tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg June 2, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
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says the two sides still are not close to a deal. emily: plus, how to justify a 3.3 million -- or in dollar by ua should, especially with apple becoming the latest competitor? hillary versus hedge funds. she says money managers are paid too much money and now one of them is fighting back. emily: -- betty: good morning, i am betty liu. pimm: i am pimm fox. let's begin with the market. stocks lower today and dow jones down and s&p 500 trades at 2107 at the climate 2/10 of a percent and the nasdaq falling .2% and lower by 10.5 points. betty: on the greek talk that is
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boosting the euro today. strengthening cannot most 10 weeks and surging nearly 2% against the dollar as we await word on whose proposal will make it. pimm: two proposals may be better than one. we will find out. top headlines at this hour. automakers beating sale estimates last month and general motors posted at the percent gain, best performance in may since 2007. analysts have forecasted that sales growth would be almost flat. chrysler had the best may in a decade. u.s. sales rose 4% last month beating estimates. ford says they actually fell last month but it was not as much as expected. ford brand sales were down more than 1% and link it was up almost 4%. meanwhile, nissan sales also felt less the next active. greece has come up with a proposal to break the stalemate
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but so has the european creditors. they are still not close to reaching a deal that would unlock the bailout funds and alert the greek default. the head of the european finance group says there has been progress but not enough. until greece comes up with economic reforms, the creditors will not sign off on any agreement. betty: the fed may not be as ready for liftoff as we previously thought. in a speech this morning, she said she is worried about the strength of the economy. peter cook has more on her speech and why it might be changing people's minds. the firstty, this is major public speech on monetary and policy in the economy and we , as gotten that she says you mentioned, the traction raising doubts in her own mind about the strength of the u.s. economy right now and as a consequence, the timing of any interest rate increase from the fed. she suggests it will not happen anytime soon. value to watchful
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waiting. while additional data help clarify the economy's underlying momentum in the face of headwinds from abroad. if the labor market strengthens further and inflation readings continue to improve, liftoff could come before the end of the year. peter: janet yellen said last month that it increased this year with the appropriate, so she did however go on to say that while the case for liftoff they not be immediate, it is growing clearer. brainerd also reiterated that when the fed does start to rate -- raise rates, setting the pace will be gradual. betty: thank you. peter cook in washington on those comments by brainerd. it is a moment that television come.ks you would always advertisers will spend more money online then they will on television. on broadcast tv. a report released by consulting said money spent on search engines and digital sources will climb 11% of ready to billion. tocast add revenue will rise
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39 billion dollars. those are your top stories this morning. coming up in the next hour on "the bloomberg market day," fitbit marketing to investors. how will it handle more competent -- competition from apple and shorter user attention spans? newesttephen king's novel goes on sale today and he has excelled hundreds of millions of books. his first bestseller was released in 1974. the secret behind his power. a new twist in the greek bailout saga, two plans are being drafted to try and solve the crisis. one by the greek government and the other by the creditors after an emergency mini in berlin. isogroup resident says there still -- they are still far from agreeing on a deal. pimm: kit juckes joins us and global strategist. euro david powell achieved economist for bloomberg intelligence. they both join us from london.
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kit, let's begin with you. our two plans better than one? on how big the gap is between the two plants. i think the fight that both sides are putting proposals forward at this point says percy, we are in a last ditch push to see if we can't close the gap between the two sides .nd get something done the fact that there is still a gap is slightly worrying but all along to meet our cliche quoted, we had to go down to the wire before we got anything done. are voting that they will get something done in the and, it probably will not be perfect but the two deals will show us what needs to be closed in terms of gaps and we will manage to couple something together. betty: right, but we all believe, hopefully, that they withmanage to come up something together. david, will they be able to get something together before they make their payment on friday? david: i am not so sure because many times in the past a are
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close to a deal and the greeks have always been optimistic but we do have the head of the eurogroup trying to quash their expectations. i think that in the end, it is on that important if they make the payment on friday because the ims has already said that greece has the option of bundling payments for the month of june and making one lump sum payment at the end of the month. pimm: david, will the medicine kill the patient? still have ans economy and country of matter what deal is reached? say the medicine has already killed the patient if you look at the decline in output increase. that is what the great been -- that is at the gripping greek side is trying to avoid, additional pain. kit juckes, is there anything the germans will demand of grace that we don't already know? if there areknow more demands. they have to ease up on the demands a little but because of how big the primary surface is an going forward, the greek side
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needs to come with something. frankly, the big problem comes on whether or not we get the deal done this week, next week, can you sell it to the greek government and the greek people, and can it hold together for more than months? that gets increasingly difficult. betty: david, i know kit has mentioned that this can go well, but you mentioned the greek people. we have seen them so weeks dark to take -- we have seen them slowly start to take money out of commercial banks in greece. i wouldn't call it a run because yet,ve not seen that full but i think some of called it a bank job. at what point -- the more it seems to be a mediator -- a mediocre deal. what kind of hand with that forced the ecb to do? david: you are already seen this. we are seeing this pause -- this
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deposit and they are being place with liquidity by the ecb whose emergency liquidity called ela and there is essentially a cap on how much the ecb will give. the greek bank has collateral worth about 93 billion euros and at the present rate of increase at 1.5 billion euros a week, greece can probably go on experiencing this level of deposits to about mid-july before the ecb would be forced to pull the plug or i should say, not increase it anymore. pimm: kit juckes? i think the issue that comes with that is once again a deal, it is not a complete disaster but i am struggling to imagine a rapid flow back the other way of people saying, yes, everything is good, everything is safe, crisis is over i am bringing my money home. pimm: if greece does make all these parent -- if greece does make the payments, it were does the money go?
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does any of it come back to grace? kit: some of it will have to come back to greece at some point. the way these deals work is essentially, i borrow money from you to repay money i already borrowed from you in order to not go bust. -- they are not in a position where they will generate new money that pays down that total sum of debt. it is just a question of being able to roll over debt by barring new money to repay old money on an ongoing basis. that will not change for years. betty: on a final note and getting back to that liquidity assistance that the ecb provides the bank of greece, david, you mentioned that they have about until mid july, what happens there with ecb decides to use that they stick and say, we are not going to allow the bank of greece to do that anymore -- to borrow from the ela? is that the point where we seriously say that greece is going to get kicked out of the euro? david: two points to make, ecb
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could in mid-july not increase the level of ela anymore and the other is if they missed a bond payment, they could actually just shut the liquidity window altogether. if they were to do that, that drastic step of pulling greases access dla altogether, that would be the beginning of the end for grace coos -- and the membership. both i want to thank you very much. david call from bloomberg and thanks to kit juckes. both from london. let's go to julie hyman with breaking news on honda. have sales from honda and this is the latest reporting this money. honda sales up one point 3% in may in the united states. the estimate was for a decline of 4.4%. as i mentioned earlier, across the board we had the automakers beating estimates. look like a strong month for all of them, either sales declining less than estimated at companies or rising more than estimated.
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honda is the latest to report that. up a 1.3% and the estimate was for decline of 4.4%. we have not seen a huge reaction buthe stocks by and large, again, these numbers are better than analysts had been anticipating. weekly checking on honda shares. there is not huge volume in the u.s. trade in shares the right now, they are down by about 1%. betty: betty: thank you so much. still ahead on "bloomberg market day," new details about the smart watch, it it. value that more than $3 million. we will find out more in a moment. ♪
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betty: welcome back. i am betty liu. pimm: i am pimm fox. let's go to julie hyman for look at what is happening in the markets. julie: major averages in the u.s. have been declining but they have been moderating to some degree. the fluctuations happening as investors weigh the negotiations on greece going on in europe, the economic data in the u.s. of a factory orders coming in a little worse than they had been estimated. overall declines, but again, not huge. about one point -- .1%. i went to look at the push and pull we are seen within the s&p 500. take a look at my terminal. essentially mapping the sectors in the s&p 500. in the green today we have things like energy, industrial, consumer discretionary, more cyclical groups. in the red, utilities, health care, the groups that do tend to be a little more defensive. what is weighing on s&p 500
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index individually the most today? was downgraded over bm oh analyst says they are struggling to figure out the value of the cell terror acquisition and apple and biogen also declining. a lot of the bio techs are seeing weakness today. also, utilities are falling today. we are seeing it utilities pull back the most in the s&p 500 at 7% -- 1.7%. rates are going higher. if you look at the year to date versus the 10 year yield, user -- even as they yield has been trending higher, as you can see, in the green, we got the utility stocks going lower. you tend to have higher dividend yields so you see a little bit of a dividend pressure, if you will, when rates go higher and a little bit of dividend competition in a way when yields go higher. -- thank youy so so much. take a look at the top stories crossing the terminal. investigators probably a fatal amtrak crash in philadelphia has
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-- has not ruled out human error according to joseph boardman who is testifying to congress today. thear, note the text in brakes and signals. the accident killed eight passengers and investigators say the train was traveling more than twice the speed limit when it derailed. secretary of state john kerry is in boston to have surgery on his broken leg. he arrived last night from a military flight from syntel and -- from switzerland. he broke his leg in france and he will probably have to limit his travel after surgery. that could complicate efforts to reach an agreement on the nuclear program by the end of the month in iran. smart watcheshe are expected to sort thanks to demand for the new apple watch. the research for ihs says global smart watch shipments will rise to hundred 50%. there are estimates that apple will sell 20 million of its watches in 2015. those are your top stories. 's offering details
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of the anticipated public offering. the company is seeking a valuation of as much as $3.3 billion. they hope to raise as much as $478 million. but with competition from companies such as job owned garment and apple, can fitbit bankers justify that valuation? let's find out. through armstrong joins us with -- drew armstrong joins us with details. what do you think? are they going to get the 20 billion? -- of the going to get 3.3 billion? true: it is a real business and they had hundreds of dollars in profit. they make a product that people by. and a lot of that continue to use it which is sometimes an unusual thing in the tech world. when we talk about valuations, one of their big challenges is that a lot of people get these, many are given as gifts and then they stop using them after a few months. of like thekind
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diet. everyone goes on a diet and after a few months they give up. onside, that is just -- pimm: the diet does not come with a 3.3 million dollars value. betty: but there are diet companies, right? have got a lotey of new users because one third don't continue. drew: they do. i don't know if you all have fitbits or not, but a lot of times they are given as gifts. 50% of company sales came in the fourth quarter meaning that instead of you going out and say, hey, i really want to fitbit, someone is a 90 to spend $100 on a gift for my significant other. i'm going to get them a fitbit, they will say it is need and they will play with it for a while and they tend to drop off. it is an issue because these guys are trying to figure out not only have to sell you fitbit but to get you other services, go to the website, all of those other things that keep generating after a one-time purchase. pimm: who is going to make the
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money from this? softbank? are they selling any shares? dre i actually don't know. i willw check: on that for you right now. what fitbit is looking at right now is going to the corporate wellness market and probably one of the biggest paths. pimm: how would that work? drew: get premiums paid for by the company. you are michael bloomberg and mcknight your health insurance cost and thinking, wouldn't it be great if my employees got up and walked around a little bit more? , no everybody a fitbit suggestions, and you are able to track their data and you could sell that the companies where they are talking about $20,000 for a dashboard and see how active people are. do your employees need to be getting up from their desks more, walking around? eating a salad bar? betty: here's my suggestion -- what about the fitness break and set up a lunch break? you go.ere
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a huge amount of expenses, if you can get that down, that is a big deal for companies. the ipo itself is going to price in a few days. to $16 a share. that $3.3 billion valuation is at the high end and they are expecting to get it right now. pimm: the bankers? drew: i can't remember off the top of my head. pimm: that's all right, we will find out. they probably have a fitbit waiting for you. betty: do you have one? drew: i don't. pimm: you have a competitor. stephen king has been called the king of creeps but he is also the king of cash. 400 million dollars. we will take a look at his career and latest suspense novel been released today. ♪
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"finders keepers" goes on sale today. he has written over 50 novels and sold over 300 million books since his first bestseller "carry" was released in 1974. pimm: the type of opera that publishing houses have relied on. david gore joins us to explain all this. good to see you. what has made stephen king so successful? is so impart that he prolific and go back to his first book in 1970 four, before that, he was a schoolteacher. it became a huge success and the movie followed a couple years later. 50 novels but a ton of short stories and he has gone into nonfiction and written for tb. out, "finders is keepers" a sequel to a wildly successful book that came out last summer "mr. mercedes." he is able to capitalize on his name brand and keeps his name out there. inty: does he excel as much
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his new books as he did with his older ones? david: he made an analogy to and hes that you peek, picked maybe 10 years ago but he is still selling a tremendous amount and "mr. mercedes" sold about 350,000 in hard copy. pimm: that is pretty good. not where he once was selling millions but when you look at how books are selling today, that is a pretty good figure. do we have any idea on whether the electronic book industry has embraced stephen king? is that what people are reading his stuff? david: he tried digital publishing before digital publishing became a thing. he wrote "the green mile" the series of novels that i like. you had to buy them in parts. he has wanted to try new things and i'm not sure as it is because he is interested in economics to keep readers hooked because it keeps his job interesting, but he has embraced it. if you look at the publishing landscape, digital publishing seems to have cooled and
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publishing still important. about $150 billion industry, bigger than movies and music which is astonishing. what the industry is trying to figure out is how to monetize that. people are getting more interested in getting books on kindle and ipads but not making a ton of money. but publishing, surprisingly, $151 billion. authors still make a lot of money, so tell us about -- does it really paid to be and you often these days? david: it's as if you are a big-name author. if you look at these authors who publish one book of the year and have franchises to the name. james patterson makes $90 million a year. betty: 90 million a year. david: yes, almost like antiwar cause factory where he is crafting the plot, crafting who the characters are, outsourcing that to other people writing for him. king ranksre stephen kick, not even in the top five but he is making $70 million a
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year. that is pretty extraordinary. betty: what else sells well? david: what has not been on the market is a good name book, harper lee who wrote "to kill a mockingbird" has a new book coming out, the first in more than 50 years. that is supposed to sell 2 million copies. betty: there are tenfold authors but it is sort of like the book that is under the radar and suddenly, everybody picks it up. the summer and winter, but companies are looking for authors like el james, trying to find the next big-name author like stephen king. pimm: thank you. all about stephen king. betty: i say goodbye here. pimm: goodbye. we have more on "the bloomberg market day." ♪
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final passage is expected later today. the measure would revise terrorist programs that expired at midnight on sunday but it would limit some of them. the bill would end the nsa's ability to collect both phonorecords. investigators would have to get a court order to get records from the phone companies. is federal reserve governor suggesting that she is open to a delay in raising interest rates in a speech in washington this morning. brainard said a recent streak of weak economic pattern is casting doubt on the strength of the economy. >> there is value to watchful waiting. while additional data helped clarify the economy's underlying momentum in the face of headwinds from abroad, is the labor market strengthens further and inflation readings continue to improve, liftoff could come before the end of the year. pimm: now, brainard says the u.s. economy faces a number of headwinds, including a stronger
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u.s. dollar and weakness in the economy's -- the economies of europe and china. mei automobile sales turned out to be better than expected. a 3% salesors posted gain an analyst at forecasted that sales growth would be almost flat. chrysler had the best mei in one decade and the u.s. sales rose 4% last month, beating estimates. the sales of the chrysler 200 sedan have soared. actually fell last month but it was not as much as analysts expected. .hey were down more than 1% meanwhile, nissan sales also felt less unexpected. ae apple watch has punctuality problem. the apps are slow to load. in order to fix that, apple will unveil a new tools for the programmers who write applications for the device. the upgrade will be one of'the many key highlights of apples annual conference in san
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francisco, coming up next week. those are your top stories of the morning. on "the bloomberg market day," it is hillary clinton versus the hedge funds. she has been attacking the industry on the campaign trail, but what do hedge fund managers have to say about hillary clinton? the homeownership appears low on the priority list for millenials according to a new study. we will tell you what they do care about in terms of their money. greece's creditors are trying to work on a new deal. we will talk about the latest and what it means for the markets with the chief investment officer -- and chakra. as u.s. stocks near record highs, goldman sachs asked robert shiller and jeremy siegel whether we have reason to worry about an impending bubble. while yale's schiller believes there is a bubble element in the current climate, or to siegel takes the opposite view, confident that it will continue the run. erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle spoke with him earlier
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this morning in order to find out more. i agreed that the current valuation of the market measured by the standard price-to-earnings ratio is a little bit higher than the historical average, i think a higher p/e ratio is fully justified in a world of record low interest rates. even when the fed raises them, they are going to still remain low on his -- on historical standard. in my estimation and my colleagues at wharton, a lower discount rate means a higher average valuation or the stock market, so i certainly do not believe that it is overvalued at current levels. erik: professor siegel, that is a key point. where do you think funds are going to peak once the federal reserve is that the apex of the tightening cycle? professor siegel: my belief is
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-- and here, one of the rare times when i agree with bill gross, we have disagreed a lot about the stock market over the last five years or six years, but he named the neutral of the fed funds rate at 2% and my on track innovations confirmed that the average fed funds rate is over the-- probably next decade will remain at 2%. that does not meet at the peak of a tightening cycle it will not be above 2%. it might get to 3% or maybe 4%, but it will be brought down below 2% to 1% or .5% when the -- .05% when the economy softens. you will have a lower average level of interest rates. certainly, the fed funds rate may take about 2%, but i don't think it will be the 4% that we know the fed has in the stock pot that it puts out every quarter in the economic production. olivia: in terms of volume, is
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there a number of arranged that does get you concerned? siegel: well, my feeling is that if we get well -- 22, 23, we are definitely now at a rich valuation. in perspective, the stock market got to 30 price-to-earnings ratio in 2000. that was a period of much higher interest rate, so that was a clear overvaluation of the market. 2000 afterbearish in that. those levels were not justified. 18 to 20 asnly see the new normal valuation in the 16 whichther than 15, has been the valuation during most of the post war. part ofldman sachs as the research it did quoted you over the past 17 years and
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looked at a number of different kinds of assets. it came to the conclusion that on a percentile basis, yes, stocks still look overvalued but other things look even more overvalued like 10 year , spreads, volatility, and mortgage basis. would you agree with that? professor siegel: the question is on bonds and yes, interest rates are going to rise. and a little0 year bit of both too i certainly think they can go to three, 3.5 and probably, that is the new normal 10 year. that corresponds, by the way, to about 1.5 points above the fed funds and that has pretty much been a historical term spread. yes, we have -- bonds are much more expensive then stocks, but my feeling is, my calculations say that is the tenure gets to 3.5 and that will impose losses, certainly on the bondholders,
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stocks at that level should be 10ued 18 to 20 at the 3.5% year treasury rate. so, yes, i would say bonds are .ore overvalued then stocks i do think stocks are overvalued. i think stocks are fairly valued given the new reality of lower growth and slower inflation that i think the u.s. economy is going to experience in the last 10 years. wharton professor jeremy siegel with bloombergs on erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. the markets in europe closed for the day a few minutes ago. for the very latest, let's go to constant goals in london. you very much. we have a story woman look at equities and currencies. we start with equities. take a look at what is happening in greece at the athens exchange. it down almost 2.5% and we see positive territory in spain and
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italy. in germany, we are in negative territory. a quick look at some of the movers there. deutsche bank of thomas 1.5%. wasave marched down on 2.5%, timely down 2.5%. let's move over to the bond market, a better sense of what is happening. we clearly see a bit of a risk on scenario. all these yields coming up pretty strong, germany moving the least. we see strong movie -- movement in italy and spain. the story of the euro today, look at the euro go. it was middling along all day and up almost 1.75%. earlier, reports that greece was preparing their proposal and also creditors were preparing their proposal, finishing it up and putting final glasses. you saw the euro really move. this little dip is when the dutch finance minister says they are quite far away from the actual deal, not much progress being made and looks like they could shut that off. it is about one point -- 112 and
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we will do a quick look at the pound, similar story. strength in the pound up almost zero point 82%, almost a full percent on the day. with that, i will send it back to you. pimm: thank you very much. "the bloomberg market day," a war of words between hillary clinton and a billionaire hedge fund manager, next. ♪
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400 people when it overturned in a storm on the yangtze river. rescuecrews were able to several passengers who were trapped inside the ship. in nepal, helicopter charted by doctors without borders has crashed. four people were killed. the helicopter crashed in the mountains in the region that was hit by last month devastating earthquake. the's government and aid agencies have been using helicopters to carry relief materials. you are covered by obamacare, get ready to pay bigger premiums. some health insurers are asking for 10% to 20% rate hikes for policies under the affordable care act. the insurers have said that the medical calls for higher -- costs were higher than expected. those are some of your top stories. it is hillary clinton versus hedge funds. the candidate has been attacking her industry at campaign events, especially how much money they make and how managers are taxed. hillary clinton: i heard a
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statistic the other day that really made a big impact on the. the top 25 hedge fund managers together made more money than all the kindergarten teachers in america. value,u think about the what it is that will get us moving again, i think kindergarten teachers are really important. pimm: those comments not sitting too well at hedge fund titan such as leon cooperman, here he is in an interview with cnn this week. leon cooperman: i don't need what icrapping all over do for a living, especially who hangs out with these people and the very first thing she has to say is criticize hedge funds. i have lived the american dream, i have nothing to apologize for. i have made a lot of money and i'm giving it back to society. pimm: leon cooperman says only thing that upsets and more are the fellow hedge fund managers who support hillary clinton. i will bring in peter cook with more. peter? mm,, this is
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something that should not be too surprising with hillary clinton on the campaign trail. she -- one of the risks is the fact that her close ties to wall street will be an issue for bernie sanders to raise. he already has, as well as martin o'malley, her new challenger, the former governor of maryland. she is talking tough not only about hedge funds but wall street in general, even if that means risking campaign contributions from that very substantial area for her going forward. it is a way to deflect challenges from her left lane and it should not be a total surprise. i would not expect a lot of republicans to be rushing to hedge fund defense, but i would not be surprised if they did. you have the financial community services community for a lot of their campaign cash. pimm: what about around the dinner table inasmuch as hillary clinton's son-in-law mark he runs a hedge fund.
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formally, he was employed by goldman sachs. peter: it will be fascinating to find out if hillary were taking a few on the campaign trail. what she thinks about her son-in-law's chosen profession as he is in the hedge fund business. that will be a difficult balancing act for her to walk right now, given your comments over the last couple of days. it has been more than this one comment. in iowa, she raised russians about what hedge funds managers pay in terms of tax rate and that they could be tax a below lower rate and she has talked about nurses and truck drivers. that has been a challenge in the press that maybe she has some of her numbers wrong. that would be an interesting question for hillary clinton. one of the challenges that she faces is balancing those competing interests. tom: what does she hope accomplish by going after the hedge fund community, peter? inasmuch as it is already been publicly reported the wealth of the clintons and -- the what the
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clintons have amassed. peter: when you look at hillary clinton and where she might be exposed with her current array of challengers, and it will be her left flank. her ties to wall street. it will potentially be the speaking fees she enjoys. she has to insulate herself by one of the ways is talk tough about wall street. talk about the things he would do as president to try and address things like income and equality in this country. pimm: peter, peter, is she still going to cash the checks from hedge fund managers that donate to her campaign that? attendede has already a fundraiser hosted by tom starr, a hedge fund manager. you know, she will be put to the test when it comes time to answer questions. how can you on one side of your mouth talk about the evils, if you will, of the hedge fund industry and what they make, versus the contributions of their giving her campaign? theoes suggest one of
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pimm:pimm: home ownership may no longer be a top economic priority for many americans, at least according to one survey. 28% of americans thought that having enough money to retire was most important. while only 11% felt, ownership was the top indicator of financial success. joining me now for more details
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and someone in the process of purchasing a home, bloombergs on olivia sterns. what do you think question mark olivia: i home search is going swimmingly well. i have been outbid on three apartments here in manhattan. that is not news to anyone, but perhaps what is news is all the survey samples coming out, showing that homeownership is no longer a core component of the american dream. perennials -- millenials, in particular, 42% believed they just don't have any hope that they will ever be able to afford to buy a home. 47% believe they don't have buy a homecredit to and of course, you know, this is the generation that is saddled in student debt. pimm: it is ironic because of you take a look at the home and mortgage back securities debacle of 2007 and 2008 and the subsequent decline on home prices, affordability went way up in 2009.
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olivia: it went up in 2009, yes but if you look overall, wages have not kept up with the appreciation of home prices. home prices are not back to where they were in 2006 -- and they're trying to figure out if they will get back there. a lot of people saying, no, there has been a structural shift and we will not see .illenials create homes it will not go back to the norms of the 1960's and 1970's. other people are more hopeful. pimm: there you have it, the quarterly rate declining over the last five years. olivia: the home ownership rate is at a 20 year low and the rental rate is at a 30 year high and rent prices are going up. some people are hoping millenials will start trying to buy homes but they just don't seem to have sufficiently good credit. until they become more optimistic about the economic future, they will not be convinced to buy homes. as i just explained, the real wealth collection is from owning homes and assets in particular. until they buy homes, there will
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be little reason to celebrate homeownership. pimm: if you have rising cost for rentals, very a point at which people do the calculation and say it is more economically intelligent to buy a home than in this to rent a home based on inflation and to the increase. olivia: that is my cancellation because you can deduct mortgage payments. if i buy a house in manhattan, i can end up saying -- spending less money. if i could only buy one. pimm: we will work on that. we will see you in a moment. time for today's insight and julie hyman. julie: it is indeed, let's take a look at how the major averages are trading. we have been seeing declines slower than they were initially will be got out of the gate at the opening bell this morning. all down about 1/10 of 1% as investors weigh what is going on in greece as well as economic data this week in the united states, meeting with the big drops -- big jobs report at the end of the week. joining me for today's options is senior equity derivatives
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trader at the mo capital and of course, you like everyone else, has been watching the situation in europe. anhave also been watching interesting move in the euro today. han nicholas has been mapping that up in europe. is there optimism here? is optimism, whether it is well-founded is another question. the trend in the euro is downward. it's been today on the back of some hopes that a deal will be struck by this friday. big debt repayments due to the imf this friday. there is no hard evidence that they are getting closer to a deal. i think they have submitted separate proposals for a set of reforms. it is all speculation at this point and the big strength in the euro, again, built on speculation. julie: you have a trade that is a bearish one on the euro because you don't think the strength will last.
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max: i don't think it will not last but it is asymmetric. if a deal is struck, i don't think it creates a huge bid in the stock market or in the euro for that matter. julie: you think there was a bigger downside risk? for exactly, the potential downside is much greater. based on that, i would rather buy option already on the downside of the euro rather than the upside. julie: what trade are you looking in? max: i'm looking at the june 5 weekly which expires this friday. 1.5 foot and you can bite for about $.50 and it is one dollar out of the money. it is a fairly cheap way to get downside exposure on the euro on that chance that a yield does not happen or materialize. itie: or even if it does, does not necessarily mean the euro will go skyrocketing. max: maybe it happens in the euro -- julie: you are hoping. max: better lucky than smart. quickly want to check
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about dollar general. having the best day in nearly three months after it be estimates by three cents in terms of earnings. what are we seeing in terms of options of reaction there? was an expected move. adoptions are employed about a 3.5% move into the event. at one point, it was up 5% but now it is back to the .5%, so it is an in-line loop of what the volatility was pricing. we have seentern historically with dollar general were the option market has been accurate in pricing the one-day earnings move. the average miss is less than 1% around the last eight quarters. the option market gets a rise in this thing. market gets an ride in for the double moves, and i'm not speaking specifically about dollar general, and had to get an edge going going into an earnings report if there is that stability actor? max -- predictability factor? it means you don't.
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generally, you will lose to the bit off when you try to trade these types with a name on a market that accurate. julie: another reminder that the options market is pretty sophisticated and it is good to know what you are doing. max brier, thank you so much for coming in. willing that euro, we check back with you and see what happens on friday. of course, don't go anywhere. much more "bloomberg market day" coming up after the short rake. ♪
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they say they are a long way away. we will get the latest in berlin. the: it is a big month for automobile makers. some are celebrating their best may in years. olivia: time is ticking for apple. -- a watch is taking a new long time to load, can apple fix the problem before it is too late? pimm: good afternoon. i am pimm fox. olivia: and i am olivia sterns. let's look at that market, stocks lower after a three-week low. investors weighing economic data and potential progress in greek debt talks, in particular, the fact that inflation in europe came in better than expected. also, what is showing in the commodity market and see what is moving in oil and gold.
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