tv Market Makers Bloomberg June 5, 2015 8:00am-10:01am EDT
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the first friday in june. june 5 is job stay here in america. you are watching "market makers" pattern at our new time slot. i've stephanie ruhle. erik: i'm erik schatzker. payroll numbers are out in 30 minutes. we estimate 226,000 jobs created in the month of may. he will have it all for you including reaction from both sides of the aisle. stephanie: especially americans who are also investors. plus opec leaves production unchanged and e-government data breach. we have a lot to cover. let us get you started. erik: we will bring you up to speed with these top headlines. the price of oil shot up half an hour ago after opec this i did not to change its for ceiling. the cartel has been meeting in vienna. some members wanted production cutbacks so prices could rise.
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no matter what opec did the outcome would be more oil. saudi arabia is already pumping the most crude in three decades. they want to add millions of barrels in the market to this year. the cartel will be open-minded especially when it comes to iran. >> iran is a founder and a member and under sanction for so many years. of course, it raises the question. we will listen to them. erik: if the west reaches an agreement with iran on the nuclear program, iran would be able to sell more oil. china is rejecting claims linking the chinese government to a massive hack attack on u.s. federal employee files. officials say that hackers broke into the office of personnel management computers and slow records of as many as 4 million current and federal -- former federal employees. china denies it was involved. >> we have seen several media
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reports about this. but are they scientific? hacker attacks are committed on and it is hard to track a source. it is wrong to make these assumptions without investigation could erik: erik: one of the targets was workers who had applied for security clearances. stephanie: we will talk about greece for a minute. they will take the game of brinkmanship to another level. they will differ their payment to the imf. that is the first time any country has done it since the 1980's. greece says it will bundle today's payment with three others and pay the imf at the end of the month. meanwhile, prime minister had a late night phone call with one of the leaders of germany and france. he rejected demands for more austerity and exchange for getting bailout funds. and today, he will have a phone call with russia's president
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vladimir putin. if that does not make you nervous, i do not know what does. moving on, there is a takeover this morning and it showed distribution business. cardinal health has agreed to by the harvard drug group for a $1.1 billion. harvard drug distributes over-the-counter drugs. cardinal will have business and both of those areas. those are your top headlines of the hour. erik: let us get you started the five things to know right now. number one is jobs. the labor department coming out at 8:30 a.m. this one a good -- morning. stephanie: you have a guess? erik: i have to hate the #thing. but there is a #other and i've think it is to 63. -- 263. stephanie: i'm pretty bolstered
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i think it is to 69. it is a good time to be an american. the market needs confidence as greece isn't giving anything number two is a deal between two of europe's biggest wireless and cable providers. they are in talks to swap assets with liberty global but talks are still the early stages. erik: you know the biggest cable company in the world? liberty global. everyone thinks it is comcast. john malone's european business was the biggest cable company. if they were to somehow do a deal they could offer something better than the triple play. stephanie: the quadruple play. erik: wireless. stephanie: there you go. listen, john malone does not get it wrong. let us go out to the newsroom where julie hyman has number three. julie: could they offer you the holy grail which is good service?
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opec says it is maintaining current production targets even though the targets are elevated because there is supply the demand out there. there was some speculation that opec would actually be raising the production targets and bring even more supply onto the market. also take a step back and look at the jirga three that we have seen -- trajectory that we have seen from when prices. oil had an 11 week winning streak. even with it today, that street looks to be coming to an end with oil trading lower by 3% on the week. they game today will not save it from that weekly loss. erik: number 4 -- it is goldman sachs. the bank is close to settling an investigation to sales of mortgage backed securities. the settlement would be with the justice department and could be anywhere from $2 billion to $3 billion. we forgot about these mortgage settlements. goldman sachs and morgan
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stanley have yet to settle. we are not talking about the figures of tens of billions of dollars like citigroup, but nevertheless, the beat goes on for the doj. stephanie: the hits keep coming. for people inside of these organizations, it is so distressing. they are nothing about mortgage settlements anymore. they thinking what will my p&l be this month or this year. what business of my bring you. on top of that, the bank continues to pay fines. more and more compliance issues. is a huge bummer. it is a weight they want to get off of them. erik: goldman sachs stock up almost 8% this year. stephanie: finally, numerous ago. that is five if you do not speak spanish. tim cook gives pimco a run for its money. apple oracle, and other tech giants are now the biggest
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rise of debt. what do you think of that? erik: i think he goes to show you and reminds us once again that all you need to do is follow the money. the money is going to reno. that is where apple's money management subsidiary is based. get a hotel in reno for $60 a night. is a lot better than ellie or san francisco or boston. the point here is that they have so much cash. you take the seven largest u.s. tech firms with google oracle apple, etc. -- they have $500 billion of money they have to invest. they are not hedge funds. have to find somewhere relatively safe to park it. they are selling all the investment grade bonds issuance. stephanie: more people i'm not crying for. those your top five. for now, we have a number another -- another number. we have 30 minutes away from the labor report. joining us now is limited intelligence is own chief u.s.
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economist carl. what you expect? carl: i think we should see a return to trend after a very soft first-quarter. that means that payroll gains are close to 240,000. i think the surprise could come in the unemployment rate given the strength that we have seen in the jobless numbers. that should be consistent with another inclined to 5.3% on the unemployment rate. jobless claims at this stage of the game are useful as a barometer of unemployment rate. late in the cycle, they tend to give a misleading signal for payrolls. if you develop the payroll model based on claims, and will tell you something north of 300,000. i think that is highly unlikely. stephanie: what is your exact guess? carl: i say to 40. -- 240. erik: carlton estimating business. stephanie: what is your exact
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number? carl: 2-iron 40. -- 240. that is a big jump from where we were previously. if we look at the april number a mother revisions. the april game was only 184,000. it is a big hurdle to get the improvement that you are forecasting coul. erik: if we continue at a 200 25,000 case, how long would it take to get the unemployment rate below 5%? carl: i think will happen in the third quarter. the unemployment rate despite the gyrations and the pace of hiring an economic growth has fallen to very steady rates of about 25 basis points per quarter. that puts us with a floor handle on the unemployment rate sometime in q3. by your aunts, it could be 4.6 4.7%. -- by year end, it could be 4.6 or 4.7%. erik: we have that number coming
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in at 8:30 a.m. from the labor department. right now, we turn to a massive breach and government data. personal information for as many as 4 million current and former federal workers have been said to have been stolen by chinese hackers. mike reilly joins us. this is not the first allegation of chinese hacking into government computers. what are they trying to get and why? mike: it is not the first time but it is a shift. they acquired data from social security numbers to the answers they gave on background checks. that is from 4 million current and former workers for you a huge amount of the federal workforce. the question is what are they after? these are cyber spies. this is stuff that will not end up on the criminal underground. you can imagine that they are
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after it for purposes of trying to figure out are these guys recruited will or are they weaknesses? if you had a list of anyone who has security clearances and you are a foreign spy, that is a huge asset. this is a huge hit to the u.s. government. stephanie: what is the most valuable piece of information? what would they want the most? mike: the office of personnel management handle security clearances. everybody who has a top-secret clearance or above that, they would have a list of who those people are, where they're at, what agencies they work in. again, if you are a spy, that is a great list to have. erik: how does the government go about trying to find out what the chinese are doing with this information? 4 million people -- it is impossible to conduct at that scale some kind of a systematic audit, is it? mike: clearly from the hacker's point of view that they just
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vacuumed up everything they can get. the bad news is that they pretty much got everything. the u.s. government is trying to figure out what they're doing with this information. the have task forces in different parts of the government trying to think if we were them, what will we do with a lot of personal information not just the national circuit's stuff, but you have social security numbers and addresses and all sorts of tools to use for recruiting. they are also stealing data on federal workers from other places including health care companies like health insurers and hospitals. if you start to cross section and cross analyze that, you have really interesting pictures of employees with a lot of information and what weaknesses and vulnerabilities they might have. erik: we thank you very much. mike riley and washington. coming up here after more than 35 years in the making, the tennessee valley authority's new nuclear plant is finally nearing completion. will it be worth the enormous price tag?
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stephanie: welcome back. we are in our new time slot and it is friday. time to play "name. take a look at this disco king. he is in retail and graduated from roslyn high school. that is all producers are telling us. what is the year 1980. that guy looks like he should be on dance fever. you can tweet us your guesses. not just your guest and his name, but some flavor. tell us about this person. i'm going to have to think hard. erik: what do you think he was listening to one graduating in 1980?
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stephanie: if you is not trained only -- channeling -- if you thought channeling john travolta, i do not know what. they're a big roadblocks before apple can unveil its new streaming service good apple is still the gushing with record labels over terms. the labels are pushing to get a larger share of revenue than they receive with spotify, the industry leader. two of europe's biggest wireless and cable providers are in talks to swap assets. the negotiations involved vods afone and liberty global. they are both owned by john malone. erik: the european businesses are one of the options being discussed. pepsi wants you to drink craft sodas. it is a fountain drink that will use real sugar rather than high fructose corn spirit that the use for most of the beverages. the flavors will include black
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cherry with tarragon and wants hibiscus. those are your top headlines. stephanie: would you like to try this? erik: i'll try, but will i like? we'll see. no state would like to bring more carbon power online than tennessee. this is a nuclear story. first created in 1973, the tennessee valley authority is scheduled to start producing electricity at a course -- cost of $4.5 billion. bill johnson is back with us on market makers." $4.5 billion -- you and not responsible for that. was it worth it? bill: that is a very cheap point. it will power 700,000 homes. is the cost below are embedded
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cost of electricity. it is worth it. erik: should we read think nuclear and america out of the country -- in america now that this country has so much access? for the future, i'm not suggesting we turn this on and then shut it down right away. now that we have access to cheap gas from fracking should we build more nuclear plants? bill: i think we need to build more nuclear plants. 90% of our power comes from nuclear. it is the cheapest and most reliable. by 2050, all those plants are going to be retired. erik: it is cheaper for you factor in the cost of storage. bill: waste storage is more of a political problem. we know how to do this. they do it around the world using american technology. i really don't think that is a big issue. it is certainly not an economic issue. stephanie: how's it more of a political issue -- the environment? bill: those really political
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issues. erik: what is more dangerous -- nuclear waste or fracking? bill: fracking is generally safe if done right. we have had no issues in the country with storing nuclear field. i think they are both safe if done right. stephanie: when will it be fully operational? bill: hopefully by the end of the year. we have worked on it for the last four years. erik: sorry. why does the start update keep getting pushback? bill: i think i was in high school when it started. erik: i mean recently. it was supposed to be this month, wasn't it? bill: the range is between june of this year in june of next year. we will be halfway in the range. december would be a great
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christmas present for us. stephanie: how main jobs of you created -- have you created? bill: our business is shrinking. we have been employing less. part of our job at tva is to make jobs within reason. if you look at last year and this year, we have made almost $15 billion in capital investment driven by a low electric rate. stephanie: what is your view on the u.s. economy given your position? bill: i think you are a little balls. i'm not going to follow your bet on the upcoming horserace. i think it is sluggish. it is rough. stephanie: there you go. erik: bill, good to see. stephanie: first friday in june no better day to talk nuclear energy. bill johnson, the ceo of the tennessee valley authority. erik: we are minutes away from the jobs report. economists expect to earn 26,000 jobs in the month of may. the report is coming up in a few minutes.
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stephanie: welcome back. i am stephanie ruhle. the main jobs report is just minutes away. economist tim kaine expect a number north of 200,000. the bloomberg institutions fellow is looking deeper than headlines data for signs of strength and weakness in the u.s. economy. good morning. less than five minutes away. what specifically do you want to see? tim: i will look at the unemployment rate.
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that is the first number. it is a bit of a broken barometer. that means we have to look deeper like you said at the labor force participation rate. it has been stuck basically a lot lower. 3.5% points lower than previous recoveries. i will look to see if that number grows at all. and see if we pull people back into the labor force. erik: if it grows, it will not grow by much. it is unlikely we will see that number pop up. participation has flatlined, but one other thing that has been demonstrating and improving trend and improving faster is the percentage of americans in the labor force. that has been growing. tim: you can look at employment to population or labor force participation. i have seen them as identical twins. at both exactly 3.5% lower than they were in the previous boom times. they are kind of twins. let us look at other numbers.
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i would look at the duration of unemployment. that number was, i think, 30 weeks. the previous norm was half that. i think i like to see that slack being dried up. stephanie: you compare those numbers to historical boom times, but how would you compare our overall economy to the environment andthen? tim: it has been a weak recovery. it is hard to understand whether it is strongly week. i was talking to a producer yesterday -- is it healthy? we will not get a sign of health this month. the phrase that you have heard is is this the new normal? the new normal is not as healthy as previous recoveries. there are a lot of different levers i would like to pull if i were the emperor. erik: it is a tough job for janet yellen and her colleagues to get a clear read on what is happening in the economy.
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that is why we are having these kinds of conversations. what do you think the fed is most closely looking at right now -- wish indicators -- which indicators of the labor market? tim: i don't know. i think they're looking at the wrong indicators. they focus too much on the labor market and i think they have overstimulated for too long. we have been stipulating -- stimulating the economy for over five years. i do not think keeping rates near zero is helping. if you want to get a mission -- ammunition if there's another recession. we are about due for another recession. these things happen every five to six years historically. erik: let us talk for a moment as we wait for this number about this idea of overstimulating the economy. you know about the feds dual mandate much better than i do. they are trying to promote maximum employment and trying to keep inflation at a reasonable level. we have neither maximum
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employment however you define it these days or inflation. tim: there's also a concern when you keep interest rates low that you are feeling the bubble and you cannot see the bubble i have time. it does not feel like it. it reminds me today of where we are. it reminds me a lot of what we have learned about in our early econ 101 textbooks about stagflation. economist didn't know such a thing could exist. i'm telling you that there could be a bubble when you have interest rates this low. erik: there's no question that you are absolutely right. i think paul krugman would agree with you. these congressional mandates -- they are ordered to do this. stephanie: how about christine lagarde weighing in? tim: i was sort of surprised to see. i know she has to keep her eye on the whole world. with that said, the u.s. economy is pretty strong. that unemployment rate, even though i think it is a bit broken, it is telling us that
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the capacity utilization -- they commit that way not as a health labor market. we are at about capacity. you do not keep interest rates at zero. erik: i'd not want to interrupt you, but let us see what the number is with peter cook in the labor market. peter: 280,000 jobs in the month of may, better than expected. we do have the implement rate ticking up to five point 5%, but it was for good reason. more people looking for work. we have good news on the wage front. the 280,000 jobs we had a last month, that is the best month since december. revisions at 32,000 jobs to the prior two mont speared back to march, that stands at 119,000 jobs, better than what was first reported. the 2015 average now stands at 217,000 jobs a month. the household survey up to five
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point 5% from 5.4%, the first increase since january. the participation rate is moving higher to 62.9%. the labor force grew by 397,000 people. the underemployment rate still standing at 10.8 percent. who was hiring last month? rough national business services up 62000 and temporary hiring up 20,000 within that category perhaps an indicator of more demand. a jump for arch entertainment and recreation, up nearly 30,000. health care of 47,000. any fracturing, not great, but still some growth, up 7000 jobs -- for manufacturing good lost jobs in the oil and gas sector, no surprise. mining and logging down. 17,000 jobs in support activities for money, and that includes oil and gas. we have lost xd 8000 jobs in the mining and logging sector.
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year-over-year increase at 2.3% of the average work week is 34.5, holding steady. this report is better than expected, certainly better than christine lagarde at the imf had expected. a lot to consider. it looks and the rebound from the first quarter is showing up. stephanie: our own peter cook. thank you. erik, how do you like me now? i was more bullish. let's take you to julie hyman here and she is in the newsroom. let's look at the market reaction to her julie: look at the treasury market to the moves in the 10-year and across the curve is massive. look at the spike in the 10-year yield, spiking right now to about 2.45% the highest this year. at one point it was the highest since late september. we have been talking in recent days about not just the
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trajectory of the fed, but the velocity of change, the abruptness of change that we could see in the treasury market . and the volatility, of course, mario draghi referring to that in the bond market. and here we are seeing this big spike in the treasury yields. we are seeing it across the curve, and the 30 and the two-year as well. looking at currencies, i was looking at the dollar and seeing that spike in the dollar. there you have the dollar index. up .9% right now. if you look at the reaction in u.s. futures the stock futures, it was not nearly as dramatic interestingly enough. yes, they remained lower, maybe even taking a little bit of a leg lower than before the report. that is like what we have seen with recent economic data where we see yields move up. we have tended to see stocks move down, perhaps on concern
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about the fed's exit and the effect it will have on its stock spirit stocks in general have remained less volatile than in the bond market. erik: let's bring tim kaine back in with us. he is a fellow at the hoover institution in california. a big number, 280,000, surprising to some of the most bullish economists. what does this change for the fed? tim: this is a green light number, a good number. hopefully it will be a great summer. all those kids free from school this week it know that mom and dad are happy. for the fed, this means they can go ahead and start easing those rates up a little bit. there is still a lot of slack in the economy. we have 8 million people missing. but that participation rate number is inching up, all good news. erik: underemployment remains at 10.8%. what does that tell us?
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tim: these things move slowly. that will move when labor force participation rates pick up. maybe we will be stuck here. that is something the fed has to realize. these people may not come back. but you see hundreds of thousands of payroll jobs being created. we are keeping up with inflation and a little bit more. this may be as good as it gets. it is good news for the summer for the fed, and for the world economy. stephanie: should we be surprised that we have gotten mixed economic data in the last month or so, specifically in retail sales? ask prices are lower and people have jobs, so why are consumers not spending? do we actually think americans are starting to save? no. tim: that would actually be good news. but there is a psychological story. we talked about 8 million people missing from the labor force for that could be an uncle, spells or viewers that are not seeing the uptick.
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the economy may never fully be back, so people are going to be cautious. a little more saving is great, and maybe we return to some real normalcy for the longer term. erik: peter cook at the labor time -- labor department, it is not a normal economy quite yet, but there are signs of the wage inflation every but he has been looking for, in addition to this job gains. peter: yes, everybody has been waiting for that wage pressure to finally translate into more hey for americans. -- more pay for american spirit in the report, on the retail front, the consumer spending side of things, at least businesses think the americans and=== -- american consumers might be coming back soon. a decent stretch for retail. at least companies out there are trying to sell things to americans, and they have confidence enough to be adding to their own payrolls at this time here at maybe that means
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they think consumers are coming back sooner. erik: tim, how do we balance the tailwind if you will, of cheaper oil prices against the job losses that continue to come in energy because of oil at $60 not being profitable for those in the shale patch? tim: the bigger news is that the lower energy prices are good for the economy. energy spikes, particularly oil price spikes that precedes a lot of recession spirit that factors into everything. it is very ugly. this is great news. it we keep energy prices low, it should make this recovery stronger and give us a lot of confidence going forward hearing yes there will be some job losses, but i think you will see job creation in places you would never expect. that is historically natural. who knew the internet was coming 20 years ago.
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stephanie: al gore. erik: tim, thank you. tim kane is a fellow of the hoover institution at stanford university in california. our own julie hyman and peter cook raking down those numbers. 280,000, a huge month. stephanie: and you know who did not see it coming -- paul krugman. he said the worldwide web -- he totally understated how important it would be. erik: for paul krugman. stephanie: when we return, republican reaction to the massive jobs never. ♪
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jobs were added in the month of may, way higher than the average economist forecast. the white house is pleased, and we will be hearing from the labor secretary later in the show. right now, we're getting reaction from the republican side of the aisle. oklahoma representative tom cole is on capitol hill. you have to be pleased with a number like 280,000. congressman cole: absolutely. wage numbers moving up is also a sign of good news. i have very pleased with the number. erik: what does it tell you about the economy? congressman cole: it tells is maybe the disappointing first quarter was related to the weather and not a structural problem. it tells me the fed is probably on track to raise rates a little bit this year. so steady as she goes spirit we still have her all problems. we have an underutilization of our labor force. on balance, again, this is good news. we can use a lot more of it.
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the recovery has been painfully slow, about half of what we normally get after a steep recession. but if we are picking up a little bit of steam, that is great. stephanie: the tpp bill, many people are concerned it is going to make us lose manufacturing jobs for my lose them to countries in asia. does the dot have the 200 votes to back-checked that bill? people care about it in terms of jobs. conversely call: they certainly do -- congressman cole: they certainly do. if we do not engage in a robust effort to be in the markets, the chinese and our other competitors will. we are working hard to get the vote spirit we wish we had a little bit more democratic help. we only have about 17 or 18 democratic house members out of 188 that are willing to step up and help the democratic president achieve his goals spirit we have the leader of the
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democrats saying it is not her job to help the president achieve his agenda, even though they are from the same party. at the end of the day i think we will get the votes we need. stephanie: but at this point you do not have the 200? congressman cole: let's just say we're continuing to work, but i fell confident about where we will be at the end of the day. erik: i do not need to remind americans that there is a republican congress. there is still a democrat in the white house. today's gains bring the president's job creation record in the private sector to almost 8.4 million. that is an awful lot of jobs. does it make it harder, effectively, for your party to advance its interests in the debate over fiscal and other policies question mark congressman cole: i am not too worried about that. we would not control both houses if we were not adept at advancing our argument. it is the president who has lost
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ground politically here, not the republican party to the good news is good news. i am happy any time jobs increase and we just go up. but it has been a relatively slow recovery. there have been problems around the world. the president cannot get any help from his own party. i would say we are doing the right things. i feel comfortable about where we will be politically. meantime, look, i want the country to do well. we will be fine. serco the -- erik: $60 for oil is tough to swallow. congressman cole: it is but we are a lot more diversified of an economy than we used to be. look, we would prefer from our standpoint higher prices on oil but from the country's standpoint, perhaps not. we will do our best to get you need to produce energy for the
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country and see where we go from there. oklahoma is doing reasonably well right now. erik: you are on the appropriations committee to one of the big pieces of information you need to do just this morning, the news that chinese hackers have infiltrated the government once again and taken personal information of about 4 million current and former federal employees. is this a single the compass needs to appropriate more money to fight cyber hacking by the chinese, russians, and others? congressman cole: frankly, i think we probably do. i think most of the requests that the administration and others have made to congress in terms of providing funds for cyber security have in matt. perhaps we need to relook at the program if we are not able to be more successful than this. at the end of the day, i consider this a very bipartisan issue. both sides are concerned about cyber security and both sides have been willing to support whatever measures are necessary.
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i think that will continue going forward. if anything, this will add emphasis to that. erik: wake-up call, for sure. congressman, thank you very much. tom cole from the state of oklahoma here with us on "market makers." ahead, reaction from the white house with the labor secretary. you will not want to miss it. that is at around 9:35 this morning, maybe a couple minutes early. we look forward to hearing from him. the white house is very pleased with 280,000. ♪
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employers added 280,000 jobs well above the median forecast. the unemployment rate moved up .1% to 5.5% due to more people entering the labor force. that is considered a positive sign your services will be held for vice president joe biden's eldest son tomorrow. bo biden died of brain cancer and 46 years old president obama will deliver a eulogy -- beau biden died of brain cancer he was a former delaware attorney general. facebook is rolling out a light version of its app, designed for places where wireless data bandwidth is scarce. facebook hopes it will help those using android phones in developing countries. those are some of your top headlines. stephanie: guess what else we want to talk about? it is friday and time to play the yearbook game. i love the subject today. so disco.
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compatriots. she strengthened her lead in the rankings. stephanie: welcome back. good thing you were not here for the commercial break. my own team not wanting to pay me for winning the jobs number. i would like to remind you, i guessed 269,000 yard we will not dwell on that. our senior marker -- our senior market correspondent julie hyland -- julie hyman joins us now with analyst calls. julie: the other analyst calls. i want to talk about standards
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-- about standisk. the shares are trading a little bit higher in the premarket. it is said that some suitors for sandisk to the micron -- could be micron, western digital, and a couple others. rbc analysts saying an acquisition by seagate or western digital be a low probability. what i have here is a look at valuation and estimated sales growth. here is sandisk way back here. it is valued about in line with peers that the estimated sales growth is much lower than some of them. the average is the pink bubble. you have to factor that in when looking at the prospects for it potentially to be taken up. erik: thank you very much. coming up walmart's shareholder meeting is underway. new developments include royal
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rket makers" with erik schatzker and the stephanie ruhle. erik: good morning. you are watching on our new time on bloomberg television, 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. stephanie: we're focusing on the jobs number, but it is also national doughnut day. so congratulations to all you homer simpsons out there. let's take it back to jobs. we have not seen a report like this in five months. in may, employers added 280,000 jobs, much better than expected. it shows that companies are upbeat about the economy after
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the slump in the first quarter. the jobless rate did tick upward, rising .1%. that is because more people have entered the workforce. opec simply staying the course. at a meeting in vienna, the oil cartel has decided not to change its output ceiling. ryan chilcote is on the ground with the latest. ryan: they are concerned about maintaining market shares more so than about price. it is a policy that they imposed at the last meeting. the idea is to pump more oil drive the price down, push out high cost reducers, maybe even shell producers. they are seeing some vindication in that policy. in the last six months since they match, price has gone appeared they like that, so they will continue it. stephanie: that decision, of course, sent the price of crude higher. member nations have been pumping about one billion -- one million
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barrels extra. saudi arabia says the overproduction is likely to continue. erik: china is firing back at reports that it is behind a giant hack attack on u.s. government employees. officials say the hackers broke of the the office of personnel management and still records of as many as 4 million current and past federal employees. china coast the reports slanderous and denied being involved -- china calls the reports slanderous. >> we have seen many similar reports and remarks about this. are they scientific? we know that hacker attacks are conducted and honestly -- anonymously across nations. it is hard to track the source. it is irresponsible to make assumptions without a deep investigation. erik: u.s. authorities say one of the targets of this hack attack was workers who applied for security clearances. greece has raced the stakes -- has raised the stakes in the should on with editors been we
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will hear from the man responsible. the prime minister will be speaking with the greek parliament. last night, he'd said greece cannot trade austerity for bail of fun spirit greece has pushed up to the international monetary fund. a new plan is to bundle a number of upcoming imf payments and come up with the money at the end of the month. no country has done that with the imf in three decades. those are your top deadlines. back to jobs, 280,000 jobs created in may. signs of that elusive wage inflation flickers, if you will. two peters are with us. peter cook is back from the labor department. and in new york our economics editor, peter crawleyoy. peter c: not very many people thought we would go into recession, but when we had the
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decline in gdp in the first quarter, some people cannot entirely discount. now -- erik: because it is this a strong? peter c: it is a good number, at the above the pace of the last 12 months be at we had rising pay. we can say now that the fed is on track to go ahead and raise interest rates under this year because they do not need to worry that we are headed for a recession. erik: so christine lagarde is wrong? stephanie: not in terms of she is in a bad situation and europe needs help, but janet yellen can stick to her guns. peter coy: i am not saying with the fed should do, but i am saying whether they will do. janet yellen versus christine lagarde -- lagarde is more dovish which is funny coming from the imf, but that seems to be the perspective. stephanie: maybe she is more dumbest because -- maybe she's
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more dovish because she has more problems that janet yellen? peter coy: she is really concerned about growth. the fed, janet yellen, are waiting perspectives. the hawks and the doves and the fomc might be saying, let's find a middle course here. that is probably a rate hike in september. erik: we are clearly must focus on the number of 280,000 and but there were positive revisions from the previous two months. peter cook: in march, there was a report that only 85,000 jobs were added. that is revised up to 119,000. there was that slowdown in the first quarter, but it looks like the u.s. economy started to rebound in march, april, and certainly in may with this number of 280,000. within separate categories there are signs of growth going forward. construction looks pretty good,
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17000. a right in manufacturing. people have been looking at those numbers as being an important parameter particularly with the strength of the dollar and reports some manufacturers that they're having some hard times dealing with those currency issues. a good solid report. the one sector that is not a big surprise is oil and gas. it is continuing to shed jobs. that is not a total surprise. we lost jobs every month this year in that sector. back to your quick point about christine lagarde -- remember, she is not so much worried about the u.s. economy right now but about financial stability and what a rate hike might mean in other parts of the world. stephanie: peter coy, it is fair to assume that this and the data behind it will bring a stronger dollar heading into september, which could be when we likely see the height. peter coy: a stronger dollar
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achieves a lot of what a rate hike would achieve for the fed. so they have that dynamic going on where if the dollar rises, it reduces the necessity for a rate hike, but if they do not do the rate hike, then the dollar will fall. they interact in complicated ways. erik: collocated -- i mean there are clearly more factors than just the dollar. peter coy: peter cook made a good point about christine lagarde's motivations. a strong rise in interest-rate in the u.s. will disrupt the carry trade worldwide especially damaging developing nations that are dependent on that capital. she has a global perspective. janet yellen, the fed has an we're focused on the u.s. economy and if the u.s. economy does well, that should be good for the rest of the world. stephanie: that is what her job is. peter coy: exactly. so it is not a surprise that
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stephanie: welcome back. i am stephanie ruhle. in indianapolis, it is not just the speedway moving fast -- labor force has seen a rise while unemployment falls good that can indian keep up and sustained job attraction? joining us as indianapolis mayor greg ballard. he is in indianapolis. this job number, 280,000, tell us, how is that playing out in
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your town? mayor ballard: it is playing a very well. we have been working very hard to create the city. we have done a pretty good job of that over the last two years. we obviously want to continue that. we have strong industry here. we weathered the recession pretty well and we are in a well position going into the future. erik: how is it between indianapolis and other jurisdictions to attract the talent you would like to have, high-paying jobs? mayor ballard: i always say my main job is the mayor is to attract talent into the city. to do that, you have to create an environment. i think it is competitive. all the mayors, even though we worked together on so many things and trade ideas and share everything, we are also competitive with each other to attract that talent so businesses can flow into the city here it is a different dynamic than when i grew up.
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now the millenials are looking to go to the city they want, the quality of life they want, and they make their life there. stephanie: where are you trying to take people from? what other cities are you targeting? i mean, i am guessing you're are not looking at new york city dwellers. mayor ballard: actually, there are quite a few new york city folks moving this way. in the midwest, there are a lot of population centers. i think we all compete with each other. we like to hold our own as much as possible. that there are a lot of people who, when they do graduate, they moved to chicago, kansas city and others. a lot of those folks in their 20's are now coming back home. i think a lot of people are looking at our city. it has big city amenities with a small-town feel weird i think that is attractive to a lot of people particularly those who want to raise families. erik: you mentioned millenials here do you really believe that the mindset of the millennial and his or her interest in
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deciding where to work is that much different than what it was like for you as a young adult, or me for that matter? mayor ballard: absolutely, no question about that. i have 220-year-olds as children -- i have two 20-year-olds as children feared i thieve -- i see that in them. when i was 16 i cannot wait to get my driver's license. they are not as worried about that kind of thing. they really are looking for a particular type of lifestyle. the good thing is that so any people are looking for what we call an authentic urban lifestyle. not just millenials, but seniors. but millenials want to move into the city and to have that urban experience. i think it is incumbent on mayors to provide that. stephanie: where do get the money to make yourself this modern, attractive hip cool city? mayor ballard: it is a matter of priorities. people are talking about indianapolis in those terms now, which is nice compared to 40
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years ago. it is about your priorities and what you want to build out. we have the first all-electric car sharing system in america going up. bike share is out there. focusing on neighborhoods and having unique neighborhoods is very important to every city as it should be, and we have been focusing on that. it is a matter of priority and how you spend it. we are lucky we have a good nonprofit in corporate sector. erik: i want to ask about the menace about bond market. -- i want to ask about the municipal bond market. you have to be watching what is going on in puerto rico and the risk of them the unexpected. you have some maturities coming up in indianapolis. how concerned are you? mayor ballard: not that concerned for we have great bond
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ratings are at one survey came out recently and said of the top 30 cities upon america we had the best bond rating. i am not that concerned. you are always worried about the next economic factor coming into play and how that will affect the ability for the bond market, if you will. right now, i think we are ok. stephanie: indianapolis mayor greg ballard, thank you for joining a spirit erik: coming up, the walmart shareholders meeting is happening today. we will take you there to find out the latest from our own olivia sterns. ♪
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they are conducting an internal probe, because there could have been money-laundering by russian clients. that is the essential. it may involve about $6 billion in transactions over about four years. we have details of concerns. transactions bought by russian clients in rubles through deutsche bank. simultaneous trades in london where being made in similar amounts in u.s. dollars. they are looking to see if the russians were laundering money in this way and it would not be obvious. an internal review is being done. officials have declined to comment. the bank of russia also does not have an immediate comment. we will bring you any reaction we get. this is according to people familiar with the matter. deutsche bank dropping in early trading. erik: thank you very much. another day and paradise -- not
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to we're talking -- the speculation is that buying shares in rubles in moscow or selling and buying for a similar amount in london in dollars will move money out of the country without alerting the authorities. stephanie: shady business. we do not know if they did it, but it is a problem they certainly do not want to be facing. let's move on. talking about walmart. the shareholder meeting is underway in fayetteville arkansas, right now. we sent olivia sterns out there. olivia, tell us, what do shareholders want from walmart? olivia: first of all, i love bentonville, and i do not appreciate being called an upper east side navin -- native to what big shareholders want to see is a marketable, more independent board. there have been a lot of calls from big shareholders for an
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independent chairman. the walden family is still the majority shareholder, owning 50.9% of the company. rob walton, the psion of the walton family, has been the executive chairman now for 23 years. at this meeting last year, he tapped greg pandered to be the executive vice chairman it he's is grandson in law of sam walton. we are looking out for any news of a shakeup on the board and perhaps more independence something of the likes of blackrock, institutional shareholder services have been calling for appearance stephanie: that is for the shareholders want. what is walmart focused on? olivia: walmart knows they did fix her the bread-and-butter business here in the u.s. we are speaking with a head of walmart u.s., and he has a couple big priorities. he knows he needs to fix fresh groceries.
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66% of their business. he needs to invest in employees and that is what they have been doing here at walmart is raising the minimum wage and investing in training employees. yesterday they announced they will relax the dress code. they are trying to do a lot for morale, and hopefully that will reduce -- that will help. they know they need to dial up the e-commerce business. it is currently just 2% of global sales from walmart. they have a lot of new initiatives in the pipeline. they are experimenting with shipping pads. stephanie: i know you love arkansas, so i am going to leave you there. erik: talking jobs when we return. ♪
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bonnie is on the case. bonnie: we have the news that walmart's war has elected the new chairman. this is partially set up. he is married to the granddaughter of sam walton. last year, he was elected of vice president to the board. he is 45 years old. he is been groomed for this for the last several years. he was running a venture firm in silicon valley for about 10 years, that he also serves as cfo of walmart japan. he joined the family by marrying the granddaughter of sam walton. at the annual meeting, the board has decided that it greg penner will become the new chairman. erik: handing the torch to the next generation. 45 years old. thank you very much for the latest on walmart. we are just a few minutes away from the opening bell in new york city, so we wanted to bring
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you three things moving the markets. the j.p. morgan asset management chief investment officer is with us. and joe weisenthal is here. joe, what is moving markets? joe: obviously, job spear the end of limit rate picked up a little bit, but who cares? that was probably a function of the labor force participation rate. the story is the strong may number wage growth. nothing not to like. you saw the move instantly in 10-year yields spiking appeared the recovery inflation, fed hike story -- erik: there is nothing not to like unless you are long the two-year bob. bob: you can put one up in the win column for the san francisco fed president. he has said the fed should be data-dependent. he said everything should be on the table. here is the june meeting coming up.
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it will be interesting what he says and what happens at that meeting now. the data is there you can also put one on the wash color for the secular stagflation nests, at least for today. i was a little bit on the high side of the average. i believe there is a bounce back from the weather of the first quarter. we have seen this movement before. we saw it last year. his other very depressed data in the first quarter. it bounced back in the second quarter. i think we are seeing the same thing. we will not know until the third quarter. >> there was that first half 2016 call looking so great. never two on my list is greece. this is interesting. once again, it looked like it was going to be this big push with all the big players getting involved and going for it to get a deal. here we are, and we are really
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nowhere, and greece is going to delay its initial payment to the imf. it is not really a default. but they're just does not seem to be any something could come out of nowhere, but we are just back at this point. stephanie: according to bloomberg, there doesn't seem to be a need for a deal. >> going into this week, they thought this is it, we got to get it done. stephanie: the fact that there isn't -- shouldn't that make you concerned? you know what, we're going to bundle it and i'm going to call vladimir putin. that does make me worried. >> i think there is cause to worry. they are clearlynk ultimately if a deal gets done, it is going to get done right at the deadline right at the wire. we still have a little time. erik: let us take a moment and go back to arkansas because our olivia sterns is on the ground
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now. olivia, tell us more about greg penner. olivia: this is not a big surprise. at this meeting last year, he was cap as a executive vice chairman. rob walton who has been executive chairman who has been chairman for 20 years. greg penner is a 45-year-old triathlete from california. he is said to bring a lot of technology experience to the walmart board. he has been on the board of walmart since 2008. he has had various jobs at walmart since 2005. he has invested the family's money out at drone capital. he has a stanford mba and has a sense down here that he is going to bring his california sensibilities to this arkansas retail giant. a lot of people are saying this is best because his tech
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experience can help push the company and e-commerce. stephanie: it is what you and i just mentioned. given the amount of products they sell and the price points should be a competitor to amazon. they want to be, but they're not yet. erik: do you buy that walmart is becoming -- i'm sorry, amazon is becoming more of a competitor to walmart with showrooms. stephanie: let us look at other movers this morning. i want to bring in julie hyman taking a look at what stocks are moving now that we have just opened. julie: it is amazing that we had this big jobs report hit this number coming in so much better than estimated. and the stock market is not seeing much movement. where we are seeing movement is in the bond market. i know that stephanie said we're going to look at stocks, but i did want to mention that 10 year because that is what we saw the movement. that big spike up in the yield at 2.1%.
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it looks like it is the highest this year. at one point, it was at its highest since late the terror. -- september. it is surprising we are not seeing more of a negative reaction from that in the stock market. maybe investors are trying away what is happening with rates on the one hand and on the other a strengthening economy. quickly to get the other big movers -- cardinal help a big deal. their shares are down 1.1%. it is making an acquisition of harvard drug group. it was privately held. 1.1 billion drug distribution deal. we're talking about that data breach. the u.s. government saying that china is behind it and releasing the information of personnel. when you get these breaches, you tended get the data security companies rising and that is where we are seeing palo alto networks and fire i are gaining. stephanie: julie, thank you.
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erik: there is an isolation for why stocks are flatlining. in fact, julie, more stocks are down. it is the financials with interest rates moving up. the only stocks rising today are financials. charles schwab cup to at the top. stephanie: what do you make of this, bob? bob: i think we are coming towards the end of the bond market. yields have been rising since january. erik: that is quite a call. bob: i'm not sure it is quite a call. the trait got pretty crowded. everyone piled into the queue each trade money being exported out of europe and japan. the selloff has been going for about the duration that we saw in the temper tantrum. oddly enough, the 10 year is starting from the same low-end yield at one and 5/8 and here are we to and the upside is 3%?
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i don't think so. i think all that cute you is still out there looking for home. there are now very good opportunities in the bond market. i think we will see it coming back. erik: we may yet again see a 200 point basis yield on the treasury? bob: we may see that. i think it will come down to everyone starting to estimate where the terminals said run rate will be. when you start to look at the fed beginning to lift interest rates, the markets start selling off and pricing in a lot of tightening. after the first couple tightening's of the market starts to estimate where the fed will get to. the curve tends to flatten out around the area. we think the first stopping point is about 1.75. bring the fed funds rate up to a zero real deal. erik: bob, you are staying with us. joe weisenthal, thank you.
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we need to take you now down to washington because the labor secretary is at the white house. mr. secretary, i'm sorry. you are at the labor department not the white house. the best thing that we can get from you right now is the administration's view on the job report. we know how investors feel about it. tell us what you and the presidency. >> this is the best jobs report of 2015. when you add in the upward adjustments from previous months, you are at 312,000 jobs. that is a very good number. you look at the wage growth than this is the best month for wage growth that we have seen since august of 2013. thomas: still a lot of work to do on which growth, but this is promising. you look at the various sectors and solid growth key important sectors. last month in auto sales, that
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was the best month that we have had in the year. auto sales are near record high. a lot of different bellwethers of an economy that continues to move in the right direction. a lot of work to do on wage growth. erik: what kind of work, mr. secretary? thomas: last month is not enough by any stretch. the fact that there is basically zero inflation right now is helpful in giving us will -- real wage growth. that is why the president talks all the time about raising the minimum wage. we talk about infrastructure investment. that is a great way to grow middle-class jobs to pay good wage. we invest a lot in upscaling. one of the best ways to raise your earnings is to get additional skills so that you can compete for better jobs. we do the stores of investment -- though sorts on investment and private skill. when you passed trade bills, what you know is that export
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related jobs on average pay something like 15% to 18% more. you got to places like washington state, a very trade dependent state, and you see that they have an abundance of really good export related jobs not only at boeing but at smaller companies that are involved in trade. these are the things that we are working towards so that we can continue to build an economy where we have sustained real wage growth. that is one of the biggest pieces of on business -- unfinished business. stephanie: do you believe that if the president gets fast track that it will create more jobs? many people think it will only take jobs away. thomas: in terms of the number of jobs that are created, that is an clear. -- unclear. what we know in the past is that the president set forth the double number of exports over the last five or six years and he did that. that created 1.7 million jobs. what we also know is that export related jobs pay better.
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in the aggregate roughly 18% more. when we talk about this issue of wage stagnation, one issue way is to create well-paying jobs. export related jobs are well-paying jobs, whether it is the meet packing industry when you're sipping more goods -- shipping markets to countries that used to have high tariffs, but don't have high tariffs. those of the ways that i think we can benefit from agreements like the transpacific partnership. bob: mr. secretary, you have to be pleased that the participation rate ticked up. you think we have seen the bottom there and this is the beginning of a trend? thomas: one month never makes a trans but i am pleased and you're correct that the labor force participation rate went up. sometimes people say, but tom, the unemployment rate pickup.
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the unemployment rate went up for good reason because more people are looking for work. so that is a good thing. when participation takes up that is a sign that people are confident that they can get a job. in the deaths of the great recession, there were roughly seven jobseekers for every job. now we're down to 1.7 jobseekers for every job. i'm not a math major but i would rather compete with one person for a job rather than with six people for a job. a lot of different measures, important measures of an economy that is moving a right direction. there is still slacked of. we can do even better. we can bring the unemployment rate down even more in the investments that the president is talking about in infrastructure and creating goods and export related jobs and raising the minimum wage. we are doing in overtime regulation that will help potentially millions of people who are working 60 hours a week get a raise.
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everything that we can do to help raise wages is what we are tried to do as we continue the momentum in this recovery. stephanie: we can always do better but do you think we are doing well enough that it is time to raise rates? thomas: i leave that up to the fed. i control what we can control here. what we are trying to do is invest in our human capital so they can compete for jobs of today and tomorrow. there are 5 million open jobs right now as we sit here having this discussion, stephanie. i tend to those or half a million are in the i.t. sector. we are in a lot of work doing investments or training since people can get i.t. jobs. less than half of these i.t. jobs that i'm talking about require a college degree. we are working with kids and developing depression -- apprenticeship programs. erik: mr. secretary, i'm sorry
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data from 2011 to 2015. the move follows a request by the bank of rupture -- russia to examine the stock trading of some client in the country. advertisers may be the real winners tomorrow. i'm talking about belmont when the american pharaoh is for the triple crown in the belmont stakes. nbc's sold most of its ads before castle sports fans part of the horse. many are poised to benefit from the massive ratings on. i do not know if you are going to watch belmont, but i would love to see american pharaoh went. we are not seen anyone win the triple crown and 37 years. even though this horse is not bread for the mile and a half distance. preakness was like us in army. rain was coming upside down, sideways, every direction. he crushed it. the owner lives in new jersey. i would love to see him win. you? erik: i'll be watching.
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move over pimco. there are some new wells in the bond market. apple, oracle, google, and if you other -- a few other cash buyers are here. >> there is a new king in the on market and he wears an apple watch and google glass and hangs out in reno. both got their cash management units in reno and they have so much cash that the cannot bring it to the u.s. for cast reasons so they are investing in the corporate bond market. stephanie: bob what does that mean to you? what does it do to liquidity? can you feel difference? bob: every time you backup and yield, there's a widening and spread. these big pools of capital are coming in.
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it's not only the central bank spending money. they are in the tech and farm industries. they are in these cash flow rich companies that have little capital. erik: what kind of structure does that have on the bond market? now that you have these new entrants spending hundreds of billions of dollars that just wasn't there before. bob: i think it adds a much-needed stabilizing force. to some extent we spend a lot of time looking at the decline of liquidity. that broker-dealer balance sheets have strong. that they cannot give us the counterparty exposure that we once can access. but the reality is that the corporate bond balance sheet now resides within the buy side. investors like us dominate that market. when we have needs to invest, it is nice to know that there are other counterparties out there with similar needs or potentially selling. nabila: what happens when rates
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go up and they get back into cash and they don't need corporate bonds anymore? bob: corporate bonds should still be yielding a bit more than cash. most of them are carrying them on advertising book costs. so is a very different dynamic. my guess is that they are not going to be sellers. they have new cash coming in all the time. they may let that accumulate in liquidity funds to let their bond portfolios run off. erik: bob, we thank you. chief investment officer for jpmorgan. also thank you, nebula. stephanie: before we leave, it is time to reveal today's your book when it. the man behind the game. it is see year's ceo and chairman eddie lanford. there you have it. he graduated from none other than roslyn high school on the north shore of rhode island --
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long island. it was not john travolta. it was eddie lanford. -- lampert. as he dance because he showed looks like a dancer -- does he look like dance because he looks like a dancer? i've got to say congratulations to sherwin noorian. i would've liked to see more flickered -- flare. stephanie: "market makers," goodbye. ♪
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first of all, why was it such a surprise that they decided to do this? what spurred this decision do you think? eric: you may have thought that blackrock map and first, but they receive the quota in april the chinese government. they worked it out and included that a shares. when i went back and thought about it, the etf that is going to include a shares when it came into the market 10 years ago, it shook things up with a low expense ratio. it is not like vanguard can't shake things up. they also included small caps. they sort of expanded the index in the etf emerging markets have become more correlated with the u.s. market. now you have a shares and small caps and it is going to have more correlation benefit. if you are an owner of a vanguard emerging markets fund which has $70 billion, that a
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shares will start to trickle in by the end of the year and will end up at a 5% weighting, which is equal to $3.5 billion for julie:. julie: in the meantime, there are already etf that already include a shares. eric: of the next several years, it should go up to 10%. there are etf's way ahead of the curve. julie: cap. eric: this is what most emerging market funds will look like. 20 percent are these. china is so massive that at full weight once the regulations keep dissipating and the walls fall down that this is what it will look like. it is a low pricey. i think it is 80 basis points. if you want to be where all
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those going to be in a couple of years, kemp will do it. julie: what is the advantage? if china is a big chunk of that why don't you buy a china etf? eric: there is a deutsche bank china a shares. and a lot of people have been doing it. it is way risk years. if you just buy a shares this thing is very volatile. for people trying to front run just be warned. julie: stay with us. "bloomberg market day" coming up. ♪
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we will look at what it means for consumer spending in the retail sector. erik: 4 million u.s. government workers how to information stolen. authorities say the corporate is the chinese government. matt: it was a record year on broadway. this year, the industry celebrates the best of the best with the tony awards. we are going to talk to the organizer. ♪ matt: good morning. i am matt miller. erik: i'm erik schatzker. matt: let us get to the market check because we had a big number. you want to look at how it has affected markets. equity markets have not moved much at all. the numbers came out an hour before the market opened. erik: there is an equity market started the equity
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