al: i'm al hunt. john: and i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to donald trump, this time you are -- eh, too easy. ♪ john: happy national waffle iron day, sports fans. who is the most interesting man in the world today? it could be joe biden and it could be donald trump. let's start with two new candidates. first up is chris christie

announcing tomorrow and we about how his mother's death inspired his campaign slogan. governor christie: my mom got diagnosed with cancer and all of you who have lost a family member to cancer, and understand what this scene is like. she grabbed my hand and, christopher, there is nothing left unsaid between us. i know if my mom were still alive, she would say to me, i taught you that in a trusting relationship you don't hold any thing back. john: second up is john kasich who went hyper local about his record as governor of ohio. governor kasich: i did not travel outside the state. i didn't go out to politic. i wanted to fix ohio. we went from $8 billion in the hole to a $2 billion surplus, a balanced budget, the largest tax surplus in the country and growing jobs with everyone having a chance. now i go out and tell my story. hopefully, the polls will rise. john: we will be streaming

chris christie's announcement tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. eastern. who is the most interesting man in the world between these two and who is most likely to be the republican nominee? al: as you know, chris christie can fill up a room like no one else in american politics, but john kasich had a compelling story. he's got a wacky side, as you also know, and sometimes he is undisciplined. but if he can really tell that story and keep some discipline he's got a shot to make a mark. christie had problems before bridge gate. he was a -- bridge gate, the best story you can make out of it is that my hey, i wanted some -- i appointed some corrupt and incompetent lieutenants and i had no idea what they were doing.

john: that is not a great story if that is the best you can tell. i have been wondering for a while about the nine credit rating downgrades, unemployment rate, basically zero growth in new jersey. there is no story to tell there. but i have to say, john kasich if he can get through this nomination fight, he could be a very compelling candidate. i think he will have a very hard time, given the competition and his add, as you pointed out. al: i agree. he would be formidable. he does not have a pathway that is as easy as a number of other candidates. john: it will be interesting to see what happens with him. but he will have to get into those debates. we will see.

al: within 17 hours, the washington post pumped out investigative pieces on both jeb bush's family connections and business backgrounds and marco rubio's personal wealth. credit on both double bylined stories goes to tom hamburger, who also might be the most interesting man in the world. who's got the bigger problem jeb or marco? john: i read these pieces carefully the jeb bush has the bigger problem. one dealt with his and his background and the other dealt with rubio's accumulation of wealth. the rubio piece basically seemed to say he worked as a lobbyist. but there seems to be no smoking gun, nothing obviously there other than working as a lobbyist seems a little untoward. in the bush piece, you've got him in bed with a lot of former business associates convicted of crimes.

one on fraud charges. and you have his friend saying that he worked with a lot of deadbeats and crooks. al: i agree with you on this. the marco story, yeah, he made a bunch of money as a lobbyist. so what? if there is more there, then we will see. the jeb bush problem, he really did have some business associates that were really bad guys. i think maybe two of them are on the lam. his critics will say, if he runs against hillary now, not only forfeit the dynasty on the generational issue, but forfeit the ethics issue, too. john: the opening anecdote deals with a nigerian business owner. when he was much younger talking about a conversation he had with his father and then his father sent a letter talking a lot how pleased he was. it looks a little hinkey for jeb bush. donald trump is out of nbc and univision will not show his

pageants and other things because he called mexicans "rapists." and other bad things. now that he is off the network, it is more or less likely that donald will stay in the race at least until i was? al: i have never seen the light and i really fully appreciated the virtue of the donald candidacy. does this make it more likely he will drop back because he doesn't have the show to promote? or does he figure if we stay then he will get a couple of gigs just as good? john: i think the conventional wisdom is if he does not have a tv career going, he will be more likely to day in because he has nothing else to do. many have said that he is just pumping his tv ratings and that would lead to more money in his coffers. right now he is just writing check after check.

i don't know how he will feel if it gets to be september and october and he is not living in the polls and he is seeing all of those dollars flow out of his bank account. al: we will find out if he is really as rich as he says he is. if he is, then it won't matter much. but if he's got a cash flow problem, i think you are probably right. he will suddenly find greener pastures. john: i know you are not a big fan of donald trump. al: i like his hair. john: but it is striking that he is basically repackaging the campaign of 1996 and that has something to do with his pulling -- polling strength in the past week or so than just his mere celebrity and his name recognition. al: i do, too. the wall street journal reports

that before he died, beau biden asked his father to please run for president and his other son, hunter, also wants joe to run in 2016. he has apparently set a deadline to decide around early august. john, is joe biden going to get in? john: i think it is a case of head versus heart. the head says no. the heart increasingly says yes. both of those pieces reporting in the washington journal, i know to be true. beau biden wanted his dad to run and talked about it before he died. hunter biden wants his dad to run. family means more than anything to joe biden and i think the pull of family have him thinking more seriously than he has in many months. right now, i think he is closer to running than he had been in all of 2015. al: i agree, but here is why i think he will not run. joe biden is the happiest warrior we've known in politics.

at least since hubert humphrey. he is a joyful candidate. he's upbeat. he's joe. when we look at him today, we can all understand why. he is a sad man and a man who is grief stricken. i don't think a presidential campaign is going to be the catharsis for that. i think he is tempted and you are probably right, he is closer than he was before, but i think the head will win out. john: i think that is probably right and i talked to him about it a fair amount a few years ago and there is no doubt that having run twice and failing badly both times before, he doesn't want to end his career with another ignominious failure on the campaign trail. and i think hillary clinton is a steam roller and does not want to be seen as the guy who lost three times badly. in that case, i think the head will overrule the heart. but i think it is tugging at him. coming up, weed, marijuana

mary jane, and a conservative republican who loves it. ♪

john: our guest tonight is dana rohrabacher, republican congressman from the 40th district of california. congressman, thank you for joining us from irvine. we know you are headed out to denver where you will give the lunchtime keynote address at the cannabis business summit. tell us what you will say in that speech tomorrow. congressman: i want to make sure people understand the true issues at hand when dealing with medical marijuana especially, but also personal

use of marijuana, that these are things that make us go to our basic foundations of what we believe. what are the principles are, and these are principles that conservatives like myself should understand. we have been talking about doctor-patient relationships especially under obamacare. we believe in the 10th amendment and in states rights but our founding fathers never believed in the criminal justice system to be run by the federal government. that should have always been part of the state and local government, according to our founding fathers. there are a lot of things, and

individual freedom, not to mention that. there are many things are coming together on the marijuana issues that could bring conservative republicans together with people on the other side of the spectrum, or at least people who thought they were on the other side of the spectrum, to get something done about this enormous waste of our resources, meaning spending money we don't have borrowing it from china, taking it out of the criminal justice process in order to prevent someone from smoking weed. how dumb is that? john: what is it that made you an advocate? you have a personal story that got you into this issue, right? congressman: first of all, it is philosophical. i believe in limited government and i believe in individual freedom. those people who use those expressions, i don't think many of them have taken it very seriously. i do, and i have my entire life. that is number one. number two, i understand some of the sorrow that is created in people when they say, we are going to arrest someone and try to help them, and that will in some way stop people from using marijuana and be better for them and for the country. it is just not true. we are wasting billions of dollars that could go to prevent rapists and terrorists

and instead it is going to prevent someone from smoking weed. number one, it is a waste of money. that is the number one motive for me because we have to find a way to balance the budget. but also, i can identify with young people. if they get arrested when they are 21, 22 years old smoking a joint and they end up with a felony conviction, now people in the upper middle income and upper income, that doesn't destroy their lives. but in so many places in america, the young people, they get a criminal record because their family cannot afford a big lawyer to get them off. in the long run, a costs so much more. al: congressman, we did a poll at bloomberg and 58% of the people thought that marijuana

would be legal within 20 years. 32% said no. can it continue to be a state-by-state basis, or will the federal government have to step in to legalize it? congressman: i think the best approach is state-by-state because our founding fathers wanted criminal justice and this type of legislation to be done at the state level. but we got way out of whack when the federal government stepped in and decided it would make the decisions for people across the united states as to what the criminal justice divisions would be as regards things like marijuana. if we got out of -- as our liberty and control of limited government got out of whack because the federal government

came in and superseded the state, it can be done with the same way. al: are chris christie and marco rubio making a mistake saying they would not prevented as president? congressman: yes, they are. even most republicans can see what a waste of money that is. 1/3 of our budget is are owed -- is borrowed from china and elsewhere. and you are hurting people by putting them in jail for something like this. he will understand that now. i am from a conservative district and i have not lost one vote. i have probably picked up 10% of the vote from people who would say i am an open minded person. i have a conservative voting record. john: i know rand paul will be out there doing a little fundraising. i want you to make sure to say hello to him and give him some advice on going further than he has on this issue. after the break, we are taking out our beakers and months and burners. we are going on our victory lap sasha eisenberg after these

words. ♪

john: when the going and the politics get tough, sometimes we need to call in the biggest brain in the business. he is part political genius, part saavy journalist, and part mad scientist. this is inside the victory lab with sasha. it is great to have you here again today. you have a brilliant piece you have written we want to deconstruct with you today. it is about the top republican candidates and how they are approaching the data wars of 2015. first, let's talk about scott walker and what the problem is that scott walker is trying to solve with his data operation, the problem he is trying to solve for here as an x.

sasha: it's early in the process. not a lot of transparency. we can start to look at the problems they are trying to answer. in this case, scott walker is focused on the electorate. rand paul is focusing on expanding the electorate. scott walker is focusing on what is already there. the core constituency. individual movement day today and how to model and measure

it. so they know exactly who they're ones and twos are and how to get them to the polls. john: x for him is movement. sasha: at an individual level and not aggregate. someone is going to win iowa with 30,000 people. they want to make sure they have the names of those 30,000 people in iowa are when they have a vote. and also the second-tier candidates could be important. john: but he is not like rand paul, thinking about how to get new caucus are disciplines in and identify new voters. he is looking at the traditional voter. and then marking the movement. sasha: that is right. he knows the republican primary electorate and they will go to work with what they have to, not what they wish they had. john: what is marco rubio solving for? sasha: the rubio campaign is making a big deal about doing this on the cheap.

they seem to have a leaner campaign and fewer staff. they have hired a firm whose specialty is running randomized experiments. but the way they sell itself is basically an auditing firm. they sell themselves that they can hold them accountable. s -- for small staff. they think that randomized experiments can be a way to measure whether it is effective. john: what they are solving for is? sasha: how to spend less money. but better. john: running a leaner, meaner operation. sasha: the least sexy but most widely valuable application of the analytics in the campaign is to cut waste. if you can figure out how to be 20% more efficient with your phone calls or direct mail that is cutting out people that might already be voting for you. many can focus on those who might be for his opponent.

john: like jeb bush. sasha: his big challenge is not necessarily running a campaign on the cheap, but understanding he will have to put a lot more money on television than any other republican in the field. he has so much of it. there will be a scarcity problem in the end. everyone is fighting for the same airtime in des moines or charleston. they want to make sure they are getting the spots they want and that they are buying them efficiently. the equation we have here is english and spanish speaking latinos. when you buy tv, two very different audiences. you want to make sure you are buying airtime complementary.

there is a guy who started a firm and worked for mitt romney and has built his career based on the claim that nielsen ratings are not necessarily the same as political groups. here are the 30,000 you want to reach in iowa. what shows are they watching? rate the shows that way. greg abbott's campaign said they saved $4 billion last year despite -- just by going where they told them to. how to spend millions in the right places. john: before we wrap up, to be clear, what is fascinating about this is that each of these candidates are thinking about using data in totally different ways for totally different purposes. you have one focused on voters and one focused on internal operations, and one focused on

media buying and in the best possible way. sasha: the real question to look at is who you are hiring and what strategic purpose they are solving for your campaign. john: sasha p. eisenberg, the author of this particular victory lap. we will be right back. ♪

john: we have a brilliant piece of by our polling guru on our site about the problem of demographics tomorrow. we will have chris christie. we will live stream it. i will be with al hunt. what will you be looking for? al: is he going to knock anybody in the field? it will be interesting. john: remember we're on it

twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00. from me and albert, i say to you, sayonara. ♪

cory: chaos in the skies, 136 -- 139 seconds after takeoff spacex reels from an expensive incident. ♪ i'm cory johnson in for emily chang. this is "bloomberg west." coming up, iphones that feel like the apple watch. plus, google adding fuel to the fire in a heated antitrust case. and meet the company betting you will use virtual reality to plan your next vacation. an investigation underway af