francine: tsipras rips into the international monetary fund accusing it of criminal responsibility. rates under review. will the greek -- play into the federal reserve decision? we'll -- will the numbers give us any clue as to when the bank might raise rates from their all time low? so, welcome to "the pulse" live

here in london. i'm francine lacqua. first to greece and tensions are rising as a deadline to find a solution to the country's debt crisis approaches. greece's prime minister slammed the international monetary fund and the european central bank and it addressed to the greek parliament. angela merkel struck a more measured tone saying that she would do everything possible to keep greece in the euro. we are in athens. hans nichols joins us from berlin. tsipras talking very tough on creditors. will -- was this speech aimed at them or domestic audience? >> i think it was aimed at all parties. it was not only for internal consumption. the hardest rhetoric towards the

imf accusing it of criminal irresponsibility. accusing me ecb -- the ecb of asphyxiating the economy. athens remains defined as ever. tsipras is really pushing things here as the deadlock remains. the two sides are not even speaking to each other directly anymore. they are only communicating to the media. we don't expect much from the eurogroup meeting tomorrow. tsipras flies to st. petersburg to participate in the economic form there and will meet with president putin friday. we do not know if this is just a negotiating trick or part of a plan to really strengthen the relationship with the brics. now the interesting thing right now in athens is we are going to have to protest tomorrow and today. one today is a pro-government one one that asks for the end

of austerity. the other one tomorrow calls for a pro-european stance and people will participate that are supporting of the euro. the big news yesterday in athens was rumor about the imf not paying the sum of the end of the month. then we will have to see the ecb's response on the ela. hans has more light shed on this issue. francine: thank you. talking about the ecb, what are we expecting today? hans: they are telegraphing clearly that the one metric that the european central bank will look for is solvency. are the greek banks solvent? we heard from mario draghi monday. he was clear at this stage, they are solvent. he gave a long explanation of

that. yesterday we heard from class con -- claus kahn. he says and there is business as usual until there is a default. it is unclear whether he was talking about a default on the technical sense which would be adjudicated or whether a default is a missed payment to the imf. we are looking for clarity on that. we also are looking for clarity on whether or not there have been any conversation since last night between greece and their creditors. juncker said that there has been no contact since sunday. he was also pretty critical of mr. tsipras not by name but more by talking about the speech in general. he had a very important quote p at his up the was with the greek people but not with the government. you see mr. juncker being critical of the greek

negotiating position in the context of what happens on june 30. we did hear from the french finance minister this morning. he said you do not want to go into the unknown. no one know what happens on june 30. a lot of urgency being circled around that june 30 day. not a lot of urgency on this luxembourg conference. i'll leave later today. it will be thursday and friday. no one is expecting any sort of deal. maybe you could ask the bosses in london why i'm going to luxembourg of no one says there is going to be a deal? i still kind of want to go and visit anyhow. francine: luxembourg is great for tourism. maybe there is a benchmark on how acrimonious the talks are. even if we do not did a deal, you'll have to give me a salcecald e from one to zero if there is progress. how must we know about greek companies putting your cash are

in getting ready for capital controls? >> most companies are ready for the big turbulence in greece. some of them have experienced it from cyprus because there -- they have business there. they have the history of capital controls and cyprus. they know how to deal with these things. the problem is that if it happens, then it is really uncharted territory for the country. we expect short-term turbulence. the companies expect that as well. most of them, especially the medium to large ones, are prepared for a scenario like that. there is word on the street that they are always preparing a grexit scenario as well. until it happens and you see the reaction of the market we do not have a clear picture ahead of us of what company should be expecting.

i must say 30% drop in sales is expected within the first few weeks. and we will take it from there. francine: thank you so much. hans will be live in berlin throughout the day before making his way to luxembourg. for more on greece, we are joined by our guest. good morning too. i am not sure if i should be worried or not because the markets are not worried. at the same time it is getting so nasty that maybe at some point it will be result. they just need to let it all out and then they will sign a paper saying we are friends again? ricardo: i think the markets actually are worried about the situation in greece. you see it from the spreads on european bonds. equities are also rising in.-- pricing in the fact that if we have major problems in greece,

central banks of be more cautious including the fed. i do not take necessarily -- the good performance of equities as a sign that the markets are not worried. francine: do you find it difficult? can you give me a probability? how difficult is it now to give a probability on whether they will default or not? riccardo: the default -- it is a question of whether a default versus the imf. i think the deal still is the most rational outcome. we are just seeing posturing. of course, over the next few days, we must seen signs of the move to a more conciliatory tone, because otherwise it is difficult and less than two weeks to come to a deal that could be approved by the european parliament. so there has to be at some point a bit of a change in direction. francine: once you label the imf

"criminal," for me, my gut feeling is that there is no point of return. if the greek government they are playing too close to the fire. riccardo: only tsipras knows why he said that. i still think, given how good they have been so far in negotiating from their own point of view, they are still bargaining. however, my point is also that even if we have a deal on this, this problem will not go away because then there is the issue of a third adjustment. and there is the issue of whether markets will trust this government. and byuyb bonds. and my answer is probably not. so there is a need for more official financing there will be more pressure on the ecb. i do not think the greek en

trepreneurs will be taking the deposit back into greek banks. there will be perhaps an improvement in the balance between the central bank and the ecb and the inflow of deposits, but i do not think all the money that flowed out will be coming back in. francine: we were talking about the yields. we saw the 10-year span a shield above 2.5% yesterday and then it went back down -- the 10-year spanish yields. riccardo: we have now even seen the bank of france saying we do have a problem because dealers are unable to resolve these flows. francine: we'll talk about the fed and a minute but do you think we will have something in september or are they going to wait because it is so much more dangerous to raise interest rates and go back? riccardo: our view is that the

fed will not raise rates this year. i think the fomc members are working under the assumption they are moving towards a rate hike in september. many things can happen between now and then. francine: thank you so much. we will talking about the bank of england and more on the fed. here is a look at what else is on our radar. the federal reserve open market committee will conclude its two day meeting later today as investors want a sign of its first interest rate increase. policy makers will percent quarterly for christ -- fore casts. after that, janet yellen will hold a news conference. now, lawmakers in hong kong has begun their debate on possible elections for the territories chief executive in 2017. the china backed proposal would give hong kong citizens a vote. now thousands of locals have

taken to the streets to protest against the plan. billionaire businessman donald trump has declared he is running for the republican 2016 u.s. presidential candidate. he issued a financial disclosure, claiming a net worth of $8.7 billion dollars. if elected, he said he would bring back american jobs and money. donald trump: our country is in serious trouble. we do not have victories anymore. when was the last time anybody saw us beating let's say china in a trade deal? they kill us. i beat china all the time. all the time. francine: it was quite a speech. let's take a look at what else we have coming up. at 9:30, we get u.k.

unemployment figures. then at 9:45, we have a report on pakistan's low-cost homemade fighter jet which has just won its first order. 10:00, we have eurozone construction output and inflation data. stay tuned to the "the pulse." time for today's twitter question. janet yellen and christine lagarde are both talking. which one will you tune in for? tweet me. that will be my first question to riccardo after the break. ♪

>> i am not sure they draw direct correlation between what we do in terms of delivering that experience and what is going on with the organization. as a partner to fifa we are supportive of what they are doing and investigating and evaluating how best to deal with the future. francine: that was the ceo of electronic arts, the video games maker behind the fifa series. now, it is fed decision day.

for more, we are back with the chief european economist riccardo barbieri. when we went to break, first of all, thank you for sticking around, i was talking about our twitter question. both christine lagarde will be speaking in brussels. she is meant to talk about inequality and she will be asked about greece. she speaks at 7:30 pl.m., same time as yellen. what will you be listening to? riccardo: obviously yellen. when the fed speaks, you want to listen. we know what christine lagarde thinks about the greek situation from what was published on the website of the imf. so, i think the statement of the fed, the new forecast will be very important. the market will pay most attention to the forecast. so the so-called dot- forecast. francine: the fed is difficult because they had good figures printed unemployment is a little

bit slack in terms of the number of people not in full employment. what is your take? riccardo: essentially there are two different stories, two things going on in the economy. the sectors that are more exposed to the dollar exchange rate and to an energy prices are in a mini recession. although, i must say it is a contraction of 1%. in the sectors that are more sensitive to interest rates, including housing, seem to be doing well. employment growth is still picked up in the last two months. so, if there was a way for the fed not to cause any -- in the d ollar, but at the same time raise rights, that would be the right policy. i think that remains the game plan of the fomc, that they want to raise rates this year. and to do so at a slow pace.

reassessing the impact on the economy, the impact on financial markets. not following the approach of the previous cycle, when we had 25 basis points at each meeting. it was called a measured approach. we were coming from 1% rate which was unprecedented in recent history. as being very low at the time. and greenspan decided to go slowly. but it was one at each meeting. this time around, the fed clearly does not want to follow that approach. i think today we may see from the projections that the long-term fed rate has declined a bit in the expectation of fomc members. francine: we are also expecting me mpc meeting for the bank of england. whether you're expecting them to raise interest rates? riccardo: if we follow our u.s. forecast, which is the fed

raises rates next year, the bank of england will also move next year. i personally do not see them moving before the fed. as lon asg as there are problems in europe, in terms of the range, i would say the fed anytime from september onwards as possible in my opinion given the current state of play. and that is the bank of england may also move before the end of the year. francine: thank you so much for all of that. riccardo barbieri there. up next, find out which gaming company is not convinced about virtual reality yet. all of that coming up on "the pulse." ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse" streaming on your tablet installment bloomberg.com. we have been covering greece throughout the day. we are hearing from the bank of greece cheief saying that a deal with creditors would avert risk. saying that a failure to come up with talks on the bailout would be an exit. however, we have not heard that from a greek official yet. he said an agreement with creditors is necessary. this is according to the bank of greece cheief. if they do have to exit the euro

he will have the toughest job to try to ensure stability for their currency and for the country. let's talk tech. yahoo! has confirmed it plans to spin off its stake in alibaba. shares rose 2.3% after marissa mayer's says she is confident about the plan. caroline hyde is here with the latest. can you tell us about marissa mayers'comments? caroline: this was at a bloomberg tech conference. three years at the top of yahoo!, she had plenty of trouble trying to lure in advertisers. but everyone is obsessed about their stake in alibaba. what they are trying to do is a 40 billion stake. they are trying to offload to their investors without having to pay tax. there would be a 35% tax rate. they have done financial structuring and feel they will be able to remove that tax payment until the tax agency

said they were looking at these talks. marissa mayers: it is the contemplated changes that have been communicated to date do not apply to previously received requests for ruling. we filed for it well in advance of when these changes were communicated. caroline: they are ready filed for it. the tax agency said, you're ok. francine: there is gamers. caroline: they will all be obsessing about e3, happening in l.a. you have got google's youtube announcing its gaming app. a way you can watch other people playing games.

this is ripping off what amazon has with twitch. and that also talk about the microsoft team. v.r., virtual reality. in microsoft and sony have been trying to show off their latest headsets. we spoke to electronic arts. we'd heard from them about fifa. we spoke to them about v.r. they are not so excited. >> we are actively looking at our core platform and our core franchises and trying to figure out the best way to immerse players into virtual reality. these are early days. i do not expect you will see something profound in the next few months. caroline: potentially when it comes to playing football by gaming he is thinking it will take some time. meanwhile, everyone is desperate to get their hands on the xbox headset. the hulu lens, they are playing

with that. much more about gaming in the next two days. francine: thank you. that is almost it. back in two. we will talk about the mpc minutes and unemployment in the u.k. ♪

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fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live in london. i francine lacqua. we are just getting breaking news from bank of england. we have the minutes for june and unemployment. that unemployment figures staying at 5.5%, matching estimates. wage growth actually accelerated to 2.7%. now, this is really the big one. if wage growth accelerates, it means there is more confidence in the economy. it may mean we are going to get an interest rate sooner than expected.

the pound rising to a four-week high at 1.5709 after the jobs data. the boe minutes, voting and interest rates unchanged. the bond purchase was 9-0. you can see the pound up the most in four weeks at 1.675712. here are the top headlines. three greek prime minister says the imf bears criminal responsibility for the situation in the country. the comments prompted jack lew to call tsipras to urge him to reach a compromise with its creditors and christine lagarde is due to speak in brussels later today. lawmakers in hong kong have begun their debate on possible elections for the territories chief executive in 2017. the china backed proposal would give hong kong citizens of phot from a list of candidates

approved by beijing. thousands of locals have taken to the streets to protest against the plan. the billionaire businessman and television personality donald trump has declared he is running for the republican 2016 u.s. presidential nomination. as required of all candidates trump issued a financial disclosure statement. claiming that worth of $8.7 billion. he is promising to bring back american jobs and their money. now, when sections were placed on russia as a result of a lack think right the are, -- of annex ing crimea, top official said that russia could become stronger. bloomberg spoke with chris we -- about whether this could be true. chris: i am the senior partner with macro advisory limited. the trigger of sanctions in march of last year was the referendum in crimea.

the people voted to depart the russian federation and the perception of the west was orchestrated by the kremlin. sanctions have not worked at all. they have added pressure to the economy, but they certainly by no means destroyed the c --- were the cause of the recession. on the political side, the sanctions have greatly increased public support for the president. his approval rating is now standing at well above 80%. russia can become a stronger as a result of sanctions. i think that is clear. russia -- that was one of the few retaliatory actions that carried through. it helps the government to push forward an in port substitutions agenda. it is a clear message to the people saying, look, we import all of this food. that makes us vulnerable. russia should be able to grow

our own food. in that area, it has work to the advantage of the kremlin. francine: now, it has been a year since those sanctions on russia were imposed but that has not stopped russian efforts through international investors or tomorrow, vladimir putin will begin courting them at his annual economic form. ryan, put the st. petersburg international economic forum in perspective for us. ryan: russia has, i do not know, half dozen important economic forums but this is the one. this is the russian president's forum. it really is putin's forum. and so, if you're interested in doing business in russia if you're interested in invested, this is the one you have to show up.

that is why europe's three biggest oil companies will be here. shell and bp will be here. that is why the greek prime minister will be here. he met the russian president in. he will bring a bunch of of businessmen with him. we will look at what it is like to do business in russia right now with the sanctions, with the geopolitical backdrop, with economic issues. are there any opportunities? how hard is the country hurting? we are going to have a whole host of really interesting people we will talk to, including the country's top economic official. charlie rose will have a conversation with the russian president. we are even going to talk to one of the country's top models. so, we are going to look at the situation here in the country from an investment perspective starting today right through friday. francine: this sis your eighth

forum. give us a sense of how it compares to other years. a lot of focus is on tsipras because of the ongoing crisis in greece. ryan: eighth forum, thanks for reminding me. the atmosphere is more upbeat than last year. there are more participants from emerging markets. maybe that is not saying much. last year was really rough. the forum last year was moved up to may, as opposed it normally takes place in june, because rusher was going to host the g-8 in sochi. that it got canceled because of russia's actions in ukraine. then the sanctions were imposed then the u.s. government told business leaders not to come to the forum. this year, the u.s. government has implemented a do not ask

don't tell. businesses are not being told not to come. but there are new issues. you mentioned missiles. the russian president, the geopolitical backdrop remaining, saying that russia will add 40 i cbm's. not a good comment for business. the economy tanking, expecting to contract by 4%. but there is an opportunity perhaps for greece to get perhaps some kind of assistance from russia if not now, down the road. this should be an interesting one. francine: i am looking forward to coverage in st. petersburg. this friday, you can, as ryan w as mentioning, watch charlie rose in conversation with vladimir putin. that's right here on bloomberg tv. we will bring you that coverage from noon u.k. time. i want to recap what we heard in the last seven minutes. we had a significant employment

figure from the u.k. first of all, we saw wage growth accelerate. this is as u.k. unemployment stayed as low since 2008. wage growth has been accelerating more than economists predicted. the improving labor market especially wage growth, is underpinning consumer spending. this is the picture for the pound in terms of what it is done. you can see it rising to a four week high. apparently, we heard from the boe on the rate vote. the mpc keeping the benchmark rate at 0.5%. but the interesting bit is that they talk about inflation. the factors they mention is that lowering inflation is likely to dissipates very shortly. they were mentioning wage growth. the contentious point is oil impact, because the mpc was divided.

some say it was less than anticipated. others expect effects on spending. so the affect the oil price rise will have on spending in the future. this is what to watch out for and it will be we understand the data on inflation will determine whether rates will rise or not. we will have plenty more on that. up next, could wearable tech save lives in emerging economies? ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from london. the wearable devices maker fitbit has boosted its initial public offering to as high as $656 million amid strong demand for its shares. it highlights what wearable teach is.-- tech is. they have joined forces with unicef. caroline hyde is here along with unicef's u.k. head of innovation and the arm holdings executive vice president. thank you for joining us. how much do people know about how much wearable devices and technology can make a difference to children around the world in emerging economies? katherine: it is our best kept

secret at unicef. we have been working for 10 years now in taking technology into developing countries. some of the things we were trimming about 10 years ago around how you might use real-time data, we are seeing coming to fruition now. you would not have been able to imagine that in nigeria today. all the births are registered. in ruwanda by giving health care workers mobile phones, you're able to at the touch of a button say how many pregnant women there are, which children have been vaccinated, who needs to have an operation for cleft lip. that information is there at the touch of a button. a lot of people in this country like to have that data. caroline: you struck a partnership with chip designer arm. based in the u.k. tell us about what you said because you have a partnership.

in the shorter term, there is challenge that six months, come up with a cost-effective device. ian: if you look at the way arma dn unicef work together. we have been working together for the last three years on various projects around the world and we said, how do we formalize this into something fairly creative and unique? so it is not an intuitive marriage, but we sat down and went, we have a big ecosystem. unicef has reach and labs. how do we use both of these to open up opportunities throughout thr oe world? francine: what kind of support are you giving to unicef? ian: firstly we are putting money into this. secondly, providing resources around the world to help unicef labc. thirdly, we have a challenge which enables arm's engineers

along with unicef to concretely built two or three different projects from this challenge with mentoring, with scope for adding engineering and resources in really to start growing your opportunities around the world. caroline: this is focused and maternal health, and child health. what are you hoping for? what excitement have you drummed up? katherine: we really are paying the question of could wearable tech be the next mobile revolution? the challenge itself, we find more information on the website wearablegood.com. it launched a few weeks ago. we are looking for entries from around the world. you have until august 4 to enter. there are questions we are asking. what if we could find a wearable device that would support women

in rural africa who do not have access to health care? what if we could monitor her pregnancy? there are thousands of women who die around the world every day in childbirth or pregnancy related causes. what if we could put a wearable device into a slum in nairobi. francine: this would be for the mothers, not midwives? katherine: we are taking a broad definition of wearables. it could be for the mothers. a wearable contract information, it can send it. it can be a two-way communication device. we are posing a broad question around how they can be used. caroline: how cheap for this become? fitbit is a costly device. in the developing world, how can you keep the price point so low? ian: we are seeing wearable

bands that track your movement for as low as $12 now on the market. i suspect these will be single dollar devices that will grow in voolume. if you want to target these markets, you need innovative markets and what they do. it needs to be single dollars. that it is to be targeted uniquely where they are. francine: this is for the device. but you need an infrastructure. when you have these devices, i need to plug it into internet. how do you build that infrastructure, because that seems to me crucial. katherine: what unicef is bringing to the table that if you look at arm's ecosystem of the tech community and unicef has delivery partners. we have experience of working with the ministries of health, building the sms

infrastructure. we have got national scale in some of those pieces of technology. francine: and national support? are the governments going, please come in? katherine: so, yes. if you look at the example in you can do, we started with mobile health care devices. -- if you look at the example in uganda. that is owned by the ministry of health. higher education has been taken over by the ministry of education review you cannot do these things on your own. this is where unicef brings a unique convening power with those different parties. francine: thank you for joining us. now up next, details of the new report that says walmart owns more than $76 billion of assets through units in offshore tax

havens. that is our focus next. ♪

>> i do not think it would be a smart move for me to return to standup comedy. look, i get heckled for free now. why travel to des moines and go to the lughaugh track?

the beauty of the platform as i can get heckled in real-time. francine: that was the outgoing twitter ceo. now, here are bloomberg's other top headlines. a new report has found that walmart owns more than $76 billion in assets through offshore tax havens around the world, none of which are mentioned in u.s. securities findings. overseas operations have helped the company cut $3.5 billion off its income tax bills in six years according to the study. now yahoo! ceo marissa mayer says the company is proceeding with the alibaba spin off. shares moved higher while mayer spoken bloomberg's technology conference. marissa mayer: we are proceeding

with our plan based on an understanding of a few things. one is the contemplated changes communicated to date don't applied to previously received requests for rolling. our ruling we filed for it well in advance of when these changes were communicated. the other thing that gives us confidence is it does not seem that these proposed changes actually are contemplating changing the applicable law it is more about the process. es around this type of changes. francine:virgin atlantic''s ceo says they are on track for improvement. the airline posted its first annual profit since 2011. >> the transatlantic business is strong. it is why we have moved our assets into that. but that does not mean we are not still focused on the rest of the world. any place where brits want to go, and there is a good

population that was to visit the u.k., we want to make sure we are there. francine: pakistan has secure the first buyer for its homemade fighter jet. the gf-17 made its flight debut at the paris air show. bloomberg spoke to the pakistani air force about the jet. >> it is a very very -- fast project. not only in the designing development, but the production. under the supervision and under the guidance of our political leadership, they decided that come wha tmay, 00-- come what may, we have to develop this capability. i am an air marshal. this aircraft is definitely a high tech aircraft but a very affordable cost for a country like pakistan.

as far as this project is concerned, we initially decided that some of the parts we would definitely go light. we should have state-of-the-art avionics. we finalize some of the investment -- but the circumstances did not favor us. and there was very severe sanctions from investment companies. now if we have to make a fighter aircraft, we will not wait for so long to get clearances from west. tie and again -- time and again, china has proven its friendship. we have to realize the sages would not stop us for having are just to meet our just

requirements. whenever a country acquires for self-defense something, it is of liability on other countries who come forward and offered the same thing. you can definitely come. with the class of anything closer to f-16. i am a fighter pilot. i look after the operational and development aspect, but 1/3 price of any comparable fighter. there is a country who is definitely -- and we are very close to talking these points with a dozen or more countries. there he soon, we'll be able to release good news to our joint partners. francine: for those listening on bloomberg radio, "the first word" is up next. this is what we have coming your way. first of all, we talk about the greek crisis. today at 7:30 p.m. we hear from

christine lagarde. we will also hear from janet yellen. we focus on greece. we focus on the fomc. ina couple minutes we have figures out of the eurozone for construction and inflation coming up. ♪

francine: blame game. tsipras rips into the imf. will the imf chief respond? despite the uncertainty in greece, europe's stock strategists are 100% bullish. good morning to our viewers in europe. welcome to those just waking up in the united states.

i'm francine lacqua. this is "the pulse." we are also joined by ian bremmer, talking about russia talking about refugees, and talking about greece. first, to greece. tensions are rising as a deadline to find a solution to the debt crisis approaches. alexis tsipras ratcheted up the rhetoric yesterday. angela merkel struck a more measured town, saying that she would do everything possible. constant goals joins us now -- hans nichols joins us now. what does jack lew have to say to tsipras? hans: jack lew called tsipras and he urged him to take serious steps, serious action.

it was the essence of what he said when he was in london three weeks ago. we have heard from the greek central banker talking about the disastrous consequences if you did have a credit event in greece, urging all sides together -- to come together. it seems as though how the morning is going what will the european central bank do? will it propose haircuts on the collateral? they are at 83 billion right now. how much more will they agree to liquidity assistance? all of this is ahead of the european finance ministers meeting in luxembourg that starts tomorrow. expectations are pretty low for that. there is talk about an emergency meeting later next week. guy:francine: are we expecting

anything from the ecb? hans: this is an incredibly tight rope that the ecb has to walk. it is a question of if they really go in little too far they could end up being the proximate cause for some sort of baking -- banking crisis. you could have capital controls being imposed because the ecb was a little too strident. when you look at what central bankers have been saying publicly they are indicating that, as long as there is not a missed payment it is business as usual. that indicates to me that the ecb might not want to get too far in front of the politicians. francine: thank you so much. we also have an inflation figure

out of the euro area. main consumer prices increased 0.3% from last year. let's get more on greece with one of the smartest men on this. eurasia group president ian bremmer, also the author of " superpower." i want to start on europe and greece. from your perspective, are we going to get a deal or not? it seems like this negotiation is not a negotiation anymore. once you call the imf criminals. ian: it is not nice. i think we should applaud tsipras certainly there would be no other greek government that would have gotten so much out of the germans at this point and people need to take the long view and understand that.

this is a government that was voted in on the back of a depression in greece. it was a radical left-wing government that has promised they will get as far as they possibly can. so much of the megaphone that you see is really oriented at the domestic greek government. i believe a deal is coming. that deal is going to be made easier for them politically precisely because they have given as hard as they have. you cannot go through this degradation and expected to not be dirty and nasty and go down to the wire. francine: if this actually gets even more acrimonious and there is no deal and there is a default and they have to come up with an alternative currency -- ian: i think they will be surprised. 85% of the greek people want to stay in the euro.

you have heard from the greek government that they want to stay. the left-wing of the ruling party has different perspectives. if you are the prime minister you have to be asking yourself, when i cut this deal how many of my members are going to defect? i cannot have regime change. that is going to play into the german hands. he has to be supporting his constituents. varoufakis is his own entity. tsipras is every bit a greek patriot. i'm not saying the germans should be applauding him or the bureaucrats or the imf should be, but anyone interested in the position of the actual greek people and their well-being -- certainly, the greek citizens should be applauding the prime minister at this point. francine: what about spain? they look at greece -- if they

are playing tough and get a better deal, why are we trying to do the same? ian: of course there will be some of that. there is not another economy in the euro that is in the position that greece is in. the inability basically to provide basic employment and sustainable life for the greek people. secondly, pademos has nowhere near the level that the ruling party in greece does. if they do achieve that level they would not be governing by themselves. they would have to be governing with one of the establishment parties. in portugal, there is not even an analog. they have been very focused on the existing establishment parties in the country. i don't think that there really is a tumbledown moment. i think that gives angela merkel

more flexibility to take a softer line publicly and focus more on the geopolitics and the importance of maintaining the institution of the european union. francine:+++ tweet from the european union hadead. he says it is still possible to reach an agreement on greece. on merkel, you think all of these imaginations mean it is easier -- machinations mean it is easier to give into something . the lawmakers are fed up with the antics of greece. ian: shocking. the fact that the germans are not willing to take any accountability for how we got into this mess does not surprise me. merkel understands better. at the end of the day she is a

multilateralist and an institutionalist. she may not be much of a global leader. you see this about germany's relations with china. she has clearly played a big role on ukraine. if you think about china as the rising power the americans and the brits and the french and many countries are thinking about what it means for the institutions. the germans are going insane, let's do a bilateral economic deal. it is very commercial. ultimately merkel wants a system that is rule-based. the persistence of the european union and the eurozone is something that is so core and fundamental to what germany stands for and what miracle stands for, that i think you have to have -- she is still in a perfectly strong position in germany.

we are talking about a greek crisis that is playing out now. if you want to talk about what happens in six months after a deal life could be different for merkel at that point. i'm not suggesting i feel great about the european outlook over the medium-term but i do think we are in reasonable positions politically as we enter into the endgame on this individual bailout. francine: thank you so much for now. we will also get your thoughts on brexit. ian bremmer is staying with us. here's a look at what else is on our radar. the federal reserve open market committee will conclude a two-day meeting later. policymakers will present quarterly accounts for barling costs, after which janet yellen will hold a news conference.

figures out this morning show wage growth accelerated more than expected. minutes from the bank of england show that factors are holding back the u.k. economy. benchmark interest rates were voted to keep at a record low. billionaire businessman and television personality donald trump has declared he is running for the u.s. republican 2016 presidential nomination. as required of all candidates he issued a financial disclosure statement before his announcement claiming net worth of $8.7 billion. trump promised that he would bring back america's jobs and their money. >> our country is in serious trouble. we don't have victories anymore. we used to have victories.

but we don't have them. when was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, china in a trade deal? they kill us. i beat china all the time, all the time. francine: we will also talk about donald trump with ian bremmer. literally holding his head in his hands as we go through the speech. janet yellen and christine lagarde will be speaking at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. tell us. you can tweet me. ian bremmer is also on twitter. ♪

francine: welcome to "the pulse." eurasia group president ian bremmer is still with us. thank you for sticking around. we have to speak about donald trump. he is running to become president of your country. ian: yeah. francine: what a speech. ian: yeah. francine: you wrote extensively about this. is it the lowest in u.s. politics for a while? ian: it is a $5 billion, 18 months election, which is a debacle.

it is not the way a democracy should be run. we understand that. it creates also incentives for people who are not aligned with american national and its development to make a meal of this and donald trump is the worst example that we have seen as money has play the kind of role that it has in the u.s. economy. it is unfortunate. we will all talk about it. he will probably be in the top 10 in terms of name recognition. you will get him on stage. francine: is there a chance he gets nominated? ian: of course not. the point is that he is an ardent xenophobia. he represents the worst's successes of the united states. he can only do damage to the credibility of america, as part of this process. francine: he is the u.s.

berlusconi. ian: he is much worse than berlusconi. berlusconi's italy, so it does not matter if you have a clown car. when you look at some of the statements that he makes about mexico, about china, about iran, about isis, and you understand that this level of jingoism this level of chest thumping which will play with some piece of the american electorate -- even if they understand he is a clown they still will say someone is out there speaking -- it is precisely the inauthenticity of the average person running for the presidency that allows someone like trump to get air time and space. i do think he has the ability to damage the process, even though he has no possibility of winning the nomination. i do think it is unfortunate. i think the more opinion leaders that can get up and say that

hopefully that can help to reduce some of the damage that will come. francine: you have a new book out called "superpower." what single piece of advice would you give to the u.s. right now? ian: one of the reasons i wrote this book is because obama's approval ratings are in the 30's on foreign policy. america is allies -- america's allies are all asking, what does america stand for? they are behaving in different ways because they do not know. the british art joining -- are joining the china-based infrastructure bank. this concern, the fact that u.s.-led global institutions and standards are starting to erode and the only countries with a global strategy today is not the united states, it is china is

something that should unnerve anyone who watches bloomberg and anyone who focuses on the global market. the chinese are not trying to make the world liberal, democratic, or free market. they are trying to orient countries to chinese standards. francine: is this because china is focused -- they know what they are selling, or is it because the politicians are the smartest people in the country? ian: no, they certainly have plenty of people -- plenty of smart people, but they have a long-term strategy. it is not a military strategy. but economically, they can compete. they can bat well above their weight because they are setting money strategically the way that the americans are not.

the absence of a foreign-policy strategy in the united states right now is completely allowing the chinese to make up a lot of ground in challenging u.s.-led global standards, ultimately including the dollar. in the near term the support for multinational corporations these things are very critical for the functioning of the global economy. francine: we will talk about russia and a couple of minutes. we have never had such a crisis on how to deal with refugees since 1945. ian: that's right. francine: we don't talk about it enough. ian: you don't talk about it enough. the americans do not care. the u.s. has accepted less than 1000 refugees thus far. you would think that the statue of liberty does not exist in the

united states. you have not one candidate in the united states saying, we should accept the syrian refugees. for europe, this is a disaster. for jordan and lebanon and turkey, this is a disaster. the fact that the europeans are incapable of getting together to actually form a coherent policy to address -- francine: is that surprising? ian: it does not surprise me, but it implies that the scale of the crisis is inadequate to push the europeans to respond. when you think about the crises that would be required to get the europeans to respond, you think about terrorism, climate change cyber -- where are the europeans likely to be on these things? the answer is not at home.

that is not a promising story. francine: thank you so much for all of that insight. ian bremmer stays with us and we will be talking about russia next. it has bennie year since sanctions were imposed on russia. that has not stopped the country wooing international investors. ryan chilcote is in st. petersburg. in terms of the st. petersburg international economic forum this is going to be crucial. russia is seeing the return of the ghost of the cold war rhetoric. putin has been talking about missiles. ryan: that is not helpful. look, if you want to do business in russia if you are a big investor, you have got to come to this forum.

it is the place where you go to see other business people, but really you go to be seen. that is why all of the oil companies come here. shell bp. they are all here. politicians come. europe's most talked about politician, the prime minister, will be here. it is overshadowed by the geopolitical conflict. the evidence of that is that we have the president's spokesman here. instead of talking about business opportunities, he is talking about the cold war and how russia sees ghosts of the cold war and he gives you a sense of this will be part business, part geopolitics. from a business perspective maybe the geopolitical part makes you a little bit more anxious than you would prefer to be. francine: thank you so much.

ryan will be covering the st. petersburg economic forum. this friday, you can watch early rose's conversation with vladimir putin. that will be right here on bloomberg tv. we will bring you live coverage of the event from noon u.k. time. we're back with ian bremmer. i want to ask you about russia. vladimir putin meets alexis tsipras. is this dangerous or is this just because they have political alignments? ian: it is suggestive. it is suggestive in the sense that the greeks want to show they have some leverage in the russians are doing everything they can to get a vote against sanctions in europe. and on think the russians are prepared to put the kind of cash into greece that would be required to provide them a real alternative. we are in a world that is much more fragmented. the americans throw sanctions on

the russians and the russians do more business with china. people are looking to up the ante on the russians in america. i say, what are you planning on doing? are you going to put sanctions on china? we have to talk about that. are you going to talk about it in the sense of changing your policy? it does not work. putin has more flexibility. he has emerging markets around the world. he has support from home. these sanctions are not working. francine: how dangerous is he? i know everybody says he is dangerous. is it just talk or should we take more notice? ian: the possibility of an accident involving russian military, given all of the incursions of european airspace where you would have people getting killed, you already saw

the knocked down of flight mh17 a couple hundred civilians killed. almost a year on, we have kind of forgotten about that. their family seven. nonetheless, it did not really change anything. the potential for accidents is high. the purpose of the u.s. policy is to punish putin. i will to you what worries me the most. you are talking about tens of billions of dollars going into the pockets of all of the people that are directly around putin to host the russia world cup in 2018. which they may lose. if they lose that, putin is going to react. i do worry about that. francine: what do you mean react? ian: certainly much more military bluster. if you were to ask me, would putin be likely to authorize a

significant cyber attack against u.s. public infrastructure and the government if he were to lose the world cup in 2018? i think the answer is yes. francine: thank you so much. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." here are the top headlines. the greek prime minister says that the imf bears criminal responsibility for the situation in his country. the comments prompted the u.s. treasury secretary to call tsipras to urge them to reach a compromise with greek creditors. christine lagarde will speak in brussels later today. lawmakers in hong kong have begun their debate for elections

of the chief executive and 2017. thousands of locals are taken to the streets to protest against the plan. the billionaire businessman and television personality donald has declared he is running for the republican presidential nomination. he issued a financial disclosure statement before his announcement claiming net worth of $8.7 billion. he is promising to bring back american jobs and money. ian bremmer is still with us. we talked about greece, donald trump, russia. what worries you the most is china. we are talking about this new bank they are creating. what worries you about china? is it therefore in policy the bubble economy? ian: it is not that we are looking at a bubble economy. there is a presumption in the united states that china is

going to fall apart or they are going to look more like the united states. in five years time they will start having a labor deficit. they have massive environmental degradation. the lack of political liberty is going to be a problem. none of these things are going to hit before china becomes the largest economy in the world. they're going to be poor, authoritarian, and state capitalist and they are going to be larger than we are economically and they are going to have a strategy. i think that is a serious concern. you see it in the level of industrial espionage, ip theft the cyber hacking and the ability of the americans to respond -- huckabee running for president said we should hack them back. we do hack them back. when we are hacking them back we are not giving the money to

t-mobile to say, go make more money on the chinese. the chinese are definitely doing that. francine: how do we fight back? is it fighting back or is it being friendlier, so that they feel accepted? ian: ultimately, i think the way you fight back is you have an economy that is so extraordinarily strong that you are truly too big to fail, so that the chinese have to invest so much in you that you are there problem and they don't want to destroy you, but we are far from that. the way that the chinese have gotten up the value curve against u.s. and european multinationals has been stealing stuff. we are not going to give them our technology. our fiduciary responsibility is that we maximize the profit we return to them, not help the chinese. given that, they are playing a different game. they don't have rule of law or an independent judiciary. they have a state that controls the economy. they use that to rebalance what

they consider an unfair playing field. i promise you that no one in the u.s. sees it that way. this is going to be a much more significant fight. there is nobody that actually advises obama directly that is really in asia hand anymore. first round, you had geithner hillary, craig campbell, a lot of smart people. all of the other ones are gone. kerry is a middle east guy. you just aren't focusing on the part of the world that is utterly critical for the united states. i think that is a serious problem. francine: i agree. ian bremmer, eurasia group president. tom keene joins us with a preview of "surveillance." we are looking at janet yellen. tom: it is an interesting day. there is going to be no news

but -- and the but is very big. we are going to see a change in the forecast. the dot plots that they do, i don't understand them, michael mckee is much better -- we are going to do dot plots. they are going to come down a little bit. the mix of how they come down is going to be a real source of interest in our afternoon. we will get a little bit of indication of how we get off to september and into december. i would say maybe the word greece will come up, as well. francine: i'm sure we can find a dot map for greece. it will be acrimonious. maybe we should have a barometer, like we do for the fed. tom: it is an interesting time. what i would focus on -- the stunning volatility in euro out one week and one month.

the euro has really not moved even though sterling is up a little. the measurement of volatility of the euro out one week and one month is off the charts. it is an absolutely interesting time we are in. francine: we have had some big moment -- movements on the vicks. pakistan has secured the first buyer for its low cost, homemade fighter jet. the gs17 made its flight debut at the paris air show. bloomberg spoke to the pakistani air force about the jet. >> it is a very, very costly project. not only the designing, the development, but also the coproduction. they decided that, come what may, this is a time where we have to expand our resources

dedicate them to develop this indigenous product. i am a vice marshal. i look after the program for the parts in the air force. this aircraft is definitely a compatible, high-tech aircraft, but at a very affordable cost for a country like pakistan. as far as this project is concern, we decided that some of the parts -- we should have stayed of the part avionics. we have incorporated some of the western avionics as well. but the circumstances did not favor us. there were very clear sanctions from the western countries. now, if we have to make a fighter we will not be waiting for so long to get the clearances from the western sanctions.

time and again, china has proven its friendship. it is not only in defense, but also encompassing all aspects. the sanctions would not stop us to meet our just requirements and are just needs. whenever a country requires more self-defense, it is a liability on other countries to come forward and offer the same thing to other countries, too. you can definitely compare it with the class of anything closer to the f-16. i'm not a sales man. i'm a fighter pilot. one third price of any compatible fighter this aircraft is good to go. it is a country who has definitely confirmed us. we are very close to talking to a dozen or more countries. very soon we will be able to release very good news to us in

their joint partners. francine: yahoo! has confirmed it plans to spin its stake in alibaba. marissa mayer said she is confident about the plan. for more, we're joined by caroline hyde. what can you tell us about her plans. caroline: everyone has been wanting to know when they would be able to sell off the last remaining stake of alibaba. this is been the cash cow for alibaba -- yahoo! the past two years. they have done some slightly complex negotiating and creativity to be able to offload this $40 billion stake without having to pass on the tax to the shareholder. suddenly, this got slightly thrown into controversy because basically the internal revenue service said they are thinking about changing the rules in terms of spin off, which is

exactly what marissa mayer was hoping to do. it seems that you should not be worried. at the moment, the rules will not affect you. >> we are proceeding with our plan as proposed. it is based on an understanding of a few key things. the contemplated changes that have been communicated to date do not apply to previously received requests for rulings. we filed well in advance of the changes. the other thing that gives us some providence is that it does not seem these proposed changes are contemplating changing the applicable law. it is more about the processes around these types of transactions. caroline: shares rose because there is a relief that they will not have to pay the tax. focus is now back on what yahoo! is doing about the business.

francine: caroline, that is one thing. at the same time there is a huge game conference going on. caroline: all about gaming. it is over in los angeles. all of the gaming greats come along. no new hardware. what they are looking at is the new game summit of virtual reality and headsets. virtual reality really caught headlines teaming up with oculus. >> we are actively looking at our core platforms, our core action, and core franchises to establish what is the best way to immerse players in virtual reality. this is early days of virtual reality. i don't expect that you will see something profound in the next few months. caroline: he is not so

convinced. there is so much technology going on at the moment. we also spoke to dick costolo who just stop down -- stepped down as the twitter ceo. it is still modern technology week. francine: this happened. this is worth a note. [laughter] caroline: how else do you make a bit of a splash as technology than having a robotic horse that spews fire. this is that the europa. a conference and awards ceremony to shine a light on some of the biggest, most successful startups. so many great startups they are being highlighted as the cool tech savvy, future. the way that you type on your phones, they designed that. they shined a light on ai and

helping the professor vehicle to speak. i think london is owning it. francine: caroline, thank you. coming up, we will be live in dubai talking emerging markets. stay with us. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the

pulse." let's go live to mark barton in dubai, who is standing by with a guest and they will talk the sovereign wealth fund. mark: a very good morning to you. he has flown in especially from oman. he is the oman investment fund chief economist. thank you for flying to dubai today. tell us about the investment fund. fabio: we are essentially a private equity fund. we invest in a number of sectors , internationally and in oman. we used to concentrate on foreign investment and now we are developing -- focusing some of our assets to investments in oman. we have a fairly broad range of sectors in which we invest, from manufacturing, logistics, real

estate aquaculture cleantech. mark: emerging markets are a big part of your investment portfolio -- have you been deterred by the recent decline in stock prices? fabio: we are long-term investors. our main goal is to transfer the money, the funds that we manage to the next generation. within this context, we prefer emerging markets, because that is where growth is more -- is higher and will remain higher for the foreseeable future. the risk we have to consider but that is the game. when you invest it is a balance between assurance and risk. mark: oman is the largest arab

producer not in opec. can you give us the level right now? fabio: there have been several estimates of this level. you have seen it from the imf. it would be somewhat above $80. mark: you think the oil price equilibrium is $80? fabio: in the analysis that we have done it points -- in order to produce what the world is actually consuming, you need to extract from the marginal wealth with extraction costs that are in the order of $80 per barrel. that is the equilibrium price to which the markets will trend in the medium-term. mark: are we trending in that

direction? have we seen the lows? fabio: i think we have seen the lows. i think the projection to get equilibrium is quite volatile. there are all sorts of unpredictable effects. there might be issues. in a long-term perspective $80 should be the equilibrium price. you see this in the futures curve. the long dated futures are not about -- now about $75 or $76. that is where the demand for real money is concentrated area that is a better indication of the real forces that drive the market. mark: you almost laugh at the view of shale oil opening up a new energy. fabio: it is not a new era.

they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. yes they have been very successful, they have deployed incredible technology. they have been able to increase production by one million barrels in each of the past three years but there is so much you can do with those deposits that are very costly to exploit. it will not last for long. mark: we came here to report on the opening of the saudi stock market. there is they view that may be funds that would have gone to your country might be diverted to saudi arabia. is that the case or is it good for the entire region? fabio: i think it is good for the entire region. if we attract the attention of

the large asset managers and players in the market, the saudi arabian market is big, is large, is liquid, so the big names will be naturally inclined to look at these opportunities and there will be positive repercussions on all of the markets in the region. mark: don't talk about greece -- i'm breaking my rule. you work for the imf. i've got to ask you really quickly about greece. is a deal going to be struck? what is your assessment? fabio: the greek government until now, has acted under the conviction that the euro area cannot do without greece. that is wrong. either they come to realize that they made the wrong assumption

and, therefore, play to the rules of the ecb, the imf, and the other governments of the euro area or they will have to face the default perspective. those will not be pleasant for greece, for the citizens -- i think that at the end the government might come to it cents -- its senses and act responsibly. mark: that is twice i have broken my greece about. v-- vow. francine: just follow my rule. no vows, don't break them. janet yellen and christine lagarde are both speaking tonight. we will look ahead at the fed's decision and the imf head's speech on greece. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." now, for a look at what we are watching for the rest of the day we are joined by hans nichols. we've got to wrap it up and look at our twitter question of the day. the fed janet yellen, christine lagarde speaking at the same time. hans: with janet yellen, we will

be looking at information on the health of the economy. when you have a federal reserve press conference and christine lagarde speaking at the same time, i don't know what to do. we need a split screen. this is exciting. will christine lagarde respond to the strong narrative from mr. tsipras, when he accused the imf of criminal behavior? we will watch euro-dollar. rethink their may be more fireworks from lagarde. francine: yeah, which part of me hopes that she will. this is a big allegation. hans thank you so much. ian bremmer thinks this is all tactics. hans nichols will be live throughout the day and then he travels to luxembourg to keep us up to date with the eurogroup meeting.

that is it for "the pulse." stay tuned for the "surveillance" team. they are live from new york. you can follow me on twitter. hans nichols is also on twitter. ♪

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: merkel is civil, the guard is silent. greece is stable, greece is

fragile this morning. it is a data dependent fed. janet yellen will wait until she sees inflation. fedex reports a first indicator of the summer american economy. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. i'm tom keene joining me, vonnie quinn and brendan greeley. greece is sort of quiet today. brendan: except for the words being thrown back and forth. this debate has always been so politic. it has become personal recently in an entertaining way but possibly destructive. tom: let's get to top headlines to catch up on greece. he was vonnie quinn. vonnie: u.s. treasury secretary jack lew had a message for the prime minister of greece -- it is time to get serious. he told alexis tsipras he needs to find a compromise to unlock bailout funds. that was after tsipras went on a