dow 10,000. can you get ready for the doubt 20,000 hysteria? and maybe finally women's soccer can fill seats in the stadium. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." it is friday, june 12. with me, vonnie quinn and brendan greeley. women's soccer. brendan: usa! usa! today we played sweden, a powerhouse in international women's soccer because they have a commercial league. tom: i do not care. why should i watch? brendan: because the u.s. players go to sweden all the time, so this is a personal and competitive match. we are going to get out of the round in germany is going to win anyway. vonnie: can i just say that we are going to fill a stadium? tom: let's get to top headlines. here is vonnie quinn.

vonnie: it sounds like the time for diplomacy has ended in the greek crisis. greece was given less than 24 hours to end the deadlock over bailout money. eu officials tell bloomberg news all scenarios are being examined as greece refuses to come to light. we are learning this morning that the hack attack on federal personnel records was a lot worse than first thought. hackers may have stolen data on as many as 40 million people more than triple the number reported last week. the u.s. has blamed chinese hackers. officials are considering a number of responses one likely to target data in hackers' servers. the house is expected to vote on the fast-track trade bill today, and there is an all-out fight on both sides. union backed democrats are trying to find ways to defeat the bill.

they say it would kill jobs and wages. one of twitter posco founders will try to get the company back on track. ceo in the costello -- ceo to costello has stepped down. investors are endorsing the change. shares of twitter arising premarket. colstolo said leaving was his idea. >> i initiated conversations with the board at the end of last year about ceo change. and then at our meeting last week, and my decision to step down we agreed now is the right time to begin this transition.

vonnie: he also said twitter is focused on remaining in independent company, what he says the board will evaluate any offer. do not count out apple when it comes to tv, according to the dish network chairman. in an exclusive interview betty liu said apple was late to the game. >> i do not think it ends until next year. i think we will probably see multiple entrance into the cable industry at some point. funnyvonnie: in the nba finals, golden state beat cleveland, to tie the game at 2-2. steph curry scored 22 points for the warriors. lebron james was held to 20 in

this game. there was a scary moment when he lost his balance and crashed into a courtside camera after getting fouled. game five is sunday in oakland. sorry, guys -- tom: he stitched up his head and took a -- brendan: i wish we could stay up late enough to watch this. the warriors used smaller players to get the game faster and it really worked. tom: let's gated tate a check -- let's get a data check. i'm going to call it quiet. movement in the european markets of the greece news the euro-dollar, 1.1187. after a volatile week in yields, looking at the german bond, near 1%. that is still a big deal .9%.

a second day of weaker new zealand dollar at point 9864. -- at .9864. let's continue the discussion off the bloomberg terminal and the dollar. china and some of our secondary partners -- way back 30 years -- dollar strength dollar strength, and then we had to do something, so we did it three blocks over where vonnie quinn shops. then we are talking about the rubin dollar, the strong dollar associated with the late 1990's. mark chandler, looking for a redux with this. brendan that is an outlier call. brendan: there is deep unease in the late 1990's. is there a set of circumstances

that will cause another -- tom: there is a lot of writing on that. it is so much more fractious now post-world war ii. there is a look at a mark chandler call from brown brothers. central banks continue to force the news flow. look at china, where there is discussion over action this coming weekend to support their economies. seth masters is chief investment officer at sanford reinstein. he understands the linkage of china -- at sanford bernstein. he understands the linkage of china. seth masters actually stuck to the trenches. you guys still write the block books, write?

seth: we do. tom: you have an unique ability on china. you talk there years ago. what is the biggest difference between the china then and the china now? seth : my question years ago after being there in the 1980's was would they be -- living standards in china has the average person basically almost quintupled. at some point it has end because the business model in china was dependent on export driven growth. at this point the amount of investment in china is absurdly high by any standard, even in china, and export share of china is extremely high. that had to change no matter what. brendan: with china having reached this status, are the in the middle?

are they making the transition to buying stuff, or are they stuck making stuff? are they going to transition well? tom: i think that -- seth: as we see it, they have the right strategy. to try to focus on domestic consumption driven growth. that is the opportunity for them. the challenge is that means they have to restructure the whole business model. adapts to slower and more persistent and more value added -- tom: to your point, is mr. ma the point to spring that consumption? seth: china has an opportunity to essentially take advantage of leapfrog technology. the problem is, no one has ever done it before.

another problem with china is that the demographic transition is happening as well. so the chinese labor force is going to shrink dramatically over the next 10 years by probably over 100 million people. brendan: we tend to talk numbers, particularly if you do not understand china, which i do not. what is the cultural shift that has to take place? seth: i think a lot of this is not only culture but regulation. chinese people are not disinclined to consume. they have a system where there was a lot of forced savings. as the chinese economy liberalize is, you will see they will grow but is it self-sustaining? will we see it at the 6%, 7% real level that we have seen? tom: long-term payrolls is 144 million. vonnie: what i was going to ask is there was a huge boost

recently and retail investors are getting more involved rid how do you read those gains in chinese stocks? seth: dirty socks have gone from bid being -- chinese stocks have gone from being -- there is real estate, which is basically being subdued by the anticorruption and other controls. bank deposits, which are not keeping up with inflation, or stocks. we have seen an explosion -- they're buying stocks and even going on margins to buy stocks. that is probably not the same people consuming. you have to be careful in china.

some stocks in china have gotten absurdly expensive. tom: we will get to his very interesting paper. brendan: we are going completely -- without twitter question. jack dorsey is back. he will try to look for a ceo for twitter. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

tom: good friday morning. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: a prison worker will be reportedly charged with several crimes in the upstate new york jailbreak. the woman admitted giving the

convicts power tools. the two killers are in their seventh day on the run. local towns are in a state of virtual lockdown. goldman sachs wants to get back into the game. bloomberg news reports goldman is investing in software trading infrastructure to keep up with competitors. and we have gotten a glimpse of the first commercial version of virtual reality. facebook has unveiled its oculus goggles. eventual, that eventually, oculus will be designed to receive computer commands. brendan: and they fixed the technology so you no longer

get nauseated when using them. tom: this is the decline of western civilization. brendan: this is just kids doing things you do not understand. this is rock 'n roll. tom: i remember throwing one box down the stairs. i actually did that. brendan: on the board but not running the company, dick costol o. now he is out. here's the only number that now matters. twitter 302 million. facebook am 1.40 4 billion. so there is going to be a new ceo, jack dorsey for the interim. what needs to be fixed? >> there is a lot, but it has to start with products. in the context of social media and facebook with 1.4 billion

users, they need to figure out a way to grow their user base from 300 million, and engage consumers so that they stay on twitter longer. brendan: i read a couple of different times last night a post from one person who had an early stake in twitter. his point is that twitter is intimidating to new users. is there value in that? >> there is. just getting on to twitter, of 300 million users it is a big number but 500 million see twitter every day but do not log on. that is a problem for twitter because if you are not longed on to their platform, they cannot sell advertising. tom: i want to drive this forward. out of "the new york times,"" --

tom: when does google buy them? >> quite frankly, google has never gotten social right. it has not resonated with the marketplace. tom: it is terrible. seth: it does not really help. >> one could argue that is a big hole in the google portfolio. twitter could fix it, but a lot of people say twitter is probably not big enough yet. tom: jack dorsey steve jobs -- who is going to make the decision? brendan: i remember when dick costolo first started, one of

the things that did not make sense at the time is that they did not seem to understand where they were in terms of making revenue or growing their user base. tom: we call that running the company. he was going to run the company for mr. dorsey? brendan: the cfo has taken a big responsibility. the question is do you give it to someone like that, and operational person, or do you give it to a technologist can speed innovation and grow advertising. a lot of people would like to see dorsey stay because he is a visionary. let him be the more steve jobs. tom: are they selling to google? that is the money question. >> i don't think so. if you talk to twitter, they seem to have another big iteration left to go.

another big leg up. brendan: there is an ipo, but they are not really a fully grown company. >> i do not agree with that. there is real revenue and profitability. there are 300 million users. they are beyond the venture stage. the question is, are they a niche medium like facebook? vonnie: every event, it is twitter that i go on. i do not go on to facebook for an event. >> can i advertise my brand, my product echo with advertisers, it has not resonated yet. tom: did you talk to james murdoch last night? >> i did not. brendan: chris sacca's advice is that -- we are going to stick

with paul sweeney because we are going to talk about fox in a second. evidently something happen there yesterday. our twitter question of the day -- how would you fix twitter? ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance. he is 84. let's go to the morning must-read. the reality that the murdoch family faces -- the murdoch family wealth is heavily tied up in the value of the shares they own and it is less than you

think. so even though nobody can stop mr. murdoch from turning the company over to his sons, the murdochs need to maintain the confidence of public markets to maintain their family." is this just about mr. murdoch 's 84th? seth: he has been grooming his sons for over a decade now to take over the entertainment company, foxconn and news corp.. rupert is the ultimate media mogul, and he is passing the reins to the next generation. tom: paul sweeney is with us, and seth masters as well. do you have to get on those wonderful cash flows? seth: you have to be careful about where you pick and choose to be. i think the story, ironically

is about something we also do which is family wealth planning. we work a lot with ceo's. tom: mr. murdoch, if you are listening this morning, a b bernstein. seth: does that involve letting the family continue to run the company or not? you need to keep a lot of eggs in one basket, and that dramatically increases your risk. paul: i think he will have chase carey there for at least a year as his advisor. the question is, can he step up? he has done a good job before. he has been involved but now is the time to really execute. brendan: challenges that would

james has to do is turn in empire into a company. tom:paul: rupert is an empire builder. he is not interested in short-term gains. brendan: let's talk about something that is a much bigger mess than the fox succession planning. it is greece, of course. on twitter we are asking about twitter. tell us how you fix it. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

tom: good beautiful friday morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance peter: here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: greece is being told to

stop demands. the alexis tsipras is being accused of dragging his feet on debt agreements. the two sides are nowhere close to a deal, according to a spokesman. we are here from the german spokesman saying the imf has not broken off greek talks. hackers stole data of a lot more federal employees that was first reported. as well -- as many as 40 million may have been affected, and officials are considering a number of responses. one might be targeting the data in hackers' servers. a verdict in a case will be issued by a french court. the former head of the -- the strauss con case -- he is accused of pimping. the mexican government made

trades with seven banks to lack in -- to lock in higher prices. president henrique pena that tell says the company has been hurt. >> i think in general, for emerging economies, we have a lot of problems. we face enormous volatility from the economic wars and especially for new mexico -- and especially for mexico. vonnie: he also reiterated his pledge to balance the budget by 2017 and to avoid tax increases. dinosaurs roar back to life today in theaters. it is the debut of "jurassic world." the movie is getting the widest release ever. ticket sales are expected to top $125 million. tom: is it any good?

brendan: it is the only value to our morning show. we can say, "let's hit a matinee, guys." is it any good? it is chris pratt on a motorbike being pursued by dinosaurs. you do not have to ask if it is any good. that is not the point. tom: let's get back to the greek drama. headlines across the bloomberg terminal -- they are absolutely surreal. one leader looks for the need for high intensity. another says where there is will, there is way. one of our correspondents worked out a glass half-full -- full on the left, full on the right. hans nichols joins us. who needs what to happen before

we get to monday echo hans: what we are waiting for is some sort of credible proposal from greece. that is what all the officials are saying. the german government is briefing on this, saying they need something new from greece. the most important thing that has happened today has not come out of the politicians' mouths. broadcasters in germany say 51% of germans want greece to leave the euro. only one -- only 41% want them to stay in. this shows me how much the public debate has taken a toll on the german public. the german public is ready to let greece go. that includes merkel's calculations. brendan: hans, you are an amazing reporter, but in the last four months, frankly i have run out of things to ask you. i'm turning it over to seth masters. seth: what do you think in the

short run will happen if this is the ultimatum the last ultimatum, and things break? hans: because the imf is saying a technical default will happen until a couple of months later you are also hearing now the different definition of a default is a commercial default. so that means if they miss these imf payments, there could be some way to rescue things. in my mind, that is just a clever way -- the universal way they can expand the deadline on this -- as i said before, and first rule of covering a greek deadline, they can always kick this down further. so i am loathe to answer that directly. the teams -- they seem to keep shirking the deadline. tom: academic heavyweights are saying when is the restructuring going to occur?

what is the catalyst to get to a bill rhodes like restructuring? hans: you need some sort of deal on having short-term targets real. no one in germany denies the fact, with exception of the few folks on the right, that you need to have this mountain of debt. what sort of accounting trick do you use that is more palatable to the german public? there is a very important story in a mass publication tabloid this morning, that they say angela merkel's government is planning an exit but they are also talking about debt restructuring. the idea that there is a debt restructuring conversation in berlin -- brendan: we can get lost in the tick-tock of what being -- what is being asked in the counterproposal. at how much of this is about pride about not being able to

be seen to lose? hans: there could be some of that, but in athens it is more than just pride. it seems to be what -- rollback austerity problems, which they think is inflicting pain. angela merkel indicates that she is willing to do something, and she did not seem overly worried about precedents. precedents and pride can be conflated. the presidents issue seems to be imported -- important with the imf. they do not want to establish a precedents where they are soft on debt negotiations. brendan: hans nichols in berlin, doing humans work on a story. i can already say we are coming back to you on monday because there will still be a greek crisis monday. coming up, of course germany tied with norway today. yesterday in the women's world cup. i know you watched it. i did. tom: no one cares.

brendan: people do care and i am going to show tom why after the break. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance peter: we are sportive this morning and we have a sportive best chart. brendan: i came to work and i had to explain why the women's world cup matters. that is the subject of today's "single best chart." this is what we're looking at. the fat bars are non-world cup. the white bars are non-world cup -- the white bars or world cup years. world cup attendance has soared. fox news is running at they have a $15 million campaign on this. they are going into elementary

schools. it is working. one of the things that you notice when you are watching the games is that there is attendance that is incomparable to attendance at the other games. vonnie: can i just point out that it is in canada? brendan: it helps in canada. that is a conceivable trip. it is a little harder thinking about going to brazil. tom: very good. we move from women's soccer to a more difficult story. this is a follow on from the former head of the imf dominique strauss can't. -- dominique strauss-kahn. i am going to call it an unseemly matter in new york city. what would you call that? brendan: it is all like that. the ultimate outcome of the trial is not what matters, it is what gets dragged out about your

character during the trial. it is hard to imagine before he was arrested on the tarmac in the u.s. he was a possible candidate for president in france. that is not going to happen. tom: this is not a normal u.s. judicial process. there is a french way to do this. brendan: you asked me, and i wish i had a better answer than napoleonic code. tom: there is a whole different media take on how they do this. vonnie: things like slander and libel are completely different. you cannot say anything about anybody in europe, where here you can say quite a lot. brendan: too many people have done their own tell-awlslls and gone to newspapers. tom: and you wonder seriously if the whole story is over.

dominique strauss-kahn acquitted. vonnie: 16 limited edition cans are being released. why these rappers? because they are all being celebrated for honest self-expression and being true to themselves, according to the sprite press release. brendan: i suspect they are being celebrated because they agreed to a contract. vonnie: i am supposed to represent. brendan: it almost circles back in on itself. tom: this next one is almost dominique strauss-kahn in nature. vonnie: sexist comments that women should only work --

working with -- tim hunt's comments. tom: there it is. it is a hole. brendan: i asked for these photos to be included today because my wife, who is spending a lot of time in a lab, thinks they are hilarious. it is amazing. vonnie: last photo -- laverne cox made an impromptu appearance in times square. she headed down to see for herself. the season three of "orange is the new black" is set to appear on friday. brendan: do we really believe

that this is an accident? tom: there is almost too much quality good stuff on tv. brendan: i am taking a breather after "madmen." vonnie: we want to say a very special goodbye and good luck to our top photo editor in chief. brendan: the photos are amazing every morning. all the photos that made tom happy. tom: yeah. eric, get out of here. lexi is better. this is a brilliant paper by a bee bernstein. a -- by ab bernstein. stay with us from this friday. this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪

tom: summer is finally here. maybe we will hit 90 in the 10 days or so, but it is lovely in new york city. of course, captured by baseball.

a wonderful friday as well. the perspective of the world. let's get to top headlines. vonnie: france has formerly opened a criminal investigation into the crash of the germanwings airliner. deciding whether any person was to blame for failing to monitor the copilot's mental health. evidence that the copilot saw dozens of doctors in the five years before the crash. a new report from zillo shows a weak point in the housing market. less than half what it was three years ago, but zillo says a healthy housing market would have a 2% underwater rate rather than a 15% underwater rate. the racing presidents -- the customs characters of washington lincoln, taft, and teddy roosevelt run around the

field. last night they were joined by president obama -- "i challenge them to a race." brendan: and teddy roosevelt never wins. vonnie: those are your top headlines. tom: we go to peter cook. brendan is right now the big vote on trade? brendan: it is the big vote. we do not know what will happen. the president having a huge problem dragging his own party behind him. tom: let's look forward to the next hour of "bloomberg surveillance." peter cook from washington, it is a showdown, bitter. then we moved to greece. the drama continues. a very important guest will join us with terrific perspective on mr. dorsey and twitter.

we are thrilled to have brad stone with us and exclusive to "bloomberg surveillance" this morning. this is really important. the work is from ab bernstein. rule one of investment strategy is beware of extrapolating into the future, a strip will simple extrapolation, a complex fundamental effort. have respect for the on for seen. seth masters is the chief investment officer at ab bernstein. we are going to dangerously extrapolate the dow 20,000. we had 4, 5, 6 wonderful years. your research says not so much that it is over but that it is unlikely to continue. seth: i think that is exactly right. we have been discussing the same

topic three or four years ago. the dow was around 12,000, and we did not know if we could envision 20,000 for the foreseeable future. it is likely to happen well with the decade. at this point, to me, the question in the next few years is do we hit 20,000, it is how many times do we train through it? tom: exactly. this chart shows what we did at 10,000 as well. we bumped along. the initial force comes from earnings. that comes from cash flow. does that initial force go away or drift away as we go ever higher? seth: cash flows rebounded very strongly from the low in 2008. for the first three years of the recovery it was the strong earnings that were driving the market up. the pe's were declining during that time.

people were so skeptical. in the last 2.5 years, pe's have gone low -- from low to slightly above norms. going forward, it will have to earn the next step of the way. we think that will be a slower process. returns will be much more modest. high single digits is a good guess. probably six or 7%. there will be a lot more volatility. volatility for the last four years has been unusually low. that is a live because of central-bank action essentially suppressing risk. now that they are stepping back we will see the return to normal, which is a lot higher. brendan: companies are waiting much later to go public. all the growth is happening in the early stages of investments. before they hit the open markets. is that period when there was an amazing growth of new markets in

the publicly traded areas -- is that over? seth: i do not think it is over. it is happening because the money is there. there are huge pools of money, and we can invest -- it is very generous. why wouldn't you do that? tom: the backstory -- we are up to our eyeballs in money, in equities, bonds, whatever. we are up to here in cash. seth: what is likely to happen in the next few years is you will see growth be very moderate but continue in the united states probably 2.5% growth on average. plus you add inflation and dividend deals, you get yourself to a return on stocks to five-and-a-half, six and a half 7%. that is not in a string

forecast. it is also not the only thing we can envisage. we are very much worried about the downside cases because we think of investment planners as only as good as in that market. tom: a ceo will not accept single digit growth. he will have pressure from the board to do better. companies will be high single digit, double digit. how do you select those? how do you find those? seth: we think one of the big stories in the next five years will be a major shift from the last view. going back, all you had to do is predict whether the dow or the s&p were going to be up. i think in the next five years we will see active managers with real conviction who are picking winners versus losers. the indices will not be skyrocketing anymore and distinguishing which are the right companies is going to

matter. brendan: does bernstein have a call on what equities will look like in the u.s.? seth: we think the most likely scenario is that we will see growth of about 2.5%. population growth in the u.s. is pretty good, almost 1%. that provides some inertia, some tailwind, which most other countries do not have. on top of that, productivity is likely to continue to grow as well. this is a big debate, including internally. the best bet for growth will be somewhere around 2%. brendan: that is a big call. interesting. tom: thank you so much. let's look at the forex report. quiet this morning, except the euro is weaker. this is the tumults coming out of the surreal headlines.

1.1184, out of the euro. new zealand is weaker. we have another hour "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: twitter rings back a fallen

founder, like steve jobs at apple. jack dorsey returns to salvage the company. the summer heat is washington politicians must vote on trade legislation. it will be a very close vote. saturday and then monday, clinton and bush entered the presidential sweepstakes. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, june 12. i'm tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley, and as always, we are talking world cup soccer with women. they play sweden. brendan: i am excited about it my girls are excited about it. my girls are so immersed in princess right now, it is amazing to see them get excited about athletes. we are still trying to get out of the group round. if we beat sweden, we get out of the group round. if not, we have to figure out how to go to nigeria.

tom: here are top headlines of vonnie quinn. vonnie: turning to greece -- talks are turning into ultimatums in the greek debt crisis. the european union is giving greece 24 hours to come up with a plan its creditors can accept. eu officials say also in areas are being considered, including the possibility of greece leaving the euro. imf negotiators walked out of talks, but germany's finance team says it does not mean they are giving up. we are learning this more than hackers who attacked federal computers did more damage than first believed. they stole the data of up to 40 million government workers. thousands are expected to vote last -- this morning on a trade bill, and there is an all-out push by both sides.

union bank democrats are trying to defeat the bill. they say it would kill jobs and hurt wages. in a rare occurrence republicans are supporting the president. one of twitter's cofounders will try to get the company back on track. ceo dick costolo is stepping down, being replaced on an interim basis by jack dorsey. investors like the change. shares of twitter are rising premarket. costolo says leaving was his idea. dick costolo: i initiated conversations with the board on ceo succession, and following discussions with the full board at our february meeting and our meeting last week, my decision to step down we agreed is the right time to begin this transition. vonnie: he says twitter is

focused on remaining independent but he would evaluate any offer. the chairman of dish network is speaking out on tech issues. bloomberg spoke with charlie ergen. charlie ergen: there are certainly a lot of positives. there are willing participants but they have done a fantastic job in kind of being the upstart company. the team has capture the magic -- the imagination of the public. their network is very similar to our spectrum position. obviously their growth rate, there will be more spectrum. those things make some sense. vonnie: they do not think a deal is imminent. in the nba finals, golden state beat cleveland to tie the series at 2-2. steph curry and andre iguodala

each scored 22 points for the warriors. lebron james was held to 20. there was a scary moment for james in the second quarter. he lost his balance and crashed into a courtside camera after getting fouled. he cut his head but returned to the game. game five is sunday in oakland. tom: difficult to say the least. let's do a data check. equities, bonds, currencies commodities. the euro was weaker. crude oil in america, above $60 a barrel. brent crude is 60.480 this morning. we have the administration and republican supporters -- across both parties, actually. it is not going all that well. peter cook is in washington, and all of a sudden thursday's vote

has become incredibly important for the administration. set the drama that we will see through this friday in washington. peter: we are going into arguably the most important vote of the president's second term, and it is not clear how it will pay -- how it will play out. if he is successful, it will set the stage for a global trade deal. supporters believe it is going to be a huge plus for the u.s. economy but you have opponents mainly democrats, prepared to stand in the way. if they can, there will be two votes to block the president. the argument is that if you block it now, you will prevent it later. nancy pelosi is arguably holding the key today. her vote could decide it. tom: that is where i wanted to go. is speaker pelosi pro or antiunion?

peter: she is definitely prounion. in a private meeting yesterday on capitol hill -- they also heard with members from the administration including the chief of staff, the labor secretary, and the treasury secretary, all of them making the case for this fast-track trade bill. if either one of these bills goes down today, the whole thing flops. this is major drama, a major opportunity for the president to advance his second term agenda his economic agenda. if it is blocked today, he officially becomes a lame-duck. brendan: lbj would have gotten this done. who are the president's targets right now? peter: he is sending top members of his team. denis mcdonough's chief of staff. tom perez, who has a lot of credibility with folks in organized labor -- but on this issue he is opposed.

he is in favor of this trade bill. game memories of his administration -- the person he is targeting the most is arguably nancy pelosi. she knows that in her hands hold the president's feint on this issue. does she back the president as she stood -- holds the president's fate in her hands on this issue. we do not know what she is going to do. we will find out on the house floor. tom: peter cook, we appreciate it. what an interesting week for the markets and economics. till is in the air. mortgage rates call it range bound volatility. stock markets recover. we saw that with bigger when the moment is right. it is all part of global

uncertainty. not two americas but two global economies featured throughout the week. europe does well. other nations flag. that is a cause for consternation. josh wright with unique economics. on a global basis, what sticks out to you? christine lagarde and the world bank lecturing janet yellen -- what is you will -- what is it that you will be thinking about about the two global economies? >> i think it is a real rebuttal to people who have been complaining that it would have any kind of effect. we are getting a conference effect. it is not a panacea, but it certainly is going to help. tom: currencies matter. is that the solution with his currency adjustment, when you're

out, fighters out? josh: you have to look at everything that is going on in the economy. in the u.s., a big portion of what is going on, there has been talk of effect recently. you are starting that you were studying what is going on with the household balance sheet with zillo. brendan: yesterday when we heard is that central banks are correlating their efforts. is that what you are seeing? josh: i do not buy into conspiracy theories. these are very complicated issues. the actual operations of the people it is too difficult to get anyone to keep a secret. a lot of these people are trained in the same schools and they think the same way, so they will reach similar conclusions with the same data.

tom: the european experience voniie is just amazing. vonnie: i mean, is it is rocket of -- is it evocative of strong leaders of stronger countries? josh: they had to speak to if not pander to their political base. you have to speak out, even if it is against economic interest. brendan: coming up next, we will go out to san francisco to talk about twitter. there is a new ceo, jack dorsey. he has defined another ceo. we will discuss on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." you thought we would not mention it again this friday. you were wrong. brendan: is it possible to say something new about greece? tom: no. brendan: the answer is yes! a split verdict on the black mayorkmail and bullying over greece.

tom: that is really the emotion of germany. brendan: a mix of cuba and venezuela. is greece really a unique economy? josh: know, and i think that is the danger, thinking that you are unique. nothing is new under the sun. you have to play by similar rules as other people. brendan: given what they had to do under the terms of that they out -- of the bailout, is it fair to compare greece with ireland? josh: i think those were very different situations. a lot of what ireland have replaced -- a lot of what ireland has was based on the financial bubble. all the reforms we are learning

about, that is a totally different situation from what ireland had to do. they had to readjust their financial sector. brendan: ireland went through a financial bubble. there austerity was comparatively smaller because they were already running before the economic crisis happen. tom: what i am interested in -- does anybody at this desk this morning see who the catalyst is to save the day? vonnie: the irish past the losses onto taxpayers. most of the greece -- most of greece -- will they have to bear the brunt at the end of the day? josh: they will pay the price for whatever is going down here, and you know there will be a price. greece is smaller. the eu will pay the price as well. the difference is that greece --

this has been a much longer time coming. greece has been going on for a long time. brendan: this is not a static system. as they negotiate, it gets harder for someone to come in and fix everything because everybody is getting ready for reese to leave. -- for greece to leave. our twitter question of the day -- how would you fix twitter? let us know @bsurveillance. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." futures negative six, dow futures 44. vonnie: a prison worker will reportedly be charged in connection with the upstate new york jailbreak. the woman admitted to giving the convicts power tools and cell phone access. the killers are in their seventh day on the run. as the manhunt intensifies, police living near the prison

say their area is in a virtual lockdown. bloomberg news reports that goldman sachs is investing in software and trading infrastructure. the bank wants to catch up with competitors. facebook shows off its first look at consumer software. it lets people glimpse new places or immerse themselves in electronic games. those are top headlines. i imagine at your height, you can do all sorts of things. tom: i am looking at the chart of the day or the bloomberg terminal. are you kidding me? brendan: it evidently -- vonnie: bloomberg terminal screens. they remind me of the telescope

lenses that you wear. tom: we have a tweet to read. brendan: dick costolo fell or was pushed or whatever -- here is what he finally said. "i am finally trending on twitter." he did not achieve what he set out to do. he still owns a tiny chunk of the company. evan williams, the original founder and jack dorsey he has 3.3%. who is investing right now -- fidelity, morgan stanley. tom: we have someone in here who has deep experience, particularly on amazon. brendan: he has been up all night trying to figure out what happened. brad, thank you for joining us.

help me understand, what did dick costolo failed to do? brad: let's put it in perspective. he did lead this company for five years, earned tremendously -- $22 billion in market cap -- took the company public. what he failed to do is what the founders failed to do, articulate an appeal to twitter that goes beyond its core passionate user base. that inner sanctum of media people celebrities, and sports people. the facebook crowd, another way to put it. facebook has 1.4 billion users all around the world. twitter has been limited by the chronological nature of --

vonnie: did it get too big too fast without taking care of the revenue side of things? brad: revenue has been a problem. face. my sense is that twitter never found a way to grow beyond its core paradigm. brendan: it sounds like what you are saying is that your mom is on facebook not on twitter. that echoes what chris sockoacco wrote -- that it is still too complicated, too intimidating. brad: that is absolutely true. do not even ask your mom, ask your friends. a lot of people have tried twitter and left. they just never really found that product visionary to go to the next level.

tom: they had a will, a message and a vision. they also have to have a cash flow. ebay did that. i look at the spotify valuation -- $8 billion, $7 billion -- who is counting? can twitter actually become like amazon, like facebook, and actually meant money? i do not see it. brad: all the companies you mentioned are founder-led companies, that founder visionary. if twitter has that guy, it is jack dorsey. we will see if he becomes the permanendorsey has never really shown that flair, brendan: you keep asking about money. one of the things that we keep

hearing is that they fail to focus on growth. they are not growing. tom: where is the money, brad? you are the expert on this. i want you to attach growth to the ability to make cash flow. can twitter do that? brad: i sort of agree with brendan. the next ceo needs to be growth obsessed. that is why analysts and investors are down on the stock. it has 4.5 million users quarter over quarter. they need new ad tools. first they need to grow. i think it comes when this thing changes enough that it does not scare the non-core users, or moms, our friends. even snap chat shows you can do it. brendan: we are running out of

time. thank you for getting up at 4:00 in the morning to talk to us about twitter. it sounds like the exact opposite of what we are saying. twitter needs to grow. how would you fix it? ♪

d look at something i have shown many times. it is the u.s. dollar trade weighted. it is brought in the major partners from world war ii and china and mexico. the dollar way too strong,

killing people abroad. down we go and mrs. 1995, the acclaimed rubin dollar. we believe in a strong dollar. down the go. we haven't seen this since vonnie quinn was in grade school. brendan: what fascinates me is that we read things that are completely on the filtered one of them is capital control. to the point of your chart, the possibility there might be a new agreement. this is something that five years ago might not be talked about it. tom: mark says we're back to trend and he suggests months out, not quarters out. you could see a euro of .82. what does the euro of .8 to do to europe? vonnie: they are already complaining at 111. tom: he's a big moves.

-- these are big moves. >> this could end up being called the yellen dollars and this is driven by the u.s. fiscal position. we are not seeing action from the u.s. fiscal position. it a complete focus on the bond market. tom: are you suggesting that the yellen dollar is not about what the u.s. does, but what about other currencies do? >> is about global rebalancing. this is what ben bernanke was talking about years ago when pondering the conundrum. it is easy to forget about that when you focus on the negotiation's with greece. the factor is the rebalancing within the u.s. economy and the chinese economy and then a rebalancing among the three major players. tom: i will feature this out with joe weisenthal and our market coverage later today. let us get to our top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: that is the message

about the debt crisis. a u.s. spokesman says that greece may develop a plan -- must develop a plan to unlock bailout funds now. the eu says the plan must satisfy three international organizations. the commission, the european central bank, and the imf. the greek government says that it could finish, but they continue on a political level and greece is negotiating just on lower primary services is and nothing to do with wages pensions, or restructuring the public debt. hackers who got into federal computers did much more damage than believe. they stole more than triple the number reported last week. the u.s. blames chinese hackers. dominique strauss-kahn's legal battle is now over. and a french court today, he was acquitted of aggravated pending charges. the case against the former international military fund

chief lasted nearly four years. the charges stem from sex parties held during the global financial crisis. he is moving past the allegations of corruption and his administration. opponents were critical after it it was revealed that he and his wife bought houses from government contractors. speaking exclusively with john mikel's weight, and wreak a pena mento says that has been taken care of. >> this is a topic we have already cleaned. we have to nation produce the investigation. we can get proof of payments and then everything is locally done. this topic has created a lot of controversy. and yes, there have been some mistakes in terms of public perception. but i've never tried to hide anything or do anything not on level. vonnie: the president repeated his plans to balance the budget by 2017 without raising taxes. dinosaurs roared back today to life.

"drastic world" is getting the widest released ever by universal studios. ticket sales are expected to top $125 million. tom: all in one weekend? wow. i love what they say in "the new york times." there are so many plugs for mercedes in the new "jurors ask assic world" that they think the audience is executives. did the original "jurassic park" how plugs for mercedes? i say no. brendan: that little art-house film that steven spielberg made? what have you shamelessly done to ruin that film? tom: the jeep in the jungle? brought to you by amc or jeep or chrysler. or whoever. shameless. i will probably have to see it

twice this weekend. let us look at the data check it i'm going to call it a friday chart. josh wright trust to get to his weekend. the two-year-old at two year yield at oakland 72. -- 0.72. brendan: "bloomberg surveillance " i brendan greeley. let's go to top. tom: josh wright is an economist at bloomberg intelligence and suggests that -- what will janet yellen do when we leave? we'll actually wait to see the data. it is so convoluted on this friday. are we all going to wait to see the data? josh: in a way, it has brought back the fed watching where janet yellen is letting us do the talking for her. she is not interested in making

big proclamations. yesterday, we had a strong retail sales report, not only in terms of what was going on in may, but revisions for april and march. it is tempting to take a victory lap and say that cooler heads will prevail and the u.s. will pull through. tom: the big thing is the market out of from the fed. that may be the best thing for janet yellen this week that the markets began to catch up in terms of higher yields where she wants them to be. josh: that is exactly what she is looking for. the fed has got to keep everyone on this. that is their job to make sure that we do not get another temper tantrum. we were talking about christine lagarde telling the fed what to do. the reality is the imf is a different game to play. they have to be worried about the downside risks. they have to worry about stability issues. the fed has to worry about the bond market and the housing market. tom: speaking of the post data, let us talk about economic growth year-over-year. it isn't what it used to be.

for those of you on radio, i will put this on bloomberg digitally around world. we are just back to where we work -- we just aren't back to where we were in the late 1990's. vonnie: goldman sachs not seeing that we guess -- weakness. we don't know the first chordae appeared we don't know if this is something we see every year in the data. how long is it going to take the fed to start trusting if we like the data again? josh: what we are seeing is that some elements of gdp are estimated and then as more data comes in, things get revised. there's the quarterly services survey that was out this week and that shows that it will support gdp. it will be revised aboard towards flat. another sign that things are looking up in the u.s.. brendan: he spent so much time wandering around the world working for international organizations.

looking at what the imf has done in the world bank has done in the last five days do they know what their job is right now? are they clear of their role in the world? josh: knowing what their role in the world is -- the second question is the harder one. their whole legitimacy has been called into question with china setting up its own financial institutions. one thing i'm interested in is the basket of currencies that the imf manages and whether the chinese currency is going to make it in there. china has new moved from being an engine of growth will -- global growth and being a pillar of international financial governments. vonnie: as the bond market know how to read the fed these days? josh: i think it does. the fed is being very transparent. they have put a lot of effort in that. it's about the data and they read it differently than the fed. is contrasting the role of the imf and christine lagarde with the fed and janet yellen.

the market has a different approach. their job is different. they have to price things differently. janet yellen has been articulate at this point. the mom market -- bond market is the tail end. tom: those dots are going to come down. the doctor going to migrate lower. josh: yes, they going to keep migrating lower. their central forecast is always going to be optimistic because they are partly in the job of maintaining confidence in overall growth and especially inflation. tom: josh wright with us from liberty intelligence. it is going to be a political weekend on both sides of the aisle. it is early 2017. secretary clinton on saturday and governor bush on monday -- two heavyweights entered the presidential contest. stay tuned to bloomberg politics and the word of our team on politics. heating up here on a june

weekend. clinton and bush. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good friday morning. we hope you exit at

inappropriate hour. futures deteriorate. job features -69. should i stay until 10:05? brendan: you will make a tom size hole at 10:03. owner of investment firm king holden's has major stakes in both twitter and fox. both companies going under shakeups. and sask are will speak with the prince this morning. can you tie altogether? is there grand unification theory of media that the prince will be offering? erik: i think we will have some -- he will have some views on consolidation. i do not think he will endorse the purchase of twitter by fox for example but he may feel like twitter's future as a company is better in the hands of something else. perhaps google, he knows eric

schmidt very well. he will definitely have views on who should be twitter's next ceo and what kind of engine will best individual that needs to be. he met with dick costolo in washington. he is a huge fan of james murdoch. in fact, he is the first person to have publicly endorsed james murdoch as rupert successor. if anything, he most likely feels that rupert waited too long. brendan: i want to get your read on the last 24 hours of what has been going on with twitter. the argument that we have having on the desk all morning is that top keeps talking about revenue. they need to figure out a way to make revenue. the thing that they are doing ok on revenue. they can grow because twitter is too hard to figure out. where do you fall on that? josh: i think it is aerik: i think it is a relevance problem. brendan: what you do you

mea? josh: i don't think it's relevant to the people living to talk to. young people are not using twitter. they are using snapchat. twitter is relevant to us. i'm sorry, folks. we don't matter anymore. tom: this is a good point. facebook's newsfeed is a lot different than it was two or three years ago. erik: facebook is so much easier. vonnie: how can he have stakes in both companies? josh: hetom: he has a 6.6 state pimm fox. he supports the murdoch family. tom: i wish he said that. that is a huge deal. they are up to 40 something percent. as interesting. erik: it is coming at 9:40 a.m.

this morning. in fact, it might be earlier than that. brendan: i have my own theories about the grand unification theory of fox and twitter and how is going to work out. i'm sure i will put it out on twitter at some point today. . print i'llthe saudi prince will join "market makers" today at 9:30 a.m.. good morning . ♪

tom: good morning. let us get to our top headlines. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: starting a manslaughter investigation into the german wings crash. looking into whether the airline or any person is to blame for failing to check the mental health of the copilot. in vascular say he deliberately crash the plane. apparently the copilot saw dozens of doctors before the crash. 50% of homeowners with oranges are underwater. that is the finding of a real state investigation for. they say 8 million borrowers then more on their homes. one of the attractions at washington nationals games is the racing presidents did the

. the characters are washington, roosevelt, hamilton and jackson. running is president obama. the caption the picture saying i challenge them to a race. tom: the trade deal is a big deal and we will see about it today. i guess we will know about it this afternoon. peter cook saying if they do. defeat the president, he will be a lame-duck president we moved the discussion to jack dorsey and the future of the beleaguered company. then we look at t-mobile and dish and some of the rumors there. and then we go on to who the fittest man on wall street is. exclusive -- it is not me. brendan: that's it. forget what you have seen so far. the campaign has begun. two candidates who have been clearly running for president

for a while are about to admit that they are in fact running for president. hillary clinton and jeb bush will stage their set pieces this weekend. phil mattingly is going to be a theater critic. no way that none of these will be an accident. where are they now say and what does it mean? phil: you are campaign dream asking this question. hillary clinton is announcing on roosevelt island. eleanor roosevelt has often been pointed to by clinton as one of her idols. is a little bit of a shout out to that. that is more fully clinton told him roosevelt to -- that is more franklin delano roosevelt. it is bigger and bolder and going a little bit further than president obama was willing to do in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. that is kind of where that is. the background of the stage and how it is set up will basically overlook a series of as the

campaign calls it "middle class neighborhoods in new york." i think they like that visual as well. you laugh but they have put months into this. [laughter] tom: what does a middle-class neighborhood in queens or manhattan cost? $8,000? phil: just like every day middle-class americans. brendan: these hipsters in astoria clearly understand the middle-class stories that i'm telling you. tom: china get it back on track -- trying to get back on track -- emily greenhouse had a story on republican women. maybe they go for jeb bush or someone else. how does secretary clinton poll the independent women? and if not, how does she pulled them over in the next year and a half? phil: it is not an attack on

republicans in the "war on women " the narrative that democrats have pursued in the last three cycles. it is more a positive approach to what hillary clinton in the white house would mean for women and what it would mean policy wise for women. what is confused here when we look at what hillary clinton is about to lay out -- yes she announced her campaign, but it has largely been on the ground and shake their hands and no real national campaign. what changes as we is it becomes a national campaign. the biggest push is on the policy front. this is what we have been plotting are our eyes out with every chipotle story. with her campaign in the next couple of weeks, there will be a series of concrete policy proposals that you can actually dig into and look at and see where she stands as a candidate. that is where the stuff becomes fun and interesting. that is where the candidates lay out what they are trying to do. that is what their campaign tells me they're going to be due. brendan: clawing our eyes out is

the right way to do this. if she has those folks, i would love to see it in a white paper. turning to the public inside -- the republican side -- is jeb bush inevitable as the known of the -- the nominee? phil: not at all. he has structural advantages on the name and money recognition side. -- money and name recognition side. everyone operative that you talk to says that without a shadow of a doubt that this is the first time in a long time that they have looked at the field and see that there is no real clear favorite. one thing about jeb bush -- there are reports about his campaign in disarray. he's got a team. he is launching. it is not nearly as bad as people have made out to be. they need to stop the narrative now and that is what you'll see on monday with the mouse is good -- when he announces. tom: look for mr. mattingly's

work at bloomberg politics. we need to go to josh wright at answer killer question here. how do you define middle-class? i cannot get a straight answer. what is middle-class to josh wright? josh: i think the real question is what are middle-class skills? what are skills that get you in middle-class and get you to stay there? the contract in the 20th century is broken now. you cannot graduate from high school and go to a factory worker a graduate of the management. you have to develop skills to work with robots and not just heavy machinery. tom: ohio middle class is different from florida middle-class right? josh: you're talking about upward social mobility and the ability of people who do not come from a a lot of advantages to rise through the ranks. brendan: you don't know it, but you're seeing the chorus to

"allentown" by billy joel. tom: whatever out what is, the bottom line is that what he just said is the theme for both parties moving forward. josh: are they going to come out with policies that explain how they're are going to help regular people acquire those? that is to be seen. brendan: let me make a correction. "nebraska" is a springsteen apple. you need to get your agenda. tom: i knew it was a springsteen album. my agenda -- through this morning at the today, this trait de still has to knock up on us. i have not kept up on it, but peter cook says it is a big deal. we will have coverage on that on all of our platforms. vonnie: i'm looking at the economic data. looking for an improvement in

may. michigan has led. the permanently -- preliminary reading looking at terms of improvement for june. brendan: i would argue that what both of you are talking about is far more important than what i'm talking about. here is what i'm figuring out with twitter. does the media pay attention to twitter because the media uses twitter? is it at all relevant anymore? is it like yahoo! and what -- in which we pay attention to it only out of habit? tom: to the critics, they listen. they listen on digital, but how do you make money on that? it's like yahoo!. brendan: they are making money. a ghost the conversation of the hour. they are making money, but they're not growing fast enough. vonnie: the promises that they get people in, but you have to

see them execute on that promise. that does bring us to our twitter question of the day. we ask how you would fix twitter. twitter should charge the media among a user posting fee. i don't know about you guys. brendan: that is the key to user growth -- fees. vonnie: twitter needs a new ceo that left the platform and modifies it for wall street. brendan: the problem is that's everything. of course it needs both of those things, but to love the platform and make it grow has been a challenge. vonnie: before i reveal our third answer, i want to get twitter better by getting my mom on twitter. that won't make it better. no moms on twitter. tom: vonnie had the smartest comment on this all day. listen. i love that. that's what people do on twitter -- they listen.

we will have much more on this and important interviews through the morning. stay tuned to bloomberg television and to bloomberg radio. good morning. ♪

>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. this is "market makers," with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. erik: good morning. you are watching "market makers" here on this friday. i am in saskatoon -- erik

schatzker. olivia: i'm olivia sterns in for stephanie ruhle. erik: you'll hear from one of the largest shareholders of 20th century fox. that is coming in the next hours. olivia: and in just a few minutes, an exclusive interview with us. we will ask about his interest and tie up with t-mobile. i'm so glad i got out of bed. erik: thank you for being here. olivia: you also have the supertex on which i appreciate. erik: time now for top stories and bring you what is news at this hours. the house is expected to vote on a fast track trade bill and there is an all-out fight for votes on both sides. president obama went to the annual congressional baseball game last night to roundup both from reluctant democrats