation without representation. we had to go to war with you to get our say. anna: back to the subject. there are 660 mps. we vote with first past the post. you need the most votes. ryan: we do that in the states as well. what is all the talk about the prime minister's needing a majority vote? anna: that is the next step. the parties want to get a majority of the seats, at least 326 out of 650 in parliament. it is not enough just to get more than the others. ryan: that's just like in the u.s. what if one party fails to get enough mps to form a government? anna: that is called a hung parliament.

that is what happened in 2010. they had to pull together in a coalition. it looks as if the major parties will win even fewer seats and that is when it gets exciting. the main parties will scramble around to make a deal with one or maybe even three other parties just so they can form a state, or government. ryan: and why can't the biggest party just go it alone? anna: they can try, but laws are passed by majority vote. so without majority support governing could get difficult. we may end up having another election in less than a year. ryan: that is to be avoided. [laughter] mark: an hour away from the start of equities trading. caroline: this is a fun piece. this is interesting.

over the years, you are not meant to be able to buy party political broadcasts. but what if youtube? facebook? many videos are being put out by conservatives, by green, by labor -- throughout the election. it is changing up the rules. why can't you buy an advertisement to run on broadcast channels if you are doing it on youtube? youtube has seen 1.5 million hits for the conservative party. meanwhile, the green have got one. mark: champions league semifinals last night -- madrid won last season, 2-1, and they will go back in a couple weeks. barcelona, very sexy. caroline: more excited about that than the election? mark: more excited about the

election -- i am going for barcelona in the final, which will be dynamite in spain. caroline: "countdown" continues in the next hour. ♪

.. ..

mark: global bonds slide extending the route that has erased $340 billion in value in the last week. investors eye the fed over an interest rate hike. we bring you the latest. >> adding to that, greece points the finger at european creditors as a deal to get bailout funds remains elusive. we bring you on the late -- bring you the latest on the day greece is set to pay back the imf. mark: in the u.k. parties 54 every last vote.

we go to westminster ahead of tomorrow's general election. >> a $50 billion market value, salesforce. we bring you the details. mark: welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am manus cranny. mark: caroline is over there. >> good morning, caroline. carolline: good morning, guys. i'm going to be racing off to see the chief executive. numbers haven't broken, but we are getting numbers from the u.k. company. manus: earnings are out. in addition to the numbers stick around.

we have the ceo, john rogers. mark: awaiting details from sainsbury's. we are expecting a net loss because of property write-downs. we could see the first drop in underlying profitability in 10 years. let's get to imperial, and we will come back to sainsbury's. caroline: we are getting a first-half earnings per share of 89.5 pence. overall, we are seeing a tax rate of 21% and an interim dividend which they have promised to keep increasing at 10% per year, 42 ap per share. net sales coming in at 2.9 5 billion pounds and an adjusted operating profit of 1.3 billion pounds. keep an i on all these numbers.

they say they are on track to achieve their 2015 target. the 2015 target has been to raise the dividend by 10% overall. they have been trying to aim for savings as well, of 300 million pounds per year by 2018. we will see if that's on track. what is happening in russia a thing+++

are in russia, and they are seeing -- eight8% of their volumes are in russia. the biggest u.k. seller of tobacco. we have the labour party saying they would improve for -- pay for improvements in our health system by taxing tobacco more. we want to hear about standardization of packaging in australia, ireland. obesity done with the ceo -- i will be sitting down with the ceo later today. dividend coming in at 42.8 pence. mark: breaking news from sainsbury's. we have a beat. it is its first decline in annual profits and 10 years, but underlying profit did come in ahead of expectations. 681 million pounds. a year ago, sainsbury's unveiled profitability of 7.9 8 million. the profitability you can call it underlying, adjusted profit -- it has shown its first annual decline in 10 years. retail sales for your including vat, down .2%. like for like sales down by 1.9%. the sales decline continues at

sainsbury's because of the squeeze by discounters like aldi. we are awaiting a net figure. bloomberg analysts expected a net loss because of a property right up similar to what tesco unveils. interestingly, underlying profitability did eat estimates. for sainsbury's, it is a day they wouldn't have wanted to achieve. we will bring you more details on those figures with the ceo in just under half an hours time. do stay tuned for that. manus: absolutely. caroline is going to get ready for the cfo. let's talk about greece. again, more finger-pointing going on, this time from greece to the creditors. no deal will be possible until

the european commission and the imf reduce the number of nonnegotiable redlines said one government official. the comments come as the ecb's governing council meets in frankfurt to discuss emergency funding for greece's banks and an imf payment of 200 million euros. that comes to today. bloomberg's correspondent is in athens. paul gordon is with us. the impasse over the deal, it is still there the imf: on the creditors one day to reconsider the amount of debt. yesterday, the greeks saying the redlines need to be changed. it is turning into a war of words, isn't it? >> it is coming at the worst time ever. we just had a really positive change in the tone of the discussions. you have european and greek officials saying negotiations

were under a positive climate, that they were progressing. now greece points the finger to its creditors saying it is their fault. it's because the imf and ecb have a different agenda. the imf is looking at labor and pension reforms. indeed, i think that this came at the most wrong timing ever. let's hope it goes unanswered. manus: i want to turn our attention. it is the weekly cliffhanger isn't it, for greek banks. will they or won't today, the ecb, continue to state-fund the greek banks? that is probably in an appropriate way to refer to it. paul: the point here is, the ecb

may continue to allow the greek central bank to replace the deposit outflows of the commercial banks but under what conditions? there is rising discontent in the governing council as greece veers closer to a default, which would direct the banks. the euro system is on the hook for some of those payments should the greek central bank lose money. one argument is that ela should be reduced. that could precipitate a crisis. the other is increase the haircuts on the collateral, the discounts on securities. that will be something that is debated today in frankfurt. it is a thorny issue. we may not get a decision today but we will get a lot of talking. manus: thanks for your take on that. the ela may indeed be reduced

rather than increased. thank you very much, gentlemen. mark: two days until voters head to the polls. let's go to anna edwards in westminster. what happens then on this last day of campaigning? anna: good morning to you. the last day of campaigning, and the challenge for these parties is to get around a number of seats. a number of them are traveling the length and breadth of the country to shore up those constituencies. tomorrow, 650 mps will be elected eventually to the house of commons in the seats behind me. the polls aren't giving us any clues. we still have the conservatives and the labour party you can you can the polls. the ashcroft pull puts the

conservatives a couple percentage points ahead but that is not very material. some of the spread bets are giving us interesting calls. forecasts that more seats will go to the tories, and some computer models that have been running suggesting the tories are on track to get more seats maybe between 270-290. that seems to be the range. interesting news flow overnight -- david cameron is widely reported to declare victory in this election, even if he hasn't got a full coalition put together. just because he wins more seats that might be enough for him to declare himself successful and that he intends to remain as prime minister. gordon brown, the former leader of the labour party, in the context of those comments, suggesting that that takes the wind out of the fmp's sails.

he was saying that actually the s&p will be left noisy on the sidelines if david cameron manages to stay in power as prime minister. mark: what are the key messages that parties will want to get across today? anna: we are going to hear some of the messages we have heard throughout this campaign, some of those being reinforced today. david cameron and conservatives are going to try to unite their themes around stability, strength of the economy. cameron is going to say, you can deliver stable government or risk it all with ed hillebrand -- milliband. ed miliband will talk about working families.

the labor for a government that will put working people first. back to you. mark: what about building coalitions? are we any closer to knowing which side is working with another? anna: it could be a web of conversations taking place. these negotiations are taking place behind the scenes. the liberal democrats will have to work out who they want to pair up with. they have been open about their willingness to go with either the conservatives or liberal democrats, and that is one of the key messages they will be continuing to give. nick clegg was warning yesterday

that we could end up with another election before christmas if various situations unfold. that is something to look forward to surely. mark: you better stay outside until christmas at least. thanks a lot. [laughter] manus: from politics to luxury, the world's largest luxury carmaker bmw deliver numbers this morning. a 21% jump in first quarter profits. is it enough to keep bmw in the lead pole position? ryan chilcote is here. charles: the answer is -- ryan: the answer is a resounding yes for now. have already and mercedes nipping at bmw -- you have audi and mercedes nipping at bmw's heels. they reassured investors with a beat today. they made morning then and fosters -- more money than investors thought they would make. two things going on, europe and the united states -- the x5s5 did

really well, made in south carolina for the u.s. market. it also shields them from the problems of the euro. also important things -- they are sticking to it. pretax sales growth is going to be between 5% and tending percent. they did say sales growth in the first quarter was 5.1%. you can't get too much closer to the lower end of that range, can you? they did say they're operating margin is 9.5%. their target is between 8% and 10%. they are much closer to the top end of the range. this is going to be reassuring for a lot of investors who were put off, sort of had their nerves rattled when the ceo recently was talking about slowing growth in china, which is a big issue not just for bmw

but perhaps in particular for bmw versus mercedes, which is having a better time. mark: we've got a change at the top coming up? ryan: exit norman wright hoffer, the ceo. he's going to the chairman's office. harold kruger is going to become the new ceo two days before my birthday. send your gifts. [laughter] this is a guy who knows products. he's the head of product, harold kruger. they've got 15 models in the works. all the analysts are clamoring about is the company is facing a headwind because it is in this awkward spot in its product mix. it doesn't have that many new products out there just yet, so that is aiding the likes of mercedes and audi. yet we heard from bmw this

morning saying they actually have a tailwind from products they introduced last year. when you introduce a new car, it gets a couple years of traction, not just one. they are coming out with a huge number of cars later in the year , the grand tour being one of them, and that should happen -- help them. how long can they stay on top? mercedes and audi are not too far. manus: u.s. sales have risen for 60 straight months. ryan: it's extraordinary growth and it has definitely helped to offset the china front. mark: the top stories on bloomberg this hour -- oil extending its jump. the u.s. supply glut is easing, futures gaining as much as 1%. crude inventories fell by 1.5

million barrels. microsoft is evaluating it did for salesforce.com after the cloud software provider was approached by another buyer. salesforce has a market value of over 50 going dollars and is working with investment banks to determine a response to approaches. france's second-biggest bank societe generale reported an increase in first-quarter profits. net income rose 268 million euros. chief executive frederick didier told bloomberg things are looking up for the lender. frederick: structurally, i would say things are improving overall economic, particularly in europe. we see that on the ground. there is a general feeling things are improving.

manus: join us both, all of us on twitter. i am @manuscranny. go to my twitter account, and you can find out what kind of price tag van gogh got at some of these -- sotheby's. mark: the u.k. election tomorrow. what is the uncertainty doing to the guilt market? we will ask our next guest. ♪

manus: one more day to go of campaigning out there, and it is the most uncertain collection in the united kingdom in political history. let's have a look at the knock on effect on the british pound. i find it ironic, overseas

buyers bought the most bonds on record last month with less than a month to run in perhaps the most uncertain political outcome. are they mad? john: the month on month numbers are very volatile. if you look over 12 months they had been buying, but less than what they were a few years ago. there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome for you to some extent, overseas investors are relaxed. if you end up with the uncertainty that ends up making it hard to form a government at all, if there is instability in the global context, investors will be relaxed. mark: don't worry too much, are you saying? john: i would become except there seems to be, every time we end up with this uncertainty for weeks about who is going to form a government, what sort of mandate will they have will it

be a minority administration which is vulnerable to failing in a number of months and triggering another election and if that is the way it unfolds, that is more of a problem. manus: we are back up around 2% in government bonds. you say that liquidity will come back into these bond markets, or buyers will resurface. they will get involved. john: the lull in yields is somewhat behind us now. anytime we see a selloff, certainly in the u.k., a lot of pension fund demand remains in the wings. when we see any material back up in yields, they have emerged to take advantage of that unless people are convinced that yields are going a lot higher in the short to medium term we'll see some demand come out fairly soon. mark: 340 billion is the magical figure.

that is the amount of bond losses in the last week. what is going on? how would you explain the sudden up shoot in yields in the last seven days? john: i think it had its roots in the eurozone. to a degree, it goes back to qe. it was so telegraphed. it was all priced in ahead of the event. we did see ongoing rallies in european government bonds, but one sellers tested the waters, they found little resistance. yields have risen dramatically fast. we've seen an improvement in the data in the eurozone, which has people wondering, will kiwi -- qe run fully? the fact that there is a lack of liquidity in these markets has sent the yields shooting higher. manus: do you think it's the end

of the deflation trade? if there were a number of factors that drove you to zero do you buy that as a consideration? john: we've gone to more fundamentally sensible levels. yields are still historically low. inflation, and yes, deflation looks like less of a worry, but there are still serious issues unresolved. agrees hasn't gone away, and it may badly rot. the data in the u.s., for example it is unclear how that recovery is a evolving. there are still some concerns. having seen the selloff in government bond markets, fever going to settle down, and we are going to wait for the next page of the story to reveal itself.

for now, those risks of deflation and low yields and rates seems to be retreating somewhat. mark: as you said, based in europe -- the data in the u.s. has been mixed. john: first-quarter growth may be revised to show a negative quarter. this debate about when the fed moves rates is dependent on growth picking up again. mark: which would be good for the bond market. john: at the front end of these markets, that is what we've been seeing. there was the expectation that the fed might go as soon as june. that has been pushed to september. is this going to be another year where we start in q1 with a lot of expectations that monetary tightening is going to happen, but as the year progresses so the debate fades away? at the moment, the jury is out. the data in the u.s. is next, at

best. manus: would you hold the theory -- one of our guests said, the bank of england will go this year. bank of england, john? john: at the moment, we think they will go in november. if we get some clarity coming out of the election tomorrow we will harden our view that could happen. if we end up with this unstable government, minority government it may be that that in itself is enough to push the bank of england further back. rates may not go up until the second quarter of next year. mark: if you are a guild investor, what is the dream? manus: a minority tory -- john: a minority tory government that could install monetary policy. manus: john rafe, head of u.k.

rate strategy at ubs. mark: sainsbury posted a profit drop on overall results for the year. let's ask the cfo himself, john rogers. he is up next. stay with us. ♪

manus: welcome back to "countdown." let's check in on the exchange rates. janet yellen speaks today. the dollar index is trading lower, down about 1/3 of 1%. the trade deficits highest in years in the united states. the dollar is going to continue to lose momentum the reason being that european yields are rising. people are buying european government bonds. goldman sachs said, it is a

tantrum, and they had pretty strong calls in terms of where they think the dollar will get. let's take a look at the kiwi, the new zealand dollar. we are at a three-week low on the kiwi at the moment. as you can see, we are trading down by nearly 1%. the reserve bank of new zealand will be forced into cutting rates. that is the view from the market. wages were low. the next support layer for you is .7478. mark? mark: the u.k.'s sainsbury is reporting the first acclimating operating profit -- declining operating profit in a decade. it's a milestone that probably is difficult to stomach for you

and your shareholders. will it be the same next year, or is this a one-off? >> we will see how we perform going forward, but as you say, if has been a tough market in u.k. food retailing. we have announced a drop in profit. that is a beat to market consensus. we have beaten market expectations. clearly if has been tough, but in the context of how we fared relative to our peers, we outperformed the market. we can take some encouragement from the results. no one takes comfort from a drop year on year, but we have been relatively resilient compared to our peers. we announced a new strategy six months ago. we are constantly going forward. mark: like for like sales is a metric that geeks like ourselves

like to look at. on a yearly basis, it is down by 1.9%. you said that it will be negative in the current fiscal year. on a periodic basis, i think you are down for five straight periods after 30 of gains. another year of declining like for like sales? can you not see any improvement? john: it is not just geeks like yourself. we pay close attention to the like for likes in the business. what you have to remember is we are seeing for the first time in many years food price deflation. we are seeing food price inflation in our business on the order of 2.5%. that is good news for customers. we are seeing volume increases come through in the last quarter

of the last financial year. we hope that trajectory of volume increases will continue, but clearly, deflation is going to be stable for the next nine months, if not longer. that food price deflation is reflected in our outlook of negative lecture likes for the year ahead. we are performing very well in this sector. supermarkets are clearly under considerable pressure, but there are parts of our business that have the fantastic scope for future growth. online is 7%. some great aspects to our business, which are demonstrating good growth for the future. mark: the likes of tesco, they are pledging to prioritize investment in its customer offering above short-term profit. will you match tesco? father price cuts -- are there price cuts a threat? wendy you say, a enough is enough?

john: price is clearly an important thing for customers. we need to be competitive on price. we have never been more competitive on price than we have been today. price isn't the only factor in this market. clearly, having a differentiated offer is just as important whether that is differentiation through the quality of the product or the service delivered. we think we outperform on those factors. price becomes eroded at the point of competitive advantage because everyone is at the same price. that should play to our advantage in this market where we clearly have a strong bland -- a brand and fantastic service to our customers, areas we have outperformed our compassion -- our competition on. mark: i have to ask you about the u.k. election. has there been any change in spending habits in the u.k. in

the run-up to tomorrow's election? have we notice anything unusual or any slight change in habits? as we know, the outcome is very uncertain, isn't it? john: people are still eating food. we haven't seen changes in the patterns of what they buy over the last couple months, but clearly what we have seen is that disposable income has improved on average by about 16 pounds a week. that is good news for customers. we see that money being spent on discretionary items like cars and eating out and holidays. it has yet to come through to the food retail space. over the next 12-18 months, hopefully, we will see some upside. mark: we love to hear your thoughts as a businessman. i know you want to be as neutral as you can be, but do you have a preference? does sainsbury's have a press friends -- a preference?

john: we will clearly support any political party that does the right thing by consumers, by our customers. one particular issue of importance is the area of business rates. we spending over half a billion pounds a year on business rates. we feel the system is an enactment acoustic -- anachronistic system. mark: i've got to ask you about the cuts you are making. on april 23, you said you were cutting 800 jobs. you are putting a greater emphasis on customer-facing roles. what else are you planning in the cut -- on the cost-cutting side? john: we are delivering cost savings from a number of areas. you've made mention of some

restructuring we've done in our stores, but equally we are making investments in our supply chain systems, which deliver less waste, and that delivers a cost saving. we are investing in our energy-saving programs which year on year continue to produce significant savings. it's about making the processes in our stores a lot more efficient and a lot more attuned to the needs of our customers. mark: market share -- your market share depending on which company measures you, whether it is nielsen or cancer, you are around 16%. i was looking at aldi. 5.3%. you probably don't want to say yes, but do you ever foresee a day when we see littles and au ldis gain 10% market share?

do you ever see a day when these two can attain 10% market share? john: clearly, the discounters have been growing rapidly over the last few years, but what the numbers now show is that the rate of that growth is starting to come off. perhaps that is a reflection of the increase in disposable income that many customers are seeing. perhaps that is reflection of the saturation of their particular offer. nonetheless, we have said they occupy about 9% of the market. we expect they will continue to gain market share may be on the order of up to 15% market share but that is a scenario we have planned for within our business. we've got parts of our business like the convenient sector which is growing at 17%, a rate that is equivalent to the discounter's we have our opportunities to grow in the same way the discounters do.

mark: good to chat to you, john rogers, cfo at sainsbury's. manus: great interview there. not just geeks like you who look at the numbers on like for like sales basis. let's give you breaking news on all the ounce -- allianz. first-quarter net profit comes in at 1.8 2 billion euros. the market had an estimate of 1.6 4 billion. allianz are the owners of pimco. bill gross left, and that cause them problems at the backend of 2015 when they sign at exit is of funds from the pimco brand. allianz are confirming their full-year operating profit at around the 10 billion to 10.8 billion euros this year. that is above last year's, which was 10.4 billion.

management of third-party assets under management 1.4 one billion -- 1.41 billion euros. they will publish full first-quarter details on may 12. that is the bottom line for them. they are confident in achieving a full-year profit target. everybody is focused on the devil in the detail, pimco. those are your corporate stories. let's tell you some of the other stories making the agenda. oil extended its advance above $60 in a sign that the u.s. supply glut is easing. futures gained as much as 1% in new york rising to the highest close since december. inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels. that is the first drop in industry data in eight weeks.

today is the deadline for the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu to form a coalition government. foreign minister -- if he fails to form a government opposition leader isaac herzog will be given the opportunity to do so. a proposed french law beefing up the government's spying powers sailed through the lower house of parliament. this follows the "charlie hebdo" attacks in january. the bill will now go to the senate, which can suggest amendments, but not overturn the assemblies vote. mark: how have u.k. assets perform since the 2010 elections? stay tuned. ♪

mark: welcome back.

how had u.k. assets perform since the 2010 election? my starting point is may 7 2010. that is the day after the general election. they're in mind it took five days to form the conservative and liberal dem coalition. the top chart has risen by 35%, possibly the most significant data over that period was the very 24th this year when the index pass the previous record of 6930.2 which has stood since 1999. comparing the ftse 100 other benchmark indices around the world can be a sobering experience. over the same time, the s&p 500 dropped -- jumped 88%. germany's dax, 88%. those gains are dwarfed by 158% increase for denmark's copenhagen 20 index europe's

best performer over this five-year period. the world's best performing index since may 7, 2010 venezuela's stock market index page it soared a mind-boggling 8891%. greece's asc slumped 51% in that time. cyprus, the worst performer down 92%. this is the bloomberg sovereign bond index. it is a gauge of u.k. government bonds. may 7, 2010 -- since then, that index is up by 36%. that beats the u.s. treasury market, up by 18%. it beats of the eurozone's sovereign bar -- bond market. germany's sovereign bond market is up by 26% in the same period. the european bond markets, which have outperformed the u.k., are

spain portugal, italy with a 44% gain, and ireland with a 72% return. let's finish with currencies. let's look at the pound against the dollar since may 7, 2010. in that period sterling has risen by 2.5% against the dollar and i looked at all the major currencies in the world. there are not many currencies which have risen against the dollar in that timeframe, only 21 out of 174 currencies we track of bloomberg have risen more than 2% against the dollar. the best performer is the somali schilling with a 116% gain. the worst performer is the myanmar kayaked with a drop of 99%. the euro, down 12%. the yen, down 24%. the swiss franc rose 19%.

there you have it, three fascinating charts gains for all three asset classes since the last election in may 2010. how will things look in the period up until the next election, whether that is in five years or before, as some are predicting? manus: let's take a look at greece. our next guest is confident in agreement will be reached with international creditors. let's get more with jonathan bell. that's optimistic. jonathan: the reason i think there will be an agreement is because both the greek people want an agreement and the eu have an agreement. if you have both sides wanting to try to reach an agreement they should try. mark: greece says there are red lines among the creditors and imf. we are hearing there are red lines within the syriza party are there too many red lines to forge a compromise?

jonathan: the imf has red lines in terms of the supply-side reforms, and asyriza -- syriza wants to do the things that can't be done. greek people would say, we prefer to stay in the eurozone and have austerity then be kicked out of the eurozone which i think is a real possibility at some point. you have to have supply-side reforms. if i were syriza i would say, let's side with the imf against the eurozone and say, let's get supply-side reforms, but in return, let's look at our debt and try to take a haircut to the cost of debt. manus: let's go abroad. i want to get to the bloomberg global bond markets over the past week, $340 billion lost.

the bloomberg all-world equity index, all countries has lost almost $1.3 trillion. equities are in transit at three times the pace of the bond market. what do you make of what is going on? equities down, bonds down. jonathan: the move in bonds is bigger than the move in equities . you've got yields that have gone up by 0.5%. germany, they've gone from what was almost zero -- it was .05% and now it is th .5% to do think the bond market has risen far too high. it had gone to yields that were unsustainable. everyone was so nervous that they went into german government

bonds. we are beginning to see a step back from that. the disincentive for equities is that there is this equity-bond correlation, that bond yields go up. you have to have a higher discounted rate on your equities . in terms of the global economy it is good news. it is quite surprising after having the bad u.s. first-quarter gdp number, but of course, oil is going up. unemployment has come down to a level in the u.s. that might be inflationary. i think it's good news for the global economy and should eventually lead to better earnings growth. mark: we all wish we had access to venezuela's stock market index. 8891% since may 7, the day after the election. u.k. assets haven't fared too badly, have they, on that simplistic basis, the ftse 100 the bond market, and the pound? jonathan: i completely missed venezuela.

my apologies to my clients. [laughter] we have had a good global recovery. the hiccup was the eurozone hiccup in the middle in 2011, but if you go back to 2010, that was just after the global financial crisis. markets got very low in 2009. we have seen a good recovery since then. the problem for the u.k., as is the problem for europe, is we haven't had the profit growth we saw in the u.s. u.s. profits are higher than they were pre-crisis, whereas in europe, we are struggling to get back to those levels. there is a long way to go in europe. i think it's possible to get there, but as you say, the u.k. has done well compared to the rest of the eurozone. mark: everybody comes on here and says, shave back your equity exposure. how long europe are you, or from what you just said should i consider reentering my long positions in europe and getting longer if we are so far behind the efficiency curve?

jonathan: if you look at europe look at the impact of quantitative easing. what impact has quantitative easing had when we had it in japan, the u.s.? the impact was it pushes the currency down and asset prices up. on the basis qe is only starting in europe, you should still be able to that the eurozone against the u.s. manus: great to get your insight into the bond market, jonathan bell. mark: we had earnings from the supermarket giant sainsbury's. let's get a closer look at the figures. charles allen we got this net loss. we had an operating profit drop the first in 10 years. charles: it was a drop, yes. essentially, they've given up six years of margin growth. it has drove -- just dropped back to where it was seven years ago.

mark: it's not a great surprise is it? charles: what the analysts used to call it is back salting the margin putting the margin up to compensate for the slow sales growth, and a essentially, that had to stop. they have had to put the margins back to where it is competitive with the discounters or more competitive with the discounters, and there is a whole degree of cost-cutting to try to change the business model so you can make profits in this environment. manus: this market is completely fundamentally changed. i can't actually use the word on air, what they've done, the convenience stores. they have ripped away from the heart of the big stores. convenience is growing. they have all made the same mistake, haven't they?

cannibalized. that is the polite word. charles: equally, if they hadn't done it, someone else would have done it. this is the point. either you got to cannibalize yourself, or use got to let someone else do it. tesco was first to do this. sainsbury's is next. the sales are nearly 50% higher than they are in the superstores. manus: take us forward 10 years. is that what we are all going to be doing? charles: there are twin demographics pulling in both directions. use got many more -- you've got many more, the aging population with single people in in it that prefer convenience, but we've also got a baby boom. there are going to be more family shoppers, as well. you've also got family shoppers moving online so they are not necessarily going to the stores themselves so much. mark: in a word, charles, who is

in the better place, tesco or sainsbury? charles: at the moment, sainsbury. mark: i did ask for a word. manus: "on the move" is up next with jon ferro. ♪

jonathan: what they 24 hours -- what a 24 hours. we are seeing the bond markets and i am getting to that. let's get into the global bond market. is it the beginning of the end of a bond rally? 200 million euros today and reducing credit demand.

a food fight. we squeeze margin at the supermarket. the polls remain in and night and the outcome is the most uncertain. >> it is flat. thank you very much. >> we know what he does. >> it is 55 and you have said it , is this the beginning of the view? selling bond