tv Countdown Bloomberg June 19, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EDT
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mark: emergency meetings. the ecb holds an unscheduled meeting on greek liquidity as euro area leaders plan an extraordinary summit. anna: the russian connection. the great prime minister meets president clinton today at some petersburg. they talk of a deal. mark: and on the edge of a correction. china's of stocks reach seven-year highs. the shanghai, visit heads for to be its biggest weekly decline since 2009. good morning. you are watching "countdown."
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let's talk about the big subject of the morning. caroline: animosity was coming out. phenomenal work from christine lagarde, who was saying secured dialogue with adults in the room. guy: no grown-ups. will the grown-ups the meeting? yes, they will be. there is an ecb meeting later on today, still unconfirmed, but our sources are telling us it will take place around 12:00 frankfurt time. it is the result of the request from the greek central bank, concerned about the situation. the adults meet on monday. caroline: another emergency meeting. what will they extend the potential for a bailout agreement?
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meanwhile, thousands take to the streets in greece, protesting and the prime minister concedes lack male conspiracy theories. guy: the ecb meets today, the leaders meet on monday, the greek markets rallied a little bit yesterday. let me show you what happened. you can say that the rally we saw toward the back end of the day -- the greek market had been pummeled over the last few sessions. the banks were the problem yesterday. some banks were down in some weren't. you can see how the banks still today and we will bring that to you later on. the twitter question? caroline: is the greek situation influencing your investments right now? are you getting more risk-averse as we go into the weekend, following what was a bit of a riot? guy: yesterday, it seemed that defend was by far and away more important than the u.s. news. we saw a decent close on wall
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street yesterday, and the interesting thing was that we saw gold rallying. the dow average up. s&p, up. gold was the real standout story. gold and u.s. equities rallying. the fed is saying very clearly that they see rates going up. caroline: that inflation data is playing into yesterday when we saw -- what was it may .910.1%? we saw the gold stocks doing pretty well and it was the same again today. in the meantime, who switch our attention to asia because it has been a pretty eventful week in china. stocks have tumbled quite sharply, sending shivers down the spine of investors there. is this the start of a longer-term correction?
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david is standing by in hong kong. over to you. david: a very good morning. we are just getting underway in the afternoon session for the shanghai composite. it is making for a very eventful week. briefly, what is worth noting is that this time last week, this index was trading at about 51.77. it took us down about 10% 460 points. it is not a lasting matter, but it shows you the volatility in this market. there was a local report that the securities regulating china cashed in new rules to manage the risk of rising margin debt. right now they are about 200 billion u.s. dollars.
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there is also the story of ipos. we have 25 companies building this week sucking in a lot of liquidity $1.1 trillion. the amount that is being sidelined because of all these ideals. there is a lot of concern right now, and we aren't there at the moment, but the level you want to watch out for is 4648, about 10% down from the peak of last friday. let me wrap things up and give you a quick look -- very well but we are poised for a decline. the boj is coming up with their latest -- nothing new. economists agree that it is not the best time. what is different with the boj -- not that it will have bearing
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on monetary policy -- they are trying to increase the frequency of their economic output reports to four times the year. january, april, july, and october. back to you. guy: thank you. david ingles, bringing us the key numbers we need to know. the shanghai will be on the move later tonight. 4648 is the number. caroline: he loves his data. let's switch it back closer to home. great edging toward exiting the euro after creditors fail to reach a deal. the european central bank is also said to be planning an emergency call today to discuss greece's liquidity. guy: all of this while the prime minister elect and russian president vladimir putin are increasing isolation. our bloomberg correspondents are covering this from all angles.
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hans nichols joins us from luxembourg. mckenzie joins us on the phone from athens. let's start with you, hans. what went wrong and luxembourg? hans: it would have been easier to say what went right. it would be a short answer -- nothing. we had this extraordinary meeting followed by extraordinary comments from a gammagard, talking -- from the dam lagarde, talking about a conference call from the ecb. monday night, leaders will gather in brussels to try to cut through it. the big change coming out of the meeting was publicly ministers are talking about the prospect not just of a default or a miss imf payment, but of actual exit from the eurozone. the way things are going now, that is the direction it is headed in. much of the frustration stems -- and this is madame lagarde --
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from the failure to offer concrete proposals. >> it cannot be about smoke and mirrors. it has to be tangible proposals that can be substitution to proposals that have been put. hans: earlier, madame lagarde said there would be no grace period for the 1.5 billion euros due to the imf. there will be no give. that gets you into looking at the calendar at the next 10, 12 days -- what actually happens? in terms of getting money to the greek government so they can take it, that looks increasingly unlikely. >> given the very limited time that we do reach an agreement is unthinkable, that the implementation -- disbursement will take place before the end of the month. that is unthinkable. hans: not all the finance
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ministers were negative. they seem to think that the differences were printable. -- bridgeable. mr. shore well was mostly quiet, according to sources. pleaded necessarily show his cards, but there was plenty of criticism that one finance minister -- the whole process. one is calling for the idea of having all offers on the table be put out there publicly so that the greek public can k now. guy: thanks very much. caroline: ryan, the main act in st. petersburg is putin addressing business leaders, but the greek prime minister will be in town. stealing the show? ryan: so far, the prime minister
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has been engaged in bilateral meetings. we caught up with him yesterday where he was meeting with one of russia's richest man the man behind the largest aluminum producer. they met for a short while yesterday, then the prime minister went off somewhere else, and today he will be talking with the prime minister today. greece wants to become the new hub for russia gas as it transits from turkey to russia to the european union, that such a plan ever gets blessed by the european union. there might be a little bit of money and that for greece. he has been all over the place in st. petersburg. if he is at all concerned about the situation back home and a lack of a deal with creditors, he certainly wasn't showing it. i caught up with the former prime minister yesterday and the former head of the european commission, and i asked him --
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are we going to get a deal or do we need to start getting worried? have a listen. >> i think that by the end of the story, a compromise has more probability. there is [indiscernible] a could change the structure of the euro. ryan: 2:00 p.m. st. petersburg time, the greek prime minister is going to address business leaders here at the st. petersburg forum. e-mails a use it as an opportunity to talk to creditors and investors definitely a speech to watch, one we will carry live. caroline: an hour after the ecb has his emergency meeting. thank you very much.
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guy: let's pick up on the ecb meeting. we have thousands rallying in athens outside parliament. people are trying to urge the government to reach a deal. let's talk about what's going on in the ecb meeting. paul mckenzie is in athens. talk us through the demonstration -- what is the mood like? paul: there were 6000-7000 people on the streets last night, and the people last night were very strongly in favor of staying in the euro. the people we spoke to said that the time has run out. they are acknowledging it and say we need to accept the demands from the creditors in order to stay in the euro. there was a lot of fear on the streets about what is going to happen, a lot of unknowns. almost everyone we spoke to said they had taken money out, and any savings they had they would put into deposits because
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they are worried about capital controls. there is also a very strong sense of anger towards the way the negotiations have turned out and you have to worry about varoufakis, and the handling of the negotiations saying that they have poisoned relations between greece and the rest of europe. the sentiment is quite different to the night before, when there was also a slightly smaller rally. they were saying, we should hold our ground, no compromise. so there is division in the greek population many different thoughts on what is going on. i think there is now in the last few days, a realization that the chances of the greek exit from the euro are that much stronger and there is a great deal of uncertainty. people are paying close attention to the events coming
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out of luxembourg and brussels and now you are looking toward monday, clinging onto the faint hope that something concrete and positive may come from that. caroline: thank you very much. guy: coming up later, we will bring you live coverage from some petersburg. you can watch charlie rose in conversation with president vladimir putin during his annual session. that will be right here on bloomberg at noon, u.k. time. caroline: before that, my coverage from 11:00 a.m. stay tuned. coming up, keep it steady. guy: the bank of japan maintains record stimulus. more on that story when we come back. ♪
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from -- greece is close to an exit from the euro. euro area leaders will hold an emergency summit in brussels monday. thousands of greeks protested against their government outside parliament asking the nation to save them from default. caroline: the ecb will hold an emergency session of its governing council today to discuss the deteriorating liquidity of the greek bank according to people familiar with the matter. the meeting is scheduled for 11:00 a.m.. they will consider a greek request for 3 billion euros in emergency liquidity assistance. guy: the bank of japan maintained its record monetary stimulus, as they seek to spare inflation. the governor announced plans to increase transparency of the banks operation. they will release their outlook report on a quarterly basis and
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publish the forecast of written testimony of each board member. caroline: for more, let's bring in andy sharp in tokyo. a lot of the focus seems to be on the steps of the bank of japan that they have already taken to improve transparency. give us the details -- what should we listen for? andy: i have to admit, when the bank of japan announced that they would cut the number of policy meetings down to 14 per year to eight, there was a bit of a cheer across the newsroom. it also makes a lot of sense. for the meetings the year -- the economy doesn't change so much from meeting to meeting. eigh seems to be better plannedt. there will now be for quarterly outlook reports for growth,
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prices every year. it is more updated, more constant. also, they will beginning individual forecasts that each member of the board, which makes it very transparent of what all nine board members are thinking. i think regarding the meetings -- we just get a statement from the bank. we have to wait 5, 6 weeks before the minutes. usually that is after the next policy meeting. now, the bank plans to issue a summary of what was discussed and what was debated at these meetings about a week after each policy meeting. this could mean that those summaries -- we don't know what shape that will take yet -- could give investors some
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indication on the bank members' thinking. a lot more open a lot more transparent. as i said, the newsroom was very hectic to hear this. caroline: andy sharp, bloomberg news, in tokyo. guy: let's find out if the company was cheering. good morning derek. is more transparency better? derek: well, yes. i think it raises the importance of the events, there is more chance of change. also, from our perspective, it is becoming a quarterly report so that is quite significant. that is where you can get the real details in terms of monetary policy. it certainly makes sense. caroline: transparency as well
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and good, but it comes down to what the governor is saying. what do you view what has happened over the past week? last week his comments saw the japanese yen jump. clearly he didn't like the rapid depreciation. but it has come back and -- he said, i wasn't trying to affect the end, but what do you think you was trying to do? derek: i think they want to put in a sense of balance in terms of the perception of the market about the strong desire to see the yen weaker. i think it is a concerted effort, and there is an eye on what is coming from the united states. if we do that lifts off in september, there is a concern that there could have been another light higher. that ultimately could be counterproductive. what they are saying makes an
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awful lot of sense. if that -- that level hasn't changed since the 1970's. a weakened dollar could creep it higher, but the yen is going to strengthen on the trade rate basis and i think it is difficult to see a scenario in which the yen continues to weaken. he was talking sense. guy: despite the fact that you think the fed is pulling a fast one, that yellen is talking down the long-term right path giving the impression it will be shallower so she can take eyes off the board of that first-rate item? derek: i do. who knows what they will do next year, in 2017? the argument that it is more about the path rather than the timing, i'm not sure i would agree.
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they haven't raised rates for nearly 10 years. participants in the market would be deemed as well experienced have never seen a fatah rate increase. once you get the first one out of the way, if the data continues to improved and wages accelerate the obvious next move will be looking ahead and going -- i don't believe the fed anymore. that is when you could get a more nasty move in terms of an adjustment in short-term rates. caroline: when should you be willing to pay that? it is on track for a second weekly decline. derek: the whole relative monetary policy trade that moved to the sidelines and greece -- i know a lot of people i spoke to want to start selling the euro again at these kinds of levels but no one is willing to do it when you have the greek situation. although we are going to the
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wire and there is probably more to go, everybody still thinks a deal will be done right at the deadline and therefore there is a risk that you will get the pop in the euro. i think that is keeping market players out of the market. guy: greece is having an impact on investment decisions at this point. some people are ignoring it. derek: on the speculative side market participants want to sell the euro at these levels. caroline: meanwhile, we can look further afield to what is happening in australasia. the new zealand dollar seems to be on this ever downward trajectory -- are you expecting that to be playing out? derek: we are nearly priced for that second rate cut after the gdp data, and we have had a fairly big move. we look at valuations across a number of different methods.
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everything there was undervalued. the only one that was overvalued or the swiss franc -- was the swiss franc. this selloff in the new zealand dollar has brought that down to reasonable levels, and with another cutprice, perhaps of my broader dollar view but i think the big move is done. guy: thank you -- derek: i went trade politics. i hate the idea of trading in the market on politics. i would be waiting for the outcome, assuming it is a positive outcome, wait for the obvious pop. caroline: great having you on the show, thank you. we will see how it plays out throughout the weekend. guy: coming up, caroline spoke with one of europe's most
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guy: it is 6:30 in london, let me get you up to speed on what you need to know. we need to take you through some comments we are getting from the greek prime minister, where he will beat with vladimir putin. we will see if this has an impact on the euro-dollar rate. negotiations are at the highest level -- we have an emergency leader summit taking place at 7:00 p.m. monday night, a solution will be found, according to the prime minister.
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the solution will allow greece to grow within the euro area. the pro-euro demonstrations in athens -- he still seems to believe the greeks can remain in the euro area. the big leg up we saw were largely fed induced. we will get more on that in a moment. the euro-dollar trading at 114.35. this is the same we are getting through from the greek prime minister. caroline: here are some of the stories you need to know this morning. the bank of japan maintained its record monetary stimulus as the governor seeks to spur inflation. he also announced plans to improve transparency. the central bank will not release outlook reports on the economy and inflation on a quarterly basis as well as
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publishing the forecasts for each board member. guy: prime minister schmidt resigned as leader of his party. they promised tougher immigration. the party has said it is willing to enter with other skeptical eu parties. caroline: greece has moved closer to an exit from the euro. a meeting of finance officials -- euro area leaders will hold an emergency summit in brussels on monday. last night, thousands of greeks protested against their government asking to be saved from default. guy: let's get more on that greek story. we are joined by our guest host. good morning. we have an emergency meeting of the ecb, and an emergency
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meeting of the euro leaders on monday. >> it feels much more of an emergency than it has. it may be that what matters more than anything else is as simple as how much money is taken out of the greek bank. but the ecb can do about it. if confidence is lost in the process we will have an insurmountable problem. otherwise, we are still going to be talking about taking talks down to the wire. caroline: reports are that we could see the resale shuffle back monday. what message will that send? kit: catastrophic, if that were to be the case. i would have to go and check. it was serious enough to close
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banks -- we have never done that in this form. once you get the bank, you are in much more trouble. guy: if you were sitting on the ecb council today, talking about -- the greeks threatening another 3 billion -- how would you be feeling? kit: very nervous, but resolute in the sense -- i think my commitment to the ecb would be i am not a politician, i am a civil servant. i am only going to make a decision to stop funding for the banking system on the back of a political decision. i'm not going to push greece out of the eurozone from my civil servant seat in frankfurt. caroline: in the meantime, stay where you are in terms of the euro-dollar? kit: it didn't go down when the news first broke this evening.
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everyone was at -- it is incredibly resolute. i don't think people are convinced that they know what would happen in the worst of all possible cases. you can probably line a dozen foreign exchange transactions and get 11 saying it will go down. guy: are you making this up as you go along? [laughter] kit: six months ago today, the consensus for the middle of the year was 120. we haven't fallen vastly further than anyone thought in january. we have spent april, may, june washing around, bouncing back and even yesterday -- we haven't broken out of that range.
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we are trying to work out collectively what piece of new news, whether the positions have been cleared. caroline: it may be coming. we go to russia, turning our attention -- heads of state are among those attending at the international economic forum. ryan chilcote is also there, joined by one of the world biggest outdoor advertisers. ryan? >> do a look at you are the camera? ryan: thank you for joining us. we are joined by jean-francois copedeco, the largest outdoor
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furniture advertiser in the world. thank you for joining us. you have been coming here since 1982. perhaps you can put where we are right now in perspective versus the other years. you and i were chatting here last year -- is this the worst it has been in terms of climate? johnson wasjohn francois: russia has been a roller coaster. in 2010, we went up 10%. this year, we are down 30%. nobody knows what the future will bring. we have seen worse than this. ryan: the difference is more of a global crisis. johnjean francois co: some
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of our competitors -- one of them went under last year. there is a possibility for consolidation. we are working on it. the market feels too fragmented. last year they abolished a maximum market cap, it is gone. we are in a position where we can work with our partner in the second largest bank in russia. ryan: aside from the opportunity to pick up business what would be the other reason to stick around in russia? is it simply that as the world's largest outdoor advertiser you have to be everywhere? jean francois: we are a local business. 95% are made locally, driven by
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national advertisers. the decision is a local decision. we have international advertisers buying across the country. we had one with vodafone. about 90% of our sales are driven by local -- we don't have to be everywhere. before the fall of the ruble last year the russian outdoor market was the fourth largest in the world. when you are in a sector where russia is the fourth largest market in the world, you need to think about it especially when you consider investing. on top of that, the margins and russia are higher. 500 basis points in terms of margin in russia versus the rest of the world.
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we have some competition, but the market was growing faster. total media spent in russia is about 14%, but the worldwide average of 7.5%. russian advertisers tend to spend twice as much on their budget on outdoor advertising versus the rest of the world. the reason for that is you have a major city in moscow driving 60% of revenue, and right now you can spend hours in the car. they have a captive audience because they are trapping them. it could take you two to three hours to get there. ryan: good for you. your most recent deal -- you guys moved into africa. africa is where russia was in the 1990's in terms of opportunity. jean francois: it -- countries
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where extension is on the rise you have 41 cities in africa more than one million population. now business models are about providing state-of-the-art infrastructure at no cost to the taxpayer. we are looking at the system in lagos, 20 million people transporting people above ground through traffic jams. we are looking at potentially putting advertising and the lack of system. -- in the law goesgos system. in cape town, which is a more mature market, you have about one billion consumers. africa will have the largest working population. we have 14 countries giving us a platform to continue to grow and yes, it is exciting.
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ryan: i think we have to go soon but one less question -- will greece leave the eurozone, and if it does, is it a threat to your european business? jean francois: title think it could affect the european business. business is all about psychology. i'm not so sure that the european leaders whether they are french or german, would like to go down in history as having unplugged the greek market. ryan: you reckon they will reach a deal. we will have to leave it there. thank you very much, it john francois. --jean francois. we will remain here in russia for the next two days, getting the story. back to you. caroline: thank you. guy: let's talk about
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advertising. more today marks the final day of london technology week where the capital celebrates the growth of the sector. we spoke with arguably the most powerful woman in technology facebook's emea head. i thought they would introduce you as the most powerful woman in technology. [laughter] that is something you are working on. advertising is a big future for them. what did you get? caroline: you could be drawing on the walls, getting chocolate covered strawberries massages. this is an office with a bar, with a beer tap. it is pretty slick. and they are revving up for the creativity and advertising next week. i spoke to her about what other teams and advertising there are at the moment, and her key issue
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is mobile. the key to winning is going to be about who uses the smartphone. >> one of the big changes we will see at the festival this year is the increase in the amount of winners that will be digital first. it will be mobile first, video first, and that is definitely a shift that has happened. caroline: i walked away with digital first ringing in my ear. they are getting about 3 billion videos a day on facebook. guy: i am making sure that carries on as one of the main priorities. caroline: they want to know how they will leverage that leveraging oculus. she has been there for two years but as yet, they haven't changed their attention to monetizing those businesses. were they are focusing is leveraging instagram. it is also about getting
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advertisers. what is interesting is the ecosystem of facebook. they are saying they have helped other tech companies build themselves, grow, because of facebook. there are some phenomenal companies which she feels they have helped. >> i think with the shift to mobile, and with the shift to digital, it is almost like a revolution. it is changing our lives. if we think about how we schedule behavior. there is a long way to go for a lot of different companies, but what i am interested in is the start of businesses being created in this region and how we can help them through our platform to build and grow and monetize. caroline: can you give us an example of more businesses that you have seen grow? >> it is the small and big businesses -- in germany, the rocket business how they have become one of the biggest
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businesses to utilize the internet. all over the world, biking.com these businesses started small and are now at significant sizes. one of the exciting things is that they are only a handful of years old. caroline: that impressed me. overall, this is a company in the emerging market. we talked a lot about nairobi, how they are using facebook to advertise and get proper retail outlets. we will be digging into that. guy: great stuff. just a reminder, you can weigh in on all today's stories. join us on twitter. today's twitter question? caroline: is greece affecting the way you are investing? how are you looking at the euro
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guy: welcome back. 10 minutes to the top of the hour. lenny tell you about the stories you need to know. caroline: greece has moved closer to an exit from the euro after a meeting dissolved and acrimony. euro leaders will hold an emergency summit in brussels on monday. last night, thousands of protesters took to the streets, to move against their government asking for the nation to be saved from default. guy: the ecb will have its own emergency meeting. they will be on the phone, discussing theye deterioration vis-a-vis the greek bank.
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the call will be 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. officials are expected to consider a bank of greece requests for 3 billion euros in the eeo lay program -- the ela program. caroline: police have arrested a -- it is time for america to ask questions about racial tension and access to guns. guy: let's move on and take a look at the top stories on bloomberg.com. tim is here with his picks, and also with us good morning. the emergency meetings are the subject did youu jour.
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tim: our story today is looking at tourism. it is getting to a critical point because everyone is making travel plans. tourism is 20% of the greek economy and everyone is planning for the summer holidays and asking -- caroline: from what i hear, it is all about mykonos. it's actually putting people up? tim: it is. people are wondering -- if i go there, how good is your safe? can i put my money in their? -- in there? guy: quite hard to book a hotel room. i'm not kidding.
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try and book a hotel room in athens. almost all of them are fully booked. kit would you be worried about a holiday in athens? kit: i don't know if i will go there to holiday. [laughter] i have clients who are possibly watching who go to mykonos quite regularly. you pay with a credit card when you check out if your hotel. athens is full of protesters you'll find quite a lot of people in the street. you'll have lots of people like you. guy: that was my first thought. every single economic journalist and often. kit: impossibly temporarily full
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of people like me. i think athens -- the greek islands are a tourist destination. and in the arab spring's there have been a lot of people moving more to greece. i'm sure they will bounce back but it doesn't take much uncertainty to make people choose an alternative. caroline: i'm pretty sure some of your clients may have been dabbling in the swiss watches but i don't think they will right now. tim: the most recent data shows the biggest tech line since 2009 in swiss watch exports. they are suffering from three big trends -- the big slowdown in hong kong and china --down 33%. problem two is that frank getting killed and they just can't adjust prices quickly enough. of course, the apple watch.
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caroline: you think that is taking its toll? tim: at the bottom end of the market, without a doubt. guy: french beef -- it's not a funny story. french farmers are suffering. what is going on and why are people not interested? tim: it is beef cattle. we are looking at the plight of the french beef farmer. one of five cows comes from france, it is an important industry. guy: one in five. tim: in the european union. average earnings -- it's not even a minimum wage. it is not sustainable. caroline: the price point for the stake there selling -- not being able to make ends meet?
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tim: the beef industry is not keeping up with agricultural generally in france. -- with agriculture generally in france. people will go out of the market and industry and ultimately prices will rise in the longer term. guy: beef on the menu? kit: always. french beef farms like most of french farming, is small-scale in the vast treasured countrysides. as with french wine, lots of small manufacturers who get big competition from somewhere else. it is much more industrialized. guy: the u.k. economic policy -- this is another reason for people to defend it. another cross channel. but beef is still on the menu.
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guy: emergency meeting. the ecb holds an unsettled meeting today. euro area leaders lan a summit on monday -- euro leaders plan a summit on monday. turco president -- caroline: president today in talks -- guy: china stocks retreating today. the biggest decline since 2011. ♪ guy: welcome to countdown. i am guy johnson. caroline: i am caroline hyde.
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guy: let us talk about what we have learned. it is than eight to 24 hours for the greeks. -- it has been a tumultuous 24 hours for the greeks. jericho -- caroline: this meeting did not seem to get very far. guy: christine lagarde yesterday at the meeting which was at luxembourg. maybe we get some grown-ups in the room on monday. that is the idea. we start to get the leaders to meet, as a result, we start to get progress. mr. tsipras starsky had at that -- mr. tsipras starts to hint at that. caroline: not much in terms of stocks. we are seeing an effect on the bond market.
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clearly, the contagion is starting to wrap up. guy: we'll take a look at bond markets in just a minute. we will bring you the opening of the athens market. we'll give you a sense of where that is going. the greek banks yesterday mixed. we will see how they opened this morning. twitter question of the day, is greece influencing your decision-making when it comes to your investment decisions? give us your thoughts. u.s. markets yesterday quite interesting. all focused on the fed, i would say. caroline: feeding into the fact that they are not going to be hiking too fast too soon. goldman sachs saying they're not going to increase the hike until december. guy: we will get a sense of how
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europe is going over the next half hour. caroline: asia though? guy: asia is interesting. the markets are quite involved with each other. usa is focused on what is happening with the fed. europe is focused on what is happening with greece. asia is ignoring what is happening with great. but there is a decline in the shanghai composite. 28 minutes until corona speaks. we will bring you that. -- 28 minutes until kuroda speaks. we will bring you that. we are in corrections territory for the asian market. breaking news coming through. i will let caroline bring you the details. shanghai in correction territory. 4635 is where we are trading. caroline: david mission is
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stepping down on the fifth of august 2015. we will see keith succeed as the chief executive. it is all about insurance. we will be breaking into it much more. august 5 is when all of these changes will come after six years of ceo, david mission is done. guy: the european central bank is calling an emergency call today. all of this while alexis tsipras visits vladimir putin. caroline: on the ground, on's nichols joins us -- on the ground, hans nichols joins us. first, why the talks?
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posco the two sides were not only -- hans co. the two sides were not: mr. their focus try to offer something. it was table. we have something that is going on to a new sump it -- a new summit on monday. suppress is claiming this as a victory. he is saying that -- tsipras is claiming this is a victory. he is saying that was always the goal. madame lagarde has that comment about the importance and the need to have adults in the room. have a listen. >> we can only arrive at a resolution, if there is a dialogue. at this moment, we are short. the key emergency in my view is to restore the dialogue with
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adults in the room. hans: this assumption that adults could saw something in the room, their negotiation position are a little bit far apart. i am not sure that is accurate. when you look at what they have been saying in the last 72 hours, in some ways they are saying the same thing, and that is greece cannot abide more austerity. how much time is there left? they are not going to get any forbearance from the imf. there is not going to be a grace. . -- there is not going to be a grace period. it is not possible to disperse any of that 7.2 billion in aid. when we talk about the proposals, here is how mr. varoufakis said they were received.
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mr. varoufakis: [no audio] hans: i thought i had some sound. he was talking about how his proposal was not even listen to. they were quickly shoved aside. this gets to this meeting on monday now. this is between the european leaders. that banking issue could be resolved today when the ecb meets. they have that cop as call today. we'll see what comes out -- they haven't that conference call today. we will that conference call today. guise?
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ys? guy: sorry about the sound. we will make sure that is fixed later. he says a grexit would be the beginning of an end for the eurozone. the threats continue. turco a contingent. -- caroline: a contagion. in st. petersburg, is addressing leaders. -- in st. petersburg, then is addressing leaders. >> cool is a cool cumbre -- cool as a cucumber, that is how i would describe the -- ryan: today he is going to meet the russian president. the ambition for being a gas hub.
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he has not been showing any signs that he is concerned about the situation back home, other than the comment you just read from his interview. also with the e-mail statement out of his office yesterday, saying this summit is going to take place -- saying the summit taking place on monday is positive. former a time prime minister and former head of european commission, i said is it time for us to start getting worried? have a listen. ask i think the -- >> i think the story of compromise has more probability. it is nothing for anybody to give a signal that could change
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all of the structure of the euro. ryan: sometime around 2:00 p.m. here in st. petersburg. the prime mister will be on change, addressing business leaders. he may also have a message for creditors. we will be listening and carry it live. back to you. guy: ryan chilcote joining us from st. petersburg. we will look forward to what exactly will be coming up. caroline: meanwhile, the standoff between creditors and greek officials continue. thousands in athens rally outside of parliament. tom mckenzie is on the ground in athens. tom, give us the mood. tom cole and the mood was best summed up as anger and fear. -- tom: the mood was best summed up as anger and fear. there is fear about what is
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going to happen next. the great unknown. one investor told us that the government is grandstanding has present its relationship with europe. he said varoufakis and tsipras has been posturing on the european stage and has left greece cut off from its neighbors. we know there have been recalls from greek banks. every protester we talked to says they have with john money out of the banks and stored it at home. -- they have withdrawn money out of the banks and stored it at home. people there on wednesday said things cannot get any worse. one lady said her father's pension had been cut. she's prepared to leave the euro because she does not think anything can get worst. -- anything can get worse. there seems to have been a mood
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shift, with greece -- with greeks who held a glimmer of hope now seeing a possibility of a greek exit from the euro. i have been out this morning. there's no sign of a run on the banks. i've been out in seen people at the atm. it is a normal morning here in athens. we know deposits are being with strong. that could be stepped up, given last night's failure to come up with a deal. people are now holding out for something positive. caroline: the emergency meeting. thank you very much indeed. tom mackenzie in athens. guy: mr. tsipras saying the greek exit would be the beginning of the end. it doesn't seem to be the beginning of the end for the euro right now. let me show you the chart for the euro-dollar.
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looks like a heavy formation. what surprises a lot of people is we are not seeing a move lower on the euro. we have an emergency meeting taking place. we have the ecb meeting today. let us get kit juckes's take. i know you're surprised it hasn't gone lower. kit: i'm surprised it hasn't fall -- it hasn't fallen lower. when all the newswire started talking about an ecb meeting today. and whether the banks are going to open on monday. if the banks were not going to open on monday, i do not think we would be here. i think you'll get general disbelief. you think we need the grown-ups in the room not until now? equally, a majority of people thinking that some kind of
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compromise at the very last moment is the more likely outcome. caroline: on the flipside is it the dollar that is keeping the euro safe? kit: they felt more pain. you go back to thursday's meeting. it was not a very exciting press conference. the rate hike is still on track. it is going to be gradual. you could've written that script . as you can see from your chart we jumped. you can see which side was the weaker side going into it. guy: data shows people are lightening up. there is a long-term story emerging. is that going to carry on? kit: short-term traders speculators -- short-term traders, speculators in particular have reduced their positions.
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on the other hand, there are a lot of people that have been short on the euro. short time investors. hedging equity exposure. they feel no need if they made that move from 132 105, back to 115, with these headlines i am not sure that gets you out. we do not get new sellers. guy: kit juckes joining us. caroline: coming up, we will talk greece more. prime minister says the grexit would be the beginning of the end for the eurozone. our next test thinks it is only a matter of time -- our next guest ranks it is only a matter of time. ♪
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hour in london and frankfurt. welcome back. you are watching countdown. these are the stories you need to know. caroline: greece has moved closer to an. a meeting with officials. euro area leaders will hold a summit in brussels on monday. last night, thousands of greeks protested against the government outside the parliament asking the nation to be saved. guy: the ecb holds its own emergency session. they get together on the phone to discuss the deteriorating liquidity situation with a greek banks. it will take place in frankfurt. the center of it will be in frank for around 12:00 -- the center of it will be in frankfurt, around 12:00. caroline: the bank of japan maintained its record. the governor announced the
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transparency. it will release its report on the economy and the inflation. as well as publishing the forecast. guy: let us see if we can stir things up. greece if it were to exit would spell the end -- the beginning of the end for the eurozone. that is what alexis tsipras has been saying. let us get his take on it. -- -- let us get his take on it. george, we need some grown-ups in the room. if greece were to leave, it would be the beginning of the end for the eurozone. what happens over the next 72 hours? >> the intervention of somebody
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-- yesterday morning, the banks may not open on monday morning. it is a reprehensible thing to say. that said, there is a chance that they won't or that they will at some stage be a bank holiday. the threat of looming capital control. when both sides are staring armageddon in the face rather than just shouting at each other something will happen. if it did happen -- this is it. i do not think it can go on for much longer. there could be an arrangement which would be celebrated but we would wonder if it was worth it. and six months time, we will be
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doing this all over again. -- in six months time, we will be doing this all over again. the ecb has it within its power to precipitate creases exit -- to precipitate greece's exit. the governing council will pull back. i do not think they would do that and less they have political cover -- do that unless they have political cover. they say it is a lost cause, -- it is too dangerous for ecb to say they are not concerned. guy: george says there's a chance they do not open on monday. if they do not open, walk us through the reaction. kit: the immediate reaction --
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there is a tipping point when it becomes clear that whatever deal we finally get does not restore prospects of growth for that sustainability. we start worrying if we make the step -- which is hard to avoid when banks have not been open for any length of time. there is a deeper gloom that would be likely to set in, in terms of we cannot get a solution that gets the system up and running again. the odds still favor a deal. it is a deal that is bad for the euro. it is certainly bad for confidence and growth going forward. that is the point for me. george: it has been said that
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there are 2 billion euros separating greece from creditors. this is not about the fallacies of a deal. this is about the exercise of power and winning. this is why i think kit is roughly right. [laughter] the odds just about favor a pullback at the 11th hour. both sides will claim that good since prevailed. -- that good sense prevailed. somebody has to win this. you cannot have two winners. caroline: there are other things at stake. they have had the contagion contained by the ecb. they have doubled since march. from portugal to spain. how much could we see?
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we have comments saying it is the beginning of the end. they are trying to force their side. george: tsipras would say this wouldn't he? the rest of us are left to speculate. something that was your revocable, if greece left the -- something that was your revocable, if greece left the eurozone. i do not think this is the end of the eurozone today. i do not think whether there is another crisis that it becomes a more serious crisis, unless further integration -- well it could be a balance of payment crisis, political crisis anything could trigger it. it does not follow that we are on a slippery slide. we're good to end up broken by christmas.
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guy: give us your point of view. what do your clients what to hear? difficulty do not want to hear it is about to collapse. they're not instant -- kit: they do not want to hear it is going to c about to collapse. they are not instant interested. they buckle their belts and have it -- and have an internal if i wish. imagine in their eyes if they let another european country off the hook. we are at a difficult point for the eat for the internal politics.
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guy: welcome back to countdown. it is 7:30 in london. what does that mean? we are 30 minutes away from the european market open. the foreign exchange story. caroline: i want to take us to the dollar index. for the second week, the dollar weakening. .7% the extent of rate rises. we are expecting a half percent -- a half percentage point.
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goldman sachs saying the great hack coming in december. -- saying the rate hike coming in december. if you look over the course of the week, we had it up 6 -- have it up .6%. the ecb is going to be on the phone today, discussing whether they extend 3 billion euros worth. we get the adults in the room. european leaders calling an emergency meeting and brussels. -- it an emergency meeting on monday inan emergency meeting on monday and brussels. guy: the stories you need to know this morning.
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finance officials need to reach a deal over acrimony. area leaders will hold and mercy meeting on monday -- area leaders will hold an emergency meeting on monday. caroline: the ecb is to hold a session of its governing council today, to discuss the deteriorating liquidity situation with greek banks. the call is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. london time. guy: the opposition party doubling its backing. promising tougher immigration laws. they're calling for an alliance with other eu parties.
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let me talk you through what we are looking at as we head toward the market open here in europe. could the is speaking now. you'll want -- kuroda is spe speaking now. looks like the ftse are going to open in the negative territory. remember that the u.s. markets did close higher last night. the euro stays firm as well. we will watch out to see how the markets work their way this morning. we'll watch and see how kuroda impacts the story. caroline: he is speaking now. he is saying a virtuous cycle is working in japan's economy. the economy continuing a recovery. long-term inflation expectations gradually rising.
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they seem resolute that labor markets gathering wage sensation will start to see been especially with oil prices. guy: let us listen in to george: this senior advisor for ubs -- let us listen in to george magnus senior adviser for ubs. george: there has been ambivalence about what the bank of japan might do. what it might increase. i think we should look through the noise and assume the bank of japan is going to remain on course. it would be silly for them to reverse course. the economy after having a
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toward year last year there is still a risk they may still a -- they might still do it again. inflation expectations have been proven to be like pulling teeth gradually beginning to move up. the most interesting thing going on in japan changes in corporate government. a little bit below the radar screen for those thy hired -- those diehard equity investors. a wider representation. there has been discussion about newark robotic -- new work robotic companieer robotics companies.
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there is a lot of corporate welfare in japan. the employment rate is not really representative. i think the government situation in japan is changing. if there cash pal -- if they can be persuaded to part with money and give it to shareholders it would be in conjunction with what the boj is doing. it could be a surprise. i'm not optimistic these days. caroline: what about optimism for the united states. do you feel that janet yellen is doing too much to talk down interest rate increases? is the economy doing too well? george: i think the feds want to
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raise rates. i think they are scared of doing so. this is why -- you mentioned about the goldman sachs report about deferring until september -- until december -- i am not sure about that. i think the costs are improving after a toward beginning to the year. -- after a torrid getting to the year. beginning to the year. it looks like the united states is unique among industrial countries. all we have had is the bad news about capex from oil crunch -- oil companies being slashed and burned.
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there are various measures of savings rates in the personal sector. if you start to see that trickle back down which i think is likely, i think the economy in the summer will provide the backdrop. guy: if yellen is disingenuous is it -- doesn't the game changing? george: unlike the japan -- unlike japan in 2000, they raised interest rates. i do not think the united states will be like one striking out. they will be cautious and slow. they will be couched from -- guy: is she shallow? george: i think it is safe to assume that it is.
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they will do a few rate increases. this is not an "normal interest rate cycle." caroline: we heard concern about what is happening in greece. do you abide by that? you think the u.s. economy would be hit by what is happening? george: not directly. what the united states is worried about is a failed state on the southeastern flank of europe. one that is in conflict with russia. instability in the middle east. politics is driving greece out of the eurozone. geopolitics keeps pushing it back in. there is still a chance under merkel's leadership that europe may try to pull it back one more
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time. i do not think there is any price she would pay for that but we still may be in an environment where she may be willing. guy: she did talk about exports. the euro significantly lower, that would make it harder for exports. nevertheless, we get euro dollar down to parity or something like that. george: between spring of last year and the first quarter this year, the rise in the trade rate is by you at a dollar. they are sensitive to it. anyway, the americans are the only people who can basically accommodate a rising currency. we are reliant on them to bite their bottom lip. they may do so. caroline: what about what is happening in china? extending its drop to 5%.
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guy: this is the chart here. we are down 10%. we are now trading at session lows. we are heading into the lows -- we're heading into the close. george: who knows? this is the classic greater fall market. if you are brave and want to play in a market which has nothing to do with the economy, then there are levels you want to get back in, because interest rates will still come down in china. there will be more infrastructure programs. people's bank of china is trying to get liquidity into the economy as fast as it is flowing out here it this is a classic bubble. it will carry on going up.
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caroline: where do you buy? george: i have no idea. caroline: hedge funds a record 77 billion invested in china. george: if you drew that chart for a slightly longer. , the last that -- for a slightly longer chart, that last part. guy: -- george: it is being supported by the government. xi jinping's father created the stock exchange. it runs in the family. caroline: george magnus is going to stay with us. think you very much. -- thank you very much. guy: we will see as we firm up. where going to check in in a few
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minutes time -- we are going to check in in a few minutes. as you can see, yields are high in portugal, germany. we are buying the german 10 year. we are selling peripheral european bond markets. caroline: currently saying eight policy meetings a year is a global standard. they are changing that's that's their changing that. -- they are changing that. he seemed to be talking against -- guy: coming up, we go live to frankfurt. the ecb is holding an emergency meeting. we will talk about what is going to happen next. we'll go to frank for and get
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caroline: welcome back. it is 7:46 here in london. a: 46 if you're in paris -- 8:46 if you are in paris. guy: euro area leaders will hold an emergency summit on monday. protesters gathered outside the parliament. caroline: the ecb is to hold an emergency session of its counsel this morning. the court is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. officials expected to consider a bank -- a greek bank request for 3 billion euros.
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guy: igo kuroda -- kuroda plan -- he is speaking right now talking about monitoring policy. the difference it has an effect -- the difference it has. caroline: we bring in george magnus, still with us. we are going to be talking more about greece. it seems as though, are you surprised about the lack of reaction, in terms of the -- in terms of the euro in particular. george: it is being quite remarkable. it is not the first time that
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markets do not how to know -- do not know how to price for even to out to. -- price for eventualities. the point about that is they are unpredictable. we could not predict what is going to have -- what was going to happen over russia. we watch it unfold. it was difficult for markets to price. for the eurozone if there is some way of assigning reasonable risk of what the next 72 hours is going to bring, then markets would do that. it is difficult. the markets are saying it is
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certain -- it is uncertain and volatile. actually in the end, we think there will be a deal. maybe that is what markets are saying. guy: in the meantime, let me bring in -- hans nichols joining us in luxembourg. paul, let me start with you. what we know about this meeting? paul: yes, that is right. it was supposed to be secret but it has leaked out. greece will be asking for a lot of money. probably around 3 billion euros signaling the vast amount of money that is flowing out of greek banks. it is going to be a difficult discussion, particularly for the greek central bank. the longer-term question is how
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much further does the ecb go on this? they run out of collateral. the question of monetary financing. what will the ecb say about that in private or public? it is going to be a difficult conversation. caroline: talking about difficult conversations, hands let us go to you. talk to us about the general finance minister. he was quiet in yesterday's meeting. hans: according to people last night, he held his fire. he will have another chance to make his opinions known. looks like the eurogroup will be meeting on monday. that is ahead of the leaders su'summit. we do not know where they're going to meet. it could be a conference call.
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you need to get the technical work done. you need to have the documents blessed and received by the eurogroup. part of this is a formality and technicality. at least it has the procedures in place where there is any sort of agreement over the next couple of days which is to say greece submits proposals. they are received by the institution and received as a formal proposals. then the eu group can look at them and score them, figure out how much revenue they can bring in. then they go to the eu leaders on monday night. there are still -- there are still so many roadblocks. finance ministers are trickling into this meeting. they do not think the greek side is serious on offering proposals .
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that still remains the issue. that was the issue last night. their focus the present -- varoufakis presented ideas. those ideas did not have justifiable or least verifiable numbers attached. they do not want theoretical conversations, they want practical ones here it -- practical ones. caroline: thank you, hans nichols. guy: equity markets about to open. he is quite excited about volatility. >> volatility has been climbing a cliff over the past month. fascinating as we have reached an end game. maybe that is the fed. we did it december 2011. that chart going back, showed you the height of volatility.
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this morning, as we look toward the bond market. let me show you another chart that shows you what tension looks like. this is the price of options on futures, cold versus -- the line on the top left, that is people heading to bone -- what i want to show people this is an at echo of 2012. caroline: you have to put it in perspective. what contagion looks like. jonathan: there is a rumsfeld moment coming. we know what the unknown is. we just have to see how it plays out. guy: how can you put out a
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report that the banks may not report on monday? how can they open today if they cannot open on monday? there is a lot of political gains going on. jonathan: we have a guy there, he says they are on cue. caroline: maybe that headline has not hit. guy: guys, we will leave it there. looking forward to your show. george magnus, always a pleasure. thank you for much for taking the time. that wraps up countdown. we have cap did down until the market opens. caroline: do stay tuned as jonathan ferro takes over the wheel.
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johnathan loyd good morning, happy friday -- jonathan: good morning, happy friday. we are moments away from the start of european trading. let's wrap it up and go to the morning brief. china's equity rally is poised to the worst week since 2008. emergency meeting, talks on greeks breakup without progress, the ecb is set to plan an emergency session. the government stumbles towards default. great prime minister suppressed meets putin today, will be there
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tonight -- will be there live. the futures are flat. dax futures are higher by 39 point. let's get to the markets. caroline hyde is here. david is in hong kong. caroline, let's kick it off. caroline: silence is deafening in the market whether you're looking at the euro, or stocks. currently trading flat, flat as a pancake. similar in france for the moment. sparks are flying in the political debate. in luxembourg, the insults coming from lagarde saying they wanted adults.
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