tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 9, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
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alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. u.s. stocks rising today after the s&p fell to a four-month low yesterday. global market seems to be letting out a sigh of relief as they see their biggest rebound since 2009. joe: what'd you miss? imf citing a weaker u.s. been a worried about greece and called the china stock slump a sideshow. is that the right call? alix: greece max out there
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credit cards while they still can. brendan: we speak to the ceo of a giant ethanol producer. what has the 50% plummet in oil prices done to his business? an s&pe're looking at that is closed below its 200-day moving average. joe, we had a rally in stocks. we did close off highs of the session and closing below this level is quite significant. a 1% rally in my could not hold onto it. a rally day that faded. joe: it wasn't up day then a down day. at the end of the day you are like, that's really unimpressive. europeans across the indices. france and germany up over 2%. days since our
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last correction? 1374 days since our last correction. i want to deep dive in the bloomberg terminal to see how long that will actually last. take a look at the s&p 500 compared to its 200-day moving average. we are right around the line at 2051.31. we are below the 200-day moving average and why this is so crazy with a down day yesterday, we should be down today and we are not. that freak doubt a lot of traders. example, we are off closer more than two points. this couldthe nasdaq spell a lot of trouble. betting on aple decline are kind of surprised by
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what we saw today. alix: we saw the rollover and we are not waiting for some big he had -- big heavy leading stocks like apple. joe: we are little law for the recent lows -- we are a little off of the recent lows. these are still really low numbers. you should pay attention to this number creeping up. alix: look at this circle. it's really good. the ims lowering its global growth forecast. factor in china it did in. i want to bring in our guest, ed. thanks for joining us. let's talk about that imf call today. i wanted to see how accurate the
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ims actually is in terms of addict thing u.s. growth over the next few years. for the last three years, imf forecasts are coming in below. do you buy this? are we better than we think? ed: the percentage change over gdp since the mid-2010 has been growing 2.5 cent which is a pretty reasonable rate. i like to take out what does not support my story. joe: i do, too. a governmentke spending gdp has been increasing 3 percent. look at that kind of comparison. if not such a bad thing if the private sector is growing around 3%. looking at nonfarm business .utput joe: you pay attention to these
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organizations? they do represent sort of the consensus. putting together consensus estimates. they are kind of telling you what's out there. we've definitely been talking about the effect of chinese stocks here in the u.s.. recently shanghai composite start to pick, the spread rolls over. there seems to be concerns about global growth. do you buy that correlation and thesis? ed: the global economy is really an secular start nation.
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professor laurie summers has been talking about that, however he believes in more government spending to get out of it. i think too much government spending and meddling in central banks is why we are in secular stagnation. excesses overmore the past three years than anyone else in terms of quantitative easing pumping and way too much the quiddity and they have a massive amount of excess capacity, too much property. i have not seen the historical catharsis but it looks like they just created one of the biggest bubbles in all times and one of the shortest times. joe: what you think the government should have done since the financial crisis to get the economy going if not for spending? have, could have. with the benefit of find site, the first round of qe made sense. the easing since then, really, has not been worthwhile
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in the fed should have been raising interest rate a little bit all along here. alix: go raise every meeting now? ed: i've almost got in to the point where they cannot do it. me a shouldsked have, could have question. i try to avoid making policy recommendations. out what there policymakers are doing and where they are going next. central bankers are masters of the universe. they think they can control and fix all of our problems. the big problem we have now is that they are starting to lose confidence is now. china, japan, u.s., eurozone. joe: whether anyone is bearish, bullish, indicators like that. we are actually getting to pretty bearish levels. what do you think that's all
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about? is it just the wins? ed: i think this has been a tough bull market or technicians , dashboards, technical bull indicators. joe: it's just gone up. ed: i hate to use the prettyion, but it's descriptive. these markets have been rigged by the central banks. we can see that clearly with what's going on in china right now. anyone betting against the is bull market is betting a guest -- betty against the central bank. would you say the bond market has been truly a free bond market? not that the bond market is totally free. alix: they are dealing with new regulation. to the question here. they have clearly intervened big time in the bond markets through qe and the near zero interest rate policy. joe: is there ever a time when
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bond markets are not a function of policy? right.hink you are we used to just target the fed funds rate and we did not do quantitative easing. that obviously mattered. we've never had this kind of direct intervention of having the central tanks be this huge in buying securities. we've seen what you are calling this bubble, the rigged game, and attending very badly. do you say that will happen in the u.s.? are we doomed to have a similar collapse? ed: i'm pretty impressed by how well we are doing despite all of the meddling by the federal government with regulation, the fed with all of its various monetary policies. god bless america. it's a great country, very diversified, lots of entrepreneurs and capitalism. we're going down the same road as the chinese, europeans, japanese, but we have a long
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ways to go. alix: what keeps you up at night? ed: i could be wrong about inflation. keeping in just rate near zero, the interest rate has been zero that couldbeen great make the economy very vulnerable to recession. joe: thank you very much. alix: some greeks are choosing to max out their credit cards at the apple store. we will tell you why right after the break. ♪
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alix: i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe rosenthal. alix: turning the page in the confederate flag. his a live shot of governor nikki haley signing a bill that will remove it from statehouse grounds. it will come down tomorrow morning. earlier today the south carolina house joined the senate in agreeing to remove the flag after 13 hours of debate. joe: jeb bush raised more cash than any other contender. they have amassed a war chest million.more than $114 his closest rival, hillary clinton, at 70 million. his team collected $11 million in his first six days of candidacy. onx: they are not jumping the music streaming service bandwagon. earlier report suggested they were doing just that and facebook was ready to take on
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the apple news service and other heavyweights like spotify and pandora. those are your top headlines. --ething you may have missed nickel prices. joe, they are at a level they have not seen since 2008. joe: how could anyone miss nickel prices? alix: it used to make rechargeable battery system, toinless steal, very exposed china. historically high london metal exchange inventory but this is one commodity that could have some upside. 60% of nickel producers are currently underwater. at some point, there must be a supply reaction. china still loves this. they might not be big on iron ore. make power tools, rechargeable battery systems, emergency battery supplies and they predict the chinese market will grow 5.3% this year. not as high as 2014, but they are still buying.
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goldman sees an upside for nickel prices. there is some maintenance for the refineries, but it's a very good bullish china indicator. we keep talking about the bearish. joe: i want to talk about the fact that many more banks have the exit. we think they will get the deal but it's unlikely. now there are seeing the exit of more than 50%. citi, rbs, bmo. this is kind of bad karma because i never like to point out the flip-flopping. they said 90% odds were really strong. as we know, that did not happen. earlier this year, they said it was not going to happen and they felt confident that was -- the
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vote was going to go in favor of yes. once again, they have said it's the base case scenario. exit it could be a quick's or could be one to three years. that's what happened. it's not like tomorrow. if they get a deal this weekend or whatever, the long-term prognosis for greece to be able to stay in the deal, they make a really strong point because it is sort of hard to they can really stick to the program they would need with ongoing credibility issues. favorsly they did know for their credibility. we're seeing a rush of dishwashers,
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televisions. they don't want to put their money in banks but somewhere where they may have value. the new york times did interesting article where someone wanted to buy $1 million worth of jewelry because he would rather keep it in his store than cash. you see these in crises with regularity where they sense the bottom is about to drop out. they saw the collapse and wanted to spend their money on things that will hold value. computers, iphones. spending is limited in greece right now but as long as people can spend, have working credit cars and stores with inventory, they will continue spending. alix: demand from greece customers for sovereign gold coins is doubled. -- has doubled. there is a demand by the great people. joe: there are people talking about bitcoin. alix: that is a whole other story.
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alix: "what'd you miss?" i'm alix steel. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. alix: we are joined now by the president and ceo todd becker. good to see you. what does it mean for you when you see oil prices down 50%. you make ethanol that goes into the gasoline. what does that do for your margins? >> the good thing is that corn is down as well. that makes it competitive. we are competing well. we compete for our share. we see expanded lens.
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we are doing well. although prices have dropped, other factors have driven demand. alix: when it comes to corn, we have seen it rally. we've seen concerns that there's going to be a tightening of supply and prices go higher. what is your perfect oil and corn price? >> when oil prices dropped, corn prices did not. corn realized it had to compete, and it has done that. we have seen a recent rally because of weather, but the black swan event was not the weather, it was to back to back bad crop years. yield is not dropping much. futures have rallied. they are expecting the crop will come in worse than expected. that will help keep ethanol prices low. joe: i'm curious about the politics of ethanol. obviously, ethanol depends on government targets. do you worry about the politics? >> not really. you have to get through iowa.
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joe: i'm curious about the politics of ethanol. obviously, ethanol depends on government targets. do you worry about the politics? >> not really. you have to get through iowa. the mandate is there. economics are driving behavior. we have 10% of the fuel supply because of the mandate. the expanded blends -- joe: the mandate is crucial to your business?
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>> we are not focused on the next 20 years or if the mandate will be there. you have to compete. ethanol has remained a discount gasoline. we are $.45 discount to gasoline. when we had most certainty on epa policy prior to that announcement, we were blending ethanol to the max. the blenders did not know what the rules were, but they did it to the max. alix: we have seen ethanol stocks climb over the past year. they are above the average. yes, you can produce as much as you want. eventually, you are stocks that wind up not being used. >> we are below 20 million barrels, extremely tight. we are tighter than we usually are. we saw ethanol stocks drop down to 16 million barrels, the
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tightest we have seen. under 20 million barrels is tight. that is driven by export demand, great global demand growth. they don't care about u.s. policy or what big oil wants. they want more ethanol, expands our fuel supply. joe: what other countries where you're seeing the fastest growth? alix: do they also need a renewable fuel standard and order for them to want to import the ethanol. >> they want our product because it is cheap. while the united states is uncertain about their policy, 30 mandates popped up around the world. even in the philippines, we are seeing retailers tell us to bring 20%.
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they say they don't care about the oil guys. they want cheap product, cheap octane, extend our fuel supply. it has changed the dynamic of the world today so that when there is an excess of ethanol, the world steps in and takes it, which wasn't the case 3-4 years ago. that is driving the behavior of the consumer. alix: thanks. i really appreciate it. joe: we will be right back. ♪
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alix: "what'd you miss?" i am alix steel. china is selling off their cotton reserves. they said the government will sell tomorrow, one million tons over time cotton was down again today. the government is charging more. -- one million tons over time. cotton was down again today. the government is charging more. the government is struggling. india might not plant as much
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cotton because of china. joe: is this like our strategic oil reserves? alix: i don't know. joe: that would be cool. janet yellen is speaking tomorrow about the economy, china, greece, when the fed will high grace. everybody will be watching the janet yellen speech tomorrow. a great economist had a line, the u.s. economy is an island of mediocre tranquility. that is so beautiful. we will see if that is how janet yellen sees it too. alix: a bloomberg reporter saw a transaction on his these a card carried out in greek currency. biggest slip.
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>> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: he's been the artistic and musical conduct your and he became the musical director. he conducted the london symphony orchestra. in 2000, he had a vision for a new opera house which, after several technical set backs, finally opened on his 60th earth day in 2013
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