mark: i mark halperin. john b: and i'm john heilemann. ♪ mark: happy national strawberries and cream day sports fans. on our very own off-broadway stage a midwest side story, i funny thing happened on the way to the nomination, and "the music man." but first, oklahoma. we just got word that hillary clinton is making her first

official announcement on june 13. tuesday season of the republican summit. today, the southern republican leadership conference in oklahoma city. jeb bush, mark -- marco rubio rick perry, you get the idea. today, scott walker spoke first. he delivered a new argument for why he is different from the rest. scott walker: there are a lot of great people that think about the race on the republican side. there are some people some of those folks, particularly folks in the washington area who are fighting for the good fight, waving the flag. but they have not won a whole lot of victories. there are other folks who have done an effective job at winning elections read a lot of them are friends of mine. they won a lot of elections but they have not taken on a lot of those fights. i have to tell you, part of the reason i am thinking about what i am thinking about, we haven't announced anything yet, we won't until the end of june when the state budget is done or if i

have yet to see anyone who is done both. i think going forward, we need someone who can fight and wind not just in the battle box, but someone who can fight and win and reserve -- six reforms. john: you can catch all of the action for the next couple of days. how politically potent to think that argument will prove to be? mark: 30% of it is pure dynamite. voters all across the country on the republican side say unions democrats, he is everything you could want. the other side is where you could run into problems potentially. jeb bush will argue that he is a more successful governor than scott walker. people will start picking at his record in wisconsin. he can definitely win elections. he will asked -- people asked if

he -- is he is -- been as successful as a governor? john: the electability argument gets you so far. there is no doubt he is a winner. this doesn't take the argument to the next level. people care about the ideas and what you are going to do for them. we have heard some of that from walker, but this is more of a placeholder than anything close to a closing argument. mark: one of the things i have been struck by as part of his success within the republican electorate is that he's confident. he asked the guy who thinks he can win it. -- he acts like a guy who thinks he can win. he is a warrior. john: he is. there is no doubt that there is the same kind of hunger on the republican side for a winner that there was on the democratic side in 2008. mark: in other news, jeb bush has a long way to go to convince americans he is different enough from his brother. after struggling on iraq

-- on the iraq question last week, he spoke to the press and was asked what issue he is most different than his brother on. here is how he chose to answer. jeb bush: in washington during my brother's time, republicans spent too much money. he could have used the veto power. he didn't have line-item veto power, but he could have brought proper discipline to washington, d.c.. john: that was his choice to go with the question of budgets. is that an answer that the bush campaign will like or is it just not enough to separate himself from his brother? mark: the bush campaign will like it. they chose it. he has decided that the fiscal terrain for which george w. bush was criticized by a lot of conservatives, is safer terrain in the foreign policy terrain, i don't know whether given how seminal for voters the iraq and foreign-policy matters.

john: here is what i think is best it is what he clearly , thinks. he vetoed a lot of spending bills. he clearly thinks republicans spent too much. because he is speaking from his heart, i think it was perfect pitch. mark: somebody will ask him, someone is going to look at that answer and say what about , medicare part b? john: he should say what he thinks. mark: your brother spent a lot of that money, buddy. he didn't just not veto it. john: i thought that was obviously better than the iraq thing. mark: [laughter] reports say isis controls half of syria. the cabinet meeting today discussing the threat posing by islamic state militaries. obama described his strategy. president obama: we will continue to go after isil.

get a strong deal that prevents i rock from getting nuclear weapons. mark: as for how to stop them, josh earnest and his briefing today said that ground troops are not an option. >> the president is not going to be in a position where he is going to consider a large scale u.s. military deployment. for those who are calling on a change in strategy, i would encourage them to be specific. mark: now, from the other side of the aisle, here house and senator john mccain savaged in his own style the administration's strategy at a hearing on isis and syria. senator mccain: two days ago when a review showed up to correct and incoherent strategy the white house press secretary , josh earnest said, are we going to light our hair on fire every time there is a setback? i would point out from my colleagues that maybe his hair is not on fire but their body is

-- there are bodies on fire in the streets of ramadi. john: this issue has blown up with ramadi. do you think that congressional criticism and the facts on the ground are now at the point with a are going to compel obama to change course? mark: i got an e-mail from hillary clinton and the subject line was, i want to meet you. i figured i had better read it, it turns out it was not directly for me. the president will not change policy. the white house is right, the critics don't have a comprehensive plan that will work. the joint chiefs have to recommend a plan but he will not change it based on the criticism of the hill because they do not , have an actual comprehensive plan. john: here is what we know about president obama. this moment he is in a mindset of i am going to do what i want to do and the extent to which i'm going to get away with what

i want to do i am going to do it. he is commander in chief, and what he told jeff goldberg today in the atlantic he said i don't , think we are losing. he believes in his strategy. at this point, the lack of an alternative, but he still actually thinks they are on the right path means he will not change course anytime soon. mark: hillary clinton, i want to meet you too. coming up, the exciting sequel to our iweb focus group, this time the republican voters. coming up after a word from our sponsors. ♪

mark: yesterday we showed you parts of our democratic focus group in iowa which we do with purple strategies in des moines. tonight, it is the republicans turn. we asked about whether republican can beat hillary and if they are overwhelmed by choices in the vast field? do you look at this whole republican field, all 14 or

nine, or however many run, do you look at that field and think that is a pretty good field? , >> i'm a little overwhelmed. there is a lot. there are lots of people. >> i think that it needs to be whittled down and hopefully somebody strong will rise to the top and that is scary right now. i don't see a really good, strong candidate. mark: does it matter whether their candidate can attract more women voters? do you think about it that way? >> no. you don't think about it that way. no one, ok. mark: does it matter to you whether the candidate might have the prospect to attract more support from hispanic voters? or african-american voters or , other ethnic minorities? does that factor into your thinking at all, or do you just say that is not part of it. >> not part of it for me either. mark: how many of you know much about scott walker? >> i think he is that'll tested

at least. i'm open to anybody, but we need somebody who is battle-tested. somebody who will fight back. mark: a strong personality. mark: he doesn't have a degree from college. is that important to you? >> it is irrelevant. mark: show of hands, is there anybody who thinks that not having a degree is disqualifying? like, you wouldn't vote for someone without a college degree. >> i hate to say it but i think it is bothersome to me. mark: because? >> i don't know why. i can't tell you. but it strikes me as, i think that the president of the united states should have a college degree. >> i think if he was nobody, i , think it would bother me, but because he has been a successful politician, it doesn't bother me because he has proved himself. >> he jumped the hurdle. >> he comes across as being genuine and having his thoughts in order about a lot of issues.

mark: the people of wisconsin elected him three times. what do you know about marco rubio? >> i like his background and i just like the way he looks and i saw him on television last night and i thought, he is talking good stuff. mark: you have a little bit of a crush on marco rubio? >> i do. i think the kids call it crunching. >> he is the american dream. he built himself up and he is a self-made man. i think he still gives credit to his parents and stuff, but that's what we look for in the united states. mark: some republicans say he looks like the future but the last time we voted for somebody in their first term in the senate we got barack obama, and he was not experienced enough to be president. does it bother anybody in the room that marco rubio has only been in washington for a few years and hasn't even finished one term in the senate? does that bother anyone? >> i don't think obama's problem is his lack of experience, it is

his lack of integrity and his pushing things through that has nothing to do with lack of experience, it is a character issue. >> i second that. >> it wouldn't bother me. mark: last week in the media, there was a lot of discussion about jeb bush and his use of the iraq war, the war his brother started i just want to know how much you guys of heard about that? >> i wish he would have known that question was coming. >> in a hard place those good politicians can shuffle. >> it is in the past, just let it go. learn from it move on. there is more crap to worry about right now right in our faces. mark: is there anybody in this room who knows about jeb bush's position, and is bothered by it? nobody in the room? >> what is common core #--?

i don't understand that. mark: have you heard about his positions on immigration? do they bother you? >> i have not heard his position. mark: if it is not those specific things, why is there nobody in the room who is more enthusiastic or more curious about him? >> i think he is his own man but that bush name that people get, they get turned off in a -- and i don't know why they get turned off. >> he has a name problem. >> i think you and make a good candidate but just because of the name, he just is such a negative connotation that people , just get turned off. >> i don't know if he can beat hillary. because it goes back to bush versus clinton. what is going to happen? that scares me. i don't have a problem with him, or learning about him but i am , worried. >> it wouldn't be any different than the clinton side. if we are looking for electability, maybe take both out and start with somebody new. >> i think our country is a country and it should be run by like a business and i don't think it should be run like a

family business and that is what is going to happen if we get him in, and i just think he seems to follow in his brother's footsteps and is not anywhere as near as charismatic as the dad that is too bad. >> it's too bad that is his last name. people are going to hold that against him, and i don't think they should but it is reality. mark: what do you know about carly fiorina? >> she is a woman. [laughter] mark: that is true. >> she talks pretty straight. i think she can hold her own with anybody in a bar fight or discussion. >> she could give hillary a run for her money. >> i think she could. >> i have heard positive things about her that she is a good communicator, and she knows what she is talking about. i have heard positive things. mark: anyone enthusiastic about another rick perry run? >> i like rick perry but i don't think you'd be elected, he is kind of in a third place so to

speak. mark: are you interested in mike huckabee? or do you feel like his time is past? >> i'm interested. i think he was smart to get on tv. so. he is someone i am watching. mark: what about you? >> i like him, i used to watch him on his fox show. i think he is very intelligent. i think he really means what he says, again i don't know if he can bring, i am just so hung up on somebody who can bring everybody together. i believe -- >> i believe he will stand on his morals, and we need that. we need someone who will stick to the constitution, and stick to what the founding fathers wanted our country to be. >> i think he is too conservative for the country. maybe not for iowa, but for the country as a whole. mark: what has santorum done wrong? when the iowa caucuses last time ? are you not interested? >> he didn't win. so why would i put all of our

energy in him again and again? mark: the fact that he did become the nominee, you feel like, he had his chance. >> and might be harsh, but yes. >> he had the momentum coming out of iowa but he couldn't do it, so what makes us think that he could do it again the next time? >> what happens in iowa here a lot, the people we like or choose, does not seem to follow through, it is not like they are not following through, the country doesn't follow through. >> it seems like every time we go in, santorum, huckabee, they are too conservative for the country and as soon as they leave iowa, they are done. they are done. mark: when we come back, the counterpoint from our democratic point guard, steve mcmahon after these words. ♪

mark: our guest tonight is democrat steve mcmahon. he joins us now from our d.c. bureau. steve, jeb bush -- sort of the best thing you can say about how we comes out of that group is he has a lot of work to do. steve: i was struck by the observation that he does not have the charisma of his father, which is frankly not a way i have ever heard george h.w. bush described before. you are absolutely right. we saw this in new hampshire. we thought now just in iowa. -- we saw it just now in iowa. the republican party primary voters and caucus attenders are not very excited about jeb bush. and many of them don't think he can win which is interesting because, you know, even the people that are not very excited about hillary clinton on the democratic side, do think she can win. so that is, i think, that is a really big problem for jeb bush. john: i thought it was striking

and a point you just made which is back in new hampshire, he talked to republicans there, they didn't like him for ideological reasons, they said he is not conservative enough. common core is a problem immigration is a problem. they care about the name and electability. so it's like he has two sets of problems with two sets of voters but it is all bad. steve: that is exactly right. two sets of problems, two different groups of voters, they are all bad. by the way, if you went to new hampshire and started talking about, ken bush when? -- can bush win? i think he would've for those same things and likewise with the iowa voters some of them didn't really know what common core was but if you explain it to them and understood it better, i think it would -- of the voters everywhere. remember, the iowa caucus attendees on the republican side is very conservative, the caucus produces winners like rick santorum and mike huckabee, not exactly people who are mainstream republicans or who can win a general election. so they would all be troubled by george bush's record as a governor.

mark: a lot of nice things, i think -- a lot of nice things -- steve: a lot of nice things said about marco rubio. mark a lot of nice things said : about marco rubio. they have never known somebody his age, with his experience what is driving, do you think, based on the group, and what is driving this attraction to rubio? steve: it is really interesting i will say this, i am not try to marco rubio although it might have that effect. i will say that he is the barack obama of the republican party right now. his life story is captivating to people when he stands in front of a room and he talks about his immigrant parents and his father came from cuba and sit behind a bar in the back of the room so that marco rubio could stand in front of the podium on a stage in front of the room, that just melts your heart and melts my , heart. so, i mean, i think, he has a compelling story and people are drawn to him and i would say

marco rubio is a rocket ship on the launch pad in iowa. i think he will be the nominee. mark: people made fun of him for being the nominee, but it's really being overshadowed -- people know about his story and that is always one of the most compelling things he is selling. steve: i actually think that the rubio campaign is really executed beautifully because standing on the podium announcing the same day as hillary clinton is a little bit like stepping onto the podium in a presidential debate. if you are the challenger, it gives you stature. if you perform well, it leaves you in a good position. i think marco rubio has done himself nothing but good every single day. john: sitting in the room with those republicans, there was excitement around rubio, the other person around whom there was excitement, and a buzz in the room was carly fiorina. my question to you is a what do

, you think it is they find appealing about her? given that that is true around the country, why is she not considered a top-tier candidate? steve: one of the reasons she is not a top candidate is because people have not seen this kind of research. a lot of times what you see in research like this is previews the future and i was struck by exactly what you were struck by which is the strength of carly fiorina among this group and frankly if you think about what animates republican primary voters more than anything else it is, who can, you know, who can hate barack obama the most? but in this case it might be who can stand up and go toe to toe with hillary clinton the best? somebody in the group mention ed that carly fiorina would give hillary clinton hell and i think that is why she may be the underdog, the sort of candidate to watch in iowa because everybody is aware of marco rubio but nobody is aware of carly fiorina to the extent that she goes hard, hard after hillary and she becomes the anti-hillary, she is going to become more and more attractive

to the conservative iowa republican caucus voter. mark: if you were a bush adviser and that was a focus group conductive for the bush operation, what would you say to jeb bush about what he needs to do? steve: i think he needs to strike up some clear positions on some issues that are important to conservatives, he needs to stop talking about his brother in the past and start , talking about the future, he needs to be aspirational positive, he needs to tell people why he can take us to a better place of the men we are sitting in today. and frankly, he has not done any of that. mark: steve mcmahon, thank you. when we come back, our handy guide to your memorial day weekend. right after the break. ♪

john: tomorrow, don't go to the beach, or if you do, bring your

tablet. we are live streaming the republican leadership conference on bloomberg.com. mark: we are on thrice a day now. sayonara. [laughter]

emily: hewlett-packard just that with earnings, we will look at the numbers and how it could impact meg whitman's plan to flip the company. ♪ emily: and i'm emily chang, and this is "bloomberg west. " i will be joined by the ceo of solar city. plus, how twitter plans to make more money and five, not so easy steps, and what that tells us on what social media is heading to do. why a tech bubble may be a good thing for hollywood