>> welcome to the most important hour of the session. i'm an steel and this is street smart. stocks are rising as investors weighed in on tomorrow's jobs report. yahoo!, a rebound in technology shares. posting is best advanced and's october after a new ceo was named. we are counting get -- counting down to earnings. street smart starts now. ♪ alix: the u.s. senate passing

legislation to let congress review a u.s. nuclear deal with iran after threatening to veto an earlier version. republicans and democrats agreed . $17 billion in several months. he does people with knowledge of the process straight executives are meeting with investors this week in new york. according to the wall street journal, the journal said ge is trying to hold onto bankers at least until the company exits the company business. alibaba naming a new ceo. daniel will become a new ceo on sunday replacing jonathan lu. the company replacing a 45 percent increase in revenue shares. you can see it on the news. less than an hour to go to the close of trading. scarlet fu is looking at the action on the street. scarlet: this morning, i leaving

-- leading ways to gain spirit every 2000 is down on the new york stock exchange. the dow jones is up by 100 12 points. points rising for only the third time in the past 12 days. a 15 year low. in terms of crude oil, looking at a drop of 2.4%. below $59 per barrel. the big driver in the markets today and this week has been bonds. pushing the 10 year yields lower for the second time in nine sessions only at the 10 year yield reached 2.1%. a lot of volatility in europe. the key here for treasuries in the past couple of weeks. michael says you are seeing a

decoupling and the worst may be behind us. i also added in because the british are going to the polls today for the general election. alix: once thing we are focusing on his yelp. reports the online review cited possible sales. cory johnson joins me with more. who are potential buyers here? there appeared to be many possibilities. >> we know golden's -- goldman sachs to the public for years and three days ago today it almost exactly three years since the ipo. yelp has been up against very big competitors. principally, microsoft, yahoo! and google more than anyone else. they ended up in the courts and yelp is one of the companies complaining to the ftc.

antitrust implications of people doing google search and results on local businesses. it could be attracted to any one the companies it competes with. alix: what kind of premium and syria has a lot of history of losing advertisers? cory: the growth in sales for yelp, the most recent, it grew 55% on year-to-year basis. it has seen a slowdown in growth and that is disconcerting for the owners of the stock because they hope advertisements would start to pay more. but yelp really is up against it. the real thing is, there is a pretty big change. people go straight to an app and that seems like it will be a great advantage to yelp, now making a profit but not much of

one yet and maybe they decided to see if someone else would take what they built and ran with it. alix: thank you for the update on you -- on yelp. stemcells any after a selloff yesterday with the dow raising its games for the year. we have seen a re-trade in global equities triggered by a selloff in bonds. more than $400 billion a race from global bond markets in the past two weeks. what is going on? lisa is joining me and my guess so's the hour, jonathan, a chief u.s. market strategist. jonathan, thank you for being here. you are the stock guide. what is going on with stocks? what makes sense? quite if you look at the army's season everyone went in concern fx would be the biggest issue when it would crush earnings. it is the best earnings season we have had in the last five plus years.

all of these issues proved to be not head wind at all for the stock market. what is interesting is they are proving to be headwind for the economy. companies are doing a brilliant job managing through that. alix: we have seen such enormous volatility. it is an incredible leap just in the last few weeks. what is going on? >> there are a lot of crossed wind here. heading into the beginning of the year -- look at that spike in volatility. letson brace that enormous spike. there we go. i say lot of people were short treasuries and elan the u.s. economy they thought, the economy will accelerate and the fed will hike. then we had a real not great first quarter. you had people do very well.

oil prices were plunging and this is very concerning for a lot of able to they thought, if we will see inflation, how will it possible if oil prices keep going down? all of these things were coming together to have people back away from treasuries. now suddenly it is about oil prices rebounding. you have the potential of reflation in europe. suddenly, the bond bears in the market are coming back to some degree and you're seeing positions filled and people are saying, there is no reason to own these stocks at low rates. >> i see it a little differently. you have a dollar that, since june of last year, it has come off a little bit but what is the effect of that? we basically took strong u.s. growth anywhere else in the europe -- in the world and shifted overseas for you see a pickup in economic activity in europe really at the expense of the united states.

you have seen the u.s. import, so import prices have come down by 12%. you have seen an equalization of economic growth around the world and that is why you have yields going up in europe and, in a really strange way, higher yields in europe are the driver of what is going on the u.s. and i do not think it has anything whatsoever to do with the u.s. economy. alix: if that is the case should u.s. yields be going down? we are importing more of a deflationary environment exporting our growth -- >> that with the lodge -- that would be the logical way to look at it. the maximum spread between the yield you can have on treasuries before people start to basically are the tries that's bred, that is where treasuries should be probably three or 3.5%. so they are being held down. putting it differently, if you

spread out the growth around the world a bit more evenly it actually pushes yields up even though the u.s. economy is giving up some of the incremental growth. alix: thank you so much, jonathan. you are sticking with me the rest of the hour and lisa, i will see you later in the show. we will take you to a conference in las vegas and find out when and how some of the biggest names in wall street are betting on the fed rate hike. plus, alibaba spiking today. more details are coming up. ♪

alix: seventh annual conferencealix: provides participants with the opportunity to connect global leaders with industry peers and is also a chance to talk with my colleagues there. take it away.

erik: thank you we are here with clay. you made your returns as mortgage investor but you graduated to multi-strategized credited investing. the things that you're in now which i understand include stocks, what do you like the best? >> we have been increasing our exposure to commercial real estate loans. i think it gives a terrific risk versus award. it can be idiosyncratic where it is not an expression of pure spread tightening. it is a part of the market we really like right now. stephanie: where are you in terms of, do you feel like you are at the seventh inning as far as liking the trade? crisis is a business and not a trade or when we went into business in 2009, we did it for a couple of reasons.

stephanie: you could be at the beginning stage or the middle stage whether it is an investment or a trade. >> we are at the end of the lifecycle for the stress investing. the beginning of the lifecycle for a re-regulation of financial markets, which is giving my firm and firms like ours unprecedented opportunities over the next five to 10 years to invest in parts of capital structure were banks can no longer, because of dodd-frank and because of the risk-weighted capital, things nobody thought about 10 years ago. erik: your firm and firms like yours that flourish in the post crisis time largely by stress have evolved into other things but you are all, broadly speaking, similar to or you are doing similar things. you like the idea of seizing on

the opportunity created by regulation p are you and others talk about commercial mortgage-backed securities and direct commercial lending. should we be at all concerned that there are so many firms doing broadly similar things in similar markets? >> you are probably in an interesting seat in manhattan where you can talk to resident experts around the business. i agree it is a cottage -- it is a cottage industry. if goldman set -- goldman sachs report on this recently. 11 million dollars in profits per year were going to come out of the banking industry by 2017. it is a big number. non-bank originator's will have a meaningful impact on the market. no one will tell us how much capital we need to hold against certain assets. stephanie: is that goldman report speaking about regulation in general or specifically about your space? maybe what. is getting at it

seems like there are a lot of hedge funds right now singing that same song. >> goldman article in particular talked about the shadow making industry. it includes peer-to-peer commercial, student loan, some of the financial technology promoting a lending in that sector. there is a real and clear catalyst for change. loans that originated in 2005, 2006, 2007, they were 10 years in duration. by our analysis, there is a several hundred billion dollars funding gap in those loans. values are not back to the precrisis levels and leverage was too far extended. mortgages -- another 15%.

equity may have been 5% part of the capital structure. mortgages are 65% of the capital structure. it leaves an underappreciated sector we can help finance. erik: given the size of the opportunity, is there a chance here to create, particularly if you could match your assets to your liability, you're funny to your assets a giant firm? could something so. erik: i do not know that is what you want to do but it makes me wonder. it could be a whole host of new black stones. >> what is clear is we will not go back to 2005, 2006, and 2000 and. there will be a process where we see how capital could be funded. securitization technology is great. it originate distribute model,

that no longer works. but the retain model does work. when we can effectively source our own risk either through an origination channel or exclusive elite -- relationships where we can source and use technology to keep a part of the capital structure we want to keep, that works and banks do not want to do that anymore. stephanie: blackstone does it how challenging is it for you to be in that's ace when these private equity behemoths are in there in a big way? can i do not know what i do not know. they are a terrific term. they invest a lot of money. we are smaller, but listen, i think globally, there is a lot of opportunity and blackstone

built a business and has differentiated themselves in a lot of the same ways. they started 20 years ago doing a lot of the same inks, and that is a trend that will continue. erik: thank you. great to meet you. a good story, i think. stephanie: without a doubt. alix: thank you so much. we will check back with you later in this show. come out next, alibaba is saying the chinese slowdown could be a red flag third we will speak to a shareholder later in the hour on his position. ♪

alix: welcome back.

billionaire oil tycoon things oil prices are headed higher. he is going for $75 per barrel by the end of this year and 90 by the end of 2016. speaking to bloomberg in las vegas today, he also had advice for exxon. >> the only way that exxon could increase their production back to a level they had before -- i would say pioneer would be a good acquisition for exxon. alix: shares of yelp up. according to people familiar, the company is working with investment bankers and has been in touch with buyers. the company were halted after -- with the report. 2015 shaping up to be a record-breaking year for murders and acquisition -- mergers and

acquisitions are we already receive $1.5 trillion worth announced. a couple more megadeals 2015 could easily overtake 2007's record of 3.4 trillion dollars in deals. that is according to data compiled by bloomberg. still with me to look ahead of death that tomorrow's all-important jobs report, what you think? >> i think we will see a softer than expected number. if you look at the last two jobs reports, they have been decelerating. you had the report showing we are in line for more of that deceleration. economic data is coming in week. the dollar was so strong, it could cold water on the economy. we will be final and the long run, but this is a soft patch. alix: jobless claims are pretty

good p or do we are not firing our workforce. isn't that a good thing? classic you look at the unemployment rate, expectations are that it will go lower. i am not saying the -- the jobs environment is a disaster, but what i'm saying is we are seeing a slower pattern of data. people have overestimated it. not a disaster, but the risk is on the downside. alix: we have a real diversions between what the fed is forecasting and terms of rates and what the market is forecasting in terms of rate. do you think one has to catch up with the other? which is it? >> market has been basically selling that line short for the last nine months. the expectations keep getting lower and lower on what the fed will do because the stronger dollar has been a fed tightening

cycle. the market is saying if the dollar was doing the heavy lifting, the fed will just take this slower. the market is expecting 1.5% funds in 2.5 years from now. if you are in equity guy, you are now doing the happy dance. i care were they are taking it. if you told me they would get to 2.5 or two and three quarters at the end of 2017 thousand 17, that is all that matters to me. the real key is, what is going on, not with the number of jobs but wage inflation. if the fed feels they are behind the curve on wage inflation, then they need to jump ahead of it and cool it down quicker than the market at his face that is a problem. the actual job i think will be second -- secondary, at least to me. alix: good deal p or we will talk much more with jonathan coming up and coming of next the founder and ceo of qs are -- qfr capital management.

stay tuned. ♪

scarlet fu is looking at the movers of the session. hey. scarlet: let's begin with breaking news. cbs -- cbs reports ratings after the close. viacom said the ownership of those two media companies will pass on to a seven-member trust after he dies. no decisions made on who will succeed him as chairman of the companies, but his ownership will pass on to a trust. we will be breaking cvs earnings after the close. i also want to talk about yelp

prn know you have been talking about it as well. the review website is soaring. the wall street journal reported yelp is exploring a sale. since then potential buyers may include apple, google, and yahoo!. the company may be worth $66 per shell -- per sale. it continued to advance and progress and move higher throughout the trading afternoon. if you look at it over a one-month time, this has been a volatile name here. you can see there is a big drop back on the 29th of april, when yelp reported disappointing results and it fell to a two-year low on falling advertisement sales area if you look at it over a longer time, so for this year you can see it has been all over the place and has somewhat made up for lost ground. but again, over five years, look at it. it had its heyday back in early 2014 and since then, it has been on a slide down ever since.

this goes back to march of 2012 when the company went public. alix: airlines are climbing out of crude as well. the bloomberg u.s. airlines index seeing a big gain up 3.3% with all of the 11 members hire including names like american airlines. 11 year high. alix: thank you so much. the world passes biggest investors are gathering in las vegas where stephanie ruhle is there with a special guest. >> i will take a trip around the globe pair for my next guest, i'm speaking with jose. when we think about your fund, you run over $1 billion, truly global. you have got to start with greece first because it is the one name outside the u.s. on all of our mind spirit what do you think? who is a: -- hose jose: i grew up

in latin america. i grew up in the emerging markets. when you listen to the authorities of greece, it is a throwback to the latin america of the 1970's. these are people who have a conception of the world very different from what modern market-based economy requires. these are leftist people who understand very little about financial markets and have a hostile attitude toward the private sectors. they are true marxists. for the monitor union to work you need either the economies are very similar, or the economies are very flat.

in this case, you have very different economies and very rigid economies. my view is the decision to keep greece in the system today is mostly a political decision. from an economic point of view they are dissimilar and this will not work here it miss miracle may want to keep them in the union and they may give them liquidity. but, they may go out on a couple of dates, but this will not be a marriage. stephanie: those who say greece is in a much better shape than years ago, angela merkel is better prepared, you say no way? jose: i say that europe is better prepared because i think there are few institutions or individuals who hold any greek risk. if you hold any greek bonds in

europe, you should be shot. stephanie: if you are a european bank and hold any greek bonds you should be shot. jose: yes. the possibility this country, it has to create a new currency, it is high. it is material. stephanie: if greece is out, what happens to portable. jose: the activity between greece and the rest of the europe, today's close to zero. if it was an isolated case, if there were nobody else in the region, i would be the end of the story. the problem is the one you are alluding to. we now know the monetary union is not irreversible. we will look around and say, which country has similar dynamics and they will go to spain.

this is why it is important. our focus on who is next. i expect a strong reaction from the ecb if greece were to leave. that is why there is great uncertainty about the effect of greece leaving the euro on the currency. on the one hand, all of us will focus on spain and on the other hand, it will be a strong reaction from the central bank. stephanie: brazil. jose: the backside of south america. there are two sides. the good guys and the good women. these are boring. they had done everything well and behaves well. paradoxically, they will do well or badly over the next coming year in the markets mostly affected by external factors. stephanie: brazil, not so

boring. jose: the other side of the picture are the bad guys. at the bad extreme, venezuela and then you have brazil heading in the way of argentina and venezuela. let me make a long story short. brazil has a difficult adjustment going forward, very difficult. a multiyear adjustment. a very big recession. big moves in the currencies. in these places, that is when there are opportunities. the most clear opportunities in brazil are things that other people have mentioned. i think in brazil, when interest rates cycles go to lowering rates, they are massive and brazilians are at the end of a tightening cycle.

then you could have 500 basis points of interest rates. that is a monster cycle of rate declines. i think it is not clear when it starts, but we are potentially in the presence of a very dramatic rate in a world where they might be raising rates. stephanie: before we go, because we have so many different sides of this, china, for you, is it a buy or a cell? jose: equity markets in the near-term, we buy with great caution. everyone is thinking, latin america will cover europe will suffer. the dollar will strengthen. that will be very difficult for them in their economy. stephanie: mojo's gracias. the ceo of qfr capital management in new york city. he is not just saying goodbye to

her i am signing off and leaves -- leaving las vegas. i'm heading to oregon and i will see you tomorrow. thank you for having me. alix: thank you. great interviews. i will speak with the chairman and director and his reaction to alibaba's global expansion plan. plus, counting down those earnings. after the bell come we will bring you those numbers. ♪

alix: a company reporting a rise in revenues but concerns on the dependence of the chinese middle-class putting pressure on the stock. the incoming alibaba ceo spoke today. >> like all global companies, alibaba had a transparent conversation with the government. we share the plans of development and address the

concerns. we do everything we can to make sure the business platform or -- are in compliance. alix: joining me now, michael, german of holland and company and director of the china fund. michael great as always to talk to you. how can alibaba shake off the weaker chinese gdp? >> one of the things he has spoken about in recent comments is his goal to have 50% of the sales up 9% now outside china. i do not think for a second he is about to abandon the middle-class, which excepted double in their last several years. 029% in a short time in terms of global sales versus china.

i think it he is someone to pay attention to. when he says he will do something, he does it. alix: jonathan, is that going to be a detractor overall for chinese stocks? you continue to see gdp grind lower on that chart. jonathan: i am not an expert on that stock but you by fast-growing companies because they take from everything around them. amazon does not do well because the u.s. economy does well. it does well because we use it more day today. if alibaba is able to do that they're really not depending solely on the chinese economy. alix: you buy it for exposure to india and other companies. >> because you think the economy will go up and down. we get a new iphone because it is a cool new iphone. it is not sibley because gdp will be stronger.

if they do a good job of executing -- >> i think chavez astley right. we have been investigating private and public these. the great thing that is going on , real numbers going on, they have been slowing for the last several quarters. they are down mid single-digit spear this last quarter in the real economy, revenues for alibaba were up 45%. that is up from a year ago when they were up 39%. this company is growing at a time apple is in the u.s. -- alix: we saw shares lose $90 billion in value over the last few months. how do you deal with that, michael?

michael: a great point. you have incredible moves to the upside $130 up from $68 at the ipo and over the next several months, people started talking about counterfeit goods and problems with the government and so many things, including the slowing growth of the middle-class. these were all of the concern spirited it goes down to $80 per share on monday. it made no sense. and then he reports what he reports. when he said the other day he will not grow headcount a single person in the coming year, people said, that is it and the company stopped growing. then he comes out with these revenues that just blew the cover. alix: what are the problems that my concern you? we do have charges over bribery and counterfeit goods.

there are legitimate headwinds for why the stock went down that have not gone that way. the set is something -- the thing is different this time around and with each new administration, it is different. he who runs the country now with an iron hand is really aggressive in terms of any correction stuff. i do not doubt for a second he will do anything to give the government any reason to be extra hard on one of the great growth engines, alibaba. i think they will continue to crack down internally on things like counterfeiting. at the end of the day, to answer your question directly a lot of ceo's is an investors in china have been moving relatively slowly in large part because of the anticorruption charge that is going on. they are afraid to do things that i keep hearing from companies over there on that charge. alix: hang on one second.

breaking news. scarlet fu. scarlet: yes, for your arms so you can track how much you have been running and walking, fitbit, they have charged for the ipo, $100 million. that is a placeholder and will not be what it actually raises. it is just a placeholder for now so they could calculate fees. a listing under the ticker f i t and is looking to sell shares mortgage stanley. it also says according to this regulatory filing that it will not be receiving any of the proceeds. it is a way presumably for the backers and other early investors to cash out of this investment. fitbit is looking to file an ipo or it has filed one on the new york stock exchange. just a couple of numbers here included in this perspective.

the 2014 revenue $745.4 million , up from $271.1 million presumably a year ago. it was profitable in 2014. and in a income from a loss of 51 point $6 million, prism of a year ago. alix: thank you so much. what is it about the market now making ipo process so much more interesting than a year ago. >> there are a couple of ways to look at it. one thing, the cost of capital is really cheap. i think there are investors looking at the ability to borrow or for companies to access the market confidence is up for investors. you are talking before in terms of general activity and all m&a activity, it has really been quite strong. alix: is that a concern if you

just look at the m&a market, for example? we saw a lot of leveraged buyout spirit it was not necessarily a good thing. classes you look at the amount of m&a activity we are seeing it is very typical as the cycle matures, that you always see continued pickup inactivity. i do not rank it is out of line with what you have seen in other expansion times. if you have what i think will happen, this recovery continuing to's -- to extend, we will see more m&a activity in 2016 than in 2015 at i think it will continue to trend higher. alix: is there a to station for you in the late 1990's versus now? >> he yes. i do not want to comment specifically about fitbit. you're looking at the fact they are profitable. you look at the percentage of companies profitable in the nasdaq, for example, in 2000

compared to today, it does not look at all the same. it is a much higher quality company. the leveraged etfs company in general is taking on as much lower. yes, i think these are much more conservative investments than they perhaps would have been. the valuations are quite reasonable in a lot of cases. alix: earnings season is wrapping up. revenue is expected to fall 3% this quarter. where did the growth go? where was the tax windfall from oil prices? why are we seeing that negative? >> so of that, about 7% of the weakness came out of the energy sector. so all of the belief that energy was going to be a positive, it was not the case. there was some of that but this

is really the energy sector. the question is outside of the energy sector, what does it look like, and it looks more like 3% a so-so number. eps outside the energy sector is coming in at 11. alix: you have got buybacks and dividends. >> companies are managing margins way better than we think. companies will keep pushing margins to higher highs and investors say they will not be able to squeeze more cost out and they keep doing that. in a week revenue environment like what we are in, companies are managing margins easier and investors keep underestimating how good a job corporate management is doing. alix: very sunny. jonathan, rbc capital markets turn a pleasure to have you here with me throughout the hour. we are counting down the earnings. a close is coming up next. stay with us.

♪

♪ this is "street smart. the s&p rising from a one-month low and investors wondering if the jobs report will paint a clear picture of where the u.s. economy is headed. we're counting down the earnings from cvs. we get right to scarlet fu at the breaking news desk. we are snapping a two-day losing streak and seeing stocks moving -- losing a little bit of steam. scarlet: stocks were up and down

all morning long. they were looking for direction and seemed to have found it throughout the afternoon. still, if you look across the sectors, nine out of 10 of the groups are higher. 21 out of 24 groups, if you want to slice it that way, are gaining. an update to the dollar as well p are jobless claims near a 15 year low. wti also closes near section lows. in terms of treasuries, i want you to come inside because treasuries finally caught a bit. the 10 year yield actually came down. it did go about 2.3% earlier today, but it is now down to .18%. most of the movement in the treasuries has been driven in the european bond markets. that has been the driver here p are we are seeing a little bit of decoupling here as they continue to sell off and treasuries snapped that decline at least for today p or maybe it is a treasury bond selloff

interrupted, really at this point. i also want to mention before i go, fitbit filed for an ipo. the paperwork just came through. a regulatory filing. a listing under the ticker fit. it did not really say how much it plans to raise. it is just a placeholder here. bloomberg was told in december it was looking to raise $150 million term we will find out more as the days and months go on. alix: thank you i'm joined by lisa abramowicz, and cliff noreen. a pleasure to have you all here. i want to read to you what tom said today. he said, the weakness in equities is actually a good thing. the worst stocks do going into the jobs report, the better the subsequent performance. does that make sense to you? >> i did read his story before i

came in and it makes sense, yes. he is saying we have a bad number, it will be a good equity market. he is forecasting a better equity market tomorrow. the economy will be fairly weak. we had a very weak number last month. 126,000 every month before that was over 200,000 jobs. alix: so we are seeing a potential bad number, more fed in the market? lisa: i think this is partially a breather as well. there was not a clear-cut catalyst. it could just be people recalibrating the that is the feeling i am hearing. people repossessing that -- every family has not been terribly awry in the past days. it has been a hick up it might have been oversold. >> i tend to agree with lisa that there is a reassessing of

that here not only in the u.s. but also, the dollar, and obviously european sovereign yields. that is more what is impacting the story here. i do not think people are anticipating a week number four tomorrow alix: so the day before the big jobs number, here are the numbers, up about 83 points on the dow, the nasdaq settling up 25, all in all, a settle eight today losing streak, -- settle a two day losing streak. in terms of currency, the dollar snapping a two-day losing streak so as carl and cliff were saying, we are still off. as far as cbs and nvidia we are going to bring in those reports. and cliff noreen let's get into

it, jobs, cliff, what do you expect? cliff: we have had very strong earnings out, and i have then on the optimist excited this. alix: carl? carl: i am more conservative in my estimate, i think we are better than we were in march but that is not saying much, i am in the camp believing that it is not just these transitory factors that we saw in q1 like with port traffic delays and all that stuff, i think we are feeling the impact of the strong dollar in the industry sector, and giving insult to injury is the accumulation that has shown up in the gdp numbers, which has given this sector all the reason to hold off on hiring, so better than march but worse than consensus. alix: mike question -- my

question is, are we still better off? i think -- lisa: will the bond markets really rally that much? alix: that is the question we are going to answer tomorrow but let's go to the breaking news desk with scarlet fu. scar? scarlett: $.78 per share was the adjusted earnings for the quarter, that is higher than what analysts anticipated for cbs, they were looking for $.75 and that is basically in line again, analysts were looking for a drop. in terms of revenue, that decline, but it is higher than what analysts were looking for, and in looking for a reason why revenues were down, it is interesting here, because cbs said the quarter was affected by the broadcasted viewer and the playoff game, so one less layoff game with the nfl accounted for

the drop in revenue from the same time a year ago, also, they had lower advertising revenue at the local level as well, and in terms of different divisions, it was higher than anticipated in entertainment, and that is higher than the average analyst estimate, and publishing with less than anticipated, versus the consensus estimate. alix: thank you so much, scarlet. cliff, can you wind this down, what has been that the guest take away? has the stronger dollar affected companies as much? cliff: it has not, we are stronger than we were a month ago, and the first quarter was projected to be down and over 400 companies have reported their earnings, and they are down between 0%-1%, so it is better than expected for a margin of improvements but the impact on the dollar overall, i

think it is a, better than projected. alix: how does that make sense in the economy? revenue is down and the economy is pretty mushy. carl: it is probably contracting in the first quarter. alix: right now it is 2/10 of 1% so how do we bridge this gap between better earnings and weaker growth? carl: i think it will be reconciled in short order, so we have these sort of short turn impacts from the currency fluctuation, and the earnings growth will depend on the current economic momentum over. -- over periods of time, and i think we will get important guidance on that in the job growth report. alix: when everything is back on the table, will everything shift around? carl: we will see a pretty solid gain, now we are starting to shift towards end of year, so to put june -- technically, it is

in play, i think you need to see a 2/10 or 3/10 klein on the unemployment -- alix: you have to look at the 30 year treasury, and what really matters to that is oil. according to data compiled by bloomberg in the past four months, yields in the last few months have been up in the past two years. what people are really looking at -- lisa: what people are really looking at is for oil to stabilize, and that shows that the demand and the growth are stabilizing in places like china and even europe and people are looking for some stability in their belief that we are not headed toward an inflationary cycle, which is the big fear. now that oil has stabilized and is increasing, the 30 year has responded a much in check.

-- responded pretty much in check. alix: how do these producers react to lower and higher oil prices? lisa: that is a fantastic question, and that is what i will be personally watching, if oil does find some stability there is a good chance that treasury yields of the 30 year bond will start to diverge because people will feel confident because you know, everything is really good there but if there is volatility there is another layer of complication. alix: talking about volatility investors are watching german bonds, we saw the two weak rises in history. cliff: we have seen dramatic swings up and down, now we have to get used to bond volatility and currency volatility and there is less liquidity in the bond market and we have seen that in the last two weeks and there is less volatility in the

european markets, in the u.s. markets, especially over the last two weeks. alix: doesn't that totally change where money is being distributed to the world when you have that huge spike in bond volatility? carl: yes. alix: thank you. [laughter] carl: and given that move, it is certainly not based on economic data and -- alix: and the money supply is growing. carl: we have not seen anything in the past week or two to justify that, and to reallocate trades. alix: i was talking to jonathan golum about this and i said what are we even talking about with trade? and he basically said it was crowded opinions and a crowded guess because of these macro headways and these macro trends because of the central bank, and all of a sudden there is a little hick up and people are

not sure and there is a lot of -- hiccup and people are not sure and there was a lot of hesitation. alix: athens is prepared to go "down to the wire." brussels losing patient -- brussels losing patience? cliff i get e-mails from you all the time in the terminal saying, enough already. cliff: greece should just default, they have a tube in dollar economy, -- have a $2 billion economy, but they just have to look at the reality of the situation and they don't have the debt payment capacity to pay this debt back. alix: you're looking at 40 billion euros of exposure, and what is the financial follow and is there some kind of default? carl: we have seen this in prior rounds of concerns of this, and

there are countries on the periphery of greece and potential financial contagion. alix: unless we see massive move from central bank, will this inflate the greece economy? [laughter] carl: rather than push to the brink of the fault, we saw a revised forecast for the outlook in greece and the economy now is not about growth this year, so under the guise of a weaker outlook perhaps the austerity is good to be extracted from the greeks but over at third of time we might want to hold their feet over the fire. over the short-term it, we should not expect them to financial -- to service that debt. cliff: if this were a company it would have to default. there are no other options. alix: we are going to leave that

there and look at this on monday, but thank you so much, cliff thank you so much, carl, always a pleasure, and lisa, thank you. plus, emerging markets started tanking today after a warning call regarding valuations. ♪

alix: big day for tech companies, bit, the maker of fitness trackers, is filing for an ipo on the new york stock exchange. reports of that the online review site is seeking a sale, and gory johnson -- cory johnson joins me now. cory: the ducks are quacking, feed them, that is the old

saying on wall street. they like companies that are about profit and i just want to go to the fitbit meeting, and unbelievable numbers to me, how many fitbit do you think they sold last year? alix: 10000? cory: 10.9 million. what do you think the revenue was? alix: [laughter] cory: you must've looked how could they have possibly gotten a lot of gross margin out of that, 40% gross margin. alix: wow, that is huge. cory: their sales has jumped they went from $271 million to $745 million in profit, a profitable business, and if you take out the stock compensation

you have a 20% -- 26% even out margin. it is fantastically profitable i am completely shocked by this and i have been following this company, and i remember it when it was a couple of guys in a building in san francisco who made their first product, and i went on a walk with one of the founders, and he said that he would have a transformative effect on people's lives, and people would get a lot more fit by walking a lot. alix: but why bother when you have private investors giving hordes of money to investors, what does it mean than to go public? cory: who knows what it is for the fit founders and the board of fitbit, certainly venture investors want to get paid back so that model might change someday and one wonders if that is where we might get to in terms of investment when you

have companies showing such high valuation when it comes to cash returns, and this most common way of doing this is getting to an ipo. alix: this is an incredibly competitive arena. you have apple in there, so how can it compete in the public eye? cory: i don't know where they are in terms of market share but i do think they have the lion's share when i describe this product that i prefer, people say, oh, it is like the fit it -- fitbit. garmin has a share of these devices, and i am just shocked at how big this business is. alix: let's go to the other story of the day, which is of course yelp looking for a possible eye out today -- buy out today. cory: they talk about problems

with advertisers and the growth rate really coming off, and it is kind of right back to where it was a few weeks ago. alix: is this potentially a sale of necessity? cory: i would be curious to see what is behind this deal. this is almost to the day three years after their ipo, and the competitive situation for yelp hasn't substantially changed with the exception of google and been up their ability to post their own listings. google took some reputational risks saying that they want to give the best possible answers to their users. they want to get revenues there and keep the revenue away from yelp and may be yelp has decided that someone else is willing to take this risk more than their investors want to. alix: stock is down 16%, so who are the buyers? i have seen a very long list from priceline to apple to google.

cory: they have been in this for more than a decade, so has yahoo! and there are people who are going to want to buy yelp and know what their ambitions are, but only google knows, but when google is shopping, that is the kind of doors they will be knocking on. alix: good stuff, lots of news yelp, bit, love it, -- fitbit, love it. we are looking ahead to tomorrow's jobs report and what the feds would need to see for the 2015 rate hike. plus, oscar de la renta trained to it a new way of selling their goods. influencing how business is being conducted in the high-fashion world. ♪

alix: breaking earnings for you nvidia is just crossing the wire right now. scarlett: nvidia, which is the biggest maker of chips with graphics cards, had $.33 adjusted earnings per-share, the original estimate was $.34 nevertheless, this is the same estimate from a year ago, and the revenue is also a miss because analysts were looking for something higher, but again, an increase for the -- from the same time a year ago. the video is -- nvidia is also posting a raise, bloomberg projected nvidia to stay sable and it also returns $800 million to shareholders, -- stable and

it also returns $800 million to shareholders. in fact, we just have the headline, they have approved an additional $1.62 billion in stock purchases for this buyback program. the revenue numbers miss the analyst estimates so they are going to return more cash to shareholders, and in the second quarter, the revenue will be lower than anticipated, plus or -2%, and if you get that plus or minus 2%, you're going to miss the estimates. alix: thank you so much. returning now to tomorrow's jobs report, we have heard a lot about the macro picture, but i want to focus on a recent report from j.p. morgan. nonfarm payrolls dropping by more than 25,000 in march, the first time since mid-2009.

joining me is the author of said report he is an economist for j.p. morgan. what is the implication due to the decline in oil? guest: we think probably in april, it continued to do poorly, they remain pretty elevated so there is some pain there and it is probably going to last for a few more months, and i expect things to get a little bit better but it is definitely impacting the national numbers, at least in the jobless data is that the weakness in texas is being offset by strengths in other places. texas is definitely in a rough patch. alix: every oil job loss, how many jobs are lost in the real estate sector? michael: we don't know exactly but it is probably quite a bit, employment in the oil and gas

sector is only a small percentage in texas, but as you say, when you lose a jobs and the oil and gas sector down there, you lose jobs in other sectors, so there are probably two or three jobs lost in other sectors. alix: the initial jobless claims is coming in -- claim is coming in pretty good, or are we just not firing as many people? michael: i think it is going well, the jobless claims numbers tend to be a pretty high frequency indicator, and tomorrow we have a good number in part because what we have seen of the payback from last month, a week number -- weak number, and we will see more tomorrow. alix: you said the fed's goal for 2015 is two point 5%, can the fed meet the productivity goal -- 2.5%, can the fed meet

the productivity goal? they think growth --michael: they think growth is going to be pretty good i think the risk here is that growth remains good at 2% or 3%, you are going to see on of limit fall pretty rapidly like it has been over the past couple of years, and that would create a problem for the fed so they would have to keep unemployment rates from falling further. alix: we had unemployment rates from falling, but the productivity may not be rising as much as they think therefore, the growth is not as good as they think in the whole economy? michael: i think we're going to have to most likely lower our expectations to what we can get that does not put pressures on innovation. i think the fed is gradually coming around and lowering their expectation, but it is a slow process. alix: michael, thank you so

much i really appreciate you coming in to talk to us economic analysts from j.p. morgan -- analyst from j.p. morgan. weathering the economic challenges ahead, coming up. ♪

alix: welcome back to "street smart" i'm alix steel. you have the treasury rout coming to a halt today, and back to the breaking news desk, we go to scarlet fu. scarlett: let's start with cbs the television network it likes to call it self the most-watched television network, but it also has the most elderly viewing network -- grouping as well. there was a boost of earnings per share, and revenue, the top line dropped 2% because of programming costs so yes, cbs

is making all of these great programs on its network and showtime, but all of that cost a lot of money. they have to pay salaries as well as claire danes's salary. and there has been a steady decline throughout the day it is the second decline throughout the day, and if you look inside the bloomberg terminal, you can see the decline for shake shack. most of the trading action was concentrated in the first 90 minutes of the section and the last 45 minutes of the section and overall, let's hear -- let's look at some context for shake shack. so far the company only made its trading debut in late february, so two days ago, shake shack made a record high and i'm going to pull this down so you can see it a little better, there you go, it hit a record high, and the ipo is at $21, so in more than doubled, so there

is no specific reason as to why the stock fell today, but there is reason to be caucus about shake shack and evaluations are estimated at price earnings of 1223 times an estimated pe of 23 and shake shack is expected to report a's second -- a second straight quarter of earnings losses. alix: and here are the stories that we are watching after the closing bell. at least one booking it won't take bets in the patriots next season, and tom brady could be suspended for his role in deflate-gate scandal, the nfl report concluded that brady probably knew that there had been football's intentionally deflated for the last super bowl game. and the japanese videogame maker

is reporting annual profits due to the weak yen, that is for nintendo and softbank is investing $100 million in banjos. this is in analysts -- analyzing data in real-time, and it is the largest investment in u.s. tech startup. our valuations detached from reality? that is what jonathan gardner is saying, the bank has been bullish on china in making its first downgrade to the msci index for the first time in seven years. china is no longer going to outperform other markets, and we would like to recommend taking some profits, so for more on profits leland miller joins us leland, thank you for being here. leland: thank you so much. alix: what you think the outlook is? leland: they are pretending

there are numbers going into this growth and that is -- that it is affecting the market but you can do high-level margin trading, so this thing keeps's -- keeps going up, so the idea that valuations are high may not have any effect on this. alix: so there is nowhere else that you can put your money. leland: that's right, all the money was flowing into property, and then property did not look so good, so all this money had to go somewhere, so it went to the stock market, and the government is encouraging it so if you are making a call this someone is going to fall off immediately, then it is going to go to the pboc. alix: so what else is left in their arsenal of tools to help spur growth and help it trickle down to the stock market? leland: people keep talking

about how to get more money into the circulation? the problem is that firms don't want to bother -- borrow right now and they don't want to spend either. this does not work this way, we have been seeing this in our data for over a year now, firms are simply not wanting to borrow or spend. alix: we have heard some reports that there are miss -- municipal bonds with no guarantee from the government there would be no guarantee they would bail them out if they got into trouble. leland: they are trying to get rid of these bad loans, but it goes back to the idea are they able to spend the money? right now the answer is no. it is not that there is no effect, it is just that there is no way the market -- it is not the way the market expects. alix: you looked at specific data as far as the truth in china, and i want to show you china's rate traffic, and it has

been dropping. does that reflect 7% gdp growth? leland: well, to the extent that the chart is showing accelerated trends. whether it is bank lending or in consumption, rail cargo, the second that people acknowledge it as being a useful proxy china is going to manipulate those as well, so anytime you look at these data points, it is problematic, and you have to have some sources that are nongovernmental as well. alix: and one point do we start calling -- and at what point do we start calling china a developed market and not an emerging market? leland: it is political, these are political decisions, not economic decisions for the most part. alix: at one point -- what point does it start trickling down to

china, and how do we view the in terms of the dollar? not a temper tantrum, but an effect? leland: it will potentially have a huge effect, that that is looking at stronger effects on the dollar, they are going to see disruptions, so yes, the strengthening dollar is absolutely something that the fed is worried about, in terms of china, it is less susceptible than other emerging markets as far as a stronger dollar is concerned. alix: leland, thank you so much, leland miller, talking all things china. coming up next, the health care industry lost billions last year following online attacks plus, new yorkers are about to lose their minds. we're talking about allergies. plus, 91% of small business travelers say they spend more when they are traveling on the company dime.

details, next. ♪

alix: $6 billion, that is how much money data breach or's are costing the health care industry every year. hacking -- are costing the health care industry every year. joining me to discuss is luber ehealth reporter shannon pettypiece. you have covered this extensively, what is the cost of these breaches before them? shannon: the average breach could cost about $2 million, so that does not sound like a time of money, but a lot of these hospitals -- ton of money, but a lot of these hospitals have equipment that they could use

and they could use that on a fees or security experts or it credit data monitoring -- or credit data monitoring, so it is becoming a acre and bigger problem -- a hager and -- a bigger and bigger problem. a lot of hospitals are suffering with this now. alix: target had this happen, so what is to prevent -- what is the preventative cost? shannon: they really need that strong security on the back end, on the external system. it is not from malicious employees, hospitals right now are being targeted by some of the most sophisticated criminal hackers out there. the organized crime and the cyber rings are going after financial institutions banks, retailers, and are now going after retail -- hospitals, and

they need to bulk up against that. they have not had to worry about this until the past few years, and the reason is they have been digitizing their records, more and more information is going online, and the criminal element has realized that that is going online, and by the way, not only do they have information online but they have social security numbers, credit card information, so it is a whole fleet of fraud instead of just a credit card number from target that they use for a couple of days. alix: let's get you an issue that is affecting everyone including the, and that is new york city allergies, and this season has been described as the roughest. ever -- roughest ever. why is that? shannon: there was a delayed looming season because march was so cold so we have a lot of things all blooming at once. so it is the combination of

birch and ragweed but it is not just this year, allergies have been getting progressively worse. if you have noticed that your allergies are worse, it is due to climate change. there is more co2 in the air, so the more co2 there is, the more that pollen and ragweed can produce, and we have had longer growing seasons, so in some areas, ragweed is a big culprit, it has a growth. h period of a month longer. it's now at three or four weeks of allergies. alix: that means a lot more medication that i will take. i have two more pills that i have to take. shannon, i appreciate it -- well, i don't appreciate

allergies but thank you. and we are going to hear from more companies, coming up next. ♪

alix: this is "street smart" i'm alix steel, and here are the top stories we are watching out of the closing bell. a low-pressure system off of the east coast of the u.s. is becoming subtropical storm and anna, and the official start of hurricane season is three weeks away. lumbar liquidators is halting sales of chinese laminate flooring. they may have toxic amounts of formaldehyde. the company has lost half of its market value this year. paypal is helping to fund more than 40,000 small businesses worldwide.

the company's working capital unit has divided loans over the last year and a half and has announced that it is raising its highest alone limit by $20,000 to $85,000. online travel site expedia is looking to break into the corporate travel market. it is helping to save money on business travel, but is this a good business -- a good deal for a company long known for offering travel deals? thank you for joining us. guest: thank you for having me. alix: what kind of revenue driver do you expect this to be for your business? guest: well, the small business travel market is a very, very large one, 36 billion bookings in the u.s. alone over 120 billion around the world, so if we compete and get our fair share, this could turn into very big's nest for us and today

already 20%-30% are using business on expedia, so this is already pretty sizable. alix: what do you see in your topline growth with this? david: because 20%-30% of our customers are already buying business trips, this is a meaningful part of the expedia business and i think the key is as we launch expedia plus with a loyalty program, we are trying to provide businesses benefits, and the program that we are launching allows small businesses to save money on travel to save time in tracking the travel -- travel, to save time in tracking the travel that they do, and to reward their employees, and travel is up to 24% of up to a small business's expenses. alix: who are you trying to recruit? david: we have designed this

program to be accessible to all small businesses. there is no obligation to spend a certain amount. as long as you are a small business, we want to make sure that you get rewarded for the things that you naturally do when it comes to travel. alix: what part of this move, you could describe it as being expensive, you may be in a very busy market, you are now joined by amazon who is joining the travel business as well? david: this is a very large travel market, and such a large attractive market does cause a lot of people to want to go after it. that is why it is so important for us to keep innovating with programs like the expedia plus business program, which we think will really help stand us out in this space. alix: you say part of this in farm it is competition, but what about the business environment that makes this interesting? david: businesses are traveling

more than ever. 46% of businesses will actually spend more on travel this year than they did last year. that is because there is no substitute for face-to-face is this. -- business. businesses will choose to have face-to-face meetings whenever they can, so this is very relevant, more than ever. alix: how much can one business save with say, one employee, with this program? david: for every 10 nights that an employee stays at a hotel, we provide one back. each of those in total represents 17 room nights, so you add that all up, and i can record -- it can represent a very small large saving -- very large saving. i can -- alix: david, we have to leave it

there, and the rollout of high fashion, next. ♪

alix:: bloomingdale's meet folk -- call it bloomingdale's meet vogue. it is editorialist.com. what is editorialist.com? kate: right now you are seeing everyone kind of circle around

new media, traditional media is broken and they need to reignite the retail world, what is going to sell ad pages, and what is everybody putting out right now? there is a new interconnectedness and everything is at a touch point with a phone, on your desktop, and you need to figure out how you are going to connect and what is going to get the sales and the conversations, and with the advent of fashion magazines in the 19th century -- 20th century, they were such a powerful innovator of demand and how do you capture that demand and cultivate it with editorial content? alix: you are not just online or on mobile you have a print that is sold at barnes & noble, and you also have a brick-and-mortar store. what is the significance of still having a tent or product? kate: we do have a print issue,

and we just realized that our user wants to be at every touch point to route the day, whether it is social -- point throughout the day, whether it is social, whether it is mobile, that is what we wanted to be behind. alix: your sales revenue is up 751% year on year, you have 3.2 million unique hits per month, and that is about a three header percent growth in traffic since april of last year -- 300% growth in traffic since april of last year. that is unbelievable. kate: there is so much noise in online space and everybody is trying to get in and try to find -- trying to find that special sauce. whether it is a referral program

or an existing commerce company trying to label on content with content creators trying to create we come from a place where we buy in to the pieces that we in our editorial. so we are actually going to take stock in what we put in our editorial and at the same time it if we shoot something, if it does not have any commerce presence in our editorial, we have a college years who helped to connect those dots so it is a completely seamless, frictionless experience, and we are capturing all of that aspiration and all of that media and traditional fashion magazines, and we are connecting those dots. alix: thank you so much, kate hudson, but the e-commerce head of editorialust.com.

that is it for today, and we are going to break down tomorrow the job reports, have a great night, everybody. ♪

>> bloomberg politics presents election day 2015 in the united kingdom. ♪ >> cameron, miliband, charlotte, craig, who will be the next prime minister? or, who will be the leader of the party with the most seats in parliament to form a coalition government at the request of the clqueen? it all starts now on "with all due respect." across the pond, above and beyond.