auto sales numbers, and what they mean for the thickest company running america's gas stations. >> a bloomberg exclusive. why relations between russia and the west are not as bad as some think. >> vanity fair introduces the world to caitlin jenner. we will hear from the publisher on how it got the worldwide exclusive. betty: good morning, i am betty liu. erik: i am erik schatzker. betty: julie hyman is in the newsroom with the headlines. julie: a lot of the decline had

to do with aircraft orders and transportation. if you back that out you get an unchanged reading. 1% which orders fell was from a .5% drop. x air capital goods orders, the ucla see a decline of 3/10 of 1% . it looks like this has to do with transportation. in terms of reaction that we might be seeing in stocks, you're not seeing much. maybe a leg down from where we were just before these numbers came out. thank you. betty: let's look at what else is making news. auto sales were better than expected. gm had a 3% rise. analysts forecasted growth would be flat. fiat chrysler had its best mate beatingcade, up 4%,

estimates. sales of the chrysler 200 scythian sword. ford fell last month. lincoln was up almost 4%. greece plus creditors have --ched an agreement to un to unlock bailout. hans nichols is in london with more. hans: we have had a whirlwind morning. there weree heard five liters. mario draghi, lagarde, merkel, hollande, they worked late into the night. they now have an agreement to send to greece. alexis tsipras said independently that he would send his own proposal to his creditors. we have dueling proposals.

the euro was gaining strength, and through this you had jeroen dijsselbloem leading the eurogroup who said we are not making enough progress. then, the euro dropped. you cannot leave jeroen dijsselbloem out of the conversations. he is one of the most important finance ministers, and he is saying no deal. the creditors were not simply capitulate. erik: i would call that a reality check. thank you, hans. of 3/10 of acrease percent is positive news for ecb policymakers. a deflation scare forced them to release a trillion euro stimulus program. they increase the fastest and nine months. the senate could vote today on a bill changing the national security agency's ability to collect phone records.

if it becomes law, the nsa would only be able to gather phone records for six months to a year while it transitions out of the program. it will allow other surveillance programs to continue. congress is holding a he aring on train safety focusing on the amtrak train in philadelphia last month. lawmakers want to know why amtrak did not spend the money ony made on their route safety measures. 8 passengers were killed. those are your top stories. hour, jeremynext siegel says there is no end to the six-year bull market. why he disagrees with investors who believes equities are overvalued. the fresh prince of bel air could not afford this l.a. area home that will cost half $1

billion. and include -- an exclusive interview sergey lavrov who says relations with america are not as bad as people think. he says russia is working with america and diplomats on several issues. betty: you just listed all the topics i wanted to sound off on. they're rolling out a mixed picture for carmakers. joining us to look at the latest numbers are matt miller. man who runsthe the biggest chain of gas stations, the executive vice president of shell retail. not, set the stage for what we have seen so far with car sales. we were supposed to hit 17 million? matt: that is what our seasonally adjusted average rate is this month. it is a positive picture if you look at the numbers, compared to the estimates of analysts.

ford is down 1.3 percent. we are expecting unit sales to drop 3.1%. gm and chrysler were better than the estimate, as well. it has been a great year. it will continue being a great year. there is a sales rate of 17 million. betty: what does that mean for shell? >> it is positive. inm looking after our retail the world, 45 thousand gas stations in 80 countries. i was happy to see this. betty: you look like you are going to go podcast. year.: we do that every

gas prices areer allowing americans to buy cars that are bigger. for example, suvs and pickup trucks, for the 25th month in a row. more truck sales because of low steady gas prices at shell and other retail gas stations. att: is that how consumers think? look at gasally selling for two dollars to be five cents a gallon and decide, i can go buy a f-150 now? istvan: i would think that people feel more relaxed to buy bigger cars. the trend is a long time span of lower price. erik: what would be the trend over seven or eight years?

istvan: they would be careful. ,e do not see a direct time-wise, immediate correlation between sales increasing and increasing the costs increasing or decreasing when you have a flat decline in price. 50 is pushing 30 gallon. the same percent of the silverado's. these big tracks are getting the same mileage a honda accord was getting. van isason i contacted ist because shell has a product that provides fuel efficiency and allows your engine to run smoother. people have been asking me for years but gasoline to use. i talked to engineers at carmakers, an expert from aaa, and they said the better

detergent added to a gasoline mixture improves the fuel efficiency and and or and's over time. e over time.anc betty: i beg us all the time. the only thing i pay attention to is who has the cheapest gas. who arethe people driving cars requiring premium see more customers are loyal to brand then typical fuels. as a matter of fact, it is not as strong as it should be. the reason the game changing product to the market, the premium gasoline, is attracting threatsne against three -- gunk, corrosion, and engine wear. this is now combined into two different --

betty: you advertise that? why do people call matt miller? we are advertising starting today. on times where you can see a pop-up show service station. productevron has their that they analyze, research, and develop, and they also have labs around the world researching these products. they also work with ferrari and formula one, which is why i automatically think of shell, and i'm sure that is a big marketing expenditure for you. istvan: it is very important for sure. we have been working with the rally for 60 years. most important part of the relationship is sponsorship, the lubricants and fuel development. we take our the board tory to every race around the world. and scientists

on with ferrari analyzing the fuel consumption during the race. it is important because we take it from the track to the road. scientiststhings the are learning, and the developments from the show premium gasoline, we learned from the track to make sure our customers can also get the benefit. betty: thank you very much. of shell oil, and matt miller, our guru on autos. of theeremy siegel wharton school on why the bull market will keep going on and on. ♪

>> in the women's race it was quaint gardens and as she won her second consecutive title in london. this was her 10th straight u.s. victory as she finished ahead. without wind, she strengthens her lead in the columbia rankings ahead of new zealand. the triathlon series is brought to you by columbia.

betty: good morning. welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i'm betty liu. erik: i'm erik schatzker. let's go to julie hyman. we have to clients across the board. all of the negotiations on greece in europe is something that he lists investors have been following. they have been following economic data that came out this morning. factory orders came out worse than estimated, the major averages are down from one quarter to one third of 1%. i want to bring your attention to commentary from the operator

of fixed portfolios at black rock. he is the latest in his physician to sound the alarm on what we are seeing in the corporate bond market. he says all of the companies that have been returning cash to shareholders over the last several years, that that comes at a price, and that might be performance in the bond market. what i have is a graph of the last several years bursting dividends. what you see in the green is dividend growth that has been mushed together in the end. has fallen over three years. even ase negative bars, dividends have kept growing. these are stock buybacks. there has been a huge carriage return to shareholders when cap x has remained negative. he says that will be a problem for bond performers. the last up 30% over

five years. he is sounding a warning over whether this will be able to continue if we do not see a slipping of investments by companies and their own businesses. betty: thank you, julie hyman. at some of thek top stories. herbalife is on the offensive against its nemesis, bill ackman. supplement company calls bill ackman and irresponsible opportunist and has launched a website called thereal billackman.com which paints him as a responsible opportunist. bill ackman calls herbalife at pyramid scheme. is ready for a run on wall street. the ipo is seeking a valuation of at least $3 billion. and amended ipo registration will offer nearly 30 million shares at a price between $14

and $16. the company will trade under the ticker symbol as i see. they had a $100 million profit last year and millions in revenue. is delaying a multimillion dollar oil project in the gulf of mexico. they say that cables required to tether this sank last week. there were no injuries. the situation may threaten chevron's goal in 2015. the platform was due to start late this year. to itlatform, i've been in court this trustee, texas christi, in corpus texas before it was towed out to sea. if supposed to be anchored to the seafloor by tendons, there are 16 of them. yesterday, six of them sank.

now, chevron has to told the platform back into shallow water. it will be months to fix it. there is no way chevron can start pumping oil at the end of the year. i saw the tendons. they arestructures, not elastic, but they function like an elastic to anchor the platform to the seafloor. they are thousands of feet long. many thousands of feet long. it is not easy to get that back up and running. betty: it is interesting to see you take that tour. what was the biggest thing you learned? feet tall. 450 it is a floating skyscraper. goldman sachs pits of economist robert and jeremy siegel and a head-to-head on views is stocks are overvalued.

siegel says stocks have risen and a correction could be coming, in the meantime jimmy siegel takes the opposite view. the current valuation of the market by the current price earnings ratio is higher than i think a average, higher p/e ratio is justified in the world of record low interest rates. even when the fed raises them, they are still going to remain low on the historical standard. in my estimation, and my a lower discount rate means a higher average valuation for the stock market. i do not believe that it is overvalued at current levels. erik: he makes a good point. that is why it is hard to or siegal.th shale

siegel agrees with him, there a new neutral for the fed's rate. there's a new concept of the discount rate you have to factor into equity returns. it makes sense. betty: you took the words out of my mouth. this is the guy who wrote the book on staying in stocks for the long run. what else do you expect him to say? erik: he is not about to disagree with himself, but he views things through relative one ends. even if stocks are overvalued, and hearing knowledges they are high, treasuries are more overvalued. believe that is one of his past occasions. still ahead, the most expensive house in the u.s. if you make money on the stock

market, put it into houses. we will look at this half $1 billion home. ♪

erik: one of the biggest homes in american history is rising on a los angeles hilltop. 100,000 square feet. the developer wants to sell it for $500 million. that would be a record. we look at what goes into selling mega mansions. view of a los angeles mega mansion in construction. the asking price is $.5 billion. has -- d director while we cannot access the l.a. nearby, thissite,

is a property we can. 20 of five acres on the bil -- 25 acres on a belair hilltop. to palazzo de amore. joyce ray. you will take me on a tour. 2010, i close the highest sale in the united states at $50 million in 2010. we are seeing sales at $100 million. >> the music room is first. >> isn't this spectacular? >> this is three times the size of my apartment. this is a family room. there's a vineyard in the backyard. >> this is the upstairs winetasting and wine cellar. this is my favorite, cabernet. >> there's a larger one

downstairs that holds more. there is a formal dining room and a two-story entertainment complex that is separate from the house. >> we are ready to dance. a revolving dance for, bowling alley, movie theater, and infinity pool. >> we get people around the world coming to look. if you want real estate that accommodates a large family, there are not many like this. >> more luxury properties like will sell over $100 million. 5.2 fires in new york, connecticut, france, and hong kong. they went for over $600 million in total. los angeles. we don't have an inequality problem. betty: i am just waiting for the

billion-dollar home. next year. million,we are at $500 looking at the inflation are highly valued assets, we will get there. that will do it for me. i will let you continue. betty: still ahead, an exclusive heerview with sergey lavrov says he has seen relations between his country and the u.s. moving toward normalization. we will be back. ♪

betty: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am betty liu. fore are two proposals

ending the stalemate on greece. alexis tsipras says his government has submitted a plan to unblock the rest of the bailout fund. the creditors of greece have come up with their own proposal. the head of the european finance ministers group says the two sides are not close to a deal. this happened in the wake of a late-night meeting in berlin hosted by angela merkel. trying to keep greece from default thing on its debt. costar group filled problems with airport security, leading to a shakeup at the transportation -- undercover with have revealed as airport security leading to a shakeup at the tsa. has beennd she redesigned. procedures will be changed. john kerry is in boston to have his broken leg treated.

john kerry arrived last night on a military flight from switzerland. he broke his leg while cycling in france. he will have to limit his travel, which could complicate efforts to reach an agreement on iran's nuclear program by the end of the month. coming up, budget airlines are booming in india, but are the pilots properly trained. why some pilots are retrieving less than one hour of training before taking to the sky. that the magazine cover everyone is talking about. we will hear from the publisher of "vanity fair" about caitlin jenner's debut. is seeking a multibillion dollar valuation. relations between russia and u.s. are thawing according to

sergey lavrov who asked about the minister's meeting with john kerry. sergey: i believe this is the realistic approach, getting the upper hand. people paidsed that so much attention to the fact that john kerry spent several hours with the russian leader and his counterpart. if you take 2015, the year of , which wasin ukraine used by some people to try to derail the relations between russia and the u.s., last year john kerry and myself, we met 17 times. more than any of my counterparts. every time, it was several hours. it was a business-like discussion on syria, yemen,

iraq, afghanistan, and of course, ukraine. the fact that another round of talks took place on russian soil , it is a welcome sign, but more symbolic than substantial. it is not the quantity of time, but the quality. in 2009 we had a reset in russian-american relations, which did not go far. what we are seeing now with relations is not a reset, why not? if you take the original reset, it was not our invention, it was the invention of hillary clinton and the obama administration. george bush, junior was pushing

for good personal relations. i was on good terms with condoleezza rice. down tothis did not go the political level. the american administration, when barack obama became president, reassessed the state --relations with rust that relations with russia and decided it was better to have a more forthcoming approach. it was a reset of the policy with russia. then, the presidential commission was created to work each and covering every imaginable area of human activity. then, all of this was abruptly because we could not, oup did not, except the c

in ukraine that was supported by the united states. i believe that we are realistic. president putin talks to president obama over the phone from time to time. they are pragmatic and discuss specific areas of cultivation were both countries could benefit. i would not call it a reset, i would call it the realization of the need for normalcy. betty: normalcy. that was the russian foreign minister, sergey lavrov. we'll have a look at what he means and what it really means for russian relations. we are joined by the diplomacy team leader in washington. john, you heard what he was talking about this. it is not possible at this point for a new reset and russian -american relations, but a new

normalcy. describe what that means. usn: it means, you leave alone in ukraine, and we can work together in other areas like syria, iraq, iran, etc. in mention of the coup ukraine is interesting, and a suggestion the united states had to reset relations with russia legitimateze their interests. you have to read between the lines of the interviews to get the real meaning. interesting things happened today that were not part of the interview. russian jets buzzed and worship in the black sea, and a report out of pressure is that they are prepared to sell antiaircraft missiles to iran. pressure those cases, is asserting its rights as a great power to do what is in russia's interest, regardless of what the americans think.

non-involvement in eastern ukraine is off the table for the u.s., right? john: it is off the table. there is a genuine conflict of interest. is saying isavrov that we are not going to pay attention to your concerns in eastern ukraine. the government in kiev is illegitimate. we are going to do what is in russia's interest, and you cannot stop us. betty: what do you make about what he said about the islamic state? clashing of the heads between the u.s. and russia over .he syrian president they say, work with us, work with the shore -- work with the andwork with bashar

that is how you will be the islamic state. to take the leader out of power. what you make of that? john: that is exactly what he said. you need to change or policy and recognize that our ally, russia's most important ally in the arab world, bashar al-assad will remain in power, and we will work out a solution short of toppling his government, which until not long ago, was the focus of u.s. policy in syria. but he is saying is that the united states must recognize and if youterest, do, we will work together, but only on russia's terms, not only on yours. betty: thank you for giving us feedback. in washington for us. more breaking news on the sales of auto numbers.

it is toyota? they have beat estimates. 1%,r sale is down 3/10 of the estimate was down 1.8%. .t is better than estimated gm's sales also rose more than estimated, of 3%. rd fell less than estimated. we have seen these numbers better than estimated. as for how toyota is trading, there's not much reaction. the u.s. sales are thinly traded, but they are down 1/10 of a percent. julie hyman. thank you. still ahead, budget airlines can save you a lot of money. are the pilots properly trained? receivingn india are less than one hour of training before they get into the

airplane. pretty scary stuff. we will be right back. ♪

betty: welcome back. i am betty liu. let's get you started on the market action. in europe hans nichols is in london with the standoff on greece. hans: we will see that play out in equities markets. the athens exchange is down 2.5% . in europe, we have a mixed picture. the dax is down. they and italy are up. in the dax we have deutsche bank of 2%. it had a tough year. reorganizations. work is down 2%.

let's move over and look at the pond market. it is looking good. france, the, and yields on all of those are going up. we did not see the diversions that we saw yesterday with germany in the red. i want to focus on the euro. it is up 1.84% on the day. a lot of that is often is and i'm what might be happening in greece, potentially. that we start getting word greece was going to formalize their offer, and they would be an offer from the creditors. this draft is when jeroen dijsselbloem, the dutch finance minister, said we are away from the deal. close backup, but not back to session highs, but all the way to 1.11. that is the main headline out of

europe. let's see what julie hyman has on the u.s. markets. in today'sbig movers section. peavy age is one of the best performers in the s&p 500. the stock is up. it is the owner of calvin klein and tommy hilfiger. the earnings beat the estimate sales. the company came out with a forecast that was ahead of what analysts had estimated. on the other end we have delta. we have seen rocking us in the airlines on concerns about how much capacity could grow, and what that could have on pricing power. shares are down 3% after the revenue gauge declined more than forecasted. we are talking about passenger revenue from each mile. it will drop from 4% to 5%.

some of thehts concerns in the industry. look at shake shack. there is no fundamental news, but the stock is up 2%. it has been a big mover, up and down. i want toate that, show you the 30 day volatility of shake shack. the white line has been trending upward in a big way. the orange line is volatility in 2000. it is deceiving because these are not to scale. for the the scale russell on one side, and shake shack on the other. the 30 day volatility on shake hack is 9.5. this has been a volatile stock versus its small peers over the last month or so. betty: so many people can have

opinions. who knew so many people get have an opinion on high end burgers. compositehe shanghai climbs for second day. they are valid more than 50% this year, the most among global benchmark indexes. india's central bank is flashing its interest rate for a third time. in part it is to get ahead of u.s. policymakers. this report is from hong kong. >> the reserve bank of india cut ts interest rate to 7.1% from 7.5%. this is to get away from the federal reserve interest rate .ncrease the reserve bank says the front load custis see how the monsoon -- willl in fact and affect inflation.

india's consumer prices are set the ball until august according to an economist survey. by januaryise 6% 2016. here are some of the top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal. ellen pao will appeal her loss in the gender discrimination valley.silicon a jury rejected her claims that she was discriminated against as a junior venture capitalist in kleiner perkins. she was fired when she complained. she is now the interim ceo of reddit. saysesearch firm ihs global smart watch shipments will rise to hundred 50%. there are estimations that apple will sell 20 million watches in 2015.

spending willsing exceed broadcast television spots according to a report. money spent on search engines and digital sources will climb 11% to $41.8 billion. broadcast revenue will rise to $38.9 billion. it will rise a small amount. those are your top stories. the finance professionals interested in? these are the most read stories on the bloomberg terminal. the one that caught our eye is the one about pilots in india and how they get certified. pimm fox joins us. i had been teasing this all along, which is true. some on twitter are saying it cannot be true. is not a question of how many hours they need, it is how many hours do they get.

you are looking at international airlines, like qantas, they are looking for 1500 hours. the recommendation is you don't want someone who does not ofeady have 1000 hours flight time. in the united states, most of the hours are recorded on a hobbs meter. this is a device that measures how long you are in the airplane , how long the oil is flowing, so you can tell. in india it is done in hand and has been budged. the government is trying to crack down, but in some cases they are getting 35 minutes of training and are logging more. they are saying instead of 100 hours, they really got 30 or 35 hours. this is part of the competition. how much are the fares? cents.wo

they're losing money because of the competition. it has less to do with the pilots, but that people want the jobs and will do anything to get them. fatalities in aircraft analysts are down since 2010. betty: i don't know how to .nterpret that thank you, pimm fox. still ahead on the bloomberg market day, social media blew up over the debut of caitlin jenner . we will look at what that means for the magazine, "vanity fair." ♪

betty: welcome back. social media is going crazy for caitlin jenner.

twitter followers and four hours. released that he fair their july cover of bruce jenner. cofounder people watched the behind-the-scenes video. than 80 fair reached 8 million unique visitors. received aair million unique visitors on their website. what does the craze over caitlin jenner mean for the magazine? >> this is a continuing story over two things. vanity fair is that center of moment.ural last month we had our biggest single day of traffic on the website with the release of the star wars portfolio. that did 1.5 million visitors. this date 8 million. the numbers are beyond anything we have ever seen. when kim kardashian said she

broke the internet, it took two hours to surpass the amount of tweet that she got from the champagne glass. from the money standpoint -- >> howdy make money off of it? trend replaces the newsstand. .e have an innovative pay wall we were sending people to vanity fair.com to purchase the issue or subscribe digitally. if you sit five now you can get the entire article one week in advance of the magazine hitting the newsstand. this is the first time we have released a cover a week in advance for people to get online before the magazine. make money,us to and in allows us to serve the huge volume of impressions for advertisers. the video impressions and of the

advertisers that are purchasing around the story itself. aik: will we ever get to point where advertisers can choose to advertise in the print version after they learn the cover. there might not be enough runway left before the magazine arrives at my doorstep, but if they knew caitlin jenner would be on the cover, either advertisers that would want to be a part of that? stephanie: isn't it hard to keep that under wraps? we have issues like the hollywood issue. they know it is coming out, and we see a huge spike on themed issues. it is more difficult when you are doing it around news events. there are advertisers that would love to embrace the topicality. the magazine -- erik: did you think it was going to be well received?

>> we knew after the diane sawyer interview. this was well planned after the interview, then we saw an amazing outpouring of support community and the population as a whole. that was her first indication this would not only be a traffic driver, but a warm welcome for caitlyn. betty: that was the vanity fair publisher with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. we have more on the next hour of the bloomberg market day. the highly anticipated ipo by fitbit. how they are pitching their growth strategy to investors. ♪

>> welcome to "bloomberg market day." says european negotiator

the two sides still are not close to a deal. emily: plus, how to justify a 3.3 million -- or in dollar by ua should, especially with apple becoming the latest competitor? hillary versus hedge funds. she says money managers are paid too much money and now one of them is fighting back. emily: -- betty: good morning, i am betty liu. pimm: i am pimm fox. let's begin with the market. stocks lower today and dow jones down and s&p 500 trades at 2107 at the climate 2/10 of a percent and the nasdaq falling .2% and lower by 10.5 points. betty: