it is july 1. we are here it bloomberg world headquarters in new york city. you're watching "market makers." matt: i am matt miller that erik schatzker is following developments in greece as they come out minute by minute this morning. the prime minister says he is ready to compromise but there are still sticking points ready to come out. stephanie: we'll talk about all of this and the risks we face with one of my all-time favorite guests. we'll find out why he believes investors should be focused on preventing losses. he is out with a new letter. i know why buffett loves it, i love it, and you will as well. give you the top stories of the morning. greece has offered a new package of budget cuts and other economic reforms. the question is, will this be enough to get them another

bailout? the greek prime minister sent a letter to creditors last night. he says he will accept their proposal as a basis for compromise. there are still sticking points. among the biggies, pensions and tax discounts. germany passes finance minister does not care much for the offer. wolfgang says greece has not provided any basis for talking about serious measures to her the u.s. and cuba are taking another step toward normalizing relations. they will announce today the restoration of diplomatic ties as plans to reopen embassies after a total of 54 years. in the last six months the u.s. has removed cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. it also made it easier for americans to travel to cuba. president obama will be making a statement on the opening at 11:00 a.m. right here today. matt: diplomats have given

themselves another week to reach a deal on nuclear programs. john kerry in vienna, the russian foreign situation is moving in the right direction. the u.s. and other global powers want to prevent iran from nuclear weapons and they would ease economic sanctions. >> it is important because it provides a little extra breathing space. no one is under any illusions or trying to race to that day as sort of, i got to have it by. we could get a deal in two days, three days. we could get a deal on the seventh, or we could get no deal at all. that is always a possibility. matt: u.s. congress remains skeptical of a deal with iran. president obama said he would be willing to walk away if it is a bad deal.

for more than $28 billion in cash and stock's terrorist 70% of shares after the transaction roses. the a's chairman and ceo evan greenberg will run the company. the u.s. women's soccer team made it to the finals of the world cup in canada. second-half goals to get the u.s. a 2-0 win over germany. the u.s. faces england or japan in sunday passes final to the u.s. lost four years ago but i think we will win this time. stephanie: we know they will win. no doubt, brandon was watching the game, cheering them on. i am pretty sure there is only one response to those images. you go, girl. there you go. here's what we will do now. we will get you started with five things you need to know this morning. who better to comment on the

state of the world than our very special guest. howard, welcome. we are about to give you the top five yard what is our first one? it has got to be greece. of course. it is moving closer to breaking the deadlock on the bailout. i mentioned it earlier, sippers has accepted creditor proposals as a basis for compromise. i want to now take you to my partner, your, in athens. i know there is no place you would rather be. >> i'm sorry to be missing you but it is good to be here and at this. it is the best story in the world right now. be careful about jumping to conclusions about what might happen between athens, greece

and european creditors today. it is true that sippers last night sent a counter proposal to the seed be and to the imf. it is also true the concessions he is looking for on the tax and pension fund may ace -- eventually be acceptable. the problem is that so much trust has been eroded through stunts like calling the referendum this weekend, which is still on the calendar. of course, if a deal is reached the referendum may not happen here you have heard hagel's that they now want to see how the greek feel. it will put it back into sippers court to see whether they could marshall in favor of the kind of bailout he now said he is willing to accept. it is a crazy state of affairs and it has been a busy day so far, far from over. much is yet to happen.

the prime minister will address the greek people at some point this afternoon. that is what we understand from greek media. i have got a lot more to bring to you in the hours ahead. stephanie: what do you make of this? howard: it shows the world is unpredictable and in politics, you could get further in the short run by authoring -- offering painful solutions -- painless solution. writing things gradually, the new guy comes in and says, we do not think we should -- it is very unpleasant and we do not like that so why don't we just not pay our debts and continue to live beyond our means. matt: i would put them toward a

yes vote and they have to make a deal. howard: i think you are right but it has got to remain on people's minds. matt: i want to move to number two. leon black including blackstone capitalizing on record stock market dumping -- two years ago he said he is exiting everything not nailed down. stephanie: the contemporary art market where he is taking it all up it what you make of this? howard: we have to raise money invested wealth, and harvest. cell. thank you for helping me clarify. it cannot be a good time for all of those at the same time. it is like cylinders of a car. some go down.

it is sometimes better to buy and sometimes better to sell. the challenge today is to make good investments that will not kill us if things get worse. stephanie: if luminaries like leon black, or you say this is time to sell, who would say it is time to buy? howard cohen people who think they are smarter but also people who have to put money to work. with interest rates solo -- so low people look to alternatives like private equity and want to put money to work. there are still people who have stuff to do. people chasing concerns. right now, i want to get to julie hyman. julie: a big insurance deal much bigger than the brokerage

business. the company announced it is buying choke for over $28 billion. it will be in cash and stock. reflexive at 30% they son yesterday passes close. job ensures property for wealthy individuals here that is one of its specialty markets. evan greenberg, the ceo, will be ahead of the combined company. the ceos is in the process of stopping it down. seeing some commentary this morning that this will be a powerhouse in the insurance industry. from what i could tell this is the largest u.s. insurance deal. >> howard, are you surprised to see so much m&a this year? howard: companies are piling up cash and doing well. they do not want to expand facilities.

so they have to do stuff and be activists. very few people say, our companies in the great shape and we will leave it this way. they have to do stuff. stephanie: number four, david einhorn may be spending his week at the world championship of poker, but the main hedge fund is having a little bit of a stumble and fell over 4% in june. i am not even going to give this much time or attention. when we talk about risk reward there was someone i would not necessarily bet against, and it is david i'm more in. matt: let me gets number five the first day in deutsche bank as co-ceo, signaling plans to cut back on the trading empire

built by his red assessor. in a letter to employees, he said the bank employees and derivatives trading businesses cannot continue to soak up capital. ouch. stephanie: this is so interesting. it is specifically what was built. early 2000's, what field the bank all of the credit, it has never been a place to have extraordinary investment bank capabilities. they will be a culture changer. we just saw the head of sales leave earlier this week. it will be a big change. what does it mean for the bank and message? universal bank all names, it is not what john is saying. matt: i think it means you should look for another job. stephanie: possibly. mark has a message for investors busy chasing returns risk

control. he is underlining and highlighting it. seven at commission points after it. we will explain that. stay with us. ♪

matt: adp numbers are just out. vonnie: payrolls created payrolls created in june , more than forecast. 230 7000 is the number coming in from adp. we were looking for 218,000, so that is better than forecast. because we got a great job forecast in may. 237 thousand private payrolls created in june. matt: a reminder, we are expecting -- they're pretty much for sure going to come out tomorrow rather than friday. friday is an important holiday

for us. vonnie: we are looking for 230,000 jobs created in terms of private -- for the 80 p. stephanie: we're back now with howard cochairman which manages 103rd -- $100 billion. his latest client memo is titled risk revisited again. you have given us the master classic before come one of my favorites. for the most part, the letter you put out is essentially the same we had seen before but you really highlighted some to our investors not listening? this is all about risk management. >> hopefully, knowledge is chemo live, so hopefully you will know what you know today.

i added a little more to some past memos. stephanie: i want to read it slow. the more risk we take because we believe the environment is low risk in character, the less the environment continues to be low risk and character. walk us through. >> it was a quote from peter bernstein. the behavior of investors changes the investment environment. that is why i put so much emphasis on being aware of what is going on the -- around us behaviorally. the riskiest thing in the world is to believe there is no risk. you still do risky things in the world becomes risky. matt: it is key to realize what everyone around you is doing. if you see everyone else's not taking risk maybe that is a good time for you to do it. the problem here is everyone

takes risks at the same time. stephanie: why are you telling this to us again? do you feel that across the board, investors are taking too much risk and ignoring geopolitical issues around the world? >> market response to those p or are not ignoring geopolitical risk. i do not think we have great fundamental risk in this country. what they are ignoring is the risk that comes from prices being high. prices for assets are elevated. when they are, you have to be careful in terms of what you hold. the other thing is that when you are -- when people are eager to invest, they bid for securities by weakening the terms.

we can get done now that cannot get done in what buffett called a prudent or a skeptical environment. stephanie: do you think we are facing 2007 all over again? >> no, not in amount. you can do things today in the market if you are an issuer or a seller that you could not do in 2008, 2009 and 2010. appetites are up but it is not as dad as it was in 2007 and 2008. there is no analog to the mortgage backed securities and the subprime. matt: nothing should be that bad again. you do point out we see the unexpected more often than we expect to see it. i wonder where you think we are now. two years ago, leung black pointed out valuations were

frothy. on the other hand, we will have a guest on at 9:30 today he says s&p is not really overvalued. >> i think that assets are on the high side of fair or higher. there are no bargain spirit of the you could buy today for less than what it is worth. if you say s&p is not so that, i do not want to buy things that are not so bad. matt: david yesterday was saying all of these problems in europe are devaluing companies like siemens, kind of a bargain right now because it is a global company. stephanie: where in europe? it feels like investors have said, we are in europe and we have got 18 there we are leading for banks to the lever but no one did. >> it has picked up from the trickle of two or three years ago.

there are banks selling portfolios of loans. we have been on the blindside us some of them won auctions get out of hand. we are buying loans and businesses and even starting as mrs.. stephanie: are hedge funds in a tufts not? you are saying, focus on risk reduction at a time when investors say i do not want to pay. what happens to someone out there raising money? >> not easy. look at the returns of hedge funds, they has averaged five per year. i will leave you without one. stephanie: not necessarily. if you are racing to get returns, what do you do? >> sometimes prudence is the best thing to do.

stephanie: howard, thank you so much. ♪

julie: welcome back and it is time now for futures in focus. euro futures falling for a second day it one-month low with mounting tensions over greece pushed the currency toward parity. $.95 per dollar in one year passes time. joining me now chief market strategist. thank you so much for joining us. after we heard do not fight the

fed so much here in the united states, is it time for, do not fight the ecb? is that the philosophy here? >> the general knowledge would have been that as the greek situation the year of city euro fall, started to feel again reality whenever they came in in the u.s., you saw an initial panic in the euro u.s. dollar. then he saw a massive rally. i do not necessarily agree with this. every time they near a deal, you see a weakness in the u.s. dollar and strength at the idea greece may actually exit the euro. the overall case for a stronger euro and the sterling as well was very weak over the medium to long term.

julie: greece's -- a factor? clubs it greece remains of a euro, which, this morning, seems to be the case, it could change tomorrow, if they exit, there are difficulties just in general with some of the contagion. i think we all believe italy, spain, and portugal, i am probably in the 75 percentile where i do not have enough information on that with any sort of duration to it. without knowing if there could be a contagion, whether percentages are low or high, the risk is there and it makes me shrink any positions i have. julie: what is your target and how are you playing it? >> my target is 104. i cannot see any reason -- the

u.s. dollar in short order one of four would be my ultimate target where i would consider a rebound. it is doable and i have called for parity in the past. in a years time, that is really a panic and really a big move. you get to the mythical parity level before anything happens by the fed, it in turn kind of handcuffs the fed. i think if you move that fast, it is the only thing that contention -- could potentially handcuff janet yellen. julie: talking euro as so many people have in recent days going down. matt? matt: time now for our top stories greece is ready to compromise now but the rest of the eurozone not on board yet. telik creditors he is now willing to accept their latest proposal. it does have a few sticking points.

discount to the greek islands. that may be enough to derail the deal the fact that they waited this long and pushed a referendum to do it. the door remains open, but he says the latest offer is not a basis for serious the negotiation's. they kind of want to see the referendum go through as well. just a few minutes ago on the labor market adp says private employers added 237,000 workers more than expected, plus adp revised up slightly. tomorrow, the government comes out with a june jobs report earlier than usual because of the fourth of july holiday weekend. stephanie: a big takeover in the insurance business this morning. we mentioned it is kind of an understatement. i would say jen or miss. known for ensuring mega yet's and mansions.

more than $28 billion in cash and stocks, the combined company , chairman and ceo evan greenberg. frank rule has been wearing some of those kicks for quite some time. taking direct aim at what they consider their biggest rival. today, the sports shoe company launches the biggest advertising campaign in the 190 year history of new balance has been known for its run shoes. now wants to become them all to -- become a multisports brand. mark parker has been ceo since -- is expected to be chairman sometime the next year. it is an interesting move for new balance, a privately held company those who are new balance enthusiasts, they buy it

over and over again. if you decide to get in bed and compete with a guy like nike new balance, rockport, they have chosen their niche and it works for them. it really makes sense. or should they stay in their lane? matt: i thought it was a specific regional. stephanie: customer decided to swim in the deep end. i am not sure it will be successful. mark parker getting the idea he would move his way up is not a big surprise. matt: under armour, which made underwear, it is now a big play a in the supermarket.

stephanie: jordan spieth, just yesterday, named the first african-american principal barrel -- ballerina and one would say, i am sorry. misty copeland? matt: a guy who is a ballerina? stephanie: it is a female. people would say, i sorry, a ballerina or a brand like that? that ad campaign one -- won the number one award. they expanded it and really became a global player. new balance has been around a lot longer than under armour. maybe it is new balance looking at under armour saying, now they are eating my lunch. matt: i am just saying trains can come true. breaking auto sales now.

finally a little bit late here. auto sales are rising 8.2% pure the estimate was for a gain of 9.9%. not quite needing the game but still a massive game but a massive biggest of the big three gains every month. it is because of incredible sales. ram trucks help they not only the bottom line. we expect numbers out of afford and general motors in the next hour and a half or so. stick with us for more coming out on the auto sales kick. stephanie: okey-dokey. it is day three. we will take you live to athens for a closer look. who is on the ground? my partner, erik schatzker. ♪

stephanie: welcome back. kind to take you to europe.

greece's capital controls are still in effect or today, pensioners wind up at the bank for their weekly $134 withdrawal. erik is back with us live in athens. does the mood of the greek people change at all since monday? it seems as though you were saying it was and year required? like people were holding their breath? erik: you are beginning to see the patients wear thin on greece . mostly, the pensioners you referred to just second ago many of them do not have debt -- debit cards. they cannot go to the cash machine every day and get their 60 euros, 66 or $67 depending on the exchange rate. they have been given one opportunity a week to go to the bank for a limited time, lineup and we are talking about people

in their 60's and 70's and take out slightly north of $130 per you could understand why these people are getting frustrated. protests are starting to break out spontaneously. small protests but it gives you the sense the temperature in the town is beginning to rise. demonstrations we saw yesterday and the day before, before and against regarding the government and the bailout, those were organized. the thousands of people here in front of parliament were supposed to be there. protests we're seeing breakout they lost patience. matt: has alexis tsipras overplayed his hand here? it seems like he thought he could get a no vote. the polls are about an net. but they tend more towards a yes vote. people realize should they not

seal a deal. erik: i am asking the very same question. we expect the first to deliver and adjust to the nation at some point this afternoon. it will probably be a taped a dress. he will not be taking questions from reporters and it will not the kind of things we saw monday night where the sippers was full of her brought out and making statements that were hard to support with the facts about the negotiations with european creditors and the posture of people, the german finance minister. nobody would accuse him of being the most empathetic person in the world any probably put the situation in the best possible terms today by saying great people are the ones suffering the most. it does seem as though sippers may have overplayed his hand and the chances of mourning that

referendum this weekend are going to erode. stephanie: i know i keep taking you back to the streets, we talk about the pensioners lining up to get $134. when you are walking down the street, are people not in the coffee shop and not buying newspapers? give us a sense, we see people looking angry, but what is it actually like live? erik: it is still much more normal than you might be inclined to assume they are there are people sitting in coffee shops and jake espressos. there are people sitting in bars, enjoying the sunshine chicken beer in the afternoon. there are not a lot of people employed in the country so they have time to junk beer. people are going to the supermarket. i watched by a table full of books, bookselling for 10 euros a piece. there is no reason a guy would have books out if he did not

think you could sell any. keep in mind in cash and people only 60 euros. it is continuing as normal. it is the people who have the least working in operating under the tightest margins, already beginning to feel the pressure. matt: you said a lot of people had the foresight to take their money out of a greek bank and put it somewhere else. had those people put their money into the hsbc across the street, are they facing capital controls of the foreign banks as well, or is it only the greek banks that have capital controls? erik: it is the entire banking system here. they stuffed it underneath their mattress or shoebox, or they make it little hole underneath the tiles in the floor and stuff

the cash in there. that is what has been going on. stephanie: my god. crazy. under a wood plank on your floor? that is where i hide mix tapes my high school boy friend made me. matt: your husband is watching the show. stephanie: maybe he should make me mix tapes. don't you remember mix takes -- mix tapes? matt: yes. your own personal jesus. we will take a quick break. friday payrolls numbers coming out on thursday. some say it might guarantee a rate hike in september. that might not be the case. up next, why a good number might be bad. stephanie: tell us songs you would put on a mix tape that you

would send to "market makers." matt miller 1973. ♪

stephanie: still ahead, we will take you live to the ideas conference where betty liu will sit down with ceo mark weinberger to talk about the global economy the jobs market, and a whole lot more. i am guessing maybe mountain biking and fine dining. that will be 9:30 a.m. eastern. you do not want to miss it. matt: i think of dumb and dumber. stephanie: such a good movie. matt: in about 24 hours, the labor department releases the june's job report. we arty know 80 p numbers 270,000 jobs last month. not a perfect predictor. economists are looking for just about that much.

senior economist rich is looking for a lot more. you are looking for about 320,000 jobs. he joins us now, very bullish. stephanie: turning it out. hello. matt: i like it. >> i wish i could say the same thing for you, matt. matt: i tried to whip my best erik schatzker sued for today. let's get back to jobs numbers. by du expect such a big jobs number and then why do you think that does not mean an automatic rate hike? >> telling us in many conference calls that hiring is picking up. we are taking on more workers. we see that today in the 237,000 private payrolls.

this is the time of year when we see restaurants, hotel accommodations, but large numbers of jobs. what happens is, what if we do get a strong number 280. what happens to the dollar, the dollar rises. in addition, the dollar is advancing rather than europe. something goes down, finally, we get an even stronger dollar and that is for the fed. ultimately -- matt: they have this implicit

promise they will do that. stephanie: what is janet yellen's job? is it to focus on the u.s. economy, which is doing well especially by comparison to the rest of the world, or is it their job to listen to say, look at us, we are suffering, do not go raising rates? >> it is with respect to the financial system, not the u.s. economy. to the extent there is an issue with greece finances going out and melding into the financial system and take that to a meltdown or something. stephanie: it tells me the focus continues to be, look at how bad it is a brought it how about the unintended concert of zero interest rates and the negative effects? no one talks about that? >> it is not a simple choice. there is also a problem of wages

. wage pressure, wage pressure. matt: rich has his own version of the fed page book, the bloomberg orange book. it is not an actual book. >> yes it is. you can get it on the bloomberg terminal. stephanie: if you do not subscribe to the bloomberg -- less just break it down. you can have the beige book. matt: thanks very much for joining us. rich there was his orange book. stephanie: university of miami

orange, turquoise? >> you're thinking the university of texas. i gave a presentation there once and a student said, you should change it to the burnt orange book. stephanie: orange, beige? matt: i do not know why anyone would choose beige. stephanie: we will be back. matt: we will take a break right now. ♪

stephanie: welcome back to "market makers". i am stephanie ruhle with my partner, matt miller. the euro, it is in the red for the second straight day as the

greek drama reaches a fever pitch. goldman sachs is making quite a call on currency this morning. >> not just parity. that is what goldman sachs is talking about $.95 per euro is what we're talking about. take a look. it includes the -- what you might expect reinforce the u.s. outperformance versus the euro zone.

reiterating this $.95 call they had previously made as you heard earlier. continue to go lower if you look at the relative performance and relative positioning of the u.s. versus the euro zone at this point in time. an interesting call out we have been watching. i also want to talk about an initiation already goldman sachs. a whole host of different restaurants being mentioned here. a neutral cheesecake factory mentioned here. the company's's exposure to higher income consumers is a bad thing, gives us less to recover buffalo wild wings is a new by asset company. we're also looking at brinker as a new by. -- buy.

first is the s&p. we have definitely seen outperformance. ♪

>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. stephanie: you're watching the second half hour of market makers. matt: i am matt miller in for erik schatzker, reporting on the ground in greece from athens. we will check in with him in just a moment there first, a look at top stories. stephanie: in my ear, our executive visser is reviewing the topics i might not be able to handle words. she just gave me the world -- the word greece. greece is taking compromise in order to get more financial aid. germany wants to hear more than

just talks. the greek prime minister says he will accept the latest offer from creditors and has got some sticking points on taxes and pensions. germany's finance ministers said the greece author -- also said it is not clear if it would really hold the referendum next sunday. the vice chairman said greece did not get what they bargained for. call for it is chaotic now and a sad thing is for the great people, where they can only take 60 euros, 25% unemployment, this government created much more problems. >> about one third of banks did reopen today. it has been more than half a century. this is amazing, since the u.s.

and cuban embassies have been in one another's countries. it is about to change today. history today, these two companies will announce plans to reopen after a total of 54 years. u.s. removed from a list of state sponsors terrorism. it easier for americans to travel from cuba. president obama will make a statement later this morning prayer you can watch it here at 11:00 a.m. eastern. you do not want to miss that. for those of you who have not yet, go to bloomberg.com, some extraordinary reporting there. matt: it is amazing, absolutely. june auto sales are starting to roll out this morning. fiat chris posted its 63rd monthly sales game.

consecutive. sales rose more than 8% last month. less than what we were looking for, buyers were snapping up pickup trucks and jeep sport-utility vehicles. also just out, nissan sales up 13.3%, better than the estimate 11.8%. you will know i am fascinated by a lot of this stuff that nissan is doing. a massive deal in the insurance business today, buying for more than $20 billion in cash and stock. 70% of shares. evan g. greenberg will run the company and he may reinstate my insurance. stephanie: if they are canceling you -- >> to may traffic violations. stephanie: earlier today --

tiger dog informed me they in fact are my insurer. my question is do i have a megayacht or a mention that i do not know about? or is the tiger dog vacationing with a whole situation i am not aware of? they are on a mega-ayotte and i am on the jersey shore. moving on, the greek prime minister signaled he is ready to end his standoff with creditors. he said he is ready to accept proposals as a basis for compromise. angela merkel is refusing to engage with leaders until after july 5. creditors demands for budget cuts. hans nichols joins us now with the latest. i want to step back a moment. those of us are only looking at the headlines, you see sippers sitting there with 11 bound books behind him saying they are ready for a compromise, what is

the agreed to? when i look at it, it just sounds like a nice big announcement saying we are making change. he is saying, nothing is changing. >> as long as he has caveats, it is not really real or you have to look at the fine print. matt: did we lose him? it looks like we lost him. stephanie: he was saying something so smart. matt: can i take a moment, a german pronunciation moment for you and tom keene and everyone who thinks a porsche is not a porsche, it is -- stephanie: i am not from germany. it is like when my sister says mozzarella that i hate that. matt: that is because there is

an american way to say mozzarella. hans? we are not getting hans back. we will take a quick break, we will come back, and we will ask cons if there is a strategy or if anyone this everything he was plenty of doing has backfired and he decided to crawl back and try to cancel a referendum. stephanie: you note i mean with a mozzarella? crazy. ♪

matt: we have revived hans nichols from berlin. why don't we get back to what you are saying about german chancellor under him or go's comments and the latest take on the strategy. hans: communication is

difficult. what we had here captures the greece to athens to berlin committee cases difference. athens starts talking and berlin is confused on what they heard. you hero -- over and over again. regardless the next tony for hours with the next 40 hours a minute to weeks -- two weeks, it will be passed in athens a caretaker government, it will have to be passed here in berlin. it goes out of town on friday, so this could drag on a lot longer and you know as well as i do you do not want to stand between a german and their beach vacation. stephanie: german in there. matt: i love -- do you think alexis tsipras has gone too far?

he called this referendum beating his chest. he will want to cancel it and call back to make a deal. germans are say not so fast. we would like to the referendum as well. hans: germans cannot force them to hold the referendum. he created his own currency by calling it the referendum. if he does not like the value of it, or if he does not like the way it is to -- going, the first poll came from the newspaper. if the polls look like it will pass come -- pass, sippers can always pull it and say, we'll continue negotiations with european partners, and there are enough europeans that say, do not hold the referendum that will give him cover. he can always pull it back and say, ok, i am back at the negotiating table. he is campaigning against the proposal and then tuesday night he sent a letter saying ok, i

basically except the proposal with a few caveats. matt: thank you very much for that. stephanie: let me take you now to greece where erik schatzker is an act ends with a special guest before we get to that, we're talking greece in germany. happy canada day, brother. erik: thank you so much. it would be nice to be there but it is better to be in athens. i've got to tell you. i am here with one of the parties in parliament. he ran in january. he does run the banking and finance committee. i think we have to look forward. there is a lot happening today. there is a new counter offer on the table. let's forget about that for a moment and look forward to sunday. given what the polls are showing, what will happen? >> i think it has a clear

momentum right now. i do not think it is behind anymore. they started way back and covered all the distance within two days. what we know is the prime minister come it has collapsed in the past two days. in front of banks trying to withdrawal 60 euros. it is not very good publicity. my prediction would be it would be a landslide on sunday. erik: what is going on in the minds of the people who see alexis tsipras striking a very confident pose? someone say slightly delirious pose, concerns about his remarks, and then to find out this morning he made a counter proposal last night. how are they supposed to interpret that? >> as confused as anybody else.

when reality hits your atm, things change. people are willing to to leave what he set up until now. when banks close and they saw a reality hit them in the head they realize -- everybody knows this is a communications boy. he is trying to actually get back and say, can you please refuse me one more time so i can blame the germans? one more time so i can blame everything to the foreigners? erik: is it a trick or a sincere offer? >> i do not think it is a sincere offer. i do not see how they can run a campaign. he is planning the referendum.

he is to go back to the parliament. reverse the law and vote no for this. this is -- i am surprised he has survived that long. erik: we are due to hear from the prime minister at any time this afternoon, perhaps this evening. what will he say? >> my predation is he will be as defiant as ever. i am not a fly in his room. i would love to be a fly in his room, but i do not think -- against the creditors. erik: if you were among madame lagarde or in a position in europe to make a decision to evaluate what it is separate is is saying and doing, what should be going to your mind? >> the greek people are going through a huge hardship right

now. i think in their minds should be the greek people and not the greek government. this government does not represent the people anymore. erik: are they being too tough with their demands? >> there is a certain lack of credibility on this point pairs government said many times, many things, and delivered nothing. erik: thank you very much. matt, i know you have breaking news back in new york. matt: great interview they're out of athens. great to get the take of someone on the ground. i want to give you a ford auto sales coming out, which were up because of strong demand for suv's, for the mustang, for the edge, for the explorer but i'm seeing a headline which could be disturbing to some that the fc or he is sales were down 8.9%. ford spent a lot of money to

convert its factory to be able to build the all-new aluminum f series truck. they have got a lot pinned on this. looks like f series sales were down we need to figure out exactly why that is because we have gotten assurances from the chairman of the company that they were back up to full production here. it could be that they choose -- just do not have enough inventory to sell as many. it could be the customers want them and cannot get hands on them. it is deftly not great for the profitability if the most profitable product is 10%. stephanie: right there is why you want to watch. erik schatzker gives you the real deal in greece and there is no one better in the world of business talking autos, then this motor man to my right. we will take a break.

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>> welcome back. breaking news. shareholders are coming together. voted in favor of the transactions emerging across. it is fully in agreement now and that will go ahead. back to matt and market makers. stephanie: i love macaroni and heinz ketchup. matt: those are both delicious. stephanie: we have got to move on. doctors and teaching hospitals in the nice dates received about $6.5 billion from drug and medical device makers in 2014. government data yesterday showed

the money link between companies and health care providers describing their products. matt: you think they are greasing the wheels with the money? stephanie: all i'm saying is data came back. true armstrong, -- drew armstrong. drew: we had a son's -- sunshine law that said, you are drug company, but you're also a big sales organization. this is the first year we have ever had a full first year of data for everything last year. close to 10 million different lines of records on this. we have got a data team in san francisco on this. you have about 2.5 billion dollars worth of payments paying for dinners, the clock

that sits in your doctors. matt: mainly this is money to send to dr. so they continue to describe viagra. >> you pay him to give a speech in hawaii. matt: obviously they do this. lack stone will stop doing this here why would you stop? drew: the idea was we would not pay doctors for this stuff anymore. it has not been working out great for them, but they did spend $50 million on it last year. ghana greece the wheels. stephanie: -- got to greeasase the wheels. ♪

stephanie: welcome back. we are a few minutes away from the opening bell in the u.s. and here are your 1, 2, three things you need to be looking at today in terms of markets.

anchor of a new show, "what did i miss" at 4:00 p.m. plus, we're joined by director at fidelity investments. >> i am sure you have been talking about the main greece headlines this morning. i wanted to mix it up. stephanie: did we cover greece today? >> we have the latest look at their manufacturing sector. i was curious to see the extent to which the ongoing crisis would hurt the economy. it fell again. the greek economy had been looking pretty good. it was growing but it was clearly on the mend late last year continual downtrend ever since the elections. this was before the intense stuff happened throughout the week. i am sure next month will be

worse. matt: the whole situation to me seems like they have actual -- absolutely blown it. >> the latest polls already suggest the yes versus the know is going toward 67% instead of 50-50. some of his members of parliament are already starting to flee. i think it is back firing and he eventually will have to go back to the negotiating table. he has threatened to lose his government if the votes go ahead and there is a yes. i could be a fatal blow. it was a bad move. do you think greece would have moved the ball substantially forward had it not in for this question mark -- this? if they had not won and they

continued on their path, we had what i will admit our conservative economists saying they have pulled the country back. they were on the road and they failed. >> i think we are going in the right direction. i also think it is true the economy is still utterly dismal and that people are right to be upset about how bad things were. stephanie: is it syriza? >> i am not sure. matt: with the stock known as the shanghai composite continues to move wildly. yesterday, it was down 5% in the morning and up 5% in the afternoon. today, it was up 1% earlier and down 5%. an extraordinary move.

bloomberg reported there are now more shareholders and more people investing in stocks in china than members of the communist party. a great indication of how much a cultural phenomenon it is. there are questions about the sustainability of the economy and the markets are clearly up for discussion. the obsession with the market is extraordinary. jurrien: china is all about liquidity. we had the big stimulus, than went into property, then into wealth management and chatter loans -- shadow loans. it's all this money trying to find a home. that's why we are seeing these big moves. matt: there is a massive myth with general motors car sales. auto sales were down 3%. we were expecting a gain of 3%. at ford we see lighter truck

sales than we expected. truck sales fell at ford. down 8.9%. it's a big drop. stephanie: including minivans and suvs? matt: even compact, midsized suvs. >> i want to do one more hit on greece because people talk about how greece is contained, what happens in greece stays in greece. this morning, germany had its first five-year bond auction. no one showed up to bid. some companies have delayed their offerings of bonds due to market volatility. it's the systemic contagion you worry about in a financial sector bankruptcy but the idea that it's purely contained to greece that there is no spillover effect elsewhere, not really true. matt: we have had some time to

get ready. a good three years. jurrien: this will not be the lehman moment. the greece today is not the greased three years ago. most of the debt owned by greece at the time was held by european banks. now, is the ecb and the imf. most is held in public hands. with quantitative easing going on in europe, that should bring the contagion to a peripheral spread. there will be volatility and some effects -- the yield has risen dramatically. generally greece is far more content and far less systemic and you see it already in the u.s. markets. yesterday, up in the pre-open this morning. these are air pockets of volatility that will pass for most investors. stephanie: thank you, joe

weisenthal. you can watch joe's new show at 4:00 p.m. eastern. yesterday, i said 5:30. the show re-airs at 5:30 p.m. if you like it at 4:00, you will love it at 5:30. i wasn't wrong. let's take you to see what stocks are doing on the move. julie hyman joins us with a look. julie: we have overall rising once again. i want to get to the big deal in the insurance industry. ace buying the company for $28.3 billion in cash and stock and values chubb at 124.13. it doesn't seem as though

traders and investors are pretty happy about this deal, saying it creates an insurance powerhouse. adding more commercial insurance, insurance for wealthy individuals to ensure things like yachts. it seems to be a good business for both companies. this is the trend alex deal has been hammering lately. something relatively new here. let's take a look at constellation brands. there is doing well. shares up 3% after the company's earnings come also raising its forecast for the year. the company says the beer volume growth issue will be in the mid to high single digits. this afternoon sales were up 11% year-over-year. the past quarter, due to volume growth. people are drinking more beer. let's get to auto sales. ford is trading higher, even

after the sales missed estimates. the app series sales down 8.9%. -- f series sales down 8.9%. average transaction prices on the f series actually rose. they don't talk about the sales of the f series in the text, you have to look at the table. as for general motors looking at the breakdown for gm which saw sales fall 3%. gmc sales up 8%. buick down 18%, cadillac down 3.1%. a lot of it's different sub brands seeing some trouble, except for gmc. matt: the fleet sales, a big drop. going back to constellation -- i

drink a lot of beer at the grateful dead. constellation has corona modelo pacifico tsingtao. not these huge brands. stephanie: we have to move on because i'm not going to wait -- what is your beer of choice? jurrien: i'm not much of a beer drinker. stephanie: give us an idea -- we talked greece and china. what are the catalysts, the points you are focused on that will really create volatility or change the marketplace? jurrien: we are seeing it now with the greek exit likely -- unlikely before the referendum. nobody wants it. the greek population doesn't want it. it's less unlikely today than it was a week ago. it still won't happen.

once they do come back and cooler heads prevail because i don't think anybody wants blood on their hands -- they will come back and make a deal. that will be a catalyst for the market to resume its uptrend. the s&p has been sideways for a number of months, but's all caps of already broken out. the underlying trend is positive. what's happening in china is a sideshow for most he was -- most u.s. investors. matt: a view that a lot of people shared. a lot of people would take issue with the s&p being at par or undervalued here at 19 times earnings. how do you get to that valuation of 19 being ok? jurrien: i don't agree with that at all. i speak to a lot of audiences and investors in people have low expectations. i don't see the froth from an

anecdotal point of you. -- point of view. historically, the averages 15 and the range is 10-20. by that metric, we are at the high end of the range. if you look at it from a discounted earnings perspective you discounted by the discount rate that's where the low interest rate environment really kicks in. if you have only 3% earnings growth, below what we've seen in the past five years and you discount it at 6% interest rate for me and my models come on getting fair value of 19, 20 21. this is where the market belongs given the interest rate and earnings environment we have. matt: do you see the fed raising rates if we get a good jobs number? jurrien: i think the fed -- i would like to see the fed raise rates sooner than later.

and then to take a slow track. the early and shallow is a better track than waiting to long and having to catch up. whether they go in september or december is irrelevant. the fed has the option to raise rates. it's how quickly they go after the first one and where they will end up that's really what matters and nobody knows the answer. matt: thank you so much for joining us. global macro director at fidelity investments. stephanie: what kind of beer to you like? matt: i only drink pale ales and i pas lately. stephanie: we want to leave you with some images out of greece. the finance ministry just hung a poster outside the building

citing "no austerity." follow matt and i on twitter. syriza. matt: syriza. stephanie: don't throw stones. we will be back in just a moment. stick with us. you are watching "market makers ." ♪

stephanie: look at those green markets. i like to see that. we will take you to the green mountain aspen, colorado. a meeting of the minds as business leaders gather at the festival in colorado. betty liu is live in aspen

with mike hornberger -- mike weinberger. betty: surrounded by a lot of green. mike weinberger is joining me. great to see you. there's a lot of ideas being changed and a lot of discussion -- i heard some last night discussions about what's going on in greece. it seems so serene here, but boy, are there political hotspots in other parts of the world. what is your sense of how that might hit business confidence? >> another one of those uncertainty factors out there all over the place. the real question on greece and puerto rico is everyone wonders whether it will have a contagion effect. greece and puerto rico the economic effects are not huge other than the populations to

both of those places. if it signals a broader feeling of other countries having problems, that's where it starts to get obligated. -- complicated. is there another state right behind it? betty: the you get that sense? let's say greece and the middle east. do you get a sense that this might be the year that it turns for us here? mark: the difference is not the euro crumbling. it's whether we have a short-term market effect. the political aspects of greece leaving the euro, what does that mean for the next country that has a problem? i don't think the sovereign debt is the contagion with the greek debt. you were not worrying about a

falling out effect. betty: how about a dampening effect on m&a? mark: it's booming because of companies trend to find growth and cost containment. it will affect valuations certainly in the short-term. we do something called the capital confidence barometer where we go out and survey a lot of different company's around the world. we are at a five-year high for interest in doing deals. companies are looking to do deals. betty: do you think you will still be at high six months from now? mark: i think we will. it's a search for growth which will still be there. tremendous movement towards disruption try to get business models like cable and telephone together. those issues will still be there. the confidence is there with regard to trying to find new opportunities for growth.

betty: your head of the tech policy committee. you are lobbying for tax reform. you have not been successful. no corporate tax reform. mark: it will be tough, i would admit. i was in treasury. it's a difficult time. we will see some real tax activity come fall because the highway trust fund is going broke. both political parties want to extend that. we have a real issue with two $2 trillion sitting there. they're trying to marry up a bunch of proposals that will provide for international reforms. they call for lower tax rate. and funding the highway trust fund. we will see how that breaks.

betty: in the fall of this year. you think the trade deal is a good sign for what you want to do? are: it's a great point. it's a canary in the coal mine. at least they've shown that they can come together and do something. it took a lot longer than they hope. the transpacific partnership will come first and then they will try to tax. if the tax provisions are not extended -- >> who do you think among the candidates so far will be most friendly to business? >> they're are just beginning to put their platforms together. i like all the candidates. >> spoken like a true ceo. put all your pets and everyone. -- bets at everyone. great to see you this morning. thank you.

mark weinberger. stephanie: thank you, lucky you betty liu. doesn't look that nice there. matt: it does look amazing. stephanie: thank you, mark and betty. we will look at some other amazing things right now because it's time to look at the morning's most compelling photos. matt: picture this. nasa's solar dynamic observatory captured this for our time lapse footage of interruption on the side of the sun. -- an eruption on the side of the sun. a giant cloud of solar material traveling through space. stephanie: that is supercool. you know what i think it is? out of this world. i will give you to the other picture because i absolutely love this one. team usa is heading to the world cup finals.

carly lloyd and kelli o'hara scored a second-half goals to give the u.s. a 2-0 win over germany. they will face either england or japan in this sunday's final. they lost to japan in the championship four years ago. i will revel in the glory and the win last night. look at that. know what she just said? "yeah!" we have to take a break. boom! check that out. ♪

matt: we have received june sales numbers for gm nissan, fiat chrysler and others this morning. here's true car president -- the first thing i want to ask about before we get to the individual numbers, the average sales

prices. some companies put out disappointing figures as far as unit sales but are getting more money for each transaction and you are seeing that at true car as well. john: we are. june will be an amazing month from a revenue standpoint, for sure. 40 billion topline for the industry, which is fantastic. 17.4 million for the month is pretty good. matt: that's great, actually. i'm looking at individual company numbers like gm with sales down 3%. that's a problem. i'm not exactly sure where that comes from. fleet sales are down 20%. car companies have been cutting back on fleet sales for years now. they are trying to wean themselves off of this dependency they had back in the high days. john: you have to hand it to gm. the could have done a typical fleet month, but this month, they took their fleet down 45%.

they had a really good month from a retail standpoint. that's what really matters. your retail sales to customers. stephanie: how did low gasoline prices affect the overall fuel economy? in the past 10 years, the explosion of suvs one would think this would be a good time for them. john: a study going on the crossovers that automakers are putting out which are replacing the old-fashioned sport-utility vehicles, they are really quite fuel-efficient. that's why we see the compact sport-utility vehicle segments and the new subcompact segment those are flying off dealers lots. they are doing really, really well. we will see the biggest segment in the industry will not be

midsized cars or contact cars it will be compact crossover. consumers are really showing their interest in this new segment. matt: we have some breaking news on puerto rico. stephanie: i have to share this headline. the four heard $50 million -- $450 million bond payment has been made. creditors agreed to extend to december 15. can kicking down the road. the beat goes on. ♪

stephanie: good morning, everybody. matt: welcome to the bloomberg market day. europe is playing let's make a deal. greece says it's willing to make new concessions to its creditors.

for now i'm angela merkel says no. >> there's worry that consumers may be turning away from unhealthy packaged foods. matt: we have the ceo of tgi friday's with us. how much pressure is he under to serve healthier fare to his consumers? >> good morning, everybody. i'm olivia sterns. stephanie: we have breaking economic news. we are getting data on manufacturing and construction. mike: those betting on the u.s. economy are winning today. the numbers come in better-than-expected for the month