e latest on the economy. the new composition is expected to show the third monthly decline. european markets just opening. it's going to be another day of games. caroline is at the touchscreen. caroline: what a day. yesterday we saw a quarter of a trillion euros added to the stoxx 600. ftse 100 up. risk appetite very much in vogue this morning. 48 hours to get what tsipras himself the prime minister of greece calls a viable solution. wednesday the finance minister meets. i set the agenda for the ministers together once again. now our attention must go to the greek domestic political

environment. this will ultimately determine how quickly they can get the money in and what it means for the june 30 payment. three days of declines, but look at the move. up against the dollar. you have suddenly got goldman sachs saying, think about the disparity in monetary policy once again. the u.s. would like to see rate hikes. you see yet more bond buying coming from the ecb. we could see it hitting parity. currently 1.1272. we will see if that makes sense to goldman sachs over the next month or so. money coming out of germany. we are seeing bonds rising. we saw big moves yesterday. check out what is happening in greece.

yesterday we saw one and a half percent down in terms of borrowing from greece. we saw some significant moves when it came to greece in terms of borrowing costs. they came off by some five percentage points yesterday. we are at 22.68% if they theoretically wanted to enter the bond market. let's have a look at the stocks to watch. we have a whiff of m&a. check that out. they come out saying, we are indeed confirming that we could be in talks confirming a possible merger discussion. you would see europe at retail. people liking consolidation in the market.

this is one of the big players in french telecom. this is what patrick druggie owns. this is a company that might not be able to buy up its rival. it seems the economy minister voicing his discontent even further and his ministers seems to not be liking this. they are saying bad for the economy and investment as well. petrobras is up. the u.k. provider of services is actually lower. the prophet is going to be waited significantly but it was looking pretty upbeat in terms of profitability. we have the data coming from france, germany, and the eurozone. we see french manufacturing rising. mark: let's talk about that

french data. it is rising to the highest level in almost four years. markets economics saying the purchasing managers index rose to 53.4 from 52 in may. that is the strongest since august of 2011. that's the compass it index the index measuring both services and manufacturing. the gauge of manufacturing increased from 49.4. that's the first time it indicated growth since april of last year. the measure for services climbed to 54.1. cheaper oil, a weaker euro providing a boost to consumers and businesses within the french economy. we get german pmi data in roughly 20 mind -- roughly 29

minutes time. david, good morning. david: a very good morning to you. it was a very good session. we are closing up shop. about an hour or so in trade. asia-pacific is the benchmark including japan. that is four days we have seen gains. those takes up -- these take us to levels close to june. caroline was pointing out the amount of the value in europe. here in asia, $120 billion on top of what happened friday. you put monday and tuesday together. we are looking at 220 billion. blue chips, i am getting confused. let's give you a quick look at what happened.

we had the nikkei 2252%. a three-day run. to a lesser extent, gains across emerging markets here in asia. i want to focus on shanghai. this was really volatile. for the first time trading since the massive run we saw on friday, that is how the session look with 2.2%. -- looked with 2.2%. let me just draw a few diagrams. at the start we were up 1%. we dropped 260 points. that is a 6% swing. it is up 7%. that is the swing. we were down as much as four or four and a half percent. what is worth noting we have this shanghai hong kong connect

which allows money to go into shanghai, foreign money basically. since the program started in the fall of last year we have actually managed to use just half of the daily quota of 2 billion. only two times. there is a lot of foreign money here in shanghai. they are basically advising clients of the sharp decline in china. they would like to continue over the short term. stabilization perhaps yes. i think the first of july we get the official figures out of beijing. a very good day. back to you. mark: let's get to one of our

top stories. european leaders say talks are possible. greece was given 48 hours last night to make the final push needed to resolve the standoff. hans nichols has the story. guy johnson is on the ground in often -- in athens. talk us through what happens in the next 48 hours. >> it is going to be an interesting 48 hours. we need to see some details scratched out. we have what looks like a positive momentum, but what happens remains to be seen. the imf is taking a fairly hard line. at the moment the greek proposal which has been well received is focused on tax rises more than cutting the scale of the government, and that tells you a lot about what happened with mystic politics. i think the creditors would like

to see a little more -- with domestic politics. i think the creditors would like to see more of a push. it is going to be interesting to see if the greeks go for that. the greeks have taken something from this. it looks like the surplus is going to be a little smaller. 1% next year 2%, 3.5 after that. it looks like we are going to see cuts in spending. i think that is the area where we will see sticking points. mark: what has the response been from the institutions? hans: cautious optimistic. even some of the harshest critics are indicating this is a step in the right direction. angela merkel seemed positive last night. she did indicate the next coming hours would be the most intense. it has been a good four months

since that agreement initially agreed to fulfill that program. we finally have a proposal on the table creditors aren't laughing at. the question is do the numbers add up. do the revenues match the targets that apparently have been agreed to? 1%, 2%, and three. the eurogroup will meet back here on wednesday. they will be able to see if there is enough progress. if they say there is enough progress you could have a thursday meeting and you could have an overall agreement. then it comes to a political question. the germans are clear they will not vote until the great element actually votes. mark: we will speak you -- to

you both later. let's bring in the chief investment officer at black rock. did it make sense, some of the movements? was it misplaced optimism or not ? >> it's clear regardless of whether the negotiations are positive, at least they are moving in the right direction. investors have a huge sigh of relief on the markets. 5% lower yields. it's extraordinary by historic standards. that gives you an idea of how tense it is. mark: do you think we will get a deal? it has been stipulated as crucial. >> the banking sector has been under a lot of pressure. there is an urgency about

getting a deal done. we are optimistic. there is a lot that is still going on and still has to go on. mark: how do you expect bond markets to continue to behave through the rest of the week? >> investors are like children. they can only focus on one thing at a time. if the greek situation is resolved, i think we have to be a bit sanguine. resolved means the situation is going to be put aside for the next several months or quarters. we are not going to get a final resolution today or tomorrow, but we are going to get a relief over the next several months when the greek government can work out what it needs to work out. mark: do you think we could get a relief? >> they are looking at time to let them work out the real problem. mark: that means the payment to

the ecb is less of a problem? possibly it could encompass some of the payments that are due in the next month. >> i believe they will get some sort of agreement so they will be able to meet some of their obligations and even beyond. to resolve the real structural issues is a multiyear process. what investors are looking afor is the conversation to continue but without the pressure. mark: they are going to have to worry about a deal struck. there are red lines. it seems like some of those might have to be crossed to strike a deal with creditors. let's say we get a deal next week. is that the next immediate hurdle? >> this is a delicate balance to

balance the creditors and their internal politics and also the platform. it's not an easy situation. i would suggest at the end of the day if we are talking about the greek banking system, about the future of their economy, cooler heads would prevail, and we would get an interim solution done to work on the longer-term problem. mark: coming up, is germany cheap enough yet? we break it down with pmi data out of germany. there are grexit concerns on the euro. the danish central bank governor says the kroner is likely to see the same safe haven in flowflow and why it is a big deal. we take a look at how 2015 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for the m&a.

do you really believe we are going to have a deal on greece in the next 48 hours? that is the big question of the day. that's where you will find me. tweet @markbartontv. ♪

mark: raising the cap for

emergency liquidity. the ecb has raised the cap. it happened on a daily basis. we will find out how much the cap has been raised. i want to bring you up to is been with top stories. european leaders have given until tomorrow night to make the final push needed to satisfy creditors and and the standoff. alexis tsipras submitted reform measures. finance ministers will meet tomorrow at ahead of a scheduled summit of eu leaders on thursday.

the british company is in talks over a possible merger. if the deal goes ahead it could see the rival. shares are up. further evidence the slowdown in chinese factories is easing. the preliminary purchasing index beat estimates, coming in at 49.6. although it suggest the market is contracting, it does point to a stabilization after an easing of monetary policy. what does the latest pmi figure tell us? >> i think people are interpreting it as being stabilization at best and perhaps a sign things aren't getting any worse. it is one of the first raises we

have seen since june. we have had industrial production and retail trade, housing sales, which i'll indicate china's economy is starting to bottom out. -- which i'll indicate china's economy is starting -- which all indicate china's economy is starting to bottom out. they are pumping through to infrastructure projects and keeping the workforce taking over. the central bank cut interest rates three times since november and taken other measures to promote lending. taken all together as we head to the years midpoint, economists say maybe china's economy is stabilizing. mark: does this paint a picture of an economy that is stabilizing? >> i think that is the message

people are sending. there are positive signs emerging. however, it's a tempered outlook. nobody is calling the definitive bottom for china's slowdown just yet. there is excess capacity and the export sector continues to be sluggish. in real terms the chinese exchange rate is stronger against the euro and the japanese yen. all told i think there is a sense perhaps it is not getting any worse for the chinese economy, but no one is calling for a rapid turnaround just yet. mark: things for bringing us up to speed with what is happening in china and hong kong. the ecb is once again raising the emergency liquidity ceiling. it's a daily process. it used to be a weekly process. now it is a daily process.

>> the ecb doing is the best it can to keep the situation liquid and keep the banks functioning. they will continue to do that as long as negotiations are moving forward. mark: do you see capital controls being implemented? >> there is some indication. it is not near a 50-50 percentage. it is an option they have where they have to address serious capital flight from the banking sector. mark: that would happen if these deals fell apart. let's talk about what is happening with the u.s. it's a pleasure not to talk about greece for a few minutes. we are looking ahead to what the fed is doing especially in light of what happened last week. where are we when it comes to the first rate hike and the pace

of rate hikes thereafter? >> we believe the first rate hike will come in september. i think the economic situation is robust. you look at the trajectory of inflation and the overall economy and consumer activity. despite cost cutting, it's pretty robust. we think the fed will begin to raise rates in september. the pace of rate hikes will be measured. the fed has been a measured group when it comes to this rate hike. i think they will take a cautious approach. nonetheless, lift off should begin in september. mark: why should lift off begin when inflation is still far from its target? >> you had a strong situation in the u.s., where you had the labor market growing as strong as it has in almost any time in economic history, and you have a strong consumer activity plus a windfall from lower gasoline

prices. it may not show up in immediate inflation data but you see economic activity very strong. you see and improving labor market. mark: the fourth quarter was an aberration, wasn't it? we can put that behind us. >> the quarter seems to be slower it than the rest of them. we would suggest a pretty strong rebound. remember, levels of rates are at emergency levels. we are incredibly low. what we are not talking about is adjusting the rate from 0% to 1% in one go. we are talking about taking it off the emergency level. mark: what does it mean for the bond market? how well valued is it? >> we have had a dramatic adjustment already, whether

related to liquidity concerns or the ecb. we would expect long-term rates to rise, but not as dramatically as before. in the near term we find the ten-year rates to be relatively fair, given the current environment. mark: this two-month slump, has it run its course do you think or not? it essentially started in the middle of april. had it run its course? price if it moved to the economic fundamentals i think the european numbers support that. there has been stronger economic activity globally. given where we are with rates it is not the best environment for bonds. we have seen basically a 0% return in the global fixed income markets. i think it's going to be a

challenge for bonds to have that historic return, particularly given the environment we are in. near term i don't see too dramatic a shift. to expect the typical five or 6% return is a bit of a challenge. next stay there. he will stay with us. coming up we get a health check on the german economy. pmi data hits the wires in a few minutes, plus we will see how the athens stock market opens after its 9% rise yesterday. that was the biggest rise since february. in the meantime, tell me what you think about these wild moves we are seeing in stock markets and on markets. the biggest increase in years yesterday. wild swings. will they persist?

follow me on twitter, @mark bartontv. ♪ . .

mark: welcome back to "on the move." i am mark barton. 30 minutes into the trading day. how things are shaping up. the game not as big as yesterday. only 30 minutes into the session. still all around ftse is up 0.25%. cac 40 had the biggest increase in three years yesterday. our top stock stories. caroline, what are you watching? caroline: a bit of m&a in the air. biggest move in at least eight months for the company. they confirmed a merger with

gala coral. gala coral online business as well. the board has not decided whether the transaction is attractive. investors think so. and bunzil is on the downside. a logistics company. north america looking a little bit weak as saturday lost a little bit of business. it, too, is on the m&a parts. in u.s. columbia, canada, and friends looking to drive itself in terms of acquisitions but seemingly organic growth not quite as much as expected. on the downside is hitting session lows is numericable, one of the key players in france. it is owned by peter drahi.

many think it will not get done up a cause of the government. m&a banker himself saying he is opposed to the deal. as for the economy, employment and patrick drahi has a lot. mark: getting pmi figures out of germany. the details. reporter: a beat again. we sat the friends at numbers beat estimates and a cipher german -- we saw the friends numbers to beat estimates -- france numbers beat estimates and so did german. that increase, that is what happened today. the preliminary reading for june. a bit of a slow down for march. that is up again. actually this year, germany is forecast to go for esther that he eurozone -- faster than the

eurozone. mark: dax is the way the worst-performing indices of this year, hasn't it. are we on the cusp of a rebound or not? reporter: not a good quarter for the dax but not all year. you can see a big increase to the start of the year where it peaked in april. what happens is is drop as is much of 11% of correction. the rebound in the euro wrapped in bonds and the concerns over greece. it led some analysts to say that the dax could drop as low as 10000, all the way down there. jpmorgan saying it is time to buy the dax again. it predicts it could jump 13% through this year all the way up to 13,000. that would take it off of the chart and the dax to a new record high.

mark: talking about the dax prospects of the future. scott is still with us and david, bloomberg intelligence. david, i will stay with you. two pieces of data out of france and germany. old stronger than expected. does it tell you that the eurozone economy is better shape than we thought or not? david: it is telling us of the economy is getting a small boost from oil prices. starting to rise again in april and a lack the data came off of the peak registered. the latest month, oil dropped a bit in the month of june you are seeing this here. yesterday in consumer survey. mark: would you d -- when you dig but neither german numbers companies roles of the least of this year does it underline it is still a little bit mixed, the

economic outlook? >> mix in the sense it looks like march was the peak and when mario draghi had his less press conference and less momentum. when you look at quarterly averages, the second quarter are still on track to growth at least as fast as the first quarter did. mark: scott, how are you feeling about the projection? scott: many market analysts talking about differences. we had an economic convergence, it is outperformed. and the u.s. has slowed ever so slightly. i think it is my mind it is likely to continue. the tube is drivers are low -- and the two biggest drivers are lowered euro and the year and oil. mark: the euro has not quite materialized. a is down above for the last few

weeks. is that a fed thing? scott thiel: greece thing. once participants move from greece and had their greek concerns by buying the euro and my concern is that once that situation dissipates and we stop talking about greece and focus on the fundamentals, for the year we are around parity to the dollar. that will come into more focus. it will continue. mark: in your projection, david is parity more likely than not in the medium to long-term? david powell: i would say, yes. markets are driven by the drama in germany. -- in greece. the real economy is driven by the lower euro and lower price of oil. once the drama passes the euro

will probably catch up and the underlying story is the same. ecb is still is and while the fed is talking about tightening and point to lower euro. mark: that central-bank divergence in policy action scott, it is still a big theme playing out in fed, u.k., japan? scott thiel: we are looking for it in the fall to play out. the ecb's reaction and upward projection of inflation. we do not expect they'll to taper the qe program that is ridiculous to discuss at this moment. for the qe to be extended but downed 2016 -- beyond 2016, you have to discuss. the environment we are in verses when they initially announced qe. mark: what are your thoughts when we hit 2016, a difficult decision?

david powell: the program is highly unlikely before september. if anything, it's more likely to be asked ended. the risks lie in that direction. mark: scott, what does it mean about rates? is the bank of england going before the fed or after? david powell: certainly after. the u.k. situation is robust and our discussion about the emergency levels in the u.k., i would suggest it is not appropriate for the state of the u.k. economy. the numbers are still depressed. strong construction spending, it was revised up it revised of gdp. and a strong labor market. the bank of england moves after the fed so the november meeting would be in my mind at the first opportunity. mark: how difficult it will be to replicate in bond markets in recent years. give us a quick flavor of the

types of bonds we should be investing in the coming quarter. scott thiel: in europe interesting opportunities. the ecb's qe program will continue and a positive outlook on greece. you have periphery markets that have yields of 2%, 3%, 4%. those yields on portuguese a bonds are too high in the environment we are in especially for the next several years. outside of europe, you have to be sensitive to the upward trajectory of sure endres especially in the u.s. we like assets that will not really be impacted by verizon short-term bulwark credit story. a bigger spread. mark: scott, david. 21 for joining us. scott thiel at black rock. -- thank you for joining us. and david powell. we'll talk mega m&a.

2015 is set to a big the biggest year since the financial crisis. ♪

mark: i am mark barton. this is "on the move." the greek markets open. reporter: the act's stock exchange has open higher not as much of a jump yesterday when we saw it arrived 9%. a bit more subdued.

a rally nonetheless. over the past year actually the trend has been downward. you can see that little jump yesterday as see it again for today. this is optimism that agrees will reach a deal with its creditors. they have been given 48 hours to come up with something eu leaders can approve at the end of the week on friday. optimism driving that risk appetite. if i drill into the benchmark, the biggest gainers the bank leading, national bank of greece is one of the biggest gainers. gaining 9%, 6% respectively. national bank of greece is leading the gains on europe's. we had a news that the ecb is said to have raised the cap again on emergency for greek

banks for the fourth time in less than a week and reassessing on almost a daily basis. finally, a check of the bond market. borrowing costs calming down in greece. 26 basis points at the moment down on that 10 year bond. not as much as yesterday when you saw the borrowing costs down 100 basis point. we are seeing greek bonds arrived. mark: thank you. the total value of all deals this year on track to pass through trillion dollars for the first time since 20 -- $3 trillion for the first time since 2007. what are some of the big deals? guest: good morning. we have seen some of the biggest so far this year with shares in bg energy. a few years with no deals and energy. it is a big splash and then

pharmaceuticals with tnt. mark: what is behind this the splurge in m&a? manuel baigorri: it seems to be the perfect time. many drivers. there is more confidence in the economic recovery so that is making ceo's more optimistic about undertaking some of this. and also the equities which is helping you know the optimism to some extent. and also acquisitions by combining cash and stock which is one of the trends we are seeing. also when you think about it some of the acquirers when they announce, they say it is quite positive.

ceo's are excited that if the announce a big purchase, shares will not collapse. mark: what other deals are we expecting? where to by the health insurance industry yesterday. any big ones in health or externally? manuel baigorri: health care is on fire. so many deals. everybody [indiscernible] tremendous consolidation with a medical devices and healthspring as you pointed out. everybody is talking to everybody and they need to boost savings and keep up profitability and m&a is perfect tool for that. mark: good to see you. manuel baigorri. let's shift gears and talk about climate change print some of

europe's biggest oil companies publish an unprecedented letter. announcing they were on the wrong side of history. let's get more on this from our bloomberg reporter. who was included in this letter and what did they actually have to say? reporter: the largest including bp, shell, statoil. they are saying they want a global price for carbon and they think after the end of the year when we have the climate change summit, we need to how bold action to keep addressing climate change. mark: is that what is significant? javier blas: asking for a price of carbon everywhere, not only europe and california but they wanted on a global basis including the u.s. india, and china. mark: who are the winners and losers? javier blas: the winners could

be the energy companies for putting out the letter. they are promoting natural gas against coal. they are saying we know it is more polluting. the loses could be the coal produce light glencore and countries -- indonesia, australia. mark: great to chat with you. there will be more as we approach that meeting at the end of the year. bloomberg reporter javier blas. what about the uk's membership in the eu. companies backing david cameron. we will discuss after the break. stay with us. ♪

mark: i am mark barton. greece has until tomorrow night for the final push and the five-month standoff wedded to split the eurozone. alexis tsipras sent proposals. eu leaders will meet tomorrow. [indiscernible] pmi is up since may signaling

the french economy is games strength. -- is gaining strength. germany economy is stronger than expected. manufacturing climbed. shift gears and talk about the u.k., the british chambers of commerce said it will back prime minister david cameron and his bid to keep the u.k. in the you if he secures a deal to help the economy. -- eu if he secures a deal to help the economy. how important is it for business to support david cameron on this? reporter: we know business is supportive of u.k. in the eu. when you look at the last referendum, the scottish referendum people came out late and it was last minute panic so it is important now that those

big business groups come out and actually say look we can get them reforms and will the prime minister. and it is really is the big deal. mark: backing austerity reforms and a list of five here. what are they? is there they are they? svenja o'donnell: most of them are achievable. improving the common market improving the market for the economy to thrive. i do not think there will be much optimism. the two sticking points is an opt out. it would be a treaty change and with heard voices from countries such as germany who say it kaput an addendum to the treaty. that is key. the real issue that is causing trouble at the moment is immigration. david cameron wanted to secure curbs on so-called n-word

benefits. the benefits migrants review -- receive as soon as they get it. -- on so-called inward benefits. it has caused all kinds of trouble such as poland and germany was said it is actually completely breaking as a key rules on which is the eu was funded. mark: where are we in turn is a negotiation? svenja o'donnell: cameron has talked to leaders and figured out where the sticking points are out what to be achievable reforms are in moving to the so-called technical phase when the bureaucrats take over and bash hash the legal elements that are key to making the negotiations achievable. mark: when the referendum might take place because we broke some big news last week. svenja o'donnell: we did. it seems the british government

has decided on october. initially, there was some talk that they were eyeing may and david cameron had to climb down on his original intentions. it seems october was the most realistic date all along because it gives time to get the reforms out. and he wants to do it next year if he can print mark: thank you. bloomberg reporter svenja o'donnell. greece and the creditors step of negotiations for a deal tomorrow night. the central-bank governor weighs in on his country and government could deal with a grexit. >> you are always ready and we have all of the necessary tools to cope with that situation. i do not think that is highly likely. there are huge differences from the situation in 2012 and a situation right now. mark: he outlined why he is not concerned about safe haven

inflows. lars rohde: you could say the risk of a grexit or even a more profound destabilization of the eurozone. after that time, there was also people speculating in the likelihood that germany maybe do some returns, steps. and you can see the danish krone as a substitute for the future deutsche mark. that is not the case this time. i think it is highly unlikely we will see some kind of inflow due to the safe haven spectrum. mark: that's it for "on the move ." stay with "the pulse" with the numbers that are beating estimates. weigh in on today's stories.

you will find me@markbartontv. another day of gains. yesterday's 9% gain. in 4 days, it has risen a by 12%. see you nice and early tomorrow. ♪

francine: deal deadlock. greece is given onto wednesday to satisfy creditors and end an impasse. chinese manufacturing data beat estimates of but indicates contraction. british businesses say they will back cameron's bid to stay in the you the only if he backs of five key reforms. we will talk to the british chamber of commerce director later in the show. welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua.