mark: i mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. ♪ mark: happy national strawberries and cream day. on our very own stage, in midwest sized story, a funny thing happened on the way to the nomination, and the music man or it at first, oklahoma. we just got word that hillary clinton is making her official announcement on june 13.

'tis the season of the republican summit. today, the southern republican leadership conference in oklahoma city. jeb bush, marco rubio, ted cruz rick perry, you get the idea. today, scott walker spoke first written he delivered a new argument for why he is different. >> there are a lot of great people think about the race on the republican side. there are some people, some of those folks, particularly folks in washington who are fighting the good fight, waving the flag. but they haven't won a whole lot of victories. then there are other folks that have done an effective job of winning elections, a lot of them are friends of mine. they won a lot of elections but they haven't taken on a lot of those fights. the reason why i am thinking about what i am thinking about, we won't announce anything until

the end of june, i have yet to see anybody in the emerging field who has done both. going forward, we need somebody who can fight and win the battles we need to move this country forward commonsense reforms, that is what we need to move america forward. mark:john: you can catch all the action for the next couple of days. how politically potent do think that argument will prove to be? mark: 50% of it is pure dynamite. voters all across the country on the republican side say unions democrats, he is everything you could want. it is the other side where he could run into problems. jeb bush will argue that he is a more successful governor than scott walker. people start picking at his record in wisconsin. he can win elections. is he been as successful a a

governor? john: the electability argument gets you so far. there is no doubt he is a winner grid this doesn't take the argument to the next level. people care about the ideas and what you are going to do for them. we have heard some of that from walker, but this is more of a placeholder that anything close to a closing argument. mark: one of the things i have been struck by an part of his success within the republican electorate is that he's confident. he asked the guy who thinks he can win it. he is a warrior. john: he is. there is no doubt that there is the same hunger on the republican side for a winner than there was an democratic side in 2008. mark: in other news, jeb bush has a long way to go to convince americans he is different enough from his brother.

after struggling on the rock question last week, he spoke to the press and was asked what issue he is most different than his brother on. peers how he answered. >> in washington during my brother's time republicans spent too much money. he could have used the veto power. he could have proper discipline to washington, d.c. john: that was his choice to go with the question of budgets. is that an answer that the bush campaign will like or is it just not enough to separate himself from his brother? mark: the bush campaign will like it. he has decided that the fiscal terrain for which george w. bush was criticized is sacred terrain in the foreign policy terrain, i don't know whether given how seminal for voters the iraq and for part a c matters.

-- foreign-policy matters. mark:john: it is what he clearly thinks. he vetoed a lot of spending bills. he things republicans spent too much. because he is speaking from his heart, i think it was perfect pitch. mark: somebody will ask him what about medicare part b? john: he should say what he thinks. mark: your brother spent a lot of that money, buddy. john: i thought that was obviously better than the iraq thing. mark: reports say isis controls half of syria. the meeting today discussing the threat posing by islamic state militaries. obama described his strategy. president obama: we will continue to go after i sold --

after isil. mark: as to how to stop them josh earnest said that ground troops are not an option. >> the president is not going to be in a position where he is going to consider a large scale u.s. military deployment. for those who are calling on a change in strategy, i would encourage them to be specific. mark: from the other side of the aisle, here house and senator john mccain savaged in his own style the administration's strategy at a hearing on isis and syria. senator mccain: the white house press secretary josh earnest said, are we going to light our hair on fire every time there is a setback? i would point out from my colleagues that maybe his hair is not on fire but their body is

on fire in the streets over money. -- ramadi. john: this issue has blown up with ramadi. do you think that congressional criticism and the facts on the ground are at the point with a are going to compel obama to change course? mark: i got an e-mail in the subject line was, i want to meet you. turns out it was not -- the president will not change policy. john: you and other americans -- mark: the critics don't have a comprehensive plan that will work. the joint cheese have to recommend a plan but he will not change it raised on the criticism because they do not have an actual comprehensive land. john: here is that we know at president obama. he is in a mindset of i am going to do what i want to do and the

extent to which i'm going to get away with what i want to do i am going to do it. what he told the atlantic today, he said i don't think we are losing. he believes in his strategy. at this point, the lack of an alternative, but he still actually thinks they are on the right path. mark: hillary clinton, i want to meet you too. coming up, the exciting sequel to iowa. ♪

mark: yesterday we showed you parts of our democratic focus group in iowa. tonight, it is the republicans turn. we asked about whether republican can beat hillary and if they are overwhelmed by choices in the vast field? do you look at this whole republican field, dealer that

field and think, that is a pretty good field? >> i'm a little overwhelmed. there is a lot. there are lots of people. >> i think that it needs to be whittled down and hopefully somebody strong will rise of the top and that is scary right now. i don't see a good, strong candidate. mark: does another whether their candidate can attract more women voters accor do you think about it that way? >> no. mark: doesn't matter to you whether the candidate might have the prospect to attract more support from hispanic voters? or other ethnic minorities? does that factor into your thinking? >> not part of it for me either. mark: how many of you know much about scott walker? >> i'm open to anybody but we

need somebody who is battle-tested. somebody who will fight back to . >> he doesn't have a degree from college. mark: is that important to you? >> it is irrelevant. mark: is there anybody who thinks that not having a degree is disqualifying? >> i hate to say it but i think it is bothersome to me. mark: because? >> i don't know why. i can't tell you. but it strikes me as, i think that the president should have a college degree. if he was nobody, i think it would bother me, but because he has been a successful politician, it doesn't bother me because he has proved himself. >> he jumped the hurdle. >> he comes across as being genuine and having his thoughts and order on a lot of issues. mark: wisconsin elected him

three times for it what do you know about marco >> i like his background and i just like the way he looks and i saw him on television last night and i thought, he is talking good stuff. mark: you have a little bit of a crush on arco rubio? >> i think the kids call it crunching. >> he is the american dream. he built himself up and he is a self-made man. i think -- that's what we look for. mark: some republicans say he looks like the future but the last time we voted for somebody in their first term in the senate week up a barack obama and he was not experienced enough to be president. does it bother anybody in the room that marco rubio has only been in washington for a few years and hasn't even finished one term in the senate? >> i do think obama's problem is his lack of experience, it is

his lack of integrity and his pushing things through that has nothing to do with lack of experience, it is a character issue. >> i second that. >> it wouldn't bother me. mark: there was a lot of discussion about jeb bush and his use of the iraq war. i just want to know how much you guys of heard about that? >> i wish he would have known that question was coming. >> those good politicians can shuffle. >> it is in the past, just let it go. move on. there is more crap to worry about right now. mark: is there anybody in this room who knows about jeb bush's position? nobody in the room? >> with, core, i don't understand that. mark: have you heard about his positions on immigration? today bother you?

>> i have not heard his position. mark: if it is not those specific things, why is there nobody in the room who is more enthusiastic or curious about an? >> i think he is his own man but that bush name that people get, they get turned off in a don't know why they get turned off. >> he has a name problem. >> i think you and make a good candidate but just because of the name he just is such a native connotation that people just get turned off. >> at another he can beat hillary. because a goes back to bush versus clinton. what is going to happen? that scares me. i don't have a problem with them or learning about him but i am worried. >> it would be any different than the clinton side. if we are looking for electability, maybe take both out and start with somebody new. >> i think our country is a country and it should be run by

like a business and i don't think it should be run like a family business and that is what is going to happen if we get him in and i just think he seems to follow in his brother's footsteps and is not anywhere as near as charismatic as the data that is too bad. >> is to gather that is his last name. people are going to hold that against him and i don't think they should but it is reality. mark: what do you know about carly fiorina? >> she is a woman. [laughter] mark: that is true. >> she talks ready straight. i think she can hold her own with anybody in a bar fight or discussion. >> she could give hillary a run for her money. >> i have heard positive things about her that she is a good communicator and she knows what she is talking about. i have heard positive things. >> nobody isn't busy e-cig about the idea of another brick. rod? >> i like rick perry but i don't think you'd be elected, he is kind of in a third place so to

speak. mark: are you interested in my cockney? or do you feel like his time is past? >> i'm interested. i think he was smart to get his on tv and out there. so. he is when i am watching. >> i like him, i used to watch him on his fox show. i think he is very intelligent. i think he means what he says. i don't know if he can bring i am just so hung up on summary who can bring everybody together. >> i believe people continue to stand on his morals and we need that. we need somebody who's going to say to our constitution and said to what our founding fathers wanted our country to be. >> i think he is too conservative for the country. maybe not for iowa, but for the country as a whole. mark: what has santorum done wrong? are you not interested? >> he didn't win.

so why would i put all of our energy by hand and again? mark: the fact that he did become the nominee, you feel like, he had his chance. >> and might be harsh, but yes. >> he had the momentum coming out of iowa but he couldn't do it, so what makes us think that he could do it again the next time? >> that happens and i were here a lot because the people we'd like or choose doesn't seem to follow through but it is not like they are not following through the country doesn't follow through. >> it seems like every time we go in, santorum, huckabee, they are too conservative for the country and as soon as they leave iowa, they are done. they are done. mark: when we come back, the counterpoint from our democratic point guard, steve mcmahon after these words. ♪

mark: or guest tonight's

democrat steve mcmahon who works of for the bipartisan firm strategies for our partners of putting these focus groups together glued in the one that we did lessig and i will he joins us now from our d.c. bureau. steve, jeb bush -- sort of the best thing you can say about how we comes out of that group is he has a lot of work to do. steve: i was struck by the observation that he does not have the charisma of his father which is frank li na away i have ever heard george h.w. bush described before. you are absolutely right. we saw this in new hampshire. you saw it now in iowa. the republican party primary voters and caucus attenders are not very excited about jeb bush. and many of them don't think he can win which is interesting because you know even the people that are not very excited about hillary clinton the democratic side do think she can win. so that is i think that is a really big problem for jeb bush. john: i thought it was striking

and appoint you just made which is back in new hampshire army talked to republicans there they didn't like him friday logical reasons, they said he is not conservative enough him he is, core is a problem, immigration is a problem. these islands to care but any of that, they care about the name and electability. so it's like he has two sets of problems with two sets of voters but it is all bad. steve: that is exactly right. two sets of problems, two different groups of voters, they are all that. by the way, you know, if you wanted to new hampshire and he said it talking about you know the fact that it is a potion to be really wanted this again can he went? i think he would've for those same things and likewise with the iowa voters some of them didn't really know a common core was but if you expect to them and he understood it better, i think it would object just like us of the voters everywhere. remember, the iowa caucus attendees other public inside is very conservative the caucus produces winners like rick santorum and my cup be not exactly people who are mainstream republicans or who can win a general election. so they would all be trouble by

george bush's record as a governor. mark: a lot of nice things, i think -- a lot of nice things -- steve: a lot of my things said about him steve: they are all bushes. mark: on -- a lot of nice things said about marco rubio. they have never known it is sunday his age, with his experience, what is driving do you think based on the group and what does you have seen yucca what is driving this attraction to rubio? steve: it is really interesting i don't i will say this i am not try to marco rubio although it might have that effect i've will say that he is the barack obama of the republican party right now. his life story is captivating to people when he stands in front of a room and he talks about his immigrant parents and his father came from cuba and sit behind a bar in the back of the room so that marco rubio could stand in front of the podium on a stage in front of the room, that just notes are hard, and notes my heart. so i mean, i think, he has a compelling story and people are

jon to him and i would say marco rubio is a rocket ship on the lifespan and iowa mark: do know what impresses me? people sort of steve: mark: i think he is going to making an us in the same dates of it but it ready being overshadowed but it is forgiven the good that a guy is not been to iowa very often his message -- people know about his story and that is always a one the most impelling things he is selling steve: his messages burned it and i actually think that the rubio campaign is really executed beautifully because standing on the podium and as in the same day as hillary clinton is a little bit like stepping onto the podium in a presidential debate. if you are the challenger, it gives you stature. if you perform well, it gives you in a good position. i think marco rubio has done himself nothing but good every single day. john: sitting in the room with those republicans, there was excitement around rubio, the other person around whom there was excitement was carly fiorina.

what do you think it is they find appealing about her? given that that is true around the country, why is she not considered a top-tier candidate? steve: one of the reasons she is not a top candidate is because people have not seen this kind of research like this which previews the future and i was struck by exactly what you were struck by witches the strength of carly fiorina among this group and frankly if you think about what animates republican primary voters more than anything else it is who can you know who can hate barack obama the most but in this case it might be who can stand up and go to the toe of hillary clinton the best? is somebody in the group mention that carly fiorina would give hillary clinton hell and i think that is why she may be the underdog, the sort of candidate to watch in iowa because everybody is aware of marco rubio but nobody is aware of carly fiorina to the extent that she goes hard hard after hillary

and she becomes the anti-hillary, she is going to become more and more attractive to the conservative iowa republican caucus water. mark: if you were a bush adviser and that was a focus group inducted for the operation, what would you say to jabber about what he needs to do? steve: i think he needs to strike up some clear positions on some issues that are important to conservatives, he needs to stop talking about his brother and start talking about the future, he needs to be aspirational, positive, he needs to tell people why he can take us to a better place that we are sitting in today and frankly, he has not done any of that. mark: steve mcmahon, thank you. when we come back, our handy guide to your memorial day weekend. ♪

john: tomorrow, don't go to the beach, we are live streaming the

republican leadership conference. mark: we are on thrice a day now. sayonara. [laughter] ♪

host: i'm betty liu, we are moments away from the closing of the market today. betty: there goes the closing bell on thursday as we are heading toward memorial day weekend. stocks for hire. it looks like we have closed yes at a record -- about to close at a record here for the s&p 500. the dow up by four