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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  July 2, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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francine: just say no. tsipras urges greece to vote his way. manus: jobs day in the usa. the world's largest economy is expected to add more than 200,000 jobs for the 15th time in 16 months, building the case for a fed rate hike. francine: facebook is said to offer video and revenue splits a move that puts them in direct competition with youtube. welcome to "the pulse" live from
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bloomberg in london. i'm francine lacqua. manus: and i'm manus cranny. greece's creditors have reiterated that they will only consider the country's request for a new bailout package after sunday's referendum. francine: yesterday, the greek prime minister used a television address to urge his president to vote -- urge his country to vote no. the central bank indicated it would maintain support. manus: for more, let's get straight to erik schatzker in athens. hans nichols in berlin. erik, let's get straight to you. this television address was essentially tsipras doubling down on the situation, saying vote no. erik: manus, i think that is a correct characterization. both sides, as you said, have hardened their position. on one hand, eurozone finance
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ministers have said there is no ground for further conversations. here on the ground in greece, tsipras has the last word. he's the prime minister and he did go on television yesterday to tell people why they should vote no. here's an excerpt of what he had to say. >> on the other hand, a no vote is not just a slogan. no is a decisive step towards an agreement that we aim to sign after sunday's result. it consists of the people's clear mandate on how they want to live. it doesn't mean clashing with europe, but returning to a europe with values. it means strong pressure for a viable agreement that will solve the debt, not undermine our agreement to restore the greek economy. no means strong pressure for a socially fair agreement that will equally divide the burden to the ones that have the means, not the people depending on salaries and pensions. erik: manus francine, that
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statement reflects this view held by tsipras and his fellow syriza party members that it is ok to vote no because they will be in a stronger bargaining position come monday. how that's going to be the case is not entirely clear. they believe that the desire on the part of merkel and other politicians in europe to keep greece inside the eurozone is so strong that they will be forced back to the table. yanis varoufakis, the finance minister, had a blog posting overnight in which he reiterates his reasons for voting no. they include that the europeans put us in this position to begin with, that the debt restructuring is necessary, that the whole thing has been about blackmail, that the deposits and pensions are safe -- that is a huge question mark. we will have to see today if that is persuasive or not.
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francine: fighting talk once again from mr. tsipras. what do the polls tell us? they seem to be too close to call. erik: it is still too close to call, francine. both the yes side and the no side are polling in the 40's. the most recent poll from euro today shows the yes, yes to a bailout, yesterday eurozone, polling at about 47%, and no polling at about 43%. those numbers were reversed yesterday. however, it is worth pointing out that 74% of those polled by euro today say it is worth staying inside the eurozone at all cost. how do you reconcile that with only 47% for yes? not entirely clear. sunday is an awfully long -- it is awfully far away.
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if you think about the amount of campaigning that has yet to be done by the government and the forces on the yes. that is what we will be covering today on bloomberg television. manus: thank you very much. let's cross over to hans nichols. the creditors have reacted. dijsselbloem's comments, i read the statement. they sympathize with the greeks. interesting. guy: -- hans: dijsselbloem has made some comments, indicating that they are going to increase pressure on greece. dijsselbloem is saying the eu loans, they will reserve the right to review those and they could accelerate those loans meaning accelerate the repayment. that is from dijsselbloem a moment ago. it gives you a sense of the kind of pressure europe can put directly on the greek people let them know the consequences of a no vote. that's what i expect we will be
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hearing today. we heard from mr. sapin the french finance minister, who has been very sympathetic to the greek side. he struck a harsh note. he said, we searched for an accord up until now. he, meaning the greeks, said no. we can't discuss with someone who's said no. we have even harsher comments questioning the trustworthiness of the greek negotiating partners from wolfgang schaeuble. he is basically accusing them of lying. he said, the greek government is not doing its people any favors at all if it keeps making completely false statements. the goal what you are starting to see emerge from the creditors, is that 47% that wants to stay in the euro, they need to convince them that this referendum is about a vote to stay in the euro. it is much bigger. if they can turn this into a
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cause about staying in the euro they may have a better chance of having tsipras' line defeated. francine: it does seem that the eurogroup is stepping up a little bit of pressure. hans: if the next step for the ela would to the to change the rules on collateral, that would trigger more of a catastrophe inside the greek banking system than it already is. i'm not sure the ecb wants to own that politically. they've kept the ela cap at 89 billion. as it stands, money is draining out of the greek banks. admittedly at a slow rate because they have capital controls. the question then, we will get better reporting on this later today, how much longer do the greek banks have to survive?
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24 hours, 48 hours? will we see a collapse of the banks he for sunday? back to you. francine: ponds and goes berlin, erik schatzker in athens. manus: one of europe's largest banks is optimistic the eurozone can withstand any outcome from the greek situation. the socgen ceo spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> whatever the scenario is, the eurozone can handle the scenario. in terms of the structure of the banks, the exposure to greece and greek economies is totally different. greece is actually small but it is true that the problem is complex. francine: for more on greece, we are joined by a chief investment strategist. michael, great to have you on the program. no negotiations, and they are
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kind of throwing mud at each other. it seems there are false statements from the creditors' point of view, of what the greek governor is trying to persuade the people of greece to do. >> the situation has become incredibly complex and confused. i think the greek government is not sure what time of day it is. i don't mean disrespect by saying that, but it does make it difficult for the electorate to decide how they are going to vote on sunday. the wording of it is quite complicated. i'm not surprised that angela merkel and wolfgang schaeuble decided to say, wait until the referendum and then move forward on that. i think the eu is in a very difficult position. they've got to walk a very fine line between how they settle up with greece, if they do, and then not causing resentment in other countries, particularly spain, portugal, and italy,
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where the electorate may feel that greece is getting a soft deal, and they feel their government should be tougher as well. perhaps i could just add that on a historical note, if anyone is not familiar as to how greece got in this position, they should read michael lewis' book "boomerang" which shows you how greece managed to massage its numbers to get into the eurozone. francine: we know what the past -- >> i will be up front. it has been shifting. we may well not necessarily get a yes vote. there will still be negotiations. manus: as erik said, there is a long way to run. there were new offers, counteroffers, minor changes. take us through sunday night. the greek people are being told,
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double down, say no. tsipras says, this will embolden our position. will it? >> i'm not sure. the government pressure now is so intense. this is why tsipras was flip loving yesterday. if there is a yes vote, he is going to be having a more difficult position. manus: ultimately, if there was a new election -- >> you would think so. that raises bigger questions about the role of the eu. is it there to instigate regime change? the greeks are in a terrible position. a lot of it, they inherited through no fault of their own. it is a question of how you go forward. you have to make sure what they bring in covers what is going out. francine: what does it mean for investment? the markets have been very sanguine. if we have a no vote on sunday
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it seems very difficult that we do not get some kind of bail in for the banks. is it going to put more pressure on financial markets? how do you position yourself? >> focus on contagion and the implications for banking around the world, not just europe. compared to two or three years ago, the situation seems more robust. we have seen comments from the bank of england, showing how they are positioning themselves. greece has become a small player in the world scene. we can feel a little more confident that the greek situation can be dealt with. francine: michael, thank you so much. we will be talking a little bit about those u.s. jobs and what the fed will do next. manus: and we will bring you live and continuous coverage of sunday's greek referendum right here on bloomberg. you can watch "greece in crisis congo a special report -- "greece in crisis," a
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special report. coverage continues. francine: here's a look at what else is on our radar. shyness -- china's shanghai composite has fallen below 4000. traders are continuing to unwind positions. the benchmark index slumped 3.5% at the close. manus: facebook is showing advertising revenue with companies that post videos on its social network. it is a step towards lowering more content away from sites like youtube. facebook will offer contributors 55% of revenue from ads that appear alongside videos. video viewing has exploded on facebook in the past year and now generates more than 4 billion views a day. francine: investigators say a faulty connector sending
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inaccurate information and pilots mistakenly shutting down the wrong engine led to the trans-asia airways plane crash in february. 43 people died when the flight lost altitude, clipping an elevated highway, and crashed into a nearby river. manus: the u.s. jobs report is out a little bit later today. economists are forecasting 233,000 jobs in june. the data comes before extended independence day weekend. make sure you keep it right here on bloomberg. we will bring you those numbers live at 8:30 a.m. new york time. francine: that brings us to today's twitter question. the fed versus greece. which is more important for the markets today? manus: we will have more on this after the break. stay tuned. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. manus: the jobs report, yes it is that day. it is a day earlier than normal. economists are forecasting a positive result. speculation of an interest rate hike. let's find out what is going to impact these markets.
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mark: we should have more than 200,000 jobs added to the u.s. economy for the 15th time in 16 months. 233,000 is the number expected today. this is backing the case for a rate hike possibly as soon as september. the monthly average for this year get in here, is 217,000. this is a jobs chart 2009-2015. the monthly average this year 217,000. that is because of that figure. that was 119,000 in the march report. still we are above 200,000 for the year. last year, the record was 260,000. as you said, the jobless rate could fall to 5.4% after rising to 5.5% in may. 5.4%, manus and francine, would
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match the lowest since 2008. this chart is possibly the most important subcomponent of today's jobs report. it is the average hourly earnings. get in there. 2013-2015. this is the remaining weak spot of the job market rebound. in may, average hourly earnings rose 2.3% from a year ago. that was the most since august 2013. and they've been pretty much stuck in a narrow raise. there's 2%. average hourly earnings year on year have been stuck at this to present level since the expansion began. other gauges have been pointing to faster wage growth. expect a 0.2% gain on the month 2.3% rise on the year. don't forget, janet yellen
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described wage growth as relatively subdued. that is the most important subcomponent. should be a cracker. 233,000. it is jobs thursday. francine: let's discuss that further with michael franklin. thank you so much for sticking around. what do you look at? what do you think is most important to the markets? is it the jobs report and what the fed will do, or is it these vague greek polls about how they vote in the referendum? >> i think with wall street closed tomorrow, markets will switch off of it. until the referendum result is known, no one is going to commit heavily. i'm looking for a rally in the markets in the next week or so. whether it is prompted by news out of greece is unclear. the situation with the u.s. data, we are in a flip-flop situation.
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the markets may expect rates to start sooner. a bit like the greek situation. the story has been going on a long time. we are getting to a point where it changes are going to come. manus: often, we are reminded you are all obsessed with when we go first. stop worrying about the first move. mohamed el-erian said it will be the loosest tightening. do you share that view? >> i wouldn't argue with that at all. i think that's right. i think if you go back to 1994, you saw what happened, interest rates were relatively benign and then the it was quite a sharp jump initially. the bond market fell in the heat. they will be looking to avoid that. where we are at risk is if the fed moves at the wrong time. if they do it too soon, they are going to slow economic activity
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and undo the work they've achieved by keeping rates low. they are in a tight spot. francine: should it even be this year? i understand it is a gradual but a lot of markets may be taken by surprise. >> it is going to be term and by the fed and all of that. manus: if we look at the point that mark just spoke about, the metric that the fed uses, the last spot where there's a bit of vagueness is about wages. the economy is coming back. it was a tough earth quarter. when you look at america, does it remain intact, or would a rate hike threatened that surging growth? >> it is picking up well. the recovery is underway. it is a question for the fed to decide, when inflation starts to become an issue.
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that is not likely to be a problem for a while yet. as long as the markets perceive that rates go up at some point, which is consistent with the way the economy is moving, i don't think we need to worry much. francine: do we need to worry about china? >> where i'm worried about china, i've lived in hong kong and seen china up close, people get drawn into those markets. people who should be nowhere near those markets get drawn into them. you've got property companies, banks lending to them, suddenly you get a big selloff. some of these people start to come out of the woodwork and they are in bigger trouble than they should be. that's not to say the government can deal with that but that is where my concern is. i think the market is going to consolidate, rally a bit, and then fall lower again. the chinese economy is quite difficult to interpret. you've got to appreciate that
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the shanghai composite is not necessarily reflecting what's going on in the economy either. it is a bit of an issue that the government has to deal with. manus: do you think that we get more action from the bank of china? we have had rate cut area we have had a whole raft of measures. none of which is supporting the equity markets at the moment. >> there are things you can't always be sure of. i think where the bank has to be careful is not to do so much that you start to think they are panicking and throwing everything at it. they need to just rain in a little bit and let the market find its level. francine: michael, thank you so much for now. manus: there's one stock story moving in the markets. electrolux has fallen by nearly 10% after the u.s. government
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sued the takeover of ge. mark: not every day you see a decline of 10%. the last time it happened was july 2011. as you say, the u.s. government is suing to block the swedish company electrolux taking over general electric's supplies business. the lawsuit was filed yesterday by the justice department. analysts say it has led to uncertainty, as to whether this deal will actually proceed. the u.s. challenge is preventing an obstacle to a deal that sent electrolux shares soaring when the deal was announced on september 8. get in here and have a look. i've circled when the deal was announced. look at how much shares rose on february 16. that was a record high. they've come down, but even including today's drop, the move from that yellow circle to today
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is still an increase of 26% for electrolux shares. electrolux expects the transaction to add to earnings creating a company with annual revenue of about 22.5. it challenges a deal on the ground that it would hurt companies. it comes after months of discussions between electrolux and the u.s. government. electrolux says it is willing to fight u.s. antitrust officials to secure this acquisition by the end of the year. this is a once in a four-year phenomenon. electrolux shares down by 10%. francine: thank you. up next, why facebook is trying to muscle in on youtube's ad territory. manus: they want to make it worth your while to put your video on there. join us on twitter. our twitter question of the day is, what matters more to markets?
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the fed or nonfarm payrolls, or greece? ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." i'm francine lacqua. manus: and i'm manus cranny. greece gets ready for its sunday referendum. a new poll is indicating that voters are going to vote in favor of accepting deeper cuts. prime minister alexis tsipras is urging citizens to vote no. he addressed the nation following reports about his letter to creditors.
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we will be speaking to the finance minister, yanis varoufakis, shortly. francine: facebook is sharing advertising revenue with companies that post videos on its website. facebook will offer contributors 55% of the revenue from ads that appear on videos. facebook now generates more than 4 billion video views a day. manus: the u.s. jobs report is out later today. economists are forecasting employers to add 233,000 jobs for june. the data comes before an extended independence day weekend. francine: let's get more on what we are expecting with marcus ashworth. great to have you on the program. markets are going to be distracted with greece, but it is all about u.s. jobs and the fed. interest rate hike or not this
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year? >> we are leaning more towards december than september. i think as one of the ex-fed guys pointed out yesterday, this greek excuse can be very useful for yellen. if the data isn't strong enough there's something they can lean on. for the moment, i think it is 50-50 september or december. the data we see today may not be that directly relevant. last month was strong at 280,000. the markets speculating 230,000 today. it is really underlining hourly earnings and wage growth. those are the things the fed is looking for. manus: if we look at what the markets positioning are, throughout june, we saw the beginning of a rotation, money coming out of the bond markets.
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are u.s. treasury markets priced for hikes this year or is there further ratcheting in yields to go? >> i think we are in a bear market for bonds. people want to get ready for the long weekend in the states. i don't think people want to have much risk on. whatever the number is, i think there will be a fairly quick snap back. i think the number is going to be reasonably strong with the consensus in job numbers claims. sales were ok yesterday. they were great the month before. housing is very strong. labor has been a pretty good sign. there is a disconnect which the fed needs to see. if you see more evidence of that, we will get the hike in september. francine: in terms of wage
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growth, we have seen a little bit of a pickup. are we going to have any sign today? >> i think you may have a little bit. hourly earnings we are looking at 0.2%. manus: seems to be the shift in oil prices as well. it is incredibly important to the u.s. economic situation. the biggest drop since april in the past couple sessions. where are we with that as the backdrop? >> it has been quite highly correlated. supplies in the u.s. are picking up. they are the highest they've been for a lori -- for a very long while in europe. even though we see the rate drop, the production is holding up well. inventories are picking up. i think the oil price is due a pressure lower. as the driving season in the states is coming towards an end, the market has got itself a
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little into a frenzy and now i suspect things will weaken. francine: what are you expecting? >> i don't have a real call on this one. francine: on, mark is. give me a figure. 250? >> something like that. i don't have a great feel on this one. adp was strong. claims have been pretty good. i'm not saying this is a gamble, but i'd say the choices are strictly stronger than the consensus. manus: thank you very much, marcus. >> i hope i'm as exciting as your next guest. [laughter] manus: he is the man -- let's see what he is going to say about today's action. marcus ashworth there. francine: here are some more of
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bloomberg's top headlines. saudi arabia's prince has pledged to give away $32 billion in the coming weeks. no timetable has been given for the donations. the prince says that his gift will benefit muslim and non-muslim countries. he is the world's 20 guest -- 20th richest person. manus: the u.n. heritage body has told australia to do more to safeguard the barrier reef. unesco stop short of labeling the reef endangered, but said the government must submit regular progress reports. the prime minister said his government was committed to ensuring the protection of the reef. francine: macy's has cut ties with donald trump. the department store chain is pulling merchandise from store shelves after he made remarks about immigrants from mexico and other countries.
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trump put out a statement, saying it was his decision, that he's never been happy about macy's. manus: this is something you do not want to move away from. yanis varoufakis will be joining us live right here on "the pulse ." that is in just a couple minutes. francine: now let's talk tech. facebook is going to share advertising revenue with video contributors. they will be offered 55% of revenue. let's get more on all of this. nejra cehic is here with this. the us trying -- they are trying to spare up video. they are trying to get the better content. nejra: absolutely. video viewing on facebook has exploded. facebook generates more than 4 billion video views a day. the videos are viewed mostly on mobile as well. what this is about it is about
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lowering that premium content away from sites like youtube. facebook wants to persuade major media companies to post more of their videos on facebook, even before their own sites, and increase its ad revenue that way. that makes up about 94% of facebook's annual revenue. 73% of that revenue is from mobile phones. big opportunity. manus: have we had reaction from the advertisers? this is going to change the revenue stream. this is going to change the pricing model in the marketplace. if you are going to draw on the advertisers, you have to incentivize them. nejra: some of them have responded positively. funny or die, that said it is going to resume uploading video to facebook. at the moment, you can see the links but you can't watch the video on facebook. executive from hearst and 20th century fox they said they are
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going to participate in facebook's test program for this. then, you've got publishers like "the new york times" and "buzz feet" uploading videos directly to the site. francine: i know we need to talk angela merkel, but we also want to talk about telepathy. this is mark zuckerberg's big new thing. he thinks that soon, i'll be able to have thoughts and on social media, you will capture that thought? nejra: there's many different movements that facebook is using. they were talking about different ways for advertisers to actually embed videos and posts on facebook, on mobile, and online, rather than just having those banner adverts which are really unattractive and people aren't keen to click on.
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it has been a challenging time. last quarter, they were hurt by the strong dollar. angela merkel, interestingly, she was at a lutheran church convention. she was asked by a child do you think facebook is a good thing? she said, a lot of people say it is terrific, but it isn't going to make you happy. it is nice kind of like a washing machine. [laughter] francine: what a put down. it is funny that she's not that hot on social media. nejra: what if you had a telepathic washing machine? [laughter] francine: i would quite like that. and if it could also cook, that would be wonderful. are we going to hear a lot more innovation from facebook? mark zuckerberg, now he has some hardware. kids are trying to say we have the hardware, what do i do with oculus? nejra: i would undoubtedly think
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so. it is the world's biggest social media site, but you've got so much competition in the tech sector. it would surprise me if they don't have more innovation in the future. manus: let's get straight out to guy johnson. he's standing by in athens with the greek finance minister mr. yanis varoufakis. take it away. guy: thank you very much indeed. yanis are is with me now. thank you for your time this morning. let's talk a little bit about what is happening at the moment. the banking system front and center right now. will the greek banks open next tuesday as normal? mr. varoufakis: absolutely. there is a profound difference between what happened in cyprus and what is happening here. this is not a banking crisis. it is not that the banks are the problem. the banks were perfectly capitalized. what is happening is a political decision by the eurogroup to
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shut the banks down as a way of pushing us to accept a nonviable agreement at the political level. this is a political crisis. once the political crisis is over, the banks will open. guy: how will the banks open without a program? how will the ecb extend ela without a program? you are starting with a blank piece of paper. mr. varoufakis: you have to understand that europe, since the collapse of 2008, has been making up rules as it is going along. qe, everything all these are last-minute arrangements by which to handle an inevitable crisis that no one was expecting. i cannot shear you that if there is -- i can assure you that if there is a political will, the
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ecb can easily make ela sufficient to restart the banking system and we could have an agreement within 24 hours. guy: so the ecb will be making up the rules as it goes along? mr. varoufakis: that is what it does. think back to ireland 2009. whatever it takes, what was that? was there any rule book? guy: and you think ela will be increased on tuesday morning regardless of the outcome? mr. varoufakis: no, it will depend on the outcome. that is why we do have a referendum. it is crucial to coming to an agreement. it has tools, it adopts them because it has to. nobody ever expected the ecb would have to play this role. what we politicians need to do is an able mario draghi and his
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government counsel to do the right thing. guy: so i'm confused. which way will it be ok for the ecb to extend ela? mr. varoufakis: what we do with this economy and whether we carry on extending the crisis will depend on the outcome. if they say yes, we are permitted to sign on the dotted line of the agreement that was offered to us. guy: so you will sign the deal? mr. varoufakis: we are democrats, aren't we? we said we are going to take this to the greek people. if the people say yes to this kind of proposal, we will do whatever it takes to make sure that it is signed. if there is a no vote as we are recommending, then we will immediately start negotiations. there will be an agreement along lines that are different to the
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institutions. guy: what are the greek people voting on? there are people out there saying that there is effectively no offer on the table, you are out of the program. mr. varoufakis: it is ingenious, isn't it? on the 25th of june, i was presented with a comprehensive proposal. it was more or less on a take it or leave it basis. i'm sure that any independent observer would agree. if we were to do that, we were extending the crisis. the banks would we open, but we would be the same as the last five months. what we are saying to the greek people is, no more extend and pretend. this has no specific funding proposal and no debt sustainability analysis. this is what we are saying no
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to. this kind of mentality, just sign, take a small trench of money to tide you over, then come back to the same crisis negotiations. guy: so if there's a yes, what will you be signing? what will you be prepared to sign if there is a yes vote? mr. varoufakis: do you have any doubt that if there is a yes the same proposal will be back on the table? it certainly will be. guy: and that is what you will sign. mr. varoufakis: we will find a way. maybe we will change the configuration of the government. personally, i won't sign of another extend and pretend. i am allergic to extending and pretending. i will do, and i'm sure the prime minister will do, what we must do in order to respect the yes vote of the greek people. but it won't be a yes vote. i'm confident that the greek
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people have had enough of extending and pretending. guy: just to nail you down a little bit more, if there's a yes vote, you will not be finance minister? mr. varoufakis: i will not. guy: so this is make or break for you. mr. varoufakis: but i will help whoever it is in parliament. guy: and you think there will be some sort of coalition formed at that point eston mark -- at that point? . mr. varoufakis: the greek people have had enough of losing their dignity by signing agreements and making pledges that cannot be met because the financing is wrong. guy: just to circle back to the first question, if there is a no vote, you would still expect the ecb to provide extra ela money to the greek banks? mr. varoufakis: i expect central bank independence. i'm not going to tell them what to do but i can tell you that they would be in agreement.
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guy: i'm just thinking about the timeline here. tuesday morning, people taking out 60 euros a day, they want to know whether the banks will open. mr. varoufakis: another terrible thing. it is a terrible thing that the eurogroup chose to close down our banks to deny the greek people -- guy: i appreciate that. but just to come back to the specifics of it, tuesday morning, people want their banks to open up. if there's a no vote, how long will it take to negotiate? how long do you think you can get to the point where you have sufficient commonality in your views with the eurogroup that a deal looks likely and the ecb as the political collateral it needs to say, we will extend ela? mr. varoufakis: about an hour. we have been negotiating for five months. we know their position. they know our position.
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we are ever so close when it comes to the package. just to compare and contrast the institutions' proposal regarding ela, look at ours. they are ever so close. what is not close is the general framework of funding and debt restructuring to make it viable. they wanted us to sign on the dotted line of a nonviable, from a funding perspective, from a sustainability perspective, set of reforms. they are yet another version of austerity. we were prepared to sign it, but it has to be sustainable. if we agreed to the proposal that was given to us you would be back here in october-november talking about another negotiation. this country has had enough. we want to have a reform package
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. we were prepared to do this for the sake of europe and greece. but at least tell us, is this going to be the end of this negotiating under conditions of crisis? they have absolutely no credible funding and debt restructuring proposal. guy: the debt reconstruction is pivotal for you. it remains a dealbreaker. i saw the point in your book. five of them are about debt reconstruction. you see this as absolutely central. mr. varoufakis: i'm the finance minister of the radical left party. don't listen to me. listen to the imf. they came out with a report. do they believe the greek debt is sustainable? they don't. ask any sensible economist. they would say the same thing. if you have an
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on debt sustainability -- guy: debt swaps, maturity extension, would that be enough? mr. varoufakis: it is something a financial engineer can do in 10 minutes. we have a debt sitting in the books as we speak. we have to remove that. you take the liability from one pocket of the troika and you put it somewhere else. you solve the funding problem for the next two years and you unleash qe4 greece. at the same time, we have a cliff, a fiscal cliff, a funding cliff. if you look at our debt repayments, we go from 10 billion to 20 billion. let's extend that, smooth it out. that's what we are proposing. we are a radical left government making proposals that any banker in new york would agree with. guy: so greece will be in
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chapter 11? mr. varoufakis: we've been in chapter 11 since 2010. the problem was that nobody wanted to admit it. the created the problem of insolvency. this economy has lost one quarter of its gdp because of that. it is time we ended it. guy: you personally won't sign a deal without debt reorganization? mr. varoufakis: i'm prepared to cut my arm off. guy: so that is a pretty big red line. mr. varoufakis: since i can remember. they don't have the model right to sign another extend and pretend, which is condemning the greek economy. ask any member of our audience at the moment. would you invest in a country whose debt is not sustainable according to the imf? the only investment we had was speculative money and no serious investment.
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we want to reform this. we are prepared to accept reforms that are not palatable to us. we want this in the context of a debt restructuring and an investment program which takes grexit off the table. the only way to take grexit off the table is to get rid of those funding cliffs and the unsustainability of the debt. guy: i spoke to your predecessor about half an hour ago. he called this a fake referendum. the reason they are saying it is, you talk about taking grexit off the table. why don't you ask a simple question, which is, do you want to be a member of the eurozone regardless of the consequences? portray it in the terms that the greek people can understand. mr. varoufakis: that would be a fake question. let me tell you why. why is greece constantly on the
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brink of collapse with grexit in the air? it is the extending and pretend. it wasn't the radical left government. we are a product of the failure. we really want to stay in the euro. even if we are critical of the institution framework, once we are inside a monetary union like that, we don't want to get out. the question for the greek people is how do you stay in it? do you stay by further extending and pretending? i think not. if we sign, in six months we will be even closer to insolvency, even closer to grexit. i'm not going to put this question to people. if you are asking me, do i want greece in the euro, yes. the greek people want us to stay in the euro. the referendum is about how to achieve that. guy: you keep telling me you are
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a radical left government and you have indicated that if there is a yes, you will step aside. do you get the impression that berlin is seeking regime change? do you get the prussian -- the impression that angela merkel is seeking regime change? mr. varoufakis: i'm going to quote the bbc television serial and say, you may say that but i can't possibly comment. guy: do you think this is a government they don't want to deal with? mr. varoufakis: you don't have to ask me that. it is quite evident, isn't it? guy: really? mr. varoufakis: think of the elections. think of all the conservative parties that campaigned against us. the spanish prime minister came here and campaigned in favor of the sitting government. what the german press, the french press was writing, it just didn't like the idea of our
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government. left-right means nothing these days. this is a question of, do we challenge the established logic, which in our view is rational that you need to impose the greatest austerity on the most recessionary economy -- they don't like the idea to challenge that. guy: there's another way of looking at it, which is to say better trust you. mr. varoufakis: let me put it frankly. they trust us to say no to a logic which they understand but which they don't have the political means by which to reconsider themselves. guy: do you think there's a -- mr. varoufakis: they know if we get our word on something, we keep it. the question to us is lopsided. guy: the sense seems to be that they don't trust you. mr. varoufakis: i dispute that. i think they trust us to do what
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we say we will do. they can see that with the referendum. they don't like what we are doing. nobody likes to be told they were wrong. we have the imf, the european commission, the european central bank imposing on this country a program of reforms which is the greatest failure in economic history. in the world. they don't like to hear that. they want to pretend the reason why we have trouble is because we were elected and there was a problem. it is all because of the government. it isn't. guy: you ride on your motorbike. you put your helmet downstairs. at what point in the day do you go to the atm and take out your 60 euros? mr. varoufakis: i haven't been. my wife and i must be the only greeks that haven't done it. i just feel it would be inappropriate for me to be at
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the atm. guy: why? you are a member of the greek population. wouldn't it be solidarity? mr. varoufakis: two line up with them? it would be in a sense. guy: we look forward to seeing you there. to that point, much has been made of the fact that tourists don't have the same rules applied to them. do you have access to money elsewhere? you haven't been to the atm, but you have thought this one through. mr. varoufakis: let's not personalize this too much. my wife and i are living a very frugal life. guy: but you have skin in the game here. you feel as much solidarity with the greek people as any member of society. you have a passport. people say to you, are you doing this on good faith? mr. varoufakis: i left a job to
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be here. the moment i decided to throw my hat in the political ring, i also decided i'm not going to leave. i'm going to be here. guy: you are not leaving. so on monday, if you are out of a job, you are going to stay here? mr. varoufakis: i'll be a member of parliament. we are going to have a very solid base on which to make the point that it is time europe accepts a very radical principle, the principle of democracy. guy: you still think -- you may step aside, but you still think syriza will be the bulk of the government? mr. varoufakis: syriza is going to be the major force in greek politics after monday, what ever happens. we are going to make sure that this country is given the chance it deserves to become a proper
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first-class, not second-class or third class, citizen within the european union and the eurozone. at the moment, we've been treated just like a debt colony. final question. you and mr. tsipras obviously talk. you said you would step aside if the vote doesn't go your way have you talked about whether he would step aside? >> we're going to be here to forge a mutually -- guy: it is great to speak with you. vanis varoufakis the greek finance minister. francine, back in the studio. i hand it to you. francine: thank you so much. what a great, great interview with mr. varoufakis there. he said a number of things. he said if the yes vote happens he is out. he is also talking about the bank solvency. he said there shouldn't be a problem. if we have an grem, we will
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negotiate. manus: i think the other thing is varoufakis said this is not the banking crisis. he said he would not sign a deal with the creditors. he would cut off his right arm rather than sign a deal with the creditors unless it was actually debt relief involved in that. i think that sort of sums it up very, very clearly. he would cut off his right arm. that is the whole point. he has made it very, very clear. if the greeks vote yes -- one hour is what he said. francine: i don't know how many people believe what he is saying at the moment in terms of he says if we don't find a deal with debt restructuring, do we have an indication that the
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creditors are keen on debt restructuring. let's have a check on the markets and how they reacted to the breaking news interview. manus: 20 minutes of tv gold. we were all glued to our tv sets. he may not be finance minister on monday but will still be a member of apartment and syriza will be the dominant force in greek politics. that has to be the comment of the week that he would cut off his arm, the market reaction hasn't probably been as big as one might expect. i've looked at all the big asset classes, manus and francine. the interview started at 9:41 london time and ended just over one minute ago. the 20 minutes after it started. we had the euro move just a
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little bit higher. this week has been a funny week. it is rising today acting like a haven. bad news, it rises, good news it falls. that is the euro dollar. the euro stoxx 50, the gauge of euro stocks within the eurozone has responded far more. i circled when the interview began, get in here, have a look. it has come down. it was actually rising since the start of that interview. it has steadily cleaned lower. the stoxx 600 rose by 1.5% after falling by 4% in the previous two days. vital chart with the greek 10-year which interestingly is rising. the yield is falling. this shows you what has been happening this week. today the yield is down by 15
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basis points. there hasn't been a great market reaction to the greek finance minister varoufakis, who said he would resign if there was a yes vote on monday and he would rather chop off his arm than sign a deal than not commit to debt reform. it was an extraordinary interview. a lot of huge market reaction. manus: thanks for that round of the market reaction. let's cross to eric schatz kerr. i thought what was interesting is varoufakis said the greek position and creditor position were very, very close except for debt forgiveness. that's where he said he would cut off his right arm and not sign that deal. erik? erik: well, manus, there is a little more daylight between the creditors position and the greek position than mr. varoufakis was
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willing to acknowledge. we know this because we saw the counter offer that tsipras sent to juncker and lagarde and grag draghi the other day. if we really want to focus on the it, that's where we would look. it is prornt to look at the things they can control and the things they can't control. varoufakis addressed both in that fantastic interview with guy johnson. as you point out, he said i would rather cut off my arm than to sign an agreement with that debt restructuring. he can decide how to cut off his arm. with a hacksaw? a butter knife? a scalpel? that is his decision. he cannot control whether the european creditors decide to turn on the credit task or the
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liquidity task. the greek banks are solvent. the only reason they are shut is because the tap is cut off. that is true. there is -- they would be open without emergency liquidity assistance. how can you have a solve ept banking system if it requires assistance from the e.c.b.? that's what i was wondering. what specifically can mr. varoufakis and mr. tsipras beyond the referendum? all they can do is call it. it is up to the greek people to decide whether they want a bailout and whether they want to stay in the european union. francine: thank you. let's have a listen to when mr. varoufakis said he would resign if greek -- greece doesn't
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accept the proposals monday. >> i will not but i will help whoever is. manus: let's get over to hans nichols. you heard that. it was tv gold. it ranged across everything, from the e.c.b., from talking about his decision if the yes vote came through. the lack of clarity of what they are proposing to their nation. hans: he made this the same about himself and his negotiation strategy and their tactics. there is a great deal of clarity coming out of this interview, if you have a yes vote and you want to see the syriza government go by the wayside, you vote yes. the greek government has been trying to make this referendum
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about what the offer is. i suspect it may have been a strategic wonder. just made this about himself. there is a great deal of clarity st. if you want varoufakis out, you can vote yes. if you want to keep the current government in, you vote no. varoufakis has made it simple. there was lot of clarity in this interview. now it is up to the greek population and public to digest it. i suspect we picked up a few viewers in athens. guys? francine: thank you so much, hans nichols and erik shatzker. europe has been making up the rules as it goes along. varoufakis has been speaking to our very own guy johnson in athens. >> you have to understand that europe since the great financial collapse of 2008 has been making up rules as it is going along.
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all these are last-minute arrangements by which to handle an inevitable crisis that anybody was expecting. i can assure you that on monday if there is a political will, the e.c.b. on the back of some preliminary agreement by teleconference or euro group could easily -- to restart the banking system and we could have an agreement within 24 hours. manus: let's get a little bit more. sitting through interview, ian. this is where varoufakis says we can have everything resolved in an hour on monday. what did you make of it? >> i thought it was a fascinating interview. i think as your crorpt intimated moments ago, -- correspondent
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intimated, it is a yes or no vote on the government, it is as simple as that. whether this interview materially changes the polling in the run-up to sunday's referendum remains to be seen. i think the interview made it clear exactly where we stand. it was a yes vote by mr. varoufakis that the government resign. if it is a no vote we presumably start all over again. we have to see what the reaction of the creditors is as to the outcome of sunday's vote. francine: as soon as there is some kind of agreement the e.l.a. comes back and the capital controls are lifted within an hour. listen to the interview, it was 20 great minutes of tv gold. >> it was tv gold. i think what we have seen during all of this crisis, which
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dragged on for far too long and it had the ability to create some volatility in the financial markets. trading the greek headlines has been a dangerous and perilous business. even yesterday in the morning session of trading, the news was that apparently the greek prime minister accepted the proposals. that was then denied. then they said the referendum is still on. voting no doesn't mean you leave the union. i think we're gradually getting clarity on where we're going with all of this. what a vote means. what the outcome could be on monday. certainly the political dynamics could turn out to be quite messy. manus: the greek finance minister said he won't sign a deal without a restructure.
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>> the german framework in restructuring -- has -- to make viable. manus: time and time again he said there were moments where they were conflicted varoufakis' tweet from last night said this comes down to the credibility to have i.m.f. all of their models are wrong and erroneous. he really lambasted the i.m.f. is that the key? >> i think it is. manus: between now and sunday? >> whether it is between now and sunday or now and a month of sundays remains to be seen. there is no doubt. the burden is not sustainable on any criterion and the i.m.f. , the creditors vees of where debt should be, i think it is 20% by 2022 is just very, very difficult. of course all of this ongoing to cry sis, when it is done,
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especially having a negative effect on the greek economy, things are already bad enough. the economy is in recession. semidepression. i think loss of confidence could easily escalate things further. if that is case, if the economy gets worse then greece's public finances get worse. it is a very slim budget surface as it is. it could easily be capsized. official creditors, they own 90% of greek debt. they clearly don't want to take a loss on their holdings. they will argue back in 2012 we had interest rate relief. there is no -- for payment before 2023. what is it that you wan? even with that, the debt g.d.p. ratio is higher than the creditors. that is i think a real issue. francine: can the greek banks actually reopen in their current
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form? it seems everyone -- the greek government is saying they will be fine. just vote no, it will be fine. >> they don't want to trigger a panic. i think that is right. clearly it is not fine. we know that the deposit outflows have been very serious. i think that the liquidity crisis is turning into a solvency crisis. that is what the e.c.b. is worried about. i think it would take a political decision by the e.u. leaders. if they do, then there is a real problem for the banking system. manus: that is the issue for monday morning in terms of e.c.b. you're going to stay with us. we're going to bring you live continuesous coverage of the sunday greek referendum here on bloomberg. you can watch "greece in crisis" a special report on sunday evening u.k. time.
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we will have coverage. francine: look at what else is on our radar. the shanghai composite index fell before 4,000 for the first time since april. the benchmark index was at 3.5% at the close. manus: advertising revenue of companies that post videos on social networks. more premier yume -- premium content. ads that appear alongside videos. video viewing has explode on facebook in the past year. francine: investigators say a faulty connector sending inaccurate information and pilots mistakenly shutting down the wrong engine led to the
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transasia plane crash when it clipped a highway and crashed into a nearby river. manus: the u.s. jobs report is out later today. economists are forecasting employers will add 233,000 jobs for june. u.s. markets are closed tomorrow. francine: let's find out what is affecting the markets with mark. mark: it feels strange talking about the u.s. jobs report after that interview. such is life. it is still a big piece of economic data today and it is on thursday which is a change because of the extended holiday which is in linkage to the independence day, the weekend. employers probably added 233000 jobs. if we get above 200,000, it will
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be the sath time in 16 months that would have happened. that will back the case for a rate hike possibly as soon as september. employers added 280,000 jobs in may. get in here. this is 209th, 215th -- 280,000. the monthly average this year is 217,000. remember that weather-related figure back in march? just a gain of 119,000 breaking that 200,000 run. last year's average was 260,000. still the average for this year is 270,000. the jobless rate may fall to 5.4% after rising to 5.5% in may. 5.4% would match the lowest since 2008. this is the part of the jobs report i believe we should be watching today. wages. average hourly earnings. this is the one remaining weak
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spots over the job market rebound. in may, average hourly earnings getting close rose an annual 2.3%. that is the most since right there, august 2013. they have been stuck in a pretty narrow range. there is 2%. pretty much either side of 2% since the expansion again. other gauges such as the e.c.i. the employment cost index and the federal bangor atlanta have shown faster growth. on the month of the average hourly earnings, expect a 2.3% increase year on year. don't forget when janet yellen last spoke before the markets, she described wage growth as relatively subdued. one other sub come opponent to watch out for today is the participation rate which indicates the working age people in the labor force. it peaked at 67.3% in 2000.
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it fell to a low in 2013. since then it has been hovering around that level. it is a key gauge of slack within the labor market. what does its all mean? it all will go towards when the fed decides when they are going the raise interest rates. this is what the market is telling us now. fed fund futures show there is a 36% chance of a rate hike in september and a 73% chance by december. today is the big one. 1:30 london time. expect an increase of 233000 jobs which will be the 15th time in 16 months we have had an increase of more than 200,000. there you go. manus: thanks. let's get neil's opinion. mark was outlining there the expectations. 233,000. it is going to be all about the
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wages though. >> that was a very good summary of what we were looking for. provide some light relief from the headlines on greece that's for sure. i think that the wage growth numbers could be interesting. i think if we get near full employment, which we're not far away from, whatever that definition might be, that is probably 3% 3 1/2%. it is creeping up. other measures, labor costs have been jumping. the employment cost index has been going up. so the start of some pressures though. we must remember that wage growth has been on the floor. median incomes have been flat for some time. maybe structural chage changes in the u.s. labor market as well. this is going to be an interesting jobs report. francine: for wage growth. i was looking at some numbers
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last night. actually the lower part over the wages have been increasing a little bit. when can we be comfortable that it is big? if you look at the -- is there one that gives us a little bit more hope that it is something real and the trend is upward? >> one of the big u.s. companies, role models of this world have been raising -- sop industries, some of the surveys have reported labor shortages in certain industries. it is very interesting. a lot of the jobs that have been created in the u.s. market tend to be the low paid low productivity variety part time. so the average annual salary or wage if you like is actually quite low. it might explain why we have not had this big surge in consumer spending. remember everyone was saying u.s. consumest will -- from
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lower oil prices. manus: they didn't. this goes back to the broader question from yellen. and the guidance from the federal reserve. yellen said she is not convinced there is a wage growth in the system. we are obsessed about the first move and it is more about the trajectory. when do you see the first move? you lived through 1994. a couple of bond market rises. i lost the seat of my pants in 1994. we're not going to see that kind of rise in rates again. >> they are definitely super dovish. they are not trigger happy. i actually think they should have raised rates a long time ago. i think they are taking lots of risks. i think this ultraeasing policy -- manus: you think it would be strong enough -- >> g.d.p. growth was at 5%.
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growth is around 2%. there is a commentary narrative that the fed missed the boat. they have been warning about the possible impact on financial stability from prolonging ultraeasing policy. francine: i believe the worst thing you can do is hike rates even small and having to reverse that, like trichet. >> the e.c.b. is certainly guilty of that, that's for sure. i think that certainly i think the economy is not in a depression or recession. i think the economy is strong enough to take a quarter point hike. if it is not then something is seriously, seriously wrong. i think they should have started a normalizeation process last yi. the problem is if they get boxed
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in and run out of ammo. i think they are aware of that. i think what they want to do is yes, get a -- lift the target range for the fed's fund rate in as janet yellen has said the trajectory after is likely to be quite dovish so we shall see. francine: thank you so much. manus: stockbrokers have been locked out of the market following capital controls. bloomberg spent the afternoon inside one of the company's top broker gauges to gauge the move. >> 95%. it is unbelievable what happened.
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>> investment services. six days. we cannot even -- we don't know now that we are -- the greek people have great stocks. we have to pay tomorrow the -- and i don't know how we will pay if the banks are closed. we are the only company that has increased the employment. we are now 35 people.
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the political -- previous information stand they want they should be able to make a lot of money by buying and selling and buying. to take advantage of information. they might take advantage or francine: an interesting angle to what we have been talking about all week. stay tuned to "the pulse." we'll bring you more of that exclusive interview with vanis varoufakis after the break. manus: tweeting the whole way through guy's interview there in terms of varoufakis threatening to cut off his right arm. a couple of different headlines.
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a pharmaceutical company reconsidering. the riall of this situation. join us on 2013 at flacqua and at manus cranny. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm francine lacqua. manus: i'm manus cranny. facebook is set to begin sharing advertising revenue with companies that air videos on the social network. facebook will offer contributors 55% of the revenue from ads that appear alongside videos. that is the same split as youtube. video viewing has exploded on facebook in the past year and they generate more than 4 billion video views today.
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francine: the u.s. jobs report is out later today. they are expecting 233,000 jobs for june. u.s. markets are closed tomorrow. manus: vanis varoufakis has told "the pulse" he will resign if greece votes yes in sunday's referendum. there is growing support for deeper cuts to stay in the euro. mr. varoufakis said in no uncertain teams he wouldn't sign a deal without a debt restructuring. guy: you personally worked -- that is -- >> i prefer to cut my arm off. guy: ok. that's pretty big red line. >> since i can remember. francine: all right. that's quite dramatic. we got the point.
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jonathan: a fantastic interview. that was exciting. the moves in equity market this morning not really exciting. losses on the periphery. only about .1% on the ibex in spain. we stay in positive territory in london. you want to see big equity market action go straight to china. the shanghai composite slipping below 4,000 for the first time since april. an almost 25% drop in almost a month. that is what you really call a selloff. the shanghai composite down by another 3.5%. the equity market abs not in europe. it is away from china. equities sell off a little bit here in europe, bonds low as well. yields higher. not just divergeance between periphery and the court. bonds lower, yields higher. by five basis points.
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yields also going higher. u.s. treasuries, they are going to be the ones to watch later when we get the jobs report. yields go higher to 2.44%. we're up by two basis points. looking for jobs 233,000 . jobs thursday. feels a little strange. independence day weekend over in the united states states unemployment expected to fall back to 5.4%. in the fx market i'm looking at this pair. look at the swede ircurrency selling off against the dollar. on the back of a surprise rate cut. increased to a bond buying plan even though g.d.p. is fairly resill yept. it is about the strength over the currency going forward. that introduced some kronor strength. they react to that.
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euro/dollar, up about .2%. the dollar is going to have a lot of attention there of course on the jobs number. don't forget the euro. have a look at what the e.c.b. has just done. expanded the shopping list of potential, eligible securities that they can buy. the likes of itly with you till philadelphia expanding the shopping list. what does that tell you? they have a little bit more work to do. they have the assets to buy. that was from the e.c.b. today. very interesting. it has gone unnoticed by a few people. francine: thank you. in about 25 minutes, you'll wee tom keene. he joins us for a preview. it is thursday and jobs day. tom: i love what jonathan said about the swedish krona and some of the contagion going on in europe. there are a number of jobs
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reports before the september feding and what has to be said, everything considered this is an important jobs day. citigroup just publishing a note that is very straightforward. he thinks the fed is way, way behind and this report this morning will be very, very important. manus: we obviously, tom, we can't forget we just had that cracking interview by guy with vanis varoufakis. it is fascinating to hear varoufakis say that the e.c.b. have been making rules up as they go along. if greece wakes up monday morning and votes no fine. we'll just get around the table and reorganize things and sign a deal in an hour. tom: i would look at the new -- that will overwhelm varoufakis and tsipras. monitoring what a grexit would
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do. jpmorgan was working this a few days ago. beginning to frame out what the ramifications are of a grexit and what it would mean for some form of drachma. it is a very -- it is a soup right now as we get -- let's forget about getting to monday. maybe getting to friday or saturday. manus: you're right. takes on a whole new continuum there. let's switch gears. ireland and portugal where a few years ago widely perceived as being in the same boat as greece? why has ireland survived while greece is in the middle of a collapse? we're joined now by the former anglo bank chairman. great to have you with us this morning. we have been having this conversation just in the past 30 minutes with vanis varoufakis where he is saying he would not
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sign a deal unless there is debt forgiveness. the e.c.b. has been making the rules up as they go along. he really is personalizing this about himself and his party. what do you make of where we are? >> i think tezz right. on the other hand, there is -- there needs to be a recognition of the fact that the greek economy is in recession and is going further down. the reasons for that we could argue about. we are who we are. i would think any new discussion, they need to start fairly quickly. should take account of the reality there is a need to find a way of getting rid of some of the unsustainable debt burden in greece and give the economy room to breathe. expecting an economy in that condition to -- that any other e.u. member says is absolute
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nonsense. i would say that what we need to see is that the -- make a new agreement that would set up a fund to take over say half of greece's current stock of sovereign debt in return for a consideration that would pay off greece's -- at the end of 2017. for that, have a 10-year period where a the greeks made progress in paying down part of that debt that the full growth of on a two to one basis have heard of that dead over a 10-year period you could write off 20% or whatever portion of the debt was taken over and reconsider the theme at the on the other hand that. manus: those are -- those are very laudable, commendable ambitions for europe to get to but we have a long way to go between now and then. i want to try and bring this back to the nearer term. if we wake up monday morning and
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there is a no vote which comes through from the greek people as mr. tsipras the prime minister has really pushed them to do. do you really think -- is the e.c.b. left in a more difficult position in terms of the ability to continue to provide liquidity to the greek banks? it suddenly becomes a solvency issue on monday morning. >> it is not really a solvency issue. there is only one operational difference on monday morning between a yes vote and a no vote. if there is a yes vote syriza is out of government. they have to put a new government together. that that is to begin a new negotiation with the e.u. if there is a no vote then according to mr. varoufakis he wants to start a new discussion with the e.u. i think on both sides that discussion has to be based on some realistic appreciation of what the possibilities are for
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the greek economy and what the european union or the euro can do for the greek economy. there have been totally only unrealistic positions on both sides. any plan that requires greece to produce -- can only be a non-starter. a plan that ignores the fact that the greek sovereign debt position is unsustainable equally is a non-starter. i think we need to get back to reality and look at those two issues and see what we can do about it. there is a way of doing it. manus: the creditors and the europeans have handled this situation. ireland, portugal and spain. and tds very much in ireland and -- it is very much in ireland, portugal and stain's interest to crush down on the greeks because they want to show their domestic audiences the rise of extremism.
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they want to treat the greeks quite severely to send a clear political message domesticically. this is what you get if you votes for extreme left. >> i think that message has already been delivered. if you look at the conditions that greece is in now. it is very clear that the strategy that there was, if there was a strategy pursued by syriza since the election has been a complete and utter failure and it is now time to pull the fat out of the fire and get something sensible going. i understand the political hesitations in the other program countries. but given the objective situation in greece, there is no way that is going to be solved wouldn't some debt writedown. i think the other countries have shown despite the difficulties they have had it has been possible for their economies to do it without a debt writedown
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and they should soak that up and get on working out something for greece. manus: thank you very much for joining us this morning. francine: get more from that interview with the greek finance minister varoufakis. take a listen. guy: what are the greek people voting on? >> on the 25th of june, it was more or less a -- basis. what he said for us, i'm sure any independent observer would agree with this. if we were to agree on that, we would be extending it out a few months. the banks would be open but we would have exactly the same situation as we have had the
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last five months. to say no, but to -- which has -- no specific funding proposal coming with it and no analysis that is worth the paper that it is written on. just sign up and take a small amount of money just to tide you over for a few months. guy: what will you be prepared to sign come tuesday morning if there is a yes? >> do you have any doubt if there is a yes, the same proposal that was presented to me, it certainly will be. guy: that is what you'll sign up for? >> we will find a way. some may not be able to stomach it.
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i am allergic to extending and pretending. i will do, and i'm sure the prime minister will do, what we must do in order to respect the yes vote. i'm confident the people have had enough of extending and pretending. guy: just to nail you down a little bit more, if there's a yes vote, you will not be finance minister? >> i will not. guy: right. ok. so this is make or break for you? >> but i will help whoever it is in parliament. guy: and you think there will be some sort of coalition formed at that point? >> the greek people have had enough of losing their dignity by signing agreements and making pledges that cannot be met. francine: great interview.
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guy is in athens. he said a lot more than he has said over the last couple of days. guy: he said he won't sign the deal. he thinks if we get a yes vote, the greeks should take the deal that is on the table with a few tweaks here and there. i probably should have nailed him down more on that front. he said he would not sign that deal. he would need a new finance minister comp monday night if there is a yes vote. it is very, very close at this stage and vanis varoufakis, i suspect is watching that very, very carefully at the moment. tezz confident that the no vote is going to come through. manus: i thought it was interesting when you challenged him in terms of the wording what he was putting to the greek people. there is no doubt about it. it is not exactly a straightforward piece of paper the average voter has to read and understand.
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he didn't want to make it any clearer, did he? guy: no, i asked him whether or not it should be a simple in-out, do you want to be part of the eurozone. the words the polling company was skirting around. he didn't want to go down that road. he didn't feel that was right way to go. i was talking to his predecessor. the former finance minister and he said it was -- it was so complicated. this shouldn't be put in front of the greek people. mr. varoufakis believes that an in-out vote is exactly the same thing. it leaves us in a very, very difficult position at the moment. what exactly are the greek people voting for? do they understand what they are voting for and ultimately how will they vote ultimately be used? we wait and see. he was really adamant. he doesn't want to see the kind of clarity, do you want to be a
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member of the eurozone? he doesn't feel that was appropriate. manus: fantastic interview. there was a real relaxed nature between the two of them. francine: guy hit the nail on the head. the problem is just too complicated. to varoufakis' point, maybe it should be simpler. as we wait for greeks to vote yes or no for austerity. an s&p report is suggesting the possibility of a grexit has increased to 50 pbt. if it were to reintroduce the drachma, what -- manus: that is a huge question. we like to run numbers. he was for this. devalue. the report that they have done is that it works. do you agree what hans? >> it is a controversial call. get
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into debating him. i've done that before. it is certainly a case. if you look at the track record of currencies or new currencies they decline on their creation. someone else has run the numbers. john norman did it and citigroup did it. john norman reviewed seven over the last two decades that should have either let currency or managed currency systems. history isn't particularly pretty for greece for any new drachma. the average decline over the first year was more than 50%. there are reasons that greece might actually do ok. its economy grew last year. some of the things that would have hobbled curnsniss the past. it is a monetary anchor. economic plans for the future. all of these things are going to -- francine: it is unclear to me what happened. it is in case of the
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reintroduction of the drachma. could it be a currency that is still renominated in euros? >> the situation is there is no new drachma hitting the streets come monday morning if the vote goes against bailout. the grexit which citigroup came up with, grimbo, a limbo situation where you have i.o.u.'s or your euros are stamped with a new stamp. this is the process that could take a while. the creation of the euro took at least three years when it started cracking along. greece is not going to have that time allowed. it will certainly be a fairly trauma situation as they work out how to get new drachmas of on to the -- manus: you have the logistics, whatever happens next monday,
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whatever the outcomes are, the actual changing over a currency across a desperate geographically desperate country. it is all over the islands as well. thank you. our chief international correspondent. francine: and london bureau chief. saudi arabia's prince has pledged to give away $32 billion in come years. no timetable has been given for the donation but the prince said his gifts would benefit muslim and nonmuslim countries. he is the world's 20th richest person with $30.5 billion. manus: the u.n. stopped short from labling the great barrier reef endangered.
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the prime citizenster said his government was committed to protection over the reef. fred: the department store chain is pulling merchandise from store shelves after he made remarks about immigrants from mexico. he put out the statement that it was his decision and he has never been happy about making his nice china. manus: here is one for the car lovers everywhere. the original honda ms 6. it was out of production 10 years ago but now it is making a comeback. it carries the acura badge in the united states. >> have you ever waited for something? waited so long that it hurt? but when it finally arrived, it was exactly what you hoped for? we have suffered years waiting
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for this car to come back into our lives. finally it has. sort of. this is the new acura. intent some quality time with the only nsx in the world during the pike hill climb weekend where cars hit 199 miles per hour as they drive 13 miles straight up the side of a mountain. the nsx was the pace car tr the race and it was the perfect car tr the job. just look at that beauty. acura won't release many technical details yet but expect it to exceed 500 horsepower. it will probably average an
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efficiency of 20-25 miles per gallon. that is not to bad. it has a six signature dertur sill dar engine. it is not the naturally aspirated sports coupe of yore. paired with the torque and electric motor, it has instant aeneas aggression. they say this is a car for the future. so about that original nsx. honda wanted its own super car to compete with the hot and delicate cars that looked pretty but were unsuitable for city streets. they delivered with the nsx. it reached iconic status.
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then suddenly it ended. acura discontinued the beloved model in 2005 hinting at an update. fans waited years, literally a decade for this car and now finally a prototype has arrived. everywhere we stop people couldn't resist taking pictures. for those looking to purchase their own, the wait isn't over yet. a near total engine redesign has already slowed production and engineers are working on the electrical components and interior trimming. acura said they will sell the super car later this fall, but only time will tell. if you think you might buy an nsx, try comparing it to an audi
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l 8, a mercedes or a tesla model s. it might be more powerful than some and less plush than others but it will toe the line with any of them. francine: let's get back to our top story and to greece. let's hear more from mr. vanis varoufakis. he spoke to bloomberg's guy johnson a short time ago. >> if we sign -- we are closer to insolvency. closer to a grexit. if you were asking me do i want to -- yes. it is a senseless question. the greeks want us to stay in the euro. do we achieve it by accepting another -- i don't think so. mark: i would rather cut my arm
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off than sign a deal that restructuring greece's debt. vanis varoufakis talking to our very own guy johnson earlier. that's when we spoke. a little movement in the euro dollar. rising today. there is euro stoxx 50. that is where the biggest move has been seen. the market is a little bit already. don't forget the jobs report. this is the most important sub come point of the jobs report. we are expecting 233,000 jobs to be added to the u.s. economy. economists expect an increase of 2.33%. but it is all about that interview and guy johnson. what a job. francine: thank you so much, mark. we also heard from the -- who said he cannot support a reform that they do not take seriously.
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that's it from london. ♪
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tom: so much for no contagion. responding to flight you quality. if/interest rates. tsipras and varoufakis try to get to monday. it is job stay. -- it is jobs day.
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less competition and airlines means higher ticket prices. $800 is the new $350 ticket. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is thursday, july 2. i am tom keene. what an amazingly busy day. let's get to our top headlines. >> greece prime minister getting nowhere with his restart bailout talks. your zone officials told alexis tsipras we will see what greek voters have is a this weekend. >> we see no ground for further talks at this point. there will be no further talks coming days nor eurogroup level nor between the greek authorities and institutions of proposals or financial arrangements. we w

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