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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  July 7, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT

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u.s. stocks rebounding after the s&p dropped in more than 1% early in the day, falling through the pivotal 200 day moving average. market equities plunging amid a major selloff in commodities. the question is, what did you miss? alix: cyprus promises new proposals. will they be enough to fend off an exit. the energy trade falls off a cliff. we spoke to the ceo of a major power generator about how he is hedging his bets. in athens this
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the latesth all details and analysis. first, we want to get to what happened in the market in the u.s.. it was a stunning reversal for markets. a huge comeback. at one point, major averages were down over 1% and they have clawed their way higher. dow had a 20 six point swing. utilities and consumer staples leave the market. energy's and materials and industrials lag. it was a stunning reversal on a day where we saw more volume than normal. let's get right to julie hyman who was looking at some of these big market movers. julie: a lot of slings in the session. consumer staples, energy shares turned around. there was a move and utilities. this has been interesting group. year to date, the worst performance group. you cancer the philadelphia today. index up 2.5%
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this coincided with a drop in the 10 year yield to a one-month low. initially today, as we saw this selloff in stocks, we saw people buying treasuries, yield falling. that actually sort of accelerated as the day went on. philadelphia utility index versus the is-year treasury yield -- it almost a perfect inverse relationship. it has been over the past year or so. why isthe reasons utilities tend to have relatively high levels of debt. also they have relatively high dividend yield so you see a competition between the yields on these utility stocks and yields on treasury. in other words, the lower the yield, the better news for these utility stocks. thank you. the count up clock stands at
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100,003 at the 72 days since our today was aion and huge indication. i want to take a dive into my bloomberg terminal. let's look at two charts of why you should be scared about china. is iron ore. they broke through their $50 a ton level. orekson security says iron will extend those declines. take a look at this other charge. is the aussie dollar as the proxy for china. around 35% of australian exports are consumed by china according to deutsche bank. we have had a slide in the aussie dollar since the stock market started to fall. it below that 75 per u.s. cents level.
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let's get back to my coanchor who is on the ground in athens. thank you. i'm here with a member of parliament. to buy during much for joining us. -- thank you very much for joining us. are you optimistic they will get a deal? >> yes, in fact, i have read from several persons, including from the minister of finance who report that the climate was cordial and he is quite optimistic that we will be able to pursue a strategy that finds common ground with our creditors and weopean partners very much look forward to tomorrow. was some nervousness today that the fact that
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representatives of your government showed up without anything written but you say that they're happy with the results they got and you fill optimistic that talks can be productive at this point. >> >> absolutely. the prime minister will be introducing the key points of the negotiating team that will be following him. and we are very optimistic that , thee next eurogroup grounds upon which we can build up the agreement that will be mutually beneficial for our people and europe will definitely be put in place. joe: i want to look at the big picture. there has been some question about how committed your government is to truly staying in the euro. are they committed to doing everything possible to not leave the eurozone? government has been committed to staying in the eurozone and not even consider a currency other than the hero.
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.rom the very -- then the euro from the very beginning, there was a commitment and the commitment remains. had we wanted to exit the eurozone, there were many opportunities to have done that. the answer is absolutely yes, the commitment is as strong as ever. banks limitedeen for about a week now. there is so much money people can take out of atms. how long can this last? think it is extraordinary how con the people are and focused some media have singularly on the long lines outside atm machines, the population is very calm and we are confident that within the week, there will be a definite resolution, a short-term bridge agreement that will allow the banks to reopen. joe: this week? >> yes.
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joe: thank you very much. back to you. alix: thank you so much. joining me here on set is mike reagan. when you see what happened with stocks today, what matters more, greece or china? toe: i think it is hard point at one issue today that caused this rebound. there is a 200 day moving average which sort of works as a milepost for investors or algorithms to look at the market and say is it really this bad? it becomes an overhang that the market has to play through but that is a good sign. that shows there are investors willing to buy these dips. the news flow out of greece definitely was improving today. it sounds like they are talking again, negotiations are upcoming , and there is still the chance of a deal before the default on
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the ecb loan. people are optimistic about that but it seems more like a technical bounce. alix: that's what it seemed like an commodities also. what is going on here in the u.s. a second-quarter earnings season is upon us. alcoa reporting after the bell tomorrow. what will be driving growth? will it be real earnings or dividends? chartis a great delineating what portion of s&p earnings rely on earnings versus buy back. it is encouraging. the rat against earnings in america the last few years have been driven by buybacks. it reduces the share count for stock and therefore artificially boosts the earnings per share. that chart shows is not all about buybacks. looking at the estimates for this year, buybacks are more than half of the earnings growth this year. that is kind of scary. as far as the quarter coming up,
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this could potentially be -- and we have said this before -- analysts have said earnings will go down. it is looking at a 6.5% drop in earnings. every other time they have undershot it and earnings have come up positive. last quarter, it was very small, less than 1%. this will be a big hurdle for them to jump. -6% growth is the estimate. is way tooe the bar low and we will have some growth but even if there is growth, it will be very small. if you take out energy, the actual earnings growth is much more than buybacks for this year. in terms of growth versus earnings and revenue, there is another chart that talked about the correlation between the two and basically for every 1% change in nominal gdp, you are
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looking at 80% change in revenue. ofare .2 negative percent gdp for the first quarter. mike: a pretty amazing chart. head around why that would be such a supply or like that but we have had a negative first quarter ended corresponds with what we saw in the first quarter. thank you so much for your insight. mike reagan. coming up, a real power player. you will hear from the ceo of dynegy about how he is hedging against commodity prices.
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alix: we are live in new york and athens tonight to give you the latest on the debt crisis in
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greece. we will bring you live reports from the ground in a moment but first, a look at some headlines. or robbery is tuesday in you beyond to help manage its ipo here in new york later this year. -- ferrari. ist laden fiat chrysler program.nd investment the army planning to cut 40,000 troops. 17,000 civilian employees will be let go. the army would have 400 50,000 soldiers by the end of the 2017 budget year. the newspaper said the reductions are due to budget constraints. donald trump is losing yet another partner. this time, the pga which says it is in the best interest of all not to play this year's pga grand slam of golf at the trump
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national course in los angeles. trump called it a mutual decision. cap got himself in hot water for recent comments he made about mexican immigrants. -- trump got himself in trouble. from using colder natural gas and one company in this transition is dynegy. i got a chance to speak with their ceo and i asked him about he think the when he sees this big slide in oil and natural gas prices we saw today. >> for us, power is generally priced off of natural gas so if natural gas is falling, it drives power prices lower which is generally not a good thing for us. alix: what does that mean? you make less money when natural gas wells? >> our prices go down so as we sell energy into the wholesale market, we sell it at a lower price. what we have seen recently is the combination of no hot summer weather in the mid-atlantic and east and the fall off of gas
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prices. we see incredibly low-power prices. the low-power prices. alix: your product is natural gas and coal. a somewhat compete against each other. what is your outlook for prices? >> for prices of natural gas, with the amount of supply in the assets we have gas sitting right on top of the gas reserves. we tend to buy gas lower than others so that softens the blow for us but the general outlook longer-term is that gas prices will be range bound while the supply continues to exceed the demand. i think it will take until you start exporting natural gas and start using l lynn g shipping g. abroad and -- l and that will help the supply.
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alix: as natural gas prices attractivemes more for the end-user which means coal is less attractive. how do you match this play when your product makeup is both? gas prices come down, are gas prices can -- assets can do ok. that is when our coal plants really become in the money which illustrates kind of the natural hedge in our portfolio but what you need to do during these times as you have to hang in there, manager cost, and recognize that there are other dynamics happening in the power not just about natural gas anymore. you see a dramatic decline in supply with assets and that will drive higher capacity prices and more x entered units will set the price for power. units will set the price
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for power. alix: you have about $1.2 billion for capital allocation over the next two years. what is the relationship between a capital allocation plan and hammadi prices? is largelyfolio open. as power prices come down, it would reduce the amount of capital we have to allocate. if they go up, you have more to allocate. there is a little bit more than gas prices that will drive that cash flow generation we have. it will be the retirement of assets, capacity prices being drive a certain level of revenue that gives us that capital to allocate. certainly, higher natural gas prices will help that cause as well as. alix: another part of your business is cold. the supreme court gave utilities a break at the end of june. what do companies -- i wanted
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companies like yourself to clean up their coal plants. did that make you rethink any coal strategies? >> we retired are noneconomic plants. we retired them a couple of years ago. we are supportive of the world requirements. being the difficulties in a power generator in the country is these rules come in and go out. you're talking about assets that last four years and you make will you and with these rules coming in and out come it makes it difficult to plan for the future but for us, we have the portfolio that is environmentally compliant. let's focus on the future, not keep going back. we find it disruptive to the business that these rules keep
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coming in and out. alix: on days like today, are you rethinking your new herbal strategy -- your renewable strategy? premise for an investment is we are in the power markets that you want to be in and between the environmental morals and -- environmental rules and lower natural gas prices, supply is getting tighter. what you see in the next few years is our prices go up the kospi supply fight has gone down and the rules around how you get capacity payments are tightening. for those with products into the alwaysthat have not perform, you now get paid for the quality of your assets and that will be a benefit. alix: coming up, we head back to athens and joe visits a greek startup to figure out how they are dealing with the country's crisis.
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alix: our top story of the day is greece but in athens, there is one thing you may have missed. joe will show you. morning, i visited a tech incubator to see how tech startups and greece are dealing with capital controls. i am outside of foundation, a tech excel or rader in athens -- accelerator in athens. let's check it out. i am. is about the issue of brain
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drain for people who are engineers and coders. have you witnessed a lot of people leaving greece to other countries where the conditions are better? >> we have. the problem we have to face is how you create an environment that makes these people want to stay. and the other, how you provide an environment that is appealing enough for people that already left to come back. joe: what do politicians need to understand? >> they need to understand that they need to provide a stable environment. maybe it has to do with certain changes in the tax resume -- regime. joe: i'm interested in how do companies that are web-based operating environment where many of the services they pay for are not even allowed to under
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capital controls? >> the capital controls imposed on the greece market actually impose a big issue for all startup communities. joe: do you think the government has paid enough attention to entrepreneurship and private enterprise? >> not actually. there have been some good first steps but i think that we have a way we work,n the we operate. for example, consider the way we handle our payments. .t is totally aligned 99.9% of all transactions are web based. joe: have you seen some companies whose operations have come to a halt? >> not yet. due to many reasons. everybody has external financing sources but as i said, this is
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not sustainable in the long run. everybodyt understands that having the banks closed can actually be only a week or two week period for us to keep operating. joe: there are a few days where you can survive without the banks but if it goes on longer, it will be a problem. >> it will be a problem, yes. joe: being in a startup is obviously difficult anywhere but in greece right now extraordinarily difficult. we will be right back.
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alix: joe is joining us again from athens. it is your third trip reporting from greece. what was your number one take away this time? i was here for the 2012 election, the election earlier this year. it is clear for the first time, people are really contemplating some very disturbing scenarios. people are very concerned i'm a seriously contemplating the possibility of life outside the eurozone. i continue to be absolutely columnists, --he , the willingness for people to talk about the situation. alix: we will see you back here on thursday. don't miss this. how colors out with earnings tomorrow after the bell and here is the number one chart you need -- alcoa out with earnings tomorrow. this is where they see global sales for the 2015 key markets. aerospace up 10%.
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automotive's perhaps a 4% growth. of course, building and construction. stay tuned, we will cover all you need to know a
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names billeymonkey veghte as its new chief executive. we have an exclusive interview with him. ♪ ism emily chang and this "bloomberg west." coming up, sam some -- samsung comes up short on it alex the -- on its galaxy push. plus, what could end up being it biggest asset. and the greek debt crisis is ahead.

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