mark: john: i mark halperin. john:and i'm john heilemann. i hope you book your hostels in advance. ♪ happy national veterans day, mark. in our lineup tonight, the supreme court defying, but first, german dining. as the bare naked ladies might say, "what a week" until jeb bush announces he is running for president.

friday and saturday, he is in capital of the stone hit, and according to wikipedia, a major cultural step -- estonia, and according to wikipedia, amya major cultural center. mark: this does not seem as aggressive as barack obama' overseas trips in 2008. i think at this point he has set -- he is set up to be not very ambitious and maybe to get pictures, but i don't keep will advance his cause. john: given the way the other republican rivals have performed on their foreign trips so far, which is to say that they either made mistakes or were hidden. he's in the position to take great opportunity -- make great opportunities. if he takes questions and hit the homerun, he can say that he

has been around the world and he feels these questions and note -- has fielded these questions and no one has done that yet. if he comes out and makes a full throated defense of some things that are associated with his brother, that could be true -- that could be big trouble. mark: i would be surprised if he comes out of this very much advance. i will not be surprised if he comes out of this a bit dinged up. he could use a very big boost. and this taking the foreign trip, even the carefully planned once stuff can go wrong. it's a big risk. john: and as we've noted to me as not handled the foreign policy stuff very well so far. the degree of risk is high, but the opportunity if you were to do well, could be serious. mark: we'll see.

hillary clinton will make her re-announcement the saturday at a big rally in roosevelt island of which is a slender part of manhattan floating in the east river. when she entered the race the first time by video, they were not so great circumstances with swirling questions around e-mails and her foundation. now she's planning a flashy kiss her off -- a flashy kick off this weekend. it is the face of more bad news. here is the roundup from the clinton bad news gazette. bob rice has to stop getting paid speeches. her national favorability numbers are going in the wrong direction. bernie sanders almost beat her in a recent poll. and questions are still swirling about her foundation. and there is the house committee investigation of benghazi that is trying to get her to be

subpoenaed as well. will she take the tramway or the subway? the other big question with headwinds as strong as she did when she got in by video, how will she do in this big announcement? john: she should take the tramway. it's much more scenic. she has headwinds and they have not been relenting. i think, though, with a big announcement on roosevelt island and if she does what they say she's going to do, come out with substance and policy then she's been at her best so far in his proto-campaign when she is talking about substance. this will give her the opportunity to do exactly what they have planned for her. it will make policies that are popular with a large part of the democratic party. mark: the first part of the announcement, she was invisible

because of the controversy, and the two best days were the immigration speech and criminal justice, and then the third one when she did the thing on voting rights. while the headwinds and the swirl of controversy continues she can fill the void and create her own news. john: and there was a story in the wall street journal today about jed epstein. i think she decided what policy cart she wants to play and when she plays a confidently, it puts her in a good place. mark: she's in a stronger position, and republicans realize it. john: germany has quite a lineup this week. jeff is going there and apparently his opening act as president obama, who took questions today. he was asked about the supreme court ruling soon on obamacare and he projected that it will not against him. to support his argument, he has

a handful of things that the white house calls facts. they actually true, or just truth-y? president obama: 50 million people have health insurance and new roman majority are satisfied. it hasn't had an adverse effect on people who already has health insurance. the only affected as had on those who already have it is that they will not be prevented from getting insurance if they have a pre-existing condition. the costs have come in substantially lower than even our estimates about how much it would cost. health care inflation overall as continue to be asked some of the lowest levels in 50 years. none of the predictions about how this would work would -- have come to past. john: we wondered how to those things work, so we asked works alex wayne. he covers health care.

he said for the most part they are true, or at least mostly true. i'm sure the rnc will disagree with it and claim that the numbers are all cooked or whatever. given those facts, how strong is president obama's hand if he gets an adverse ruling from the supreme court? mark: i think it is still pretty strong. there are still questions about rising premiums and you still be people who do not like via formal care act, but the poll numbers suggest that people like it and it has grown well. and the costs are not so far overall exploding. in the end, because republicans still do not have unity about what to do, they may still have to say they will fight it out in the election. john: and at the big thing. president obama's hand is strong for the reasons you just said, but it's also the case that the republican hand is very weak. having spent years telling the base they want to repeal and

teardown obamacare, if this adverse ruling comes out on basically a technicality that they will throw the entire health care system into chaos, the republicans, it will be incumbent on them to have an alternative. that is the one thing they have not had this entire time. we hate obamacare, but they have not put anything forward that is as solid. mark: it is hard to figure out what to do. it's hard to come up with a plan without the trigger having already been pulled. the republicans -- they will have to do some soul-searching about the court. john: and as they say, disarray in the health care market is not going to rebound to the republican benefit. mark: for six years, we've seen only fleeting glimpses between obama and joe biden. it is a relationship that has been forged in moments of

triumph and tragedy. on saturday a triumphant speech. it came through as the president spoke about what it is like to be a biden. president obama: we do not know how long we've got here. we don't know when fate will intervene. we cannot discern god's plan. michelle and i, and sasha and melia, we have become part of the biden plan. we are honorary members now. and the biden family rule applies, we are all -- always here for you. we always will be my word as a biden. mark: it was an extra very service. the president's usual -- eulogy

was not just pro forma. afterward, the vice president stood up and basically demanded a hug. that embrace symbolizes the relationship that you and i have written about. particularly when beau biden for scott take a few years ago and -- first got sick a few years ago and the vice president rushed to be within. the president of late a lot of upset over that. -- the president displayed a lot of upset over that. john: they've had their differences, but they have found the spot. one of them once said, no one thinks they are fake. whether you like them or not, they are not phony. beau biden, one of the things that helped him to understand president obama, because they were of the same generation, and he understood him in a kind of trio way that helped him get it.

the closeness is genuine. mark: and for the president to eulogize your son at a time when you need to be lifted up, it's genuine. john: and michelle and dr. jill biden and have come very close over the years. it's genuine. you do not see it that much in politics. mark: very lovely. john: coming up, richard haas to go on the line for jeb bush in his europe trip. ♪

mark: our guest tonight has the big world in his pants. richard has, thanks for coming back on. jeb bush is on this trip. right now, if you were to define the bush doctrine, as in jeb bush about foreign policy, what would you say it is?

richard: it is hard to answer that in some ways about a sitting president after six years. i don't think that the right question. you want to say how comfortable is this person and how knowledgeable is this person? this trip is to do just that. mark: can you put them anywhere on the spectrum? is he anything to you at this point? richard: it is too soon. you could cherry pick this statement or that statement and that with him on this spectrum but i find it hard to categorize him. or anyone else yet. he has been given -- he has given one big speech on foreign policy. to your mind, as the substance person, if you were going to be a proxy for the voters what questions would you want him to answer to help people understand his worldview? richard: a couple of things. the philosophy of how america

should act alone in the world with others, the multilateralism versus unilateralism. and do we want that united states to go around the world to change the internal nature of other societies? that is a big thing. and the priorities of foreign policy. where does it fit vis-a-vis domestic policy? i think the answers to those questions would give you a good guide. john: -- mark: if you look at what happened when he gave his foreign-policy speech and he said "i'm my own man." what are other areas where either specific decisions he made or things about his foreign-policy record or point of view that you think jeb bush will face tough choices not just because they are brothers, but

because he was the last republican president? richard: i don't think there'll be that much of it. a lot of it will be what is in the inbox? for all we know it could be what happens in venezuela, or what happens between the chinese and japanese midsouth china sea -- in the south china sea. or maybe russia will not be satisfied with ukraine and there will be something else. mark: if you look at the republican electorate or the american people in general, any republican candidate whether jeb bush or anyone else needs to define the bush doctrine on that? richard: one thing that could come up in north korea. imagine in the next 18 months that l intelligence comes out -- that intelligence comes out that says they have weapons that

could reach the west coast of the u.s. it is possible it could be in the debates. are you prepared to live with that or would you want to launch a preventive attack or a preemptive attack if what receive warning if north korea might be readying a launch? john: he will be in germany and estonia and poland over the course of this trip. obviously, prudent and russia will be -- could sin and russia will be big -- putin and russia will be big topics. what are you looking for him to say about it? richard: ukraine and arming them and so forth. secondly pressure from nato. and more broadly, how we try to close the gap in capabilities. what is more juicing is how you

take a robust line against russia without putting them in isolation. how do you keep open the channels to talk with russia about syria or iran, and at the same time pressure and sanction them over ukraine? that is where gets close to governing. you want to put pressure, but you still have to work with them. john: as a political matter it seems you could not be too hawkish when he comes to puyttin. are there other issues that we are talking about? richard: in governing, you have to make trade-offs. just as tomorrow we could have to turn to russia to deal with a terrorism issue, let's say, syria, there are more than 1000 people from chechnya in syria. it's possible that vladimir putin wakes up and says we have a real problem on our hands and i do not want them to continue to go to syria. how do you deal with that? mark: h richardaass, thank you.

-- richard hasass, thank you. we'll be right back. ♪

john: remember joni ernst? she is the one who castrate space. over the again she held a cattle -- a cattle call. we captured the site and smells of what senator ernst hopes will be an annual event. >> i'm in iowa where they have designed a t-shirt for the physically -- a t-shirt specifically for out-of-town media, and where joni ernst is designing an event for republican and presidential hopefuls, who are sometimes one in the same. the freshman senators's inaugural event is called roast and ride.

although i would have called it this. i would love to mount the camera to one of these motorcycles, and mike vincent for iowa city is here with something else. >> i'm guessing maybe 350 to 400 now. that will be a first for me getting a police escort on a motorcycle. >> that was a great ride. that is what makes the ride a lot of times, the curves and the trees and shade, the scenery. ♪

>> i love it. camouflage shoes. she's just a note -- an old iowa girl and that the kind of person i respect. >> i will people want to see their candidate reach out and shake their hand. they want to ask them questions face-to-face. >> good to see you. we'll be watching you on tv. ♪ >> i just got to shake hands with scott walker, and i respect all of his policies. i think he is a godly man, and that means a lot to me. >> we are cooking enough food for 2000 people. >> the roast and ride is the

conservative replacement of the democratic event that ended last year with senator tom harkin retirement. i have to say, this event is more fun. the steak fry didn't have a bouncy castle. just in the nick are students from nearby our state university. >> we had to make sure we would have the day off of work to be here. >> i'm interested in seeing what rick perry has to say. >> of the seddon -- seven headliners, scott walker is and who has not declared his eventual run. >> i love if andrew knows how to castrate a pig, ride a hall, and cut the pork from washington, d.c. >> they each get a quick six minutes on the state. it's like 20 exceeding speed --

2016 speed dating. >> i'm happy to come here so we can make a good decision when we vote. >> i could stand behind any of these candidates. >> agreed. >> whoever can beat hillary. >> that's what it's about, whoever can beat hillary. >> the crowd got out of there pretty quickly after huckabee's speech. but they will be back soon. the iowa straw poll is just two months away. same fairgrounds. >> will be there? >> definitely. >> i would love to see them participate and visit iowa as much as possible, too. >> we're ready. >> senator, before we go, i have to know did you at least consider calling this event "hogs and hogs"? >> [laughter]

no because we want to welcome our honda and yamaha two. -- and yamaha, too. >> hogs and hogs. >> [laughter] that would have been good, too. >> thank you. god bless you. john: griffin "hog" and then, do us a favor and say that some big -- save us some pig . be right back. ♪

♪ john: we've got to meet settings that coming up. rick santorum is here in video. and john kasich the following day. and from the sentiment in utah -- the summit in utah, he'll be

here with mark halperin. mark: remember, we are on twice today at 5:00 and 8:00. see you tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

alix: we are melissa way from the closing bell. this is the bloomberg market day, and i'm alix steel. ♪ you are looking at stocks deteriorating a little bit as we head into this close. the dow now off by 82, and the s&p off by 13. you are looking at a dow closing at a two-month low, the biggest three-day losing streak since march. w