get to monday. it is job stay. -- it is jobs day. less competition and airlines means higher ticket prices. $800 is the new $350 ticket. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is thursday, july 2. i am tom keene. what an amazingly busy day. let's get to our top headlines. >> greece prime minister getting nowhere with his restart bailout talks. your zone officials told alexis tsipras we will see what greek voters have is a this weekend. >> we see no ground for further talks at this point. there will be no further talks coming days nor eurogroup level nor between the greek authorities and institutions of proposals or financial arrangements. we will simply wait the outcome

of the referendum on sunday. >> right now that vote is too close to call. a new poll said 47% of greeks supporting yes that is more austerity measures, and 43% in favor of no with a three point margin of error. coming up, we will speak with guy johnson in athens about his interview with the outspoken finance minister yanis varoufakis. this morning's jobs report is about more than just employment it is also about the fed. we will get the figures 2.5 hours from now. the economy added 200 33,000 jobs. investigators want to know if airlines in the u.s. are colluding to drive up prices. american and southwest say there that letters from the justice department asking for details of

meetings and conversations on the supply of seeds. that is a crucial factor in determining fares. senator blumenthal asked for the investigation. >> holding down supply economics 101, that is a violation of law if it is misuse of market power. >> airline trade group said domestic fares are down this year and capacity is at a postrecession high. paypal is getting into the international money transfer market agreed to pay $819 for xoom. at the women's world cup, the u.s. versus japan in the final. last night final minutes of japan versus england, in english player tries to clear the ball away and kicks it into her own goal. japan was the semi final game

to-one. sunday, rematch of world cup final from four years ago. japan to the u.s. and that went on penalty kicks. -- on that one on penalty kicks. this is a huge deal right? >> the u.s. made it through on the strength of its defense. we will see if they can keep that up against japan. they have not given up a goal in 513 minutes of play. tom: japan versus u.s. on sunday. mycolet's do a currency check. job stay at april and 30. the euro way under. -- jobs day at 8:30.

the euro underway. the german two-year i am watching, -0.24. as we saw in sweden earlier in gold, really has my attention, breaking down not turkey's support, but we are there this thursday morning. how do you hinge this together? how to take reese and puerto rico and the jobs market and put it together? mike mckee, many would say that dollar the blended index -- i rarely do this. but this is a textbook tenant with all that tension of which way. the believe is stronger dollar solves a lot of problems. >> is also a lot of problems for many but it does not help the u.s., there are questions about whether ecb policies in greece will mean for the dollar therefore, the u.s. economy. tom: some of the dollar

calculus. we will talk to alan krueger about the u.s. economy. it is thursday in athens. it is a very long time until monday. guy johnson is in athens. he is just spoken to mr. varoufakis. as everyone tries to get to monday. you made world headlines. you moved the market on greek german spread. what was the key insight from the finance minister? guy: i think the key insight is that he is going to quit if we don't get a no vote this weekend, tom. mr. varoufakis has yet to put his hand in the atm. he is yet to show solidarity and stand in line with the greek people, but he is putting his faith as finance minister in the hands of the greek people this weekend. >>, and, you will not be finance minister? >> i will not. >> so this is make or break for you? >> it would help whoever it is

over in the greek parliament. guy: he still firmly believes we're going to get a no vote this weekend. he firmly believes we're not going to continue this process of extend and pretend, as he puts it. he says as well he would rather to his arm off if we did not see the debt reorganization as part and parcel of this process. tom: i would agree but i wonder how he plays to the greek people? how are tsipras and varoufakis playing to the greek people this morning? they love talking to guy johnson. can they talk to their own people this weekend? guy: mr. tsipras was on television last night. it was no, no, no. that is the message he is putting across very clearly. blaming everybody else but his government. he still feels a no vote is the way to go, tom.

back to say the pulling is quite tied at this stage. >> it is not much concession if you quit if there is a yes vote because that is what the people would be expressing anyway at that point expressing disagreement with him, that they want to stay in the euro. you would still stay on as a member of parliament. what is the concession? guy: i think the concession is what he told me, he would sign up. they would sign on the dotted line. there may be a little bit of wiggle room and i probably should have pushed him harder whether they will sign a deal that is on offer us a moment if that yes vote comes through. i think we should frame it in a different way and look at it the other way. if there is a yes vote, we signed the still. and maybe that is the way we should be thinking about it as a referendum. mike: a question about what they do next. he said they will sign on the daughter line, but what is there to sign? what did he say about the fact europeans have pulled the deal? guy: mike, he is as ever saying

the rules will be made up as we go along. he still firmly believes there is a deal to be done, that a deal will be done quickly. i said, will the banks open regardless of the outcome? he talked around that a little bit. i asked him than whether or not starting with a blank visa paper, he's at a joe could be done quite quickly. there is little room between the two sides. tom: guy johnson, thank you. mr. johnson will join us in the next hour. it is friday in washington -- or it seems so. jobs day this fourth of july thursday. julie hyman is looking forward to 8:30 this morning. what is the key insight in washington? what is the topic you're focused on this morning? julie: we will be looking at the headline numbers, looking for 233,000, the bloomberg consensus from our survey, of economists looking for that for the nonfarm

payrolls, looking for 5.4% on the jobless rate matching the lowest rate since 2008. all of these numbers, as long as they remember in trend, should not derail the market. that would be the 15th of the past 16 numbers -- months we've seen over 200,000. as long as we remain on trend, those summers we can almost disregard. economists and investors and traders are going to be focusing on wage growth. that will likely be the most key number will step 2.3% as the number we're looking at in terms of year-over-year average hourly earnings growth. that is what the fed did -- that is watching as well. tom: thank you. mike am of the research reports this morning of a very good number. what does it mean for janet yellen if we get 300,000 with revisions? mike: it will move everybody's forecasting for september and make for an interesting testimony. tom: this is a big deal.

we were talking about resource or puerto rico, this would be front and center if we get a bang up number this morning. jim glass and bill gross will be joining us at 8:30. this morning, corners torn -- cornerstone capital, chief executive officer. good morning. the swirl of news is extraordinary. i want to talk about what this means for the average american person. we have a better job economy and yet anecdotally, what we hear the desk, that is only for part of america. >> we're looking at a lot of crosscurrents and a virgins. everyone was the king, what does this mean to me? it is easier to look at that than it was the impacts on the local economy. great ideas for transpacific trade. locally, not great. tom: well said. you have a big trade agreement, fine, but what does it mean for the average american as we go to

this jobs report? mike: we're seeing consumer confidence rise. it seems people are beginning to feel better. will they start spending more money now that they feel better? >> it is not just wages. the income equality issues very concerned about that. what does that mean to their wages? what does it mean to be trajectory of wages? if you get a job, terrific. but what is the prospect? what is the mobility of your opportunity? it is more complex. mike: will i keep my job, are we beyond that question? >> i don't think we are. you're seeing these distorted mike a place companies. a business model where you're going from opportunities that seem like, i will be involved in a collective, but wait businesses are turning those into for-profit models and changing everything. these are the ubers -- tom: how do all those fancy

pants, fancy words industries affect the average american? they are removed from your world, is what i would suggest. >> they are changing our world and we don't know the answers yet. what you have to do is create a taxonomy of stakeholders around these do business models. a lot of these business models will be built around trust and governance. so we don't know the answers yet in terms of what it means. tom: very good. we get ready for a job stay. how about a twitter question. mike mckee had a list of 17 twitter questions he wanted to ask. how about this basic 1 -- please, tweet us. stay with us, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, gold down seven dollars, really sitting on support. that will need to be watched carefully as we go to the greek referendum on monday. let's go to our top headlines. vonnie: iran nuclear dear isn't in place yet, but officials are talking about how it would work. the chief of the yuan atomic agency is in iran today. -- u.n. atomic agency is in iran today. a meeting with iran's president is ahead. finalizing a deal to keep iran from building nuclear weapons. the meetings are focusing on how inspectors could make sure iran lives up to an eventual deal. shares of electrolux down as much as 11% in europe. u.s. government is suing a swedish company to keep it from buying general electric's appliance unit. the lawsuit claims acquisition

would hurt consumers. steve wozniak says the trailer for the upcoming steve jobs movie gets one thing wrong, but that's ok with him, it is hollywood. the trailer has his character played by seth rogen confronting jobs and accusing him of hogging the credit for their creations. he said that never happened, but he doesn't mind. he said the trailer mostly gets it right. steve jobs opens in october. and those are the top headlines. tom: i honestly think it is friday. i'm sorry, my brain -- mike: it is jobs day. vonnie: everything else about the day is friday. mike: we thought about saluting. tom: it is the fourth of july bow tie. but we have coming up we will look at the jobs report, trying to go beneath the headline data into some of the cultural aspects and the importance of this report to janet yellen. we can't ignore greece and

puerto rico, and we will continue that discussion. on to the important talks about tehran. this is on the back burner, but many telling me this is by far the most important story on iran. the most important story for you is trying to get out of laguardia this afternoon. vonnie: the justice department has opened an investigation into airline collusion. nearly 40 years after deregulation, our airlines sick really agreeing to limit secret -- see capacity? american, united southwest, they're all certainly agreeing to cooperate with the justice department. tom: are we surprised? mike: no. so-called secret agreement? airlines have been saying we're trying to cut capacity because for years analysts have been telling them to cut capacity to make money. they're making money because their fewer seats. vonnie: even analysts are saying this is a little bit out of left field. i want to read the response from the airline body --

tom: good luck with this. bring up the southwest air chart, which is a moonshot only exceeded by alaska air. they have persisting cash flow, they're minting money. i don't know where to put my luggage. i'm sorry, just like you said they planned this. mike: southwest has done well all throughout so they're continuing to do well, but some of the airlines now falling back in recent months not only because fuel prices have gone up, but because, hey, we're making money, let's add more seats. analysts have been worried they would go back to overcapacity and then the profits go down. tom: high and low for the world's worst airline stories,

and we chose erika carp. what is your worst airline story? >> where do i start? two days for a layover between east coast and west coast. i would much rather travel to shanghai or singapore than to chicago. tom: but the international flights are a lot less painful than most of mystic. >> the problem is you can't just hop on a flight anymore if you want good conditions or pricing. you have to plan so far in advance. tuesday at 3:30 is probably the best time to book a flight. they're wondering why this has become an issue for the department of justice. we did see eight airlines become four since 2008 and those were approved. >> can you blame companies to some degree to work together in the context where they're allowed to and regulatory environment? face it, copies working with the public sector, doesn't work so well -- companies working with

the public sector, doesn't work so well. i think we'll see more types of corporate the corporate collaboration as we see these other business models evolve. how do they get it done? working with the government or each other? tom: maybe the pendulum has swung too far. vonnie: jetblue put out a statement saying they were not being included. tom: very good, jetblue collusion-free. mike: i want my peanuts. tom: coming up, alan krueger a princeton university on job state. alan krueger as well on the interesting dilemmas facing greece this weekend. stay with us in europe and greece and across america, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." jobs day in america. much going on in europe. let's get to a morning must-read. mike: you're worried about iran, worried about greece, worried about puerto rico. i will give you something to worry about. and economist tyler callan are noting the greatest threat to planetary extinction is asteroid strikes. there is a million of them out there. we only know about 1000. a large asteroid hitting the earth is a relatively low probability event, it's a very high death event. you could push them out of the way. if you sell the george clooney movie, you could send up a

nuclear bomb and blow them up. it too can do it if you don't know where they are. -- but you can't do it if you don't know where they are. the 1908 asteroid destroyed an area larger than the boroughs of manhattan. they say that could happen again. vonnie: tom is about to make a smart comment about that. tom: i am speechless. >> i am wondering if it has anything to do with the success of "jurassic world." mike: it is a reminder of what happens. vonnie: it is a relatively low probability. what does that mean? mike: you're as likely to die from an asteroid hit as a plane crash because more people will die -- fewer people will get hit by an asteroid. tom: we have a lot of gloom and worry, yet the u.s. economy keeps going -- and europe is

prospering around the gloom of greece. mike: just when things start to go well, that is when the asteroid is going to hit. tom: there you go, and asteroid. >> how much time do we worry about? tom: we're going to get to 7:45. we have important programming for you sunday evening bloomberg television. 6:00 p.m. eastern time, copper ins of coverage of the greek referendum -- comprehensive coverage of the greek referendum. all we know on athens. stay with us "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance" jobs thursday. our top headlines. vonnie: there will not be any

more negotiations over greece until sunday's referendum. the survey shows that 47% up greeks leading towards the yes -- leaning towards the yes vote. 43% favor no. the greek finance minister spoke with guy johnson about the creditors proposal. varoufakis: if we sign that agreement, in six months, 12 months will we will -- we will be closer to grexit. so i am not going to put this question to people because of you were asking me do i want greece in the euro? absolutely yes. the people want me to stay in the euro. the referendum is about how to achieve that. vonnie: varoufakis also said he will quit as finance minister if voters do not support the government's position" and vote no. puerto rico's money crisis is

easing but it is far from over. it made$2 billion in payments yesterday. the islands governor has signaled trouble earlier this week when he said puerto rico might need to delay some payments. the government and has agencies harare $72 billion in debt. republican candidates announced president obama's latest move on cuba. senator ted cruz said the president was continuing a policy of unconditional surrender to cuba. president obama acknowledged the castro regime. president obama: nobody expects cuba to be transformed overnight, but i believe american engagement to her embassy, our businesses, and our people is the best way to advance our interests and support for democracy and human rights. vonnie: cruz and senator marco rubio who are both cuban-american say they will try to block senate confirmation of

a u.s. ambassador. facebook is looking for a way to lure premium content away from you too. facebook will begin sharing ad revenue from companies that post videos on a social network. it is part of a new feature that suggests clips to users. the u.s. has formally requested the extradition of seven international soccer officials arrested and switch went. -- in switzerland. they all worked for fifa soccer 's governing body. that extradition request took a while. tom: i guess they cannot go through jfk to say the least. can they come to the united states? vonnie: the x edition request will sort that one out. they want them to come to the united states -- the extradition request will sort that one out. tom: let's go to jobs day. it is jobs thursday. it is the consensus of a good american economy generating

millions of jobs. there is a deep division over the quality of those jobs. what they mean for our common good. we are a service sector society with service sector jobs. that can be good or most challenging. erica car is cornerstone capital chief executive officer. she thinks of the big picture. she speaks and big words but really it all comes down to the new inequality. trickle-down economics. did it work? erica: in pieces it did. anyone who gives absolute answers is not talking about the whole picture. when you think about getting a job, when you think about globalization, there are very mc icro effects on the world. in the final analysis, when it comes to a job it is about you. mike: what kinds of jobs are we going to see going for it? tom calls them service sector but that is a wide range from coders who make a lot of money

to fast food workers. erika: it is a huge range. when we are talking about jobs we are talking about no prospects for education, training, mobility. that's not the kind of jobs we need to create. by the way, it appears we do have the creation of high-value jobs. we can't fill them. the issue is do we have structural onus unemployment? when the report comes out, we will look at the nature of the jobs and many looking to see what is the participation rate? there are a lot of the questions. vonnie: what are you looking for? 233 might be consensus. erika: we are thinking if it is not consensus, it might be upside. again, it is about the quality of those jobs any opportunity. vonnie: how to use decide if there are structural elements? erika: what you can look at is the evolving nature of industry, of different sectors. so those service sector jobs,

are they jobs in finance and technology or jobs in the restaurant industry? jobs in retail that may be are not as appealing. then you have to go down to the company level and see which companies are creating the future employees, educating them hiring, training them thinking about things like succession planning and future consumers. good job creation is incredibly stimulative economically. tom: are we in the virtuous loop yet. do you see it? mike: getting close. we have not got under that hamster wheel. you are in the allocation of capital business. the imperative for ceo's his to do more with less. keep from hiring people if you can. does that ever enter into your calculations? you talk about it being great for the economy if they do hire. erika: i do not want to keep from hiring people that will be

productive, especially in the field of finance. i job we create an finance stimulus a lot of other jobs. a job we create working at mcdonald's maybe not so much. if ic can hire people i know that we productive, and i'm trying to drive revenues and profits, i want to hire. tom: do you see investment policy by governments spurring jobs for people who did not take finance? basic americans are going, i still have not seen the fair trade argument of secretary clinton or what the republicans are saying. when do they get their turn? erika: i do not know the answer to that. i do not think we have the policies we need to really stimulate the job creation -- tom: this is important. germany is front and center with greece. part of the german might was in the crisis, germany said, no, we are not laying people off. mike: they did change the rules to make it easier to lay people off which stimulate people to

hire people because then they had the protection of being able to get rid of them. not to the extent we do in the united states. tom: they did it to people on the job thing, right? mike: the 35 hour work week, so you cannot work more than that. if there was work to be done you had to hire more people. mixed reviews on that from economists. erika: didn't the germans add flex ability? mike: the idea that you can get a read of workers when you do not need them is the key issue. erika: but they always had that wonderful a producer program. tom: -- an apprenticeship program. can we do that? can we do apprenticeships? mentally, it is not there. erika: this is where interesting business model innovations come in. less silos, less rigidity, and also thoughts about compensation to be able to do it.

so, it is a structural question. it is a matter of having the force of will and the corporate sector to do it. tom: michael porter says the same thing, but where is the action around those words? erika: the boards of directors the ceo's have to say, ok, these are structural issues. whether it is education, health care, infrastructure, climate change, economic inclusion these are the big issues that have to be dealt with at the boards. tom: what i noticed in the chubb/ace merger yesterday is that we will be -- the first year. that is what boards are thinking about is the financial. erika: i think it is starting to change. whether it is the clinton global initiative we are starting to go to the board level and say, you know what? we are going to hold you responsible. whether you see changes and proxy access or governance issues, the boards will be held accountable to a greater degree. some are progressive.

vonnie: erica carper continues with us for the entire hour. putting the u.s. employment picture in perspective. we will show you how the picture compares to what is happening in greece and puerto rico. bloomberg will provide special coverage of the greek referendum starting sunday starting at 6:00 p.m. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. michael mckee and vonnie quinn with me. futures up 3. the euro at 1.1076. our single best chart. vonnie: the story of three different nations, to nations and a commonwealth. look at the yellow circle is where the u.s. and greece cross. its diversions from that point when it comes to the unemployment rate. greece didn't recover. we did. puerto rico did not exactly make a big recovery, either. see that? tom: there are challenges there. you have got the puerto rican economy -- what is amazing to me, i did not know this, we had a 10% on a planet rate when greece had a 10% unemployment

rate. mike: and puerto rico still has over 10%. what is even more remarkable is the labor force participation rate in the united states, it is in the 60's. in puerto rico it is 40%. tom: why is that? is it the wage differential. mike: probably the fact that puerto ricans can move to the united states easily, so they cannot-- you can't find a job you leave. vonnie: you know who has done research on this? mike: alan krueger. tom: when you and i talked to chuck todd and he talked about the politics of orlando which completely affects the state of florida with a very large puerto rican population there because of the ease of coming to the united states. i look at that chart and i learned, i did not know the persistency of unemployment in puerto rico versus the united states. mike: the economy has not grown there since 2007. tom: this would be the number one story we would have if we did not have greece.

let's get the top photos. a jobs thursday. vonnie: number three, while the tsa missed 95% of explosives and weapons during undercover security test it does not let cold hard cash go by unnoticed. in deep twitter trouble after tweeting this photo of a passengers bag. it has $75,000 in it. so, i was wondering about this. above $10,000 is illegal but only if you're traveling internationally. you can carry anything you want. tom: so the $200,000 i took in suitcase last week? mike: i was hoping that was a carry on. vonnie: number two in beverly hills california peta protesters protested. others held signs that read "bag

cruel crocodile skin." three animals killed for one bag. tom: but python is big now. vonnie: it is always big. i think i saw a python dress. leopardskin tom. i think that would suit you. tom: they have taken it from fur. i do not have a strong opinion on this. other then, i guess that is what it is and they are doing it. vonnie: certainly very graphic. number one in mexico, ramirez created a donald trump pinata complete with his signature coif. " because of the hated -- the hatred trump expressed to the mexican people." tom: this is not a one-off. this is really continuing. vonnie: he is threatening to sue univision for pulling the -- mike: everybody is putting out.

nobody wants to be associated with him. vonnie: he's very litigious, trump. he is known for his quickness to litigate. tom: we have got a lot coming up for you. our guy johnson speaking with mr. varoufakis earlier today. a very important conversation. you may not know is but s amaras was prime minister of greece for a number of years. all of that coming up. stay with us worldwide and in europe, this is bloomberg "surveillance" ♪

tom: a good jobs morning. our top headlines. vonnie: at least 36 people are dead after a ferry accident in the philippines. it happened in rough waters. there were 173 people aboard. rescuers are searching for 19 people. 100 passengers swam to safety or were rescued by fishing boats. apartment rents are at a record high. rentals rose 1% in the second

quarter to an average of $1100 a month according to the real estate data firm. rentals have surged in the wake of the foreclosure crisis. and andy warhol's $1.00 bill raked it in. remember this from yesterday? it netted $33 million at sotheby's. now word on who the buyer was. tom: i always guess steve:. -- steve cohen. it is quite beautiful, i thought that we have to move to iran. vonnie: it is on the radar because envoys have agreed on the so-called snap back mechanism or a way of free imposing sanctions in case of iran cheating of whatever promises it made on inspections. the u.n. atomic energy group

will meet with rouhani today. this access mechanism, what will a involved -- what will it involved? >> we do not know yet. right now we have the head of the u.n. atomic energy group in iran. he was having meetings with the national security council and with the iranian president and what they are trying to work out is what is the access going to be for u.n. inspectors to military sites and cases where the united nation feels it has any suspicions about past military work. so access is one of the major sticking points, and the united states has said, we are not going to any old military site. these are the ones we have specific concerns about. so that has yet to be worked out. the fact that he's there in th

ehran shows that real progress is being made. they are trying to get somewhere. mike: progress is being made but in agreement in vn, will that play in washington and tehran -- an agreement in vienna. will that play in washington and tehran? indira: we do not have an agreement yet. they have given themselves until july 7. nothing is agreed until everything is a great. we do not have that piece of paper but you are right. if they thought sealing the deal was hard, imagine how hard it will be selling the deal in the two major capitals, particularly in washington. congress will have 30 days to review the deal. and you know, there is going to be a real fight ahead for president obama in explaining why this deal is good for the american people and for national security throughout the whole region. vonnie: they gave themselves

until next tuesday. can they extend that again? indira: they can do anything they want. this is the five permanent members of the security council plus germany and iran. at this point, they are trying to get it done by tuesday. they may get it done sooner. what is important is the today the foreign minister from each of the countries have gathered in vienna in the hotel behind me for ongoing talks. the only one not here is the russian prime minister, but he is ready to come back. we have seen little developments. an irannian official told us yesterday they have worked out the draft text of most of the agreement. but with a lot of brackets. and that is being discussed at the political level. progress is being made, but as the jurymen -- the german foreign minister told us, the most difficult problems are left to be worked out.

tom: thank you. essay can come out on greece and they can go viral. there is an important morning must-read. vonnie: you can see it there. "why the greek bailout failed." here's a quote. " six at -- baylor programs are sobering. if a debt bailout program requires a wholesale change in a country's economic social, and political model, the best course of action might be to write of the private losses rather than pour in public money to cover them "' ." it requires a bespoke program from the imf along with an agreement from the country itself. tom: i thought it was at the heart of his classic blook. t--- book. private debt is what everyone ignores. mike: the problem is talking

about who is to blame is a problem that will have to wait because greece is on the brink. it does not matter who is to blame. it matters what they do to fix it. tom: may i say with your work michael mckee, that this is a quadratic function, and what we are missing is we have to get from monday to wednesday. and it will be harder to get from wednesday to friday. and even harder for the greek people lined up at atm's to get from friday to monday. this is moving rapidly. mike: we have got to get from the referendum to july 20 from the payment to the ecb is due. they may actually default. here is the problem. there is no money in the greek banks. headline came out --varoufakis said there is no problem with the banks. seconds later, a headline from the eurogroup leader says the big problem in greece is the ba nks. they are barely able to meet the demand. what happens in that two or

three week period? tom: and there is no fuel for emergency vehicles. vonnie: more troublingly, -- druaggs it's difficult to get access to them for people who need them. you need the backing, the believe of the people. that is what will be wrong with this week. tom: what we are trying to do is bring you the voices that matter for the people of greece. you heard our discussion with mr. varoufakis. coming up smamaras. he was the roommate of papandreou at amherst college. mike: and a popular prime minister. could he come back? tom: let's look at the foreign exchange report. the euro weakening through the week. 1.1074. the swiss franc breakthrough and

weakens against the euro this morning. it is job stay. -- jobs day. alan krueger and bill gross will join us on bloomberg "surveillance" ♪

>> this is bloomberg "surveillance"

tom: greece tries to get him monday. we speak with the finance minister varoufakis. in this hour, the opposition speaks on greece's future. it's jobds day. yellen will react. the minimum wage in puerto rico is of maximum value. goo morning, everyone. this is bloombergd "surveillance" live in new york. it is thursday, july 2. with me funny quinton and michael mckee. this is an important interview with -- vonnie clinton and michael mckee. mike: if the government falls next week, who takes their place? tom: that will be a key focus. right now let's get to our top headlines. vonnie: speaking of that referendum, the latest poll says the bailout referendum on sunday is too close to call. the survey shows 47% of greeks leaning towards voting for it. but 43% say they will back the

government's position and vote no. the greek finance minister spoke this morning with guy johnson about the creditors plan. mr. varoufakis: if we sign that agreement that was offered by the institutions, in six months, we will be closer to insolvency, even closer to grexit. so i am not going to put discretion to people because of your asking me, do i want greece in the euro? absolutely yes. the people want us to stay in the euro. the referendum is about how to achieve that. by accepting -- i don't think so. vonnie: varoufakis says he will quit if voters approve the cutbacks called for in the referendum. coming up in a moment, we will speak with guy johnson and athens about his interview with the outspoken finance minister. this morning's jobs report could be a factor in where interest rates are headed. we will get to june implement figures in 90 minutes.

a strong report wedding courage federal reserve policymakers who may be leaning towards raising rates in september. the median forecast in a survey says 233,000 jobs were creator last month. we will have that dado as soon as it is issued. 8:30 eastern. investigators want to know if airlines in the u.s. are colluding to drive up prices. american southwest says the justice department as is for details from conversations about the supply of seats. that is a crucial factor in determining prices. a democratic senator asked for the investigation. >> holding down supply, economics 101, that is a violation of law if it is misuse of market power. vonnie: an airline trade group says the mystic -- domestic fares are down. payapal is getting into the money transfer business. it is paying money to get xoom.

paypal will be spun off later this month from ebay. the u.s. women's soccer team will face japan and the world cup finals. japan was tied with england 1-1 in the semi-final last night. when an english player trying to put the ball away she kick it into her own goal. the rematch -- is a final won by japan 8 years ago. fox says that ratings are up 45%. a goal. -- a tragic goal. tom: is the u.s. favorite against japan? mike: we came into the tournament ranked ahead of them but they did beat us last time. vonnie: we are going to want blood in return. tom: on jobs day. we will get to the american economy and a bit. greece is front and center this

morning. it is thursday in athens. they need to get to monday. guy johnson spoke with mr. varoufakis moments ago and moving markets. what i notice is he seem to be talking to the world or to euruope in -- in europe in general. is varoufakis supported by the greek people? guy: pulling was a just that half of the greek people, it points to effect that this is a tight vote on sunday. the no camp is with -- is neck and neck with the yes campaign. he has a decent support base. he likes to think he is a man of the people. he rides around athens on his motorbike. he did tell me he is to stand in line with the people and take out his 60 euros a day. tom, at the moment he is very much putting his faith in the

hands of the greek people. if there is a yes vote, monday night you will not be finance minister? varoufakis: i will not. guy: this is make or break for you. varoufakis: i will help whoever is to get through the greek parliament. guy: he is saying i'm putting my hneck on the line. on his blog he pointed out that debt restructuring remains a critical part of this process. he got anatomical when it comes to the story. he says arm would rather come off than not sign some sort of a deal. you worked out a deal without the organization -- varoufakis: no, i prefer to cut my arm off. guy: so that is a pretty big red line. varoufakis: since i can

remember. tom: i look at what is going on. guy: skin in the game. tom: michael mckee, what i have noticed is two hours ago standard & poor's modeling aggressive. -- modeling a grexit. they are going to what a rating agency would go through. completely opposite of what everybody wants, which is a drachma. mike: 20% decline in gdp within four years. varoufakis if he goes, does not make it easier for the europeans to negotiate because they do not like him. if the vote goes the wrong way for the government are people talking about what happens next in terms of who these the country -- who leads the country? guy: one would have to assume that you would -- mr. varoufakis told us. it would be interesting to hear what mr. samaras has to say

about the subject. the other thing to note about the interview is that mr. varoufakis he would i expectf there is a yes vote, for the deal on the table, that they would actually turn round and sign that deal with a little bit of wiggle here and there. i think we are framing this the wrong way. we need to look at this and say that the yes vote, we get a deal signed by greece. tom: we could do a six-hour "surveillance" this morning. later on we will have alberto on greece. bill gross will attend after the 8:30 jobs report. now alan krueger, he has advised president obama on jobs. he informs on the minimum wage. right now alan kruger on the trilemma facing greece.

there is restructuring, debt forgiveness, and of course this idea of a greek depreciation. the home at all area and says we are going to see that -- mohamed el-erian says we'll see that. >> the best case scenario would be a new government, a yes vote and a new government. so far i think the current government has made her problems much worse. mike: how much do they need what the current government wants debt relief? and how much of it is reform of the way the economy works? alan: they need both. they do not need debt relief and medially. and the debt relief will come in the form of extending the duration of th securities theye owe and inflating it over a long time. that is one scenario. they have had a gigantic internal devaluation. wages have gone way down.

it is not greatly increase the competitiveness. their export prices -- tom: you see them suffering. the video we are seeing there is a real deterioration in what i will call the mood of the people. vonnie: exactly. and varoufakis saying he is going to resign. it is hardly news. he would have to resign of people vote against what he is suggesting. this current sort of government situation, they are not being very, they are not meeting creditors halfway, but that is our mandate. austerity has been too difficult. so how do you circle that square? alan: i think they need to live up to the terms the previous government had agreed to. and i think they have followed a reckless path. we've seen improvement after tti me in spain and portugal and italy. i think greece could follow the same path of it stays in the

eurozone. it is going to be a difficult path but the path they have chosen with capital controls which i think is going to be a very long time before they're able to lift them -- vonnie: it was not their choice. they had to. alan: it was their choice to hold this referendum. it was their own goal. they chose to call the referendum at this time. and that is what led to the current crisis. vonnie: alan krueger sticks with us for the entire hour. coming up, we are joined by the former prime minister of greece. bloomberg television will provide special coverage starting at 6:00 eastern. our global resources will bring the results as they come in as well as market reaction. ♪

tom: greece in crisis. we heard earlier from mr. varoufakis. we speak to the political leader in opposition to tsipras and varoufakis. the former prime minister of greece. mr. samara, good mourning for you and pop andrea were grimaced -- you and were pop and rail -- papandreou were roommate.

antonis samaras: what we have to do is fight for the yes in the sunday referendum. monday will be another day. we are focusing on winning sunday. and i'm optimistic that we will all the europeans by monday. so i believe right now what tsipras is doing is this is his last ditch attempt to drag greece out of the eurozone. he is confusing people trying to persuade them to say no. reject a painful agreement which incredibly he himself has accepted. so in the fact he is trying to blow up all bridges with the rest of europe and that is because he is ideologically blinded, unrealistic and irresponsible. tom: what futrther sacrifices can the greek people due to give comfort to the rest of europe? antonis samaras: i will tie you why i said i'm optimistic because in terms of sacrifices we had huge sacrifices and

we've proven that greece can make it. in 2 1/2 years, my government had managed to drag greece out of deficits into primary surpluses. we put greece into recovery. we stabilize the country and the economy. we can do it again, and we can help greece remain and process in the -- and prosper in the eurozone. mike: the eurozone leaders say they do not like the current government but they had a lot of problems with your government as well not following through on agreements. why did that happen? can that change? antonis samaras: well i want you to know that we've suffered a very high price for sustaining for the large, unproductive public sectors expanding at the expense of the private sector. it took 2 1/2 years to change this. you cannot swallow the pill all at once.

i believe in fact the letters themselves have done some mistakes. maybe we can talk about that another time, but i want you to know the greek people have not lost their faith in the european union and in the euro. that is the most important thing. right right now -- we are forming a yes platform, a nonpartisan, democratic umbrella for pre-reform messages. it's a por-ro-european platform and it is uniting all of the people from all political affiliations. tom: if i look at mohamed el-erian offering, saying we'll see a drachma. how would you protect the euro how can you maintain the euro against the easy path to an individual drachma? antonis samaras: it is exactly but the european leaders are also saying, even the socialist like renzi or hollande,

they are all saying that what he is putting as a pseudo-dilemma the bad europeans against the greeks is total pseudo-dilemma. it is the euro against the drchaachma. if we go back to the drchachma, this will kill agriculture -- the young people. tsipras has only said one truth, that greece will become unrecognizable and six months, and he is succeeding in that but we are not going to let him get us back into the drachma. this will kill our economy, kill the hopes of all greek people. we will win on sunday. mike: if you win, does the government have to fall, does tsipras have to resign? if he does, who takes his place? antonis samaras: we are now focused on winning. i'm sure we can talk about all that next week. i do not want to disorient take a discussion into that.

tom: we have a large audience in athens and across greece. i want you to explain to the marginal voter deciding to go yes or no. they have got a comfort with the way greece has been for decades. what would you say to them to get them to switch from no to a yes vote? antonis samaras: mike: what we are telling them is that the yes vote means yes in terms of the necessary help we need by europe at this very critical moment of our economy. we need it because europe believe it or not has given to greece more than 300 billion euros in the last decade. if we lose this money, that will not be in economy double be able to pay pensions, salaries. they will not be in economy that will be able to pay the agricultural sector. the dream ss of young people. so i'm afraid without europe, where can we go?

mr. tsipras has asked china, russia -- where we going to go, to zimbabwe or argentina? we need europe. tom: that is a good way to leave it. the former prime minister of greece. let me do a data check. equities, bonds, currencies commodities. a rick on f-- a risk on feel with the 10-year 2.44% " the euro 1.1070 churning ahead of the new slow -- flow. good morning everyone. bloomberg "surveillance" vonnie has our top headlines. vonnie: the iran nuclear deal is not in place yet but officials will talk about how it will work. the chief of the u.n. atomic agency is in iran. in a meetings with iran's president is ahead. diplomats are finalizing a deal to keep iran from building nuclear weapons but their meetings are focusing on how

sectors can make sure iran lives upt to a deal. shares of electrolux fell sharply. regulators are suing the company. the want to stop electrolux from buying general electric appliance unit. the government says the deal would hurt consumers. steve wozniak thinks the trailer for the upcoming steve jobs movie gets one thing wrong. the trailer features seth rogan. and shows steve wozniak accusing jobs of hogging the credit. he says that never happened but he thinks the trailer mostly gets it right. i'm waiting for "tom keene." tom: no. it will be amazing. i really am hoping the movie actually gets it done right. it will be interesting to see. let's move on to the jobs day. with all of the news flow, you would think there is no jobs report. there is. it is a scam. all agree on that. over time used to be overtime

logo and far away. in recent decades, it has changed. now, " managers" manage themselves into 50-60 hours of straight pay because they are managers and age are not qualify for what was a traditional labor 40-hour a week benefit. no one is more expert on this then alan krueger. he knows this game when he sees one. is it a scam where low-paying pseudo-manages to not get overtime because they are a manager? alan: i think it is absurd to say that half of americans are managers, which is what has happened with the decline in the threshold for determining who's eligible for overtime. years of neglect. the wage threshold has only increased once since the mid-1970's. mike: they are proposing doubling the salary level at which you could qualify for overtime.

but they are not changing the definition of who a manager is. what is a manager? alan: a manager has a lot of discretion. i think the manager is at the top of the organization. where the threshold was set was far too low. i think that was the intent of the law, that managers have control over other employees. it was not the typical worker. now the typical worker has been in eligible for overtime. tom: we have people making 38,000 a year working 60 hour work weeks. am i right? alan: yes. mike: and they would qualify under that. alan: now they would. tom: am i right that this is part of the puerto rico debate? mike: this is not so much in among wage. alan krueger, you study this. you came up with a paper the effect of a minimum wage when it bites. it bites in puerto rico because

the minimum wage is the same as it is on the mainland and yet it is 77% of the mean wage. alan: i am skeptical that the minimum wage has had an adverse effect in puerto rico. when puerto rico was linked to the u.s. minimum wage they had their strong as growth we have seen. they were growing as strong as the asian tigers. puerto rico's problems have occurred while the minimum wage has been reeroded. $7.25 is a low minimum wage for the u.s. one of the steps greece had was to drastically cut the minimum wage. it affects spendings. had -- it has little effect on the planet. in puerto rico's case, you would see a lot more people exiting the island or going on to disability benefits. i think it is a much more located issue. my mind was change when i worked

on that study. mike: because ann krueger who wrote the paper that puerto rico is basing reform plans on is suggesting that companies are not hard because the minimum wage is too high. alan: i think puerto rico has many other problems that i would address before we consider the minimum wage. tom: what is the number one issue? alan: their debit is-- their debt is too high. they have noncompliance with taxes. tom: which institution affects those changes? that is the heart of the matter. because they are commonwealth. we do not know who talks to whom. alan: they have quite a bit of independence and implanting their own laws. and their problems have been building for some time. i think there has been a long period of mismanagement. the government sector is too large. they do have many advantages.

they have a well-educated workforce. tom: they were a tiger at one point. alan: they were. vonnie: what has happened to productivity in the u.s.? alan: i can tell you what i was told when i asked my staff, we will know in 25 years. it's hard to read productivity growth over the short term. i wonder if we're mis-measuring output and if productivity growth is stronger than what the numbers appear. but certainly there has been a slow down. mike: that is icky question because you have george -- jeb bush and chris christie saying we can get 4% growth. is there something the government can do to affect productivity rates? alan: the government can take steps in the long run. investing in human capital, investing in research and development, having more consistency in our tax credits for research. getting rid of regulations that are not productive. i think it is wishful thinking that we will have 4% growth over an extended period, given our

demographics. those are promises people make during campaigns. tom: alan krueger from princeton. our twitter question of the day goes right to his work. are you expecting a riase -- a r aise this year? ♪

tom: it has been a most political morning. first we hear from varoufakis and then in opposition. you will see the headlines across the bloomberg terminal. mr. tsipras is looking for dignity to be maintained in

greece. >> the lead up to the pivotal referendum in greece. 47% are favoring the creditors ' plans. 43% are favoring a no vote. greece's government is favoring a no vote. >> we see no ground for further talks at this point. there will be no further talks the coming day at the eurogroup level, nor between the greek authorities in the institution on proposals or financial arrangements. we will simply wait now the outcome of the referendum on sunday. >> in greek cities, more chaos today. pensioners are crowding the few banks that are open, trying to with draw enough money to get by. puerto rico's money crisis is

easing, but it is far from over. the commonwealth made nearly $2 billion in payments. the island's governor signaled trouble earlier this week. the government has nearly $32 billion in debt. republican presidential candidates are denouncing president obama's outreach to cuba. the u.s. and cuba will reopen and the seas and diplomatic relations will resume. ted cruz says the president is continuing his policy of "unconditional surrender" to cuba. >> nobody expects cuba to be transformed overnight, but i believe american engagement through our embassy, our businesses, and their people is the best way to advance our interests -- our people is the best way to advance our interests for democracy and human rights. >> cruz and marco rubio say

they will try to block a confirmation for an ambassador to cuba. facebook is trying to luer content away from youtube -- lure content away from youtube. and the u.s. is formally requesting the extradition of seven international soccer officials arrested in switzerland. they are part of a group accused of taking more than $100 million in bribes. they all worked for soccer's world governing body fifa. tom: we will see what will happen. let me go into the bloomberg terminal right now and see the thing that binds everything together that we are looking at on this tomato with -- tumultuous thursday. michael mckee the dollar. a real move in the dollar. this is elegant.

i rarely do this. this is a textbook tenet formation. michael: a lot of people have asked fed officials if they worry about this, but their view is that it is a result rather than a cause. the dollar goes up because the monetary policy changes because the economy is better and it is not a cause of problems, so much as a follow on. tom: the dollar dynamics are there. alan krueger is with us. he has a little experience with this. did the president ever ask you about the dollar? if michelle goes to london, how will she do? alan: advisors do not talk about the discussions they had. tom: i just thought i would ask. alan: you would be surprised to know that the president's advisory is very watch lay close

the value of the dollar. tom: do we have the potential to surprise and see significant dollar strength? alan: i think it is certainly possible. michael: you look at it that way. a lot of people have wondered if we get back into an era of currency manipulation. there is no thought of that it treasury? alan: well, i would not know what they are thinking it treasury at the moment. we are seeing china move closer to a market-determined currency. that may change depending on what happens with the future in china, but i think that they are close to a market-determined currency now. tom: there we are with alan krueger. he will be with bloomberg television through the morning. let's look at the data right now. equities, bonds, currencies commodities. what a move of euro weakness over the last number of days.

oil has been weaker. that really gets my attention. i might point out that gold is critically through the .1160 level. gold is down under that level. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. it is less than an hour until the jobs report comes out. julie hyman is that the labor department in washington dc waiting for that right now. what will you be watching for in particular today? julie: of course, we will be watching the headline numbers. bloomberg surveyed economists. 5.4% on the jobless rate. those are the headline numbers. we will be focusing on wage growth.

average hourly earnings. forecasted to grow by 2.3%. is there going to be any break to the upside or the downside? there is a lot of speculation about that. we are going to be looking at jobs in manufacturing and jobs in the oil and gas sector. do we continue to see deterioration there? retail jobs have been strong as of late. i will also be focusing on other signs of slack in the labor market. looking at the participation rate, underemployment rate. there is a lot to parse through in the report. vonnie: it is thursday, for a change, because the holiday -- because of the holiday tomorrow. someone called it the "albino lobster" of payment days. julie: it will have to do with the express -- extrapolation of the jobs report to the fed.

the fed is also watching the wage growth very closely. as long as we remain a part of the recent trend on the headline number, the 200,000 or more growth that we have seen the reaction is likely going to be mostly to the wage number and perhaps some of the other slack indicators that we talked about. what does it mean for the fed? does it mean that we will see one or two increases this year or no increases? tom: julie hyman, thank you so much. with us, alan krueger. we continue our discussion on the american labor economy. i guess wages are rising. everybody tells me they are. particularly more conservative economists. a lot of americans are flat on their back. janet yellen seems to be running policy aware that a lot of americans are struggling. do you agree with that? alan: absolutely. it is hard to deny. we have had wage stagnation for the middle class for three

decades. the bottom did very poorly in the 1980's, in part because we did not raise the minimum wage and we have barely made up that ground. she is also keeping andn eye on how much pressure there is on the job market. tom: this also goes to the jobs report. if we get a bang up number, the dialogue changes, doesn't it? michael: it would give more certainty. tom: the market will price that today. michael: immediately, things will reprice. i want to get back to what you were just saying alan. the length of time wages have been stagnant. there is some structural problem here. when you were in government, was anybody talking about ways to get out of it? monetary policy is not solving the problem. alan: monetary policy can have a small effect.

if you overheat the economy, it does lift wages, but it also runs the risk of financial trouble and inflation. the president is motivated by the tremendous increase of any quality in the u.s. michael: he feels bad, but what does he do about it? alan: the president has done quite a bit. the affordable care act has done more to help struggling families get into the middle class. tax changes. michael: those are safety nets. what pushes up wages and the median household income? alan: investment in education. the president greatly expanded opportunity for people to go to community colleges and onto four -year college. the increase of pell grants. he had to rescue the economy from the financial crisis. michael: if they had not done that, we would be in much worse shape. tom: alan krueger with us here on jobs today. our twitter question of the day.

do we talk about greece, puerto rico, or do we bring it back to the american economy? are you expecting a raise this year? please give us your informed answer. it is jobs day. stay with us. ♪

tom: we welcome all of you

folks. greece in crisis. varoufakis. another important conversation happening moments ago. here is erik schatzker in athens. who did you speak to? erik: tom, i spoke to the number two man in the government, more senior than yanis varoufakis. he is alexis tsipras' chief of state. it is time to start having these what if conversations. what if the greek government loses the referendum on sunday? we just had a long conversation with pappas. first this government will not necessarily be resigning if it loses the referendum. we put the question directly to pappas. his answer was, we will be here we will see. secondly, he says the banks will reopen on monday even if there

is no deal on a new bailout with european creditors. he says it is because we will be very close to a deal. number three, this government has absolutely no plan b if creditors reviews -- refused to sit down and talk about a new bailout or refuse to increase -- or if the ecb refuses to increase liquidity to the financial system. he refused to contemplate or consider that scenario absolutely certain that the creditors will be willing to sit down regardless of which way the referendum goes. number four he absolutely categorically rules out a depositors' bail in. he said it is not even under consideration. that is the what if scenario for you from athens. i am standing in front of the prime minister's office. tom: i look at all of this and i say --m, what do the greek

people think? what have you noticed in the last 48 hours? erik: the best way to express it is look at the polls. you will recall yesterday, the no vote, the pro-government vote, was leading 47% to 37%. today, that has turned around and the yes side, the antigovernment, pro-eu side is leading in the polls 47% to 43%. there is a margin of error of three percentage points. you could call it a tossup, but all the same, it has flip-flopped against the government in favor of a new bailout package, as described by the european creditors. it looks like mr. tsipras is losing momentum. there is clearly more to come. to your point about the pain that these people are feeling you can see it. the lineups in front of the atms are getting longer today. tom: very good, erik schatzker

thank you so much. this drives forward to monday and particularly to sunday. bloomberg television will provide our important coverage of the greek referendum beginning sunday at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. we will combine our of our -- all of our global resources. we will also get the market reaction on the asian markets opening on sunday evening. all of that on bloomberg television on sunday. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." michael mckee with me. here is vonnie. vonnie: 36 people are dead after a ferry accident in the philippines. there were 189 people on board whenthethe the ferry capsized. more than 100 passengers swam to safety or were rescued by fishing boats. a real estate data firm says rents grew to an average of more than $1100 per month.

construction has not significantly increased vacancy. viewers of a michigan public access show got quite the shock. >> since my last show ended in december, i have been itching to host a talk show. my new theater is not ready yet, but so i decided to head over to munro, michigan. vonnie: former comedy central star stephen colbert and his crew take over a studio in monroe michigan. he interviewed locals and then chatted with michigan native marshall mathers eminem. those are your top headlines. [laughter] tom: whoever thought that up --anti-branding, anti-marketing. vonnie: one of the genius minds of the day, he really is. eminem and colbert. tom: that is the real eminem. vonnie: the real eminem. the real slim shady.

tom: michael mckee and adam kruger -- alan krueger. michael: the market reaction to the jobs report is going to be when and how far the fed might go. one big debate whether rising rates will be good for the economy. do they slow growth or do they boost growth? a question for alan krueger. where do you come down? alan: i think they typically have a small effect of slowing growth with a bit of lag. in this case, because we have been on 04 so long, i worry about the market overreaction. there may be more market volatility when they start to get off of zero. i suspect they will move very slowly. i suspect that if the bank regulators ease up on credit even with interest rates rising housing is going to still be very affordable and that could continue to support the recovery in housing which could help the economy overhaul. michael: the pro-raise cap says

you raise interest rates and you raise the return on capital and businesses are then in scented -- then have incentive to invest. alan: the problem is that demand has not been there. if you raise rates, it tends to discourage borrowing and consumption, which is what the u.s. economy mainly needs now. as we get closer to full employment, we do need to start normalizing monetary policy. michael: for an economy that is growing 2%, two point 5%, what is the proper interest rate? alan: we are in totally uncharted territory. we are coming out of historical financial crisis because of weakness in the rest of the world. i think the interest rate you would be looking for is lower than what you would normally expect given those statistics. tom: what about the data? you have people talking about a

new structural low-low. there are those looking at completely opposite of that. here is england are of citigroup. "the fed has stated that they do not mind running hot. if it looks like we are at full employment, the fed will be concerned about how far below the nairu they want the unemployment rate to drop." i mean, that is the other side of the coin. what is this thing nairu? is there any confidence where it is? alan: i think the concept of the nairu that there is some level of unemployment where you start to see inflation rising compared to the previous year, i think that is quite valid and one of the stronger relationships we have, although it moves around overtime. it depends on a lot of different factors. it depends on productivity growth it depends on labor

share of national income versus profit share. there are reasons why it moves around. i do worry a little bit that the fed could move too slowly because real rates are so low now. it is going to be hard for them to get rates up high enough that it will meaningfully slow the economy once they feel the need to do that. on the other hand, i also think running a little bit above the 2% target for some period of time is not the end of the world. they have been below it for so long. i think they have a lot of credibility around the 2% inflation rate. michael: would you be in the camp that predicts more than one rate raise this year? or is it too soon to tell? alan: i think september is the most likely first rate increase and that leaves room for a second one, but it should be data dependent. vonnie: would 2.4% be enough to do it for the fed? alan: i think the fed looks at a wide range of data.

given the way it is constructed, i think it is a more meaningful measure of wage pressures. i think the fed will look at this report. i don't think they have a specific threshold on wage growth from this survey. tom: i know you were not independent when you are sitting on the couch of the president in washington. you had a real mandate to advise him. his janet yellen independent? alan: absolutely. tom: you think the politics and the politics of a large part of america that is not benefiting not getting the wages, figures and? alan: the federal reserve takes its mandate very seriously. congress gives the federal reserve a dual mandate of stable inflation and maximum employment. they are trying to accomplish those objectives. vonnie: is she independent from the greek problems and emerging markets? alan: no, she is not independent

from the rest of the world. they will be very dependent on the rest of the world and its impact on the u.s. economy. their mandate does not say they need to worry about emerging markets. the emerging markets were not happy when we started to taper quantitative easing. tom: as we go to twitter, the yield goes up to 2.45%. it is just that sybil. what do we have on twitter? did anybody show up today? vonnie: are you kidding me? we were not just talking about interest rate raises. we are talking about salary raises. frank says, i am expecting a raise. less a function of the macro economy and more my market focus. michael: a good investor. vonnie: the second dancer, companies have all of the excuses to give raises and

employees consider that job security. i some more than one answer like that. third answer, yes, im. it is called a "cost of living adjustment. " tom: that is a really sophisticated answer. michael: that is all we have gotten lately. let's make that my agenda item. jobs thursday. too hundred 33,000 jobs -- 233,000 jobs. that is what is the forecast. tom: i looked at greece. our special program on sunday evening. conversations with varoufakis and pappas today. "the telegraph" had the single best quote on the tensions between berlin and brussels and the rest. if the creditors' powers have succeeded in bringing greece to its knees, they have paid a fearful price themselves.

i thought that was just a terrific quote in a terrific article from prichard last night. vonnie: absolutely. i will be looking at the trading day. the albino lobster of trading days. speaking of albino lobsters, i want to know what everybody is doing on their fourth of july holidays. michael: i'm getting on an airplane. alan: i am going to my neighbor's house. they are avid fans of your show. vonnie: will you be eating albino lobsters? alan: in new jersey, we will be having hamburgers at the friedman's house. tom: i think we will see a firework or two. new york does it up. it is great in new york. there are six ways you can see them because of the rivers and the islands. vonnie: if you are up high enough. tom: i am trying to get on a boat in the harbor. michael: the surveillance yacht

-- the "surveillance" yacht is not available? vonnie: the freedmen might have an extra spot. tom: stay with us. we have a jobs report in 32 minutes. ♪

>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. stephanie: good morning.

it is clearly almost a friday. why is it so special? not just a holiday weekend. matt: erik schatzker we will hear from him in a moment. we have a lot to talk about outside the u.s. stephanie: in the u.s., it is jobs day one day early because of the fourth of july weekend. the number is coming up in 30 minutes aired what is your guess? matt: 290. stephanie: 269. matt: we will have a number from washington, reaction from around the world. including bill gross. wait for that right after we get the number of parent stephanie: -- number. stephanie: we have a lot else going on to this morning's jobs