u.s. gives economic growth. throughout surveillance conversations with larry summers, greece and europe will restructure their debt. good morning, this is bloomberg "surveillance." it is thursday, june 45. the headline, moments ago, a true restructuring, somebody asking for the needed. brendan: coming from the managing director of pimco germany. conventional wisdom, we accept as truth 180% of debt to gdp. hard to imagine anything but a restructuring for greece. tom: this ecb jargon came up again, what did they just decide? brendan: they have no choice but to get political. they should not continue extending this to the greek banks. it the liquidity assistance from the greek banks, they will have

a hard time keeping these negotiations going. tom: it has been a wild the last 40 minutes. spreads widening between greece and germany as we speak. top headlines. >> in brussels, a meeting and they are running out of time after a long night, the greek primus or return for more talks with the imf ecb, and european union. european officials said the talks have yielded little and mario draghi let the meetings. the financial times says cyprus has been told to come up with a cover lies and the austrian finance minister is saying the greeks handed a new paper to finance ministers and a new deadline has been set for 10:00 a.m. eastern. one european finance minister yesterday said there is still hope. >> i do not see it as a waste of time. now we will have a meeting tomorrow and hopefully get a

concrete proposal. >> the argument has been that greece -- tsipras is under pressure for more austerity. for the obama administration to complete a trade welcome of the senate has voted to make it easier for him to negotiate an agreement and houston grants are likely to concede -- house democrats are likely to concede. a second prison employee has been arrested in the escape of two convicted murderers run a new york prison. the officer, gene palmer is accused of bringing tools hidden and frozen meat to the inmates he has pleaded not guilty. police have been searching for almost three weeks for the escaped prisoners. goldman sachs president says -- explained in a podcast. >> we are probably less ready

than people think. it is interesting how it comes as a surprise to everyone when something happens we have been talking about for a long time. >> he says qe and u.s. are good examples, the move had been anticipated for some time. the market swings when they happen. president obama has faced his share of hecklers, but he showed no patience with a protester yesterday at the white house. president obama: no, no no. hey, listen, you are in my house. as a general rule, i am just fine with a few hecklers. but not when i am up in the house. >> it happened during a reception for gay pride month, the hacker was protesting the divorce and for lgbt emigrants.

later the president said guests are drinking the booze, they are expected to listen. [laughter] guests on surveillance are drinking the booze, they need to listen. tom: he is a smooth guy at those kinds of things. data check -- a lot going on. thomas jordan speaking. the euro is weaker spreads are wider in greece. you do not see it expressed in the united states, futures up. moving around, and the last hour, i look at the german government, the 10 year at .84 and the german two-year a -.20. the bloomberg terminal this morning, economic data back to the united states, 20 years of the core pce. inflation gives pause to people we are back down there.

the goal is to get above this average line and get to normality on inflation. good luck with that. brendan: looking at this average line, everybody's target is 2. it is not at 2. tom: the average line below the academic target. we need to go to brussels, the intensity picks up. we can rip up the script, in the last 40 minutes, we go to hans nichols in brussels. what is the tension right now what is the change? hans: everyone is wondering whether there is a blueprint done by these leaders. if there is a blueprint they are putting the finishing touches on, it goes to the finance ministers, they meet at 1:00 p.m. there are a lot of meetings. since we last talked, there have been various meetings and various buildings in brussels

for all but those crucial hours between 1:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. it does not seem we have anything official. tom: very quickly, is the backdrop a "run on the bank in greece?" is that the ultimate constraint driving these discussions? hans: not yet, that could help the week -- happen next week. it looks like the ecb have a difficult time extending a lifeline. as long as talks are going, as long as the greeks have not gassed up their planes and let in brussels for athens, i do not expect the ecb will short-circuit that by cutting off liquidity assistance. brendan: the bloomberg summary said they were details left where greek debt tensions, that felt like everything was still let to be discussed, do we have any sense of what the specifics sticking points are?

hans: we do not, i wish i did. the most recent we have now is george shelley the austrian finance minister, he said the finance ministers had received a piece of paper, but he said it was heavy on tax revenue, the increasing taxes and very little on spending cuts. what mr. schilling has, that is not a starter for the imf and germans. tom: we will rejoin you at the top of our next hour. i met at pimco discussing what is a haircut. this is one of the great spirits of ubs, let me turn to the terminal and read this for our guest. the greco german crisis when i was a small child, i would regularly screened for an hour every evening, my mother's

strategy was to shut the door, and ignore me. from your prism of the united states, should americans focus and be aware of what is going on in greece? >> we have to be aware of what is happening. i think the practical consideration for the stock market is that while economists believe a greek exit is something that can be handled, there is still this uncertainty factor where no one can be sure that there will not be a fallout in peripheral countries like spain and portugal. probably, it can be handled there are firewalls in place. it is this uncertainty that is hanging over the market. tom: i have talked about the

massive success of ireland in confronting this versus what we see in greece. the backstory is the knock on effect to spain portugal lithuania, and ireland. maury: that is right. that is where the ecb and eu have set up firewalls, it is hard to be sure they will work. vonnie: people talk about greece having been in default several times, what is different this time? maury: they have been given extensions in the past. in the past, they have not been able to live up to the agreement. what is different this time is they are running out of patience on the part of the creditors. brendan: this is a lack of trust. revenue is less trustworthy than cuts in spending, is that the weight you look at it? maury: that is right, also in

terms of growth, there has to be concerned if you load up on taxes, that can be harmful to businesses who are supposed to do the employing, get this thing moving again. tom: we will come back to greece through the hour and through all of "surveillance." with us, phil mattingly in a new york for meetings. it is an extremely eventful day for you, but nothing is important as what the senate did yesterday on trade. as the president goes to sign this trade bill, how big of a victory is this or president obama? phil: a huge victory in that it keeps his trade agenda alive. this is foreign policy, huge for their asia. which has lacked teeth. it is that big of a deal, and i think this is a key point.

all it does, the 12 country trade deal, it eliminates the excuses, there is still a lot of hard work to be done on the actual deal, this aluminate a huge roadblock and clears the path forward domestically for the president if they can get that deal. brendan: you are already spending time on the campaign trail, is this the president's last heavy lift? phil: iran will be the big heavy lift and that deadline is coming up. his negotiators are still hard at work. one thing to look at, five of the presidents former advisers on iran and nuclear policy signed onto a letter that was released yesterday, questioning where the administration is going with this deal. not only is he getting hit with republicans and hawkish democrats, but also his own advisors that were involved in early deals in this negotiation. there are a lot of problems there. brendan: we will talk about the election later this morning.

coming up, it is earnings day for nike, i do know that phil mattingly did where it as a catcher at ohio state in college . we will look at how nike is winning over china and winning on its own turf. they are a successful company. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning everyone. futures up, dow futures up 75. an interesting take dominated by headlights out of greece. let's get to our top headlines. + for the first time -- maury: for the first time, -- the boston marathon bomber was in a courtroom where the judge formally sentenced him to death.

he admitted he was responsible for the attack that killed three people and wounded hundreds more . more than 20 victims spoke before the sentencing. jpmorgan and pharaoh -- federal regulators are in talks. the wall street journal says the case could be settled this summer. the sec has been investigating whether getting -- whether jpmorgan steer its clients into its own investment products, that generally leads to higher fees. in baseball, what a week it has been four great catches for a fan catching a ball while holding a baby, and now this. it was the blue jays versus the rays. tom: derek jeter. that is not derek jeter. vonnie: he made sure the umpire knew he had the ball. tom: the best catch of the week. phil mattingly, catcher, ohio state.

catching the old days, the ball goes up, you catch it like this. it was totally stupid and young mattingly came along, the catchers caught it like this. the dad with the baby could not have done the old catcher. phil: he knew, you catch the ball at the highest point. even if you are feeding a baby. [laughter] brendan: there we go. it is not just holding the baby, the baby's feed is uninterrupted. tom: phil mattingly with his espn-like expertise. the economy in decline, maury harris will join us, he pushes against that. an important single best chart. also, interesting polls, phil

mattingly with an important perspective on sanders of vermont. brendan: nike owns basketball the nba, the company reports earnings today. nike is a global company, a strong base in the u.s., break it down, what is the more important growth coming here or abroad. ? >> 60% outside u.s. and 40% in the u.s. we do look around the world to get more growth. china or europe, into global football. right now, investors will focus on the u.s. because we saw a slowdown last quarter. that was created through the west coast port. we will focus on domestic numbers and see acceleration there. brendan: they had really focused on markets in brazil and russia

to markets that have not performed as well as you would have expected a year ago. will they try to shift inventory in the next year? >> they are needed -- they already did. they made the deal with the nba the most international league we have here. a big explosion in china. they try to move their focus their. and the developing contract they have will help. tom: everyone talks about apple. this is a coronary, apple's chart is like nike's. alex coronary stock performance -- and extraordinary stock performance. we talk about steve jobs, nobody talks about that magic at nike. >> nike has magic, but you have to look at the strength in the category as a whole. if you look -- monday afternoon,

i walked around a mall in new york, and exporting goods -- dick's sporting goods, that is where we got the traffic. apartment stores, that is where you see the face growing. part of the category strength. brendan: i am looking at a report from -- optimism ahead of the summer olympics next year what is their plan? >> like any other date of it, it brings out ideas and people by u.s. gear. nike is always a part of it. it brings you a lift, but a more secular thing. brendan: thank you. tom: coming up in our next hour we will look at the american economy. he is exceptionally optimistic,

really pushing against the gloom crew. an optimistic bloomberg "surveillance." futures up eight. our twitter question, a phil mattingly twitter question, will the supreme court rule on the side of public opinion or will mr. robertson make real history? we need your informed responses at @bsurveillance. ♪

tom: good morning. the euro surges, headlines coming up, mix and complex. we may have an agreement. we may have an agreement within the institutions. let's go to an important morning

must-read. the former secretary of the treasury at harvard president. brendan: larry summers, i asked him, can greece learn how to collect taxes? here is what he said. larry: i think it is very much a mistake to engage in cultural determinism and cultural fatalism. people believe, 50 years ago, with south korea that they could never prosper because of his culture. earlier time, people believed confusion culture meant china was forever doomed to slow economic growth. there are many statements of this is the way a certain culture scenes, and therefore it cannot succeed economically. i do not think that is right. brendan: he did say that germany

for a time had come to be seen as the thick mat of europe, 10 years ago. i am looking at these headlines, they do strike me as a coronary greece documents sent to the eurogroup, institutions is the keyword. tom: the markets move on this here stock futures surge off what we see in greece. vonnie: stocks below 112, it looked like there was a deal. the institutions unanimously agreed on greek papers and those documents could be the basis for a deal, they accepted some of the greek points however the greeks are not accepting the institutions documents. tom: this has been the hallmark of your economic markets, they clear don't they? >> that is right, you have to have that sense of history that

markets will clear. tom: you see it with futures up 11. the euro churns. i would emphasize, help me if i am wrong, there is confusion within these headlines. brendan: the key headline is institutions accepted some great points, that means we are approaching a deal. tom: our twitter question goes to washington, will the supreme court ruled on the side of public opinion? stay with us, worldwide. ♪

tom: good morning everyone. let's get to top headlines here it is remarkable. vonnie: emergency talks on greece have resumed after a short night. development in the last few minutes, greek prime minister

alexis tsipras returned to negotiations with his countries they creditors. one eu official said that institutions have agreed on documents that could be the basis for a deal. no other details available. greece is trying to unlock more bailout a, but the two sides disagree on pensions, taxes, and debt relief. we could the hours away from momentous supreme court decisions, rulings review on several milestone cases, including obamacare subsidies and same-sex marriage. this isn't will be released at 10:00 eastern, the justices adjourn for the summer next tuesday. louisiana governor the gentle says you wants to shakeup -- bobby jindal says he wants to shakeup the presidential race. he held a rally outside new orleans and plans to talk about his record of cutting government. >> there are a lot of great

talkers running for president. but not of them can match our record of shrinking the size of government. the great speakers help our countries we would be on easy street. vonnie: he says he will fight to destroy isis, get bit of obamacare and require immigrants. whole foods known for its expensive prices is now accused of cheating customers. new york city's protection departments as overcharges are common. they say prepackaged foods are not wait and priced wrong. whole foods is not denying the allegations but says it is not intentional. it is expected to be a big night at the nba draft minnesota has the first pick and is expected to use it to select karl-anthony towns. kentucky make wind up with a record seven players drafted. this year's draft is being held

at the berkeley center in brooklyn. tom: shaquille o'neal walked by me in a restaurant, he is gigantic. these guys are huge. brendan: do you like his mini me? tom: he had a whole entourage. he is huge. they are like this. today's word is "deal-willingness." willingness is important in economics. i got a huge response on my note for joe weisenthal on america's economic future. economists are worried about demographics, a lack of labor force growth. we have maury harris, chief economist at u.s. --

it has been there throughout history. when we parachute in with integration, with technical article progress, will we improve -- prove the gloom crew wrong? maury: basic demographics, that you have slower growth of the adult population and retiring baby boomers. the problem with the gloom and doom thesis is they assume that you necessarily have only slow productivity growth. when you study code activity growth, i looked at it -- productivity growth, you see a tremendous variation. it could be 1% 2%, as much as 2.5%. there is a lot of room for variation. tom: i do want to stay, that was one of the most shameless plugs in the history of the network.

brendan: it was elegant, but talking about long-term structural forces. the formula for growth. we have phil mattingly, when he is not at buffalo wild wings he spends time at capitol hill. is there something washington could get done? maury: one of the most important things would be tax reform. it has always proven politically difficult. marginal rates are too high. realistically rather than total tax reform, the individual income tax you could see worker tax reform down the road. fax corporate tax reform down the road. phil: the hope, with republicans, would that be you could do corporate. paul ryan was targeting that. democrats have made it clear

they need to do it all at once. we have come down to it being politically untenable to start the process, you have to wait. tom: the divide on immigration is still there. we have lots of low skilled people taking away low-wage jobs . john herman admitted to be she says it is not the issue -- at mitsubishi says it is not -- is immigration the driver? maury: new zealand is an example where you have to have a score to get in. they look at characteristics of immigrants and want to only let people who look like they could fit in to the workforce and are needed. politically, we are not going to do that in this country. you will bring in a whole range of skill. well-skilled workers, who can take away low-skilled jobs, you

can also bring in talented people. tom: i have been doing genealogy, my people were seven votes after the mayflower, they would not have got in, they are a bunch of drunks. they would not have passed the score test. vonnie: no one is going to take up that one. brendan: did i just hear quietly a point that immigration costs jobs? maury: it can cause jobs, depending on who you bring in. the hope for immigration is that we have a slower drawling workforce -- workforce, but you will have people retired, tremendous pressure on the health care system where you will need semiskilled workers to take care of all of us retired baby boomers. tom: republicans need the latino vote. there is no immigration bill. brendan: -- phil: bobby jindal

will not get the immigration vote. jeb bush could. marco rubio. one thing you always hear, when you talk to people who have been a private rooms with marco rubio at fundraisers what they noticed, is by the time he is done speaking, if you look to the back of the room, the wait staff is line around the back of the room, they come out to watch . it dovetails with his speeches, which is my father worked at the back of the room so i could work at the front of the room, that has an appeal. it is a dangerous day and to play in the primaries. that is why he does not attack this issue publicly. brendan: we go from the campaign trail back to new york city coming up, wall street is shrieking, the number of publicly traded companies is

shrinking. we will show you the numbers after the break. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning. breaking news, on greece, a

men's confusion. -- immense confusion. vonnie: creditors failed to reach agreement ahead of eurogroup. brendan: the creditors -- the eurogroup are the finance ministers that are also meeting they have to sign off on it so they can take it home to their parliaments for approval. tom: they have not agreed on that. brendan: the hope was the creditors would reach an agreement the finance ministers could sign off on. that has not happened. tom: futures were up 12 and are up eight right now. vonnie: the german 10 year yield is rising. france is over the place. the markets are trying to figure this out. tom: much more on this as brendan explains how we get from greece and the creditors to the eurogroup. brendan: coming back to the u.s., where have all the public companies gone?

the topic of the single best chart. yesterday, a paper titled the listing gap. the u.s. has half as many u.s. publicly traded companies at the peak -- dana did at the peak in 1996. that is fascinating. the money is not any publicly traded market, the growth is not in the publicly traded market it is all about getting in on the sixth, seventh, eighth round of funding. tom: absolutely brilliant, maury harris, i thought of andrew mellon in the present, when we have a slowdown, things combine. maury: there is a strong history of that. you are trying to meet earnings targets. big picture markets are not growing and the way companies

get growth is to merge. tom: that is all there is to it very did a great job summarizing. brendan: half of it is failing -- number of u.s. listing cell phone 8025 -- non-us listings increase from $30,000 to $39,000. outside the u.s., they are looking for capital, inside the u.s., the capital is not publicly traded market, it is going elsewhere. maury: you are seeing more capital being raised in the private market. you are also seeing the need for capital not being as much recently, because you have had good corporate profits during the recovery. corporate profits have been doing better than the economy. there is an issue of the need for financing. vonnie: the question of

productivity, only tech company that are raising money in the private markets, will they continue to see productivity or take from it? maury: our history is that, when you have all of this activity with the tech companies, at some point it will show through innovations. and enhance productivity. vonnie: time to look at photos. top photos -- take a look at the islamic states newly minted money. the coin's match the design, the groups treasury department released blaster, isis says it's need its own currency, because others have been imposed on muslims and slave. they feature a world map, and the instructions, the islamic state and a caliphate based on the doctrine of the prophet. tom: we believe they were minted

in syria? vonnie: that is what we believe. brendan: historically this is how it currencies have been developed. paying your own soldiers and collecting taxes, i pay -- that is what a currency is for. tom: they had a lot of oil revenues that sustain their effort. vonnie: ford announced its bike that will provide hands-free turn by turn navigation and real-time traffic and weather information. it will he able to track your heart rate and feature a no sweat mode, during which users can enjoy the free ride. i do not know. brendan: i am trying to figure out why ford is getting into bicycles. tom: this is the car company? brendan: i wish i had something better. vonnie: they are investing

driverless cars. in china twin panda cubs were born. their mother was artificially inseminated as part of their effort to increase the panda population. brendan: that is a solid -- it depends on whether i would catch it at the high point. i think if there are photos of pandas we have to run them. tom: we do. we have to do baby photos. phil: pandas shutdown washington, d.c. two years ago, waiting for the birth. vonnie: at eight years ago as well. phil: perhaps a good bling -- bring local parties together. -- political parties together.

. vonnie: they need fur before they get cute. will the supreme court ruled on the side of public opinion -- tweet us @bsurveillance. tom: six decisions. ♪

tom: good morning. we welcome all of you worldwide, particularly in europe and greece. vonnie quinn doing a great job trying to sort everything out . vonnie: mourners paying their fighter -- final respects. his body is laying in satellite's capital. he was a longtime state senator. he got better at flag was still flying on the state capitol grounds, but mourners cannot see it. shareholders will get -- the world's biggest energy in a company is boosting its dividend by 50%. disney will start paying the

dividends twice a year is that annually the company posted record profit for years straight. things did not worked out for cleveland cavaliers in the nba playoffs, but virginia's cap layers are big winners -- cavaliers are big winners. they won because world series, the first ncaa baseball championship and avenges their lost in last year's final. there is justice after all. tom: did you ever go to the show? phil: we lost to the super-regionals my freshman year. we used metal bats. tom: it is a whole different game. we will discuss this more. i have to bring this up. brendan: they are talking about the emergence of liquidity. we know within the ecb there is a fight between the germans and non-germans, on whether or not you should continue to bailout

greece. vonnie: they did not increase the ela. tom: much more on this in a bit. brendan: u.s. politics, 2016 has begun, bernie sanders is at 24% in new hampshire, at 24% in iowa. phil mattingly is with us from washington, d.c. he gets higher marks than clinton on his willingness to take on wall street and financial elites. what does this do to the race? pphil: these numbers -- a quarter of the democratic electorate in the two earliest primary states that is a big deal. it weakens supporters 56% in new hampshire, 50% in iowa. -- hillary clinton supporters, 56% in new hampshire 50% in iowa. you need to look below the numbers. hillary clinton's favorable into

hatcher, 86%. and i will, 88%. -- in iowa, 88%. who do you think can beat a republican candidate? 12% in iowa say bernie sanders. there are major structural problems with bernie sanders. what this underscores is that he has a message, and it is resonating, one that hillary clinton needs to keep an eye on as we move to the states. brendan: brand-new post from bloomberg politics, the bottom line number is that he scores higher on authenticity that hillary. does that matter in a real election? phil: on the margins. it matters in new hampshire where you will take every question that every audience member asks, it matters. brendan: can he dragged her to the left? phil: yes.

tom: this is a parlor game, let me cut to the chase. the secretary i didn't have negatives like senator ted kennedy did? will she be buried like ted kennedy? phil: her numbers have been fluctuating the last couple of months. she has problems. she has stared us she will have to overcome between e-mails, the clinton name and general. tom: they are not overwhelming negatives? phil: -- tom: how does she win ohio? phil: she grasps what the -- if you look at columbus, where you have college and minority voters that need to turn out -- cincinnati where you need to turn out minority voters, that is how she wins ohio. you hope that rob portman or

john kasich, the governor 05 are not on the ticket. brendan: what about south carolina, can she undo the damage her husband did to her during the 2008 primary? phil: what you have seen the last week is helpful in the healing process, hillary clinton has gone big on the race issue. these are things on race and being a female candidate, issues she largely avoided in 2008 race, for an obvious issue, not wanting to get into it with president obama. she did not want it to make it about she was a female candidate, she is raising those issues, particularly racial issues, taking over the country's dialogue. she has erased it, going after, in south carolina, that matters and resonates. vonnie: who in the own democratic circle does zero publicans job? phil: this goes back to the structural issues of bernie sanders, he does not have an in-depth team, he does not have

an infrastructure in a campaign, part of that is, if you are taking something on in a primary is opposition research, driving up there negatives. that is not bernie sanders mo on the campaign trail and he does not have the team to do that. it will be interesting to see -- if he changes on that and martin o'malley, the former maryland governor, rented let's so much, if he decides to attack. tom: thank you so much. maury harris, thank you for the usb -- ubs perspective. the euro all over the place, all of this drama occurring as we have people headlining and people speaking. mr. scholz is a name you may not know, with the eu parliament the president of the eu parliament. financing the moment is how i would put it appeared. the headline is mario draghi and ecb say no more. brendan: they are not ready to say no more.

tom: stay with us. another hour, next. good morning, teachers of night over "surveillance -- futures up nine. ♪

tom: greece and the creditors failed to work death rates an

agreement in this hour. they meet to pick up the pieces. not -- the u.s. gets economic growth right. a conversation with lawrence summers, brendan greeley on america, they must stop fighting globalization. this is bloomberg "surveillance." it is thursday, june 25. joining me, vonnie quinn brendan greeley. the headlines are a blur out of greece. vonnie: we have been -- brendan: everybody in brussels has been doing the same thing. tom: i would look at the tape, futures up 10 up 13 or 12, we go down update, and gum back -- come back. let's go to top headlines. vonnie: it needs background

music. a european official saying they may have a makings of a greek debt deal, greece says it has not accepted a creditor plan. an official says they agreed unanimously on the documents which incorporate some great proposals. the official says the paper could be the basis for a deal. the greek prime minister under pressure to come up with an accessible plan. alexis tsipras had a series of a late-night meetings before the proposal came out. one european finance minister says there is reason for hope. >> i do not see it as a waste of time, now we will have a meeting tomorrow and hopefully come up with a proposal. vonnie: the clock is ticking and the crisis for tuesday from the current greek bailout expires. $1.7 billion to the international monetary fund. the obama administration now on a clear path to clearing the asian trade deal.

house democrats are likely to concede. some opponents were won over by a related plan that would retrain workers who lose their jobs because of trade agreements. a guard who worked at the new york prison where the two killers escape will be arraigned this morning, he is accused of delivering frozen meat with tools inside to the context. his lawyer says he did not know there was talk to buy -- contraband. the markets -- the president of goldman sachs says you are wrong, he explained in a podcast on goldman's website. >> we are less ready than people think. it is uniquely interesting how it comes as a surprise to everyone when something happens that we have been talking about for a long time. vonnie: he says quantitative easing in the u.s. are europe are good examples. he points out that the move had been anticipated, but calls market swings once they happen.

president obama has faced his share of heckler but he showed no patience for a processor at the white house -- protester at the white house. president obama: you are in my house. [laughter] president obama: as a general rule, i am fine with a few hecklers. but not when i am in the house. vonnie: it happened during a reception for gay pride month, he was protesting the deportation of lgbt immigrants. president obama had him removed and later he says it guest are eating and tricking the booze, they are expected to listen respectively. that should be our motto. tom: i was doing something with the trade representative, for those of you on radio, it was gary. i was scared -- it was scary.

i was scared. people have to be as gracious as the president was there and move them out. futures advanced. whatever the headlines out of greece, it is a positive story within the market. futures up 10 euro above 112. a huge churn as we go headline to headline on greece. ian shepherdson, he has the advantage of being an award-winning u.s. economics but wonderful perspective on the relationship of his united kingdom to europe as well. how uniform is europe as they approach greets -- greece, or is it what the greece wants. >> this is part of the problem.

not the economics, which is a mess, but the trust has broken down between both sides. they do not trust each other's motives, both sides the other -- think the other is hanging onto the last second to get a better deal, and as a result, everybody watching is waiting for an accident. tom: it is france against germany, the nuance, finland against -- brendan: you have to know about the institutions where european parliament is, how the european commission has been synthetic to greece. -- sympathetic to greece. we see that the eurogroup meeting has been delayed by one hour. is that more important for europe's economy or looking at germany's small and medium companies, quietly increasing their orders? >> this is the crazy thing about this. if you look at the european is this cycle, they still have a

cycle, that is looking pretty good. most of the leading indicators for the european economy have -- are looking great, the german labor market is tight, real inflation pressure. if we have a greek exit that whole cyclical swing is in jeopardy. as long as we are just kicking the greek can down the road, the european business market looks for the good. brendan: this is the argument i hear from people, mario draghi is very important for the european economy. >> he has done a great job from a growth respective. the state of greece is not in his hands. tom: we will go to brussels. only one person on the planet qualified to sort it out, hans nichols. living breathing brussels. how confused is mr. sippers -- tsipras right now?

hans: he has clarity, he did not blink, now we go to the finance meeting and the greek argument you see those flags behind me, the greek argument is they are banking on the fact that germany, or the rest of the eu does not want to have to take down one of those flags. as long as the greeks are in brussels, as long as they have the opportunity to bring something to parliament, this is not over. tom: put out some headlines to give us strength. brendan: we do not know if that was a scheduled speech. walk us through the specifics, alexis tsipras was meeting with the institutions of europe now there is a meeting with the finance ministers, what document left and went to the finance administers meeting? hans: two sets of documents went to the ministers, one that the creditors agree to, the imf, european union, that will be the

operating want at the finance ministers meeting, that will start in about 25 minutes. the greeks are claiming their proposal is still on the table. that does not matter, what matters is all the institutions by default most of the finance ministers are on the same page. they have a document they will be working on. you have another two hours or three hours of negotiation. to try to get something out. one quick note, alexis tsipras cap publicly oppose anything agreed to in the next few hours and bring it to a vote in parliament. he can even vote against it his government could collapse, but there could be a coalition that approves it in athens and you could have approval in berlin. that would be one way you could get this across the finish line involving him rejecting something, but bringing it to his parliament or a vote letting the greek people decide. vonnie: holding onto his dignity by doing so.

they made it clear that they had inched their way toward greece? hans: let's use centimeters not inches. they may be going a couple of seven meters closer to the greeks but the greeks claimed there is a long distance. we will switch back to yards for tom. tom: thank you, so much from brussels. ian shepherdson with us from papillion is this the same germany you study years ago? ian: things have changed a bit. the germans are the key players. my take on the german situation is they desperately do not want greece to leave, the postwar european project dismantled. they see the danger that greece leaving was set a precedent. there is a willingness and

desire to keep greece within the eurozone. it pays germany. the eurozone makes germany rich. tom: can you see a deep rest grace -- depressed greece exist with europe? ian: not without debt relief. ultimately, in the long run, if they will stay, it has to happen. tom: we will speak in this hour to barclays lawrence character, and we will talk to larry kantor about their new vision. stay with us. ♪

tom: we welcome all of you. a morning must listen read rant. brendan: he was not granting -- ranting yesterday. i asked larry summers about the transpacific partnership. larry: we need less promoting of globalization and more managing of globalization over the next generation relative to the last in ration. brendan: ian shepherdson with

us, he is for the tpp. but points out our hyper-focus the mystical he on trade as a way to economic growth is misplaced. the gains from trade we saw in the last 100 years cannot be replicated in the future. ian: there will be a marginal benefit. a net positive for growth with significant redistributive effects. at the margin, domestic growth will be the key focus of the u.s. as it always is in 87% of the economy's domestic demands exports only 13%. even if you drive up exports, they will not magically transform the overall position. i am sure that that trade will be better. tom: catherine mann in paris wrote a book, is trade deficit sustainable?

she owns this idea of the dysfunction in our globalization between us and china. are we still dysfunctional with china? ian: in some ways, but we have outsourced some of our manufacturing to china and that will give us a structural deficit with china for the foreseeable feature. the chinese costs are so much higher than they were. tom: does hillary clinton have traction with our concept of fair trade? ian: it means different things to different people, i do not see anything coming out of the presidential candidates that will make a material defense, and macro economic of unstoppable power and i do not see anyone changing that. china will remain the primary source for the u.s. imported goods. tom: we just had a cogent conversation. brendan: about trade of all things. tom: let's go to greek headlines i love the bloomberg terminal. brendan: it the vents on which

eu official. best tom: we are going to get clarity from the supreme court in the next few days on a number of issues, why we are asking our twitter question will the supreme court rule on the side of public opinion? do you pay attention to what people want? let us know @bsurveillance. ♪

tom: good morning. we welcome all of you from a gorgeous new york city. let's get to top headlines. vonnie: the marathon bomber said he is sorry. he spoke -- broke his silence yesterday. his five-minute apology to survivors and victims families included references to islam. appeals could lead -- the late his execution for years. jpmorgan and reg letters are

discussing a segment that settlement. the sec has been investigating whether jpmorgan inappropriately steered its private banking clients into its own investment products. that leads to higher fees. check out this sensational big league catch, toronto's third baseman alleges into the seats to make the grab. josh donaldson comes up with the ball and the blue jays win. tom: he ran over the kid. a dan holding a baby -- dad holding a baby. it was like derek jeter. a jeter kind of thing. can i say -- i miss derek jeter playing, as a diehard red sox fan, i feel that

way. the end of the first half is upon us it is time to recalibrate, barclays publishes -- janet yellen will confront financial repression. low inflation, adjusted rates are here and still with us, head of research at barclays and he is this is our great distortion will discourse -- will continue. explain to our audience wife inflation-adjusted rates matter. >> there are two components of interest rate, real rates and expected inflation. real rates track the real economy and inflation premiums are the other part. tom: the visualization of a real rates is simple. while things are getting that are -- getting better, you have

to take an optimistic tact? >> you have been talking about greece all morning, a bunch of political factors which are hard for people like us to forecast. if you look down at the real economy, brendan you were talking about this the situation is getting better in the euro area. they have a weaker currency, low energy prices. then you have the ecb's massive qe program, so things are getting better. you have the greece thing you have to handle. vonnie: i have to laugh, greeks have not moved so far, two minutes later, they have moved backward. tom: we continue the comedy act. brendan: in your report, you point out with the u.s. economy going way it is, exports

inflation, to the rest of the welcome which countries are least prepared? >> i think -- when we look across all of the major economies even in europe, the unemployed rate is starting to go down which -- you are seeing some evidence that wages are starting to move up. a lot of that is germany, which is way ahead of the cycle. it is even happening in japan. one thing we tried to get across , we are now in a phase of the cycle where returns are not going to be a strong as they were. you have higher valuations obviously, and once you start seeing evidence of labor markets improving and wages going up the recovery becomes self-sustaining. you do not need the extraordinary degree of monetary support that we have had. tom: within your a poor, what is

important, is dollar strength we have enjoyed that recently. what has been the effect of dollar strength and what will happen if we continue to see dollar strength? larry: i see it as mostly constructive, because the u.s. has regained its traditional leadership of the global cycle and is doing better. what it does mostly is it shifts growth and inflation away from the u.s. toward places where the currencies are depreciating most, basically japan and the euro area which needed more. it stalled in the last couple of month, and especially against the euro, it will resume. we see a going a bit farther not so much against the yen which has depreciated a lot more than the euro has, mostly because it started in late 2012, whereas euro depreciation started a year ago. brendan: a sub theme this

morning has been the domestic growth of the german economy, as it resumed his role as the engine of europe? ian: yes, it is doing pretty well, the labor market is tight and wait growth is up. so -- we have a low and falling unemployment rate, accelerating wages and low inflation. the german consumers position is strong. there is a lot of them, it is a big country driving this european cyclical story. larry: germany was one of the few countries competitive at 135, 140, they kill it at 115. tom: what is your official call? larry: september but people are focused too much on this first

fed rate hike. i think it will end up being a red herring, just as the end of qe was. it will be so gradual. tom: thank you so much, stay with us. ♪

tom: soon -- good morning, everyone. a beautiful late june in new york city. we work a new worldwide and particularly in belgium and grace. here are some of our top headlines this morning.

looking at greece, here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: european finance minister is saying the greek debt crisis is no longer about days but ours. the ministers are starting and meeting right now in brussels to look at a pair of plans. one is from the greek who agreed anonymously earlier, planned. greece says it has not agreed to that one and submitted its own. the ministers say they got less then three hours to present the plan. the greek prime minister alexis tsipras took part in a round of late night meetings. one official says greece projected every group -- rejected every proposed compromise. we could be hours away from momentous supreme court decisions. moldings are due on several milestone courses including same-sex marriage and obamacare. decisions will be released at 10:00 eastern and the judges will adjourn next tuesday. bobby kindle is starting his run -- bobby jindal is starting his run for the run for the bid for

the presidential nomination. he is the 13th official gop president candidate. he talked about the basis for his campaign. >> there are a lot of great talkers running for president already. but none of them not one can match our record of actually shrinking the size of government. it is great speakers helped our country, we would be on easy street right now. vonnie: the 44-year-old is an indian-american and louisiana's first nonwhite governor since reconstruction. whole foods the grocery chain well known for its expensive prices is now accused of cheating customers. new york city's and simmer protection department says overcharges are common and investigators say prepackaged foods are systematically weighed and priced wrong. whole foods is not denying but they say it is not intentional. the big men will tower over tonight's nba draft. minnesota has the first pick and

they will use it to pick kentucky center. kentucky has a record of seven players drafted. duke center okafor is -- picked by the l.a. lakers and the draft is being held at the barclays center in -- and those of the top headlines. tom: i wish the season kept going and basketball kept going and i wish hockey kept going. these are the hockey awards last night as well. it was great. it really shows what modern sports can be. vonnie: you can never have too much hockey. tom: let's go to the bloomberg terminal. excuse me, a pantheon of economics will help me out here. here is the poor ecg, janet yellen cares about this and 2% is where we want to be. the average for 20 or so has been 1.75%. there has been this persistency down here beneath. how big a deal is it that the fed cannot get back to where they want to be? >> they have retained their

usual confidence that they will in the couple years time in that forecast. what is serious is that if you put the cp -- the cpi on that chart as well, you can see it picking up over the last month. the widening gap. tom: i agree but others would say that we need stimulus here to get this up. ian: i don't think we need any more stimulus. i think we've got enough in the system and they came through in the late market. the late market not just in the u.s. but many developed economies, is really picking up and that wage pressure is ultimately going to move it substantially higher over the next couple of years and put more stimulus in today, given how long it takes the stimulus to work, would be a big mistake. tom: the headlines right now. all speaking and madame lagarde has been quiet. brendan: she says the other side is not there and she said the institutions have been working together and this is a thing we no longer called but this is the

posturing ahead of the eurogroup. i think it is interesting that roche on is weighing in on -- from india on this. and he is watching grease prices and that could be a trigger for volatility. tom: is there a contagion here? how do you define contagion increase in shepherdson over to washington? ian: is greece. there will be a few days or weeks of chaos but ultimately, the greek economy is really, really teeny. syria's direct feedback to the u.s., no, there will not be much at all. tom: futures of 10 up 11, we go up seven l.a. go up eight and we go back-and-forth. we hope we can keep you abreast of the parlor game that we are seeing. brendan, what is your insight over the last two hours what stuck out to you? brendan: how willing the institutions are to get together and say, we are speaking as the you, as the imf, as the eurogroup and say that we are

not there yet. tom: let me do a data check. equities bonds, futures up against a. right at 112 peg and i will call hydrocarbon elevated and spreads in greece are wider this morning. brendan: i am brendan greeley with tom keene. we have seen decisions already this week from the supreme court. big ones are yet to come. we are joined on set now with what is left to come the next two days. >> seven total cases and six that are very, very important. we've got a key component of the affordable care act that could be a nation wide legalization of gay marriage, housing dissemination case that is important to business particularly banks and the obama administration which has been using this law to basically get hundreds of millions of dollars in settlements. lethal injection, the ability of states to use lethal injection. redistricting, a huge issue in

politics right now and air pollution. the epa's ability. huge cases and three days to do that. today, tomorrow, and monday. brendan: you pointed out this morning that the story about this housing decision could be huge, particularly for high natural markets. >> basically, to a 1960's era lobby, you are allowed to sue based on the idea that you have been discriminated against not intentionally, but if you can statistically show that you were. the obama administration has used this for hundreds of millions of dollars worth of susan settlements against the banks over the last six years. they are so concerned about what this supreme court could do to this law that they have almost worked behind-the-scenes to settle cases two major cases that were on the cusp at the supreme court consideration, they settled them days before because they were so concerned about what this court could do. tom: a 5-4 decision court for the supreme court or do we expect 9-1 or 7-1? >> on almost all of the cases

well, it is tough but on almost all, it is 5-4. we think it will be most likely 5-4 on the affordable care act and gay marriage probably 5-4. redistricting will be interesting to watch and lethal injection will be interesting. it is one of the most contagious arguments of this entire term in the sense that justices were basically saying that this has been a "guerrilla warfare tactic to completely undercut the death penalty in the united states." trying to eliminate these drugs. that will be interesting to watch but obviously, the affordable care act of the two huge ones. brendan: with affordable care act there has been a shift over the last six months. 47 percent again -- 47% approved of the affordable care act and how closely are the justices watching public opinion on this? >> what's really interesting is

-- and this has been interesting over the last couple of weeks. you look at apple and what is extending is that 43-52 was underwater a month or two ago and it has shifted to that degree. what is interesting is that everybody tries to predict what is going to happen from when the cases are going to come to when the justices will roll. if we learned anything from how they looked at the affordable care act in 2012 we can predict anything because nobody actually knows. when he listened to the courts and justices post term, you recognize they are paying attention to all of this. they are cognizant of the public opinion and gay marriage on that front and they are cognizant of all the dynamics of political dynamics. tom: who are you watching justices -- are matters? >> anthony kennedy is always going to be the crucial person to watch the swing vote for a lot of these cases. on gay marriage, i think basically everything he signaled over the last -- tom: he is a 78 year old and i heard him speak years ago at the

john marshall dinner in richmond. has he changed over five years or over 10 years oversee the same anthony kennedy from decades ago? >> i think you would say he has not changed. legal scholars could probably argue that in two courses on that but what has changed is the types of issues they are taking up in the type of court. if you want to pay the role -- play the role of the swing vote, he has to do it in that just he faces now. the court he oversees is a different court than the one anthony kennedy has been on during his career. vonnie: doing a who is leading arguments on same-sex marriage in -- and obamacare? >> we don't. i think the expectation is that it could be either one of them but as they come out today and tomorrow and monday, they come not in order of seniority, if the chief justice price the first opinion today, that will be the only one coming out today. if one of the younger justices is writing it, then there could be more. tom: thank you so much. very quickly, ipo up and maybe

we will see an ipo and that is breaking right now. let me do a twitter question linking into what we have been talking about -- will the supreme court ruled on the side of public opinion? stay with us. this is bloomberg's "surveillance." ♪

tom: breaking news here. my dating site match.com will do an ipo. vonnie: i think that is what it is called. tom: matthew miller, the dating expert, will explain that there are one million dating sites. matt: i have gone on a couple dates with that site. about 10 years ago. brendan: four you matched with cars or humans? matt: these were in my london days, some of them are pretty good but none of them turned into anything. tom: what are we talking about with matt miller this morning? brendan: we are going to talk about shareholder activism right? matt: yeah, one of the leading experts in m&a law and he advises a lot of huge clients. he is going to change the way he advises clients now because of what happened with dupont.

he went with his tie and group and try to get dupont and the ceo fought him off. he actually won, giving himself his first opinion over one decade. he says this could be a deflection point for the way activist investors and for the process of activist investing and how it really works. tom: and how corporations push back. it is representing the major corporation and the larger corporate. matt: right and they have typically bow to activist pressure because they do not want the scrutiny that comes with the proxy battle. dupont said no and the chief flew around the country back-and-forth for months and talk to retired individual shareholders to try and get them to vote by a slight margin. it has now become a hero. tom: you get an update from bob for fused -- matt: we will talk about general m&a activity as well but it is

interesting that he sees a change because activist investing has been on a tear for the past few years. we will bring on the acre from bloomberg to talk about -- we will bring on nate baker from bloomberg to talk about this. i have been so excited about this story and it is so dramatic and interesting at that and today i realized nothing is going to change. tom: brendan, help me here. there are two separate documents. brendan: that is a word function and we could of been using that the whole time. my favorite headline right now from the finance minister slovakia and traditionally very hostile to greece, allow me to not be optimistic anymore. abandon all hope ye who enter brussels. tom: this is being monitored worldwide. i do not want to overplay but there is a little bit of a list still in the market but "market

makers" will move through the morning keeping you abreast of what is going on in brussels. brendan: we will have dueling redheads, dueling documents. matt: you make of that what you will. in the meantime, robert curfew second coming up. brendan: "market makers" at 8:00 eastern. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. a bloomberg's "surveillance." let's get to the top headlines and here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: final respects paid to the pastor killed in the charleston church massacres. his body is lying in south carolina's capital. reverend was a longtime state sender. the fate of the pilot is unknown this morning after a u.s. fighter jet crashed in arizona. the f-16 went down near the mexican border can get a fire. the national guard was on a training site. a bigger chunk of record profits

from disney. they are boosting the dividends by 15% and disney would pay the dividend twice a year instead of once. he closed record profits for years straight now. things did not work out for the nba's cleveland cavaliers. richard's cavaliers are winners. the school top to vanderbilt 4-2. it is their first ncaa baseball championship ended avenge his their loss in last year's final. those are the top headlines. tom: do you hear that clink? i don't like it. south of boston is where these guys finally use wooden bats. it is way, way hard in the winter. wooden bats -- pitchers are ahead of the batters. brendan: our new way out in front and how desperately based on needs to reform? tom: i am way out in front. brendan: but not with metal bats? tom: go to wooden bats. [laughter]

brendan: cal ripken. things only tom keene says. tom: she said you will always have to mention cal ripken when necessary. i did, wooden bats. ian shepherdson with this this morning and he is flat-out optimistic on america's economy. let's first look at the oil downdraft. it is done, over and we will get final perspective on greece this morning. dr. shepherdson oil, $100 to $60 to $40. we are back. ian: it is nearly behind us with impact on the oil business because we have seen a huge downdraft. i think we are pretty much done with that now. maybe another couple of months and we should be thorough. what is happening now as we are finally starting to see the

benefits. tom: doesn't get you to 3% gdp? ian: i am pretty optimistic. brendan: what does spending look like? i it looks ok. an: we're looking at a 10% apex growth according to the survey. that is pretty good. brendan: is this a longer way to spending? ian: it is a long catch up. the capital stock has gotten older and smaller and the semantics are very into -- incentivize to build it back up again. vonnie: is it relevant anymore? i i don'ta think it will ben triggered them to raise rates. it will: lead in their view anyway and that is the wage story. we will probably see the wedge hiking in a flat number as long as they believe it is going to increase in the future. that is enough for them to move and what they want is a signal as wage growth and we are beginning to see that. tom: do they have a theoretical

confidence right now? as we going to europe, does the fed have the grounding of confidence? ian: yeah, everything we are seeing is consistent with the idea that the correlation number will not go any lower. we are not talking about deflation risk in the u.s. anymore. that is an old story. in terms of confidence about the clear pick up that they expect well you can have a fair degree but you cannot be certain and that is one of the reasons they will be gradual because they are cheering if they raise rates prematurely then they will not want to go too far so they don't do real damage, but it is a judgment. right now it is a judgment and ultimately it could be wrong. my guess is it will be right and the core inflation will be trending slightly higher. there is an element of risk in all of this, absolutely. vonnie: where will we see them today and is labor headed -- ian: they are astonishingly low.

if you adjust him for the growth of the population since then they have never been low. we have never seen fewer people being laid off and that has got to be good for companies because it means not only do we have stronger growth and new jobs, we have reduced fear among people working and of losing their jobs. when you put them together, you have a robust market environment. tom: bring us up-to-date on europe right now let's get thoughts from dr. shepherdson. brendan: i think we are where we were with europe. the meeting with the institutions in brussels ended with disarray and we are waiting for things to happen among a bunch of fairly disgusted finance ministers. ian shepherdson, we have been talking about trust is broken down because there is not believe that greece, even after an agreement, can collect taxes. do we forget about coulter in these negotiations will we talk about primary surplus -- about coulter in these negotiations when we talk about primary surplus? oian: it has been, certainly.

that is one of the reasons they're skeptical of the greece plan which is focused on tax increase rather than spending cuts. the europeans would prefer the relationship of their way around because they do not believe that greece has been ability or even the willingness, in some cases, to raise the revenue. that's why they want to see spending cuts because they are easily verified. greece's tax collection system was total chaos. they did not know what they were collecting, who owed what and the winner penalties for not paying. it is better than it was but the europeans are still have a residual skepticism that they will do what they say they will do. tom: i see great division within the united kingdom newspapers over the united kingdom staying within the e.u. what does mr. cameron accomplish on his tour and if he comes back from london after the vote? ian: he hasn't a copper's anything yet except groundwork for negotiations which will take a long time. -- he has not established

anything yet except groundwork for negotiations which will take a long time. cameron has to eventually bring something back but i think the europeans realize they have to throw him some kind of bone otherwise he will not be able to use the government to push tom:. where is fair value on the sterling right now? ian: [indiscernible] 150, 145 would be about right. tom: ian shepherdson, thank you so much. do he have an agenda? vonnie: i will be looking at the economic data coming out a: 30 eastern and 9:45 as well. possibly load 3000 -- brendan: i will be looking at the terminal. the situation is starting to get complicated. what is starting to emerge is

that there was a proposal and the institutions came toward greece and greece has projected that movement. that is where we are going into that meeting. it will be a fun thursday in brussels. tom: futures have ebbed back a little bit off of this flow. they will be news flow out of washington. this is a huge deal for the nation and it speaks findings about the importance of your vote in november 2016. the supreme court is our most ignored institution of executive legislative and judicial. they more front and center -- they are front and center of the next three days with an important set of the seven decisions. six of them without question landmark this morning. vonnie, that leads to our twitter? the huge response. vonnie: thank you for sending in your tweets -- will the supreme rule on the side of public opinion? facing the same congressional failure as the fed. tom: well said. vonnie: i would hope so in order

to avoid the majority of the public. brendan: this is a thing that justices do not like to admit. they do not want to get too far out in front of public opinion or too far behind. tom: you wonder if there will be a landmark case over the confederate flag for five years from now. vonnie: this last answer is -- the majority is not always right. then again, [laughter] -- who wrote that in? tom: geneva in switzerland within the comfort of a stable society. someone had to go to switzerland to write that iconic book. stable society, that is what the supreme court is about. ian shepherdson, thank you four different perspective on europe. we will continue bloomberg's

"surveillance" radio. "market makers" coming up with bloomberg television with what robert profusek says. stay with us. ♪

♪ >> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. matt: good morning.

olivia: this is "market makers" at its new time. i'm olivia sterns. matt: i am matt miller. we will get to our man in brussels in a moment. olivia: we will also hear from the billionaire tech investor. we will hear all about his big plans coming up. matt: time for the top stories we're following for you. finance ministers. the greek have one plan. they have agreed to their own proposals, which they presented to finance ministers in brussels.