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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  June 19, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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tonight -- will be there live. the futures are flat. dax futures are higher by 39 point. let's get to the markets. caroline hyde is here. david is in hong kong. caroline, let's kick it off. caroline: silence is deafening in the market whether you're looking at the euro, or stocks. currently trading flat, flat as a pancake. similar in france for the moment. sparks are flying in the political debate. in luxembourg, the insults coming from lagarde saying they wanted adults. meanwhile, you get the finish
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minister saying i think we have come to a dead end. i'm getting a grexit? we heard alexis tsipras said a grexit would spell the beginning of the end for the eurozone. stocks pretty much trading flat maybe in anticipation of the next few hours. emergency meetings aplenty. the ecb will discuss more liquidity to the greek banks today. monday, the leaders get together, the so-called adults in brussels. meanwhile, the euro trading lower today. check out on the week what on earth is going on? we see the specter of a great crisis looming, everyone talks
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about a brink, the fx market does not think so, they are expecting a deal to be done. the dollar is down .75%. the dollar weekend on the week -- weaken on the week. ed now we are seeing a little bit of a contagion. -- now we are seeing a little bit of a contagion. meanwhile, money is coming out of spain. we are doubling the borrowing costs from march. portugal has doubled as well. 3.1% is double what they were paying on debt. we are looking towards what
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happens with the rest of the equity trades, and asia. jonathan: let's go to hong kong, david i am looking at a shanghai and -- shanghai. david: what has happened something to keep in mind would be declined -- with the declines 6.5% drop today. is this the start of a deeper winding down of this massive rally? that question is very pertinent when it comes to shanghai. you do not get corrections that often, when they come him a they are >> brutal, and they wipe out just about everything. the last time we had a sharp
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drop, 2006-2007, 70% wiped off the value of the composite. this one entered a correction. the story really is it only took five days for us to get to where we are right now. if you put the damage together this week, monday until now, we are talking 950 billion u.s. dollars wiped off the top. it is the first time since february we are trading below the moving average. what are the index right now. there is ongoing concern over what sort of tax or restrictions will be put on margin lending. a local reports this morning the securities regulator considering -- looking at new rules on how to mitigate risks. market debt north of 250 billion. liquidity is fairly tight when it comes to the markets here.
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there are a lot of ideas coming to the market. with seven-day lending, 2.72%. >> look at equity markets, with the exception of shanghai, things are good. the boj came back in their press conference recently. back to you john. johnathan loyd -- jonathan: greece takes another step towards the fault. -- default. leaders were forced to call for an emergency summit on monday. grexit giving limited time, let's say we reach an agreement it is unthinkable the application is also
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implementation and disbursement would take place before the end of the month, that is unthinkable. >> we are dangerously close to a state of mind that accepts an exit. i urge my colleagues to not comply with a state of mind. >> we can only get resolution with dialogue, we are short of dialogue at the moment. the key emergency in my view is to restore the dialogue with adults in the room. jonathan: let's bring in a bloomberg team, hans nichols in luxembourg, paul gordon in frankfurt. hans, do we have a line on the collapse? hans: varoufakis try to propose some new ideas. they were ideas, not proposals. because they were not submitted through the proper procedures
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go to the technical folks first, make sure the numbers make sense, because it did not go through that, mr. dives are bloom moved to the side. varoufakis did not get a chance to make his proposals. there were concerns with the way greeks are negotiating. that was last night, you played wonderful sound from that that explained how far apart the parties are. this morning, finance ministers are heading in, he went a sense of how little prospects there are for a deal consider the comments from the austrian finance minister, he was just walking in and he said he has no expectation that tourists traveling to greece will have a hard time taking cash out of cash points, out of atms jonathan, it has gotten to the point where finance ministers in luxembourg are talking about whether or not holidaymakers in
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greece will have a hard time withdrawing cash. it will put a lot of pressure on the ecb. the news that will try to break today is how close is greece to imposing capital controls? jonathan: paul, or are high-stakes being played. if you want to strip out the political noise and focus on the data, it is the weekly ela figures. is there a chance for more ela to be extended to greek banks today? paul: there is a reasonable chance that ela will be extended again by the ecb. two days ago greece had asked for last couple -- asked for less, now they're asking for more. it is getting close to the point where the banks do not have enough collateral that is
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before the ecb thinks about changing the haircuts on that collateral. it is going to be a difficult decision. it will be difficult for the great governor and everyone on the telephone call. jonathan: paul gordon, big thanks for joining us. for more, liberte investors point of view. we have the global chief investment strategist at black rock. we're talking about bank runs, capital controls, how irresponsible are some of the politics? >> what we can here in the statements, how impatient the europeans have become with the greeks, and how much political goodwill they have gone through in a short. of time. jonathan: in terms of consequences, a grexit is a big decision you do not fall into. you make a conscious decision to
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do that. i am interested in the imf consequences, if they go into arrears with the imf, what are the consequent is for the ela? >> they are trying to establish the imf separate from the european system. technically that is correct. the ecb is reluctant to take a political decision to suspend the ela or increase haircuts and thus push the greek system over the edge, in a sense, the ecb is waiting on the european commission, which is waiting on the ecb. jonathan: they are making what looks like a political decision. >> i think they are playing to the rules. for as long as they are supplying ela, the greek banks are sold and -- solvent.
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the solvency of the greek banks depends on the collateral as they post. as long as the euro system collects -- except that is good collateral that is fine. jonathan: we are moving to european leaders on monday, does that make a difference? we focus on the numbers from the finance perspective. from a leaders perspective we think beyond the numbers and the big picture. >> the pension fund reforms that is on the table, we are looking at a 2.5 billion euro gap between the two parties but in terms of principles we are looking at the big gap. somehow we have to the money.
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jonathan: i am interested in the investors take. you look at the banking system now, do you have a day in mind? >> i think it depends on how quickly domestic greeks take money out of the bank. you never have a capital crisis unless the domestic agents do not trust the banking system, i think that is what we're seeing. i'm not sure it is wise to save banks cannot open on monday. that is the acid test. we can say with 100% certainty, if it escalates, capital controls are very much part of the game. jonathan: do you think greece is calling out bluff?
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when we talk about a deal five minutes until midnight the deals in europe do not happen like that. >> this is not a game, theory -- or theory, this is real thing. i think alex express -- i think suppress -- alexis tsipras was to keep the euro. jonathan: we have entered the 11th hour and a great crisis that means we have one more hour to go. chinese stocks stumble after a stunning rally over the past 12 months. the shanghai composition suffered its worst weekly drop since 2008. after two weeks of conflicting comments, we may hear less from the central bank of japan. they will cut down on annual meetings. alexis tsipras is in russia, and
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so is bloomberg tv, will bring you the latest from the st. petersburg economic forum. these stories and more throughout the hour, good morning. ♪
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jonathan: good morning, and welcome back. this is "on the move." let's get you up to speed on where my guitar. equity markets in london dead flat. the dax goes higher.
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a long day ahead. let's have a look at the fx market and the bond market. euro sterling, fascinating. heading for a ninth straight day of losses. that is the law -- longest losing streak so far in 2015. spreads were blowing out again this morning, they are kind of right now again. the spanish yields go lower. what a week spanish bonds have had. they went all the way down to 2.2%, big swings again. not a lot you can read into the greek crisis right now, that we will take it down over the next hour or so. let's bring you up to speed with some of bloomberg's top stories. danish voters -- the danish
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party is willing to enter an alliance with other parties. scotland's largest insurer named a replacement for david niche he stepped down after six years. the stock is unchanged. the bank of japan rate at -- maintained its market stimulus. beginning next year the boj will increase the frequency of their reports. they will also cut the number of policy meetings to aid the year. -- eight a year. it has been quite a ride for chinese equities. the shanghai composition has soared but this week, it stumbled 13% in the last five days. it is the worst weekly drop
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since 2008. we are joined by richard frost in hong kong. richard, we have to asked, apart from the big ride over the last year, what you say today -- do you say today? richard: it has been a shocking week for chinese stocks. there are a number of reasons, you can point to astronomically high evaluations, huge numbers of ipos loaning funds out. you had a noisy chorus of people calling this market a bubble. it is coming up to the end of the second quarter, there was no real overarching reason why we suddenly see this slowing down in equities. usually when you and i talk we talk about big rallies i know it has been volatile, this drop today is the biggest in three weeks. certainly the concern now is, is
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this turning into a panic? this is the beginning of the end? there is also concern about margin controls? nothing particular you can point to today. jonathan: i am going to grit my teeth when i asked, some are saying this is a buying opportunity. is this a by the bit moment? richard: you have to put your money in the right place. when we talked to jpmorgan, it has been bullish in asia, it is exactly what they said, they do see it as a buying opportunity. in their eyes, the government needs this rally to continue. they want to shore up confidence . they can cut back ipos.
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they can ease concerns they will clamp down on the record amount of margin debt. there is stuff they can do. in terms of jpmorgan, they think you should seven. this is not going to be the end. we know there are many other people on the bearish side those voices are getting louder. jonathan: does the people's bank of china step in? this market is becoming quite linked to the economic success and prospects of the economy going forward. do you think they have a run for play? richard: it is a long weekend in china this weekend. there is room for them to step in. people have been expecting them to cut the reserve ratio, they thought they would do it last weekend. there's plenty of room for them to ease, and everyone will be
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looking to what the government does to try and ease attention that has been rising with the dissent we have seen and stocks. any direction by the government to try and short equities, that could provide a support from where the market can go from here. jonathan: richard frost in hong kong, thank you very much. let's bring back the global chief investment strategist from blackrock. it was about chinese authorities walking a tightrope. people from the left and right are trying to refocus the economy, do they make it? >> in the financial markets we all move towards the inner -- interim nationalization of
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currency. by the way, i think we should use the word bubble that is what it is. we are seeing it deflating quite rapidly at the moment. this is a classical sign of the sort of market the biggest ipo this week was a securities company. the turnover has been twice that of the new york stock exchange. jonathan: when you look at some of these ipos, they are just a value of bids that you locked up. they lock up 200 billion worth of bids, do you think the ipo story has drained some of the market? >> absolutely. i think richard is right in saying to support the stock
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bubble would look like the government is backing up mates. jonathan: is that the physician already? >> i think so. you cannot have the rising like this without a lot being done by people who do not have the money to do it. the tide is going to go up, and there will be people without. jonathan: the big problem in china has been the debt eusebius big ideas they are raising capital through equity markets, do you take a look at credit now? >> i think you are right to raise a point -- that point. if you look at foreign investors, they have taken up half of the equation. they have taken up 100% of the quota of debt securities. i think over the next five-seven
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years we have an evolving story in what is already the third-largest trade market in the world, becoming the second largest at the same time opens up to proportionally more foreign investment. jonathan: a lot of people are said last year that was where the risk was dcd risking in that segment? >> if you can't find a pseudo-government bond in a country, you have to asked the question why would you want to buy the equity? jonathan: thank you very much. coming up, a man with a debt. an analysis of haruhiko kuroda stimulus plans. equities pretty much flat. the dax, oil prices up.
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the stoxx 600 still heading for a week of losses. markets open in just four minutes. the euro going south. euro sterling heading for a ninth straight day of losses. the bond markets were whiter --wider. the german bonds, what a ride we go lower by three basis points. we will talk about these markets, japan, and he said after the break. stay with us. ♪
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jonathan: good morning, and welcome back to "on the move." 30 minutes into the trading day let's get you up to speed. it is going to green, the 5100 up a 10th of 1%. the dax goes higher by 70 points this morning. in the green on friday after a messy meeting yesterday over greece. the markets are shrugging it off this morning. let's which of the board and have a look at the fx market. euro-dollar is weaker. if you're going on holiday, euros sterling on a nine day losing streak. there we are down this morning. body yields down to 0.87%.
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let's go to caroline hyde. caroline: those exposed to basic materials are feeling pain. we are seeing rio trading lower. the reason is the concern about china. we have entered corruption territory. many wondering about china's appetite for raw materials. copper is down for a fifth straight week. iron ore, worst week in more than two months. the miners are some of the biggest losers. the biggest loser the stealth line -- voestalpine. goldman sachs, ubs both cut
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their recommendations on this particular stock to a cell --sell. what to draw your attention to fidelity is offering to buy a new tech company. we have seen it jump up it is valuing the company at 1.7 billion pounds. jonathan: we will take it to japan. earlier this morning the central bank maintained its record monetary stimulus as governor kuroda speaks about inflation. let's go to willie. any signs that all they are done easing?
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bring us up to speed. willie: there has been confusion. i covered the federal reserve in washington for many years, now we are focusing on boj speak. we are trying to figure out the ins and outs of that. when you look at japan's economy at the moment, gdp is doing better, there are some indications that the boj's massive stimulus is paying off certainly the weak profits. we are not seeing a lot of companies raising wages. in many ways the boj is focused on inflation, but that is a symptom of japan's problems, not the underlying illness which is the lack of confidence in the future. i think you will see more boj action later the biggest reason is because it is the only game in town.
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the prime and a surface talked a lot about structural reform, he's not come through with it. in many ways the boj has been doing a lot of work, and they will need to do more later on when gdp, when the economy in general loses momentum. when you look at japan's exports at the moment, there are indications that the external sector in europe, the u.s. not recovering as quickly as hoped china slowing is affecting japan, so the boj will do more. jonathan: the boj will do more but they are set to speak less the bank is becoming more transparent. transparency apparently equals speaking less, maybe there is a message in the central bank. willie: a lot of what garuda is trying to do with the boj is a bit of a confidence game. it is about giving the idea that the economy will be in better shape in six months.
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the boj medication process has been failing in that regard. the boj is taking a step closer to the fed in the terms of meetings and transparency. i do think the boj is looking around the world and trying to find examples they can edelman here to get more traction. the boj has gotten very little traction in terms of inflation they are looking at any way they can get more bang for the yen. jonathan: a lot of talk about more bang for the yen, in the united states there talking about exit strategy, is japan even close to talking about that? i asked that because when we talk about a deep pit of stimulus you have to dig yourself out of, how deep is the pit in japan? will that be the biggest task in the world of central banking?
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willie: i tend to think there is talk now about boj tapering, i think that is premature. if japan has shown the world anything, including the fed, cutting rates to zero is easier than getting them away from zero. i still think the idea that the fed will be raising rates aggressively in the years ahead is a bit of a reach. once you get a zero, you will be stuck there for a while as japan has shown us trade japan is not even mulling an exit strategy. corona would love to --haruhiko kuroda would love to but markets get addicted to cuts. in the boj began to talk about tapering, the stock market would take it badly. the bond market would take it very badly. if yields began to rise, that is the last thing the japan's finance system could sustain. i think the boj is at zero and
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beyond for a couple of years. jonathan: thank you. final thoughts from the global chief investment strategist at blackrock. getting away from zero is difficult. we keep talking about more stimulus from the bank of japan, how difficult is it going to be for the bank of japan to ever fullback -- pull back. >> you are right. is worth reflecting. the boj is one of the biggest providers that has been driving markets forwards. the boj has been worrying about exchange rates recently. if they gave the signal they would slow down purchases, i don't think the markets would take that will -- well, even though they have been doing that
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for a good domestic economic reason. jonathan: what if you read right now and what the japanese currency's are doing? >> it plays along at a stable rate, and then it didn't down since march -- dipped down since march. you can see japanese insurers have been substantial buyers of foreign bonds. the savings bank of japan has been a substantial buyer of foreign bonds. you have seen yen a by domestic investors to get high-yield. jonathan: the fed story, the first hike, everyone speculates you look at goldman and city is the take away, no one knows? >> we think it will be september, and a gradual path
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thereafter. we think the u.s. economy is stronger than the headline numbers show. real incomes are actually rising in america. i don't think anyone thinks it will be a steep rise. jonathan: we have moved away when the first hike will be. we have this confidence that we will have a shallow rate path. everyone says, look at that it is dovish. is that the biggest risk, the future rate path may not be that shallow? >> monetary policy around the world is the biggest risk in financial markets. it has driven assets forward in a material way. when we talk about european markets in april and into may win bond prices were falling in
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europe, so were equity prices. there isn't a lot of diversification, they are both inflated. jonathan: from a market perspective, when you look at a rate hike prospect and we look at the probability, are we too comfortable? >> volatility is higher than it was a year ago. particularly bond volatility. i think people are using volatility as a protection if of course we are wrong, there is a high inflation risk, that would make us move faster, of course, all bets are off. jonathan: in the fx space and bond space, maybe, not the u.s. stock space, why? >> it has risen a bit. the reasons are the tightening
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of dollar liquidity, and the last two quarters in a row in america there has been no growth in america corporate earnings. the market is driven forward by the splurge and the concentrated bet on the technology sector. jonathan: great to have you on the show. up next, alexis tsipras and st. petersburg -- in st. petersburg. it is high-stakes local poker. let's check in with the great stock story -- greek stock story. i will go straight to my terminal, we are up .5%. it has been a brutal week, we will talk about it after the break. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back. 44 minutes into the trading session here in europe. blanket green, session highs. the dax of 91 points. we are ending a rough and of leiweke -- rough and of leiweke. -- week. let's look at the fx market. the euro weaker by .3%.
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euro sterling heading for a ninth straight day of losses. a stronger pound is the story for the euro if you have a holiday coming up, you are richer. ten-year bonds lower in spain by 2.27%. the 10 year german bond is down .78%. let's get the top stories. stocks in shanghai continue the fall closing down over 6%. investors are concerned china's longest ever bull market has gone to the unsustainable levels. the anti-immigration danish people party emerged, they are willing to enter an alliance
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with other parties. greece moved closer to default is a meeting of finance officials to reach a deal. leaders will hold a emergency session on monday. thousands of greeks protested outside parliament. we are turning to russia, that is what alexis tsipras is hoping to do, he is in st. petersburg to meet vladimir putin. ryan you have not had a chance to pin down citrus yet, but if you get a chance to sit down with him, what would you asked him? -- asked him -- ask him? ryan: he has been outwardly cool as a cucumber. he went into a meeting went
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out, did not take questions, he was smiling. this morning his office put out an e-mail saying this emergency summit is actually a good thing suggesting that is what the great people wanted all along -- greeks wanted all along. he is going to be talking gas with the russian president, that is coming up later today. why? because greece wants to be a new transport of for russian gas. the greeks want to replace the ukrainians, it is far away in the sense that first they have to get the turks on board then they have to get the eu on board to get this pipeline going to where it needs to go. he is here, he will be speaking to investors in a short while. he will be sitting down with the russian president.
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if he is worried about cutting a deal with creditors, he is not giving any clues away. jonathan: ryan, in terms of people you have been meeting, big oil majors in russia, what is the story? ryan: even before this meeting, the out-of-state was raining on the party here in st. petersburg. russia has been the largest crude producer. the u.s. overtook russia as that a couple of weeks ago. i spoke to the chief executive of europe's largest oil company yesterday i panel discussion. i asked him about this idea, good russia replace opec as a price that are on the market. >> shale is sort of the balancing supply, in a mechanism
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much less transparent and difficult to execute than for instance opec can do balancing the market. in the long run, keep in mind, they have about a million girls a day, supply will continue to drop -- million barrels a day, supply will continue to drop. you have to think about the time frames, we will be looking at meeting at least 25 million barrels a day that will not come from a little bit more shale from the united states. ryan: he take away there is we need oil from the united states russia, we need gas from russia, another thing i deal with signed
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-- a deal was signed that indicated they would like to jointly expand the shale operations. jonathan: great work. thank you very much for joining us. charlie rose will interview president vladimir putin during his annual session of the st. petersburg international forum. we will bring you live coverage from noon u.k. time. up next, we wrap up the week with a couple of charts fred we talk the dollar, chinese equities, and greek banks. we will see you in two ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move. cap we are 53 minutes into the trading session this morning. that is almost it for another week of trading. let's wrap up the big news with charts. the fed signaled it is on track to raise rates for the first time since 2006. the central bank also signaled that subsequent increases will be more gradual than anticipated. next, we take it to china after an eye watering run this year the shanghai cop as it has stumbled. it has stumbled more than 13%.
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the biggest loss since 2008. check out shares from out the bank, the stock has suffered massively. the stock has fallen more than 20%. it is the biggest loser on a stoxx 600. we're watching greece for the rest of the day. let's get out to hans nichols who is following the great story and luxembourg -- greek story and luxembourg. what we wake up to monday -- what do we wake up to monday morning? hans: it depends on the emergency conference call later today on raising the ela, increasing liquidity to the greek banks. there is apparently a flood of capital outside of greece, so bad that we just heard the
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austrian finance ministers to calm the situation by saying he does not think to wrist will have a hard -- tourists will have a hard time withdrawing cash in greece. no one was optimistic. there was a great deal of realism. as george osborne said, you have to hope for the best, but plan for the worst. jonathan: when we move up the food chain from finance ministers to leaders on monday does that move us out at all? hans: maybe two months ago, the consensus was that varoufakis was not a good heart and her, that seems to have changed. metal guards call to have adults in the room, implies that the varoufakis is not an adult and citrus is, we will see whether
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or not that holds true. jonathan: fantastic coverage. as we head to wrap up, check out euro sterling, a nine day losing streak. it is the longest losing streak since september 2014. i will be taking advantage of that losing streak, because i am away next week. well i come back to a different eurozone? you tell me. that is it from me. good luck for the rest of your day. have and all some weekend. -- awesome weekend. ♪
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francin leaders are planning a summit monday. thousands take to the streets of athens urging the government to reach a deal. the latest from the greek capital. prime minister tsipras will meet president putin at the st. petersburg economic forum. with rival twitter set to be ready to launch its first marketing campaign, we will hear from facebook's emea head.

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