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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  July 2, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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to vote on greeks -- on the greek referendum. thursday,rare jobs the jobs board is out and the results are mixed. new jobs were added and wages are still stagnant. pimm: tesla takes off, jumping 52% setting a company record. ♪ we are 90 minutes into the trading day in new york so let's have a look at how markets are performing. you want to look at treasuries. olivia: we are off tomorrow for the fourth of july holiday. not a lot going on in the market
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but maybe that is a story in itself. the jobs number, headline unemployment falling to 5.3% but the participation rate -- pimm: 37 year low. olivia: and no one is getting a raise. pimm: let's take a look at the stock market. the dow jones falling a little bit more than a point. , maybe traders have already begun their long weekend. olivia: let's take a look at what is happening on the fx market. the euro relatively sanguine amid the chaos. $1.10, $1.11. i cannot figure it out, greece is on the brink and the euro has
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not blink. pimm: that is to present of gdp for the euro -- 2% of gdp for the euro. we have guy johnson and erik schatzker in greece and they have the latest. you know what the polls show? guy certainly knows what the polls show. the yes campaign has momentum. it has turned the tide and it looks like the yes campaign, will be heading for referendum. what if the government loses? i sat down with big small group of reporters and the number two man to alexis tsipras. he is formally the minister of state, and here is what he has to say when asked, what will you do if you lose?
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it depends on what happens. erik: in short, there is no plan b. the government is not even want to contemplate the possibility of a lost and what it might do under those circumstances. guys have been waiting for power for a long time and will not give it away easily. if the vote goes the wrong light, what are they going to do? erik: they refuse to see a confidence vote. guy: exactly, and we will see how they deal with that come monday morning. donnis varoufakis, i'm caught up with him and he is very much putting his faith in the hands of the greek people. if it is a yes vote, come monday
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he will not be finance minister? >> i will not. i will help whoever it is. yanis fair fox yet to go to an atm or stand in line with the greek people. solidarity could be required. erik: guy, i really want to put in a plug for your interview because you know how extraordinary it was, and is available for everyone to see on bloomberg.com. the big question for greeks is what happens to the banking system on monday? olivia: i am glad you brought that up. that is what i'm trying to figure out. you told me yesterday the banks could be closed for weeks. can they make it to july 20, which looks like the so-called dropdead date? how long n the break -- greek banks hold on? erik: i will give you the
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official version, from because i pass. he said on the record today that the banks will open monday even if there is no deal with european creditors. for what it is worth, i fail to understand how that is even possible. guy: i think monday still is a bank holiday and the banks will open on tuesday. even then, some confusion within the government. mr. varoufakis says the banks will open, the ecb will find a way. erik: with that, we will send it back to new york city from athens. olivia: that is probably the man i would like to hear from most this hour, mario draghi. everyone wants to know if the ecb is going to give more of an ela lifeline to the banks. thank you to erik schatzker and guy johnson, live in athens. pimm: it is time to meet mr.
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grexit. he is a citigroup economist and he joins us now. olivia: abraham, you here we have a new term. what do you think the outcome of this referendum will be? >> at this point, we would all love to know. previous reports, i think the momentum is on the side of the as slowed so we would expect a yes outcome. i think the other conclusion is that even a yes vote does not get us back to where we were before. banks tohe prospect of open and function normally is fairly far-fetched, even if we end up with a yes vote. pimm: i wonder if you could describe, let's say one to 10,
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10 being best, the competency of the current government of greece. >> i think that is not for me to judge. what is clearly true is that the situation has deteriorated essentially for all actors once the referendum has been called. we do see a much worse out like -- outlook, a much worse scenario. there are certainly -- it is certainly questionable if the government for saw the ramifications. pimm: if the government falls and there is a new government, what happens to the economy in the meantime? >> that is another good question. i would think a change in government would make it somewhat easier to strike a deal, which would perhaps lead to disbursement of some funds to alleviate the really acute liquidity shortages in the system. it is a question of how long that process could take, if we
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have to go through another election. that would prolong this. -- that would prolong this period of uncertainty. aboutsociate has to be the economy is going to continue to go through an immensely tough time. olivia: how long -- how likely is it that we will see a big greek bank sale? >> this is very much up to the decision of the ecb. and cutdecide to raise off greek banks from ela we think that will trigger a restructuring of greek banks. how exactly that restructuring would proceed is very uncertain. the european mechanisms, the , the ofesignation payment rules are not formally in place. they have not been passed by the greek parliament. a restructuring of the greek banks, putting them into a resolution, at this point
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bears more questions than answers. pimm: what happens if the power system of greece depends on government money? how do you pay the power company? how do you keep the lights on? >> i do not think anybody has the answers to those questions, and there are very many at this point that i think are hard to even truly comprehend. there are many issues that arise when liquidity is acute, but we have to keep in mind there are, where interim, mechanisms he thinks some degree of trade will open. i think the government will probably issue script, which will become tradable and will become somewhat of a parallel currency. one major constraint will be whatever you have to pay for imports. i think the assumption has to be that you can at most, import as much as you are exporting.
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greece will be forced to run a trade balance until i think the financing situation is eased. olivia: greek imports more than it exports and that is one of the key reasons why going to the drachma would do more harm than good. i guess maybe as a final question, do you get the sense that greeks even know what they are voting on? is the certainly i think key question, if you want to make up your mind whether they will vote for a yes or no. i think if the greek government succeeds in convincing the population that this is just about the bailout offer, then we should be expecting them to side with the nose. . by and large, even if it is short-term, should make them understand that there is really another dimension to it.
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the hope of having the banks reopen in euros at some point in the future. pimm: thank you very much mr. gr exit. sunday, bluebird television will have live coverage of the greek referendum on 6 p.m. televisionbloomberg will have live coverage of the greek referendum at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. olivia: why customers are lining up for the all electric vehicles, find out next. ♪
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♪ olivia: welcome back to bloomberg market day. i'm olivia sterns. pimm: i am pimm fox. management changes to tell you about. has named a new ceo and shares are up about 1.3%. analyst said this lessens some uncertainty. in other management changes, intel's president rene james is stepping down after nearly three decades. you can see intel shares are on the up, the best performer on the dow today. highest ranking woman wants to be ceo someplace
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else since they will not have her. eric was saul is taking flight, shares are up 9.3 quarters of a percent. it is continuing its aggressive expansion onto the other side of the world in asia, india, and indonesia. 55 retaily will open locations through 2019. .p is also moving right now it is trading at about 4.8%. company has finally said it will pay $18.7 billion, with payments two decades. this is to pay off claims from the 2010 gulf of mexico oil spill. since that accident, i want to show you the bp share price has seen some volatility. over the past few years, it is still down by about 29%, so still has a long way to go.
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olivia: that has to do a lot with the price of oil. pimm: let's take a look at some of the top stories crossing the terminal. all mixed up in june. the government says employers added 223,000 jobs last month and the jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3%. the share of working age people in the work for fell to the lowest level in nearly 37 years and wages were unchanged. here is betsey stevenson. betsy: anytime you see flat wage growth you want to take a look around and see what more we could be doing to grow wages. that is something the president has been thinking about every day for a long time now, what are the steps we can take to grow wages. pimm: retailers had the biggest job gains last month. after that, the leisure and hospitality industries. president rene james is
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stepping down. she is one of the highest ranking women in silicon valley and is ready to take on the role of chief executive somewhere else. for 28 been at intel years and will stay on until january. a 15th republican is running for president. scott walker will announce his presidential campaign plans on july 13. a walker aid says the governor will file papers with the government election commission, and a poll shows walker leading in iowa, the site of the first presidential caucuses. olivia: tesla shares up more than 2%. they beat the car sales forecast for a second consecutive quarter with a 15% surge. pimm: the company delivered 11,507 model s sedans during
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the. . they have -- during the period. they have reworked the model. joining us now to discuss tesla's sale estimates and future is cory johnson. 11,507 vehicles, is that true enough? ?etty cory: it is the company doing the prediction. i think it is most useful to look at this not just in terms of what the one quarter was. hado not know how much they in revenues and how much they lost in terms of losses for the quarter. but when we look at the growth rate, i think that is what is really important.
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the first thing is how many cars have they been able to deliver? the customer receives the vehicle and all the paperwork. that is the most they have ever sold in a quarter, and that is a good thing. the pace of increase is a little bit better than it was. i think it is useful to look not over a year-to-year basis, i think sequential's might be more useful. you see in the first quarter they had a really big gain over the fourth quarter. good,0% gain is pretty certainly better than they had last quarter. and have gone up in price, that will be good for their top line because they are selling more expensive cars than ever before. olivia: that quarterly number is super choppy. what should we read into that? bring that back again. cory: lat quarter, there may
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have been some impact from the .est coast port lockdown the result was, they could not get a lot of cars out and parts in so it may have constructed their ability to make cars. in the fourth quarter, they made a lot of changes to their vehicles and pushed some orders into that quarter, and that could be the bulk we saw in the fourth quarter. this is a story about not the most expensive car but the dream of an affordable car. i think one thing that has not been fairly well examined are the delays, or seeming delays we have seen and that model three. the company said with a first talked about the model three, it would be due in 2017. about a year later, elon musk said -- olivia: it is hard to make an electric car. is this a big deal that renee james is stepping down?
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cory: let me finish this point. the shipments of the model three seem like they are getting pushed out further and further with every announcement, and that is disconcerting. renee james, big deal. olivia: thank you for squeezing it in. we did not mean to cut you off here i. pimm: it is a very special jobs thursday. a company offers some perks such as doing your laundry. a new wave of employee benefits. ♪
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♪ the jobs report came out earlier today, showing that the economy is continuing to add jobs. employers added 223,000 jobs in the unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3%.
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olivia: those same employers are starting to lord new employees with lucrative perks such as payment of employee student loans and haircuts. on-site haircuts, that could save me some time. of the big issues that companies are facing is health care costs. when they describe some of the benefits that they are offering, a lot of them have to do with health care. health care monitoring, fitness programs being introduced into the workplace. doing your laundry, i guess after you exercise you have to have one do your laundry. the other thing is providing food on site. it keeps employees there, it keeps them focused, and in silicon valley, companies like apple and google have quite elaborate food.
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while this is being offered to employees, employers are cutting back on their health insurance schemes and are turning over the responsibility of health insurance to the employee and saying, you go and check these online exchanges for the best health care, we will provide you with the money, but you are responsible. sears,es like walgreens, they have already done this. this is going to be something that all companies will have to face, particularly when the tax on this higher-quality health plans comes will force. olivia: we get free ice cream on friday, and that just does it for me. we are fortunate enough to have an in company clinic, and that is been enormously helpful. even if you have a little scratch that you want to be if you need stitches for, it saves you the time of having to go to hospital. a huge benefit that not only
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saves me a lot of time but money. pimm: this is also ironic, because you talk about the added benefits at the same time that we say wages remain unchanged. i will say goodbye. coming up, will go to the aspen lius conference where betty will be speaking with the u.s. transportation secretary anthony foxx about infrastructure and ideas for cities of the future. that is all coming up. ♪
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♪ pimm: welcome to the bloomberg market day. i want to take a look at some of
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the top stories crossing the terminal. there has been a record multibillion-dollar settlement stemming from the gulf of mexico oil spill. billionpay almost $19 to resolve claims by the government in several states. the company can manage the payment get jewel and it will not force -- the payment schedule and it will not force bp to cut its dividend. the referendum in greece is too close to call. leading to avoters 43% favor know, and endorsement of the government's position. the government indicated it will accept some of the proposals and the greek finance minister made it clear where he will draw the line. >> you will not have a deal without the reorganization? >> i would prefer to cut my arm
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off. >> that is a pretty big red line. >> since i can remember. says is. varoufakis greece and that voting no on sunday he will quit. a managed care company is buying out one of its rivals. 17 has agreed to buy health met enehealth net, giving cent the largest market for medicaid and provides an entry into the medicare market. milk is flowing like water in the united states. there is so much, some of it is being dumped, mainly because theories cannot find enough buyers. to have a record of the past five years, but farmers still make money because of cheaper seed for their herds.
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markets are closing in europe so for the very latest, we want to go to mark r. mark: the stocks were trading higher before the jobs report. creditorse and its are like the vast and objects, these intractable objects sitting opposite each other, waiting for the big day on sunday. finance minister varoufakis is telling us he thinks greece will vote no, he will resign if this -- if they vote yes. by this, smalld moves in the european stock market. the v stocks just below the three-year high. i want to show you the three big movers in europe today, electrolux down 10%, the biggest
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fall in four years. the billion-dollar takeover of ge. is january.est rise they will pay almost $19 billion to settle claims by the u.s. in five states along the gulf of mexico related to the oil spill in 2010. rwe, the coalition of germany agreed not to introduce a --lesce the that had been pimm: mark barton in london. coming up, shale oil drillers need insurance to protect them from plummeting oil prices, but that safety net is vanishing. we will tell you how that all happened. to hundred 23,000 people were --ed to the u.s. payroll,
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200 23,000 people were added to the u.s. payroll, but is that enough to mark -- puerto rico's government reported debt unpayable. what other commonwealth's options? it is day two of the aspen ideas festival in colorado. betty liu is there. i think you have anthony foxx. betty: i do indeed. thank you so much. i do have anthony foxx, the secretary of the department of transportation at the aspen ideas festival. , whename off the stage you were talking about the future of transportation. before we get to that, i want to get to some of the news of the day. there is a hearing going on in washington, a rare public hearing on the recalls the chrysler has affected.
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chrysler has said they do not believe they should be even undergoing this, so why are you doing this? sec. foxx: our national highway traffic safety administration has a response ability to ensure that when recalls happen, that the organizations, the oems, that are called to do recalls are following the protocols properly. this hearing is about trying to get to the bottom of whether tumors have been notified properly and lots of things like that. betty: is this to try to set an example for other automakers because we have seen, in the american public, we have seen so many recalls? sec. foxx: this is a very important issue of safety in our automobile space. it is not necessarily an example as much as it is, we have 23 recalls that chrysler has been subject to recently.
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we want to make sure they are doing the things we would expect them to do. betty: they say they are. sec. foxx: that is what the hearing is about. betty: the national highway traffic fund, the deadline is coming up at the end of this month and it has gone through what, six extensions? sec. foxx: 33. betty: i must have lost count at six. what is going to happen? sec. foxx: we need to break the cycle of the short-term extensions. the are harmful to the transportation system. states and local governments are becoming more risk-averse. congress has got to come up with an answer. i think perhaps the silver lining of the current situation is that over the years, congress has used a variety of duct tape and chewing gum measures to back fill the investment. now we are out of those things so congress will have to figure this out.
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i think this is a time when we need to think big, inc. long-term, greater levels of investment. they are not at levels that allow us to maintain the system going forward right now. betty: does this include raising taxes? sec. foxx: the administration has put a proposal together that a sickly we double the inputs going into the transportation system. without raising taxes or increasing deficit by using business tax reform. we are hearing signals that may not be an acceptable approach to the majority in both houses of congress, but this is an issue, congress has got to solve this problem and we need their assistance. betty: a few days ago, bobby jindal, the louisiana governor , we cannot raise taxes to fund this bill. we have defined another
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alternative, and i think he speaks for many republicans, which is why we are in this position, right? sec. foxx: we cannot starve ourselves. when lincoln built the transcontinental railroad, that was a big, old idea paid for by the country, and the country benefited. those systems are not as well maintained so we have to build for a country that is growing for 70 million people and at the same time fix potholes and repair bridges. betty: you are just speaking about the future of transportation. a few feet from us, there is toyota, demonstrating their fuel-cell technology. there is electric cars. we are talking about driverless automobiles. what should the government be putting money behind? sec. foxx: i think there are two issues. we are always engaged in research, looking at different ways to move people and aims.
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-- and things. fuel will continue to be an area where we are focused. i think in terms of connected vehicles, we have an investment in the safety that that technology can provide us by having cars that can see accidents before they happen. tech firms and detroit, they are andng up with great ideas we have to be nimble enough to understand how those ideas can marketplaceo the safety -- safely. send the signal to industry that they have good ideas, we want them, and we want them to get to the marketplace. betty: secretary foxx, thank you for joining me. i'm going to toss it back to you. pimm: thank you very much, betty liu. still ahead on the bloomberg
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market day, look out below, the shale industry safety net is about to give way. how our shale oil drillers may be losing their biggest asset this year. ♪
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♪ pimm: welcome to the bloomberg market day. i am pimm fox. i want to begin with some of the top stories. in eastern tennessee, about 5000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes after a train derailment. a car filled with toxic inflammable gas went off the train -- off the track. officers were hospitalized after breathing in the fumes. the largest spanish language
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broadcaster in the united states is going public. filing,n, in its ipo said it has the youngest demographic in the u.s.. about 57 million people are in the spanish-language market. markthan six years ago, zuckerberg tried to buy twitter and there is speculation he may try again. they say he is considering whether to buy twitter, citing sources. those are your top stories. we just want it to -- want to take you to the end the annual -- the annual aspen ideas festival. betty liu spoke to david rubenstein and asked him what he thought of the jobs report.
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david: it is the lowest unemployment rate we have had in years. why is it so low? dissipation ofer 62.6%, the lowest since 1967. that reflects the fact that a lot of older people have retired after losing their jobs. a lot of younger people cannot get jobs so they are living with their parents or going to graduate school. parents are issued -- are anxious to get children out of the house. there is that problem. it seems like even the housing is recovering. we see the stock market, they are shaky, the shakiest have been in quite some time. we have not seen that liftoff in the economy.
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you are doing great business, but we have not seem the liftoff -- we have not seen the liftoff. david: it may not be the case that we are going to grow at 4% or 5% after recession. typically we have one every seven years for about nine months, and they have 4% or 5% growth afterwards, but now we are used to 3% 4%. i do not think we will see a liftoff as high as we would like. what 3% growth is i think we will get for the year, and we should be comfortable with that. the real issue is whether greece will have a spillover into the economy and whether we will have a recession again. we have them every seven years ago, after world war ii, with the last recession ending 2009. one? -- areedo for
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we due for one> david: at some point we will have a slowdown again. we should expect some slowdown at some point. betty: warren buffett likes to say to have a moat, have a buffer of protection. do we have a moat big enough to reject us from events like greece? david: the united states is not as involved in greece as europe is. i do not think we have a sub prime crisis or anything brewing. when recessions come, you do not usually know what will cause them. i do not see the spillover effect of greece on the united states economy to be very big. i suspect there will be an agreement, probably within the next 10 days or so. betty: an agreement between the troika and the greeks? yes, because whatever the
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referendum outcome is, something will have to get done. cannot run an economy if they are not part of the eurozone. no, ands greeks vote eventually there is no deal between the troika and the greek government, and greece leaves the euro, is that armageddon? david: i would not say it's armageddon. greece is 2% of the gdp of the eu. it will have some spillover effect and i think it is being recognized by the eu leaders that it is better to resolve this. want tonk they do not have a spillover effect on other economies, which are somewhat weak. i think a deal will be worked out, but it is not going to be pretty. i think something will get done after the referendum. liu: that was our own betty
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speaking with david rubenstein. the safety net protecting shale oil producers, that is about to give way. before the dip in prices, shell companies just out billions of dollars in insurance to guarantee them a minimum price of $90 a barrel. payments account for more than 15% of their first-quarter revenue. the insurance is about to expire, and for the effect it will have, i want to bring in ashley loder. ashley: thank you. pimm: explain this idea, you are a shale oil producer, you see the opportunity to lock in a price. keep in mind, most of these countries spend more than they take in.
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today, with oil prices at 58, they cannot do that so they are cashing in the hedges but the hedges will start to run off as the year goes along, and we have seen revenue go down 32%. , as you these hedges say, continued to expire in the futures market, what does that mean for the oil shale producers? do they close up shop? >> they are very dependent on their lenders in the graces of the capital markets right now. one of the things that is happened is they have to have these hedges on for a lot of their lenders to continue to extend them a credit line. lenders might reduce the credit line, saying they might not be highto have the credit as as when the $90 a barrel. barrel,w we are $58 a that is $30. >> it is a big difference.
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one of the producers said, we have hedges for $90 a barrel. do we wish we have more? heck yeah, we do. pimm: thank you. still ahead on the bloomberg market day, more on the markets but also the crisis in the eurozone and greece. remember to watch the vote on sunday on bloomberg tv for live coverage of the greek referendum. out?hey in, are they starting 6:00 p.m. eastern, only on bloomberg. ♪
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♪ pimm: it is time now for today's options insight. >> we are approaching the top of the hour so let's take a quick look at how the major averages are performing. we are seeing the major averages turn into the red for the first time today. the dow is down by .15%.
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the nasdaq is down by a third of a percent. earlier, they had been up nearly 1% on employment data. optionsme for today's insight is mark sebastian, founder of option. let's talk about the vicks. said,nt over a note and over the past half year it is been averaging 15.14%. why is that a concern? >> is the first increase since 2008. 2014, and those have been lower than the previous years. 2015, we are averaging about 15.15, that is a serious increase. highs. is near all-time we have not seen it selloff but we have seen the insurance prices increase. >> you are flabbergasted that it
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is below 60%. why do you think it is not hire? >> leading into this great thing, and puerto rico. we ignored china on the rally up and we probably will ignore them in this loss as well. weekend, betting the s&p will move about 1% over the next 30 days is crazy. looking at the straddle in the s&p 500, it is priced about $40. that itet is betting will only move about $40. we move more than that on monday. i think the vicks is risk fromng systemic greece and puerto rico. >> what is your trade? >> going into this weekend, i think i can make a pretty inexpensive bet on volatility increasing. i can buy the fix at about the
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$16 call and sell the $21 call. now it is trading a little over one dollar. i think that is a pretty decent that against what might happen over the weekend. a dollar to bet that greece is going to screw up, i think that is a pretty cheap that. bet.eap >> you do not expect a rate hike in 2015. what do you tell people who say it is going to come in, in september? >> unless the fed has been having all of their meetings in colorado, i do not think they will be raising the rate. 2016nk they can raise in but until we see some real wage inflation and goods inflation, i think the fed should be inclined to sit on their hands. there is just the reason for it. that is why we may rally into
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the back half of the year, rising volatility and a rising market is usually a sign that the geek is up and we are getting near the top -- the gig is up and when you're getting near the top. ofdo you have any forecast how many basis points will come through? >> the yield curve has kind of righted itself. a lot of traders were worried we would have a yields curve that looked like this, with rates high in the front and pretty even. a quarter basis point. >> thank you so much for joining us. there will definitely be much more bloomberg market day after this very, very short break. ♪ .
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:00 a.m. in san francisco, noon in new york and 7:00 p.m. in athens. >> the u.s. economy at 220 3000
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jobs for the month of june, that wages stagnated, more people left the workforce. we go inside the numbers. pimm: greece prepares for a crucial vote on sunday and the finance minister tells us he will quit if the country votes yes. greeks say they are so confused i do not know what they are voting for. >> puerto rico facing a debt crisis, what the u.s. government can do to help the island struggling economy. ♪ pimm: good afternoon, i am pimm fox. olivia: let's begin with where the markets are trading. equity markets not doing a whole lot unusual for a job stay. we moved job stay to, maybe traders are already headed for

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