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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  July 8, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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coming up, we tell you everything you need to know ahead of the conservative parties first u.k. budget since 1996. look out for that. that flight here in london. we are looking out for on the move for one stock, it is barclays. about one third of 1%. caroline: after four days. we are getting a bit of a reprieve. so many drivers today. is a china? is it the fact that $2.6 trillion worth of shares are not trading? this is the scale of the meltdown we are seeing in china or is increased? -- or is it greece? can they make it? we'll see what the market is expecting. we are seeing the cap at 10% as
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well. how it the euro is performing. we are at one dollar 1016. the emergency button. we are trading 2% lower. in terms of concern. it has been seen as a haven. i want to look at the u.s. that. money -- u.s. debt. money moving into treasuries this morning. chinese bonds have been rallying. similar in japan and germany. we are looking for that safety right now. money tentatively starting to go back into italy.
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hope that we might see some sort of deal struck in greece. finance ministers talking about all of this. let us look quickly at all of the stocks. barclays up 2.6%. euphoria potentially did when barkley comes out with his earnings, it may benefit. potentially more restructuring to come. john mcfarlane immediately making this changes, deciding to get rid of the chief executive antony jenkins. he will be the interim ceo. this particular drug maker higher. done by 3%. -- down by 3%. they reduce their forecast for
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organic sales for the year. downgrading their forecast. down goes the stock, john. ? equities in the green. the dax up by 26 points. the big focus is barclays. we will that story down for you in a moment. overnight in asia, another choppy session. let's get out to juliet sally. juliet co-not ape -- juliet: not a pretty picture. big fall still coming through. a picture of the hang seng index. there are no stocks in the green . a lot of the china mainland is dragging the whole index lower. banks and communications down at 10%. jayna my man shares listed in hong kong -- china mainland
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shares lifted in hong kong. let us have a look at some of the major moves by equity markets. at least the ones that are open. more than half of the chinese stocks have been hindered from trade today. we have had big falls coming through. securities down. closing 11%. national securities down about 11%. big falls coming through from hong kong on the shanghai. we have seen weakness across the board. aren't is a security firm as well. a number of the utility companies have been following this have been falling. even companies that have been holding up quite well recently during these routs. petro
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china down by 9%. if we go back to the asian picture, as we can expect these equities have played out across the region. down 3% on the close. the nikkei down 3%. the topic index in japan was down 3.3%. it's just drop in 17 months. -- its biggest drop in 17 months. we are matching off. in china on the shanghai comp is it -- on the shanghai composite. -- that is going to be a significant drop for hong kong. jonathan: thank you very much. some fascinating news. to $.6 trillion worth of stock wrapped up -- 2.6 $2.6
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trillion worth of stock wrapped up. -- the bank needs a change of leadership. john mcfarlane will take over as executive chairman while barclays finds a permanent replacement. mark barton has the early headlines on this story. mark: mr. jenkins will be leaving barclays. this is the price and barclays shares. 2.7% already. that is the biggest move since may 2015. investors reacting to the announcement. just a few months after john mcfarlane took over as executive chairman. fascinating to see what the reaction is also in the footsie 350 -- from the ftse 350.
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shares of barclays have actually risen by 47%. that is an increase under jenkins during his tenure. the ftse 250 index is up 17%. he has outperformed his u.k. peers. the index is up the same, by 46%. looking through the statement from barclays early this morning at 7:00, it's sting to see the comments -- it is interesting to see the comments from michael ray. this is why jenkins is leaving, notwithstanding his significant achievements. it became clear that a new set of skills are required in the
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steps ahead. do not forget that barclays was reeling from a -- he pledged to change the culture of the bank. he might have changed the culture, but as mr. mcfarlane stated "we need to reallocate capital and prioritize investment." he said that jenkins did not go far enough. the reaction is clear, barclays shares up by 2.7%. jonathan: let's get more with bloombergs manus cranny. it looks like the same old thinking story that's the same old banking story -- the same old banking story. we do not want an investment banking and more. you get rid of him, and we all sit here and say what do they want this bank to be echo -- to
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be? it is not as clear-cut, is it? manus: he grew and established one of the most respected banks at the time. but of the most lambasted. you don't want a retail banker. what do you want to accelerate the pace of execution echo jenkins -- executive -- execution? this statement goes on to say it will be a genetic change in strategy. it is a bit of a misnomer. does that mean we are looking for someone who has a different set of skills? does it mean there's going to be further downsizing and
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reallocation of capital? there is no doubt, the profitability. they are languishing at position number eight on the leaderboard. commodities and currencies. trying to do scale -- this goes back to when we had conversations with brady dougan -- with freddie dugan. that is what the chairman has said his priority would be. he would prioritize capital. that was the most interesting issue. personal consuming -- personal consumer banking is the priority. jonathan: what is the pace of execution going forward. and much faster and aggressive fashion. you bring up credit suisse and ubs. as you said down with sergio
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monti credit suisse a lot of people are calling on brady dougan to go back and be a success. not clear what barclays still is. manus: if you go back to the core of the business it is going back to investment banking. people are going to go there wafted in all soft and cuddly. talent walked for paychecks. talent left the business. we saw substantial resignations from the american side of the business. being able to pay them. it something that has come under tremendous pressure. there's a reallocation of talent. here we are. we are going to go back to the
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investment making model, what are you going to do? you're going to encourage sweep of people coming back into your business. he has hired this guy and woman. he is hiring key individuals within investment banking to build the investment banking sweep. how do you encourage people to come back to the bank? i have worked in that building. it is like four revolving doors. what is the new strategy? is it going to be back to retail banking or investment banking? on the tickets 45% return. ? they're going to be a lot of people -- jonathan: they're going to a lot of people asking if jenkins will be shedding
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tears. investors not shedding tears. as we began this conversation they're not the only bank that we set and wonder -- deutsche bank another. a change of leadership. what does a successful bank and euro -- a successful bank in europe look like? outside of ubs, i'm not sure that people know. manus: to jig its credit, he cleared up a lot of the messes and litigation -- two jenkins credit he cleared up a lot of the messes and litigation. you got the gold scandal. there are more litigious issues sitting at the front doors at one church l place -- one church
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l plahill place. what turned a chairman to decide this gentleman -- i remember when he was appointed, everyone was like he comes from a retail bank. i met him. a very congenial guy. very relaxed. he did a speech at a charity event last year. very interesting gentleman. jonathan: do not take long for john mcfarlane to decide that antony jenkins was not the man for the job. barclays stock up. equities rising across much of europe. here's what is coming up chinese markets out of control. the government try to catch a
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freefalling stock market. european leaders raise the stakes and give greece a hard deadline. we hear from alexis tsipras who speaks in 15 minutes. ever thing you need to know about the conservative party first u.k. budget since 1996. good morning. ♪
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jonathan: good morning. welcome back. this is uber tv. i am jonathan ferro.
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the big news today is china. equity. a state intervention failed to stop the biggest stock market rout. let us get more of the story from beijing bureau chief, neck. -- nick. are they supposed to be implement and market reform. is this free market, market credibility? ms. marcussen: -- nick: governments have been known to intervene in cases of crisis. the u.s. for example it so. and november 2013 china said it would give the market a more decisive role. now it seems to be entrenching a
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little bit. china is weighing those priorities which are still some of its top priorities, against losses that are hitting retail investors hard. trying to balance those two appears to be one of the top priorities for government right now. jonathan: what is the endgame here? are they trying to get the stock market to go up? are they trying to stop the rout? their reputation on the line. as we go for it is that reputation taking a hit? nick: how low can the market go? it is still up so far this year. if you are a bear, you can say there is plenty more room to fall. the question is how much this leeches and to the rest of the economy, and whether the
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government is ready to pull out the big guns to either reverse or stop this slide. so far, it's measures have not worked. it may look at new action if -- putting pressure on our sales to the price of eggs and soybeans. once it starts to go into the market, then you could see more severe measures from the government. jonathan: nick, great to have you with us. joining us live. chief investment officer, em ea, where he oversees trillion dollars in assets. hong kong's hang seng index dropping the most since 2008. when he suspended $2.6 trillion worth of stocks and you ban ipo's, the media comes out and
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says don't panic. guess what i am going to do? what you make of the reaction -- what do you make of the reaction? >> china is not only developed desk they had not kept pace with capital market illusion. -- capital market evolution. we would suggest regulations for owning chinese equities. more just and gaining china exposure -- more interested in gaining china exposure. some of the suspicions around the liquidity of the market you can enter, how can you exit? one could argue that they had been kept up to speed allowing a much broader array of investors in, you would've sorted out some of the liquidity issues.
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it is fine when they are coming in, but when they need to leave everybody is trying to get out of that door jonathan: mark:. kevin i bring it to your world. a lot of people say do not worry, the ecb will have it sorted. what is the lesson to take from the chinese experience? here we have leadership. authorities implementing all kind of measures to try and stabilize the market. is it an example when things hit the fan, that authorities can only do so much? kevin: they can only do so much. you need to focus on what the chinese authorities tried to do, versus what european authorities are joined to do. people are trying to control the stock markets, which i do not think you would have the ecb trying to do. in terms of things such as
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currency compatibility is mario draghi. i think there are more actions that authorities can successfully take. jonathan: to draw a line between what is happening in the stock market and what is happening in the economy. in a slowed down, but not a significant slowdown. the gdp around 6.5%. kevin: you have to bear in mind, the stock market in china is still on the year. that is not true of many european indices. should one worry about the wealth effect in chinese stocks? or the wealth effect of european
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stocks? we are higher on the year in china than in europe. jonathan: underneath the greece-china radar, commodities. copper being hammered monday tuesday. as you go forward, pictures for equities undermining stocks. what is that picture? forget greece. >> the market risk to the underlying economic risk as well. if you look at some of the price moves we saw. wasn't that bad or good for european growth prospects? -- was that bad or good for european growth prospects? very important for the manufacturing base in europe. we have seen the most recent energy force. the currency weakness in europe.
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isn't that a good or bad thing for the prospects of european companies? again, you can turn it from a headwind to a tailwind. will that feed through? and help companies? jonathan: mi worried about the demand for commodities? -- and i worried about the demand for commodities? wayne: if you look at g2 risk u.s. and china. there has been a slowdown. being accelerated through the management of china. they are try to soft land the economy. they are chewing to take out some of the shocks. there is an element in the reduction of demand. jonathan: they're going to stay with us. after the break, european leaders take the hardline on greece.
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we'll hear from alexis tsipras himself. here's a picture of the equity markets for you. the 5100 is up this morning. as was the dax in the earlier part of the session. the ftse up about 3/10. barclays up about 3%. the chairman says the bank may cut jobs. the ceo was asked to leave. the ftse up a quarter of 1%. talking europe and all things break -- all things greece. ♪
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it's clear and credible strategies. >> what we need to have our reforms that greece was to put in place. once we have reform puzzles, we look to conclude this as soon as possible here it just possible. >> the commission does not want it.
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>> there is no edible reform. -- there is no credible reform. >> there is a great sense of urgency. time is short. jonathan: those were comments from key leaders and the negotiations, speaking with a unified voice against alexis tsipras. in the next few minutes, we'll get european council and commission statements. junker and tsipras will bring you the headlines as they cross on bloomberg tv. this coming across as precious amount. european leaders take a much harder line. they have until friday morning to come up with a proposal and sunday to accept a rescue plan or face an exit. hans nichols is an brussels. guy johnson is is desperate guy johnson is in athens.
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what can we expect to hear from him at this point? any different from what we have heard in the last five months. guy: whether or not he has moderated his tone. in the past, mississippi's comes to brussels. he has private const -- private conversations. he goes back to athens. in this case it is going to sulzberger. he is antagonistic toward his creditors. will be got out of this meeting is a lot of clarity. we have no conclusion on what the greek packets should look like. no coalescing on any medium term or short term financing. and a short this any sort of bridge loan to open up those banks. from leaders in the past who have not used that word. we have heard that word from mr. juncker now. we have had talk about
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humanitarian aid. that could be the next package for greece. it is not going to go through financial committees. it is going to go through foreign ministers. that would happen on sunday if everything else falls through. jonathan: guy, just bring you in , we have been full by deadlines. -- we have been fooled by deadlines. to have a deadline attached to the exit from the eurozone. what happens to the banking system monday morning once we have reached the deadline? guy: i've been talking about that greece on monday morning will not be in the eurozone. clearly the anti-is being up. the language is getting tougher.
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angela merkel has given up on greece. many greeks thought that referendum gave mr. tsipras and very strong mandate to take degrees. the creditors would have to accept. that is turned out not to be the case. what do the greeks do now? can he deliver something that will allow a deal? and does not feel like that at the moment. he is very good at spinning the story. this will be -- this very tough. mario draghi was in the meeting. he says the banks have until the end of this week. the greek economy is not in great shape. cash is pulling in certain areas desk caches -- cash is pooling in certain areas. i'm not sure that it is a sunday
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night monday morning story. this is just one of the points on that journey. jonathan: as guy says, it is not an event, it is a process. are the leaders becoming more comfortable with the possibility of an exit from the eurozone? or is this another negotiation tactic? hans: you cannot discount the process. it seems like something shifted last night, when you heard leaders are not talked about grexit actually utter those words. the finance ministers meeting yesterday, mr. sharma brought it up. he wants to know what the plans were if we did not have an
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agreement here to capture the tone it was the type -- it was the prime minister of -- he said we still hope for a miracle. that is what creditors believe greece is going to need to do to come up with some sort of proposal. they will discuss it over the weekend and on sunday, we should know whether or not eu leaders can release more aid through financial means. if not, we are talking humanitarian aid. jonathan: guy johnson, the bloomberg teams. kevin daly, senior economist at goldman sachs. kevin, news out of brussels suggests this might be heading one way 20 grexit. -- one way toward the grexit.
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are you waiting for the can kick? kevin: greece will find a way of staying in or some accommodation will be found. we now have a clear deadline around sunday. the risk of grexit has risen significantly. we expect some accommodation to be found. ? when we talk about risk, we talk about this process. people need to be paid pensions. whether they choose to go down the parallel currency route -- that is a most the process of the exit. it's that the series of event the mix up the exit? kevin: the term cash is king has not been around for several hundred years. we would suggest there has been an inching along the grexit route. it would be an accidental
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default. we did not know why we got here. there is a couple of points. the market reaction has been reasonably muted. isn't that a monday morning -- jonathan: it hit this year. we have seen the fallout in the equity market. when you look at the fallout, are you a buyer? wayne: i suggest there are long-term investors waiting for capitulation trade to move back into europe. if you look at the fundamentals of europe from a long-term perspective, we have seen an improvement in the recovery for a broader europe that is not been stellar or dramatic. if you look at longer-term valuations europe seemed to have fair value.
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we took the but china earlier. you could also argue from the u.s. large-cap perspective as well. people are looking from an entry point as well as the next it. i do not see -- because of the lack of understanding around the political system here to be worried that greece has from an overhand point of view. instinct to see how the crystallization of this can affect investor flow. jonathan: being worried, you look at the hard data. let's pretend that greece did not happen at all, you would think things were picking up. they look pretty good. kevin: i disagree with wayne. the fundament of drivers actually look pretty positive. we have oil prices their week.
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the euro weakening from the middle of last year onward. credit availability has been improving significantly. the risk size, there are clear signs we are in a optimistic growth. assuming that the greek crisis does not result in a big rise -- jonathan: and final question to you wayne. a key kid line -- a key deadline . you're leaving work. what does that look like? wayne: we would expect to see the ecb switch -- we would protect europe. we would not expect both the eu
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ecb to allow broader europe to fall into a recession. we would expect more quantitative using. more support for the broader european economy. i do not expect a deterioration because of greece. i would expect more action especially driven from the ecb. jonathan: we were talking about the ecb running out of on to buy. when, thank you very much. heaven daily, stay with us. it is budget day here in the u k we are here for a preview. will be speaking to director general for the cbi. we get reactions from goldman sachs as well. jonassen two.
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back. 44 minutes into the trading session here in europe. the ftse 100 is pretty much dead flat. barclays stocks want to watch. antony jenkins is no longer ceo. barclays stock up 2.8%. will he make it? the shanghai comp is it swinging just the shanghai deposit swinging. -- the shanghai composite swinging. a weaker euro was the story for the last couple of days. one dollar --1 $1.1022.
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anna: think you very much. good morning to you. let us get to our guest. john, thank you for joining us. he was going through some of the stresses of a moving market today here it about greece and china. british business concern about those things. concern about a vote on grexit as well. grexit we have more uncertainty around the world. i can remember most of my professional life. it is a sing that that investment is not on pause. we are getting on with it,
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because businesses need to improve and grow. some good economic prospects out there, particularly for the british economy. i like the chancellor to outline the investment. particular a by growing companies. the medium-size companies in the economy. they are the heart of our recovery. they get that investment over the line. anna: the banks of very topical today. the news around barclays. very topical here at wes mr. as well. -- here at westminster as well. does that matchup to the cbi? jonathan: most of the businesses as before are small or medium-sized companies. they are dependent on the banks getting back to normal. delivering to the main street of the economy.
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they want banks to be successful. we saw the mansion house speech. the chancellor giving positive language about the importance of the city. i hope today he gives banks encouragement to get back to a normal business. anna: i spoke to the bcc, they want to see funding flowing to smaller businesses. this is the economy we have been talking about since the financial crisis. is there anything they can do to put things in place to help that? what more can be done? echo the problem has moved on. john: couple of years ago we are talking about -- we've got a much more instinct challenge. a patient capital to help business grow. the big challenge for banks and government's export finance. we need these off the nose on planes to mexico city and
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jakarta. we want to spend money on british services. you need export finance support. of course, there are challenges for banks. their moving from challenges of problems to challenges of success. anna: does it mean that the u.k. government supports -- john: we need a plan to get behind growing businesses. help them with skills and infrastructure. provide the ancient capital to get them into the export markets. that is what i want today from the chancellor's budget. anna: jon ferro in the studio, back to you. jonathan: let us get some final thoughts from kevin daly. kevin, you're calling this one of the most important budgets in the last five years.
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kevin: in this budget, you will get spending plans not only for the coming year, but also for the whole of the next part of it. it is likely to be the most important budget for five years. jonathan: budget deficit, we have talked about that. the austerity this and that. kevin: the bad news is the deficit last year was still 5% of gdp. giving desk given the improvement in the economy, it is safe to say it is not justifiable by circumstance anymore. there is still quite a bit -- the good news is that the task of reducing the deficit seems more manageable than it did three much ago. the tax revenues have been better. taking both of those together
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we think this year is going to come around 15 billion pounds less. jonathan: the easiest way is to to grow. i look at the growth figures from bank of england, the forecast -- the longer i go out, the murkier it gets. the potential for grexit on one hand. beyond 2015 is that clear? kevin: visibility is never that clear. we have had a lot of uncertainty now for a long time. pretty much every summer, there seems to be some description. the economy has gotten to where we need to just get on with it.
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if there is a bad outcome on sunday, from the greek negotiation we are focused on that. prospects are relatively good. ? where his goldman sachs -- jonathan: his goldman sachs right now? kevin: we expect more fiscal adjustment and eight -- in an accelerated -- ? kevin daly, -- jonathan: kevin daly, goldman sachs. at 4:00 p.m. i will bring you a special program. after the break, it has been a busy day for the markets. a lot more to come. we'll go through some of the big news -- some of the big moves.
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we'll be back after this short break. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. let me bring you the greek agenda. the ecb a review emergency liquidity assistance to greece lenders. finance ministers stand ready to hold a compass call. that deadline for the proposal is friday morning.
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european leaders have set a sunday deadline for greece to accept a plan. meanwhile, coming up for the rest of the day. at 12:30 u.k. time, george's here. is the first conservative budget since 1996. the u.s. market closed. after that alkaline kicks off. coming up, mark barton is on the markets. i know he is looking at one start. arco -- mark: it is barclays biggest rise, up by 3%. that is the intraday move. this is barclays under antony jenkins. since 2012, barclays stocks up 47%. the ftse 250 bank index up by 17%. some missing headlines from the
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last 20 minutes from john mcfarlane, who is now the chairman. he was the nonexecutive chairman. he has given an interview. he was -- he said that jenkins was asked to lead. barclays is committed to international bank, mcfarlane says. the bank may cut jobs. we do know that jenkins announced 7000 investment banking job cuts. he crossed 19,000 across the entire firm by 2016. mcfarlane says jenkins did play a positive role. it has been a fascinating our. -- fascinating hour. jonathan: keep it right here on bloomberg tv. after the break, we will bring you "the pulse."
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in the meantime, i am on twitter. the best of luck. ♪
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>> european leaders give greece until sunday to accept a rescue or face being booted out of the euro. shock move at barclays. antony jenkins is out. a new set of skills are required. chinese stocks plunge again as state intervention fails to stem the rout. george osborne delivers the first conservative budget in 20 years.

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