mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. the rand paul government surveillance victory lap -- [ whispers] rams they are still listening. mark: happy national heimlich maneuver day, sports fans. on the show tonight, a message from bernie sanders, a love note for scott walker, but first, a lindsaygram. that cracked me up. he is the ninth republican to officially enter the field.

it will get even more crowded soon. at a rally in his childhood home of central south airliner, graham talked about his best central, south carolina, graham talked about his roots. senator graham: the world is exploding in terror and violence. i am running for president because i have the experience, the judgment, and the will to deny the most radical regimes the most dangerous weapons. mark: -- john: we're going to talk more about lindsey graham later in the show. is he running for the presidency or to make a point? mark: both. low-energy today. less like the launch of a movement, more like a guy having a time with his community crowd. i think he can be a huge factor in this race, bigger than most people do, but it would be hard to see a path to the nomination. john: i respect lindsey graham enough to think he knows he is

not going to be the nominee. i think he is running to make a point. he has a distinctive brand of foreign policy hawkishness. he is worried about his party being pulled into an isolationist place by rand paul. we missed the debate over the patriot act this weekend. i think he wants to be a counterweight and make sure the party stays on the path to national security. mark: rand paul wins iowa and new hampshire. lindsey graham wins south carolina. they head into the south. the party is desperate to stop rand paul. lindsey graham beats him in the southern primaries. could that make him the nominee? john: i am not saying there is no scenario, but i think it is far-fetched. there are other establishment candidates, jeb bush, marco rubio. mark: but can they win a state? john: south carolina is going to get discounted by lindsay's favored son status. mark: bernie sanders is now

drawing bigger crowds in iowa than any other presidential prospect of either party. a story chronicling the outbreak of bernie mania, "the new york times" says that thursday in davenport, 750 people showed up to listen to bernie sanders. 50 turned out for martin o'malley on saturday the day on announced his presidential campaign. that is not the only big crowd sanders has drawn. others in iowa turning out for him, and his rise is reflected in our new "des moines register." hillary clinton is dominating the field, but look at bernie sanders. he has gone from 5% in the last poll in january, 16%, tripling his support over the course of that time when he did announce for president. o'malley clocking in at just 2% although our survey was completed just as he was formally entering the race.

bernie sanders, 16%, a huge jump up. he is being touted by many people as the threat to hillary clinton. can martin o'malley, in iowa and nationally, become the clinton alternative, or is it sanders now? john: i hope you were going to ask, is there anything that can stop bernie sanders from being the next president of the united states. martin o'malley is more conventionally attractive younger, fantastic looking, more mainstream instead of a far left liberal. he could have his moment in iowa. bernie mania could burnout, and you could see how the flowering of o'malley fever before we get to january. mark: there are other democrats who may run, but you can imagine a scenario where sanders weakens clinton rhetorically and in the caucuses, and o'malley steps in, and democrats panic if there is a clinton controversy. i think because o'malley is a more conventional candidate, he could benefit from sanders' streangths.

in the short time, he better move up in the polls. john: he has to have an economic message as distinctive as barney and has to start going after the clintons in a more pointed way. now for the republican side of our new iowa poll. few 2016 contenders have spent less time campaigning in the hawkeye state this cycle then scott walker. iowans do not care. the wisconsin governor has extended his lead, pulling in 17% of the vote, followed by rand paul and ben carson at 10% each, and jeb bush and mike huckabee at 9% each. what is it, if he is not showing up in the state? what accounts for walker's growing strength in iowa? mark: we have seen other people from neighboring states not do well in iowa. tommy thompson. walker is from a neighboring state. he grew up in iowa. not only do people like that fact, but they are comfortable

with him culturally and know his record in wisconsin not just from hearing about it across the border, but because he has been there enough that it is starting to burn through. i think walker right there is in a stronger position than our poll indicates in the sense that he has not been there much. john: the geography think, if you look deep in these numbers -- a lot of his strength comes from the northwest corner of the state, which is familiar because they get wisconsin media. he is making himself into an iowa candidate. his positions on immigration are popular with the iowa base. he is running as an evangelical candidate, not the establishment scott walker. he is running as the base pleasing grassroots version. that is part of the appeal. he is running straight to the heart of the iowa base. mark: he has not had much hand-to-hand combat. people have taken on other candidates. no one has taken him on yet. john: 17 is a good score. shall bachmann was at 23 in the

last cycle, so he could easily collapse. mark: key parts of the patriot act expired just after midnight. revisions that let the public sees phone records in bulk and use roving wiretaps disappeared. you can either blame or thank senator rand paul, who is being accused of blocking a new surveillance measure to help his presidential campaign. on fox news this morning, paul defended himself and lashed out at his critics. senator paul: no one questions my sincerity in defense of the fourth amendment and bill of rights. those who do are simply trying to make the debate into a tawdry debate, trying to use personal innuendo which i think is really beneath all of us. we ought to have a better debate on the facts. mark: his victory will be short-lived or at least short term. the senate is expected to pass the house bill this week that would reinstate the surveillance provisions, but put new limits on book data collection programs. my question to you is, after

this fight with the patriot act is over, has rand paul helped or hurt himself trying to become the nominee? john: 100% helped. after a relatively good announcement when he got into the race, he sort of disappeared for a while. these are his issues. this is the core of his appeal. he is going to ride these to the nomination or not, but there is no other way for him. this issue put him in the spotlight. he loves that other republicans are attacking. he likes that controversy. it is good for him. mark: i disagree. the liberty agenda is potent and face appeals -- this appeals to people who want him to fight, but he has made it too personal. several republicans have said he is talking too much about himself and being attacked, not the principal. when he becomes "poor me" rand paul, the establishment turns against him in a way that will hurt his chances. john: i agree about the defensiveness, but this is a victory. it has shown the republican

party moved in his direction. mark: he can win, but not acting like this. john: i am not sure establishment support is his way to win. mark: acting on principle is always good for presidential politics. john: by now, you have heard the tragic news that beau biden former attorney general of delaware, passed away saturday from brain cancer. he was 46. there has been an ordinary outpouring of condolences from across the political spectrum and around the country from people who, whether they knew him or not, could sense what a devoted public servant and good guy he was, and the connection between him and his father. >> he is the father i have always known, the grandfather my children love and adore, and the vice president our nation needs. tonight, mr. chairman, it is my great honor to place into nomination for the office of vice president of the united states my father, my hero, joe

biden. [applause] john: there have been a lot of things said about beau biden. he is obviously a guy who did not take the easy way, who wanted to work for it, who served in the military, did all those things. we knew beau biden. we know joe biden. the bond between them is so powerful. you could not spend time with either of them without having them gush about each other. the depth of that bond is an extraordinary -- spend 10 minutes with joe biden without him talking in the most effusive terms about his son. the feelings were obviously mutual. it is a mostly ideal father-son relationship. mark: beau biden was a great guy, great public servant, and touched for the much everybody he met. for joe biden and the whole family, a tragedy to have his public career when he first got to the senate art by the death of another child and his wife. to have his career at the end of

his career have this happen is unimaginable. john: unspeakable sad. our condolences to joe biden, dr. jill biden all of the biden family. lindsey graham when we come back. later tonight, we unveil a new look at piling -- pulling in iowa. -- at polling in iowa. ♪

john: central, south carolina was at the center for an event where lindsey graham announced he would seek the office of the presidency. at the senate of his pitch was his distinct brand of hawkish foreign policy and a bold claim about his own potentials. senator graham: radical islam is running wild. they have more safe havens, more money, more capability, and more

weapons to strike our homeland than any time since 9/11. they are large. they are rich. they are entrenched. as president, i will make them small, poor, and on the run. i have more experience with our national security than any other candidate in this race. [applause] senator graham: that includes you, hillary. mark: he takes a jab at hillary clinton but highlights the fact they are friends. our poll shows -- all republican polling shows foreign policy is a big deal. is that a distinctive enough measure -- message, or is he just rand paul? john: there is a little bit of that. the issue matters a lot. his level of experience does not matter much. it matters some. where he is on these issues is further to the right and a lot

of republicans are. mark: how was he further to the right, as predicted today? john: i think the base is more in line with where rand paul is, on the issue of privacy and the nsa, but i think he is not that much further to the right on where we should be projecting strength around the world. which means it is not distinctive enough for him to set him part dramatically. mark: the one he and john mccain have talked about is putting ground troops in lots of places. i was surprised in this speech that -- that excerpt is representative. he talked a lot about the threat, but little about specifics. did not stake out where he might go to say to the hawkish wing of the party, i am not ted cruz not jeb bush -- i am different. john: let's go onto the next piece of video and sound. lindsey graham's speech was not all tough talk. announced his aspirations not far from the pool hall and restaurant his parents once owned, he recalled the time

when, after his parents died, he and his sister relied on something many republicans do not speak fondly of -- government support. senator graham: we lost our parents when i was young man and she was in middle school. we depended on social security benefits to survive. i have been fortunate. i have done better than i ever dreamed. if i and others like me have to take a little bit less and pay a little more to help those who need it most, so be it. and younger people, you may just have to work a little bit longer. as president i will gladly do what it takes to save a program that once saved my family. john: so lindsey graham does care about entitlement reform but my question is whether he is going to be seen as just a foreign policy candidate. will this message breakthrough? mark: chris christie has gotten ahead of him, talking about

entitlement reform in a bold way. i think his personal story is pretty compelling. i am surprised he did not tell more of it today. to me the question is can there be a narrative associated with lindsey graham? is there a story about his upbringing he can burn in with folks in new hampshire, where he is going to make a big play? it is a heartwarming story and a heart wrenching story, but i do not know he has the capacity given his nature, to tell it in a way that will burn in for folks. john: entitlement reform is an issue people here in washington a lot. it is not an issue many voters get excited about. it is an issue that, when he starts to put meat on the bones, is not going to be super popular anywhere. mark: finally, graham tried to pitch himself to the nation as a guy who is willing to work with anybody, including the other party. senator graham: to my friends in the other party, on the big

things, we share a common faith. i will work with you to strengthen the country we both love. our differences are real, and we will debate them. but you are not my enemy. you are my fellow countrymen. two americans who trust neither party i will seek the political common ground our nation so desperately needs to find. [applause] senator graham: that is what i have done before. don't take my word for it. examine my record. i got the scars to prove it. mark: this is a split in the party. graham is up there with k-6 and bush in saying, we have to work with democrats to get things done. -- up there with john kasich ambush. john: i applaud him for that message and do not think it is resonant.

on the one issue where he is most -- what he is best known for and where he speaks most powerfully, he is not bipartisan at all. the positions he takes on foreign intervention and military muscle around the world are ones where democrats have no truck with it. so it is not like he can point to on his core issue, examples -- mark: he did not make a big deal about climate change today. when we come back, we are going to introduce you to the seltzer score. and pulling -- and polling will never be the same! ♪

john: we have been talking all show about the new poll, but the horserace numbers can only tell us so much. joining us now is jan salter --

a new way to break through the polling. tell us, what is the seltzer score? >> it is not the equivalent of the bcs score, so let me say that off the bat. it is simple and easy to understand. our problem is we have a group of people who are huddled at the bottom. we have a clear front runner and upper tier, and a bunch of people that one percentage point could change their position in the ranking. how could we spread the field, was my goal. the first thing that was important was to get the most votes for first place. we take that score and we double it. that counts twice. second place, that is another candidate out of 16 you are saying you could support, so we are going to count that as part of yourself serve -- your selzer score. nobody is going to end up with

many so we added in candidates who you said, i could see myself supporting that person. we cut that number in half. we add those numbers together, you get your selzer score. mark: when you do that for this field of presidential candidates in iowa, who comes out on top? whose numbers divide out the way you want to, to get a sense of standings? ann: scott walker shows you just how strong he is, because he now has the most points at 64 point five. the next person up there is 51.5, and that is mike huckabee. you can see it is spreading the field. georgia tech he is at the bottom at 11. what it does is to create gradations within that field to better sort them out. some people and up with a better standing because of this, and some people have a worse standing once we take those three factors into consideration. john: one of the things that is

most noticeable when you look at the selzer score is that marco rubio jumps in the leaderboards and jeb bush falls back. talk about that dynamic and how you explain how this applies in this case. ann: this is where looking just at that first place is sort of -- it undercounts marco rubio's potential strengths. he has the most voters saying he is my second choice. that helps in quite a bit. and a large number of people say, i could see myself supporting him. he moved up. he was tied at six with santorum. he is now tied for third with huckabee, i think. jeb bush, on the other hand, has a problem, in terms of his ability to generate that kind of "ever" support. among people who say he is not their first or second, there is a fair number of people who say, "and i could never support him."

he drops. he was tied for fourth and drops down to sixth. what this does is, if you are looking to the future in iowa, pay more attention to marco rubio, because he has potential momentum to take off, and jeb bush is one more example of the challenges that underscore his candidacy so far. mark: obviously, this like all polls is a snapshot. how hard is it in iowa and in general for candidates to turn people from saying, i will never vote for jeb bush, to being open for voting for him? does that happen with enough regularity he can hope to change this? ann: all these candidates need to spend more time in the state. i am struck when i talk to people about their commitment at this point. they say, i don't really know that candidate. in particular, jeb bush, they say, i don't really know. what that means in iowa is, they have not heard his positions. they have not had a chance to see him in person.

they do not feel they can take the measure of the man on the basis of what they have seen. that "ever" is most changeable by people getting to know the candidate and getting a feel for what kind of president that person would be. john: i want to ask you something. i know we are giving attention to the selzer score, but i want to emphasize you are the gold standard pollster for america. i believe you are saying this numerical ranking you have come up with is actually a better reflection of reality than the horserace number. is that right? ann: that is exactly what i am saying. i think the horserace all by itself gives you a bit of the picture, an important bit of the picture. that if you are looking to winnow a failed of 16 -- a field of 16, you need ways of verifying the people in the top half of that list are really the people who are going to be the ones with the greatest potential to stay in the race, and to break through with voters and end up with a near victory.

top three. mark: ann selzer, thanks very much. ♪

john: our guest tomorrow in studio, george for tacky presidential candidate. ♪

>> we are moments away from the closing bell. this is bloomberg market day. i am alix steel. alix: you are looking at stocks snapping a two-day losing streak. the dow settling up by about 29 points. at one time, the dow was up by 95 points at its session high. finishing off the high of the session, but still relatively higher on the day.