i will get to that in just a moment, ahead of the open futures are higher. dax futures are higher, 35 points north. mark: one day of gains for the euro. the euro is of -- of -- it is all about jobs this morning. employers probably added 200,000 jobs for the 15th and 16th month. 233,000 jobs is expected. keep an eye on hourly earnings in may, on a yearly basis we had a increase of 2.3%, the most since august 2013. expect an increase of 2.3% on the end.

fed funds futures show that there is a 36% chance of a rate hike in september, a 73% chance by december. there is the euro against the dollar today, this is what is happening in the bond market greek bond yields fell yesterday, they are falling again today by 14.98%. u.s. deals are rising. don't forget, u.s. treasuries had their worst quarter in the second quarter cents the second quarter of 2013. german bond yields fell yesterday. one was notable of this five-year note option. german bond deals up. spanish yields rising today

after falling yesterday. let's have a look at what is happening to european stocks. we are minutes into thursday's session, both greece and creditors seem in movable -- in movable. we have a stoxx 600 rising by 1.5% as greece seemed willing to accept some of the demands from creditors. keep an eye on the dax today, no opening price today as of yet. we know it slumped 8.5% last quarter, we know it was one of the worst performing markets. in the last two months, investors are buying on weakness. tax swings has jumped 70% from that low in january -- february.

jonathan: let's head out to asia where the shanghai conference it -- composite has fallen. david: it keeps giving. we were down over 5% yesterday it is three and a half percent we just closed on it 3912. to shed light, there was a adjusting note what they have noticed is over the past couple of weeks a pattern has emerged after 2:00 p.m., he said you could see this on the two day chart with a have noticed is a lot of these traders have actually gone to the futures

market to hedge against risk. it shows hits of some of these margin calls selling pressure because of the unmet margin calls, it actually pushed a lot of the unleavened ridge traders to actually start setting -- the selling as well and walk in those gains before the close. bigger picture, let me show you a year to date chart. hsbc was on our show a few days back, with a have observed, a lot of this margin debt buildup leading to this rally right here was actually built during april. this. here. -- this part here. a lot of those positions are levered up if we see falls

those traders need to liquidate those positions to meet those requirements. that is why you understand the security regulator coming up with new measures to hopefully smoothing out this process of falling. they are saying more leniency please. those that do not have sufficient collateral do not force them to liquidate positions. in other words, market first, business later. a lot of this is rumors. asked -- act rationally and do not believe some rumors. at this point, no one knows what is will go. -- where this will go.

jonathan: thank you very much. we will bring you more on the $8 trillion penny stock, the shanghai cop as it -- positive -- composite. a survey for 125 k was a mess on jobless claims in spain. sweden central bank has a interest rate decision in 24 minutes, we will bring you that live. the european central bank publishes its minutes from its june 3 meeting. then, one hour later, it is jobs day. let's get to the store that will not go away, greece. three days until the referendum.

the bailout has expired. chancellor merkel is saying no more negotiations until after the referendum our team has been busy. guy is in athens, hans is in berlin. alexis tsipras is not backing down from the call we were thinking if a deal was imminent it's not really now. what is the story? guy: i think he is trying to figure out which way he can take this. i think he is trying to explore all of the angles. fundamentally we have a guy who want to pursue this referendum he wants to preserve his political career to a certain extent. the message is clear you, the greek people need to vote no on

this. no, no, no. there are divisions we understand within the party maybe some are saying the referendum should be called off. so much going on it is hard to get a read on which direction we are traveling. alexis tsipras is clear, he wants the people to vote no. jonathan: if you look at what the ecb is doing, are they sitting tight, what is the story? paul: probably let the politicians have their say. the whole point about ecb keeping haircuts and collateral unchanged even after greece missed a payment adjusts ok,

the banks can keep going until july 5, let's see what comes out. the question is whether the banks can hang on. we have seen signs of banks running out of money. jonathan: hands -- hans, what is happening to the creditor positions and politics as far as berlin? hans: the creditors seem to be hardening. some are saying that alexis tsipras is only increasing the suffering of the people of greece. we also heard from the french prime minister who says it is difficult to make an agreement with someone who keeps saying no. but i suspect in the next 48 hours leading into this referendum is more european leaders making a clear stark

what the consequences of a no vote would be. the consequences of a no vote would be that it is difficult to have an agreement, by agreement i mean additional funding, access to ecb funds if there is a no vote. you heard that yesterday, it is increasing this morning. as far as negotiations, the finance group was unanimous there would be no negotiations until the referendum. jonathan: from a politics of berlin, when you look at the economic reality, the tragedy that is russians pensions, close to banks, are they starting to feed into the polls now? guy: i think so. they are starting to feed into the economics as well. let's start with polling, we will get a lot over the next 24 hours. yes 43%.

this is over 1000 eligible voters. no votes, 43.2%. they asked another question this is actually very important do you believe that greece should remain in the eurozone no matter what the sacrifice? 74% of those polled said yes they want to remain in the eurozone. what are the greek people voting on? that is the question we still do not have an answer to. they're asking the greek people located questions about debt restructuring and economics of that, which are very hard for you and i to understand. this is coming out of the exporters association, they are trying to run numbers, they think it will cost 80 million per week.

they think there will be a shortage of goods imported over the next few weeks. they think exports will drop 7% imports will drop 28%. that is critical when you think about what is greece importing. you also have to think about the greek population and their ability to feed themselves, and put petrol in their cars. jonathan: the bloomberg team across europe, thank you very much. let's get the investors take. stewart's -- stuart, you look at the market, fine. you see a move in bonds that have bounced around and i looking at contagion contained or the fact that we think there will be a deal?

i look at a survey, guess what greece will not exit, i look at the next survey, guess what, there is going to be a deal. is that driving the market right now? >> it is one of those things we look at getting a deal, and we just do not get it. we know the ecb will be pumping money and, we know the authorities will do the best they can to talk a good story and try to smooth the way. as an investor what do you do? cash earns you nothing. the market thinks the central bank has their backs. if we get a bad outcome, what is the downside? not too much.

what has happened with the u.s. economy and the fed? what has happened with china? there are other big macro issues that will take over as soon as we get over the weekend. jonathan: we will do china after the break, as i look at the dax yesterday up 100 points, the letter is released that prime minister tsipras supposedly caving into some of the bailout terms you get us 100 point rally again on the dax the bias is clearly to buy. what is the story? >> it is back to the ecb policy. currently they are doing qe. they are looking to accelerate the qe the summer. i think if they see stress coming into the market because of the greek situation, they

will accelerate further. everyone is saying as long as there is some really -- resolution, the ecb will be there. be nearer to a resolution, the bigger the rally. it is a strange market. jonathan: so we say the ecb will mop up the mess, the ecb was in the market buying $60 billion in bonds in april, may, june, it was the worst record on bonds sometimes other things matter. despite the fact that the ecb is in the market, why is everyone safe with the idea that the ecb will buy more bounds -- bonds? >> we have to realize where the dax came from. we have given back to percent --

10% it looks more like a correction then they start to something more serious. we look at the general path until march look at the bond market, rising bond yields if the qe is working. if bonds are rising by 10 basis points, people will look at that and say that is ok. people are painting a glossy picture not necessarily our view. jonathan: we will talk about that bond stock correlation later on. coming up, shanghai swings again. we will head to hong kong for the latest on china possible

volatile stock market. and someone who says greek can handle the situation. all of that plus the look ahead. it is a thursday, we are back in two good morning.

jonathan: good morning, here are bloomberg's top stories.

a poll shows that voters are inclined to accept deeper cuts prime minister tsipras is urging voters to vote no. the u.s. and jobs report is later. they added 233,000 jobs in the month of june. u.s. markets are closed tomorrow. china's shanghai composite levels have fallen. the benchmark index dropped 3.5% at the close. let's get the latest on china from richard frost in hong kong. richard, what is remarkable about today's moves it -- it follows government support, the question is whether the

government and officials have started to lose control of the equity market. richard: that banks this -- to question if they ever had control? the composition is continuing to fall. what will worry investors is people have been telling us that 4000 below the composite was a line that the government had drawn in the sand. the market fell below that level despite remarkable moves in the most heavily weighted stocks on the index. government funds had tried to buy into these, the fact that they allowed investors to use collateral to buy shares has not helped the market.

this back to question what more can the government do? and will those measures help to support the market? jonathan: the gambling shifted from the casinos in macau to the casinos to the shanghai composite. the casinos in macau, what is the story? richard: it could be that macau is finally coming in from the cold after being frozen out by the chinese government who was determined to crack down on the illicit gambling not in the casinos, but there is a lot of money being funneled through their. they crackdown on be says -- abuses -- they created huge rallies, more than 10%.

if you compare them against how much they have fallen since 2013, it is still a marginal rebound. casino revenue we saw plunge and another 35% or so last month. they took it back to levels last seen in 2010. there is a little bit of hope. maybe the stock investors in china that saw the stock market as heaven, maybe they will start heading back to the roulette table. jonathan: richard frost, the man with the hardest job trying to keep up with the shanghai composite, thank you. let's welcome back stuart richardson. i asked if the officials lost control of the equity market typically is not a question to asked, but it feels like that was the story of the last month.

you cut rates, you try to boost measures to get people to come back in a do not, how dangerous is that? >> to us it is incredibly dangerous. it is now the final bursting point the bubble. no doubt it was actually a bubble. the problem with the chinese authorities is the have a lot to control. they have an anticorruption drive still going on they have been trying to pump money in banks what they do not need is something they have less time to give to, the stock market. so far what they are doing is not working.

when authorities shut -- throw this much in the market and it goes down, it shows that fear and people are losing money. i would expect rallies to be muted. jonathan: the crucial question from people here in london a lot of domestic investors with their cash in china, what does this mean to me? does it mean anything for me going forward? and the fed, forget greece when you look at china, what are they watching? >> in the big macro story china is more important. but we have seen for years with china is they are exporting to the west although the has held

their currency steady for a long time if they are going to do something to recognize higher nonperforming loans and the deflationary impact in china will be increasing. do they try to depreciate their currency, that will be another deflationary possibility. that would be difficult for the west to cope with. jonathan: you have 10 seconds risk off for chinese markets does that become risk offer other markets? >> probably. jonathan: stewart will stay with us. coming up we are told the eurozone can handle any greek scenario. plus, live in athens where we speak to the former greek finance minister.

we will do that after the break. we will break down the markets as well, back in two. ♪

jonathan: good morning, and welcome back to "on the move. " the dax up by 17 points this morning. big action in sweden, forget the equity markets, let's go to mark barton. mark: the swedish central bank has cut rates to -.35%. that is a shocker because the median viewpoints of the analysts that we surveyed said the rate stayed unchained -- unchanged.

the cut is -.35%, that is a surprise, the government has extended its bond buying program. it is buying government bonds to the tune of 45 billion swedish krona. policymakers set up their flight in april against inflation by buying 40 billion krone to 50 billion krone, adding to the 40 billion of purchases since february. the central bank has announced they will buy a further 45 billion swedish krona off of government bonds. it is a bit of a surprise. the strengthening of the krone too many was a bit of a wild card ahead of today's rate decision. the bank has taken these unprecedented steps to avoid this strengthening of the krone

against the euro. it pushes money into the krone from the euro. we have had an unexpected pickup in inflation in may that has provided some relief to policymakers battling price growth since 2012. big news, see cpi was cut. it has cut its rates and increased bond purchasing. big news from the central bank of sweden. jonathan: you see the central bank of sweden playing out. we go 8/10 of 1% higher. i go to the wci us of function look at the fx market look at

the swedish krona down against almost everything. it is down against the krone the euro, the danish currency the u.s. dollar, the canadian dollar, the british pound, the japanese yen, and the aussie getting spanked across the board. of course all of this plays into the wider europe story, the reaction to the ecb. let's get back to greece. guy johnson is standing by with yanis varoufakis's predisaster -- that assessor. guy: plenty to come today. i have the previous finance minister with me. we had a an economy that had currency controls, give us the

situation, how do you see the greek economy? >> is on the verge of collapsing. nothing is moving people do not drive because they are afraid they will not have money to buy gas. payments has stopped. exporters cannot buy intermediate foods. people cannot pay workers. it feels of this we are in the middle of august when greece and europe shows -- shut down. essentially we have shut down. we are expecting a resolution sunday. guy: do you think the banks will open tuesday? >> there will be problems. only the ecb gives more money through the ela banks can open. i am hopeful eventually they will sometime next week.

that is in the case of a yes vote. guy: we are starting with a blank piece of paper if we get a yes vote. why should the ecb increase ela? >> i understand the ecb is in a difficult political situation, but i think the political problem will be resolved by sunday. the people have voted, greece ought to vote on a program. i think it can provide funding. it is our central bank. they cannot strangle the economy. guy: do you think the greek banks are solvent? >> they are liquid. somehow these two words have blurred.

if your liquidity needs are more than half of your loans have a problem. greek banks to have a problem -- do have a problem. in the case of a yes vote eventually they will overcome it. guy: the questions asked to the greek people are complicated. you have to have at least an economics degree to understand some. it is a fair question to asked the population when the outcome can be deterred. >> i think it is a fake referendum, the vote of the greek people has been hijacked. the reason i say this is we are asked to say yes or no on the proposition of the -- lenders. there is no proposition on the table. we know the greek position does

not differ much from the lenders. the greeks offer with the signature of the prime minister's the measures worth 8 million euros. i hear the lenders were asking 8.5. what is the difference? mind you i would like to say this government actually brought itself to a trap. six months ago when i negotiated the same closure of the review i had offered less than a billion of measures, the eu group was fine with that. they came out loud and clear and he said greece has done a lot more than required to close this review and a lot more than any other program -- country. the imf and ecb sided with them, but decided they did not fill

the structural benchmarks. guy: is it actually to understand black-and-white figures, numbers is there a gap between the numbers, or is there a trust gap? >> before i answer your question, i think there is a trust gap. in the numbers there is a gap. the reason is because during the six months, the new government wrote the economy into a new recession. this was self-induced. they did not realize the economy needed the 7.2 billion cash. they delayed and procrastinated hoping for something that never happened. they only really negotiated in the last month. they lost four months for sure. the gap created is because of the economy.

the europeans were flexible. they already gave them a lower target for the primary surplus. the target now is 1% for 2015 2% for 2016, and 3% for 2017. we had higher targets back then the debt was sustainable back then. back then we were beginning a big take off the economy. they destroyed it. they were trapped. now, instead of making a >> decision and biting the bullet they are throwing the ball and -- trying to hide behind a fake vote. guy: he asked one final question about the debt. you bring up sustainability, i read mr. varoufakis's 6.5 of

them should that be part of the agreement? >> yes. the previous government had actually offered certain propositions. i think what ought to be done is first, fixed interest rate -- fix interest rates. they should have to borrow on behalf of greece. it may cost more, it is important you grab the opportunity today that globally rates are low, and fix your future payment. number two, it can be done, it will not cost much to the lenders and other europeans, we can pass it to other european parliaments, extend maturities.

essentially you reduce the present value of debt without claiming a haircut on the face by. -- value. a haircut on the face value is a no no. no citizen in their right mind would allow the greeks to pay them less. extending the loans is easier. it can pass i think. the other details can be done. you can always do various swaps. that is all secondary. you can have options like characteristics on the debt. the interest rate could be linked to the growth rate of the economy. all of those are ideas that have floated around for a long time. i have proposed in the coalition government of 2012 to actually

tied the size of the primary surplus to the growth rate of the economy. back in the lenders do not want to do it. they were afraid of looking too soft, eventually they didn't. -- they did it. the lenders side has shown sucks ability. -- has shown flexibility. it is time for the greeks to start living reality and realizing we are part of europe. we not only have demands, we have obligations. guy: thank you very much. the former finance minister here in greece. jonathan: thank you very much. there are the thoughts of the former greek finance minister.

take a listen to this. >> what ever the scenario is, at the end of the day, the eurozone can handle the sent -- a situation in terms of the structure of the banks, the exposure to the greek economy is different. what is important is greek -- greece is small, but the problem is complex. jonathan: those are the thoughts of the ceo. you can watch greece and crisis, special report on sunday, july 5 with coverage continuing until monday. still to come, it is jobs thursday in the usa. we will give you a preview after the break. before we go, sweden, in a surprise rate cut the swedish currency taking a little bit of a beaten -- beating.

a rate cut in sweden check out this, they cut rates, by more bonds of a country with a real gdp growth of 2.5%. we will be talking about this and more after the break. we'll be back in two. ♪

jonathan: good morning and

welcome back to "on the move." we are about 47 minutes into the trading session. the tax hit a session high of -- .25%. the jobs report has come out of the nine states -- united states. >> all of the data suggests that labor market continued for june. there is upside risk this month yesterday upon reports suggested stronger hiring at american factories. as hiring growth, unemployment is forecast to fall. the number that draws the most scrutiny is wages. another relatively strong gain is forecast, although it will not boost the annual rate. we do have two more job reports

but given the uncertainty about how many rate moves we may see the strong report may prove to bring indigestion. jonathan: let's bring in stuart richardson. you hear about good reports and bad reports if we hear about a bad report, that does not tell me there is a lot of conviction about a september hike. >> it is clearly less than 50-50. what will be key is in the months ahead owns -- the inflation. the base affect will pick up in the second half of the year.

when you have strong employment and a rising trend in inflation those are the key criteria for the feds move. assuming that continues people have to get used to rates going up, they should go up. the economy is doing ok. jonathan: wages of big part of inflation, there is another point, it is the market. you worry about a back and yields, what does that mean for the fed if we get a q3 that looks like you to -- q2? >> the one thing which will prevent the fed from moving would be a sharp correction in the equity market. the technicals are deteriorating , we will bounce back as the greek headlines come back.

it will appear the opportunity for the market to move lower is there, if it happens, the fed will go to december. the key is not necessarily the data in the economy but in the equity markets. jonathan: can i go to bonds? is that deep risking, or is it going to cash? >> it bond yields go up because the economy is doing well if the equity market goes down, i think these risk portfolios have to sell bonds as well. if you're a long investor the safest places cash. if you do something different volatility is cheap in u.s. equities something in equity

bonds is where you need to be. jonathan weil -- jonathan: jobs guesses? >> it is the wage data that is important. jonathan: thank you very much. coming up after the break, a communication ploy? that is what one guest says tsipras is after. plus we will check in with the markets after that surprise rate moves in sweden. back after this short break. ♪

>> with alexis tsipras comments, he was trying to reengage, i think they are tired of him. >> everyone knows this is a communication ploy. can you please refuse me one more time so i can blame the germans? >> there has not been this kind of a crisis. >> i don't think today the sovereign that is a contagion with the greek debt. i don't think it is is the give a deal as it was a couple of years ago. >> a gives janet yellen and they

said more reason to delay the long anticipated liftoff. jonathan: greece dominating the conversation. let's wrap up the first hour of trading. the governor said there was no floor for the rates in sweden, it does not look like there is great mark: the swedish bank cuts -- cut rates today. they cut rates to a negative point 35% -- -.35%. we went to zero at the end of last year. they increased their bond buying program to 45 billion swedish krona. have a look at how the euro responded.

this is one of the reasons sweden is cutting rates, the euro has been rising against the swedish krona it has been falling should i say. the rate cut has had the desired effect the krone is falling. jonathan: keep it right here on bloomberg tv. the all-important u.s. jobs report is out later. economists expecting employers to add 233,000 jobs. what can greece learn from ireland? tune into "the pulse." stay with bloomberg tv. in the meantime, follow me on twitter. a busy day ahead. stocks here in london, just

turning into negative territory. good luck for the rest of your day. ♪

francine: just say no. tsipras urges greece to vote his way. manus: jobs day in the usa. the world's largest economy is expected to add more than 200,000 jobs for the 15th time in 16 months, building the case for a fed rate hike. francine: facebook is said to offer video and revenue splits a move that puts them in direct competition with youtube. welcome to "the pulse"