and vladimir putin have announced they will host a call within the next two hours. it is jobs day, and christine lagarde tells yellin -- and it gets worse, chinese hackers have 4 million americans' personal information. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from new york. it is friday, jobs day, june 5. i'm tom keene, with brendan greeley and vonnie quinn. white is supposed want to talk to prudent? brendan: is he showing europe, look, i can talk to him, he has money, i have other options. this has been the game theory for the past four months, that alexis tsipras once europe to know i have auctions -- i have options. tom: you and i heard this eight weeks ago come and here it is today. brendan: because they are pushing off the possibility of

making all four payments to the imf this month at once at the end of the month. we are at the point when you were negotiating with a mob boss, when you say, please just give me a month. i have got it. i've got it. hello, viewers, i did not say it. tom: greece is like fifa. let's get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: a very serious may jobs report in 2.5 hours from now. economists predict the economy created 26 thousand jobs last month. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.4%. the big question is whether the labor market is strong enough for the fed to raise interest rates in the next few months. imf director christine lagarde weighed in on that yesterday. christine lagarde: we think there is a place for waiting to raise rates until there are more tangible signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident.

so in other words, we believe that a rate hike would be better off in early 2016. vonnie: later today we will hear from new york fed president will dudley. hackers from china are being blamed for a massive data breach. they broke into office of personnel management community -- personal management computers and stole records of federal employees. alexis tsipras has raised the stakes. he has decided to spur the payment that was used to the imf today. instead, he will bungle them and make them at the end of the month. no country has done that and more than three decades. meanwhile, he had a phone call with angela merkel and francois hollande can projected -- and rejected demands -- today he

will have a phone call with russian president vladimir putin. greek officials say they have cooperation in business and energy. goldman sachs may be the next bank to pay billions for a government investigation. goldman is in talks to pay $3 billion. an agreement may happen within weeks. the government has been pushing to hold more firms accountable for the 2008 financial crisis. in the nba finals cleveland's lebron james scored 44 points but it was not enough in game one. golden state beat the cavaliers in overtime. the cavaliers may have lost their second best player, kyrie irving -- who limped off the floor. brendan: it is shakespearean. tom: it is great. between the nba and hockey. brendan: yes, hockey is

evidently also happening. tom: soccer continues with all the fifa stuff, right? fifa has decided to get sensitive and focus on women's soccer as well. let's do a data check. this on jobs day, always important. it has been an amazing 48 hours of business news. futures at negative two, the euro 1.1262. a major story this week that we barely talked of his oil pulls back. 60.61, down to 57.57. showing a little bit of equity tension. can brent get through 60? that will be a big deal. and not quite the german angst as we saw 0.99, i believe it was a day ago.

we are going to talk this morning much of this news flow to the mac monitor. this is a little bit of overshoot, undershoot. the lecture devolves down to janet, would you overshoot on inflation? here is 2%. that is sort of a squishy, we want to be around there, number. we are undershooting now. christine lagarde says, tom, be brave, wait until we get back up here. brendan: when you are talking but overshooting and undershooting about christine lagarde, it is about politics. it is about making the moves you can feel you can get away with and you can justify to your own congress. tom: politicians love to shoot up -- love to talk about overshooting. this is the actual 2001 paper from rogue off -- from rogoff on

a classic paper about game changing. this is a fancy graduate-level chart, not overshooting. christine lagarde talks overshoot rogoff talks undershoot. brendan: he is gone, he is off. tom: we will talk with richard clarida joining us in the next hour, giving us his expertise on christine lagarde and jalan yellin -- and janet yellen. all important, but heightened because of christine lagarde and janet yellen. peter cook -- what he is really focused on is the jobs report today. peter, what do we look for? peter: we look for janet yellen and christine lagarde to be talking about the u.s. economy.

they may not be on the same page. it could happen. they were up on stage together a short time ago, a couple days ago. it is an interesting moment. the jobs report is always important, but this one perhaps even more so because it could verify whether or not the slowdown we saw in the first quarter is hanging with us here in the u.s., or whether just maybe we are starting to rebound. the 2026 -- the 2000 2600 jobs -- the 2600 jobs would show that things are back on track and the jobs hold. tom: what if we get a 250,000, 260,000? brendan: you mean what is it if we get exactly what everyone is predicting? peter, what is the number that is high enough that people on the hill notice and start issuing press releases one way or the other? peter: they have already written

the press releases. they have written one if it is bad and one if it is good, and they just hit send depending on what the number is. it will reassure a lot of democrats that the economy is still moving forward. anything below that, you will have republicans, particularly on the presidential campaign trail -- we heard this even yesterday, rick perry in texas raising questions about why this recovery is not gaining more momentum. tom: peter, thank you so much. mr. cook, full coverage at a: 30 from the bureau of labour's -- 8:30 from the bureau of labor statistics. is it an unequal or inpeople economy. john taft is the chief executive officer at rbc capital markets p is uniquely qualified with his customers to understand the pulse that is out there this morning. we will speak of fiduciary responsibility later in the

hour. you are an expert on that. what are you hearing from rbc revenue producers as they speak to customers? is it a bader -- is it a better labor economy echo john? john: i always ask advisers to tell -- what i hear now is rate anticipation anxiety syndrome. it is the number one concern on the part of retail investment. tom: does your second oldest have that? brendan: it is a low-grade fever, but you do not really worry until it hits 104. john: that is what everybody is waiting for. the second concern is worry about valuations. when is the correction going to come? they are near-term cautious, long-term worse. tom: vonnie quinn, i have not

seen this photo in a new million years. "please see cashier." there it is. there is the economy again. brendan: we will know there is something significant when it says pays better than minimum wage. vonnie: and that is one of the things we will be watching, that the wage indicator will finally show some signs of life. john -- oh, brendan, you have something for us. brendan: i think we have to on. our twitter question of the day goes to exactly that. when will wages finally lift off ? we see jobs increasing, but we're looking at the median wage number, wondering when it will budge. and the u.s. a government -- and the u.s. government is hit with another hack. it continues. we are going to go figure out who is behind it or you can probably guess. tom: this is a big deal. brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance ♪."

♪ ." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." futures at negative five. our top headlines -- here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: germany's central bank is raising its outlook for germany's economy. the prettiest gdp growth of 1.7% this year. the jobless rate is 6.4%, the lowest since german reunification 25 years ago. there is a big roadblock before apple unveils its new music streaming service. it is still negotiating with record labels over terms. the labels are pushing for larger shares of revenues.

at the french open, serena williams shakes off the effects of the flu to win the semifinals match, defeating her opponent six-six -- 6-6 6-3, 6-0. tom: all of a sudden endurance is becoming very cool. the career is becoming really something all of a sudden. and nadal lost. we talked about the other day. an amazing "bloomberg surveillance" yesterday. more in this hour. we will talk jobs with carl joining us from bloomberg intelligence. we will also talk -- this is really interesting, i will not give it away -- the world's worst economy is not greece. and we will speak with john tab of rb's -- john taft of rbc

about financial responsibility. brendan: someone has stolen personal records of 4 million federal employees. let's put that in perspective. there are only 4.2 million in total. peter cook has been on this since yesterday. half hour ago bloomberg news broke that this is linked to health records being stolen from anthem health care earlier this year. peter: what we know at this point is that according to a private -- private cyber security firms, they have been able to link this breach with the anthem breach and another breach from another blue cross company in spokane, washington, from back in march. that is because they look at the digital fingerprint and they see similarities, and that is why they have been able to reach this conclusion with a high degree of probability.

separately, what we know as you said, 4 million federal employees, including people who have been getting clearances or are in line to get security clearances. that is perhaps the biggest concern from the federal government that people were targeted and their personal records were targeted in this way. people who may be in sensitive positions. tom: what are the personal records? it is not like birthdates they are worried about, right? brendan: you have to say a lot of things that are very personal when you get your security clearance, and that leads us back to the likely possibility we think, that this was coming from china. how do we know that? peter: again, according to people familiar with the investigation, they believe that this does have ties back to chinese hackers who have targeted the united states in the past, perhaps tied directly to civilian intelligence the

civilian intelligence agency in china. the chinese are pushing back but this is going to be the hard part going forward, trying to figure out specifically if this is state-sponsored or those acting private individuals in china perhaps acting on their own behalf or somebody else's. that will be hard to prove and certainly hard to convince the chinese. brendan: take this to its logical conclusion. someone in china has the personal records of someone who said something who was given at security clearance. what might they learn? peter: what they might learn is things that that person had to disclose to the federal government about things from their past, things that might be issues going forward in terms of their federal employment, getting that security clearance. if they disclose it to the government, they might be able to advance if it is something from their past. separately, but then it could be

used against them. the fear is extortion of some sort by a government, by a foreign government. that is the worry here, that somehow this information could be in the hands of people who might use it to their advantage pressing for, again u.s. secrets, commercial secrets. brendan: china has called these accusations groundless. it is difficult to say where these attacks are coming from. peter cook, thanks for covering everything from washington, d.c. tom: is this the biggest deal you have seen? brendan: it is a huge deal. we have to draw the distinction between cyber war and cyber espionage. this is cyber espionage, and is a huge deal. tom: in our next hour, we are going to bring you richard clarida of columbia university. now the global strategist at pimco.

what it means for you. this has direct ramifications on each american. should the fed wait until 2016? it is jobs day. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: built in another time, the grease of 1843 -- the greece of 1843. parliament in place. greece to hold -- to withhold payment of many millions of euros to the imf. we will have much more out of greece. let's go to our morning

must-read. brendan greeley gets us started. brendan: we went to philip stephens, who wrote a piece about "greece should not refuse, resolve a direction count." if the greek government was breaking up -- we have elliott gotkine in athens right now. let's go to him. elliott the ft had a cartoon this morning that was basically tsipras about to fall off the edge of the euro. is that what it looks like from where you are in athens? elliott: it is not over until it is over, brendan. greeks -- within the imf rules

it is a default, but it is a deviation from normal track. of course you have to wonder why greece decided to do that when it had the money to make that $339 million payment to the imf. was it buying time, was it brinkmanship, or was it the game is going to be up and we are going to default. brendan: reading the dueling press conferences yesterday, i got the sense we had not moved on since the first negotiation which is that we are still trying to figure out whose proposal is the basis for further negotiations? is that the right read? elliottl: there is quite some way to go before agreement. alexis tsipras had a conversation over the phone with angela merkel and francois hollande, that what was on the table was not even the basis for discussion. the lines essentially are

increases in energy and the like. those of the kind of points that greece is demanding. tom: the game has changed. vladimir putin has gotten -- has decided to have a meeting with suppress -- with alexis tsipras of greece. why is the leader of russia speaking to the leader of greece? elliott: alexis tsipras' party has its roots in the communist party. i suppose you could argue that perhaps they have common ground in that respect, and prudent is perhaps respect -- and prudent's respect for the way -- and vladimir putin's respect for the way to vote. it is not heard for alexis up as to suggest that perhaps there is another option and potentially take money from russia. grace -- greece is also a nato member, and there is the

potential for resolution for its creditors. brendan: elliott gotkine in athens. tom, it seems like what we are trying to figure out now is how much leeway alexis tsipras has at home in athens. does he have to say these things? tom: i have greece exhaustion going into the weekend. brendan: you may not be interested in greece, but greece is interested in you. tom: drew matus is with us and richard clarida as we look at this jobs day. ♪

little weaker off the news flow out of greece. let's get to top headlines of

vonnie quinn. vonnie: a few hours from now, we will find out if the labor market cap up its momentum, with -- kept up its momentum. it is predicted employers added 226,000 workers last month. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.4%. the big question is if the market is strong enough for the fed to raise interest rates. christine lagarde urged the fed to hold off until next year and federal authorities say they are familiar with chinese hackers blamed for stealing the records of millions of government employees. they say they are the same cyber crooks who stole personal information from health care companies. one of the targets, workers who apply for security clearance is pure it opec ministers -- opec ministers meeting in vienna -- no matter what they do, the outcome is certain to be more oil. saudi arabia is already pumping the most food in free decades --

the most crude in free decades. opec's secretary-general says the cartel will be open minded especially when it comes to iran. >> you know, under sanctions for so many years, of course we will listen to them. vonnie: if the u.s. reaches agreement iran would be able to sell more oil. you have heard of craft beers, now pepsico wants you to drink craft sodas. drinks that will use real sugar rather than the corn syrup used in pepsi and coke. the flavors include black cherry with tarragon and orange hibiscus. advertisers may be the real winners. nbc -- now sponsors are poised

to benefit from ratings bumps. tom: the big deal is getting from new york to belmont. vonnie: they say they have improved in massively this year. tom: at now it is better. brendan: i am just going to ride my bike. tom: it will be very exciting. where is wage inflation? that is one part of this morning's jobs report. peter cook will have that at 8:30 on bloomberg television. there are two sharply divided camps, how to measure wages and benefits and what it will mean for the fed debate. carl what will you look for? is it wages? >> it is not wages yet. we should not look for wage pressures until later this year. it is a different kind of jobs report, because even though june is technically in place for the fed, we know it is not in place.

we are looking at the second half of the year. that means the usual hurdles. we look at the diffusion of job gains tom: excuse me, you have to be an aerospace guy. karl: take the total number of workers times hours worked times average hourly will -- hourly earnings, then income needs to accelerate to 5% year on year. it was 5% in q4 and q1 and it has slowed down a little bit. that is consistent with the sluggish pace in the economy. we need to re-accelerate if consumers carry the economy into the back half of the year thereby satisfying janet yellen for a september liftoff. brendan: we will let you know on a day by day basis. yesterday i went to the institute of international

finance, and the -- and in a q1 was not just about the weather. >> while there has been a modest right up of expectations in q2 and q3 over what many of these people have in december, it is substantially less than last year which conforms to my intuition that this is not a repeat of last year, where it was pretty easily identifiable. transitory factors, which had in fact artificially restrained activity, would bounce back in q2 and q3. brendan: q1 seasonality -- is it just a bedtime story we are telling ourselves? carl: daniel tarullo rarely talked about the economic outlook. he is at the center of a committee as well, so that is important. the distinction he is drawing is

very important. last year 2014 q1, it was polar vortex after polar vortex from january through march. this year, half of february was lousy, but there is a very different story. it was the collapse of energy crisis, the westport shut down. it is a different cause of the weakness in q1, and therefore you should expect a different type of rebound, a much shallower rebound. tom: let's look at wage inflation right now. it is what i call the streetlight chart. we have red, yellow, and green. the green is good news of wage inflation 10 years ago. we go down to ugliness. where is wage growth? we have a little bit of an escape policy here. tom purcell he works for you for rbc capital markets. do you link wage inflation to --

john: we are in the camp you just articulated. there are different factors than last year, but there are a number of factors that are artificially suppressing growth in the first quarter and we see a rebound through the rest of the year. we posted an expectation better than your consensus for this number that we are going to see today 235,000. tom: your shop is particularly sensitive to dollar-canada dynamics. is a strong dollar getting in the way of optimism? john: a little bit, yes. brendan: he walked in the door this morning and slapped a five dollar bill on the table with his bet. it is 250,000 -- did i get that right? john: know, 235,000, but you refused to accept my money -- journalistic ethics. brendan: we thought you were trying to buy us off.

tom: i heard a rumor that taft may go on the five dollar bill. john: thank you for starting that rumor. vonnie: why is the dispersion so important? why are different sectors -- carl: we need to see an economy that is firing in all cylinders. if we are hitting say 235,000, as you are projecting, but if the government remains in contraction and the manufacturing is remaining strong against a stronger dollar, that payroll headline number can be interpreted in different ways, depending on how broadly the contributions are. vonnie: will it have any impact on federal reserve decision-making? carl: it will take a significant downward surprise. whatever the may outcome, we have a number of employment

report in the q2 gdp resorts out in late july, ahead of some sort of second half liftoff. we would need to sake -- to take september off. september has been our baseline view since december of last year. you would need to see payroll gains struggling to 50,000, and an unemployment rate struggling to break 5.25%. the unemployment rate has been falling at 1% per year, meaning we will have a four handle on the employment rate next quarter. in that environment janet yellen cannot wait until 2016 to move off a crisis-euro policy of zero. tom: barclays runs a vector of 4.0% one year and a half out. do you have confidence that train -- that trend can sustain? carl: for one reason -- the university of michigan sentiment report, which we will get no week -- which we will get in a

week out here -- households have a good intuition about where the unemployment rate is heading and they are telling you it will be 4.6 percent, 4.7% by year end. tom: the dialogue changes. 4.9% is a lot different than 5.0 percent. the fed expectation is full employment is about 5%. tom: jason foreman at the white house -- he cares about 4.5%. i am bundling my five dollar bills. karl: -- carl: that 4.9% -- brendan: our twitter question of the day -- when will wages finally lift off? let us know @bsurveillance.

you thought greece was the worst economy over the world? think again. "bloomberg surveillance congo streaming," streaming on bloomberg.com and your phone. ♪

tom: for those of a certain

vintage, 1977, seattle slew was watched by 21.9 million people at the belmont stakes as seattle slew took the triple crown. can that happen this weekend as well? this is going to be exciting. it is going beyond, yeah, yeah mint juleps. brendan: there is a horse. look at that. there is a chart -- it is always on the backside with a loss happens. we are moving on to the single best chart this morning. it is not greece. it is a really bad economy, worse than greece, the worst in the world right now. it is the topic of today's single best chart. here is what you're looking at. that is gdp growth in macau. the former portuguese colony is an economy based on an entirely

gaming and tourism. what you see right around -- we are not sure cause and effect but right around where the red dot is where you see the drop, that is just before xi jinping decided corruption was over in china. tom: to be clear, chinese go to macau. brendan: and i can show you where you can see that. you look in the dip in the recession -- go back to the chart -- look how strong it is right after that. it shoots right back up. that is the stimulus in china. we are seeing an economy tied entirely to china. what they are doing, because gaming revenue is so volatile, they are trying to do what las vegas did in macau, broadening resorts. tom: this goes back to escape velocity. john taft is with us from minneapolis and rbc wealth. i would suggest you do better than we do because we look about six blocks east, west, north,

and south of midtown manhattan. is escape velocity out there in the middle west right now? i see agriculture crisis is a little bit light. john: know, there is sloppy, sluggish economic recovery everywhere. there is not escape velocity. tom: when you drive west from minneapolis -- which i have never done -- i hear it is fabulous. john: don't do it. tom: it is out there. john: there is nothing there, by the way, except the big joke north dakota, which everybody used to laugh about growing up is one of the best economies. tom: how beleaguered are the dakotas when you look west from minneapolis? john: they are struggling. now they are going through all the dislocation. brendan: you cannot just call them the dakotas anymore.

there is a real difference between north dakota and south dakota. south dakota is a completely different economy. tom: they have great college hockey. brendan: i was wondering what was going to happen at the end of that thought. vonnie: there is great anticipation, anxiety syndrome. but when do you expect the rate increase? john: we are in the same camp as your economist -- september very likely. 25 basis points. i just wish we would do it so that we would rip the band-aid off and get on that side of what is an inevitable event at some point. tom: remember m1, m2, m3? your world and mine stopped. vonnie: right now, photos. in germany, we have the g7 upcoming meeting. more than 35,000 will be protesting. president obama, angela merkel

and others are scheduled to meet. discussed will be topics like a bola, the economy. american military personnel were deposed. should not wear cowboy apparel or t-shirts. ahead of world oceans day next week, a new adventure capturing underwater images from the bahamas, great barrier reef, and the florida keys. humpback whales, sea turtles, and shipwrecks can be studied to monitor how coral reefs change over time. tom: i do not do this enough. vonnie: the bahamas? i do not either. it is the 31st anniversary of "ferris bueller's day off."

brendan: and if you were 10 that day, by chance -- vonnie: i believe i was 14 yesterday. brendan: i was a preteen and i learned a lot from the movie. that song, -- that movie taught me the song ♪ i recall central park and fall that's not all ♪ tom: matthew broderick in "glory." he is stunning in "glory." richard clarida is with us in the next hour, and we will speak with him about the bombshell yesterday christine lagarde.

at 8:30, jobs day, on bloomberg television and radio worldwide. good morning. ♪

tom: good jobs day, everyone.

calmer markets in the last hour. a little bit weaker euro futures at negative seven. it is a busy world this morning. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: services will be held tomorrow for vice president biden's eldest son. beau biden was 46 and died of brain cancer. president obama will deliver the eulogy. biden was a former delaware attorney general. two of europe has biggest wireless providers are in talks to swap sx. -- two swap assets. bloomberg news is reporting that a deal involving vodafone's european businesses is one of the options. if you are willing to throw dietary caution to the wind there are freebies to be had today on national doughnut day. many places are celebrating with giveaways. the salvation started -- the salvation army started it all

years ago during the depression. brendan: i assumed that this was something the national doughnut manufacturers association forced on us. tom: can we go to something important gekko bre? brendan -- krispy kreme or dunkin' donuts? brendan: generally accepted his krispy kreme, the gold standard. tom: ok, let's agree that we need to look forward to our next hour of "bloomberg surveillance ." richard clarida will look forward on to christine lagarde's comments on waiting until 2016. and then on to the jobs report u.s. optimism, one of our themes this morning. jim matus is particularly optimistic about the u.s. economy forward. -- drew matus is particularly

optimistic about the u.s. economy going forward. here is the rule. it is in america, it is ancient, and it is foundational. let me quote -- "to observe how intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, let's begin something memorized by any and all in investment business. the prudent man rule of 1830." it is 2015 and it is time for a fiduciary update, except that maybe we are too prudent, there will be too little risk taken. john taft is in the crosshairs of this debate, with his wonderful book, "stewardship," is taking on capitalism. this is a huge deal going back to 1830. john: and it is the single biggest issue right now for individuals and firms that advise individuals on their retirement savings and their wealth. should there be a fiduciary standard for anyone who provides

advice to individuals? that is the debate going on now. tom: if we get a bear market every single advisor gets a lawsuit. john: that's right. tales i win, heads i win. here is the point. an individual walks into a financial advisor's firm or they have no idea what regulatory standard that advisor is operating under. insurance agencies, one investors and advisors another, retail brokers, third. we are still talking about whether to do that, and if so, how. tom: you are looking for a hippocratic oath an update, or something more? john: you need a standard, which by the way the industry supports. advisors anyone who talks to individuals as put the

investor's best interest first. there is no debate that we should do that. that is a remarkable thing. the debate that you hear, when you hear rick catch him at finn rough -- at finra, criticizing the department of labor, the devil is in the details. the debate is over. whether there should be a fiduciary standard when you are dealing with individual investors, the answer is there should be. nobody disagrees with that. how do we do it? that is what is going on in the market right now. tom: this is a huge deal. we have the janet yellen market going up forever. what do you mean my bond market is down 7%? that is where we are going right? huge deal. john taft, thank you so much per it let me get to a forex report this morning. futures, negative seven, and we have some movement there. dollar-yen -- the euro was 1.1

-- is now weaker, 1.1221. stay with us. another jobs day hour of "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: european leaders will

periodic -- will be preoccupied with greece. alexis tsipras will take a phone call from vladimir putin. it is jobs day, and it has changed after christine lagarde tells jalan yellin -- tells janet yellen to wait until 2016. and he gets worse -- chinese hackers have 4 million americans' personal information. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. it is jobs day. i'm tom keene. joining me are vonnie quinn and brendan greeley. can you explain to me about vladimir putin intruding into the greece debate? brendan: i do not think he is intruding. i think he is willing to offer a bargaining chip to alexis tsipras. alexis tsipras has been trying to show europe for the last four months that he has an alternative. vladimir putin is an alternative. there is no other reason for him to be doing it. this is all hard ball. tom: what has changed in germany this week with the madness of

this back-and-forth? brendan: merkel is trying to get a deal, but we used to think that greece was synonymous with the european economy. that is no longer true. you have great manufacturing data, great estimates out this morning. europe is going to be fine. this is a sideshow. tom: brendan greeley on greece. we will have much more on that throughout the morning. let's get to top jobs they headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: about 90 minutes from now. we have a deal this morning. cardinal health buying -- 226,000 jobs are predicted to have been created last month. the economy is expected to hold steady at 5.4%. but is the labor market strong enough to prompt an early interest rate increase by the federal reserve? that was the focus yesterday for the head of

the international monetary fund. christine lagarde: we are seeing there is a case to raise -- we are thinking there is no case to raise rates until signs of a rising inflation that are more than currently evident. we believe a rate hike would be better off in early 2016. vonnie: we will have the jobs report for you on bloomberg as soon as it is released at a: 30 eastern. hackers from china are being blamed for stealing data of millions of u.s. government workers. the records of up to 4 million current and former federal employees were taken. one of the targets, workers who applied for security clearances. a chinese government spokesperson denies any connection between the attack and china. the prime minister of greece is raising the stakes in the debt crisis. alexis tsipras decided to defer a payment to the imf today. greece says it will bundle that

with three other payments and make them all at the end of the month. no country has done that in more than three decades, but the european commission says it does not see the deferred payment as a sign of default. today alexis tsipras will talk by phone with russian resident -- with russian president vladimir putin. goldman sachs made pay billions in a government investigation. goldman is in talks to pay up to $3 billion in the probe of mortgage bond sales. a settlement could be weeks away. the government had been pushing to hold more wall street firms accountable for the 2008 financial crisis. they worked overtime in game one in the nba finals print golden state beat the visiting cavaliers, 108-100. the warriors overcame the 44 points scored by lebron james. game two is monday night.

brendan: waiting for the cape? tom: that is something out of fifa. we have to have a fifa mention every hour. brendan: widest can't keep doing this? i have given up on fifa. tom: negative seven on futures earlier, no negative six on futures. it is jobs day, and our labor economy is directly linked to fed policy, which means the 8:30 report matters to christine lagarde and the imf. drew matus flat out disagrees with the imf. he is at ubs. we are honored this morning to have richard clarida, with pimco, but that barely describes his position at columbia university. i thought history was made yesterday. mohamed el-erian formerly worked with you at pimco. he was stunned at the

specificity that met christine lagarde gave yesterday. >> it is quite unusual for an official at that level to get into specific dates to which the fed should be rate hiking. i have never seen that before, so i was stunned. tom: i was stunned by it. drew matus, thank you for joining us. yesterday she had that one key headline -- she wants janet yellen to overshoot on inflation. i'm eagerly thought of rudy dornbusch. you teach this at columbia. drew: i took rudy dornbusch's course. tom: would you explain what rudy dornbusch means to christine lagarde and every american. drew: you want a policy that overshoots.

mike woodford resurrected that idea of price level targeting. i think the fed and janet yellen will be sympathetic to that. they would not be happy with an overshoot. tom: the first two pages of the rogoff paper, he mentions stanley fischer, who i believe is standing next to janet yellen. brendan: stanley fischer is also earning -- is also urging the fed. i'm curious about something that mohamed el-erian wrote this morning. the fed has been working to try and tell everybody we are going to raise rates, maybe a little bit, but do not worry about it do not freak out and all of a sudden we have christine lagarde saying, no, the rate rise is important. i'm asking you to hold off. these are different communications strategies. richard: they are completely different.

they want the prospect that in a couple of years inflation will be rising, continued progress in the labor market. by that standard, they will not wait until 2016. tom: drew, i have to come to you. i thought of your ex colleague, george magnus, sitting and london at ubs. do you anticipate that christine lagarde will be lecturing kearny, draghi? is this a more assertive imf? drew: it has the chance to be. the question is if the imf is assertive and no one listens to them, sometimes you only want to get away with what you can get away with. my kids know this. they do not ask for things i will definitely say no to. they sort of toss a floater out there and hope for the best. if christine lagarde says this and everything works out, where is the imf after that? tom: this is a new imf, richard

clarida, isn't it? richard: it is. policymakers have been pushed around the world to take the risk of overshooting inflation. blanche hardthey are making the mistake of being too easy for too long at not hiking early. brendan: his legacy from his time at the imf has been taking another look at their model saying maybe we did make a mistake and this is how things have changed. he has done a good job moving macroeconomics forward. richard: he was my thesis advisor, so i have known him for 30-plus years. he has done a fabulous job there. but in the context of christine lagarde's statements, there is a reflate. tom: we are getting too much certitude here.

there is too much model building at the imf. do you feel you have to have the humility that schiller would have? drew: i cannot believe that anybody would care about 25 basis points in a three-month time difference. richard: we need to be humble. in the monetary history, when it is written in the 50 years of this decade, no one will care that it is september versus december or january. or 25 then versus 52 months later. vonnie: are we little bit bemused that janet yellen has no reaction to what christine lagarde said yesterday? richard: she had a panel month ago where she and janet yellen were on the stage, and it was a little bit unusual because christine lagarde had the chance to lecture her in person and she chose not to. tom: i could see the phone call.

a little busy right now, but she wanted me to call. this is unprecedented. my take on this, how does the fed respond to these kind words of the imf? richard: there will be a press conference in two weeks. mike will ask, and she will have a chance to comment, and i am sure she will have a very scripted 52nd soundbite. brendan: it is jobs day. when will rages -- when will wages finally lift off with new job? wages jobs -- that is what we do here. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

tom: sometimes you just get on the phone, and you do that one someone owns the -- brendan: someone stole the records of 4 million current and former federal employees. there are only 4.2 million federal workers in total. mike riley is on the phone. she -- he breaks stories on this. he is who i generally call to understand it. this morning you broke the story that these hacks are related to

the sets of personal records from anthem health care earlier this year. how are those two connected? mike: it is a really interesting question how they are connected and why they are going after these two different bits of data. hackers tend to have things like digital fingerprints. they use certain very specific techniques and tools and infrastructure. the same hackers who hit the office of personnel management also appear to have hit both anthem -- the big hack in february where they took 80 million records from customers -- and from there, another big health care chain. what are they doing with all the data? i think that is what the government is trying to figure out. brendan: when we look at fingerprints, the hardest thing to determine in a hack is prominence, where it came from. how do we suspect that this is coming from somewhere in china?

mike: there are various ways they do it. you have the computers that they use. obviously hackers try to hide their identity. but if you use the same set of computers and can figure out that those computers go back to a set of infrastructure already attributed to chinese cyber spies, you can see that they are using the same guns to commit a crime. that is what happened in this case. they are using the infrastructure that is known to be associated with chinese cyber spies. tom: this is critical. mike is correct that these are cyber spies, not cyber hackers. brendan: real quick, if we think that somewhere in china someone has these records, what can they do with them? this is not about credit card data. mike: do not expect your social security number or your medical records to be sold on the criminal underground and someone to steal your identity. this is about something else. the theories of the u.s.

government is that they are associated with espionage. if you have private data on somebody posts -- on summary's of records and you can match that to somebody who has national security clearances you have powerful things to recruit them. brendan: i have to jump in here. you go break something else. mike riley in d.c. on the bloomberg hacking -- on the hacking story. we will be right back. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." brendan, we look at oil. brendan: there is a lot of data to talk about. the leaders of opec are meeting in the end of this week. their world is not what it used to be. it used to be a cartel and it has turned into a knife fight. ryan, what is the decision we expected a on production targets?

ryan: they have been in there for three hours. one delegate says there is broad support for keeping the production target where it is. another one cautions there is no decision yet. they are taking a break for lunch. my hunch is they are going to prepare a statement. there is a press conference scheduled for 4:00 p.m. the bottom line is there is not a lot to talk about. pretty much everybody is happy where things are, where they have been going in terms of the oil price. they should be headed home pretty soon, and we should have a rollover. brendan: can we expect that saudi arabia is still driving the decision? ryan: yes, i think the saudi's are driving the decision. if you want to stand up to them in the meeting, you have to have good data to do it and be prepared to cut yourself. none of the other hawks are prepared to cut so they would effectively be asking saudi arabia, and that is not going to happen. we are looking for the fine print in this statement.

if in the fine print of the statement there is a call for enforcing the production target, then that could move oil prices. what you have got basically is everybody cheating. they are pumping 31.5. if it is time to enforce, they take the barrels off the market. tom: david brooks has a blistering op-ed on the partition of iraq. how important is the iraq discussion, the basra discussion in vienna? ryan: i spoke with the iraqi oil minister myself two hours ago. he says the fighting is not a material issue. they are pumping 3.8 million barrels right now and they plan to increase production. bob dudley said yesterday, if baghdad falls, you have a problem for the oil market. if it does not, it is not an issue. brendan: ryan chilcote in

vienna, thank you. we will stay on opec. john joins us from riyadh with the ashmore group. what do you expect out of today's decision? john: i do not expect any changes, no surprises. business as usual. the saudis will say, listen, our policy has been successful. in november we decided not to cut production and prices have gone up, therefore we will do the same right now and we will see oil at 16 makes countries more happier than oil at 40. business as usual for now. tom: the david brooks op-ed goes to a touchstone for every american. he alludes to the idea of refunding the sunnis west of baghdad. do you suggest that saudi arabia would refund the sunnis that supported saddam hussein? john: right now there is concern

about what is happening in iraq and saudi arabia is also quite alarmed with the situation there because we have effectively three-year runs, and iraq is running two of them quite successfully. the saudi's are going to be steadfast and they will say that we need to keep oil at 16, and we will be vigilant with what is happening with isis in syria and iraq. the situation is quite dicey and is of concern to a lot of countries. brendan: has trust broken down within opec? when they decide to change their production targets, are they going to be able to do it? john: absolutely, but then of course as everybody else and ryan alluded to, is whether they maintain the discipline. the rosier picture is that demand is picking up. there is more demand from china

and india, and, believe it or not, from europe. the wishful thinking is that supply is going to fall, and then we could see a bit of a pickup. for the rest of the year, oil will stay in the 60's range, and we will wait to see if emerging markets do better next year and we will see oil in the 70's. in the short term, there are downside risks to oil. tom: back in new york with richard clarida of pimco, andrew matus. i see you -- and drew matus. how does the debate fall back to americans' oil? do i care? drew: for the fed, it is a much less meaningful exercise. tom: do you agree with this? the top line cpi down matters versus core? cleveland pce, and all this

other mumbo-jumbo? drew: the trim mean pc -- from my point of view in the u.s., we have price stability. if it is a little below 2%, it is close enough. richard: what is relevant is the fed's view, and the fed says there is the prospect of getting to 2%. that will drive the decision. brendan: is it fair to say we did not get the pop that we hoped from oil prices? richard: so far. we have not seen it globally and we have not seen it in the u.s. we have not gotten the consumption pop, but we have gotten the cutback in the oil patch. so far, oil has not been the driver, the verio demand -- the variable demand. tom: could we go six hours with these? just have lunch with them?

brendan: we will have doughnuts in. tom: richard clarida andrew matus, we will continue our discussion here. dow futures, -38. stay with us. it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. tom: came american pharaoh do it? it depends on the track conditions. pimlico had six inches of rain on the track -- terrible. the weather has been quite good here. we had rain earlier in the week which would dry out. i would look for existing

conditions. brendan: always amazing to watch whether one horse can do it all. tom: that's just outside of new york city. safe travels to belmont. let us go to the bloomberg terminal. richard and drew are with us. this is inflation. this is 2%. this is what lagarde was talking about yesterday. she demanded an overseer purged from janet yellen and the fed to get us over as we have been before to stay around that 2%. we took about this earlier in the hour. how easy is it to do this? it is easy to talk about. richard: both are challenging. textbooks saying that printing and enough money will get inflation. so far, it has been tough to do that. the fed believes that if there was an easy enough policy they would do it. the second is the accumulation's

challenge. you want to reflect the economy but you do not want bond market vigilantes to go crazy and so often much. the fed is playing a very delphic -- delicate game. tom: of the vigilance -- are the vigilantes way out front? drew: they are kind of the shut up and show me kind of guys. i think one of the important things to think about anything about inflation as that 2% or 3% doesn't matter it is the stability of inflation over time that makes a difference. if you have a highly variant cpi, people have a hard time making decisions. tom: it is better than core pc. it is less variance. it is an optimistic series. richard: the challenge is that there are a lot of signs that wages pickup. whether that feeds into inflation, people in the bond market believe that will feed into inflation. that is a problem for the fed. drew: if it drops below five, no

one will care with the inflation rate is. people will just assume inflation will happen. the fed may be in this situation where inflation is low and it may accelerate rapidly and they not worried about what the imf says. tom: breaking news right now and let us go to that. this is with indiana. vonnie: opec is keeping production unchanged. saudi is saying that opec decided to keep the target unchanged. oil prices are trading at $61.99. pretty exciting. it sounds like opec doesn't really have any power anyways. tom: using that several few. what is the difference? vonnie: is the cartel over? can we use that word anymore? richard: the cartel was saudi.

they shocked us around thanksgiving saying that we would not cut back production. the cartel is saudi arabia in 11 other folks around the country. tom: i have to jump in. brendan: the saudi oil minister says that it was opec's most amicable meeting. eating doughnuts and jerking copies drinking coffee. the situation is not changing for a while. tom: so good for microeconomics is watching what a cartel is and how fragile a cartel can be. richard: i can't tell -- our catalysis a group of people who limit the supplies. anyone cheats. let, i find it hard to believe that you can actually enforce some sort of energy price. the u.s. could be this one

producer at any given time. drew: people talk about the shell revolution like it is over. the oil is still there. we know where it is and we can get to it anytime we want. i would rather pump it from another country and said bars. -- save our spirit we can still turn ours. we can still turn on the lights. richard: i was there from 2001-2000 three. eventually, an energy bill was signed but it was after my time. tom: there was no energy policy. richard: there was. in the first year of that administration, that was the discussion. brendan: the source of temper 11 -- before september 11, the discussion was energy policy. tom: important announcements out of the and ryan chilcote is there. what the student a day to check right now. -- let us do a day to check right now. euros down to 160.

i would watch west texas intermediate. opec cares about brunch. -- brent. the two-year yields gets my attention at .67%. brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance. " tom: let us drive the conversation forward. richard clarinet is out in front of us with recent updates and backbreaking work. one of the phrases of the moment is going from new normal to new neutral. that goes to our future terminal value where our numbers are drifting too. the glide pass of where the yield will be. where will it be. ? richard: the cello growth -- slow growth is in the world of

policy rates were some good banks will be loved for a long time. in europe, their negative. in the u.s. the fed will be hiking, but to a much lower destination that we have observed. we think a neutral policy rate for the fed is somewhere between 2% and 3% nominal. tom: when you taught econ 101, chapter 14 was on advanced and a bunch of other fancy people. what are the ramifications economically of a new set of low interest rates? does it diminish our animal spirit? richard: by keeping rates low, is reflecting the fact that there is a very antsy globally. it is an attempt to support the economy in the face of headwinds. tom: could you be that cautious, drew? drew: we are in a bit of a catch-22 with our call. we think that at zero rates on things happening -- i things

odd things happened. the one thing that has gone up in price dramatically is the cost of retirement. vonnie: is that going to have an impact on the u.s. economy anymore that has now? drew: we do not seem much in the way of a fee dinner. our model suggests that for every 1% increase in europe growth that the u.s. increases by a 10th of a percentage point. it will help, but it will not move the needle that much. richard: one caveat is that global bond markets are linked. as it chops the left field risk, bond yields go up and that translates into higher u.s. yields. it depends on global developments. you'd drew: you did see that the other day. clients are wondering what happened the fedex rotations. nothing happened the fed expectations. it is funny because a lot of equity clients are wondering what is this boom thing and how this impacts the u.s.. do you have a model on when it

will do this in 10 years? we don't model back inel. brendan: that is my new header message for my e-mail. in the halls, the whisper you constantly heard was liquidity. are you worried about liquidity? richard: the reduction and liquidity markets artifact of life and its direct consequence of the re-regulation of the federal system. i'm not saying it is a good or bad thing. it's the reality. there is less liquidity provided by mediation in the system. that is the way and the reality of markets for this for seeable future. tom: within all this mix, i'm going to ask you this with respect to professor clearness decades of work in the classroom. is any of this and in the

classrooms and textbooks? this robust -- i don't observe it in my textbooks at home. drew: i don't think there and there. you need to have a respect for behavioral finance. people are acting in a way to keep their jobs not necessarily in economically rational way. tom: wonder we see investment richard? richard: i think we're still waiting. i think the oil is obviously a negative in the u.s.. there is a shortfall in investment relative to let models would suggest relative to rates in class flow. the short answer is the shortfall of global investments. tom: one glimmer of hope -- could caps on man -- catherine mann say the u.s. is doing better? brendan: our twitter question

islamabad jobs with the unemployment rate. we are asking about wages. when will that lift off? when will it give janet yellen wings? let us know. in morning. ♪

tom: good morning.

we will go beneath the line data on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. stay with us for that. brendan: it is jobs day. i feel like he did not give enough energy to jobs day. less than an hour until jobs numbers come out. you're looking at payrolls to pick up 226,000. that is the estimate we have from economists. 5.4% unemployment. erik schatzker is with us. for jobs day, you're heading out to the oil patch. tom cole, a republican from oklahoma, will be on "market makers pick u." erik: we will have seen the numbers before tom cole talks with us. we will see some ripple can orthodoxy from mr. tom cole. that means to cut taxes and that obamacare is terrible and oppressing the american worker. we will see what these numbers show us. i will be curious to see what mr. call has to say is in fact

we see a greater than expected increase in jobs and a faster than expected decline in the unemployment rate, which is not predicted. there are some of the things that we need to talk about. it will all factor into our conversation. brendan: this is something that is always true. the party in opposition prefers a higher up to use go. if the president says that it is you three that we are looking at, you want to measure you six. is it a tale as old as time? richard: at the clutter inside. i think that you six is telling us something that is relevant about the labor market and that is why we haven't seen the wage increases. i would go back to the day where there was a misery index. 30 years ago, that is what people talk about. brendan: should we be measuring you six? richard: we look at all the numbers so yeah. vonnie: with janet yellen, she

will be watching monday and tuesday as well. it is not just today. tom: we love to trash our politicians whether it is also anybody else across america. tom cole is arguably the smartest guy in washington. he is a fulbright scholar out of oklahoma, went to yell. he is half choctaw -- i may get the tribe run. he is one of the most original people in washington and he is razor-sharp smart. he is probably the one guy who can synthesize all this together. it is really cool. you got him during jobs day. erik: we have a great lineup. in addition to tom cole, we have the mayor of indianapolis for we have tim kaine knows quite a lot about economics. then we have the labor secretary. brendan: all i'm going to say is that richard claimed a sense i've a good inside.

-- got a good insight. you should've seen the smile across my face. coming up on bloomberg television, it is jobs day. where are talking to tom cole on "market makers." the republican from oklahoma. we are not looking at jobs or the unemployment number. we are looking at wages. when will they left off? that is what we are looking at all your. this is "surveillance." good morning. ♪

tom: good morning. i'm thrilled you are with us for jobs day. bill gross will join me on bloomberg radio and of it. vonnie quinn will join me and we will look at the top headlines. vonnie: funeral services will be held for joe biden's eldest son. he died of brain cancer. president obama will deliver the eulogy. mourners pay their respects yesterday in the states senate chamber. biden was a former delaware attorney general. two of the biggest cable providers are in talks to swap assets. it involves assets controlled by john malone. they involve the company's european businesses and that is

being discussed. if you're willing to throw dietary caution to the wind, it is national doughnut day. many shops are celibate in with giveaways. the salvation army started it all 70 years ago to raise money during the depression. tom: is a public good for me going to the marginal. richard claire go with us. it is 1865 -- always go for the marginal donor. vonnie: always go for the marginal glazed donut. tom: microeconomics of donutology with professor cleared up. we are looking at jobs day. a conversation with michael o'rielly and washington on the spy tech that we see from china this market -- morning. he is truly one of the country's authorities. we will look at tennessee's nuclear revolution as well. i believe there is an event at 8:30 a.m. this morning. that would be the jobs report.

look for that on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio as well. let's get to the jobs report and turn apart. it will be here and 40 minutes. what was important on wednesday became ever more important with the yellen-lagarde operative the chief economist at ubs believes he is off the mark. drew, richard claire and i was mentioning -- claire and i was mentioning the death report. drew: everyone is going to be looking at earnings. that is what the bond market is focused on. there's probably not much interesting there. we are looking for a lot of things. you're looking for labor quality indicators. we do a high low index. part-timers as full-time, all this kind of things. i think that the job market is ok and improving. tom: dean maki over at barclays

really emphasizes the force from 10% down to 5%. he stunningly goes down to 4%. drew described for us initial force when one to keeps going and keeps going. -- went when once it gets going it keeps going. drew: everything they target trends. one of the reason that these cycles look the way to do is because of what they are targeting. i think people forget that. the fed itself tends to forget why they cycles tend to look they waited -- the way they do. brendan: we were talking metrics and baseball during the break. given the richness of the labor market conditions index, is the

simple jobs number a barbarous relic? drew: i think it is better than the labor markets index. the labor markets index. simpler is usually better in my opinion. do i believe q1 or claims? i think some will be getting laid off if the economy were in bad shape in q1. richard: i've develop my own labor market index. it is on the pimco blog. it is a momentum index that gets into the inertia. it is a nice indicator because it tends to leave payrolls and it is showing 225,000 is reasonable. tom: our control room just amended that that was a shameless plug. vonnie, jump in. vonnie: if we get a better number than forecast today, is there a better chance that june and july may be on pace for the best? richard: i don't think so. from the point of view of the fed, today's numbers are not important. if they are not strong, they're not going to hike in june.

if their week, it does not take september off of the table. i think the number is more important for the markets than it is for the fed call. tom: is this number more important for madame lagarde? i said this earlier that bank of america and merrill lynch says that 270 which change the dialogue. that was before lagarde spoke. brendan: i don't think to 70 puts june employed. richard: it increases. vonnie: does it say the course? tom: you tell me. richard: my view is that the big part of the 10 year move is the developments in the rest the world. i saw yields at 170. for some time, we have been called for 10 year yields to move off of those low levels. i'm actually not surprised. with the policy cap the feds

articulated. brendan: you said your clients are asking you what is this bund thing. do you tell them to not worry? drew: not all clients. i think you have to continue to look in the important thing to bear in mind that even though we have a focus on the bund that it is not the binding constraint. it is the same as the yields lobbying a bind a year ago. -- not being a bind a year ago. tom: is this fun? this has been unreal. we started with fifa frenzy and lagarde got here. brendan: i'm not the one who brought up feefifa. vonnie: two year yields at more than 25% run out. greece has its payment at the end of month. richard: if they were to miss

their payment at the end of the month, that would be a big deal. that would be a small step on defaulting the imf. i was but this was a a game of chicken. in the ends, they will try to deal. vonnie: get to radio. you've got more work to be done. tom: can we mention that we have heard from one of america's greatest authorities ? brendan: katie mention again that he told me i had a very interesting insight? tom: i'm leaving the set because you got more shutouts. vonnie: time to answer our twitter question of the day. thank you all so much for tweeting out us. we asked where wages will finally lift off. wage increases are already overdue. i would not expect them anytime soon. i think that is pretty standard fare. here's the second answer. wages are going up quickly because interest rates are too low. richard: chicken or egg?

both. vonnie: chicken and egg. number three -- payrolls that 220,000, no rate hike this year. anything above could signal a small increase. that brings me to my agenda today. we will be breaking down on "market makers figure."\ brendan: the joke is is my agenda going to be greece? of course, it is one to be greece. we will see how much rope he has and how much slack he has at home to make a deal. right now, it sounds like pride is getting the better of him. vonnie: come this evening, i think your agenda will be changing. brendan: at 5:00, my agenda

will be sleeping. vonnie: what about the belmont? brendan: the belmont races tomorrow. we will find out if american pharaoh can pull it off. the triple crown is very hard to do. last time at the belmont, smarty jones one. loss. he was passed at the end because he was constantly challenge. vonnie: i've the point out a story by stephen church. did you know that american pharaohs parents were collateral as he was being born? are you guys betting on tomorrow's belmont? richard: i will be watching it. i'm not allowed to say. drew: i'm pretty sure that sports betting is illegal. [laughter] vonnie: you're absolutely right. brendan: it was an amazing newsday. richard andrew, thank you both so much.

i wish we could do this for another five hours but two hours is going to have to be enough. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it will continue on radio. "market makers" up next. good jobs data you. ♪

kers," with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. stephanie: good morning. get excited. it is friday.

the first friday in june. june 5 is job stay here in america. you are watching "market makers" pattern at our new time slot. i've stephanie ruhle. erik: i'm erik schatzker. payroll numbers are out in 30 minutes. we estimate 226,000 jobs created in the month of may. he will have it all for you including reaction from both sides of the aisle. stephanie: especially americans who are also investors. plus opec leaves production unchanged and e-government data breach. we have a lot to cover. let us get you started. erik: we will bring you up to speed with these top headlines. the price of oil shot up half an hour ago after opec this i did not to change its for ceiling. the cartel has been meeting in vienna. some members wanted production cutbacks so prices could rise.