will be watching over the next 60 minutes. futures in london lower. dax futures pretty much dead flat. going into a very uncertain weekend. mark barton has your friday morning market open. mark: over the week, the euro is on track for its second weekly decline against the dollar. we had some disappointing jobs numbers. one step forward, one step back. futures show a 29% chance the central bank will increase rates in september, down from 35% on wednesday. they are pricing in a 67% chance by september, declining from 72%. on sunday.referendum a poll commissioned by bloomberg shows the nation is divided right down the middle. not much movement in the bond market. greek yields rising after

falling for two consecutive days. something jumped out at me earlier. not the u.k. bond market, which is barely changed. , like forthe u.k. like sales posted the worst tune in almost a decade. they are spending more money on ledger activities according to the high street sales tracker. consumers are more confident about their financial situation. they spend the extra money on eating out and going on holiday. other data today, eurozone services, u.k. pmi services, eurozone retail sales. let's look at stock markets. they are down for the week. equities headed for their first weekly drop in a month. the msci index on track for its biggest fall since march. european stocks are on track for

their biggest weekly fall since may. mixed start at the open. tick tock, tick tock. jonathan: mark barton, thank you very much. that is the early mood in europe. let's head over to hong kong. david ingles standing by. you, morning, i say to another chopping session in shanghai. talk to me. absolutely, jon. this story keeps giving. it is down of further 5.8%. we are just about closing up shop for the week. let's do a damage report. we basically put together the in somethingeeks like 22-23 years. as these levels right now, 3686, close to 30% from just three

weeks ago. the damage, i think we are roughly at about 2.8, maybe 2.9 trillion u.s. dollars, roughly the size of the economy of britain. that is the market impact that has been wiped out. stocks in this index, 900 are down at least 5%. it just gives you an idea of the scale of decline. this also shows that the chinese authorities, regulators, have put up several steps this week. tuesday, a new one. wednesday, a new one as well. they haven't quite gotten this right. they are still calibrating what they do with this. they've managed to create a situation where margin debt can go north of 300 billion. unwind, theys to

try and smooth out the process. obviously, it is not working. argument,side of that if they hadn't introduced these things this week, things could be much worse. let me show you where we are at this point. back to levels of last march. very interesting point coming from asia. they are coming out with some targets. bnp, galaxy securities rather, they could be seen as falling back to 3000. it could fall to 3000, they say. let me just end with another comment. why haven't these measures worked? they weren't meant to spur the bull market. they were meant to limit financial risk. back to you. jonathan: great work. david ingles joining us out of hong kong. going to talk about china later. greece, the banks, and stock exchange. they've been closed all week ahead of this sunday's

referendum on the eurozone bailout offer that may not even be an offer anymore. our bloomberg poll is showing the vote is currently too close to call. let's get the latest on the situation. erik schatzker is in athens. hans nichols is in berlin. erik, i want to start with you. not just our poll, but the polls throughout greece, the situation on the ground continues to bite. the difference between yes or no continues to narrow. this weekend is incredibly uncertain. erik: at this point, it is a tossup. we are in the home stretch. it has been a week since alexis tsipras, the prime minister, called this referendum. the greeks go to the polls on 7:00 sunday morning. it is a dead heat. bloomberg sampled more than 1000 greeks to find out how they intend to vote on sunday. we found the difference between the two can be just 0.5%.

43% of greeks we surveyed plan to vote no, which is to say no to the eurozone bailout offer. 42.5% of greeks we surveyed plan to vote yes in favor of the bailout offer. 14.5% undecided. three percentage points of a margin of error. it makes it a statistical tie. i will point out that our polling also shows more than 80% of greeks want to stay inside the eurozone. those people, those who want to vote no and also stay in the eurozone face a difficult choice. it is pretty clear, as you are going to hear, that getting back to the negotiating table after a no vote on sunday is going to be no easy matter for mr. tsipras and mr. varoufakis. jonathan: let's bring hans into

the conversation. i'll bring the imf into the conversation as well. it is going to be difficult for greece to get around the table with creditors. talk to me about the report released by the imf yesterday and how that impacts the current division between creditors themselves. hans: what the imf has done is stripped away this myth that you cannot have a third bailout package without some sort of debt restructuring. look for syriza in the next 24-48 hours, to say even the imf says we need a lot more money, but we need to restructure our debt. the imf is talking about 60 billion over the next three years. 36 billion would have to come from eu member states. then you have to have maturities change from 20 years to 40 years. here's the issue. the last offer from the eu, that

15 billion, that is no longer viable. every finance minister and eu official has said that is off the table. in part because, you need to reconfigure everything in terms of how bad the greek economy is and how much more they need. the imf is assuming growth for this year is 0%. they are in recession right now. there's no certainty that greece is going to have a 0% growth rate. could be negative. imf assumes 2% for next year, then 3%. that is remarkably optimistic. we talk a lot about polls. in germany, even if you have a yes vote or no vote, you are going to have a public that is fed up with greece. here is a business newspaper. here's the way they see what is happening in greece. mr. tsipras putting a gun to his head, saying, give me more money

or else i'll shoot. we also have new polling. they are saying 68% of the fault for the current crisis falls to the greek government. i would be remiss if i didn't hold up this. they are asking german voters what they should do. should we continue to support greece with millions of taxpayer dollars? they want people to check yes or no. the only reason i was able to show you the front page, i would like to do it every morning, but sometimes there is nudity on there. jonathan: i'm not going to go there. i'm going to keep this legitimate and bring erik schatzker back into the conversation. you see how this is playing out in the german press. i'm interested in how this is playing out on the ground in athens. we are not seeing riots. as you go through the weekend, what is the kind of country we could wake up to if these guys vote no?

we may find out as early as sunday night. it is in the final stretch. what you see happening now is campaigning. campaigning by the no side, which is supported by the government, and campaigning by the yes side as well, although i will point out that from what i see, they are less organized. i have seen a lot of leaflets for the no side, not so much for the yes side. there will be rallies for both time,at 7:30 p.m. athens 5:30 p.m. london time today. there will be more over the weekend. sunday night, the polls close at 7:00 p.m. athens time, 5:00 p.m. london time. it may not be that long after when we get an official result. an exit poll should give us a decent idea. if it is going to be a yes vote, which is to say in favor of a bailout package, you can count on the radical left and the and

artists to mobilize in the streets. a at staket is here. those were the people throwing stones and molotov cocktails a few years ago. they could be back at it. it does depend on the outcome of that referendum. jonathan: erik schatzker, brilliant work. from berlin, hans nichols. we are going to bring you live coverage of sunday's referendum on bloomberg tv. crisis"watch "greece in on sunday, july 5. guests for in our the hour. yesterday, something happened. the ecb did something that didn't get a lot of attention. they expanded the shopping list. they didn't increase the qe program. we would have seen big moves in the market. expanding the pool of assets,

talk to me about that. guest: that is one of the reasons why we like the european corporate bond market. there is the possibility that they will start buying corporate bonds. -- thati was actually was actually just part of their program. i don't think it was a response to greece. jonathan: coincidence? ramin: potentially. jonathan: does the poll and the referendum really have an impact on whether they exit or not? surely, it is not that straightforward? it has a massive impact on the probability of grexit. we think with yes, the probability is something like 20%. if they say no, it goes up to 70%. i think there is a massive difference contingent on what

the referendum says. jonathan: what it will come down to is that picture right there, live pictures of banks in athens. it will come down to whether the theis prepared to start greek financial system with cash. whether the greeks can get more money to recap the banks. you can't do that with the euro, you need a new currency. that is what it comes down to. at the end point, the ecb will be the one holding the gun. do you think ecb president mario draghi wants to be that man? ramin: he has rules that he has to keep two. the terms of the treaties are very clear. he can't fund a government which is insolvent. that is very clear. i think his hands are tied. i think he will backstop the countries which are in the fold. if you look at the spreads on those countries, the market believes there won't be contagion because those are

backstopped by the ecb. jonathan: you were expressing short-term uncertainty, a selloff in europe with a longer-term call more optimistic. you did that through options. how has that developed? option which a put expired on june 19. that was a great call. nobody agreed with me in march. now, we are saying people should buy long dated calls on u.s. stocks. it is producing a fantastic entry point for that market. i've actually made money through this greek crisis. jonathan: you are also selling a september perk. given that we may see action heightening up, how confident are you around that? ramin: we have kind of cashed it in massively and gone for this call option, a long dated, basically a bet on earnings in

europe. we think earnings will improve massively. in is optimistic and he will stay with us. is he optimistic about china? the shanghai composite sees its biggest three-week route since 1992. and, we will look at the potential fallout from sunday's vote. and, bp pays billions. we will look at the record settlement over the spill. we will be back for more. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back. we are about 18 minutes into the trading session in europe. stocks are a little bit lower. the dax down by about 0.1%. have a look at the rest of the eurozone. aboutc 40 also lower by 0.1%. some breaking headlines i want to get to from greek finance minister yanis varoufakis. we were talking about that proposal from the imf. it is a debt sustainability analysis. they say the country will need 36 billion euros from eurozone states over the next three years. varoufakis calling the proposal music to his ears. he says, the troika disagrees with one another. words, i don't believe it is too late for a deal. this is going to go on and on.

for now, let's take a five-minute break and talk about china. the country's benchmark index suffered steepest three-week tech line since 1992. shares have erased more than two point trillion dollars of value off the benchmark. let's get the latest from stephen engle in hong kong. he has been watching the moves and trying to keep up with what is happening in shanghai. some questions about the government's efforts to control this. i asked whether they should lost -- whether they lost control. i guess we should ask whether they are trying to control it. stephen: should they be putting these backdrops in place? basically, this is a confidence game. there are very few investing opportunities for the average chinese. these are the mom and pops. there tends to be a herd mentality. the regulator was out midweek

saying, act rationally, urging calm, saying, don't listen to all the shorting china rumors that are out there. there might be more sophisticated investors playing and you are going to be burned. that is what has been happening. despite all the different measures from the government, whether it was relaxation of rules, cutting of transaction fees, the triple interest rate cuts that we saw on saturday, the lending rate, none of that really stemmed the slide of these shares. today, shanghai composite down 5.7%. shenzhen down 5.3%. the peak was just three weeks ago today. this market down 28.6%. shenzhen down 33%. the regulator was out with some warning, premarket today. they will lead an

investigation on possible cross market manipulation. it will strictly punish those found to be manipulating the market through shortselling activity on the index futures. they did suspend the accounts of about 19 short-sellers for a month. again, that is a very small number. that is probably not going to be reflective in any upside for the market. it was a vicious week. , wethan: the word panic shouldn't throw that around loosely, but am i seeing panic selling and panic reaction? say whati can just people have been telling me. from their perspective, the government, there was a little bit of desperation. those measures were not putting a floor on this correction, or crash.

i do have a quote from bernard. he says the mood is verging on panic. extremely hard to calm a bear who is in a rage. bnp paribas telling investors to buy shares of chinese brokerages, arguing that the government will do "whatever it takes" to restore confidence in the stock market. bnp paribas says, buy brokerages. i'm not sure anybody is taking advice to buy anything in this market. jonathan: stephen engle in hong kong, thank you for joining us. we are back with ramin nakita. it is not my job to make trade suggestions. why would you want to buy chinese brokerages? ramin: some of the stocks look cheap and fundamentally valued. i think they are all kind of a hopeless basket case. but i think we keep away from

that market. there are better opportunities elsewhere. we think europe is good and japan is good. the amount of risk you take for the reward you get would not be worthwhile. jonathan: final question on china. we wrote a lovely piece on bloomberg.com yesterday, and the chart on it shows the market cap of the shanghai composite. we are talking about over 10 times greece's gdp. going forward, this situation in china, when does it become risk off for global markets? jonathan: i -- ramin: i think it is fairly self-contained. i think the causality will go the other way. i think greece will probably weigh on china too. we didn't see such a big impact in em. some of the em countries are actually the safe haven places. china didn't selloff as much on that debt. jonathan: let's talk about the

fed and have a look at the u.s. the next job report for june. some 432,000 people left the workforce. that sent the participation rate to the lowest level since 1977. our guest weighed in on the number and what it means for janet yellen. >> i think this report shows that the recovery is continuing at the pace we've seen, for a while. >> we have to recognize that it may not be the case that you grow 4%, 5%, after a recession any longer. we are used to having recessions every seven years. >> stan fisher and yellen are clearly classically demand-driven economists. the ground under them is shifting. it includes asset bubbles and their prevention. june-like jobting

numbers, no wage growth, i don't think they will move in september or december. jonathan: wages, wages, wages. we've been doing this for six years. at one point do i sit here and say, it is not cyclical, and the fed can do nothing about it? ramin: the payrolls number was kind of disappointing. the participation rate was disappointing. there does seem to be extra slack in the labor market. a lot of people who are long-term unemployed, maybe their provider is willing to take a pay cut. of course, this is a great story for u.s. margins. they are much higher than europe. europe is now catching up. that is the kind of lit side of the argument -- flipside of the argument. we are forecasting over 6% earnings growth this year.

actually, this is a good story for u.s. equities. jonathan: the call for the first hike? ramin: we are still saying september. jonathan: with conviction? ramin: our economist has conviction. he's been doing it for 50 years. jonathan: ramin nakisa, he's going to stay with us. up next, we are back live in athens. bloomberg polling data tells us the vote is to post a call. we will bring you the details live after the break. for now, i'm looking at equities just a little bit lower. here in london, we are off by 0.1%. the dax dead flat. 0.25%.x down about downhanghai composite 5.77%. the biggest three-week rout in china since 1992. we will head out to athens again.

we are back after this short break. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg tv. i'm jonathan ferro live from the city of london. here's a picture of the markets across europe. the ftse 100 down by about 0.1%. the dax almost dead flat as well. the big moves have been in shanghai. a lot of uncertainty as we approach the weekend. no one really's nose what the outcome will be. difficult, isn't it? have a look at the asset classes outside of equities. in fx, euro-dollar, 1.11. euro-sterling, off the lows for

the year. in germany, yields unchanged. headed for the biggest weekly drop since march. we are down 0.7%, 5% on the week. u.s. rowing in the we will talk about oil later. let's lift the lid on the stoxx 600. jon.: thanks, here's what i am watching. n offer,s rejected a saying it was too low. it lacked information on plans, particularly job security for its employees. they have said they can address these concerns and that the offer isn't based on closing minds, selling the stock business, or cutting jobs. we are seeing the share rise on

that news. it is one of the biggest gainers on the stoxx 600. another one creeping into that list is bp. it is up almost 1.5% today. yesterday, it gained 4% on the news that it reached a record $18.7 billion settlement to settle all federal and state claims for the 2010 deepwater horizon oil spill. it is a big number. it is the biggest settlement for a single entity in u.s. history. the number could be higher when you take into account other costs. a lot of it is likely to be tax-deductible. investors probably feeling good about the fact that it looks like the work is over. finally, tell a loyal, another oil company. shares climbed the most in three weeks yesterday. down today.g some we are seeing oil prices

declined today. jonathan: thank you very much. crude and the oil makers in focus once again. they were for much of the first quarter of 2015. the greek crisis remains front and center. our guest from around the world continue to weigh in on the crisis. take a listen. want tothink they don't have a spoiler effect on other economies. i think greece is unique and the deal will get worked out. >> i find fault on both sides but i wouldn't blame the greeks. >> i think a haircut is in the gree of 30 to 50% to get ce back on its feet. >> tsipras has only said one truth, that greece will be unrecognizable in six months. we are not going to let him get us back into the drachma. we are for the euro and we will

win on sunday. brilliantsome interviews on greece are available in full on bloomberg.com. erik schatzker is in athens. he's got a guest standing by. over to you. erik: thank you, jon. this is mariana. she is a professor of business ethics here in athens for a conference, and also to cast her vote in this sunday's referendum. contemplatingy both scenarios. that they yes side wins and once a bailout, or the government prevails with a no vote, rejecting the eurozone offered. let's start with yes. >> thank you very much. in either case, the government will respect the greek thatation and any decision will be the outcome of this referendum. what will happen specifically?

there are different views on that. if the yes vote rebels, the greek population accepts the harsh reality of further austerity. if -- erik: there is a strong tradition in this country of extreme leftists. what are they going to do if greece says we can live with more austerity? these are the people who helped syriza sweep to power in january. >> it is not a little austerity, to start with. is a fringe.nt they are not represented in the parliament. they will be very vocal and perhaps will stage a demonstration, but i don't expect major demonstrations in athens. erik: what is the world to think if come sunday night or monday morning, we see repeated what we witnessed three years ago, molotov cocktails, stones,

protests, the army? what is the world to think? >> different people can express themselves the way they choose to. i think the government and the greek population by and large is opposed to those type of demonstrations. those people don't represent the greek population. these are fringe groups. erik: here is an important question. what is it that the greek people are voting on? what do they think they are voting on? >> it depends whom you ask. people who are inclined to vote thinkingare actually that the situation they've been living through for the last 5-6 years is unlivable. erik: there is a lot of truth to that. >> most economists would agree with that.

the imf seems to support the view. if you ask people who are inclined to vote yes, it is a lot of scare tactics in operation. media owned by the oligarchs in greece and the people who are responsible for the predicament, they are united for a yes vote. that makes me pause. cast the voteg to as if it is a vote for greece's position in europe. most greek people see that greece should be in europe. erik: i would have jumped to the assumption that you would be sympathetic to the yes vote. it sounds like you at least have some sympathy for the no side. >> i'm a professor of business ethics. i think the society that gives people chances to fulfill

,hemselves is the right society the society i want to live in. in that sense, i think that exacerbated,ated, the inequalities that greece suffered for decades. for me, the main issue is to improve governance of the country and address any qualities that have been exacerbated. erik: thank you very much. a professor of business ethics. she will be voting in the referendum. back to you in london. jonathan: thank you very much. we are going to bring you some live coverage of sunday's referendum. keep it right here on bloomberg television. you can watch a special report from 11:00 p.m. u.k. time. ramin nakisa is still next to me. he has to get up very early on sunday, yes sunday.

going to talk to him after the break. still to come, we talk commodities. oil headed for its biggest weekly drop in smart. details after the break. ♪

jonathan: welcome back. let's get you up to speed. greece is divided right down the middle heading into sunday's referendum. a bloomberg will shows 43%

intend to vote no, while the poll shows 42.5% backing a yes to accept the conditions. china's benchmark index suffered its steepest three-week decline since 1992. shares erased more than two point trillion dollars in value off the benchmark index. care giant etna has agreed to buy the second-largest provider of medicare insurance for $37 billion in cash and stock. the deal is about 23% above its last close. in the oil majors, a five-your saga, is it about two end? b.p. reached a record $18.7 billion deal with the u.s. government to settle claims from the 2010 spill. shares rose after the agreement was announced. let's get the deal tales -- the

details from nejra cehic. of course, we are talking about a big number, $18.7 billion. that includes cover for federal penalties under the clean water act. they amount to $5.5 billion. also, five gulf coast states are going to get payouts. we had a statement from the pb ceo saying that this will resolve the largest liabilities remaining from the tragic accident. this in fact is the biggest settlement for a single entity in u.s. history. the thing is, the preliminary agreement spaces out the payments over as much as 18 years. not only that, but we are told a lot of it could be tax-deductible. this settlement comes after a change in strategy from bp. it had been fighting claims in court for the past two years.

the impact of falling oil prices has federal judges putting a potential $13.7 billion price tag on clean water act violations, basically motivating bp to change tactics. jonathan: a lot of people will have this stock in their pensions. they will be asking, could cost the higher? what is the answer to that? nejra: great question. i'm afraid they could be. the settlement is going to cost bp more than $20 million when other payments are factored in. then, it also comes on top of billions already spent on response, cleanup, and compensation, pushing bp to raise its budget to $53.8 billion. even that may not be enough. one lawyer said the cost could reach $70 billion.

we've also got investors, residents, and businesses that didn't join a 2012 settlement still demanding billions. the reason investors are feeling better is that the biggest threat seems to be gone. jonathan: thank you. bp having the biggest two-day pop since february this year. oil heading for its biggest weekly drop since march as the recount in the u.s. rose in the last week. producers will add to an already oversupplied market. we are back with ramin nakisa. i look at the rig count. we were obsessed with the rig count. it is coming back. is that the beginning of a trend backup? ramin: i think what concerns me is the small companies which have issued in the high-yield market. this delayed effect of the falling price of oil, we should be just starting to feel it now. a lot of those companies have

hedges on. a lot of them have a little bit of lenience. i think now, we are going to see that pick up. jonathan: you and i talked about the high-yield market and the allocation, or the amount of that space that was attributed to energy. it was, what, 15%, 18%? the issue was, it wasn't these guys issuing debt in the public space. a lot of guys step in to fill the void. ramin: i think it is simply balance sheet weakness. they expected the price of oil to go up. if it doesn't, they will have problems servicing that debt. i think the delayed effect should start now. we think in on him it will pick up. i think liquidity is absolutely key. it may cause contagion for other assets. maybe even u.s. equities. were sittingn we

here through july, august, september, october, etc., everyone said this was great news for the general economy. we can see how it may give in europe a boost. for the u.s., i can't see that. they would say the u.s. would be the biggest in a fishery. why has that not played out? ramin: the u.s. is on the cusp of becoming the biggest exporter. for them, it wasn't so clear where there would be a benefit or a drag to their economy. when we did our simulation, the u.s. was -- it was europe that would gain the most. u.k.,an: in terms of the the boost that it has given europe, how long is that going to last? discussions.ous some say it could be another 12 months. once these figures dropped out, when does it start to bite? when will oil prices move back

from 40 to 65? ramin: as we do see the oil price fall, for example in the u.k., that has started to have an already, then we start to see a policy impact. we will start to think about raising rates. you could have an impact on the bank of england's policy. jonathan: ramin nakisa, sunday night, monday morning, what time are you waking up? ramin: about 5:00. jonathan: that is nothing. i will be up way earlier. running the relaxed about the weekend. coming up on this show, what do chinese stocks have to do with greece? the shanghai comp looks about 10 times greek gdp in 10 weeks. we will chart that for you after the break. ridek ahead to a rough that could be this weekend as greece goes to the polls. ♪

i am allergic to extending and pretending. >> if there is a yes vote, you will not be finance minister? >> there will not be a yes vote. >> you won't sign a deal without debt reorganization? >> i'm prepared to cut my arm off.

jonathan: they were some of the highlights from guy johnson's brilliant interview with greek finance minister yanis varoufakis. you can find that on bloomberg.com. keep it right here on bloomberg tv throughout the weekend. we will bring you special coverage of the greek referendum. tune in for that. let's wrap up the week. while your holds its breath -- while europe holds its breath, check out chinese equities. a crazy three-week plunge as wiped out about $2.8 trillion of market value. that is about 10 times greece's gdp last year. that brings us to our next chart. greeks are split right down the middle. a bloomberg poll shows 43% intend to vote no. 42.5% back the yes camp to accept the conditions. greece starting to infiltrate its way into europe currency wars.

we got a surprise interest rate cut from sweden. the euro jumped against the krone on the news. it looks like the bank is trying to curb demand on the krona. been a busy week for markets. let's get a wrapup on fridays trading session's first hour with mark barton. mark: i want to put the last week in perspective. there's been a lot of noise. let's look at how equities have performed since tsipras told that referendum after the markets closed last friday. this is the msci world index. this is an index of global developed and developing markets. down by 1.6%.is that's the worst week since march. this week, $780 billion has been wiped off the value of global

equities. the record was set may 21. since then, stock markets globally have lost 4%. that's the first chart i wanted to show you. the second chart is the new zealand dollar, the least loved currency in the world. we talked about the euro, the swedish krona after the central bank took rates even further into negative territory. do not ignore the new zealand dollar. it has fallen for a record 11 consecutive weeks against the u.s. currency. it is at its lowest level since june 2010. i've looked at its performance against every major currency in the world this week. it has fallen against every one of them. that is 31 of them. falling milk prices are amplifying speculation the nation's central bank will cut interest rates. we got u.s. farmers tending some

of their milk, because they can't find buyers with global output climbing to unprecedented highs. keep an eye on that currency. get back in here. i want to show you the chinese stock market since the record high on june 12. i've looked at all the global stock markets. since then, look at the bottom one. the shanghai composite down by 29%, falling for three consecutive weeks. the worst three-weekly fall since 1992. the second worst performer, h-shares listed in hong kong. it has been a horrible fall. tick tock, tick tock, tick tock. jonathan: mark barton watching the clock countdown. thank you very much for joining us throughout the morning. that is it for "on the move." "the pulse" is up next.

estimated 80 million euros in exports will be lost each week as a result of capital controls. stay with bloomberg for that interview. in the meantime, you can follow me on twitter. good luck for the rest of your day. have a brilliant weekend. you are looking at a live shot of a beautiful city of london. happy friday. more from bloomberg tv after the break. equities in london a little bit softer. the dax just in positive territory. a turnaround in the bond market. good morning. ♪

manus: too close to call. as greece prepares to vote on whether to accept bailout conditions, an exclusive bloomberg poll shows the result is on a knife edge. francine: plugging the hole. the imf says greece needs at least another 36 billion euros over the next three years. manus: the shanghai slump continues. chinese equities suffer their sincet three-week rout 1992, sparking a government investigation into possible market manipulation. francine: megamerger. u.s. health care benefits giant aetna