john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect," and with all due respect to roger goodell -- it's not hard. see? ♪ mark: happy national rocky road day. in our lineup, the florida chatter, the bernie matter and intercept blatter. but first, a primary caucus. nevada chooses the latter. nevada has voted on it bill that would change its caucuses to a primary. who wins and loses?

mark: it's a huge lose for the establishment in las vegas and in reno and washington dc. it is a huge loss for jeb bush. it's a huge win for rand paul. i'm not predicting this, but i think today, rand paul is positioned if he reaches his potential to win the first four states. that is a big deal. he will dominate caucuses if he reaches his potential. john: i know you are not predicting it, but i would give you some very, very, very big odds that rand paul will not win the first four contest. as you know, caucuses are about organization and identifying voters that have not necessarily voted in the past, finding core supporters who are enthused and committed. people who have organizing strength benefit from caucuses

and rand paul is one who has that possibility. this makes nevada much easier for him that i would have been a primary system. mark: he benefits particularly because this is an event that harry reid created to help his party. they do it recently in iowa because i have a tradition, but this event will probably be poorly run, poorly populated in terms of turnout and it's possible other candidates won't even try to play their particularly if rand paul comes into the state. john: you remember the famous nevada caucuses back in 2008 -- one of the more corrupt caucuses. mark: let's call it problematic. john: corrupt, problematic -- you could pay up the unions to show up for you and on the republican side, you're going to have a lot of hispanic voters, so it makes for a more

complicated game than it does on the democratic side. that puts rand paul in a decent position. mark: he will compete there vigorously. today, walt disney world, the happiest governor in florida rick scott, hosting some of the usual republican prospects for president, they all spoke at the economic growth summit and used the stage at the yacht and beach club convention to flex their fiscal muscles. >> we have to fix one of the most convoluted tax codes by elimnating as many tax exemptions as possible. >> the great thing about the fair tax, and i think you're going to love this -- we would literally eliminate the internal revenue service, the biggest only in america. >> we need to rein in the regulatory environment, whether it's the epa or others, that are like a wet blanket on job creators and others out there, we need to pull in those federal regulations. >> is there really a family in florida tonight saying if our daughter could just get a

higher minimum wage, all of our hopes would be realized? that's not what families aspire to. so they can argue about the minimum wage all they want. that's around the edges. we should be talking about growing opportunity for people to have a real career that they feel good about. mark: in this great big republican field, which is as large as to an, who has the -- as large as space mountain by some estimates, who has the best economic message? john: if this is a multiple-choice test, can i pick none of the above question mark those were only excerpts, but i heard we have to cut taxes, rollback regulations and not raise them in wage will stop that sounds like republican economic dogma and doctrine for the past 20 years. we are in a new world now and the republican that comes

forward with a new economic agenda, that's the republican i'm looking for and so far, i'm not hearing it from any of them. mark: i agree. i think the person with the strongest messages john kasich. he does have some private sector experience and he well about the new economy and education. jeb bush, who might be the guy put out a video talking about his jobs record in florida. if that's the kind of video they are going to use to change impressions of jeb bush, good luck. it did not seem like a revolutionary thing. mark: marco rubio is another guy that has the opportunity to offer a forward-looking agenda but i have not seen that from him. let's move on to the bernie sanders movement, which is growing, moving down the railroad tracks like a locomotive. he went on seth meyers last night and spoke with katie

couric today. today, he told andrea mitchell he's an internet sensation. john: we talked about the big crowds each are in iowa, but this is about a hit, about trendiness, how potent is bernie? mark: to use the most ridiculous cliche, bernie is now a rock star. we saw a version of this with howard dean in 2004 -- big crowd too, young people all excited, but i've got to tell you, this is for the clintons folk a little bit of deja vu all over again because this is what barack obama was like -- he could go on late night and seem cool. you and i talk about being impressed by different sets of bernie sanders skills. he knows why he's cool and he can leverage it. it's a dangerous thing as his momentum continues to grow. john: i'm embarrassed neither one of us protected this would happen a few months ago. this guy has authenticity and he's on the left, and if you think about the way ron paul was a bit of a rock star with young voters back in 2012, on the left, bernie sanders is stepping into that same niche and he's killing it right now. mark: with the exception of rand paul, there's not any one on the republican side drawing crowds like this or has that new media capacity and late-night tv capacity. so watch bernie chic. latebreaking on capitol hill --

the senate has just passed a new antiterrorism law that curtails nsa surveillance in some ways. it revives key parts of the patriot act, the senate did defeat some amendments supported by mitch mcconnell and now the measure heads to president obama desk for his signature. one last topic -- the dr. evil of the international sports

world, sepp blatter, is exiting stage left, literally. they held the door open for the guy today after he announced he was stepping down as president of fifa. he was not named in the indictments, but many people hoped those arrests would lead to his departure one way or another. abc news reporting he is being investigated by the fbi. fifa is filled to the brim with practitioners of the dark arts. how much will his departure change how fifa is run. john: the fish rots from the head down, but there's a chance the fish can grow a new head. this is not going to fix fifa by any means, but with sepp blatter still at the top, real reform is not possible, now real reform is at least possible, especially if the indictments go forward. mark: there is no reason this has to be a corrupt organization. the best would be if the new leadership comes in and reviews the decisions made by the past leadership, including where the world cup was awarded.

but i think the world needs to rise up and make sure the new leadership is utter, because it was ridiculously corrupt. if those people who are arrested are successfully prosecuted, it might change the culture because people don't like to go to prison. john: there was a washington dc mayor who talked about coming into washington, d.c. was not a broom, but a shovel. that's what they are going to have to do is clean up the stables there. it's going to be a big job, but the indictments were the first step, this is the second step, hope springs internal for soccer fans worldwide. coming up, the former emperor of the empire state and the second-most recent republican to jump into the presidential race, george pataki is here, after the break. ♪

mark: our guest tonight is running for president, which means he will be in iowa, new hampshire, and in our studio. george pataki, thank you for coming on our show. you've probably read that populism is the flavor du jour. there is a lot of agreement on some issues on both sides of the aisle. we are going to show you some video from republicans and democrats and then we are going to ask for reaction. let's start with lindsey graham and hillary clinton talking about entitlements. senator graham: we depended on social security benefits to survive. as president, i will do what it takes to save the program that once saved my family. we have to fix entitlement programs to make sure people who need the benefits the most receive them. hillary: let's take a break and

say we are going to have a retirement issue and people who work hard deserve to have enough security when they retire so they can have a good quality of life. i am 100% committed to that. john: you are already shaking your head. governor pataki: that's a pretty radical position, to say they are in favor of keeping social security. i don't think there's going to be anybody in america who says we should not take care of people who have worked hard in

their old age and that we have to protect social security. not exactly controversial. john: but the question is how. talk a little bit about what you would do. on entitlements in general. governor pataki: on entitlements in general, you have to look at them and make sure they are sustainable. on medicare, i'm not against raising deductibles and co-pays for the people earning $250,000 a year. on medicaid, i am in favor of what bowles-simpson recommended. mark: we want to hear your views but listen to some of the colleagues running for president. this is ted cruz and martin o'malley talking about wall street. senator cruz: my criticism with washington as they engage with crony capitalism. they give favors to wall street and big business. that's why i have been an outspoken opponent. >> recently, the ceo of goldman sachs led his employees know he would be just fine with either bush or clinton. i bet he would. i've got news for the boys of

-- the bullies of wall street -- the presidency is not a crowd to be passed back-and-forth by you between two royal family's. mark: you were the governor of new york where wall street is a big deal. what is your view of the proper role for wall street in our economy and whether there are any excesses there that you would like to see restraint. governor pataki: there are tremendous excesses there and it's ours with the lobbying power in washington that has dramatically created a tax code that is incomprehensible. just two things i would do -- i would have a lifetime ban on any former member of congress serving as a lobbyist in washington summit d.c. i don't want goldman sachs or the teachers union hiring my senator when they retire or lose and peddling their influence instead of looking to help the people that sent them to washington. mark: specifically on wall street, what do you think of

the role wall street plays in our economy and politics today? governor pataki: i think it has far too great and impact on our tax code. i would throw out the entire tax code that lobbyists have written. i think it's 74,600 pages of special interests protecting gobbledygook. throw it out, get rid of the loopholes, those special breaks, whether they are for wall street or some other organization, lower the rates, simplify the code, get rid of former legislators lobbying, not just being against crony capitalism. john: you have a bunch of issue positions that make you somewhat unique in the republican field. i want to talk about guns for a second. you signed a sweeping gun-control bill in this state.

we just saw some statistics that gun violence is rising worryingly here in new york city. the nra did not like the bill you signed, the nra still has a lot of power in your party. how are you going to talk about guns as you go out on the campaign trail? governor pataki: i always believe states are the laboratory of democracy. i believe we were doing what we had the authority to do, but at the federal level, it is totally different. i don't think they should change the gun laws in washington at all. they should do two things -- -- one is enforce the existing laws better. the criminals running them from the south do that constantly. and mental health. the horrible incidents are people who are mentally ill and have not gotten treatment. john: you make the distinction but the nra does not see it that way. are you worried about their influence and what they are going to say about you? governor pataki: i worry about what i believe. people are going to support you are not. you do your best.

john: do you believe a woman's right to an abortion is a constitutional right? governor pataki: it is right now because of roe v wade -- john: should it continue to be? governor pataki: we should not be trying to pass a constitutional amendment in washington. we should be following roe versus wade and there's no reason new york and texas should have the same laws. john: you have been a big advocate of gay rights. i know you think gay marriage is a state issue, but you are for it? governor pataki: personally, i'm not for it, but if state choose to have it, that is their prerogative. that is the way the constitution works. that is the way our government should work. john: governor george pataki thank you. when we come back, bad news for hillary clinton. our brand-new poll that we are going to break down. ♪

john: joining us now is a new

contributor and bloomberg analyst on politics. he is a professor at the university of san francisco. he's an expert on political advertising and pulling. -- and polling. some big new polls out today. let's start with hillary clinton. her point lead has dropped nine points and another by abc, her favorability has dropped -- you can see her losing strength and her support on issues about whether voters find are honest and trustworthy and whether she cares about people like them. among these numbers, which one should most worry the clinton campaign? ken: i think the one they are focusing on most is cares about people like me. you would always rather have your favorable number higher than lower. you always want to be thought of as honest and trustworthy but with the clintons in general, there's some honest or trustworthy or lacked of honest and trustworthy. they've always made their living caring about people like me, so they are probably focused on that number and if that goes down, that is what will worry them the most.

john: is that a problem in the nominating contest or general election contest? ken: you had a good discussion of bernie sanders as a rock star but there's not a real high likelihood she's not going to be the democratic nominee. things may evolve over the next couple of months, but i'm looking at these numbers and i bet people in brooklyn are looking at these numbers as general election concerns. john: let's look at jeb bush -- support among republicans fell 11 point since march. at the same time, when pollsters ask general election voters how they like him against hillary clinton, he is closing the gap from 12 points couple of months ago to within the margin of error. what does this tell us about the strengths and weaknesses of

jeb bush's strategy? ken: when your kids are in kindergarten, they have opposite day. his problem is the exact opposite of hillary clinton. looks like he's going to have a lot of trouble getting out of his primary. he's gone down, his favorability numbers among republicans have gone down, but in the general election, he's actually looking pretty good. his general favorability numbers, as we talk about hillary declining, his numbers are lower than that. yet he has closed the gap in the general election contest. republicans will come home to the eventual nominee and when you ask these horse race lessons, they are coming home. the question is can jeb bush even get to that point?

john: i want to ask you about the iowa poll. we look at the top issues and republicans said things they cared about like the budget deficit, also national security. social issues did not rank high. if these issue preferences hold up, which republican presidential candidate could benefit the most? ken: if they hold up and we believe that is that people who go in a the caucus believe it's going to help a more establishment candidate like jeb bush. i am a big fan of your iowa poll, and that is the poll i would be paying attention to now even more than these national polls. that said, at the end of the day, we've been around a lot and i think we first met at iowa caucuses many years ago. the folks who show up on a cold february night tend to be does very hard social conservatives. mark: the top two issues republicans and democrats care about our job creation and immigration. if those two issues are big, who does it benefit?

ken: it's interesting -- on immigration, one side cares about it because they want reform and the other side cares about it because they don't want reform. that is one where jeb bush just wants that to go away. mark: we are happy to welcome you here and delighted to say you will be with us throughout this year and next year as we cover the pulling and a bunch of other stuff, that you are amongst the best in the business. thank you. john: you are a welcome addition to our team. thanks for doing this today and we will be right back. ♪

john: another of big day in politics tomorrow -- lincoln chafee announces his candidacy and then rick perry is expected to announce he will be the republican nominee. two more entrants. john: they just keep coming -- lincoln chafee, a former owner and senator them anything cap no chance of being any competition to hillary, but may the sharpest thorn in her side. and rick perry, who is looking for free gumption after 2012. he is a formidable candidate if he is on his game, but we didn't see much of his best game last time around. mark: a scouting report of lincoln chafee will be on bloomberg tomorrow and we will have live coverage right after "all due respect" tomorrow. you will see lincoln chafee's announcement and then on

thursday, rick perry's announcement. john: we are only on the television 30 minutes a day. we are live 24-7 on bloomberg politics.com.

>> pinterest unlocks. what it means for sites like google and the amazon. ♪ emily: i am emily chang welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg west." i am coming to you live from las vegas. hewlett-packard is hosting its annual discover conference. later in the program, all the -- i will be joined by hp ceco meg whitman. you can catch that interview tomorrow. also, coming up it