tv Market Makers Bloomberg May 26, 2015 8:00am-10:01am EDT
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bethany: -- stephanie: you are watching market makers at our new time. eric: john malone is a busy man. stephanie: both sides wait for the other side to blank. erik: we will be speaking to michael o'leary on the company's profits and plans for the future. stephanie: how was your weekend? vacation, no traffic for you. a lot lacrosse, beach time, not enough sunscreen on my kids. you know memorial day weekend, you have a long sleeve t-shirt on and a baseball hat. i did not make a good choice. erik: time for your top
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headlines. let's begin with time warner cable. a deal will reshape time warner cable business. $55 billion in cash. a 14% premium and time warner cable is closing on friday. the shareholder, billionaire john malone. the offer was rejected. time warner cable accepted a bid from comcast. greece -- time and money and assess to bailout funds. another way to raise money, greek citizens can make undeclared deposits and foreign banks illegal by paying 15% tax.
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stanley fischer says when it comes to interest rates, the fed is playing a waiting game. if the fed raised its rates to quickly come it would be hard to cut them if the economy does not pick up. >> our processes are not data determined. they are data determined. erik: the fed will be going from an ultra-expansionary monetary policy. stephanie: i love that he is feeling it with his clever wit. the u.s. government is determining whether general
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motors will face criminal charges. prosecutors are trying to figure out if anyone at general motors did break the law. the ignition defect is blamed for more than 100 deaths. agreeing to change the way it operates. and it is one of the biggest homes ever built in the united states. get your head around this. it can be yours for a record $500 million. a developer is building this 74,000 square foot home in los angeles and he says it will have every amenity it wants including an imax style theater 5000 square-foot master bedroom, and a casino. erik schatzker right there. if anyone says, are you feeling
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a bubble, right there, i am feeling a bubble. welcome back, 2007. erik: we have got breaking news. >> emc will hold a privately held company. the new managed cloud services business. the company bolts on acquisition here, although emc is already into that type of business there are nine acquisitions over the past year or so. it looks as if this may be the largest. erik: we take you to the five things we need to watch today. it is the big take over agreed to buy time warner cable. there was a statement moments ago from the communications commission saying the fcc issues every merger on its merits and
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determines whether it would be in the public interest. absence of harm is not sufficient. the commission will look to see how american consumers would benefit if they were to be approved. tom wheeler talking out of both sides of his mouth. he picks up the phone on the one hand and calls the ceo. stephanie: "business, dealmaking welcome. erik: we finally see the deal and tom wheeler strikes a different tone. maybe this is wheeler saying what he has to say. we have to make sure it is in the best interest of the american people. stephanie: i think so. had he not, he makes and out of character public call saying, no we are fine with it. to let the deal simply go through, i do not think that would have gone so well.
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how about number two? the strong dollar, the u.s. dollar jumped to an eight year high against the yen. janet yellen remarks on friday saying it would not be appropriate to raise rates this year if the economy improved. that is what this is all about trying to get a sense of how strong the economy really is and when they could actually make the move. they say could happen year ago but the more and more people we talked to in the market who were addicted to the support they were getting from central banks, they say no, things were fragile. >> i'm growing a little tired of the guessing game. it is not really about when, but how fast they raise interest rates. the first 25 basis hike comes when the next 125 matters. stephanie: if michael mckee were here, he would say there are so
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many data points depending on who we are speaking to. the job numbers, forget it. i just think everyone is talking about it, surprise surprise. julie: let's look at what is going on with stocks today. banks appear to be the least expensive industry in the s&p 500. it is relative. they are trading at 7.6 times earnings. the s&p overall is training at 18.8. only one has the cheapest sector, a higher valuation. in other words cheat into that cheap. classes you look at how well s&p companies are doing, this is carl icahn's argument, if he would invest in the s&p, a lot
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of these companies are not superstars. if you actually look at fundamentals, look at the tech industry and the evaluation. think about shake shack, a restaurant that may be delicious, but a burger place with seven menu items. crazy town. they might sell chicken sound is now. tash chickens now -- chicken sandwiches now. numbers coming out in about 30 minutes we have also got home prices at 9:00 a.m. it is about what data you care about. erik: i am not sure durable goods are at the top of my list. i'm fascinated to see where we are in the home price recovery. stephanie: i want to see anyone
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taking down the $5 million house in l.a.. erik: a new york times report that general motors rejected sergio's discussing a merger. he has been outspoken since last year about the need for consolidation in the auto industry, for there to be global companies. kreisler, a big company and as far as he's concerned, not big enough. stephanie: of course. that is what you want, a big business. erik: he first raised the idea in the past and we heard from people close, that other automakers including ford and general motors, expressed no interest. we had not known until now that he had actually wrote out in long form in an e-mail his desire to complete a merger.
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she did not even grant him a meeting. stephanie: you know what matters to me most, the rolls-royce ceo told eric and may he does not feel threatened by elon musk and driver list. they have had them for decades called the chauffeur. one of my favorites. moving on. new headlines about greece this morning. officials holding talks trying to bridge the gap with creditors. in berlin, we're joined now. just last night, i'm reading about pointing the finger and blaming creditors and i'm thinking, what will that get you, brother? >> that is his negotiating strategy and it has not played well here in berlin. the redline's austerity and everyone else from the ims to various central bankers saying, the requirement for greece is that they continue with the program, which includes austerity.
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we do not have a lot of progress. banks are getting concerned and we see yields moving a little bit on this today. the exchange was down 3% and it is down again today. it looks like markets are starting to get concerned. erik: practically speaking, what happens if there is no -- this is one thing i have turned in my head this morning. what happens if there is no deal? we heard greece may be allowed to stay inside the eurozone is it defaults. if it does, i presume that means it has no access to bailout funds. >> that is true. wilmot have bailout funds unless it completes the program. that is a side point. the big question is no one knows what will happen. there has been a shift over the last 72 hours, before a lot of the talk was, what happens greece defaults.
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it is more of a question of what happens in terms of contagion, wits assumes at least a minor default. if you do not pay the imf is that technically a default, or do you default 30 to 60 days later? i will leave that to you guys to talk to all your friends. erik: the threat of a contagion, the fact that we are talking about it, means anybody who believes it is the slightest bit possible to hedge him or herself right now if that is the case contagions should not be the problem. >> that was the argument we heard here he said the big danger is for greece. you heard something similar from the central banker and this is why you guys came to me, for the
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latest out of estonia. talking about how progress is not moving to where it needs to be. three central bankers this morning weigh-in. talking about maybe having a tax on withdrawals from cash machines so you can put more things on credit cards. it is the most we have out of greece today, talking about a fee on atm transactions. we do not have anything serious from policymakers and we have not heard -- he gave an interview on sunday on the radio and that is laced we heard from him. if you can read body language through a radio interview, he seems to be prepared for greece to go ahead and default. stephanie: that is a gift interpreting body language in a radio interview. hans, thank you for joining us.
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charter communications buying time warner cable for 55 million dollars in cash finally getting to consolidate the cable tv business. time warner and charter sales are up in premarket trading. these deals almost quadruple the number of cable subscribers. here to talk about it, a portfolio manager and alex sherman, who broke the story. welcome. stephanie: congratulations. it must have been so cool. erik: who wins the most and is there a loser? >> i think rob is doing pretty well this morning. hats off to the whole team in maximizing value for their shareholders. stephanie: what does he get? >> last time, it was $80 million when comcast. time warner cable.
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but something like that. i do not know where he lives. stephanie: if you are watching rob, $500 million with your name on it. >> there is a blueprint if you want to make a lot of money, i suppose. >> a lot of concerns about regulatory overhang, and smart buyers, john malone just put a bit on the table 8.3 times. erik: comcast is trading for less. >> it is where everyone wants to be. they have got scale and they are executing superbly and have got a contact company. the division in 2009 when they
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bought nbc was, let's move it forward and transform the business and they have been doing that, a little slow. erik: how long until we see the next move in cable television? >> probably quickly. there are not a ton of companies left of scale to be acquired. but there are some. media, is a privately held company owned by five -- cox. they have stayed on the sideline for a lot of this. the business got the scent that maybe they have not wanted to sell. i heard through different channels the media come would be potentially more likely sell -- to sell cable television. now that they have done this deal, the southern company just came in and bought southern lake, are the de facto roll up.
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>> the top of the list has to be cable one. about half a million subs. it is a no-brainer for them. stephanie: what is your view on tom wheeler making his statement this morning saying, hold your horse is after saying, no, we will look at deals. >> public negotiation begins. the fcc will want concessions. their pound of flesh is probably price controls, offering broadband options for low come desk low income. >> is that threaten the forecast? >> i am sure, yes. >> they will try but comcast sales and charter would have to offer something that comcast did not offer or they will fall back on, look, we're not as egg. >> the fcc is looking for a public good and i'll give you a public good.
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erik: it will be a scorcher today in new york city. checked on a loan for almost 100 times in his budding franchise. he decided to start funding circle to secure funding through peer-to-peer lending. let's find out how the small companies are putting capital to work. sam is here, the cofounder and u.s. managing director of funding circle. >> 96 times, we cannot get a
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loan to save our life. >> had you say, i will be the guy running gyms, to lending practices. >> we have raised a lot of money for a variety of projects did it is crazy to us when we had this great jim, but could not get a $100,000 loan to save our lives here it was 2009. we saw the problem and realized there is a structural gap in the market. that inspired us to start with funding circle. stephanie: if you think about lending practices in 2008 and 2009 they were really tight from these organizations. those big banks seem to be advertising the welcoming of small businesses. is your business getting tougher to execute? >> smaller loans have gone down by 3.5%.
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our approach, which uses technology, it really means we can go out and serve the small businesses. >> the chairman of the senate banking committee wants to roll back some restrictions. wants to place on american banks, in particular community banks and the kinds of lenders that might compete with your platform if it were not so expensive to do so. >> the way we see it our motto and a highly efficient way smaller banks as well. erik: why don't you describe how
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the funding circle works? a lot of peer-to-peer lenders. stephanie: i also need to understand why they need you. if you are a smaller bank, i still do not understand why they need your help. classes you are a smaller bank, you have a finite set of resources. we have got 300 people globally people building our product. gather a lot of data quickly or from a bank's perspective, this is the way to offer a customer a great experience. erik: what makes you different from peer-to-peer or marketplace lenders people may have heard of on deck? >> the biggest difference is we are 100% focused on small business.
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the business really isn't on the consumer side hit what we offer is a much lower rate term loans between one and five years. for growing business, expansion capital, a fairly priced product. at this point, it is describing operational scale. both in the u.s. and the u.k. where their operating. it is highly fragmented. it is about building brand awareness. our approach is hybridized. it is a hybrid approach. we have a data-driven affiant.
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borrowers through that it gives the ability to explain the story. erik: one thing that matters a lot to anyone borrowing money, what happens to interest rates, based on the data, we are about to get a brand-new piece of data. julie hyman out of the newsroom with breaking news. julie: a game of 5.1%. very volatile because we have a transportation component in part an airline an airplane orders do swing quite a bit. if you back that out and back out a defense orders, you gain 1% -- a month earlier for march,
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it looks like this trajectory is better than folks were anticipating. also, if you could take a look at shipments excluding air orders and defense orders, because there is well you have had a revision there. that is a little more of a current barometer of what is happening when you look at the shipments there. erik: how much visibility do you have -- that you will use the loans for? >> it is a factor we look at carefully. it is this kind of stuff here the acquisition of capital goods. stephanie: who are your ideal customers? >> in a lot of ways, we were. we built a product we needed.
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in the world of american small business, do you see expansion or are american small businesses are my money more aggressively? stephanie: what do you think the economy looks like given our vantage point? >> businesses are diversified across sector and across geography. one example, it is a company based in southern california and impressive woman whose experience, take care of her mother-in-law made her realize this is a huge needs for home care services. she took out a $150,000 loan from us. since then, she has doubled her revenue. a lot of stories like that were businesses are investing opportunities and really being able to expand. stephanie: are you seeing
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specific sectors not doing well? when you look at strong dollar or other factors, are there possible clients you thought would be more in vogue right now and they are just not? >> there have not been major surprises. we definitely see in terms of core retail services and the justice, health care services and health and wellness really across the board. erik: how long do go public? why not? >> we were able to raise a private round months ago. it came together quickly and what that has been able to allow us to do is grow the business the way we wanted. that is the focus of building a great business. stephanie: i'm pretty sure if you need any more money, you
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could tap them. congratulations. a great story. erik: sam of funding circle. headlines. let's do it. some news to catch you up on. and a deal announced this morning, charter communications agreed to by time warner cable for $55 billion in cash and stocks. >> our new company would drive significant investments into infrastructure, delivering faster broadband needs, better video and innovation into the marketplace. erik: time warner cable to rejected time warner's's offer and projected another from comcast. last month over antitrust concerns, that opened the door once again for charter.
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stephanie: an app aced magazine, footboard. twitter has engaged in talks to buy footboard for more than $1 billion. more than 300 million users. the presence far from the coastline. open seas protection as one of its core missions likely to make other asian countries where he china will use the navy to backup disputed territorial claims. erik: by the end of the year, it will remove artificial flavors, trans-fats, for moments all of its many appeared taco bell says the upgrade will not result in higher prices. stephanie: there you go. erik: how do you do the doritos
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stephanie: welcome back. julie has got the details in china. julie: chinese stocks are up for the sixth straight day. it is the best streak we have seen since november of 2008. up 15%, it is now the highest level since january of 2008 in approaching 5000. of more than 140% in the past year. this is as we have seen an opening in the chinese market, particularly in hong kong. in order to spur stimulus in that country, a lot of enthusiasm from the chinese market, he met same time many investors have reservations about how long this could continue. one trader said he expects
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hiccups as the index approaches the 5000 mark and we are getting close to it. an interesting development in the currency market in china. chinese currency is undervalued and that puts it at odds with the u.s. currency and sets up the chinese currency for reserve status there at a company review will look at that and it could potentially happen set up by the reckoning on currency. stephanie: thank you for giving us the latest. kkr is bringing out his secret weapon to attract new clients. the private equity firm is set to be recording offices with a little help from upper management. for more on this story, jason is here with the details. they just do not have enough money?
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you need help getting more? click this is a huge pool of money, private families, the endowments private equity has counted on for a long time. people have been investing in private equity for a long time but getting into the markets really means a high touch approach. you have got general portray us, running the institute, he is bringing folks in an meeting with them. stephanie: how exactly does david could trace help ring clients in? he is a well-known guy but it is not like he has got relationships with the world passes most famous and wealthy people. >> he does not, but the world's's wealthiest people want to meet him. he is a highly connected global
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guy. they are using what they have at their exposure. he tells great stories. you have got the chief economist ken who used to run the republican party. these guys come in an interesting thing we heard in reporting this story is that these all require a real personal level of attention. the joke is if you have met one family office, you have met one family office. there is not something you could do -- erik: what does it say about the strategy that they are targeting it? >> they are all going after it. we spoke with blackstone. all of them have these very sophisticated efforts to do that. part of the reason is that pension funds, the biggest source of funds for private equity over time, they are still investing heavily but as we shift from defined benefit to
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defined contribution the pools are stabilizing if not drinking. they need new sources of capital. stephanie: does that mean we are not that many years away from jay-z sporting possible clients? if you are going to bring in influence, people are saying, i will give you money if donald per trace comes to a meeting? >> they want to be in the room with smart people who can talk about the global economy. one thing we heard from family offices that have been to the meeting is really, it is a soft sell and they really want to be around smart people and eventually maybe they get some money down the line. erik: thank you. stephanie: when we return ryanair's ceo, finding out that
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stephanie: charter hopes to succeed were comcast does not. it has agreed to by time warner cable for 55 nine dollars in cash and dos. the deal allows charter to almost quadruple its amount of cable tv subscribers. comcast deals to buy time warner simply fell apart because of scrutiny from regulators are goldman sachs cannot resist to the 10% yield on puerto rico comedies jump wants. it has a most quadruple its stake in bonds since the credit rating was cut last year. a total 1.3 billion worth. goldman is bucking the chance. most of the mutual fund holders in puerto rican bonds have been cutting.
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and it is a sport that has always been dominated by schools on the east coast and not anymore. denver beats university of maryland 10-52 in the ncaa lacrosse championship. it is the first lacrosse title in the state that does not touch -- before moving west, six national titles were one at princeton. here is what is cool. my husband, played lacrosse at princeton, as did his rather. the team honored at halftime was a 1997 national championship team. he was the coach and there he was again. denver. erik: when we come back, michael o'leary of ryanair. ♪
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cheap and nasty to cheap and cheerful. a new strategy is paid off. today, profits jumped 66% in the past year alone. so ryanair ceo michael o'leary is here now. michael: we have focused on improving the service and at a more new aircrafts and it is paying off and drones. stephanie: how? if someone wants a cheap ticket, do they really care question -- care? michael: i think they do. increasingly, we have moved into the business market. tickets for business people, families traveling with young kids get discounts on season things like that. the move means more more people
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are vanishing european legacy carriers and switching to ryanair. erik: why haven't we seen a carrier duplicate the success in europe? michael: we have but southwest has been around for 40 years. it is a higher fare experience. we carried 90 million passengers and the average fare was $45 million to the west average fare is north of $100. we say true to being low-fare but increasingly being a rapidly improving customer experience. erik: under what circumstances could ryanair come to north america? michael: at the moment, we run out of growth in europe but we announced orders of up to 400 aircraft, more growth opportunities across europe van we could handle. there are clearly a lot of
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opportunities to grow. we would not be interested in coming to the states until we topped out in europe. that is probably 209 passengers per year. more more business people want to trade down to lower fares. they do not want to delay legacy carriers and i do not want the high prices. stephanie: legacy carriers have more delays than you do? why? michael: they are inefficient and they are operating in complicated airports. we are still doing 25 minutes 10 rounds and more than 19% of our flights last year arrived on time and we are the best in terms of actuality in europe. erik: you talked about getting into the long-haul business. what will it take? michael: a big break in the long-haul order cycle which does not exist. boeing and airbus historically every five years would have a crash and you have got the three
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carriers now that have record -- airbus has no spare aircraft deliveries for the next four or five years. prices are high and we would always want to wait until the prices are low, so i think it means we have to wait until the downturn. i am on the side of the consumer. that means you support the gulf carriers to the u.s. carriers over here are exactly the same as the european legacy. we do not want to compete with the carriers because they subsidized by the government. we have been for years. american carriers have been protected for years. that is why fares in north america are so high. we should encourage more competition and expansion so that american consumers and international travelers get a better deal. stephanie: thank you so much for joining us. we will be back with more in a few. erik: we will be talking about
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>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers." erik: good morning once again. i'm erik schatzker. stephanie: i am stephanie ruhle. it is a tuesday that feels a bit like a monday, including a big monday deal. charter agreeing to buy time warner cable pair we will have more on it ahead. erik: breaking news, the latest read on home prices. julie hyman is in the newsroom. julie: thank you so much. national home prices are up 4.1% year-over-year, march over
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march. the 20 largest cities in the u.s., that year-over-year number is up 5%. it is a pretty significant increase year on a month over month basis. we saw an increase of 9/10 -- of .9% in the broader national index on a month over month basis. we saw .8% increase. steady increases an interesting come -- commentary coming from the chairman of the index committee. he says you might be asking yourself at this point if it is a bubble. the only way you could be sure is to look back after it is over. he said it does not necessarily argue for a bubble because we are seeing a slowing of increases. he does point out home prices are rising more quickly than per capita income or wages, narrowing the pool of homebuyers.
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julie: we are following a major takeover today in the cable tv industry. charter communications is agreeing to buy time warner cable. the deal is worth $55 billion in cash and stock or charter will pay $196 per share, a 14% uptick above time warner passes closing price just last friday. regulators must sign off on the deal by the charter ceo says he does not think it will be an obstacle. quite the confident our proposed transactions will obtain approval from regulators. stephanie: time warner is the second-biggest cable company and charter is the fourth-largest. the deal would almost quadruple charter positive total number of cable subscribers. charter buses biggest shareholder is the one and only true dealmaker john malone. the bid to buy time warner cable last year was turned down
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comcast backed out of the deal last month under serious pressure from regulators. erik: a european leader is saying greek debt talks need to speed up. there is no plan b in this situation. the greek finance are said the deal needs to be cut by june 5 but a bloomberg analyst is predicting he might not have the job for long. >> thing that is most clear about greece is either the government will fail or they will sign a new coalition. there will be a new finance minister and two months. that is the single best bet to make on greece. erik: greece is running out of money but leaders will not release funds unless greece promises labor -- labor rules the trial of a man is underway in london today to brian tells
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us about the charges against the former ups traitor. -- ubs trader. >> the prosecutor played out an excerpt of 82 hours of interviews and mr. hayes gave the police in lead up to today to the beginning of the trial, and he has heard effectively saying he is a serial offender to some extent and perhaps should be, in front of the prosecutors. the prosecutors said he backtracked on that and claimed he had not acted dishonestly. this is a complex trial and his guilt and fate will be decided by jurors. bloomberg, london. erik: the executive credited for the look and feel of many at all products gets a promotion. the first ever chief design officer works closely with the apple cofounder, steve jobs. tim cook it has expanded his
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role in the past three years. those are some of your top headlines. stephanie: just when you thought jonny's job could not get cooler, it did. charter and time warner cable and the $55 billion merger. for more on the deal and how it is breaking down, we have got paul sweeney of bloomberg intelligence and alex sherman who broke the deal early on. it has really been a two-year saga and here we are, but it is not a done deal. erik: they will have to make the case to regulators. we heard a brief soundbite a little while ago. it will be the case he will have to make over the coming months why there is a public benefit to the deal when there was not one. i think the argument they will try to make in terms of what is the public and if it for the sec is we are in a new business, and the pay-tv business is
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undergoing a tremendous amount of competition right now from hulu and netflix and hbo, everyone going directly to the consumer over the internet. it is a threat to the core pay-tv business. the response from industries they have to continue to invest in their programming and in the technology, the broadband, they have to continue to make these upgrades and they will have to argue that listen, we need to get eger and get scale to compete in the new world. we will see if that works better. >> they're questions about the very issue on the conference call and charter says they anticipate a faster regulatory view than comcast went with. and they will have less than 30% of the high-speed broadband market, which was an issue when it came to comcast. >> we know that the fcc chairman already spoke and basically indicated, just because we rejected the comcast deal, does not mean we will reject all cable deals.
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it is a strong sign he is open to a deal. stephanie: if they did not have some sort of legitimate signal that yes we are possibly open for business, after seeing what just happened, they would not enter into this. erik: to cement that point there is a $2 billion break fee. stephanie: walk us through what that mean-spirited always blows my mind. classes the deal falls apart charter pays them to billion dollars. stephanie: what is the rationale? >> regulatory. there might be another bid theoretically, this other company that jumped into the cable world in the united states two weeks ago -- stephanie: $2 billion, that is a massive number. >> it is not that big a deal and contests, but it goes to show
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the risks were just so enormous here. but here, highly motivated to get the deal done and i think they will clearly get the deal done. they are much smaller than comcast and i think the deal probably gets done. >> there are several fascinating aspects but one that caught my eye and one that imus and was not expected was the participation of hedge funds. three hedge funds, run by eric weinstein's company, which i do not know much about. lining up with malone, buying shares of liberty broadband here liberty broadband of horse then helping to fund charter's acquisition. stephanie: why now? they have so much money? >> there has been a lot of private equity chasing deals. they love cable because it is free cash flow and very
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predictable. why would malone let new equity come into the deal is the question. stephanie: we knew there would be a shift in how he was investing for we heard that it were nine months ago that he would become much more. >> he already owns according to the latest charter's shale -- charter shares. kuester a convoluted vehicle of liberty broadband. classes you want liquidity, invest in charter. if you do not need the quiddity may be liberty broadband is a better vehicle, the holding company for all of malone's television -- it is more thinly traded. >> this is something he has done over the years, create tracking stocks or put assets in different vehicles so investors can invest only in what they want. it is all tax driven.
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he got this wrong and he stumbled into it. they really messed this up back in january of 2014 when they put out an offer. time warner cable said they wanted 160 and charter did not meet it and comcast went up and bought the whole thing. now, $195 per share. stephanie: that is a punchline we had not heard yet. >> charter stocks also went up quite a bit. it is still an hundred dollars in cash. it could go all the way up to 115. so yes. stumbled into the deal. the shareholders had an option to accept either $100 although it up to $115 in less charter stocks depending on what they want. and interesting tidbit to the deal. stephanie: extraordinary it a great story. alex and paul sweeney. erik: shares of kreisler are
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>> kreisler shares are tumbling in trading. jamie butters, who covers the auto industry in detroit, is with us for more. why do sergio keep talking about the need to merge automakers to create a global company? >> it is surprising and you do not hear it very often, especially when the company has been as successful as that merger has been. the stock is up a bunch again this year, but they are just too small.
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big driving force for the kreisler merger was to get a good enough to be in the top five or the top six. they are half the size of the global three, bmw and toyota. they just do not have the scale. he knows come the next recession, you have got to have enough size to get through. kreisler's number four in this market and it makes them seem pretty big periodical scale they are much farther back and very week in asia. erik: he has been talking about this since 2014, several months now. this is news, that he wrote an e-mail proposing they have tossed her merry bar did not even grant him a meeting. classiest. this year, he has gotten more aggressive about making the case sending a direct e-mail to mary barra, who has had run-ins with act's investors this year forcing gm's and to accelerate
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and trying to have a buyback, something they probably would have done next year and instead they announced at this year. does not want to have anything to do with it here detroit has a horrible history. everyone's recent memory and detroit is full of horrible mergers. they all lost money. kreisler did not go well, jim had a lot of tieups, including a joint venture with fiat that caused them to billion dollars to get out of. stephanie: why this horrible history? >> it is very difficult to combine automakers. you want to have scale and mathematically you say, ok, 10 billion, you're probably big enough to have global scale. but it is congregated. you have got brands that are hard to manage when they are like that and it is difficult to bring two cultures together. they have different ways their
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engineering works. it is hard to have a good fit. kreisler is a good fit in part because kreisler needed to be saved and was going to go away. nissan is a rare one that would be worked out here nissan is bankrupt. a great job. erik: if it will not be general motors, then who is a logical partner for kreisler? -- kreisler -- chrystler? >> they see how challenging it is. ford and gm have particular challenges are they arty have pickups, some of the most attractive assets that kreisler brings to the table. full flag in, toyota, seems very likely. honda deliberately is individualistic.
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even the other players, the asian players that might seem to be a good fit, they have tieups of their own and their own complications. it is tough shopping out there, why he is holding a conference call. erik: marchionne has played his cards so well and it turns that he does not have such a good hand. stephanie: maybe not. we have got to take a break for jamie butters joining us from detroit. when we return we're talking about the things you need to focus on today. i do not mean beautiful weather in new york city. do not go outside and stay with us. ♪
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stephanie: 12 people are missing after people -- four deaths already blamed on severe weather long weekend. some congressional lawmakers worked during the holiday weekend, trying to find a compromise on the nsa phone spying program. really of the patriot act has stalled in the senate. the national security basis phone records -- one of the biggest american homes, that you can ever by, can be yours for a cool half billion dollars. a developer, the deal is not even sold yet. one confident developer is developing 24,000 square-foot homes in the bel air section of los angeles. it will have a casino imax
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theater, and a 5000 square-foot master bedroom. that is bananas and those are your top headlines. erik: about 10 minutes until trading starts here. julie hyman is taking a look at stocks taking a hit. julie: the outlook for coal is dire right now, in particular for arch coal and alpha natural resources. those stocks are rated underperformed. both are down very sharply. credit suisse saying it needs to see large scale supply or bankruptcy see these on the other end of the tunnel. stay with us. ♪
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bloomberg markets executive editor tracey holloway. tracy. tracy: top of the morning. i feel like we do this almost every morning, but top of the morning is greece, again. european bankers and officials are playing down what a greek default might mean for the euro zone economy. that is because it looks like we're not getting any movement on a deal. erik: you do not believe there will be a deal by the fifth? >> i read the op-ed and i was not clay convinced, but maybe he will surprise us all. >> honestly, i didn't think it matters. it matters to greece and probably periphery countries, but this has been a headline for over a year and i think the markets are reacting the way
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they should. defaults, damaging to the greasy cut -- the greek economy. i think it is very price down. stephanie: all right caret it matters to you and not to john. a second one, this will be more interesting. thrown in for friday, the international monetary fund saying chinese currency, could be a big deal because we all know china has been trying to get currency status for a long time. class of think it does matter in the long run. getting reserve currency status is part of the process. i think that is a step in that direction. stephanie: $1 trillion worth of
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assets could slip into chinese currency's if they get reserve status. erik: does that confer reserve status? stephanie: it should be noted there is a bit of a difference of opinion between the u.s. and the imf on the issue up in the u.s. still thinks these currency undervalue imf. stephanie: leather is perfect out and the markets are great across the board what will keep people in their seats and not in central park? >> we have a bumper day of u.s. data, durable goods, capital goods orders were a bit that are than expected. we have new home sales and consumer confidence. stephanie: what data point matters to you most? john: we have seen strong
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household -- everybody has been missing this pickup in housing, a strong compared -- contributor to growth. we see it leading to better second-half growth. the aspect of housing is really amazing. you buy a house and you need furniture and gardening and all the other things to go along with it. it has a strong effect on employment. erik: to a degree, are higher home prices a barrier to hire formation? >> there is a lot of pent-up demand. finances are the best we have seen in years and i think the rising household prices, while it might slow down a significant increase in price appreciation, the rest of consumer spending, i would look at it as a positive for the u.s. economy. erik: john, you're staying with
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us. tracy, thank you very much. stephanie: let's see what is moving out there in those markets. we will be joined now by julie hyman. julie: let's get to the time warner cable deal to $195 and $.71 a share is the price on that pricier than other deals we have seen as of late. you could take a look at other cable movers we have been watching as well. climbing in recent days on speculation it might be involved in deal making. directv is unchanged. how about the companies directly involved? how are they trading? there they are. charter is down a little bit -- it is up as we get underway. 2%. looks like people are happy about the deal. we will hear from the ceo of charter communications in the next half hour so make sure you stay tuned for that.
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the other deal that is apparently not to be that we are watching this morning, fiat kreisler apparently had approached general motors about some sort of deal according to the new york times. this is in march, apparently. gm said no thanks we do not want to discuss the merger and you can see shares are down 1% on that are general motors is off half of a percent on that. erik: thank you. john of morgan stanley is still with us. we were talking about economic data and why they matter. to what degree do you as a market strategist care whether the fed hikes in september, whether the fed holds off until 2016? does it matter that much at this point? >> it does. our view for some time is tapering and tightening. 18 months into the tightening
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process. it is not a big deal that big scheme of things, but the market will pay attention to it. you see the yield curve flattening. we're in the middle and mid stages of the process. the actual hike itself could be a good thing for the economy in the market, especially with all the nervousness around what color sweater she is wearing today. stephanie: how will it change your view? >> it would change our view on economic growth. very clear the first quarter weakness we saw was transitory. if we do not get the pickup they would probably delay the hike and that would probably have negative outlook for the u.s. economy and that is that for stocks. erik: this should not matter one iota to the medium to long term.
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>> i will give you a positive spin. the fed thinks the company is doing well enough. i would say that is a cynical view. all those favorites getting nothing, a lot of older people in our society relying on income , no one is running a victory lap over that. it could be a boost to consumer spending. we think the hike could be potentially positive markets. the rapid appreciation of the dollar did the fed's job for them and likely pushed out the job until later this year. not nearly at the pace we saw last year.
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where is their value? we think the pitch in the market is in japan. you have got cheap evaluations, very aggressive monetary policy, sometimes not aggressive fiscal policy. everyone has been having difficulty defining. they are encouraging companies to finally get back to shareholders. the japanese market is crushing it this year. we think the trend could continue. erik: you see other japanese companies following the example of the nook, for example. stephanie: we have never seen that before. classic has been a very long time. two outside directives on your board. value to shareholders, whether it is buying back shares, increasing dividends, deals and things like that.
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people think the japanese companies are sitting on their hands. we'll is talk about it from u.s. perspective. cash and balance sheet are massive. we think there is a long-term, positive trend going on in the japanese equity market. stephanie: you mentioned starving and that has pushed so many investors into the credit markets, high yield. are you concerned we approaching bubble territory? >> i do not think we are quite there yet. deals are very high, and you're also seeing interest going up very high. i they get some point, we will want to take the trade off. but we are not there yet.
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we might go back into equities. it really depends on what is going on at the time. i think high yields have some life left at least for the next six to 12 months. erik: thank you. stephanie: stay with us. an interview with charter communications ceo coming up at 10:00 a.m. eastern. you do not want to miss this. you have not taken a victory lap just yet, but he is having a good morning. ♪
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let's get more on this from the bloomberg personal finance reporter taking collins. walk us through this. if you are a billionaire before your 40 years old, how do you maximize that? peggy: this report found most self-made billionaires in the u.s. made their money through financial services company spirit rising quickly behind them are tech entrepreneurs. not to leave them out. they certainly are making more and are worth more on average, 7.8 billion versus the financial people. erik: we are talking about the sell side. we're talking about hedge funds and private equity firms. >> that is where people are making their money the hedge fund side of things. erik: there was a brief moment when jimmy came was a millionaire. peggy: in asia, the money was made in real estate whereas in europe, when he think about some
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of the beverage companies, the old family money in europe, that is where the money is mostly concentrated. stephanie: those are all pretty old businesses. peggy: most of the new billionaire dollar wealth is created in asia. 20 years ago there were a few self-made billionaires in asia and today, they are the fastest growing segment. erik: what does ubs say about the future for billionaires? as many new billionaires as we are seeing today. peggy: they are negative on this front. they believe we may hit a stalling of billionaires going forward because of changes in tax policies, assets and preservation and we are about to see the greatest transfer of wealth ever in the history of the world. in america alone, there are expected to be a $60 billion
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transfer to the next generation over the next several decades has many of the self-made billionaires are aging, coming close to 60. erik: it is a question these firms will have to address presently if you have got steve schwarzman or david rubenstein they are all getting on and you cannot run the firm forever. >> i'm pretty sure john gray is ready to take it. peggy: the question is, is the money inside the company or have they actually liquidated it? you will see some money start to circulate around the role that people decide where to put it. stephanie: is that were prevalent? it is all in real estate clearly it is not liquid.
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peggy: a lot of it is jack ma shares of companies like alibaba that have not transferred to relatives or to charity. it certainly touches upon the fact that 100 billionaires around the world decided to give their money away with a giving pledge and that there is expected to be a lot more money circulating as a billionaires age. erik: thank you. stephanie: peggy collins. erik: time for top headlines. home prices in 20 large american cities rose faster than expected in the past year. the s&p housing index increased 5% in the year ending in march and economists say that reflects the market, san francisco and denver post and the biggest price gains, 2% each. in one case, u.s. military jets escorted a flight into the u.s.
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city. someone claimed a chemical weapon was on board. one of the threats are said to be credible. stephanie: goldman sachs bucking the trend on puerto rico bonds. it has a most quadrupled its stake in junk bonds in a little more than 12 months. at the start of the month, it held $1.3 billion worth. the yield is 10%, and most of the mutual fund holders have been cutting their stakes and goldman is taking a different turn. a gml free version of america passes top baby formula brand is headed for stores. available by the end of the month. the formula is made by the company that says it might make other formulas without genetically altered ingredients, depending on sales paradigm will throw it out there. i'm a mother of three to mothers are going to love the product. erik: coming up, mechanical watches are facing tough
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erik: coming up, charter ceo tom rutledge. we will be joined to discuss the california drought and his plans to make wastewater's drinkable. and the founder of area will be here to talk about the future of telecom. it is all coming up in a few minutes. stephanie: innovation in the watch industry does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. stephen sactown with the ceo to talk about how consumer is changing and how they are much more interested now in what is going on outside of the watch
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rather than on the inside. klassen the past there was a collector for the kinds of watches we were making. i realize now that today, the consumer is more and more interested by the look more than what is inside of the watch. for me, it could be the question we have to promote, again, much more what is inside of the watch and not only what is outside of the watch. it is a question for the future. >> last year, you celebrated the 10th anniversary of your partnership. can you tell us why it has continued for so long? >> 10 years ago, to try to sign a license. i refused it because i know it
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is dangerous for a company to get a license. because you never are the owner of the license. we proposed to make a partnership to try to sell as many watches, and not to make a watch with the consumer. we decided to make very expensive watches. we produce 40 watches per year so it is nice and really for people -- >> you have 15 boutiques, a few of which are in china. us wondering if you could be given a bit about whether the slowdown has affected your business at all, or if you see the change in how your markets are shaking out. >> what is changing is not the chinese consumer.
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the chinese consumer is still active worldwide. what is changing is where. for the moment, the people in america, the u.s., europe buying a lot of watches. in china, they reduce the number of watches bought. them fighting about the problem of vaccination in all these types of things. the most important for us is not the changed market in china, but the can simmer in hong kong. in hong kong, they still run it. >> it is difficult to have a conversation about watches today without apple coming up. if you've your competitors have come out with creative ways to include connectivity without creating out and outsmart watch. any plans to do anything digital or electronic?
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>> the first reason, almost nobody honestly, even a swiss company that tried to give the impression we compete -- secondly, the most important as we have no confidence in switzerland to produce this because of the price. if we are doing the business, we had to stop producing that watch. stephanie: that was the ceo of parmigiani. erik: we are now at a point where we could with some confidence announce direction for u.s. stocks in that direction would be down. julie hyman is here to talk about some morning movers. the only thing i can see really apart from his two-year yield is the vicks. >> two-year yield coming up
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which means volatility. cut or the sheer index, as they like to call it, and the parlance of traders. the yield going up as one of the reasons we have seen stocks going down. we hear from janet yellen back of lettuce, rates are likely to go up sometime this year. not only that, you have the durable goods number this morning that came in better than estimate. if the data is good, that allows you being the fed to raise rates at least in theory. we have seen this sort of good news is bad news market for a while now. >> it is a negative for those addicted to the central bank stimulates. >> at least in theory. then you have this view by many in the bond market, that rates would not go up this year, at least not significantly, but really the move would be 2016.
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there are two separate issues here. the day-to-day jockeying and then a longer-term, realistic view of when we will see rates go significantly higher. we are operating on these two separate tracks. the short-term and the longer-term realistic track. >> i'm here he from guys in the market around greece. i know john just said to us, it does not really matter. it does when we're talking about an environment where many people are invested not on fundamentals but more on momentum because they are saying they have to be. the moment you have any uncertainty of whether it is volatility or greece not going through, we are starting to see people twitchy little bit. >> when do we not have uncertainty? when do we know what will happen, especially on greece? stephanie: isn't that the point
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if there is not uncertainty, the market should not be a sure thing? erik: if everyone were certain about everything, there would be no point in investing. stay with bloomberg, everybody. an interview with ceo of charter communications, tom rutledge, is coming up. you do not want to miss it. stick around. we will see you tomorrow. ♪
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price right? erik: the creative force behind apple gets a new title. johnny ive's name the chief of creative operations. olivia: and the $100 million home. what does that by you? we show you the plans for this record-breaking piece of california real estate. good morning and welcome to the bloomberg market day. erik: we have breaking news on the economy. sales and consumer confidence. julie hyman has those numbers. julie: it looks like we have a 34. -- threefer.
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