>> down to a referendum. two days ago under the bailout. polls show it is a race to close to call. anna: chinese stocks head to the worst route and 1992. a new wave of selling, the government's investigating partial regulation. etna is setting an agreement to buy humana. >> welcome to countdown, welcome to athens. i'm guy johnson.

anna: and a warm welcome here in london, i am anna edwards. breaking news on greece. bloomberg is publishing exclusive polling on the referendum on sunday. it shows that greeks are in line with other polling we've seen recently -- split down the middle. two days before the vote. just to give you details, the question that was asked, how will you vote in the referendum? will you ratify the agreement was tot? 43% say no. the nos are ahead by half a percentage point. very close, too close to call. does this get as close to resolution? if that were the referendum result, we will have to see. guy can talk us through more of it whether the greeks see a

better teacher in the euro or out, it is clear we see the population very much in favor -- 81% saying they want to stay in. it seems to me the creditors are not able to say this is about membership. we have discrepancies between opinions based on what you ask. let's leave that for a moment. we'll come back to athens. let's start with a look at what's happening in the chinese market. this is the picture in shanghai. we see another wave of selling away from those highs we saw on the end of may. the beginning of june, we saw strength all through the first half of the year coming from the shanghai composite. now we see selling, it is the strongest false and 1992. the securities regulation and china says it is investigating possible manipulation. across the market manipulation

on shortselling, in particular. more details, as we go to the program. the u.s. markets are closed today. this is where they close out the week. this is the picture we got on the market after the jobs report, more moderate pace of job creation in the previous month. this is the picture factoring in there, the limbo state we seem to be in regarding greece. we will be speaking later on here at bloomberg to the founder he will join up a little bit later on. stelios will have a lot to say on the greek story. two days to go until they vote, it is too close to call. guy johnson is in athens hans nichols is in berlin. guy, how are things looking? we have the polling data out. guy: you really hit the nail on

the head, and a. huge discrepancy between the question people ask and their views on mentorship and the euro. this emerged at the beginning of the week, we are getting increasing information of the facts. greeks are not entirely convinced they want the creditor package. if there is a yes vote, greece will sign on the dotted line. we are not sure what offer will be put ultimately before the great people, if we were to see a yes vote this weekend. remember, we are starting with a blank piece of paper. the whole thing is stunningly confusing. we do not know ultimately what the greek people are voting on. we do not know whether or not in their minds, they are voting yes or no -- or whether that will change during the weekend. the high court will rule on the series of claims that the referendum is not

constitutional. we watched the turnout closely we need 40% turnout for this to be legal. restrictions on bank accounts in place, it is going to be easy to see if people travel home -- you have to travel to your region to vote. which is usually the place of your birth whether or not they turnout out in sufficient numbers to make that happen. in the general election, there was a 60% turnout. nevertheless, the whole series of questions we do not know the answer to. as we head to the weekend, to the referendum. anna: fascinating logistical story there, the difference between the responses you get on this polling. it depends on how you phrase it certain questions around greece. hans, let's bring you into the situation. just two days, what is the imf saying about the greek story? hans: they have inserted himself

into the argument yet again. they are giving a pro numbers. these numbers are saying $60 billion over the next few years that bolsters the argument that they need to do something about the debt sustainability. this is all along with what varoufakis has been talking about. he would rather cut off his armed and sign an agreement of the re-profiling of the debt. greece will need an additional 60 billion euros, that is nearly twice as much as what they had asked for in the two-year. they will need 10 million is to cover the next months to october. you have to increase majorities and on top of that, at an

additional 20-year grace. period. he insists he can negotiate something quickly if he is bolstered by the people. if they say no they are saying the city has deteriorated. it is going to be more difficult to get an agreement for the no vote. we just heard the case, he said last night that it is important the old offer -- the 15 billion offer is no longer on the table. here is how he put it. one illusion must be swept from the table, if the outcome is negative, you will end up with an easier and more attractive package. the 60 billion number could end up being more because the growth assumptions of the imf, it is unclear if they have factored in how bad the economy is going to be this quarter. after this week's bank shut

down, they assume 0% growth. we are in a recession in greece. the 17 should have 3%. the eurogroup will be meeting july 7 in brussels. i want to show you this important business daily and germany. it shows the prime minister with a gun to his head. he says more money, or else i would shoot. that is a the germans see the situation. anna: hans nichols joining us from berlin. guy in athens. let's return to asian stocks fluctuating as investors wait for the referendum. the jobs data we got yesterday the chinese market doing its own thing. david is in hong kong. i see the chinese stock market has repaired the losses we saw

earlier. tell us a story. david: absolutely, i think to put that into contacts, we are down to 2%. at the low point of the day, we were down to 7.5% from yesterday's close. that was a move downward about 2%. we still have about two hours of trade, i'm it be speaking early. 50% of the 1200 stocks on the shanghai composite were limited down. the market tries to revive itself. you mentioned the latest measures the government announced. they stem from these moving out of the process of the margin debt leveraging position. we are seeing they will strictly punish market manipulation they're looking across the market.

i think particularly they're looking at the index. at the futures market, what happens, as you have noted, during the last hours of trading, we see the big selloff. what has happened, you have a lot of these funds that get shorted for futures. just to hedge the rest. when people see that, they start selling. and it feeds on itself. that is what is happening now. let me give you a sense of the region, as the market dances on its own really for the month. asia-pacific, we are down about 1/5 of 1%. volumes fairly tepid now, very thin. it happens over the weekend, we can draw more here in the newsroom. anna: david is joining us from hong kong, that brings us to our twitter question. should the chinese government be trying to stop the shanghai stock market from falling, if that is what they are trying to

do? they have taken a number of actions in the market, whether that is cutting interest rates or reserve requirements at banks. all kinds of things they're doing regarding the real economy, perhaps regarding the stock market as well,. should they be sitting this one out? did they do as much as the stock market was doubling in value? let us tell you what is coming up on the program later this morning. first up, we look for aetna's bid for humana. is there more consolidation to come and health insurance sector? we will have analysis after the break. then we dive into the regulations that china has put forth to break the fall of shanghai stocks, and what works. later, we bring you a bloomberg interview with the iconic british designer -- why he refuses to follow the trend.

more on that consolidation story and health industry, aetna is coming up after the break. ♪

anna: welcome back, a quarter past 6:00. here with the stories you need to know. two days to go until the people of greece vote on the conditions of the new bailout plan. the imf have put the total refinancing at 60 billion euros. people gathered at the offices in athens. the prime minister reiterates its call for the greeks to vote no. he rejects further austerity measures. china's benchmark shanghai index is heading --.

they failed to stop a record pace. chinese shares have lost $2.8 billion industry waits. putting an end to the longest bull market in the history. aetna is said to be nearing an agreement to buy humana the second-largest provider of private medical insurance. according to people with knowledge of the deal, this resulted in $34 billion in cash. they have been locked in negotiations for two weeks and could announce a transaction this weekend. let's get more on our top stories this morning. we start with china, we're joined with mitsubishi usa director brendan brown. good to see you. we started the program talking about what has happened in shanghai in the selling this week. some of the numbers around the china story are quite stunning.

we touched a high on june 12. the number keeps changing. trillions of dollars in value, which is more divorced in reality? the move up, or the move down? >> the move up seems divorced from reality. we are looking at trauma going forward, it investors in particular are looking and being concerned about the underlying creditworthiness of assets there. that is the big story to come out of that early in the year. there was optimism about china improving on the back of a strong upturn in the equity market. now we have more confirmation of china very much double state. i think we will see a definite slowdown as a result of international funds going down into china. some of the high-yield credit products, the next asset price to look at in the case of china

is the exchange rate. the question is how long can it remains strong? given what we have seen in the bust of the market. anna: that is controlled? >> not strictly in accordance with exchange laws, etc. that is being financed by very heavy inflows now. these inflows most recently into the equity market they may come to go in reverse. that does create attention in the currency market. anna: i see how that applies in an economy that is open. investors increasingly get exposure and china but compared to other international markets it is relatively difficult for investors to get involved in china. they still apply in the same way? brendan: china is the biggest carrier trade of all, and we see that in terms of chinese

companies borrowing abroad to get low interest rates and foreign investors coming into products. all of these are much more important to the equity market. you are correct on that. but it would take their cue from what is happening on the equity market. that tells you about the underlying stability of the system. anna: does the equity market have an effect on the real economy? in the sense that this is a retail environment, a lot of retail investors involved in the chinese story -- buying into the stocks. when we see these falls, no doubt headlines in china right now about the shanghai composite, does that have an impact on the consumer? does that not matter? is it a consumer-driven as they would like it to be? brendan: on to consumption, the architect is stronger from the market in consumer spending. what i think it could affect is

chinese attitudes toward investment, as a result of the bust in the equity market. one could well imagine chinese in the medium-term imagining a safe haven in the future, trying to ride the equity market. anna: let's talk about greece. bloomberg has some exclusive pulling out overnight which shows things are too close to call, really too close to call. 14.5% undecided, that could sway things. but in terms of completion 43% saying no to more austerity. 42.5% saying yes specifically to the conditions of the bailout. this is entirely too close to call. where does that leave us? brendan: it leaves us with not being likely at all to see quick action by the eu creditors to come back and make an agreement with greece. so that the scenario on monday

morning is that greece is still very much out there in the cold. and i don't expect anyone to be waived anywhere in the next few months with international creditors, they are not keen to get involved with another 60 billion euros or whatever the estimates are. ana: and we are counting down to the referendum. we have a clock that counts is down to the important moments. but we do not know what is going through the minds of greek voters when they go to the polls. the question is do you accept the conditions attached to the bailout? it a technical, long question. it is not clear how much they understand or how much research they have done, and then there is another view that it is very simplistically all about euro membership. that doesn't seem to be the case. the polling shows a different result when you ask people about if they want to be in the euro 81% of our bloomberg also they want to be.

it is a contrast to the too close to call verdict on sunday's referendum. brendan: they all know that the eu very likely at some point in the future to be making a new offer degrees. and it is actually better to reject this? have a few weeks and months out in the cold and then the ecb with 100 billion euros frozen in the banking system and the imf with frozen loans to greece and under a lot of congressional pressure as to what went wrong are the greeks going to be in a better place in a few months time question? they all got their money out to weather the storm. anna: don't vote no thinking you are going to get a better deal. he is saying that is not going to happen. fascinating conversation, thank you very much. brendan brown executive at

mitsubishi. that brings us to the question should china be trying to stop the shanghai market from falling? should the government be taking any policy action? you might agree they were not quite as active as when the stock market was on the rise. 6:23 here in london. let's move on to a fascinating story, consolidation and health insurance industry. in the united states aetna is nearing an agreement to buy humana. the deal could be announced as soon as this weekend values you monitor at $230 per share. that is a 23% premium at the closing price. here with more why is humana and acquisition target? >> it is basically because it

has a big presence in medicare advantage. this is a private sector version of medicare. and medicare is when the fastest growing pieces of the health insurance market. that is because it is designed for elderly people and is elderly elderly people turning turning 65. membership is growing. that is providing an opportunity for private insurance. humana is one of the biggest suppliers here, has become an acquisition target. a person with knowledge told us that humana was approached by signa earlier this year, that has set up a potential deal. intense negotiations between aetna and humana have been taking place over the last few weeks. anna: we have been talking about that before. it is very topical. >> all five of the biggest

insurers are looking at deals at the moment. you have someone bidding on signa. this is broader than just insurance. and health care insurance, there is a record $400 billion deal that has been announced and ended make way first. particularly, what paved the way for this consolidation and has been the supreme court ruling on obamacare. what has done is up old subsidies for more than 6 million people to afford health insurance. that means more paying customers , and has opened the floodgates. anna: thank you for the details. a potential story in the insurance sector. we are looking at live pictures here from athens. greeks once again lineup at atms to withdraw funds. capital controls being and limited on the economy, that started on monday. we are now in day five of the

capital controls. you see the doors opening up pensioners have been allowed to open the bank to get their money. to recap on the exclusive bloomberg poll we announced at the top of the hour, greece split them at down the middle. that question asked was how you vote in the referendum whether to ratify the agreement the creditors offer? 43% say no. no more austerity that would come with any deal. 43.5%2.5% say yes. the greeks do not see this as a referendum on your ownership. they are still very much in favor of the euro membership. 83% saying they want to stay. that offers the best choice for the future. 12% want to return to their own national currency. 6:26 here in london.

we will leave you with these pictures of the banks opening up on the fifth day. will we see this on monday? we will be back in a few minutes. ♪

anna: welcome back, have past 6:00 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. iran has met another requirement taking a step closer to nuclear deal. the country said it recognizes the right of you andun monitors. should a deal be reached, monitors will receive broad access to the facility including military locations. the europe officials and u.s. once are trying to reach a deal. two days to go, the imf have put

violations on the greeks. police fired tear gas at the offices in athens. the prime minister urges his court to vote no to reject further austerity measures. china's shanghai composite stock index is falling to a steep losses 1992. they fail to stop martin trainers. 2.8 trillion dollars have been lost in just weeks, marking an abrupt end to the longest bull market in the countries history. let's get more a story now regulators are vowing to punish anyone caught manipulating the market. stephen has been watching the wild ride this week. great to have you on the program, there appears to be a question about the efforts the government is making to try and

calm the equity market. tell us the latest. >> not necessarily the retail investors taking much hard from of the government is trying to do. you see that wild ride you're talking about today alone. most of the major benchmarks have been down as much as 7%. about four minutes ago, the positive territory -- in the matter of a few minutes, shanghai is down by more than 2%. that is steep up and down in a matter of a few minutes, also back down. i think a lot of antacids are being consumed in shanghai. among those were perhaps getting those margin calls of the unwinding. that is what we have been seeing, the bull market turn into a bear market pretty fast. just three weeks ago, today, both of the indexes are down by 30%.

that is one reason why securities regulators have been out with announcements almost everything night. ahead of the market, trying to prop up the market. finally, last night, we got warnings from the csrc. saying they would strip we punish those who are manipulative the market, in particular, cross-market manipulation and shortselling for stocks in the index futures. i want to bring your attention to a couple of things that have crossed the wire, why they are seeing losses. a few minutes ago, we have reports of the executives of the startup board are hoping to boost stakes and maintain market stability. that is why we got that pop up after the lunch break. we get another news media report, the futures exchange has suspended 19 accounts from

shortselling today -- suspended for a month. one analyst saying that number 19 suspensions, is not very large to affect the market. while swings, again today. anna: the authorities clearly concerned, they see something they need to act upon. is there a standard definition of panic in the market? if so, are we seeing one? stpehephen: don't take my word for it, i quote, we have sanford bernstein saying it does them across as relatively desperate -- these moves that the government has been doing. we have another economist saying, for now, the mood is verging on panic. that was this morning, perhaps it is more panic now. it is hard to call a bear in rage. this market does not react like others, it is about 80% retail

driven. it is a herd mentality it is margin call time come at you don't have the right collateral to pay it back, it becomes pretty fierce. as what we have seen in last week. anna: we will return to stephen later in the program, we will see if we are down or up 2%. either way, let's get back to our top story. and talk about greece. two days ago, our own paul shows that voters are tied at two close to call. good morning, what is the mood in brussels? as we approach referendum. >> officials here are still in a wait and see mode. they are very much trying to put the referendum in terms of the euro -- and in or out though. if the polls on the package that the prime minister has put forward, his neck and.

it is too close to call the outcome, this is about the people of greece. deciding whether they want to be part of europe, be in the euro or not. they are framing it that way, they hope for a positive outcome on sunday. anna: it is arguable if they are having any success you look at the latest polling. the prime minister was talking about a deal on monday, the day after the referendum, how feasible would that be from brussels? >> these are interesting comments from yesterday. he said whether it is a no vote or a yes vote, he will fly to brussels on monday and sign the deal. i think it is a lot more complicated than that. the program has expired, the talks have been put on hiatus at this point. getting them started again is not just a matter of flying into brussels and sitting down with everybody. in fact, the finance ministers of the eurogroup have been called in for a meeting on

tuesday. that is when they are going to assess what happens in the referendum on sunday. the eu leaders are meeting on wednesday. they have already scheduled when they are going to assess the fallout from this referendum. coming in on monday, it does not seem like that will happen. anna: it seems like a fairly relaxed time frame. our european officials preparing them for a potential no vote? there talking about the possibility? jones: it is looking more and more like a potential reality. they are preparing. but they are going to wait and see on sunday. that is part of the reason they do not want to have a crisis, a panic situation here. they scheduled a meeting a bit later. that is why it is unrealistic to see greece coming into brussels on monday, or even on tuesday and have some kind of meeting. it is going to take time to have

the negotiations started again, depending on how the referendum comes out. in fact the vice president of the commission said it would take several weeks to get the negotiations going after we find out what the result of the referendum is. anna: jones, that you very much. joining us from brussels. now, you will no doubt be keen to find out what's happening in the referendum. sunday is the day the greeks go to the pols.ls. on sunday, we bring you special coverage at 11:00. live on the ground in athens through the programming. let's get more on the greek story, then. let's bring in our guest for the next hour stephen. great to see you. what are your thoughts as we head to this referendum on sunday? and these polls do look to close to call? >> that is clearly the focus of

the foreign exchange markets. they want to see what happens. what do we think? the key point we would say is you could see quite a nomadic move on monday in either direction. the outcome appears very difficult, that is going to be the first response. having said that, we think it main page to say the prime minister will sign the deal monday. the deal might not be an offer on monday. the key point of focus is that things have changed since capital controls have come in any to be renegotiated. monday looks out of the question. by the same token a no doesn't mean an eminent exit. a scenario could come into frame on the back, but again, it will probably be countered with negotiations. both would be extreme moves on monday morning. anna: all the moves we see on

the euro in recent weeks and that we might see on sunday into monday, it is important to bear in mind, as well as the story around where this leaves the euro with a construct, we're seeing the euro being traded perhaps slightly counterintuitively around the risk story. rather this means the euro will break up. steven: in our view, what we have had for the past few weeks is bad news in greece. actually seeing the euro rise. the reason for that is the real driver of the euro now is actually the ecb quantitative program. that is fair. if you have a small area of the market, it is short euro. they want to buy the euro back. that is why you have this doctrine to it in moving between greek headlines and the movement. anna: if you're looking at the foreign exchange markets for any

expression of results, you look at something else? or is it all went to be an expression of risk appetite? steven: keep point we look at is peripheral expense. typically, spain and italy -- measured over germany. that response is going to be quite key. like the fx markets, you could see violent moves. we was suggest to fade those move. anna: doesn't look as bad in terms of peripheral spreads. thank you very much steven stays with us. let's talk bp. they agree to settle all federal and state lanes from the 2010 deep horizon spill. with more on the story let's take it back, a record settlement for shareholders. >> we saw the stock rally after the news come in fact.

this is the biggest settlement and u.s. history. the thing is, the berlin area agreement phases is out over 18 years. a record $5.5 billion is going to cover federal penalties under the clean water act. five states are going to get payouts, as well. in a statement they said this will resolve the largest liability remaining from the tragic accident. bp have been fighting claims in court for the past two years. people familiar have told bloomberg that falling oil prices and a federal judge ruling that put a potential $13.7 billion price tag help motivate bp to change tactics in may and come to a settlement. it could be tax-deductible. anna: and the figure could be a lot higher? >> the settlement will cost bp

more than $20 million -- $20 billion when federal estate claims are factored in. a comes on top of billions they have already spent on cleanup and compensation. bp might have to raise its budget to $58 billion. that might not be enough, costs could reach $70 billion. we talking about some of the biggest costs, there are residents who did not join the 2012 smaller settlement. the reason for the share, the biggest threat is gone. anna: thank you very much. still to come on countdown, part of our conversation with the iconic designer paul smith. stay tuned for that in a couple of minutes. ♪

anna: welcome back, you're watching countdown on bloomberg. 7:46 in paris. u.s. health care benefit giant aetna is said to diebuy humana. according to people with knowledge of the matter, the deal would be worth about $34 billion in cash and stock. the company have been locked in negotiations. the shanghai composite index is headed for its steepest three-week fault since 1992. the government measures to shore up the market have failed. chinese shares have now lost $2.8 trillion in value in just three weeks. sparking an abrupt end to the longest bull market in history. with just two days to go until the people of greece vote on a

bailout plan, the imf have put the total refinancing over three years. police fired tear grass and pepper spray in athens. the prime minister reiterated his call for greece to vote no on sunday, and reject further austerity measures. let's stay with a great conversation, guy johnson is standing by in athens. guy: let's talk to a guy who has turned around the country and company in difficult conditions. nick runs the imports company you guys do all kinds of things. aviation, shipping, soft drinks. tells us what it has been like for the last few weeks. >> as you know, most of the people -- 90%, it is important to us. the other 10% is great products

but in order to make them, we need other ingredients from abroad. what we consume in our country is mostly imported. on monday, as you know in greece, we have to vote. that is the reason we cannot stay with our suppliers, we support ingredients to make products and to import products. guy: did you stockpile beforehand? are you prepared? nick: some we produce here in greece. but we use ingredients from other countries. at this moment, our stock is finished. after two or three days.

and there are no products in the market. guy: you have to stop producing. nick: right. guy: the banks do not open on tuesday, what happens? nick: it is a hard society for everybody. all of the people in greece, if they want to buy what they need they need food. like's thee pasta. guy: what happens if this crisis drags on and on. nick: i think we have at least three years. everything depends on the result

sunday. as you know, sunday we have to vote yes or no. the business community wants to vote yes. if we vote no, there is no want to send us money. the money in the bank's -- guy: before this happened, did you lose money abroad? informed accounts? nick: some people, of course. some, of course not. guy: are you hopeful for the future? nick: they did not send abroad

the money, some businessmen and political persons sent their money abroad. under the pressure. guy: i look forward to your company having a better future a better week that it is had this week. anna, i will hand it back to you. we will be back shortly. anna: let's shift years. manus cranny caught up with the iconic designer paul smith. he never was to be number one in the marketplace. paul: it has been very slow growth, very gentle growth. we've been around for a long time. as i said earlier, we are self-finance. no borrowing. it is been a process. and the interesting thing i think is because i am ok and business and design, whereas a

lot of the kids here today are really good at design. we do not know yet about their business skills, they are only a couple of skills and years out of university. that help me understand all of the aspects of business. and that is why i have managed to build a solid foundation. also, i have never been today's flavor. which i love. manus: what do you mean? paul: if you're number one in music, tv, magazines, rockstar there is only one place you can go. and that is down. very few people managed to maintain their height that they get at some point. anna: a fantastic conversation with manus there. be sure to tune into the half hour special at 8:00 u.k. time.

paul smith talking to manus. tim joins us from our business site. a fascinating story around greece. at every turn, really. you have a great one on how this links to the spanish tourist industry. tim: what is happening is that people are rebooking holidays and choosing to go to spain and portugal instead of greece. we are seeing arrivals up, the number of overnight stays from foreigners. anna: give us another greek story about the devalued currency always having a ride -- how euros are not worth the same everywhere. tim: it is becoming an unofficial trade were people can write and iou. what is a euro worth if you can access it? the euro in your bank account is not worth any where near as much in your pocket. anna: from a foreign exchange

perspective, how does the story developed? if capital controls are still in place, a prolonged. , how do people innovate? how does the government help daily life? tim: i think it is a very important point, and get back to the promise of the prime minister to sign a deal on monday. we need to take into account capital controls on the economy, it is slow growth. it has to be forecasted. from that perspective, unfortunately from greece, it may mean more austerity. it shows you how much impact these capital controls and the closing of the banks are having on the greek economy. anna: and people are talking about parallel currencies -- ious. is that going to be a real possibility? steven: if cash is king, and

people are paying a premium for cash as we have heard with the discounting of the checks, you could argue that is the case. but the key point here again is there is negative impact on the economy from these capital controls. things have to change. the key points i mentioned earlier that the offer on the table earlier last week retained to a different economic outlook in greece. post the referendum, we have to reassess what is required in greece. anna: where chefs like to eat in london. the inside track where they go to get food for them. tim: is a very interesting survey to see what people do on their time off, where people who cook for a living actually go. is excellent. anna: they go highbrow or do they spend a fortune? tim: it is a mixture. anna: we'll have to read. just enough details. stveeven stays with us.

we will stay here in london, plenty more to come from athens. we're coming down to the referendum in athens. stay with us. ♪

guy: countdown to a referendum. a bloomberg exclusive poll shows that it is a race too close to call. anna: shanghai slumps. chinese stocks have for their worst drought since 1992. the government investigating possible market regulation. major m&a. the latest possible tie up in the u.s. health insurance industry. guy: welcome to athens, welcome to "countdown."

anna: welcome back to the program. let's first start away from athens in shanghai. we will bring you up-to-date with what is happening in the markets. a roller coaster of weeks and things have not got better today in the sense that things look we across the chinese market. this is the rise that we saw over the first six months. this is where we are right now. it has been a big market story of the week. the securities regulator in china is now investigating possible cross market manipulation and threatening they will take action over those found to have done anything wrong. we will get more from stephen engle on the ground. letter mine were selves have been on the equity markets globally.

the u.s. markets are caught up in the greek story and the payroll numbers which showed a moderate source of growth. this is the limbo they found themselves in at the end. u.s. markets are closed today. there won't be any trading on those. we will be taking the greek story later on today and we'll talk to the founder of easyjet and he will be joining bloomberg later in the morning in a first overview of the day talking no doubt about the greek story. >> let's get back to life on the ground in athens. just two days to go and the polling is too close to call. guy johnson is in athens and hans nichols is in berlin. we have the latest bloomberg polling data to show that things are too close to call. guy: you couldn't put cigarette paper between them.

it is amazing that we find ourselves in the situation that what is amazing as well is over 70% of people polled ask about the future and say that they want to remain part of the euro. really a paradox here at the moment. confusion is the overriding theme. what are we voting for and what is our future? all of this undetermined at this point in time and a difficult situation where people have to travel home to their regions. there are around 9 million registered voters and you have to get around 40% to get the referendum through but people still confused about what they are voting for and what question they are being asked and that is reflected in the polls. you have a discrepancy between the desire to remain a member and the view as to whether or not you should accept a package from the creditors. there is this expectation -- i heard it yesterday from yanis for a fact this -- yanis

varoufakis that there will be a deal monday night. that is the expectation. we were hearing from a company in the last hour saying we have to shut our business down. just a real lack of information about what will happen next week. anna: talking about the attitude of the creditors there. that arguably does not seem to have stuck as an argument. what is the latest from the creditors? guy: -- hans: the international monetary fund has given syriza an argument ahead of the vote. a new idea that calls for a debt restructuring pushing the

maturities from 20 years to 40 years. and a topline figure of 60 billion euros. the 50 billion euros is the next package. of that there is a 36 billion share that they say that eu member states would have to come up with. it is this idea of debt free profiling, changing the maturities and adding an additional 20 year grace period. mr. tsipras has said he will be in brussels on monday to renegotiate a deal and he says they can do it quickly. you heard yana's varoufakis tell guy that but it might not be that easy. increasingly from the germans and other european leaders that it will be very complicated because the old offer is no longer on the table. here is what mr. vasquez said this morning. it would be wrong to assume that

a no vote would strengthen greece's negotiating position. one other quick thing about this number is that it relies on gross assumptions that may not be accurate. they say zero growth for 2016. we are in recession right now. hard to see how they will pull out of it this year. they see it picking up in 2016. 3% growth in the eurozone is optimistic and that is what is hurting the analysis. to get a sense for what is happening here there is a great deal of frustration or it it's normally a staid business tabloid. they have the front page showing mr. tsipras with a gun to his head. july 7 is tuesday and finance ministers will be meeting in russells. i will book my ticket when i get

off the air with you. anna: hans nichols joining us from athens. asian stocks have been fluctuating all morning. the u.s. jobs data yesterday and more domestic. let's get to david england who has the latest from hong kong. every time i look at what is happening in china it changes. >> which is why i keep looking at this. this does change by the minute. keep in mind that we are entering the last hour of trade when usually things really follow part or in just to give you an update i don't think this two day trend actually does this justice. from the close on thursday that is about a 7% drop and then we spiked up by 8% and then we fell back down.

we managed to get ourselves above water at one point but we are now close to 7%. the first thing to show is -- we have been covering this all week. the new measures that regulators are trying to put in place to the pboc, to the securities regulators introduced. a list of things to hopefully stem the decline. the first show is they have not got this right yet. they managed to create a situation where margin debt can be built up this month. when things start to unwind they throw all these tools at it and nothing seems to be working. the other side of the argument is we don't know how much worse this could actually look. for the latest one you'll get more from my colleague, they are looking at intermarket and affiliation.

let me just give you a sense of how asia is trading overall. that is how asia looks if you slice and dice according to sector groups. anna: david england joining us from hong kong. some breaking news from the m&a space. aetna is going to buy hume on a $437 billion. just as we said, it is then confirmed by them themselves. so the transaction is projected to realize 1.2 5 billion and they are giving us all kinds of details at the pricing. $230 perfume on a share and they get to keep their commitments and kentucky. the hume on a transaction realizing 1.2 5 billion in 2018.

also we are getting details that the combined projected business of who will be managing it and what kind of profits they expect to make. so my colleague will be bringing that later today. let's get back to the global head of fx strategy. we were just talking earlier how this doesn't look like 2012. any further thoughts on that tackle -- that? guest: this is a key point. there is a lot of contagion here. greek stress with leading to a blowout in italian and spanish growth. at that time, 10 year bond spreads reached 500 basis points over germany and now they are about 145 or it what's that -- what that is telling us is the market is far more relaxed.

that is important to the euro because what it is telling us is the market is not speculating on euro breakup or an end to the euro which was on the table for a lot of investors three years ago. anna: we talked a lot in the last hour about greece. i was talking to brandon brown about china and the big news in the chinese stock market -- he says the next thing to look for is the currency. how long can that hold if you start to see money flowing out of china, is that on your radar? guest: i think it can hold for a long time. we would argue that currently the chinese authority is prioritizing growth over structural reform and it responsible turmoil in the stock market and puts even more pressure on them to boost growth.

the key point we would focus on is that china wants to see its currency evolve and they want to see it as a long-term value. they don't want to be going down the route of company depreciation. we think we will see a stable rem and be going forward. there is also some talk about that women be being involved in the sdr. anna: the imf special drawing rights. guest: it is a broad measure of currency. if china is included in that it is seen as being very prestigious and will probably increase the use of ram and the as a store of value. clearly heavy depreciation is not a way to get that. anna: thank you. that conversation about china

brings us nicely to our question on twitter. should china be trying to stop the stock market from falling. arguably the market is less active but have your say on twitter. we will take a short break on the program but coming up a done deal. in the last few minutes we learned that the health care company aetna will be buying its rival hume on a for $7 billion.

anna: welcome back. just two days to go until the people of greece vote on the conditions of a new bailout plan. the imf has put the total refinancing needs at 50 billion euros. police fired tear gas as

protesters gathered yesterday at the eu office in athens. alexis tsipras has reiterated his call to vote no and reject further austerity measures. this chinese stock indexes headed for its deepest fall since 1992. chinese shares have now lost $2.8 trillion in value in three weeks marking an abrupt and to the longest bull market in country history. >> let's get back to our conversation surrounding greece. great to see you. give us -- is it possible to have a base case scenario? the polls look too close to call. >> we have seen the ones from bloomberg and we have done our own for the clients yesterday. we are still within the margin of error.

what is important here is the yes is entering the last few days. usually when you get to the past few days victory should get closer but we are still very close to call. we don't know what we might see over the next few days. we on sure if the banks can go through with the liquidity. there are plenty of variables. a potential ruling by the council of state in greece. there is an appeal against the referendum but plenty in play. anna: could the court say the referendum should not take place? guest: it is unlikely to rule today. i suspect this debate will go on for some time and will go beyond the referendum data at this point. >> if there is a yes outcome, we

have heard from tsipras that he is promising to sign a deal monday. what is your view on what will happen with the yes vote? guest: a yes vote is important because it will provide some worst-case scenario relief. clearly especially when talking about giving greece another 60 billion, this will not happen if tsipras is still the prime minister because the credibility is not there. so the question is how long will it take for a change of government. will tsipras be dragging his feet? or will he resign monday. i think the former is more likely than the latter. >> tsipras says he wants to stay in the euro and the greek government is trying to say this is not about euro membership but

this is a government that is accused its members of blackmailing first of the government and now the people how can they hope to have any kind of relationship? guest: they are also saying they will open the banks on to state which is a huge?. they need to say the vote is not about grexit is otherwise they will lose lots of votes. all the opinion polls are telling us that 80% of the public wants to remain in the euro. so if you ask the opposition to tell you they will oppose it to the bottom line is the voters are going to vote on something that doesn't exist any longer. >> it does seem that the greek people are not buying the creditor line. they are voting on what is on the paper very >> there is confusion here that prevails. both sides are blaming each other and they debate and no one

is telling the voters what will happen a day after and that is what is missing. >> and the key point that we made earlier as well that the market is looking at this as a digital response. it will probably continue beyond that and our view would be to save those initial violent moves. anna: anyway that we see the banking sector opening up next week? guest: tuesday is difficult but later on it depends. for the ecb to move they need a signal by the europeans. for that you need the government of greece going to brussels and starting realistic talks. if that happens it can be done but as it is now we haven't seen anything realistic for the last five months. anna: the extent to which future write-downs should happen seems to be the sticking point.

we heard in our interview talking to varoufakis yesterday and he was talking about the need to write down more of greece's debt. that might be on the table for the third bailout, do you see that increasing in the weeks ahead? guest: it depends but the government from the greek side will put on the table. the proposal of last week's dead. the economy has taken a huge hit. 2015 is a right off. 2016 is a question mark. debt relief has always been on the table but in exchange for committing to targets. anna: do you think -- how will

this feel monday morning? paint a picture of a yes and a no and what that makes you think. guest: the worst outcome would be a narrow victory by the no. there could be speculation the government has been playing funny with the votes. we are already seeing protests last night. greece is deeply divided so a narrow victory i that no would be the worst outcome. if it is a yes, difficult for tsipras to stick around. he will still try to remain in office and he will go to brussels and it will be very clear to him from their that yes they will be negotiating because they never closed the door but nothing meaningful there because there is no trust in the government and certainly less

after they lost a vote on the referendum. if it is a no we will see more concerns about the banks. it will be the least of the banks going under next week and more panic on the streets. anna: thank you very much. joining us there from -- thank you for spending the last hour with us. consolidation in the health insurance industry. aetna has confirmed within the last half hour that it will buy its rival humana for about $37 billion. the offer represents a 23% premium over the closing price yesterday and the details of this just coming through in the last half hour. when we reported it people were telling us overnight and it has been broken in the last half hour and now here to tell us all the details as they come

through. >> we were told by people familiar a $34 billion we now know it is $37 billion. aetna will acquire all outstanding shares of humana. at that shareholders are going to own approximately 74% of the combined company. the transaction projected to realize 1.25 billion dollars of annual synergies. i am looking at the statement right here. they are saying that this will strengthen their ability to lead the effort. the statement also says that it is the aetna ceo who will serve as chairman of the combined company and there will be a conference call on july 6 for anyone who wants to hear more. anna: half an hour ago we were

saying this could break this weekend and it broke a little bit sooner. we have had plenty of talk about insurance companies getting together in the past. reporter: all five of the biggest health insurers are looking at deals in the u.s.. a record $400 billion of deals announced more generally through may 31. what happened in health insurance that paved the way even more is a supreme court ruling on obamacare, recently upholding subsidies for more than 6 million people to help them afford health insurance which means more customers for insurance to open the floodgates. humana in particular has been a target because of its presence in medicare which is the elderly and disabled as well. that baby boomer market is growing. anna: a bloomberg poll shows

that greeks are split down the middle heading into the referendum on european bailout proposals. we will bring you more when we come back. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage

all of taylor swift's music videos interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. anna: welcome back. this is a picture of the european equity markets right now. not a great deal of conviction. euro stocks seem a little bit weaker but we do seem to be in limbo until sunday. waiting for the greek referendum . the greeks going to the polls to decide whether to accept conditions around that second bailout. with that in mind let's ring you up to speed. two days to go until the people

of greece vote on a new bailout plan. they put the total refinancing needs at 50 billion euros over the next three years. prime minister alexis tsipras has agreed to vote no on sunday and reject further austerity measures. the u.s. health care benefits giant has agreed to buy humana the second greatest provider of medicare. the deal values humana at $32 per share. it comes at a period of consolidation within the industry. china's benchmark shanghai composite is headed for its steepest three-week fall since 1992. efforts to shore up the equities market failed to stop traders unwinding positions at a record pace. they have lost $2.8 trillion in

value in three weeks marking an abrupt end to the longest bull market in history. chinese regulators now looking at possible market relation. stephen engle joins us now. it is been a wild ride. i have lost track of how many stock market's worth of dollar value have been lost. reporter: you said $2.8 trillion loss which is the size of the french economy. that is a lot of value taken out of the bull turned their market. three weeks ago today that it was the high on the composite index and it is down 30% since then and now today as we get toward the close the shanghai composite -- even though it crept into briefly positive territory it is now down four

point 3%. the unwinding of the margin positions in the retail driven market is what is driving this bear market. i have a note saying that some of the timex executives right after the lunch break -- that is the startup board in china him out and said we will buy some of our shares and do something to maintain market stability. the market got a bit of a boost but it was very short-lived and plummeted back down 4.5% lower. we are also getting news that the china financial futures exchange has suspended 19 accounts for futures let your -- irregularities trading and that is part of this investigation that the csr see announced overnight that they will launch an investigation on possible

cross market manipulation. people familiar with the matter say that they will be examining shortselling activity for index futures. right now in shanghai and shun jen it looks as though we will have the worst performing three-week period of the chinese stock market since 1992. anna: what you are referring to is the chinese stock market losing value since june 12 around about the same value as the french stock market. amazing moves we have seen coming through on the chinese and of things. let's look more closely at the market moves. not too much direction coming through. we are in a holding pattern ahead of the weekend.

if you have a look at the bond market we were talking earlier about whether we would see any widening of the spread after the referendum -- are we on hold? reporter: you will really have to look very closely to see much movement today in the bond markets. what i want to draw your attention to is this chart which is comparing the bloomberg greece sovereign bond index which is the line you see here in white and comparing it to the eurozone sovereign index. look at this drop in the white. that is the drop since july 26 where of course we had all of those developments over the weekend. you can see it is a lot less volatile if you look at the index excluding greece. i wanted to show you that fascinating look at the impact

of greece on the bond market but i also wanted to point out that we know bonds had their best start of the year since 2012 but saw a real slowdown in the second quarter with that selloff. j.p. morgan chase, the world's biggest underwriter of corporate bonds, is seeing the pace picking up because companies will be funding their take of the m&a will have some impact on the bond markets. anna: interesting. let's get back to the conversation around the politics of greece. what is the mood like in brussels? reporter: very much like the markets. that eu leaders are in a holding pattern as well. they are trying

to frame it to the greek people as a vote for the euro or not being in the euro. they are strongly trying to put it in these terms directly to the greek people. for them the landscape will change after this vote. on monday they will be looking to see what things look like post-referendum. anna: tsipras saying he will sign a deal monday, after the referendum. there was general skepticism around this desk about whether that would be possible. how feasible does that seem to you? reporter: this is quite amazing that he said no matter what the vote sunday he will fly to brussels on monday and to sign a deal. the fact is that there is no deal on the table. even with a yes vote, the

program that proposal references has expired. it is unclear legally what the status is. that is one of the problems with the referendum, but the leaders here will take a look at it and see what the result is. if it is a yes vote we can see about restarting negotiations. what monday is way too soon. you'll have to see the landscape after the referendum and what is happening in athens in general. the euro area finance ministers are planning to meet on tuesday and the leaders might meet on wednesday to further assess it. anna: after all the events of this week and then we get the referendum, if what we end up with is protracted negotiations we might end up with the conversations from a week ago. our officials in europe prepared

for a no vote? reporter: it is not and in terms of -- and neck in terms -- it is neck and neck but impossible to tell, monday or late sunday night after the referendum. they are hoping for a yes vote but that could be a basis to restart negotiations. they will not be able to do that monday. the european commission vice president was quoted as saying it will take several weeks to restart negotiations after a potential yes vote. even next week we will have talks and discussions but you won't be able to get anything done at that point. anna: as you watch that clock countdown -- thank you very much grade only 40 minutes --

thank you very much. only 40 minutes to go to the start of european equities trading. patrick, put the latest developments in context for us. >> we are in a holding pattern until sunday and i think through monday, tuesday or wednesday. a yes or no vote will not lead to an immediate deal. tsipras is very naive to call the referendum and very hypocritical that june 30 he sent a letter signing the terms of the bailout and now he is asking the voters to vote no on the same thing he signed already. anna: is there no way in your mind that if we have a really big yes vote could that open the door for some sort of signing no? guest: what it will open the door to is that the ecb can get

the banks punch -- unchaining again. it will basically unlock the greek economy. anna: we could see the ecb being advised -- making the decision to increase the ela if required. guest: it gets the banks functioning again. anna: we don't necessarily need a bailout signed to get the european central bank to reopen that support for the banking sector? guest: that is my guess. governments and all of european nations will want to see if there is a strong yes. anna: bavaro caucus thinks the ecb -- varouifakis thinks the ecb is making this up as a goes along. are you staying away from anything to do with european

equities? do you view it as a buying opportunity? guest: we think when we come to the end of this year it will be largely immaterial and that you are buying global companies that are not impacted by greece you can buy the dips and get better values. the market is basically upset with greece right now and the contagion risk isn't anything like it was in 2011-12 to -- 2011-12. current deficits are nowhere near as bad as they were. the contagion risk is not as bad as it was. anna: what do you buy? guest: we like the banks. the low tangible book value is good. anna: if you were going to see contagion in greece that is where you might feel it. guest: that is what the markets

pretty much price in. the banks don't have the same exposure like they had. they had four to five years to prepare for this. bmw has anyone in america changed their minds on bmw based on greece? i don't think so. even in europe. global companies get caught up in the greece trauma. anna: we saw the economy get it very bad. guest: bmw with 3% earnings, 11% dividend yield. in america no one will change purchasing decisions based on what is happening in greece. anna: we have had interesting moves in the chinese stock market and the jobs creation numbers out of the u.s. yesterday. might those have more bearing on

whether or not people buy a bmw? we will talk about that later. patrick armstrong is staying with us. let's talk about china for a moment. very topical with the big moves we have seen. should china be trying to stop the market moving? should the chinese authorities be getting involved in trying to decide the direction or should they cushion the direction of the movement? maybe that is what they are trying to do. let me know what you think. we will take a break and bring you some live pictures of athens. this is the picture coming from the greek parliament in athens as the bloomberg poll shows the greeks are completely split. almost 50-50. very close in terms of polling and we have 43% saying they will vote no. 14.5% undecided. that is an exclusive bloomberg

poll. ♪

anna: welcome back. here with the stories that you need to know this morning. with two days to go until the people of greece vote on the conditions of a new bailout plan the imf has put the total refinancing needs at 50 euros. police displayed -- sprayed tear gas as protesters gathered yesterday. the prime minister has reiterated his call for the country to vote no. china's shanghai stock composite is heading for its weakest -- as markets fail to stop unwinding of positions at a market place. chinese shares have lost 2.8 million dollars in shares in

three weeks. -- 2.8 trillion dollars in shares in three weeks. bp has reached an agreed with the u.s. department of justice following the gulf of mexico oil spill. the incident claimed 11 lives and caused the worst in u.s. history. this broke in yesterday so we have already seen the reaction of ep shareholders. reporter: we did see shares move higher about 4% yesterday. they are slightly higher today so it will be interesting to see how they move in the open. this is a big figure. the biggest settlement for a single entity in u.s. history and it is to settle all federal and state claims for the horizon

spill. $5.5 billion would cover the federal penalties and the five oh coast states would get payouts. -- five gulf coast states would get payouts. this has been a bit of a change in tactics for bp because we know that bp has been fighting claims in court for two years but according to people familiar, as several judges recent rulings that put a potential $30.7 billion price tag on clean water act violations, kind of helped bp get motivated to change its tactics. as they come to the settlement a lot of which could be tax-deductible. anna: could this number change? at the end of the day? reporter: it is not so much that the settlement might be a different number of basically

when you factor in other payments, that could push it to $20 billion and also this comes on top of the billions already spent on response, cleanup, compensation, pushing bp to raise its budget to pay for this bills. that may still not be enough. the cost could reach $70 billion. then we are talking about the biggest cost. you have investors and resident businesses that did not join a smaller 2012 settlement and they are still demanding billionths. -- billions. anna: are you playing the oil price at the moment? are you interested in the oil majors? guest: we are short a call option on wti prices. if wti gets to $60 you see shale

production come back and move back into shale -- and capex move back into shale. anna: let's talk about some other topical moves in the market. we are asking questions on twitter as to whether a government and china should be trying to influence the direction of the chinese stock market, what are your thoughts? guest: i am not sure whether they should. whether they will or not might be more important. i think they will. anna: ucb's actions as designed to limit the falls on the stock market -- you see these actions as designed to limit the falls on the stock market? guest: they have been very proactive on the margin side of things lending, reserve requirements. the next leg they have to get into is on the fiscal side of things. all the monetary stimulus

liquidity is going into the bank accounts and the stock market. you need to get into the real economy. anna: asking on twitter, what effect this will have on other stock markets. if we saw any other market losing 2.8 trillion dollars in value we would be asking where is the fallout next. does that happen in china? guest: it just pushes us back to where we were in february. it is retailed money that is in and out of markets. that is what you get with china. a potential big term growth plate but also volatile. the wealth effect changes consumption behavior. if you made a lot of money you're more likely to spend. anna: not as consumer driven as the government might want that increasingly so. guest: that is what they are

trying to engineer but they have a long road ahead of them. anna: in the u.s. we had slightly disappointing numbers. guest: they are in line with the trend a little below where consensus was hoping for. we are still in the recovery. by the time we get to september the fed is looking at an economy growing it 2.5%-2.6%. they're starting to show two point 4% inflation being -- 2.4% inflation being the market consensus down the road. it is harder to justify. anna: whereas previously that inflation element might have been the missing part of the jigsaw, it might have seen jobs created but you see that coming. guest: the market is pricing that in now. whenever you see jobs created, you see economic growth and zero interest-rate policy with inflation, they are leaning

toward liftoff. i would not be surprised if they don't do a full 25. yellen repeated gradual so many times and it might be a way to symbolize this is not like other rate advising cycles. anna: are you getting up early on monday morning? guest: whenever i wake up i will see the results. nothing is going to change on monday anyway. anna: thank you very much. we believe you now with "on the move." these are live pictures coming from athens. day five of capital controls winding down on the greek economy. ♪

jonathan: good morning. happy friday and welcome to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro in london. just moments away from the european stock market open. referendum risk. two days to go until greece votes on whether to accept conditions for a bailout. a poll shows the rate is too close to call. creditors divided. the imf says greece needs another 36 billion euros over the next three years. after this week, they may need even more. shanghai stocks slide. the biggest three-week route since 1992. the government struggles to stop it. they are three of the things i will be watching over the next

60 minutes. futures in london lower. dax futures pretty much dead flat. going into a very uncertain weekend. mark barton has your friday morning market open. mark: over the week, the euro is on track for its second weekly decline against the dollar. we had some disappointing jobs numbers. one step forward, one step back. fed futures show a 29% chance the central bank will increase rates in september, down from 35% on wednesday. they are pricing in a 67% chance by september, declining from 72%. the greece referendum on sunday. a poll commissioned by bloomberg shows the nation is divided right down the middle. not much movement in the bond market.