years after the country stepped up monetary easing for the second time in four days. plenty to discuss as we approach the market open. futures are lower but nothing like yesterday. ftse futures down 42 pints, dax futures down 42 points. let's get to the market open with mark barton. mark: this time yesterday the euro had fallen as much as 1.9%. the biggest decline since january. i have a two day euro-dollar chart. this is yesterday, this is today. yesterday the euro despite being down by 1.9% finished the day higher by 6/10 of 1%. implied one-month volatility yesterday. rose as much as 33%. today it is up by a mere 3%.

the data to watch is german unemployment. we should see a decline for the ninth consecutive month to us that of the day something you already said. the euro has the best quarter against the dollar since the first quarter of 2011. the euro is up by 4% against the dollar in the current quarter. this is the bond market. what a day for the greek bond yield yesterday. biggest increase ever in the greek 10 year yield, rising by 423 basis points. it is flat today we saw money coming out of italy. i similar move to spain. those two bond markets are not moving much today. the money moved into the haven that is the u.k. and the german on market.

yesterday, $1.5 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities. this market remains closed for a second day 1/5 was accounted for by companies within the stock 600. it was experiencing its biggest fall since 2011. it did in the end just sink 2.7% . it was spain, italy and portugal that saw the biggest losses yesterday. germany's decline yesterday was the biggest its 2011 and as you know, the cap 40 dropped. the biggest since 2011. we are down today but nothing like 24 hours ago. jon: the losses stabilize. check out the situation in asia. let's get over to zeb in hong

kong. one-a-day. -- what a day. >> a seesaw day a swinging markets. we started lower on the shanghai composite but today we're finishing close to 6% gains. the chinese market is second in volatility only to greece. the stock market slump we saw yesterday plunging china into a bear market and the authorities took a note acting quickly to try to stem this. can they stabilize it in the long-term? that remains to be seen but just in a past day we had chinese authority stepping in for the market areas they now allow pension funds to buy stock and you have the brokerage association in china calling on investors and fund managers to act to stabilize margin calls. this huge run-up in chinese shares have been funded by margin lending and if those calls come in you have a margin call.

check out what is happening elsewhere in the market. the only declines we're seeing in terms of indices right now are the philippines, thailand and sri lanka. largely a day of gains and optimism that there will be some kind of 11th hour solution even if they do miss the imf payment that somehow with the referendum coming the greeks will vote for a path forward for greece. we know that remains to be seen but one big corporate story we wanted to tell you about today japan up my 6/10 of 1%. sony was down 8% and today announcing plans to raise $3.6 billion by selling stocks and convertible funds. its first share sales since 1989. a big corporate story out of japan and the larger story of greece and the chinese bear market. back to you. jon: fantastic work. the losses stabilize and the dax

open 2/10 of 1% negative. a busy day ahead in terms of data. we will bring you that live with bloomberg tv. bloomberg unemployment data comes through. inflation numbers for the month of june and then at 3:00 p.m., u.s. consumer confidence. the story to watch for the rest of the day is greece. it is deadline day for greece and the government owes 1.5 billion euros to the international monetary fund. if they miss they will be in the same country as developing countries such as sedan honduras and zimbabwe. for more let's bring in our bloomberg team. guy johnson is in athens, paul gordon in frank for. -- frankfurt. guy, it seems like the payment will not be made and the

consequences for the government. guy: 55 minutes until the close of play at the imf headquarters. 1:00 a.m. the time that greece had to make the payment. so they have some big decisions to make. the expectation is that the payment will not be made. in some way that is logical. if there is even the possibility of leaving the eurozone then why would you want to make that payment and deplete your depleted reserves? in terms of consequences, i still think they are quite severe. there is some debate about whether they would technically be in default. from what i'm reading the answer to that is yes. christine lagarde has taken a hard line with greece. she will not bend the rules and will not change history. we have seen a strong and clear line emerging. that would have applications for the ecb and implications for the greek bank and their solvency

and ability to act with liquidity going forward. the implications of the default are really quite severe for greece. so much going on with this story being lost to a certain extent but it is of critical importance the mechanics of what happens here over the next few days. jon: let's talk about the consequences. the imf probably will not call this a default. what will the ecb call it? paul: we don't know what the ecb will call it and they may not have to collect anything. the concern is not whether they will default or not but whether the banks are solvent or not. that is one of the key factors they use in determining if emergency liquidity assistance can be extended.

what it will clearly do is take into account whether greece has missed the payment to the imf what the reaction has been. jon: as far as the eurozone is concerned, some officials want to make this a referendum on the eurozone not a bailout proposal. what has prime minister tsipras been saying? has he remained defiant? guy: he is absolutely remaining defiant and there does seem to be a debate happening about what the referendum is about. angela merkel and jean-claude juncker making it very clear that this is a referendum and in a vote of whether or not they want to remain a member of the eurozone. it was fascinating to hear last night mr. tsipras in the interview taking the opposite line. >> they will not take us out of

the eurozone. the cost is immense. the economic cost and the financial burden, if the eurozone is dismantled because of a country in default, open to the european bank with great amounts, is immense. guy: he is standing behind the no vote and that is the way he wants the greek people to vote and he says that if it happens that will strengthen greece's hand when it returns to the negotiation table. jon: very careful with his choice of words. a theoretical point that can unfortunately no longer be excluded. how significant are those

comments? paul: they are strong words. it has been the case that the ecb wants greece to say and that it can stay. he is saying that greece could go. he also did note that the referendum -- if the referendum should support the creditors proposal he sees room for political solutions coming out of that. he is not ruling it out yet and that does suggest that the ecb might be minded to wait in the referendum until deciding what to do. there are a lot of butts, but that is a possible outcome. jon: let's get the investor take. a global market strategist for jpmorgan in europe. you talk about imf and the consequences of missing the payment. join a club that involves sedan

somalia and zimbabwe. not great for europe occasion to talk about the immediate financial consequences. guest: the question is whether or not ecb will perceive this as default to the imf. but i believe they will wait for the democratic process to take place and the decision is taken at the political level. in the end the only institution that can affect the solvency of greece is the ecb because it keeps the financial institution float at the moment. as long as it will be an active the financial situation will remain solvent. a big question will be what happens next week in the case of a no vote. jon: a lot of focus on the greek government making its payment and how they should make sure that they meet their commitment.

there is a bigger point, a imf -- did a have to take a long hard look at themselves? do they have to admit they made significant mistakes at transferring debt? things have gotten worse and not better. when the imf does not get paid they have to have a long hard look at themselves and the role that they played. guest: definitely. the crisis we face a few years ago captured the emotion and their learning about some things that could be done better in the future. we have to remind that of the things it lamented for several countries as work you look at the situation in portugal and ireland and periphery. it is much more improved. you see unemployment receding.

this medicine can be improved in the future but it is work and that is what we have to remind able today is that everywhere in europe we have to go through this reform process. in the end it pays off and in greece it was already showing a positive sign at the end of 2014 and in six months time we have erased all the benefits. jon: let's get to our world. the markets. yesterday with a move on spanish 10 year up 24 basis points this morning. we sit here and we say that contagion is contained. i go back to that be a yes report that says the unthinkable becomes routine. we see a 20 point move and we say the absolute yield is not in 2012, big deal. is it not a big deal? aren't these things gradual? you will see a 100 point blowout on a day. guest: contagion is contained

first and volatility even with the tough day of the markets yesterday in an environment might expect more after the gain of last week. it is free much contained to the situation we had in 2012. there is a common feeling in the investor community and i meet investors every day and every week and i can assure you that most of them try to differentiate from the greek situation. the fact is the countries have shown fundamental improvement. if you look at two years ago we had almost 27 countries in europe which were in excessive deficit procedure. we see the fundamental picture in europe is much more improved and this is a reason investors

are not so nervous. jon: final question for you, the spanish yield at 10.24%, would you be buying that? guest: i would be interested but most fixed income portfolios we have reduced exposure but for long-term investors this is really interesting. when the dust will settle you can see we expect the spanish 10 year yields on the strength could drop below 100 basis points. jon: he will stay with us in jpmorgan. coming up over the next hour, the chinese jumps up and down. what a change on the shanghai composite and tsipras screwed up . that is what a former board member tells bloomberg tv and deadline is dead. diplomats in vienna say they will not reach a deal on iran tonight but one is insight. ♪

jon: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's get you up to speed on where equities are. shaping up for its second day of losses but nothing like yesterday at 4% roundabout on the dax. we are off by a 68 points. here in london we are lower by about 38 points.

the early market moves in the equity market. top stories here at bloomberg. greece is on course to withholding 1.5 billion euro payment today. the european union rescue programs also formally and there you speaking to a greek television network yesterday prime minister alexis tsipras said the eu won't kick greece out of the eurozone because the cost is immense. diplomats are meeting in vienna to discuss a nuclear deal on iran. they will miss the deadline but see a path to a deal in reach. chinese stocks rallied with the benchmark index posting an intraday swing of more than 10%. the shanghai composite closed up some 5% this morning and the move comes as an industry group called on investors to stabilize the market.

let's bring in richard frost in hong kong. what a day on the shanghai composite. i wake up and look at the move where 5% lower, i get to work and we are 5% higher. what is the story? reporter: what we are seeing is really an $8 trillion penny stock in action. i can barely remember when we had a sub 5% swing on the day. yesterday 10% and today even more than that. the interesting thing today was the most since 1992. what we are seeing now is increasingly a battle between market forces and the inevitable momentum down as the boone market subsides and particularly leveraged stock investors on what the government wants it to do. you mentioned the brokerage

organization, they are talking to fund manages. they were saying to put the market before your own interest. support the market. we know the government can marshall future courses and sure enough, we saw the massive rally through the day. the question is will this be enough to keep the rebound going? jon: that is the big question. we have to about two things. one is volatility and two is may 2007. showing that drop off and then the surge that followed. is it may 2007 and we have to brace for more volatility in the month and year ahead? reporter: if you look at all of the indicators it does look a lot like that period in may 2007 when people thought the rally was over. it then rose another 40%.

all it did was delay the inevitable which was a 80% decline over the following year. we don't know whether that will happen this time around but what we do know is different is the amount of leverage in the market. that wasn't allowed back then and we are starting to see signs of the regulator and the government. they were trying to crack down on leverage in the market and they will ease back on that. they are concerned that cracking down will spark this spiral downwards of never ending margins and forced selling. even if we are going back to 2007, the question is whether this can be what the government has called for. i don't think china has ever seen a slow ball market in its backhistory. jon: richard frost with a quote of the day and $8 trillion penny stock.

vincent, we look at greece, you set for yourself we need to decide whether it matters to the rest of europe. when i look at china i also need to decide if that matters for the rest of the world. what is your view? guest: i think china and its market matter for the world more and more every year. so do we have to be worried? have we gone too far, too quickly? up 100% in a year and still up 130% from the bear market. what matters is the structural story about china and this is quite interesting. before me is the best worlds and greece, china and europe and everywhere in the world. china has a good track record in

reforming its system. a few years ago we had an issue with the shadow banking system and you can see that financial repudiation is a most always confirmed to the normal bank channel so they have been able to tackle the issue. also, the credit bubble had been well addressed through the raising of reserve requirement ratios and you can see now that their currency is no more freely used globally and a lot of people doubted a few years ago about the ability to one day become a reserve currency and we might be near this point as the imf will review during the first quarter and the simple inclusion. is it september or later on? a process already unfolding. china matters but on structural stories from a reformed perspective we see they do what they need to. jon: the other buzz word

globally is monetary policy and monetary easing. it goes to the equity and as we go forward, the question i would be asking for the chinese government is still show -- social stability. can they afford at this point a market crash? reporter: definitely and you see -- jon: you expect more easing? reporter: the monetary policy is still very accommodative and we expect more easing but we also expect more stability of investment. you see that investment is really important in china at the moment. think about the new silk road and doll of these projects. what they take on one hand from the real estate sector which is no longer well-financed for the bank sector. yes obviously the population matters to the greek government

and they need to create a new job every year to everybody happy but when we see it day by day it is what they do so it remains appealing to us. jon: i go back to the chart. as far as you and jpmorgan were concerned, is it back to the top six months later? guest: if you look at the h market which is well exposed to state owned enterprise you can still see a lot of value. you can have pacific exposure to china. jon: he will stay with us. still to come, it is deadline day. we will speak to a greek-based investor and check out these live actors before we had to the break. these are the qs in athens to get to the atm. i am looking at equity markets.

we have session lows. the ftse 100 off quite 50 points. we're back in two minutes. ♪

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jonathan: good morning and welcome back. this is bloomberg television. i'm jonathan ferro right here and the city of london. 30 minutes into the trading day. this is how the day shaping up. as second day of loss. monday we go up, today we go down. we are down by 103 points. the 5100 here in london, where lower by 48 points. europe .72%. game called that -- days come down. bunds yield lower. spreads getting wider once again.

a tie in bond yields the tenure up 2.42%. for basis points, we vanished -- we travel north. mark: the takeover for this company, handles by reporting schedule s-1 is to raise -- citing people familiar with the matter. you will remember last week gave as much as 39% following a takeover from canada's -- 3.9% lower today. the uk's biggest online food retailer. it beat estimates. it is continuing to gross slightly ahead of the online grocery market. it says the outlook for the grocery market remains subdued.

also talks on international partnerships on a detailed level. technologies a 5% high today. the u.k. designer for chips. technology for devices. revenue up by 4%. licensing revenue up by 2%. it's targeting 10% growth in licensing revenue in the next year and arrive at probability. still that loss at 13 million pounds versus 4.4 million pounds. that loss was greater, but still shares rallying. john? jonathan: questions we needed to answer over the last few months. will greece default on its debt? will it stay in the eurozone? here is what -- here is what a few market watches told bloomberg. >> greece represents less than

2/10 of 1% of the global markets. it's hard for me to imagine that this will be a major event for markets. >> like what happened with lehman brothers. we are still waiting for the ripple effect. >> i think tsipras believes that europeans need greece as much as greece need the europeans. it is sadly not the case. >> it is not going to be essential for a long run situation unless it was going to be the general rig up of a major currency, which of course the euro is. i do not think it is going to happen. jonathan: there are some of the top voices here on bloomberg tv. let us get one more voice from athens, guy johnson. guy: thank you very much.

questions are being asked about whether or not long-term viability is going to change as a result of what is going to happen. let us talk to olivia, who is joining us now. you guys especially -- you guys specialize in shipping. it is a big industry here, isn't it. are they worried about what is happening? guests: -- >> we still do business with local banks. we run with a lot of different banks. we manage and we will manage. shipping is an investment which is very international. businesses that have gone with us they do not go with us

because of the greek play. we employ to hundred thousand people. the shipping industry is such a big component of the gdp. shipping companies have dealt with -- in general, it is an international business. we believe we'll be able to make -- guy: is that the concern of those two numbers? olivier: already some of the taxes have been raised on shipping companies. there is always a thin line that you come across. it's an international offshore business. guy: runs through when you're looking through -- run us

through when you're looking through what are the operations that -- from the ancillary stuff , how fixed is that? what is it that runs out of athens? olivier: technical commercial. therefore, a team of people working in a company that could be moved to hong kong germany. guy: you test on this a little bit. does it matter if greece is in the eurozone? -- you touched on this and little bit. does it matter if greece is in the eurozone? olivier: it doesn't matter to us. you know what, most of it is in dollars.

[indiscernible] it matters from the perspective that greece going into [indiscernible] that matters for us. guy: you talked about you employ around 18 here. how difficult is it? how difficult is it to attract smart people? olivier: it is a beautiful country to live in. i moved here about five years ago. it has so much potential. if you want to check the people and talent -- if you want to a tract the people and talent this is a beautiful country that has a lot to offer.

it is a personal choice. some of the businesses, because it is affordable and flexible can attract a lot of people. some businesses like pure financing it is going to be difficult. guy: what are you looking for over the next few days? are you thinking about that narrow timeline? if you watch what is good to happen with the referendum with the lack of knowledge about what could happen beyond that, what is it from your point of view? olivier: it is going to be difficult. it is going to be a foresight. that is what bothers me. you have a team of politicians that have been acting like cowboys. coming in and not taking the

position they should be taking. they are putting the choice in front of the people. you're going to have grandmas going to the polls on sunday being asked as -- asked questions she doesn't have a clue about. i think the effect is going to be enormous. the effect it is going to have on the economy is unknown. this whole exit of the eurozone is very difficult. greece is a tiny drop in the whole world of the global economy. what i am worried about is the contagion. the markets have been reacting fairly modestly. on the economy, which obviously

will have an impact on our business. guy: think you very much for stopping by. -- thank you very much for stopping by. jonathan: mr. johnson, thank you very much. greece is not the only one set to meet its deadline day. before the end of the day, looking increasingly unlikely. we'll bring you the details from the anna. -- details from the anna. manus cranny will be speaking exclusively. that is a conversation you will not want to miss. the dax off by 120 points. we will be back in

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to on the move. 43 minutes past the hour. let us to jump to speed with some of the top stories. greece -- starting at midnight, the country rescue program formally ends. suppress says this tsipras says eu will not kick greece out of the eurozone. -- the shanghai composite closed 5.5%. the move came after they told

investors to stabilize the market. discussing a nuclear deal on iran. a self-imposed deadline. they see a path to a deal within reach. curbing its nuclear program, iran would get released from sanctions. let us get the latest with locksmith -- with locksmith manon. the question i asked softly will be see a deal today? >> that is the million-dollar question. i think we will see a deal, that is looking more likely than not. today is june 30. the iranian foreign minister is only arriving in vienna. it is unlikely they will be able to work out the hundreds of

details that have to be worked out. we are hearing from the united states and european diplomats that they could work these details out within days, if iran is willing to stick with the lines that were drawn back on april 2 when they worked out a political framework for the deal. jonathan: talk to me a little bit by the time and window. it is a process. what is next? would mean things would take place immediately echo -- immediately? indira: i think there are a lot of misconceptions. oil markets and business people may have the wrong idea. whether that -- the wrong idea the minute the deal is signed. more oil will flow from around and suddenly business deals will be happening between tehran and the rest of the world.

that is not true. senses are only going to be lifted once the desk sanctions are only going to lifted, once they can verify that iran has taken a number of curbs. what i hear from diplomats, they are expecting a process that could take six to nine months. when i talk about oil flowing until 2016. jonathan: indira lakshmanan great to have you on the show. ryan, indira talking about the oil market. clearly it is not going to happen overnight. i look at opec production headed north. brian: -- ryan: the point indira was making, citigroup got a note out today saying it could take six months from the moment we get verification that iran is complying with the new deal to

the moment we get the oil sections removed. -- oil sanctions removed. if they agree six months they can come back to the market. six months is how long it would take them to reach adduce barrels for -- to reintroduce barrels for export. if citigroup is correct, but the reality is there is a lot of oil. we get u.s. inventories tomorrow. there followed from a half a billion barrels to 30 million barrels. the expectation is go to fall. there is still a glut of oil in the united states. that is part of the reason we have seen oil go from six you five to 62 dollars -- go from

$65 to $62 over the last few days. those that long positions on oil have been pulling those back and are now at a level they have not been for three months. oil has been in a stable range. it might trend lower, because a lot of oil out there. jonathan: that is your oil wrap. coming up, stay with us for those speakers and market reaction as well. wrapping up to two and looking at the second half of the trading year. joining us after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. this is "on the move." european markets have caught up. now for a second day headed for the worst day for the dax and the dax in 2012 -- since 2012. q2 the bond market quarter. i look to spread different of the u.s. 10 year yield and the german 10 year yield. that spread attracting euro-dollar. driving the equity market. that is the story of q2? 's q3 going to be a reflection? -- is q3 going to be a reflection of that?

>> technical environment. may was the only month where net issues were higher than central bank. you will see today that inflation isn't likely a real problem in european -- in europe and coming months. it will be more challenging for the ecb to find a bond to buy. there will be a drag in yields. this will weigh on the sentiment. we have a central bank intervention in the u.s. which is coming. this divergence between europe and the u.s., we need a strengthening. this might change versus the q2,

the dollar should be stronger here it -- stronger. obviously much higher than they were at the beginning of april. jonathan: q2, the euro best quarterly gain in years. as we going to q3, the euro becomes more of a concern. greece overtakes rate differential? is that direction? vincent: i do not think so. i do not expect greece to be a major issue in the equation. jonathan: the equity story. i look at the u.s. volatility compared to be stocks -- compared to these stocks. our investors, are they missing the trick as we move toward the first rate hike?

vincent: we have studied and published several papers at j.p. morgan. you see it leads to more volatility. it is not dramatic from a market perspective. markets are well-prepared. it should be less important than it was in the past, for the reason, where it hurts corporate profitability -- corporate profitability. you see the leverage in the u.s. is not historically low. 200% at the end of 2007. where are now hovering around 100%. -- we are now hovering around 100%. it should not generate as much damage. jonathan: that is a look ahead to the second half. we get some hot -- we did some

headlines. the euro versus the drachma. they want this to become a referendum about the euro here it -- about the euro. you can see which way this one is you moving. german unemployment data coming out right now. mark barton has in the numbers -- mark barton has the numbers. mark: economists were looking for a drop of 5000. the previous months drop of 6000 has been reduced to 5000. german unemployment has fallen for a ninth consecutive month. companies increasing hiring is a sign of competency. the drop is not as great as many anticipated. the june unemployment figure the rate is 6.4%, which is the lowest since german reunification. the dax -- euro given back

yesterday's losses. what we do yesterday? we rose 6.2%. jonathan: let's get a final word from vincent juvyns. vincent: my last comment i would like to refer it is important for europe to remain together. greece is important building block. it is a vote yes or no to stay within the eurozone. it is a tough process. jonathan: thank you very much. that is it for on the move. the pulse is next. they will be speaking exclusively to ubs chairman axel boehner. they with bloomberg. second day of losses in the equity market.

the dax is up. we want to talk about these markets. i want to put her. good luck with the rest of your day. ♪

>> greece is on is on the hook for 1.5 billion euros. will it make the payment? >> european leaders would not dare though his leaders -- a grexit could no longer be ruled out. >> chinese stocks. the biggest price swings in nearly 7.5 years after the country's central bank steps up monetary easing for the second time. >> prince executives