john: im john heilmann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect," and with all due respect to roger goodell -- it's not hard. ♪ mark: happy national rocky road day. in our lineup, the florida chatter, the bernie matter and intercept blatter. nevada has voted on it bill that would change its caucuses to a primary. mark, who wins and loses? mark: it's a huge lose for the

establishment, in las vegas and in reno and washington dc. it is a huge loss for the bush but it is a huge win for rand paul. i'm not predicting this, but i think today, rand paul is positioned if he reaches his potential to win the first four states. that is a big deal. you'll be the favorite in this caucus -- he will be the favorite in this caucus. john: i know you are not predicting it, but i would give you some very, very, very big odds that rand paul will not win all four contest. as you know, caucuses are about organization and identifying voters that have not necessarily voted in the past, finding core supporters who are enthused and committed. people who have organizing strength benefit from caucuses and rand paul is one who has that possibility. this makes nevada much easier for him that it would have been a primary system. mark: state had no history.

this is an event that harry reid created to help his party. they do it recently in iowa because they have a tradition. but this event will probably be poorly run, poorly populated in terms of turnout and it's possible other candidates won't even try to plate there -- play there. particularly if rand paul comes into the state. john: you remember the famous nevada caucuses back in 2008 -- one of the more corrupt caucuses or voting exhibitions -- mark: let's call it problematic. john: corrupt, problematic -- but that was because you could pay up the unions to show up for you. and on the republican side, you're going to have a lot of hispanic voters, so it makes for a more complicated game than it does on the democratic side. you have to start organizing nothing today to have a chance of winning -- start organizing that thing today to have a

chance of winning. mark: big win for rand paul, bad for the establishment. today, walt disney world, the happiest governor in florida rick scott, hosting some of the usual republican prospects for president, they all spoke at the economic growth summit and used the stage at the yacht and beach club convention to flex their fiscal muscles. here is the highlight reel. >> we have one of the most convoluted, complex tax code by lowering rates and eliminating as many exemptions as possible. >> i think you guys are going to love this about the fair tax. we would eliminate, i mean literally eliminate the internal revenue service, the biggest bully in america. >> we need to rein in the regulatory environment, whether it's the epa or others, that are like a wet blanket on job creators and innovators out there we need to pull in those , federal regulations. >> is there really a family in

florida tonight, sitting around the table, it are daughter could just get a higher minimum wage, all of our hopes would be realized? that's not what families aspire to. so they can argue about the minimum wage all they want. that's around the edges. we should be talking about growing opportunity for people to have a real career that they feel good about. mark: in this great big republican field, which is as large as space mountain by some estimates, who has the best economic message? john: if this is a multiple-choice test, can i pick none of the above? those are only excerpts but i heard we have to cut taxes rollback regulations and not raise them in wage will stop that sounds like republican economic dogma and doctrine for the past 20 years. we are in a new world now and the republican that comes forward with a new economic agenda, about social mobility

that's the republican i'm , looking for and so far, i'm not hearing it from any of them. mark: i agree. the guys who were here today and not there are hopelessly and sadly behind where they need to be. i think the person with the strongest messages is john kasich. he does have some private sector experience and he well about the new economy and education. jeb bush, who might be the guy put out a video talking about his jobs record in florida. if that's the kind of video they are going to use to change impressions of jeb bush, good luck. it did not seem like a revolutionary thing. mark: marco rubio is another guy that has the opportunity to offer a forward-looking agenda but i have not seen that from him. let's move on to the bernie sanders movement, which is growing, moving down the railroad tracks like a locomotive. bernie went on seth meyers last night and spoke with katie couric yesterday. today, he told andrea mitchell he's an internet sensation.

mark, yesterday we talked about the big crowds each are in iowa, but this is about a hit, about trendiness, how potent is bernie? mark: to use the most ridiculous cliche in political journalism bernie is now a rock star. i don't want to overstate it, because we saw this from howard dean in 2004 -- big crowd logos , young people all excited, but i've got to tell you, this is for the clintons folk a little bit of deja vu all over again because this is what barack obama was like -- he could go on late night and seem cool. you and i talk about being impressed by different sets of bernie sanders skills. he knows why he's cool and he can leverage it. it's a dangerous thing as his momentum continues to grow. john: i'm embarrassed neither one of us protected this would happen a few months ago. this guy has authenticity and he's on the left, and if you

think about the way ron paul was a bit of a rock star with young voters back in 2012, on the left, bernie sanders is stepping into that same niche and he's killing it right now. mark: with the exception of rand paul, there's not any one on the republican side drawing crowds like this or has that new media capacity and late-night tv capacity. so watch bernie chic. latebreaking on capitol hill -- the senate has just passed a new antiterrorism law, or bill rat her, that curtails nsa surveillance in some ways. senate voted, 67-32 to revise key parts of the patriot act, the senate did defeat some amendments supported by mitch mcconnell and now the measure heads to president obama desk for his signature. one last topic -- the dr. evil of the international sports world, sepp blatter, is exiting stage left, literally.

they held the door open for the guy today after he announced he was stepping down from president of fifa. he was not named in the indictments, but many people hoped those arrests would lead to his departure one way or another. abc news reporting he is being investigated by the fbi. john, fifa is filled to the brim with practitioners of the dark arts. how much will his departure change how fifa is run? john: i said the other day that the fish rots from the head down, but there's a chance the fish can grow a new head. this is not going to automatically fix fifa by any means, but there is no doubt with sepp blatter still at the top, real reform is not possible, now real reform is at least possible, especially if the indictments go forward. and if all of fifa gets cleaned up by beretta lynch.

mark: there is no reason this has to be a corrupt organization. the best would be if the new leadership comes in and reviews the decisions made by the past leadership, including where the world cup was awarded. but i think the world needs to rise up and make sure the new better because it was ridiculously corrupt. i have to say if those people who are arrested are successfully prosecuted, it might change the culture because people don't like to go to prison. john: there was a washington dc mayor who once talked about coming into d.c. not with a broom, but a shovel. that's what they are going to have to do is clean up the stables there. it is going to be a big job to clean up fifa. but the indictments were the first step, this is the second step, hope springs internal for soccer fans worldwide. coming up, the former emperor of the empire state and the second-most recent republican to jump into the presidential race, george pataki is here, after the break. ♪

mark: our guest tonight is running for president, which means he will be in iowa, new hampshire, and in our studio. george pataki, thank you for coming back on our show. you're probably read in the wall street journal that populism is the flavor du jour. he noticed there is a lot of agreement on some issues on both sides of the aisle. we are going to show you some video from republicans and democrats talking about some issues, and then we are going to ask for reaction. let's start with lindsey graham and hillary clinton talking about entitlements. senator graham: we depended on social security benefits to survive. as president, i will do what it takes to save the program that once saved my family. we have to fix entitlement programs to make sure people who need the benefits the most receive them. hillary clinton: let us take a deep breath and say, we are

going to have a retirement issues and people who work hard deserve to have enough security when they retire so they can have a good quality of life. i am 100% committed to that. john: you are already shaking your head. i didn't even get a chance to answer the question. governor pataki: that's a pretty radical position, to say they are in favor of keeping social security. they must have taken a number of polls but it is shocking to me. [laughter] i don't think there's going to be anybody in america who says we should not take care of people who have worked hard in their old age and that we have to protect social security. not exactly controversial. john: but the question is how. right? talk a little bit about what you would do. on entitlements in general. governor pataki: on entitlements in general, you have to look at then to make them sustainable. on medicare, i am against high income tax rates, but i'm not

against raising deductibles and co-pays for the people earning $250,000 a year. i think that is perfectly appropriate. on medicaid, i am in favor of what bowles-simpson recommended. letting the states restructure. doing what works best with the state. i think there are solutions out there. john: let's bring mark in there. mark: we want to hear your views but listen to some of the colleagues running for president. this is ted cruz and martin o'malley talking about wall street. senator cruz: my criticism with washington is they engage with crony capitalism. they give favors to wall street and big business. that's why i have been an outspoken opponent of crony capitalism, taking on leaders of both parties. martin o'malley": recently the ceo of goldman sachs led his employees know he would be just fine with either bush or clinton. i bet he would. i've got news for the boys of -- the bullies of wall street

the presidency is not a crowd to -- a crown to be passed back-and-forth by you between two royal families. mark: you were the governor of new york where wall street is a big deal. what is your view of the proper role for wall street in our economy and whether there are any excesses there that you would like to see restraint. governor pataki: there are tremendous excesses there and everywhere. our government has created a tax code that is incomprehensible. just two things i would do -- i would have a lifetime ban on any former member of congress ever serving as a lobbyist in washington d c. i don't want goldman sachs or the teachers union hiring my senator when they retire or lose and peddling their influence instead of looking to help the people that sent them to washington. mark: specifically on wall street, what do you think of the role wall street plays in our economy and politics today? governor pataki: i think it has

far too great an impact on washington and our tax code. i would throw out the entire tax code that lobbyists have written. i think it's 74,600 pages of special interests protecting gobbledygook. throw it out, get rid of the loopholes, those special breaks, , tax credits whether they are for wall street or some other organization, lower the rates, simplify the code, get rid of former legislators lobbying, not just being against crony capitalism, everybody is, but actually doing something about it. john: you have a bunch of issue positions that make you somewhat unique in the republican field. particularly on social issues and domestic issues. i want to talk about guns for a second. you signed a sweeping gun-control bill in this state. we just saw some statistics that gun violence is rising worryingly here in new york city. the nra did not like the bill you signed, the nra still has a

lot of power in your party. how are you going to talk about guns as you go out on the campaign trail? governor pataki: i always believe states are the laboratory of democracy. what we were doing at the state level, i believe we had under the second amendment, authority to do. i don't think they should change the gun laws in washington at all. they should do two things -- one is in force the existing laws better. -- enforce the existing laws better. the criminals running them from the south do that constantly. and mental health. the horrible incidents are people who are mentally ill and have not gotten treatment. john: you know it is the case, that the nra does not see it that way. are you worried about their influence and what they are going to say about you? governor pataki: i worry about what i believe. people are going to support you , people are not going to support you, you do your best. john: do you believe a woman's right to an abortion is a constitutional right? governor pataki: it is right now

because of roe v wade -- john: should it continue to be? in your view? governor pataki: we should not be trying to pass a constitutional amendment in washington. what we should be doing is following roe versus wade and there are extents where the state wants to agree with restrictions. there is no reason why new york and texas should have the same laws. john: you have been a big advocate of gay rights. i know you think gay marriage is a state issue, but you are for it? governor pataki: personally, i'm not for it, but i do believe it if state choose to have it, that is their prerogative. that is the way our government should work. john: governor george pataki thank you. when we come back, bad news for hillary clinton. our brand-new poll wizard breaks it down. ♪

john: joining us now is a new contributor and bloomberg analyst on politics. he's an expert on political advertising and pulling. ken goldstein, some big new polls out today. let's start with hillary clinton. her support has dropped nine points and another by abc, her favorability rating has dropped. you can see her losing strength and her support on issues about whether voters find are honest and trustworthy and whether she cares about people like them. ken, my question for you, among these numbers, which one should most worried clinton campaign? ken: i think the number they are focusing on the most, is cares about people like me. you would always rather have your favorable number higher than lower. her numbers have been going down since her position as secretary of state. you always want to be thought of as honest and trustworthy, but with the clintons in general there's some honest or trustworthy or lacked of honest and trustworthy.

they've always made their living caring about people like me, so they are probably focused on that number and if that goes down, that is what will worry them the most. john: is that a problem in the nominating contest or general election context? ken: it is more towards the general election context. you had a good discussion of bernie sanders as a rock star but there's not a real high , likelihood she's not going to be the democratic nominee. things may evolve over the next couple of months, but i'm looking at these numbers and i bet people in brooklyn are looking at these numbers as general election concerns. john: let's look at jeb bush -- in that abc washington post poll, support among republicans fell 11 point since march. at the same time, when pollsters ask general election voters how they like him against hillary clinton, he is closing the gap from 12 points couple of months ago to within the margin of error. what does this tell us about the

strengths and weaknesses of jeb bush's strategy? ken: when your kids are in kindergarten, they have opposite day. it is like jeb bush's problem is the exact opposite of hillary clinton's. looks like he's going to have a lot of trouble getting out of his primary. he's gone down, his favorability numbers among republicans have gone down, but in the general election, he's actually looking pretty good. his general favorability numbers, even as we talk about hillary declining, his numbers are lower than that. yet he has closed the gap in the general election contest. it is interesting -- republicans will come home to the eventual nominee, and when you ask these horserace questions they are coming home. the question is can jeb bush even get to that point? john: i want to ask you about latest des moines iowa poll. we look at the top issues and republicans said things they

cared about our economic issues like the budget deficit, also national security. social issues did not rank high. if these issue preferences hold up, which republican presidential candidate could benefit the most? ken: if they hold up and we believe that is that people who attend the caucus believe, it's going to help a more establishment candidate like jeb bush. i am a big fan of your iowa poll, and that is the poll i would be paying attention to now even more than these national polls. that said, at the end of the day, we've been around a lot and i think we first met at iowa caucuses many years ago. the folks who show up on a cold february might tend to be those very hard social conservatives. mark: also from our iowa poll the top two issues republicans , and democrats care about our job creation and immigration. same question -- if those two

issues are big, who does it benefit? ken: it's interesting -- on immigration, one side cares about it because they want reform and the other side cares about it because they don't want reform. that is one where jeb bush just wants that to go away. mark: ken goldstein, we are happy to welcome you here and glad to say you will be with us throughout this year and next year as we cover the polling and a bunch of other stuff, that you are amongst the best in the business. thank you. john: you are a welcome addition to our team. thanks for doing this today and we will be right back. ♪

john: another of big day in politics tomorrow -- lincoln chafee announces his candidacy for the democratic nomination, and then thursday, rick perry is expected to announce he will be the republican nominee. john two more entrants. ,john: they just keep on coming, mark. lincoln chafee, a former owner and senator, who thinks has no chance of being any competition to hillary, but may the sharpest thorn in her side. he is a formidable candidate if he is on his game, but we didn't see much of his best game last time around. mark: a scouting report of lincoln chafee will be on bloomberg politics.com tomorrow. and we will have live coverage right after "all due respect" tomorrow. and then on thursday, rick perry's announcement.

john: we are only on the television a half hour a day. until tomorrow, sayonara, folks. ♪

emily: pinterest the purchasing -- unlocks the purchasing power of its pinners, what it means for middlemen like google and amazon. ♪ emily: i am emily chang, welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg west." i am coming to you live from las vegas. hewlett-packard is hosting its annual discover conference. later in the program, all the orange light -- i will be joined by hp ceco meg whitman. you can catch that interview tomorrow.