market will be listening closely for tens of a possible september lift off. janet yellen speaks at 2:30 washington time and we will have a pre--- everything. --ty: walmart has more than we will hear how walmart is responding to this. the: you will look at latest sports scandal with the st. louis cardinals under investigation for allegedly hacking the internal consumer networks of arrival baseball team. -- of a rival baseball team. betty: good afternoon. i am betty liu. mark: i'm mark crumpton and thank you for joining us on this day. let's look at the markets. stocks are raising earlier gains

on this wednesday and now lower ahead of the federal reserve's decision on interest rates and on word that greek aid talks are deepening. the check of the board shows all major averages lower. s&p 500 index down nearly one third of 1%. dow jones industrial average and nasdaq.25 of 1% composite is down also at 5044. gold is blowing today ahead of the fomc statement and gold trading right now at $1175 and $.50 that counts. gold is down about .4 of 1% and oil initially gained after a government report showed that u.s. crude stocks piles dropped the seventh week. the longest stretch of declines since the beginning of 2014. crude erased the advance and now down over 1% -- over 1.5% at

$39.05 betty: a barrel. checking on bond markets. we are waiting on the fed statement. they are coming up just slightly here. the 10 year yield is at 2.38%. in the currency markets which have been roiled by the fed but by what is going on in greece with the euro, the euro is slightly higher. the dollar is stronger at this moment ahead of the fed statement. let's get a look at top stories this hour. investors are waiting to hear what the fed says about the prospect of higher interest rates. fed chair janet yellen and other policymakers wrap up their two-day meeting. futures traders are betting that they will keep the rate near the ratesut they could raise in september. janet yellen will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. and we will have it live during the bloomberg market day. minister says you can blame him if there is no deal to unlock a lot funds. alexis tsipras says the government will "a big now if

creditors demands are unacceptable. no negotiation's between greece and lenders are close to breaking down. there is a meeting tomorrow as a last chance. a former chief economist at goldman sachs jim o'neill still thinks the deal can be reached despite the odds and he talked about it on "charlie rose." >> it's a game of chicken it seems to me and i have assumed in typicalhat european moment that the last moment there will be a deal. august the, right now as we adjust, it it seems pretty interesting to say. betty: greece could miss payments on their debt if there is no deal by the and of the month. it can see all of jim o'neill's interview tonight on "charlie rose" at 7:00 p.m. eastern time on bloomberg television. mark: microsoft is shaking up the management team. several big names are leaving. executive vice president stephen elon is one of them in the former ceo of note here and mark

is also leaving. he was hillary clinton's chief strategist in the 2008 presidential campaign. several other executives will also depart. microsoft is forming a new team called the windows and group. forlators have find at&t $100 million for the unlimited data plan. the fcc said they would slow down internet speeds after consumers used a certain amount of data. at&t said they will vigorously dispute allegations. betty: fedex is cutting their forecast in the u.s. economy this year. the -- the operator of the largest cargo airline said the gdp will rise 2.3% in 2015 and down from 3.1% in an earlier forecast. you heard from ceo fred smith on a conference call. are 1.6 billion dollar profit improvement line we outlined in 2012 is on a schedule and we are confident we will reach our goal. sharesmeanwhile, fedex

are falling today in the company posted quarterly sales. a prophet that missed wall street estimates, down over 3.5%. mark lays is ending trading in several hundred billion dollars of u.s. mortgage bonds issued before the financial crisis. the firm will no longer regularly buy and sell the securities which lacked government backing. no traders will lose their jobs because they have allocated resources to other businesses. allergy and already makes the wrinkle treatment botox and now they are getting a treatment for double chins. allergan has agreed to buy kythera pharmaceuticals for $2.1 billion and they make the only approved nonsurgical treatment for double chins. it also has experience of products for male pattern baldness. betty: a new threat to uber's business model. a driver must be considered an employee. drivers been treating

as independent contractors. if the california ruling is upheld, it would require minimum wage and also provide health coverage and other benefits could be of the cost for uber. that is a look at your top stories. mark: kit has been a busy day for m&a starting with the pharmaceutical company. julie hyman is looking at the reaction. julie: you were just talking about allergan and trying to get that double chin and treatment. it is the only one that is nonsurgical on the market and we are seeing kythera shares rise today. 2.1 billion dollar total deal and $75 a share. , 4% premium to its close yesterday. allergan shares are a little change. i wanted to take a look at the terminal to see how allergan has been. seeing prior acquisition activity of a company. formallybought -- was

another company and then changed. 2014 was a blockbuster year because of that acquisition was at $66 billion bringing the total for the year to about $87 billion to six deals. through all of these deals, became the fifth largest pharmaceutical company in the united states and has been very active. one of the medical deal, holdings is buying a company called welch allen for about $2.1 billion. it is expanding the market for medical supplies and shares have risen bike 7% and at record today. they are developments potentially in the quest for t-mobile after a report earlier that deutsche telekom was in talks with comcast to sell t-mobile to it. comcast or person familiar with plans is saying, that is not the plan and we are not interested but t-mobile shares remain steadfast and higher by about 3%. suitor talkedther

about for t-mobile and those shares have been treating lower. as a talk about this m&a activity, i wanted to take a look at it eight year chart of m&a in the united states the blue lines are the deals and volumes. the dollar amount of volumes and the green line is the number deal. as you can see, we have been picking up substantially. deal volume and added another $65 billion or so and we are on track to overtake the tally back in 2007. we would need some other big deals. there have been a lot talked about, t-mobile -- we will see if we get to that. they: is the end of that -- green line -- showing deals are getting smaller and smaller? deals are number of fewer but bigger in size because we have seen blockbuster deals this year. betty: thank you so much. julie hyman. mark: coming up on "bloomberg market day" we will look at the latest sports -- sports scandal

with the st. louis cardinals under investigation for allegedly hacking the internal computer networks up a rival team. issued thisntire week is dedicated to coding. we will like how one of the man behind one of the largest operating systems wrote his first line of code. "bloomberg market day" will be right back. ♪

betty: welcome back to "bloomberg market day." five betty liu here with mark crumpton. mark: the union claims walmart assets in offshore

tax payments. the commercial -- the commercial workers international union says 97% of walmart overseas assets are by subsidiaries in the netherlands were tax rate is less than 1%. betty: walmart tells bloomberg that the design is designed to fccead and they comply with and irs rules. joining us now is reporter jesse drucker who wrote this story. jesse, sort this out for us. walmart is saying that this is a misleading report but is it really? well, walmart is not really disputing the facts from the report, so i'm not exactly sure what to make of that response. the report is fairly straightforward and relies on places like luxembourg and the netherlands. it shows that walmart is holding tens of billions of dollars worth of assets in popular tax havens and paint little income tax. mark: this report was research by the international commercial workers union.

role?s their what is there to gain from the union from releasing this report? well, obviously, the union has a history of trying to organize workers at walmart. to be honest, i am not as familiar with their organizing efforts as i am with the facts of walmart's tax laming. clearly, i think they want to try and embarrass walmart and bring to the public some of the is walmart is using which similar to apple, amazon, and starbucks have been called up in various congressional and u.k. parliament hearings as well. betty: how much are we talking about here that they have avoided? found a $76research billion worth of assets in offshore tax havens, but what are they not paid to the government then? jesse: that is complicated. the figure we used in our story

today is about $3.5 billion over the past six years which is a amount of money walmart saves from all overseas operations. the amount they are saving precisely from the tax haven subsidiaries are difficult to stress out. one example is one of the big luxembourg entities that walmart uses has reported over $1 billion worth of income over the last four years and paid taxes and rate of 1%. if that income was being reported in the u.s. or u.k. or somewhere they actually do business, then obviously, walmart would be paying hundreds of millions of dollars worth more in taxes. betty: 1%. , jesseou so much drucker, in rome for us here at bloomberg. let's turn to sports. hackers may have a new playing field, the baseball diamond. officials in the st. louis cardinals are being it -- are being investigated for hacking the houston astros office computers. mark: this is the first publicized hacking of the major

sports team bringing the concept of competition to a whole new level. here to talk about the on privacy and cyber security lawyer craig newman, a partner at patterson, web, and tyler. thank you for joining us today. does that mean perhaps this has gone him before and we have not heard about it? craig: the question you are asking, is this an isolated incident or has this happened before? this is likely it is not the first time it has happened in major league baseball or in any of the sports leagues. you are used to seeing headlines, financial institutions, retailers, even last week the government being hacked. this is the first disclosed hacking of a major league sports team and the question is -- are there others? betty: some of the details are murky. they will come out as the investigation continues, but they believe it may have been someone in the st. louis cardinals who going after

someone in the general manager's office and tried to find files, right? craig: we know very little at this point. what has been publicly disclosed by both teams is on the website and they say, we are cooperating with the fbi and the justice department investigation. when you read the news reports from sources say that what is likely under investigation whether or not someone who worked in the front office of the st. louis cardinals had anything to do with hacking up a very important database cap at the houston astros. that database contains statistics, player information and strategy. in many ways, what was allegedly hacked was really the secret sauce for the houston astros. mark: maybe they got some of their metrics, some of their, i guess, more now than anything else now. it has become a math and science when you are rating players and performance. craig: that is right. what is alleged is that the proprietary algorithms asterisk use were subject to this alleged

hacking. can is the kind of data you use to compete against other teams. if you had just a slight edge, just in sport or business, it could make a huge, huge difference. mark: like frequent in trading. i don't mean to be flippant about it but you have that little bit of an edge to mean the difference between whether you are bottom line looking good or whether your bottom line needs to be set. craig: what is the difference in the value of your sports team between a win and a loss? that is something hard to quantify. if these allegations are true, and in fact, this database was hacked in houston, didn't mean the difference between a win or a loss? that could be huge in terms of advertising revenues, season tickets. there is also the overhang of a real criminal investigation at some point with the fbi and the department of justice. betty: if this is some sort of

non-isolated incident -- this has happened to other teams and we just don't know about it -- are we talking about having cyber security be a part of the budget sports teams from now on? craig: the question i think everyone is asking now -- is this a teachable moment in the cyber security world? not just for sports teams but for global companies because there is not a day we don't see a headline. yesterday, we saw the headline about packing companies that protect passwords was packed. betty: i think it was called last password. craig: are these companies prepared for what is inevitable and most companies have been breached or they will be breached. mark: a lot of times, citizens are not really involved and in issue until it impact sports or impacts their teams because this is now taking place, affecting america's pastime, baseball,

will people pay more attention now to issues regarding cyber security? craig: you would hope so because in a world of sport, this is a very, very sad development. court, leaked intelligence, things like this, but we have never seen people making digital intrusion into another team's database to gain a competitive advantage. not exactly a level playing field that was intended in the world of sports. mark: fascinating. craig newman, partner at patterson bell cannot web and tyler, talking about the allegations of hacking involving the st. louis cardinals. betty: it is a fascinating story. coming up on "bloomberg market day," we are waiting for the announcement from the fed at the top of the hour. mark: not likely to raise interest rates today but janet yellen may give us hints of what to expect in september. she will be speaking in a little

over one hour at 2:30 washington time. we will bring to hurt remarks live on bloomberg television. -- we will bring you hurt remarks live on bloomberg television. ♪

mark: welcome back to "bloomberg market day." i'm mark crumpton with betty liu. betty: coding -- we hear about it all the time. it runs everything from websites to cable box to atm machines. dedicated theg entire week to coding, explaining the process in 138,000 word article. linus is though man behind the story about his first line of code. thing i really enjoyed about programming is just the fact that you really can tell the computer exactly what you want and it will do what you tell it and nothing more. i don't know -- maybe i'm

autistic or something or borderline. that does not have to be normal. .'m linus i am mainly known for the guy who started and formed the next. the first computer i used was my grandfather's. i think i was 11 years old or 12-year-old. used veryer traditional language called basic. my sister says that the first thing i showed her was the one that everybody starts with when you are doing basic. 10 print and you print the string and 20 goes to 10 and that is basically saying print that string forever. she claims that i made it right which to me sounds very

unlikely. i was trying to impress her with my programming skills. it did not start out very serious, but by the timeout i was 15, that is what i did. you look at something and you know it. if you are not a programmer, you would think it is almost noise but if you can dig it a long time, you can read it like any other language. you can write code that is beautiful just different. why i can look at the same project 25 years later. it is hard to break the code. sure to pick up the special issue. at 38,000 word article about why everyone, everybody, need to

learn the basic of computer programming. let's take a look at the top stories crossing this terminal. police in that soviet are saying a tiger that broke loose after severe flooding at the zoo killed one man and wounded another. said all lions and tigers have been found dead and only one jaguar remains free. please killed the tiger which was hiding in an abandoned factory. mark: it is raining hard today in central texas in the aftermath of tropical storm bill. streets were flooded, schools were closed after the storm made landfall near corpus christi. it is now waiting in areas recovering from deadly floods over memorial day weekend. bill is the first tropical storm to hit texas in seven years. betty: donald trump should not expect camping koch additions from neil young. -- should not expect campaign

from neil young. that is neil young's classic hit "rockin'in the free world." young is a canadian citizen who says he supports bernie sanders and trumps camp says a spokesperson said the billionaire paid the appropriate licensing fee, so i can use it. don't miss the presidential candidate on bloomberg tv at 5:00 p.m. eastern time on "all due respect." mark: 12 candidates in the republican field. getting a little crowded. betty: he is adding a little bit of over there. i am signing off. next halfng up in the hour, a preview of the fed's announcement at the top of the hour and the markets will be following what janet yellen says. ♪

to theelcome back bloomberg market day. i'm mark crumpton in new york. thank you bursting with us. let's get to your top headlines at this hour.

boeing has gotten a much-needed boost to its jumbo jet program. it sold 20 ofed its upgraded 747 jets to a russian cargo airline. more than $7 billion. demand has been falling for four engine planes like the 747. forare americans applied mortgages last week. applications fell 5.5%. our interest rates may be one reason the average fixed rate has climbed the last two weeks and is now a little more than 4.2%. in the report says walmart has $76 billion in assets and overseas tax havens -- in overseas tax havens. of walmart's overseas assets are owned by subsidiaries in luxembourg and the netherlands. the report is designed to mislead the union.

boy who survived a shark attack is talking about the experience. xunter was in the water off ob when he was attacked. he lost his left arm and says he now has two options. hunter: i can try to live the life -- my life the way it was or let this be completely debilitating. out of those two, there is only one i would actually choose. to try to fight and live a normal life. mark: an hour before the teenage boy was attacked, a shark bit a 12-year-old girl two miles away. hith korea says it has been by its worst drought in a century. the drought has cost 30% of its rice paddies to dry up. rice plants normally need to be

partially submerged in water during the early season -- early summer. they suffered a devastating famine during the 1990's believed to have killed hundreds of thousands of people. china and australia have signed a free trade agreement. tony abbott says the deal would change both countries for the better. australia will remove a 5% tariff on chinese electronic goods. 95% of australian exports to china will be tariff free. it is decision day for the u.s. federal reserve. while the central bank is not expected to raise rates today, we may learn about the future path of rate increases. janet yellen speaks at 2:30 p.m. washington time. joining me now is the managing partner of westwood capital and the chief u.s. economist at bloomberg intelligence. carl, let's start with you. it's a given that we are not going to see a move on interest rates today.

what are the markets looking for? karl: no move today. hearing what a boring fed day it is and this is what janet yellen wants to occur. she doesn't want the market nervous or reacting to surprises. the fed is trying to because just and deliver it in telegraphing their actions. -- deliberate in telegraphing their actions. market expectations are broadly leaning toward december at this point. the economic assessment in the forward guidance on language -- she will try to reiterate that message. she doesn't want to have a market expectation shift out of 2015. mark: september as well? >> that is the earliest we will see it. we saw one piece of really good , after some sales

lousy data for four months. we will see what happens going forward. the fed will be focused on a number of things. we have the productivity numbers running low. that is a continuing concern for people. has quite improved, but at the same time, looking at jobs and saying what kind of jobs are these? short our jobs, low-wage jobs? are we seeing any kind of boost? you look at what's happened to manufacturing, it doesn't bode well. how much of the good news will stick and will we have any more bad news? mark: bloomberg news interviewed eric davidson. his quote was "the end of free money is insight." -- in sight." the fed desperately wants to move off the zero rate.

why? they have no control over monetary policy at this point. they need to recover as much as they can as quickly as they can before the going gets bad again. we are seven years out. we should be up for another reception -- recession. those people who are concerned about cycles will look at this and say either we get some control over this again or we will have no leverage available to combat another downturn. the: it gives the fed opportunity to see another gdp report. it gives them several more employment reports as well. you talk about dynamics in the labor market. let's talk about dynamics of inflation. still below the feds 2% threshold -- fed' threshold. is enough intention being paid?

karl: the fed needs to watch the concurrent metrics of activity, job creation, movement and the on implement rate. inflation is ultimately going to move higher. -- unemployment rate. looking at merely domestic inflation without looking at the amount that exists around the world is difficult. which is why she has brought in global factors. greece.beyond china is still recovering a bit, but quite slow. europe is down in the dumps. japan made a bit of progress last year but is not very active. as a practical matter, are competitors are not allowing us to grow and allowing our inflation rate to gross and blue because they will dump using their currency if necessary, paying the price advantage.

is it going to get worse or is it going to get better? looking at the broad macroeconomic picture, the huge oversupply of labor and what to make ait's hard case for the resurgence of domestic inflation. mark: dan talked about the domestic competitors. what do our competitors want to hear from janet yellen later today? rl: ultimately, they would like to hear that the fed is driving rates because it would be consistent with a stronger dollar. a stronger dollar couple issues the qe -- the bank of japan and european central bank -- they to seeant us to see -- us raising rates so dramatically that it causes ripples. they would like to see signs that the dollar will continue to strengthen. mark: are we going to hear a lot of words from chair yellen about

the overall strengthen the economy? dan: there was a lot of talk out there when the first-quarter numbers came out about data not being right or read correctly. i don't put a lot of stock in that. we have had slow first quarters in the beginning of each of these last several years. the notion of suddenly the second bursting at the seams and research --e carl: the fed talked a lot about transitory factors slowing the economy in q1. we need to watch for the extent to which they say may be that weakness in the first quarter was not completely transitory. some of those factors come to need to weigh -- continue to weigh -- mark: derailment, thank you so

much. appreciate your time. will look att, we signs the economic recovery in japan may be slowing. --orts rise at the lowest slowest pace since last august. live coverage of the fed conference at 2:00 p.m. washington time. 's news conference scheduled for 2:30 washington time. bloomberg market day continues in just a moment. ♪

mark: welcome back to the

bloomberg market day. i am mark crumpton. let's get to a check of the markets. julie hyman joins me now. ahead of that fed statement at 2:00 p.m., we are seeing a lot of red on the screen. julie: we are, but not huge movement. we are waiting to hear what the statement is going to say and what the press conference is going to say. take a look at the major averages. there is a lot of red, but not deep red. the dow is down .2% as the s&p and nasdaq are down .1%. we await some kind of guidance on what the fed will do. i have called up a chart of the s&p 500 -- the last time we heard from the fed, it was a relatively tight trading range. 18 points from peak to trough. we did see declines through the day. gdp showed weakness in the first quarter, even as the fed did not really tell us much of anything about direction for rates. we saw a more dramatic move back on march 18.

feds more typical on the day, not much action until we got the statement. the fed said the economy was moderating, leading investors to push out their expectations for any sort of rate increase. let's also take a look at rates today. we have been seeing a bit of move upward in rates as the day has gone on. perhaps on the perception the fed will tell us today. a september rate rises in the works the yield at 2.38%. taking a look at the dollar, not seeing much action in the dollar. an interesting column out today that tries to handicap the winners and losers when rates do eventually go up. the dollar is listed as one of the potential winners. i wanted to get a check on oil prices today. one of the few aspect -- asset classes that is not moving in direct reaction.

we are seeing it down 1.5%. we got the inventories report aday that so -- showed drawdown in inventories. refiners were refining at a lower rate. does that mean we won't continue to see that drawdown? does it indicate a bit of weakening of demand? that appears to be the conclusion that traders are drawing today. we are seeing oil prices selloff. mark: julie hyman, thank you so much. look at today's market close in europe. no signs of compromise in greece. the very opposite, in fact. the stock exchange down 3% at the moment. it has dropped as much as 9% over the past two days. we've had all sorts of comments. alexis tsipras saying he's ready to assume response ability.

greece will say the big no to catastrophic policies. the eu says the demands are far from crazy. remain on the margins like a make believe economy. a number of countries saying they are bracing for a breakdown in talks. we have talks happening tomorrow in luxembourg and we have until the end of the month to reach a deal before it's bailout runs out. the benchmark closing lower today as well. the interesting thing about the stock 600, 100% of stock forecasters are bullish. you might ask why. citigroup sees this equity benchmark jumping 17% through the end of the year. earnings growth and the ecb's quantitative easing. i want to show you the big

picture of the european market close. it is read across the board. back to you. this japan reported appointing trade data, something that has been a common theme across asia these recent months. david ingles reports from hong kong. david: this lack of trading continues -- japan reporting that missed estimates. singapore reported a drop in shipment. japan, just under 2.5% growth. japan has been the rights motte -- bright spot in asia. south korea, taiwan, southeast asia, all these places reporting their own drops a nest boards -- drops in exports. now, to the top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal at this hour. nearly one million people became millionaires last year. a report from consultant cap number of people

worth at least $1 million at a record 14.6 million. the sixth straight year over year increases. swiss banks are reporting 53 possible acts of money laundering in the investigation of fifa's world cup bidding contests. the prosecutor described huge and complex case which targets "criminal mismanagement and money laundering in the bidding contests." the matches were awarded to russia and qatar. oakland is throwing a party on friday for its warriors. the parade will wind through downtown streets to honor golden state, the newly crowned nba champs. they clinched it by beating the cavaliers last night in cleveland. the team's first title in 40 years and oakland's first pro

sports championship since the a's won the world series in 1989. , in just moments, we will bring you the latest interest rate decision from the u.s. federal reserve. janet yellen speaks at 2:30 washington time. we will bring it to you live right here on bloomberg television. ♪

mark: welcome back to bloomberg market day. today's fed decision is a watershed moment. we will be trying to figure out what janet yellen and fed policymakers will be doing. will they move on interest rates? it seems the markets say they won't. it is not sure whether that is

being priced in. the global markets are also taking a closer look at this as well. scarlett: every one is waiting for the statement. joining us from stanford is tim kaine, a research fellow at the hoover institution. let me start with you. is there any chance at all that we may get a rate increase today? this is the first meeting in which it's theoretically possible. 50-50.d say the odds are i say that because three months ago, janet yellen was hinting that june might be the time. it is june. i start to look at the data that janet yellen and her team are looking at and they are all green. green lights, green to go. the only blitz is the gdp number was a bit negative. the anticipated that was going to happen. the labor market, their prime interest right now,

there are some topics there that are white-hot indicators. the odds are 50-50. i wouldn't be surprised if they raised rates today. scarlet: it seemed like everybody was pricing in no. lisa? lisa: you are the outlier. i'm impressed. the market is not a leasing they won't think -- don't think the fed will hike in june, there is question of whether they will hike this year at all. futures are coming down today. the chance of interest rates being higher than 30 basis is getting smaller and smaller. people are pushing back their expectations for the fed. there's a lot of questions about whether there could be another hike this year. traders do not seem to be pricing in a rate hike today. mark: you are definite -- it seems as if you are on an island

unto yourself aired i have to understand your strategy. orryone else says september october. tim: i'm an economist. i don't have real money at play here. is, it would be smart policy to price -- put in a rate hike now and see how it does. you don't want to get on a fast on-ramp. policymakers know that. i will turn your attention to one indicator. janet yellen has said they care a lot about the labor market. they're looking at how it is strengthening. the unemployment rate is 5.5%. , it'st is the sweet spot the jobless claims number that is off the charts. in four decades, it has not been this low. only once, right before the dot com bubble burst.

those were sweet times. lisa: you're not the only person who said this. if the fed were looking at the data, they would hike today. the problem is, what is the data they are looking at? have they moved beyond the jobless data? are they more concerned about inflation at this point? tim: inflation numbers look flat. wage inflation can come at a surprising pace. are dealing with a lot of uncertainty. this is a new venture. we don't know what her language is. ben bernanke he really raised rates -- never really raised rates. i don't think anybody can look at the qe and know what they are seeing. -- what they 1 care about, labor markets. i study labor markets and they look a lot tighter than people realize. and of story. those are the two points we have to go on. of story.

scarlet: we took a survey about what they expect the fed and janet yellen to do. >> let's get the obvious question out of the way. policy change today or not? >> know it. >> unlikely. -- no way. >> the issue will be how much detail she lays out for the ball. she has been talking about the rate increase in the fall. -- lays out for the fall. >> i personally think september. >> september. >> the most likely outcome will be a september hike. >> i'm not quite as convinced. up -- if greece were to blow and china were to the value, i don't see them raising in september. >> if the fed were truly data dependent, they would go today. >> we've seen some creep up in wages. 280,000 jobs coming on.

every month. that should go today. if they are truly data dependent. the key is not just data dependency here because the fed is sensitive to the ripples. >> they are trying to strike that balance between not disrupting the economic recovery , but on the other hand, not encouraging excessive risk-taking. that's why they will embark on this unusual tightening, the loosest tightening to balance these things. scarlet: a delicate dance. off, get closer to lift you have the 50-50 odds for today. would the language become more or less explicit? rates, they don't raise i cannot imagine they are not giving clear indications they will be raising rates. the don't want to broadcast exact date, but it will make the september thing look more like a sure bet.

there is so much uncertainty about how this fed chair wants to conduct policy. i'm arguing, they may want to raise rates now and not in september. part of that would be to strengthen the foreign economies. it should help the rest of the world and that has to be on their minds as well. mark: i mention the global markets are paying close attention to this because they want to see what the implications will be for the dollar. lisa: from what i hear, it's the opposite. if the fed hikes, emerging struggling ande have issued a lot of debt, they will have to repay him and could pose a problems if rates to increase here. it depends on how quickly and the strength of the rest of the world and whether they will keep up with us. tim: fair point.

they are double-edged swords to all of this. i'm thinking about bringing more imports to the u.s.. and peopleittle bit should worry a little bit about interest rates this low causing bubbles. the cost bubbles the last two cycles. we don't know when the next bubble is. i worry rates have been too low for too long. it would be a nice signal to see we will get rates in line with the strength of the economy right now. scarlet: it's a bigger risk for the federal reserve to wait than to do something right away. tim: i don't think people want -- for inflation to come up before you get back to normal. it can become like a brush fire. if inflation starts to take off, it can be hard to tamp down again. lisa: they do come out and give a signal that september is the

time, it will be interpreted as hawkish. that's what i'm hearing from people in the markets. it could provoke more of a dip. scarlet: april was dovish. we had the week first quarter first quarter data. greece could cause some sort of disruption. how much will the fed really raise issues of geopolitical concerns? hour,as we approach the you are not expecting anything to happen today? lisa: no. i don't have money at stake, either. have beenal markets watching this. let's check the boards as we head to the top of the hour. all the major averages still falling at this hour. dow jones down 22 points. s&p 500 with three points.

we have arrived at the hour. it's what everybody has been anticipating. the u.s. federal reserve and fomc statement. let's go to peter cook for the details. no major changes in the statement. we do see no clear changes in the forward guidance with when the fed will start raising interest rates. we do see in the forecast, the fed calling for two rate increases this year. they are challenging recent improvements, but also downgrading their gdp forecast for the new year. the most significant changes deal with the most recent assessment of the u.s. economy. economic activity has been expanding moderately. the pace of job gains picked up