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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  June 16, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT

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after the collapse, oil find stability. what is next for american oil? and they cannot help themselves. once again, the airlines -- surprise -- they add capacity. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we have breaking news right now. moments ago across the terminal this from "the financial times." "eurozone officials consider emergency resummit by sunday." brendan: when discussions broke down sunday, greece said they were not people in the room empowered to make decisions. tom: we have a lot on this. hans nichols and john farrell will join us. right now, we need a complete update on our top headlines. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: an old creditor eurasia group -- the meeting might happen again sunday. greece will not go any farther
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with proposals to unlock bailout money. llanos varoufakis says the country will not make any more concessions. he says greece remains willing to find a solution, but creditors need to take greece's proposals seriously. greece is -- jeb bush is promising to run a campaign in which he stays true to his beliefs, which have been attacked by conservative spirit in south florida, he announced he is joining the crowded field for the republican presidential nomination. conservatives are skeptical of his views on immigration and education. bush alluded to the fact that he is the son of one president and the brother of another. jeb bush: campaigns are not easy, and they are not supposed to be. i know there are a lot of good people running for president. quite a few, in fact. not one of us deserves the job by right of resume party family, or family narrative.
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it is nobody's turn, it is everybody's test and it is wide open, exactly as the contest for president should be. vonnie: real estate mogul donald trump is expected to announce today he is entering the race for republican nomination. brendan: i'm going to be there, are you kidding me? breathlessly awaiting. vonnie: al qaeda has confirmed that the second in confirmed -- al qaeda has confirmed that the second in command has been killed by an american airstrike. many see this as the biggest strike against the global terror network since the killing of osama bin laden. bloomberg news is reporting and some has explored a takeover office -- and some -- anthem has taken over an office of
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cigna. the chicago black hawks have won the stanley cup for the first time that for the third time in six years. -- the blackhawks have won the stanley cup for the third time in six years. tom: very much deserved. he had a lot of ice time. typical ice time for a defenseman is 21 or 23 minutes come out of 60 minutes. he was doing 30, and even 32 minutes. that marginal eight minutes is a huge deal. it reminds me of ray bourque of the boston bruins years ago. it is truly a dynasty. let's do a dynastic data check for you. equities, bonds, currencies commodities setting up our conversation. the euro, one point 1253 -- the euro, 1.1253.
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30% on the two-year yield is stunning on the vix. this is the euro. i have never seen this, brendan greeley. i am sure it has occurred, but i have never seen it. this is the here and now. usually it is red in the back one year out. this is massive volatility in the immediate space of the euro both the weak euro, long euro, and even out here we have elevated, weaker euro. this elevated volatility, this bright red in the one-month and three-month betting of what the euro will do is extraordinary. brendan: this right here is usually a grin a nice smile here. what we are seeing is -- here is what i am looking at. i want to jump in here. we have breaking in germany, their "new york times," the
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european -- the euro countries have agreed on a plan b an emergency plan for france capital controls. they are going to wait until the european finance ministers meet in luxembourg thursday. they have a plan for greece. the greek parliament has to approve of it. they have broached the c word. tom: we have hans nichols and john farrow with us. hans nichols, let me go to you first. is greece simply running out of money? is that the catalyst here? hans: that will be laid bare tomorrow when the ecb meets and they decide how much to increase their emergency assistance. i do not want to despair the report because they have good reporting there. the idea that you would have capital controls if you do not have an agreement is almost an obvious one. there will have to be something to do to prevent that capital
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coming from greece. can capital controls be effective if you do not have an island? we have talked about iceland, cyprus. it works best on a physical island. tom: a great distortion in the interesting liquidity that we have right now, john farrow -- is this new volatility now different than the volatilities we have seen before because of the central bank great distortion? john: you and i spoke about -- we are talking about spreads now. what you're seeing is spreads blowout. the difference in yield between germany and spain blowing out to 165 basis points. it was as tight as 88 just three months ago. the uncertainty from greece injected into the bond market in europe and the periphery diverging again, from the core. it is a 2011-2012 story, but not
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with the volume turned up. tom: brendan, this goes to the idea that will the politicians listen to john farrow's markets. brendan: i want to go to hans. you have been keeping every twist of these events in your personal diary. i am looking at page a2 of "the financial times." above the full we have something interesting -- mario draghi saying we are not a political organization. olivia one shard saying the imf is frustrated. hans: privately, you start hearing -- that was the last time finance ministers got together 2.5 weeks ago. that was the last time you got the sense that maybe people were positioning themselves for the post blame game. the most important meetings today are happening in athens when mr. tsipras meets with other parties. the second party in charge, it looks like they will support him
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if he goes back to parliament with a bailout package. the greek question to me is will tsipras cut with his own party and try to form a broader greek coalition. that has been my only case for optimism. tom: john farrow what will you watch through your london afternoon today? what is the thing the market litmus paper has of interest? john: i think it is spreads, tom. it is not just about a bond market reflation trade. we are talking about credit risk. it is a small divergence, but it is worth keeping an eye on. the first flaw of capital controls is that you do not talk about it. the fact that no one has denied from the credit side of this that there is a plan b, that tells you something. these guys want you to think
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capital controls are coming because they want to force the issue. tom: john farrow, thank you very much. and hans nichols as well. what hans said about the island characteristics is incredible. brendan: we do not get controlled experiments in economics, and everyone argues from the past there it what happens in iceland is not necessarily indicative of what goes on in other countries. tom: let's bring it back to the united states but also look at the global slowdown, the backdrop for a better u.s. and better europe. it is that struggling global economy. brent crude -- skip york is at wood mackenzie. houston and the balkans do not set the price. i am fascinated by how a global slowdown affects the price of oil. have you observed it? >> what we are seeing is that it
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is a bit of a two-edged sword. you get a slowdown from the economy and oil prices come off, but then you get the lower oil price and it affects the economy. tom: michael levy with his wonderful book on u.s. oil, the price came down to 40. we have come up to 60. we stabilized. one is that distribution of outcomes that you have to live with. you have been at this long enough. there is not a certain point, is there? skip: we take a view on a price curve, but what does the mean look like? what i think i would say right now is that we were thinking earlier this year that the risk was on the upside, that we were asymmetrical on -- tom: 70 becomes 80. skip: probably the spread is about 50/50 now.
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brendan: i am looking at your june notes and circled this. "consensus can be a poor predictor of outcome. your macro guys listed all the things that affect oil in no particular oil. economic growth, shift in opec strategy, so which of these to you is the biggest known unknown? skip: what is the impact of the cost structure going to do to oil activity over the next 18 to 24 months. they are getting better and better. necessity is becoming the mother of invention. because of the low price environment, they have to get better and fast. brendan: this is what not -- this is not what opec plan for. tom: a lot of uncertainty as we move forward. we will talk to skip york later in the hour. continued focus on the markets. u.s. futures down -12.
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now futures -97. let's look at our twitter question of the day. it goes back to the memories of cyprus and iceland, our capital controls. we are thrilled with your informed answers that we have seen out in twitter. our capital controls, the next step for greece. -- our capital controls -- are capital controls the next step for greece? stay with us, folks. "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. news out at greece. here are top headlines of vonnie quinn. vonnie: a weather warning is up right now along the 300-mile stretch of testis texas coastline.
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the system is coming in from the gulf of mexico. it is expected to bring in eight inches of rain. the state is still recovering from the wettest month on record in may. in europe, car sales moved at the slowest pace in six months. concern about unemployment and the greek debt crisis may be holding down demand. the first lady lands in london in plenty of time for tea. michelle obama and her daughters are starting a european visit. she will meet with ritesh prime minister david cameron and -- with british prime minister david cameron and take tea with harry. tom: she has got to hug the baby. brendan: you have a problem with the royals. you do. tom: i think the first lady is there for one issue -- hug the baby. i need therapy. brendan: shares of major airlines have been struggling.
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investors are worried that the market might be working. they are losing pricing power. the industry is sitting in paris, crashing its head -- scratching its head. george ferguson is also in paris , watching the head scratching. here is what i am wondering. can airlines just not make money unless they act like a cartel? george: everybody of course makes more money when they act like a cartel. i think the world is generally always over-airlined and over airplaned. it is hard to make money because someone always wants to add more capacity and take market share. brendan: what is the best measure of overcapacity among the major u.s. carriers? what are we looking for for that
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measure? george: we watch sort of the biggest carriers and see what their responses have been. they are adding capacity is more of gdp, and that is concerning. delta is 3% or 4%. when you see them adding capacity of of gdp growth, that is when we get concerned, and we are starting to see their fares slip. we measure them by yields, the price they pay by customer per mile that they are flown. we have started to see yields come down for the first time in a number of years. oil prices gave them a big benefit at the end of last year and it persisted into this year. the way we see it right now, they are approaching the point where they have given back almost all of their gains from lower fuel prices. now we see how much they really want to take market share. as part of the dynamic to close it out, a lot of smaller
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airlines have been adding capacity a lot. you look at spirit airlines -- they added 30% more capacity year over year. if you are southwest, you have managed the risk of those people taking your market share. brendan: particularly if you are delta, the price of oil affect your ability to purchase fuel-efficient plans. -- fuel-efficient planes. george: we have not seen delta come in for an order. delta flies an older fleet. we have seen asian airlines come in and the middle east airlines. we have not seen u.s. airlines by a lot yet. united was in for some smaller. delta -- this might be the right time for delta to be buying airplanes. there may be some deals to be had. tom: what i know is that delta
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is giving away 60,000 miles on one of their the set american express cards. all i want to know is, a kid has to get over to europe for the junket this summer. the summer is when the money is made. is the money going to be made always on the transatlantic scam, or is this your different? george: well, look transatlantic market is one of the better markets for the carriers, and it is a bit cartellish. there are three big ventures that control capacity across the atlantic. there is star alliance, there is delta, air france, and there is british air an american. they all control the amount of capacity they put across the atlantic. the atlantic is probably the best opportunity of keeping fares and making a bunch of
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money. we are starting to see emirates flight flights out of laguardia and kennedy. we see turkish flying it. we are seeing fraying on the edges of that capacity inside the transatlantic market. it will be interesting to watch. tom: why do the kids have to go business-class? george ferguson, thank you so much, out of the paris air show. coming up in the next hour, we will discuss why children need to fly business class per also, frank keating will join us, the former gornor of oklahoma. brendan: whose kids fly business-class? i will put my kids -- if i get to fly coach -- they will. tom: the kids just want to borrow the freaking flyer miles. we will be back to frank in our next hour. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. we mentioned at the top of the show, a sunday meeting. brendan, it is a thursday meeting, right? brendan: in luxembourg. it happens every month. it was these sunday meeting we were paying attention to, the summit meeting by the heads of state. tom: we look at market reaction to what we see in greece and how it pulls over to contagion. euro-dollar, one-month implied volatility is at the highest level since december, 2011. the key is one month the present tense. greece jitters in the foreign exchange market are being reflected more in the volatility space than in spot at this point." that means that market, one
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month, three months six months out, is to bet on something unraveling here. vonnie: tomorrow things could change as well depending on the language that comes out. tom: i do not disagree with that. stanley fischer's vice-chairman, it is going to be discussed. brendan:'s euro-dollar waiting on any decision or the right decision? tom: i think you and i would believe that deposits are the immutable -- are the immovable force. brendan: does the value of the euro rest on the right decision with greece, or the passage of any decision whatsoever? tom: the immediate decision rests on that, but the euro is much more than worrying about greece. vonnie: can i point out in this
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context that we have not mentioned yet that the european court of justice has decided that oh nt is legal. tom: michael mckee z is the only guy on the planet who -- vonnie: it is the most powerful that mario draghi has used. tom: so mario draghi took a victory there? vonnie: yes. brendan: that is a message to german taxpayers -- deal with it. tom: we need your perspective on our twitter question today. are capital controls the next step for greece? ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swift's music videos interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. tom: a busy morning, folks. "bloomberg surveillance." vonnie quinn, help me out. fitfit bit is raising prices as they tried to get there
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initial public offering price. vonnie: 30 poor 34 point 5 million shares. they have 85% of the connected market at the moment, facing stiff competition trying to overtake apple. tom: since you got fit bit, did you get your 10,000 shares? vonnie: i count my shares in my head, tom. tom: fit bit doing better than good as they try to get their roadshow done, getting to their initial public offering. that's go to top headlines. vonnie: there is talk that european leaders may hold an emergency summit on greece. eurozone officials are discussing a possible summit next sunday. the greek finance minister yanis varoufakis says they will not be any new proposals this week. reese has rejected demands that it make further -- greece has
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rejected demands that it make further cuts or make tech -- or raise taxes. the rules committee has agreed to delay another trade vote until the end of july, at this has to do with a bill that compensates workers who lose their jobs. general electric's ceo jeff ml told charlie rose that trade deals are vital for america. jeff immelt: in two weeks we will not have any trade bills and our -- we are the only country on earth that would have those two things happen, and they will both happen in the next two weeks. i would say to people watching the show, guys, we can compete. this is a job creator. people think trade bills are for people like ge. i can globalize without it. vonnie: you can watch that interview with ge's jeff immelt on charlie rose on bloomberg tv. the new york times says goldman
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sachs plans to offer online lending for consumers. americans can borrow as little as a few thousand dollars. goldman is hoping to make this move next year. about 175 stores in north america gap stores, will close. for the first time in seven years, charitable giving in the u.s. has surpassed the pre-recession record. americans gave $358 billion to charity last year, $47 billion more than in 2007. those are your top headlines. tom: let's move on to oil. we are following headlines out of greece. no one saw $100 becoming $40 for oil. now with stability at $60, there is a reading debate about the price of oil, what it means for american production, the mergers
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and acquisitions prince skip york -- and acquisitions. skip york, you took your phd in virginia, and it does not prepare you for dumb decisions in oil. what is the humility right now as they look at a new -- exxon mobil -- what is the humility, what is the fear that everybody has as they try to combine right now? skip: what the concern is, am i paying the right price for the underlying assets? if i look at the reserves, what do i think i can produce those reserves for in the future? that will be a function of what happens to oilfield services. tom: when you buy a company, are you buying -- skip: the technology of horizontal fracking has become so widespread. vonnie: are you surprised there
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have not been more deals? skip: we were sort of expecting it the second half of this year, because the it buy spread has been so big. the guys that want to buy are thinking the reserves are worth 40. we thought we would take a second half of the year for the oil spread to come together. when the debt is repriced later in the fall, that is going to be what puts the pressure on activity. brendan: the makers were waiting on the certainty of the price of oil to get back long-term. what is so certain that it is? skip: you have to remember that the oil market does not function just on today but it is also looking years into the future. if you are all the way out in 2025 and you say how am i going to supply that global oil demand, i cannot do that with just $50 tight oil. brendan: they are waiting until
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they know what the future looks like? skip: i think they know the prices going back into the 1980's were the 1990's. it is the when. that tells them when is the best time to look at the deals. tom: the romance that we have with the arctic ocean or off brazil -- is that gone forever? skip: i do not think it is gone forever. they have always been technologically challenging. it is tough to sanction it in those environments. but the people that are undertaking it, i think their view is someday i am going to have to be there. tom: is exxon mobil the old cruise mobile? skip: no, i think they are all trying to become more nimble. tom: they are becoming more supple. they are not the stodgy big oil
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that we used to know. skip: they have those projects that they love to do. they are very impressive projects to do but as you get into the price environment we are in, they cannot just do -- tom: it is so important to know that we frame big oil by things like the mexico spill, bp, or the exxon valdez, which is a million years ago. that is ancient history. vonnie: most of them have a lot of activity going on here. skip: the international active ones, whether you are a major or one of the large independents i think you are looking at brent because you are making an asset decision on, do i want to own something in the u.s. or international? brendan: oil players out in the west can ramp up capacity or hold capacity back as needed
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whenever they need to, which means they can play this game forever. they will always be a threat to opec. skip: it is their nimbleness that will reshape the industry. if you think back to the oil price collapse of 1986, the reason why that price reacted so quickly was because there was not the ability to be nimble. now that nimbleness and the decline curves associated with tight oil -- i am much more fluid now with the drilling activity and the associated volume. tom: is canada enjoying that same suppleness? i would say no. skip: candidate increasingly looks like a large megaproject because their road profile has survived the seven-year project. tom: you see m&a work out there even if it is in the canadian environment, right? skip: they have to figure out a way to take those $85 projects
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down into the 80's. tom: i do not understand geologically how you do that. skip: the challenge is not only the geology, it is the remoteness. it will be more expensive to get the same piece of capital to transport all the way to the middle of -- i think the industry is moving to plan b. the important thing about the state department report, which is consistent with our view, is that that canadian oil is going to find its way to the market. it does not matter whether it is keystone xl, or moving by rail. the industry has said if you will not give us keystone, excel, we will move on to the next option. oil wants to move by pipeline, but it is not going to be limited by pipeline. brendan: coming up, we will talk carefully and tactfully about marriage. we are not talking about the value of marriage or how much fun marriages, we're talking about whether or not people stay
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married. and the story of the 20th century company in today's single best chart. good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning. we have had 20 minutes of quiet on greece now. dow futures -89.
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how about the single best chart? this is a major shout out to randy olson of the university of pennsylvania, who put together a bunch of american data on the white line marriage and yellow line the voice. -- and yellow line divorce. it is fascinating social story the increase in divorce over 100 or so years and the new decline in marriage around the spikes of war and other emotions. brendan: let's look at the positives. there is also a decline in divorce. we are used to saying 50% of all marriages end in divorce. that is no longer true. i was struck at how the volatility is in the marriage rate, not the divorce rate. i would have assumed that divorces follow economic trends and if there is no money, people are more likely to get divorced. it is in fact the opposite.
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people are more exuberant about marriage and much more volatile on divorce. vonnie: how many marriages are around this table? tom: countless. brendan: one. vonnie: it does not include me. there are many reports that people are not getting divorced precisely because of the recession. tom: it is a real soup. i have trouble with these articles, the certitude. i think what randy olson did here -- around what we knew from our grandparents and parents that spike in the yellow line is all the divorces after world war ii. the emotion of getting married at 38, 39, and 40, and maybe that did not work out. brendan: also in 1980, it is interesting, there is a decrease
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in the marriage rate. not the divorce rate, the marriage rate. tom: a lot has been written about the new trend of fewer marriages. vonnie: yes, millennials are moving back home and delaying marriage. tom: randy olson, thank you so much. vonnie: it is worth pondering. brendan: my father says that the secret to success is one wife, one house, state school. vonnie: ok. tom: well, i guess i screwed that up. vonnie: well, a little change in perspective -- the volcano located on sumatra island is spewing ash and lobby right now. 3000 indonesian villagers were evacuated from their homes. the volcano had been dormant for
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400 years before interrupted in 2010. sinabung is one of the more active volcanoes, sitting on the ring of fire. those pictures are pretty phenomenal. number 2 -- in auckland, new zealand a flower has bloomed for the second time. the first time was in 2013. it is called the corpse flower because it smells like rotting flesh when needed blooms -- when it blooms. tom: a beautiful flower. it is huge. vonnie: 9.5 feet. the chicago blackhawks beat the tampa bay lightning in the stanley cup playoffs. game six. the blackhawks' duncan keith.
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tom: they have a huge canadian tv deal, which is the oil in the engine that makes it go. but it is religion for a lot of people. a lot of people go, really? vonnie: although it is important to point out that basketball is having its best ratings. tom: is it tonight? i watched five minutes yesterday. the ball never left midfield. brendan: that is because the netherlands has a control strategy. tom: the blackhawks' control strategy was to move the puck up the ice. it is tuesday, folks and " surveillance" it is at its peak for three weeks. we have serious news on greece. we are following this headline
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the headline. john farrow and hans nichols will join us at the top of the hour with important news including new meetings. our twitter question of the day goes to the latest quiet whisper out of europe. are capital controls the next step for greece? we need your thought and answer on twitter. good morning, everyone. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to top headlines. vonnie: hank greenberg won his lawsuit over the aig a lot. age of -- a judge gave the former ceo a partial victory, ruling that the fed did not have the -- he also said shareholders should not be compensated. the case is likely to make it harder for the government to rescue financial firms in the future. the two biggest makers of video games are squaring off at a convention in los angeles. microsoft has preview the next game in its halo franchise. sony showed clips from new games in final fantasy and several
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other series. tom: aig -- i read very carefully these reports -- it is the oddest lawsuit. i never understood it from the first day. i am a ceo, i'm angry at what happens in the news, so i will sue somebody. that is my take on it. it is bizarre. brendan: it felt clear that it was about pride. it was about is on -- more about pride and it was about exoneration. is he exonerated now? there was no actual monetary award. tom: this was the most bizarre litigation. brendan: there has been a strain of the anger both at the president and washington in general. tom: just bizarre, and thanks to bloomberg for terrific coverage. we continue our coverage on your gallon of gas. with us, skip york. do you drive a tesla? skip: no.
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tom: i go to whole foods or whatever, and they had at the atrium at the time warner center, a tesla. everybody looks at it. is elon musk and tesla the biggest threat to oil stability out there? can it really gain traction? skip: if you want to threaten the oil complex, you need to threaten transportation fuel. the advantage that oil has is that the car that runs on an internal combustion engine is just so massive. it takes decades. when you think about the end of oil, it is going to be a transportation solution that is not running on hydrocarbons. tom: is it t boone pickens and gas, or is it elon musk and tesla? is there a strategy group in houston saying, what do we do in 10 years?
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skip: within each of our sectors, and the overarching group, we ask ourselves what are the global trends? what is over the horizon that is possible? whether it is an electric vehicle or soul are coming into power generation. brendan: you talk about the possibility of a new energy innovation, but not of new government intervention. are your macro people pricing in the possibility of any kind of regulation, gas tax? skip: we do price in a bit of a carbon tax. on the oil side we are still working on that transportation, which will be a bit more immune to a carbon policy than power generators. tom: right now we continue the story on greece. we need to look at the various canaries in the coal mine. jane foley gives a terrific perspective on foreign exchange into the political economics that we see.
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with spanish spreads widening out, the great talk here is about increased volatility as expressed in the euro. have you ever seen the short-term vol that we see in the euro? jane: yes. if you go back to friday, you might even say, why is the euro reacting a lot more? the euro has been holding up quite well. there could be a variety of reasons for that. perhaps it is because the market is a little bit tight, the volatility over recent weeks in europe. it has been driven by a lack of liquidity, but maybe the market is quite hopeful that there will be a deal, or maybe -- there are politics going on in greece and in poland and turkey. tom: brendan, there was a pro brilliantly explaining the
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linkage between the price of the euro, the level of the euro, the new volatility and the lack of liquidity that is perceived to be out there brendan:. one thing i have been trying to figure out is is the market waiting on the right deal on greece, or is it waiting on any deal? jane: it is a little bit of both. it depends on if you are looking at the near term or the further out perspective. in the near term, it is going to be any deal. there have been interesting stories on the bloomberg wire. they have been saying there might be some opposition parties that would be willing to vote along with the prime minister to put a deal in place. we know that the greek government there is far less government within that party. they have been very unwilling to accept anything that goes against the promises that the government made back in january. some of the opposition parties may step in, give the government
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a majority that goes with a compromise deal, which would pursue more pension reform. at least there could be a deal on the table, and that is a glimmer of good news today. even so, we still do not have that deal. until that is done, i do not think there is cause for celebration. tom:brendan: jane foley gets her news from the bloomberg wire. jane: if we got to the point that we had capital controls, it it would be for greece a very sad situation. a lot of the smart money has already left the country, and it would be more ordinary people that suffer the inconveniences and the stresses that that capital controls would bring. tom: jane foley, thank you so much. on short notice here from rabbo obank.
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how about a forex report? euro holding up, one 1.1 through fifth nine -- stay with us. another hour of "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ . .
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: greece's financial system
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is that a turning point. one way is for athens to compromise. the other way is for the spread to go why does morning. we talked to frank about jeb. no one in the gop has a last name this morning. and in equities, bonds currencies, commodities, there is a new different liquidity volatility. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, june 16. i am tom keene. brendan greeley and vonnie quinn with us as well. what is the news about greece? brendan: basically saying that the eurogroup, the countries in the euro are considering capital controls, offering a deal to greece, the greek parliament has to approve of it, of course. they're waiting on the eurogroup meeting coming up at the end of this week -- tom: thursday. brendan: but that is a huge deal.
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just to utter the words "capital controls" in public is a massive deal. tom: meeting in athens scheduling for mr. alexis tsipras to speak to his people here as the story drives forward. let's get our top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: just to put one on that, signaling that the greek debt problem is that a critical stage with greek leaders -- with euro leaders, the "financial times" says eurozone officials are considering a stalemate unless it is broken thursday. great finance minister yanis for caucus -- yanis varafoukis says greece is refusing -- jeb bush says he plans to be a washington outsider. he made his candidacy official yesterday in the college campus in miami. the former florida governor said when it comes to the presidency there is no such thing as entitlement.
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jeb bush: we're not need another president who merely holds the top spot among the pampered elite in washington. we need someone to disrupt the whole culture and i will be that president. vonnie: bush is the 11th declared republican candidate in the race, and he could become another name as verizon announcement excited from donald trump. al qaeda confirming the u.s. drone killed it can in command. he was also the leader of al qaeda's powerful faction in yemen, where he was killed last week. the u.s. had put a $5 million price on his head. many people see this as the biggest strike of the global terrorist network since the killing of osama bin laden. bloomberg news is reporting a takeover of -- anthem takes over cigna and is making a bid for humana.
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insurance companies have been seeking ways to cut costs and increase profit. the chicago blackhawks are hockey's champions. they won the stanley cup in front of their hometown fans. we have reports on a german magazine saying greece is looking to delay the june imf payment by six months. tom: things are moving very quickly, don't we think? brendan: that is the best read on this. they are always so indignant all stop -- so indignant. tom: futures deteriorate. they were negative love 11, now -9. jane foley of rubble really nicely summed up euro stability amid higher volatility and the
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reality of less liquidity. there's a ton of math there right now. math that hans nichols studies of the london school of economics, and he joins us now from berlin. hans, i look at the mathiness of what we see in the markets, and it comes down to politics. what will you watch out of the german newspapers as merkel response to the moment? hans: hans: well, i will to see if the german newspapers have any indication that the greeks will drop her a real proposal. the newspaper has a really good pipeline into yanis varoufakis. they had a couple of interviews with him recently. they are reporting on anonymous sourcing that greece will ask for a six-month extension of their imf payment. that is important for a couple of reasons. one, it looks like greece may -- if this report is true, and we have not confirmed -- they are looking for more time and may be
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split potentially their creditors, and that has been the back story. the creditors are not as unified, by that i mean the ie ecb, euro bank, and imf. brendan: greece would not be dragging them out if they did not think they could get something. what could do with an extra six months? hans: greece was a longer conversation about what a sustainable debt is. they want to get out of their current imf program and not follow everything they agreed to. they want to be able to pay some of their debts but they've not want to do necessarily what they promised to do to get that money, and they want a long-term debt restructuring for stop make the bonds say, a 100-year bond to essentially write them off. most economists agree the debt levels for greece are too high. tom: we have got them speaking in athens right now. at the end of the day, the greek people want to be in the european union, back-and-forth
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with some huge exhaustion. what would you expect the european leaders to do to get to thursday from this tuesday if we see spreads now out at new recent wides? hans: it does not look like european leaders are doing anything except preparing for default. we just heard from the finnish prime minister saying it is becoming closer and closer to reality. i do not expect anything before the finance ministers' meeting on thursday. do they give a lifeline in terms of emergency liquidity systems or do they turn screws a little tighter? tom: beautiful summary. hans nichols from berlin thank you so much. it will be ugly when we look at american banking. it means fewer employees, fewer bank staff, and yes, fewer employees. frank keating and his group of executives must execute a plan over the next five years if they can get to the next five years from now. we speak this morning.
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i love what jeb said, "the pampered elites of oklahoma city." frank: i never thought we were that pampered. tom: how many bodies will go in american banking? do you have a working number of the number of people next five years i will go out the door? frank: the challenge for us -- the aba has 5500 members, but we have lost one bank, one community bank a day, five days a week, since the fall of 2008. tom: every day, 30 people or 40 people go out the door. frank: this is the worst number we've had a terms of banks from sea to shining sea since the 1890's. small town america is not a position to expect the post office, god help us, to provide financial services, as in the case of japan. brendan: what about credit unions? are they picking up the slack?
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frank: no, credit numbers -- their numbers have not changed materially. with the regulatory oppression of dodd-frank, 5% to 20% of operating income goes to compliance. brendan: hold on, this is a long-term problem, though. i have heard from so made banks of a have a problem with the regulatory issues of dodd-frank, by declining numbers of community banks -- this is a free dodd-frank problem. it is a long-term trend. frank: it is accelerating. the acceleration is the result obviously of a soft economy, obviously borrowing is not as endemic as it was, and obviously it is much more difficult for young people particularly to buy a house. and you have a situation where the cost of compliance are really oppressive. there is a little bank in marblehead ohio that had an examination about, oh four months ago.
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the ceo of the bank called me. he has 12 employees and 14 fed people came to his bank for two weeks will stop how do you conduct any business when you have that? tom: i have a number of e-mails, governor keating, you were a governor of one of our great states you are an award-winning author of children's books. all people want to know from you as the head of the ada is jamie dimon is going to lay off 20,000, brian moynihan is going to lay off x number of thousands. what is going to happen to the other banks? they do not make the headlines, do that? frank: what i'm focused on between the committee banks, the diminishment and committee banks, brendan is right, there have been fluctuations, declines as a result of just competitive pressures, but there is no way that you were going to have financial services that you need
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and want, that focus on the goodness of the pounds, the vitality of the community if you not have the community in those towns. tom: another thing we can talk about is the digital banking at the small bank level because it takes away that personal touch. frank keating with us, and yes we will talk republican politics later. we can do a vanilla discussion on the vix, or we can talk about the new volatility we see worldwide. spain spreads out wider than they have been since october one indication of that. dean curnutt coming up. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." vonnie quinn brendan greeley with us. brendan has a great morning must-read. brendan: this is from joseph stiglitz, arguing about a rule of law for sovereign debt. he writes -- tom, what i thought was interesting about this is that he talks about power.
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economists do not like to talk about power. they want to talk about contracts, but if you are a country going through a sovereign debt restructuring, you do not have power, and that changes the terms you are going to get. tom: the keyword is restructuring. the elephant in the room here, whoever you talk to, whether it is bill rhodes, former vice chairman of citigroup, or government officials, they are like -- where is the adult discussion? brendan: i would say everyone in that conversation recognizes that restructuring is going to happen eventually, whether it is an actual haircut or extend and pretend. the problem is greece wants to do restructuring now, then we will talk. everybody else is saying let's get a deal going -- tom: vonnie help us out here. part of this is berlin, paris, london are that far from ireland or that far from athens. if we were talking about bolivia or peru, we would not be having this bait. vonnie: there will also be a
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weaker parliamentary -- the need for the parliament to agree to the extension of the bailout. brendan: that is true, but we always bring up ireland as an example. the really important difference is ireland has accepted its debt burden, some of them are out to 20-40 now and right now is willing to say ok we are not going to get rid of the dead we deal with the here and now. tom: you go out to 2040 mostly by talk to, including carl weinberg, they go 0 for 25 years, whatever number that is -- i cannot keep track of anymore -- and then you go out from there. they're talking rough 50, 60, 70 years. vonnie: you are talking about foreseeing the sunday, potential meeting, but also they were saying this morning as creditors -- that could be another possibility, a sub challenge if you do another little bit. tom: get you a condo in some greek island. brendan: [laughs]
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exactly. tom: there it is. to bring you up-to-date on spreads, wearily up to new wides on greece spreads. i do not want to be inflammatory, but we're up to new wides on greece fred's. -- spreads. brendan: we are going to talk about capital controls. are they the next step for greece? that is our twitter question of the day full stop let us know @bsurveillance. good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." futures at -7. sporting to say the least. let's get you some sporting top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: weather warning is up right now among the 300-mile stretch along the texas coastline. tropical storm bill is excited to bring up to 8 inches of rain and cause flooding. the ground is already saturated in much of texas stop the state
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recovering from the wettest month on record in may. european auto sales are in low gear. car sales in may rose at the lowest pace in six months, and of course the greek debt crisis may be hurting sales. in germany, car sales down nearly 7%. the first lady in london, michelle obama and her daughters are starting a european visit to meet the european british prime minister david cameron. those are the top heads. tea and scones. tom: i am thrilled air going full stop know everybody gets upset, i am like, are you kidding me? take the girls. it is oculus. this is a really important discussion. each and every market pro, new and different volatility. that is a mathy concept. even pros get confused about implied or visible volatility.
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dean curnutt is chief executive officer of macro risk advisors, doing his merlin. jean foley was just on from rabobank, and she beautifully dovetailed price movement which is what all of us amateurs look at, versus really twisted volatility movement in a period of a lack of liquidity. what is different this time? dean: what is different this time of the number of outside equities cross currencies, so if you are in equity investor, you are looking at the vix meandering between 13 and 15. no real alarm bells, but when you look at cross asset corollaries like german bund through the roofs in the 100 percentile, we were talking about euro implied volatility, especially the very short implied volatility which tends to speak to the fear in the market, the demand for hedging has really accelerated. tom: what you mean by the demand for hedging? people are afraid to do trades? dean: exactly.
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you are buying options because you think the underlying asset in this case the -- exactly, it raises the price of the option volatility rises. tom: long ago and far away, we had a libor to pen off of. we do not have that this time around in europe or here. what is the base, the anchor that all of this happens off of? frank:dean: if you look at the incredible rally in german solid bonds into qe, down 5 basis points the german bunds, and then the selloff, capital is being forced into and forced out of these traits in a pretty unhealthy fashion, largely due to the position of the ecb's inelastic buying. tom: a little bit of contagion risk this morning, brendan greeley, as we see spain come out wide as well. not like we saw three years ago but it is there. brendan: one of our reporters in london had a great piece about how blackrock, among other
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places is revising its model in part based on what they are describing as volatility in the bund. when you see this movement in the bund it is one direction over the last month. is that volatility, or is it just a perversion to the mean faster than we expected? dean: i thought that piece by blackrock was important because market respondents are responding to the -- volatility depends on your size, how big you want to be in a particular position, and what we learned about german bunds is they are far from being risk-free. potentially it will lead to age or maddock resizing, downsizing of positions, which could ultimately lead to de-risking that pushes prices lower. vonnie: what is backing these positions? all one thing or just general risk in europe? or is it many things to be on what affects you are talking about? dean: i think there is a lot of crosscurrents right now. you guys were talking earlier about the euro not really
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falling to the extent you would asked acted -- you would expect it to. one of the relationships in the greece crisis in 2011 was the euro falling fast, and now it has been more stable. tom: brendan, this is the money question, euro stable but volatile high. brendan: here is what i want to understand about the models that are being revised. they interpreted a lack of volatility as a sign of safety. did we not learn that lesson five years ago? dean: right. it is so important that these models hands on backward-looking data. look at the swiss unpacking. that was a relationship that told you the volatility of the relationship between euro and swiss would be a 1% implied volatility. tom: that worked out. dean: that did not work out at all. so the sizing is wrong when you are looking backward. tom: frank eating with us with
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the american bankers association. this goes over the confidence of bankers because every banker even the little one, have a risk advisor saying wait. it is a most a global wait. frank: yeah it is a thunderstorm all the time, and you are not sure when the sun is going to come out again. depending on the size of the bank and the sophistication of the employees of the bank obvious the you can have and do have a different result. tom: here we are -- i like the idea of a thunderstorm all the time. you wonder how this works out just getting from tuesday to thursday. vonnie: dean what do you do when you see this implied volatility easing up? dean: our clients are asking us to think of strategies to help hedge u.s. equity risk. that is when the homebase market is -- we are buying call spreads on the vix buying put spreads another very impressive strategy. brendan: coming up, lie one man show -- barack obama says
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please any democrat say no, we had our district, too. we will hit that again next block. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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tom: ok, good morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we will do a little math here. stay with us worldwide. we will go into the bloomberg terminal and look at one of the amos functions of the terminal. this is the that forward of what the euro will do. the dean current with us with --
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dean curnutt with us with macro risk advisors. why is there one week out so much volatility in the euro? dean: i will buy the shortest hedge i can, and that is where the demand to be strong, why the vix can pop up a lot. tom: within the euro, that is the way it is, then you go out and you still get the bet on weaker euro as well. is this something you see before crisis, or can we say this is a normal market as personified by what the markets say about the euro? dean: the short thing implied volatility speaks to potentially folks getting closer to feeling alarmed. the longer data can be a function of qe, where people believe ultimately the ecb will push the euro lower. tom:'frank keating's clients want smooth curve, they want to
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be in control and all of that. you and i know it can be a jump condition. almost a black swan. how closer are we to observing these volatilities to a painful junk condition? frank: i think it is getting closer. brendan talked about blackrock looking at volatility, and the important thing is that volatility can breed more volatility, thought and i think we are there yet, but it is worth watching closely. brendan: again i do not think we properly understand the lack of volatility. it could mean still waters run deep. dean: hedging fatigue is a big back story here. hey, you should head your portfolio right now. you know what, the last three years or four years it has not paid to hedge, so the fatigue of listening to folks like me tell them to hedge i think it's part of the story. brendan: this is something that insurers understand that other financial service providers do not. he really have to keep your books say. dean: you have got to hedge around the tail risk that you really cannot account for.
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there is an aversion to do that. tom: you have got to stop talking, dean cunrnutt because spreads are widening as you talk. dean curnutt with macro risk advisors. 10208 basis points. that is an ugly number. vonnie: the prime minister of greece is excited to address his country's parliament this hour as european leaders hold an emergency meeting to address the debt crisis. the eurozone could hold a summit next sunday unless a stalemate is broken thursday when finance ministers break. a greece finance minister yanis her caucus -- but greece finance minister yanis varoufakis says greece is refusing to raise taxes or make further cuts. house republicans want more time to revise president obama's trade agenda. the committee delayed another
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trade vote until the end of july. it involves a bill that will compensate workers who lose their job because of free-trade legislation, and one ceo, jeff and melt of general electric, things -- jeff immelt thanks the u.s. needs this and talked about it with charlie rose. jeff: in two weeks, our export is expiring full so we are the only country on earth i will have those two things happen and they will both happen in the next two weeks, so i would say to people who are watching the show, guys, we can compete. this is a job creator. people think trade bills are for people like ge. i can globalize without them. vonnie: and you can see charlie rose's entire position with jeff immelt tonight at 7:00 eastern on bloomberg tv. goldman sachs has been for wall street, now it is turning to main street. they plan to online land for consumers.
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goldman plans to make the first loans next year. and gas will close a quarter of its stores. sales were falling for five straight quarters. 250 corporate jobs are also being cut. the first time in seven years the u.s. tops prerecession records. an organization that tracks such things say americans gave 358 billion dollars to charity last year, $47 billion more than in 2007. that is great news. tom: it is. also another sign of the recovery, and we begin a two-day fed meeting with important fed coverage coming tomorrow. let's look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. nothing about the fed overwhelmed by what we are seeing in europe. -11 earlier in uterus, right now -6 -- -11 earlier right now -6.
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euro remarkably stable, even with that fantastic volatility in crude oil, churning as well $59.73 west texas crude, but futures right now negative 7. brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am brendan greeley with tom keene. after failing to drag house democrats with him on trade on friday, the president spent the weekend on the phone. here is what white house press secretary josh earnest said yesterday for stop josh: there have been a number of conversations over the weekend and already today about the legislative path forward. the president and the rest of us here at the white house continue to be confident that there is strong bipartisan support for this approach. we just have to figure out how to untangle the legislative snafu in the house. brendan: think about the derivation of the word "snafu." it described the situation more
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accurately than i think josh earnest would like to describe it. chief washington correspondent peter cook tunes us from washington. peter, when i hear the word "bipartisan," should i hear the word "the democrats are not there"? peter: brendan, if the democrats were there, if the president had made inroads with his own party we would be having a vote today to move his trade agenda forward, yet the reality is we are not having a vote. instead, houston public and leaders after talking to the white house, and speaker boehner spoke to the president yesterday afternoon, they have decided to basically extend the time period here, give themselves a new deadline of the end of the month to try to wrap things up to her, and that is going to give them they hope, time for the president to work on fellow democrats, to get them on board his trade agenda, and perhaps get a few more republicans than the fold as well, but it is not a good sign. it is not on its deathbed right now certainly. it is getting some important resuscitation's. this is a trade agenda that is very much in trouble. brendan: peter, translated
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language coming from the white house. they say this is all "just procedural," it is a "legislative snafu." peter: what they are saying is there is a partisan support in both chambers for moving fast track trade authority forward. we have seen that in the votes. we had a successful vote in the senate, we also had a successful vote in the house, so on paper the reality is that is a legislative process in the way, by nancy pelosi and those opposed to what is happened so far with this bill know they have the upper hand they can stand anyway, and the reality is they are. tom: peter, the bottom line is nancy pelosi does not speak to jeff immelt. our charlie rose spoke to him and i'm sorry, it is about the elites of the world, a great guy out of dartmouth, mr. math guy, but the bottom line that is not who is upset about this for suck and this president speak to the americans who do not associate with mr. immelt?
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peter: well he has been trying to come and he has not had much success in swaying people although the public opinion polls on trade have changed in the last couple of weeks and months and improved, but that has not translated to rank-and-file democrats who had to actually go out and vote for this. the best reflection of that tom, is what we heard over the weekend and even yesterday on hillary clinton, her words of skepticism about this deal her support for nancy pelosi that tells us where the heart and soul of the democrat party is at this time -- it is not with the president. brendan: peter, we also have frank keating with us on the desk here, former governor of oklahoma, when we talk about the conversation around trade, what is it that you hear from your former constituents in oklahoma? frank: the problem is brendan there is such a dichotomy between the left and the right on this issue -- free-trade, anti-free trade -- a lot of people say all these free-trade deals, nafta and the like, reduce trade jobs, they just visit virginia, west virginia and furniture
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producing, there are not any jobs left. others say all these trade deals have really increased compliance. that has to be explained by the president. it has not been explained. if volatility, if you will, of the conversation is going to be awfully difficult to have a resolution because nobody believes the other side. brendan: this is the problem which is that economists tell you this nets out positive, but if it nets out positive with you, you have a hard time understanding this story. peter in d.c., real quick, what is it that the democrats are holding out for? peter: they would like to see a highway bill moved. they would like to see structural improvements to the fast track trade legislation, more requirements for labor standards, for environmental standards. they would like to be set up but if you do that, then you risk the transpacific partnership the negotiation is already underway, and that is the balancing act the president is in. brendan: all right, peter cook,
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our chief washington correspondent in d.c. thank you for staying on top of it. outward or question goes to greece. we asked -- are capital controls the next step for greece? let us know. tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance."
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tom keene, vonnie quinn, and brendan greeley as well. brendan: brian kelly, the point sky who explains airline points stephanie ruhle won this time he is going to be on "market makers." stephanie: no guest gives me lower self-esteem banthan brian, but he is here to talk about a rewards war going on between credit card company onies and airlines also is american express going to have to follow a lot more, follow different routes to win that battle because you're seeing more and more rewards programs whether it is that a citi or jpmorgan. it is not just frequent flyer miles -- that is what brian does. he monitors every credit card there is, every option you could have. brendan: the number of credit cards i think is in the 20's.
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stephanie: 25 credit cards. he still believes of between five american express offers his top two offerings. we will find out how long he think they will be able to hold onto that because it may not be for long. vonnie: this is so random, at the american express rewards points yesterday, the first time ever i had done it and iad something like 50,000 points to get an espresso machine, which is on sale at the moment for $90. stephanie: there you go. brendan: you can think of a points provider is a central bank, which controls the value of the points. are they increasing or decreasing and value right now? stephanie: decreasing. across the board, one with a decreasing in value, but remember what all of these companies have is so many people who said we do not use theirs, especially at the very high end. that is what we advertise. do you want to go to a show where jay-z is performing with
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only 1000 guests? brendan: we just so happen to have frank keating on set with us. frank: you have to understand at my age, all i care about is money, so i like cashback. vonnie: and the time involved, finding your awards number and typing it in. stephanie: i have never been able to use it once in my entire life, and i'm good on racking up bills, but we will find out from brian where that is. we have got to talk about under armour today. i am sure you guys of our recovered it. big news, kevin plank, the ceo sounds like has so much twisted the board, they have unanimously said they will reclassify their share so kevin can maintain control. at a time when so many ceo's are spending their time spending off activist investors, under armour has made a statement, "we do not plan on doing that." brendan: when i was watching the premier league under armour
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has made big events is into the premier league. stephanie: they have got stephen curry. he is the nba right now. brendan: do not miss brian kelly, the point sky, joining erik and stephanie on "market makers or go do not forget our question of the day -- are capital controls the next step for greece? ♪
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tom: and as we have done for seven years, the market moving up every sentence of a leader. in this case from athens, the leader from greece. mr. tsipras maybe some of that lost in translation. he addresses his parliaments, he addresses his people asked without question in the last 48 hours, the situation has unraveled. we say good morning to all of you particularly watching in greece and across europe as well. he is calming the markets ever so slightly, spreads are coming in a little bit over the last 10 minutes as mr. tsipras speaks here. let's get to top headlines with vonnie quinn.
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vonnie: thanks so much tom. in california the collapse of a balcony killed five people. some of them have life-threatening injuries. the cause is not known. an investment bank is reporting the second straight bond trading. jeffrey says bond trading revenues fell in the second quarter. jeffrey figures the results earlier than other competitors on wall street, which of course is the parent of jeffries, no movement in early trading. microsoft preview the next game in its halo franchise, and sony shows us some new games in final fantasy and several other series. tom: you nailed the jeffries thing. it is an early report. it really shows some of the tension about rationalizing
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. what is your two-year plan? some has to do with the statement of the yield curve but much more just on the future of how wall street actually moves paper. vonnie: right, and richard handler, the only thing he did to say was fixed income results improved each month during the quarters. tom: well, let's move to something i guess a little clearer. donald trump running today. he believes he can change the culture of washington. frank keating as a last name, he is the former governor of oklahoma. he is not running for president the only republican not so, and he is here to help us with what a number of people have called the clown car. are you embarrassed by your fellow republicans? frank: no, i think it is healthy. matter fact, the more people the better. the democrats have one candidate, apparently.
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they have several others on the sidelines for stop i think it is good to have a lot of people today and a lot of issues. the problem is they should have regional primaries where they draw lots and everyone sees all these candidate. we have what, 11 now, we will have 12, probably a baker's dozen soon. brendan: what is the happy medium between one candidate and 14 candidates? frank: well, if i were number one, i would think it is a wonderful medium. if i were number 14 -- brendan: what is your shortlist of the five who actually have a shot in the republican primary? frank: i was surprised -- was in the top five yesterday. i think scott walker obviously marco rubio certainly very articulate, jeb bush, not only because of his name -- and i have a say in the interest of full disclosure, number one because i represent a federally regulated it industry, number two, job and i served as governors. he is the best of the bushes. tom: what is the character trait
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you observe when you go back to mr. bush senior's father, the senator from connecticut a lifetime ago? frank: i do not know senator bush, but in my case, i worked for president h w. he was into the cold war because of what ronald reagan started. tom: why is jeb bush the best of the bushes? frank: he understands issues, in my judgment, he covered florida more conservatively than ronald reagan governed california. he cut taxes, grew jobs -- tom: this is critical. frank: and he is a humble guy. humility is hugely important. tom: the nation is changing away from your republican party. does he have a leg up because he is from florida and he can handle the interesting domestic politics of florida? frank: yesterday i watched his announcement, and i have to say he is speaking flawless spanish and then jeb speaking briefly
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very excellent spanish. i think that is important in this country. we have a very dynamic minority marketplace. the latino community is very significant. the republicans, people think have washed them out. jeb will discuss issues. he is compassionate intelligent, he is a very decent guy, but we have a good set of candidates, and who knows whether he will end up as our candidate? brendan: we talked of a graphics but policy sometimes matters will stop if you are going to compare the bushes the brothers at least, you can do it on education. if you look at jeb's initiative in florida it has been taken on as a model from republican governors elsewhere indiana for example. no child left behind is something all governors republican and democrats, are running away from. if you look at that basic one issue, that is something that job does seem like he can run on. frank: i brought four years of chartered choice to a democratic
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legislature in my state. in jeb's case, let's make the state the best educated state and the union. that was basically his agenda and the scores went way up. the whole issue with common core and no child left behind is keep washington out of it, and i think most governors of both parties agree with that, but jeb clearly got a hold of the education agenda and did a wonderful job for florida. but again, we have other governors who are running come other senators who have legislative experience that feel they have done similarly, but i have just that to say i think it is good to have this debate. we have got to work out -- tom: do you lose your women's vote because of secretary clinton? is it so important that she is a woman the signs around that republican women will go over and support mrs. clinton? frank: clearly, mrs. clinton, a woman candidate for president as a threat to a male candidate republican. that is i think beginning to get some less, but the reality is a defense on how active just bush -- jeb bush's serious are, his
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mother and his wife, we will see. tom: you really credit very nicely there. brendan: elegantly done thing he could not way in, but he almost put his thumb on the scale. we're not going to go back to him on that. tom: are you supporting mr. bush right now jacob i have got to make some news this morning. frank: i am seriously neutral. he is a front, and i wish him well. [laughter] brendan: my agenda today, i am looking at the trade bill. we are looking at the culture of trade today, and we are basically taking a positive legislation while we have a conversation we should have been having for a long time, which even though it is net positive, what do you do for those it does not net well? vonnie: my agenda is the housing data at 8:30 a.m. eastern should give us an idea of how the housing market is shaping up in the second quarter. housing starts for may and also building permits. that might inform a little bit
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of debate tomorrow with the fomc. tom: my agenda, the headline, mr. tsipras says greece needs solution for financing to continue. there is a point here where you forget about the nuance and it has been painful bank liquidations and that. we will find out where that is in 30 days. they do not have 30 days. brendan: i do not know that they have 7. vonnie: hans' point was very good that greece is trying to split up the creditors. time to answer our are capital controls the next step for greece? request of the day. are capital controls the next step for greece?-- time to answer out twitter question of the day. our question -- are capital controls the next step for greece? will they be anyway effective? brendan: oz nichols said you've got iceland, you have got cyrp prus, the actual physical geography matters. vonnie: second answer --
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deficits, yes, tax flow restrictions do work however painful. the iceland, brazil, china. a lot of people are referencing others. third answer -- capital controls are for the remaining idiots. tom: there is a lot to that. there is a lot about who owns this debt now. brendan: it definitely who owns the debt is not the same as two years ago, and we have been watching capital leaving greece in personal and corporate. tom: there it is again, mr. tsipras speaking now, and markets modestly calmed by his discussion. the 10-year yield, 2.33%, but we look at the spread marketing and the spread spanish spread widening out to where it was in october, and the greece spread coming in a little over that key 12 percentage point level as well. we have got much more for you through the morning, particularly on the market
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reaction, the new volatility is out there. they with bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. frank, thank you. does the donald say something today? brendan: i cannot wait! tom: the donald says something today. ♪
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>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york this is "market makers." stephanie: good morning. this is "market makers." i am thrilled to be back.
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erik: welcome back. i am erik schatzker. a leader is saying it will take a miracle to avoid the fall in greece. we would hear the latest from our man in athens. stephanie: we will hear from some investors also. on the agenda, yahoo! ceo marissa mayer. under armour wants to create a new class of stock. american express and the challenges of the credit card business. we have a lot to cover. erik: we should get this hour started with our most important stories. greece is what we will begin with. if there will be a compromise on greece, it will not come from the greek side. the country will not make any more concessions in time for thursday's meeting of european finance ministers. prime minister is s

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