move to critical sunday meetings. the chinese government deploys the heavy end of government succeeds in stabilizing their stock markets. there is green on the screen for two days. coming to america, a very, very different housing economy. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york this friday, july 10. i'm tom keene. brendan greeley joins me. vonnie quinn is off today. the framework on this friday is a mess of cyan relief in europe. brendan: we had a june 26 agreement from the creditors to greece. greece says no, holds a referendum returns, gets rid of yanez verify gets -- of yanez verify gets -- the she was waiting to drop as to whether or not there is any debt relief for

greece. they did not explicitly ask for it. that is a real change from before, but there is no movement from the imf, from jack lew, and from donald tusk at the eu at the commission asking for a change of actual right now. tom: we will have a special focus in the 7:00 hour with alan ruskin of deutsche bank. let's get you to top headlines. he is unpracticed on this. and in greeley. brendan: it appears greece blinked. alexis tsipras has proposed a bunch of spending cuts, tax hikes. in return he wants a $59 billion bailout, wants long-term debt to be made more manageable. francois hollande calls the new plan credible and serious. that is the most important word there -- serious. voters rejected a similar proposal in the referendum on sunday. a few hours from now, the

confederate flag will no longer fly on the grounds of the state capital in south carolina. the legislature voted to take it down in the wake of the murder of nine black church members in charleston. nikki haley, the governor signed it yesterday afternoon. >> i saw passions get high, i saw passions get low, but i saw commitment never-ending. what we saw was another action, and that action is that the confederate flag is coming off the grounds of the south carolina state house. brendan: the flag will be taken down in a ceremony at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and will be housed in a multimillion dollar shrine. in china stocks bounced back from a multi-trillion dollar selloff. the index, the shanghai comp, head hit a low this week.

state-run companies were ordered to buy stocks. the new report says oil prices may fall further before markets tighten next year. the international energy agency says the world remains massively oversupplied with oil. it is predicted next year production outside opec will grind to a halt. tom: let's go over to tennis right now and the drama we are seeing in the united kingdom. serena williams is one win away from her 21st grand slam title. she reached tomorrow's final by beating share up over -- by beating sharapova. tomorrow she will face a player from spain. let's move to something pronounceable like murray and

federer. brendan: should we just have me read all the headlines? tom: seriously, murray beating federer in the semifinals is a huge deal in the united kingdom. brendan: williams federer? all of a sudden it is 2005. i am 30 again. tom: equities, bonds, currencies commodities, flat out risk on across all sectors, probably even the housing sector. futures at 23. the euro goes one point 1164. -- goes one1.1164. rick barnes are now 34% in the

two-year space. right over to the bloomberg professional service. here is that disinflation -deflation migration, down near 0% on the 10 year yield. this is where bill gross -- let's call it the gross rally. price lower, yields higher coming year is 1% area. brendan: i think we will learn some things on monday about what german debt will look like in the future. we have not been able to back out of the grease prices. once we do, we can assess what is happening in europe. tom: the parliament votes today in athens. other parliaments have to vote at some point. brendan: here is the problem. for the last two weeks this has been a new agreement. the old bailout that was five years old, then three years old ran out. now they have to go back to every parliament in the eurozone. the most important parliament is

the bundestag. they have to reconvene in order to sign this agreement. tom: the only thing we will see on this is the possibility that hans nichols will remain employed another month. hans nichols is pumped for an aggressive friday and into the weekend as well. with all of your abilities, can you envision that all of the parliaments will pass whatever they are supposed to pass? hans: no, but they do not have to. only six of them have to. i hate to correct brennan on this. only six of the parliaments have to pass it appeared what we will get from athens today is a green light to mr. tsipras to continue negotiating. specifics still need to be passed by athens and of course the bundestag. tom: is the market in front of the jubilation? you are sitting there with a backdrop of berlin behind you. is the market out front of the debate?

hans: no the market is right, and i will tell you why. what you see on the front page of build, the british royals. that means build is not building up popular sentiment. here is the case for why the market is out front. sure blooshauble has to read the document. this little fraud, that is greece. 12.5%. i did not get much sleep last night. the frogs are pots in boiling water. if you believe build, we are closer to a deal. i will not go inside build as always, because when you do there is a danger of showing the city, and we do not want to do that. tom: this is what happens when you go to the london school of economics. you take courses on how to in frogs legs.

that is how we got to this point. brendan: i have a question for you, serious as a heart attack. debt relief. there has been some momentum toward it. you have jack lew of the imf saying this will have to happen as part of this deal. is there a sense it might happen or is this just people talking from the outside? hans: shauble left the door open to some kind of debt restructuring. we are talking about the extending of the maturity of the bonds. every german speaker says that is not allowed by eu rules. a traditional haircut cannot happen. is it a haircut if you tease bonds out for 200 years? technically no, practically yes. one thing on this we have heard from a number of members of parliament. right now they are saying there is no trust in greece. let me read one quote to you.

this is from a eu parliament member. "the government is either cheating their own people or us again herein." it gets to the core of what german carla terrien's mean -- what german parliamentarians mean. tom: greece and china have been your headlines this week, but the 2015 message is simple. these are good if not great economies. simon kennedy has a terrific article on bloomberg today with the word "accelerating" in it. michelle meyer is with bank of america merrill lynch. they have seen accelerating growth in the united states and we are trying to drag ourselves away from greece for a bit at this point. michelle co understand -- michelle: understandably, that

is where a lot of the risk is. tom: it is pretty darn good out there, according to simon kennedy. what is the update on how janet yellen will adapt to "it is pretty darned good out there"? michelle: we think we are at a point in the economy where we can very slowly adjust interest rates. i think we have to focus on what is the progress of the labor market? we are at a 5.3% unemployment rate, adding 220,000 jobs. even if you are in the camp that it is lower, that is the thing. it is kind of an abstract concept. but even if it is lower, you are making such significant progress that there is not that much more you can fall. tom: 4.9% is dramatically different for 1600 pennsylvania

avenue than 5.0%. brendan: we are waiting on wages and we have started to see some movement. major employers are making changes in their wage policy. michelle: what janet yellen and the fed have said is that wages are not a precondition for rate hikes, but they are an important symptom of inflation. that is important as well. we are starting to see some evidence of it. brendan: when we moved september, december, is that going to be a bump of adjustment? who does not know this is going to happen? who will be surprised and unprepared for this? michelle: market participants are still pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year. there could be some surprise. there is only a one in 20% chance or so that it will be september. if janet yellen and the flc are gearing up for a september lift

off, they will make it quite clear and transparent in communication that when it comes to implementing it, it should not be a surprise. tom: we have a special guest for you in our next section. jonathan fendi is worth staying around for. with fabulous original synthesis over what is going on in china. jonathan fenby on a wild week for china. also, our twitter question of the day. will we have a great deal come monday? that was my jimmy buffett moment. ♪ come monday it will be all right come monday we will be up all night ♪ ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. futures up 23, dow futures up 1.68. risk on across the screen. with headlines, here is brendan greeley. brendan: the hack attack targeting federal employees as much anger than originally thought -- is much bigger than originally thought. cyber thieves broke into the office of the personnel management cost network. u.s. blames the chinese government. tesla -- will help tesla turn its brand into a premium lifestyle experience. record labels are harmonizing to fight piracy. it is a change for music fans who are accustomed to browsing for new titles on tuesday.

record companies will slow illegal downloading. those are top headlines. tom: it has some interest to me. it is away from greece and china and all that the analysis of apple music over the week. my amateur take is that they will kill radio. they will kill music radio. i am loving it. it is phenomenal. brendan: tom's market research. the demise of radio has long been forecast. we have been talking about how it is going to die any year now for about 30 years i have a hard time buying that. we will move to china now. fidelity says the index is a buy. jonathan fenby joins us on the phone from london. jonathan, problem solved? are we find out? jonathan: i don't think problem solved. the problem is contained. the authorities have thrown the kitchen sink at the problem and

have achieved a stabilization but there is still nervousness around the market. brendan: we have been reading about a lot of back-and-forth among banks on whether or not what we have learned about the chinese government and its attitude toward equities leads us to believe that china will be included in the msci next year. is it a modern, and lightened equities market? jonathan: know what you have is a government, a communist party in china that wants to use the markets more. it wants corporate's to raise money more among bank loans. it wants to make it stronger, wants to make it long -- more transparent, but it also wants to keep control over that process. we have seen in the last couple of weeks what happens when you do that, and that is not something that the chinese authorities like. we have a growing market, but

within a framework, within parameters set by officials. that will distort the market. tom: jon, you have written very much about china in the 21st century. the china that jonathan spence wrote about is a china of beijing and everybody else. what is the linkage right now of beijing as a federal system to those regional big city governments? has he changed over the last week and over the last few years? jonathan: it is changing at the moment. xi jinping the chinese president, but more importantly, head of the chinese communist party, is trying to set authority on beijing. he is trying to get things done as he wants them done, and he is centralizing, using the anticorruption campaign to exercise more authority sectors of state owned industries and

the provincial government. it is like some of the powerful emperors. tom: is it all clear for the equity markets, or do we still have our radar up? jonathan: i would still watch this carefully because, as you said in the beginning, there are an awful lot of companies which have suspended their shares. so you are looking at an index that is not completely reflecting. there are distortions. tom: jonathan fenby, thank you so much. his book, "will china dominate the 21st century?" is a beautiful short must-read on the politics of the nation. allen west and will join us for the entire 7:00 hour. the good news that -- alan ruskin will join us for the

entire 7:00 hour. stay with us. brendan greeley and tom keene on a friday. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." good friday morning to you. now we go to the gentleman -- well, his hair is better than donald trump's. wait, anybody's here. brendan: marginally. jeremy shapiro up bookings -- of brookings -- recent polls have generated --

tom: i was speaking to l mayors come and he noted that brett there will be doing that. can you envision donald trump up there with jeb bush and the others yet i cannot get there. brendan: he is going to turn jeb bush into an equivocating, quibbling -- i think it is fascinating. i like this read. what people want more than anything is some display of strength. we can look at these plans and we can say i think objectively that many of them are absurd. the solution for iraq is to encircle it and take the oil. it does not sound plausible. that does not matter. plausibility is irrelevant. he wants strength.

tom: let's go to michelle meyer. i understand that your leadership will fire you directly on this so we are being careful up here. within the research of does politics matter to the markets i have gone back and forth for decades on this. where is michelle meyer? michelle: when it comes down to the substance, he he is talking about trade agreements, for example. tom: you think that does affect the market? michelle: i think it does. if you are in and out of trades you probably will not be trading off of policy. but if you're talking you love something that can fundamentally influence trade flows, it will impact maybe a five-year call around it. tom: that is part of the improved optimism.

expert business does better. michelle: i think so. what we have seen in politics over the past few years is very little shock around washington. tom: with a government shutdown this fall that the gop made -- is there talk about it? brendan: listen, we talked about trump and we all emerged without dignity intact. coming up we will talk about the housing market with michelle meyer. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

tom: good friday morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome you. within the tumult of much better markets, here is rented really with top headlines.

brendan: greece's prime minister with a proposal that is much closer to demands now. because the tax hikes -- for tax hikes and spending cuts. in return, he wants a $59 billion bailout. french president francois hollande calls the proposal serious and credible. the plan gets its first test in greek parliament today. last sunday, voters rejected austerity measures that were similar. negotiators are trying to reach a deal on iran nuclear program but will miss another deadline. an agreement after today would be subject to two months of scrutiny. secretary of state john kerry warns that the talks cannot be open-ended. secretary kerry: we are here because we believe we are making real progress toward a comprehensive deal. but as i have said many times

and as i discussed with president obama last night, we are not going to sit at the negotiating table forever. brendan: the latest disagreement is over the u.n. arms embargo on iran. russia wants it removed. george bush and bill clinton get together for a good cause and a chat and only one subject was off-limits -- bush and clinton. the former presidents spoke yesterday in dallas. there was no talk of bush's brother running for president against clinton's wife. both said it is a drag to get old. >> find people, who inspire hope. clinton and i are getting a little long in the tooth these days. [laughter]

>> there is one month of the year when he is older than me. brendan: the leadership scholars program is sponsored by the centers of bush, clinton, and lyndon johnson. "the wall street journal" says the sports media giant is tightening its belt. more than 3 million people dropped espn in the last year. yesterday it was announced they would be parting ways with anchor keith olbermann. espn has been forced to pay more to win rights to broadcast sports. tom: and lebron james did not stay a free agent for too long. he will be returning to cleveland. they signed a two-year deal for $47 million. next summer he is expected to opt out of the second year. he could negotiate when the new

tv contract kicks in and salary caps could rise. that is when they will speak with sharapova. brendan: i am going to let you dangle in the wind. tom: i got a memo from our executive -- "dear tom, friday afternoon you will be attempting the mark crumpton pronunciation cap." mark runs a camp for announcers. because he is so good at it. he is the best in the business at it. we will be attending that. looking forward to seeing mark crumpton this afternoon. brendan: please return, vonnie and read headlines for us. tom: i can pronounce this. donald's is struggling. the rules are changing on how

the under generation needs. looking deeper into this generally general -- on this generational change in housing. for those of you worldwide queens is to the east of manhattan about 4000 miles. the real estate there is up 10%. a starter condo is 700,000. are we all going to rent? michelle: not indefinitely, but we have certainly seen a big shift in terms of how we are living. the homeownership rate is down to back -- is down back to where we were in the late 1980's, early 1990's. it is particularly acute for the younger generation. that could be partly cyclical. i think it is more than that. i think it is also a secular shift, where people are getting married later, having children later, and there is a greater tendency to live closer to urban

centers. tom: within the urban centers the idea that everyone wants to live on the same corner of brookline and artisan all this and that. how can they come up with the cash flow required as an owner or a renter? michelle: given home price appreciation relative to fair valuation, i would argue the market looks a bit tight. i think it is an opportunity for more building, targeted building in certain urban centers, and even within the surrounding neighborhoods. brendan: given the secular changes we are talking about are we burdened with the wrong kind of housing stock? michelle: we have been, and that is what the crisis has been about. it is about adjusting the housing stocks. a lot of it was in areas that

were really speculative neighborhoods. brendan: you are talking about the end of cul-de-sacs. michelle: and that has adjusted significantly. they are now in the hands of someone else. tom: we were calling them mc mansions because the front foyer's were bigger than -- brendan: there is always something wrong with that. have changed. michelle: if you look at surveys, it still says that people want to buy, but it happens later in life. tom:, on. $700,000 in queens? it could be san francisco houston. $700,000, i need 140 grand minimum to get into it. i need $4000, $5,000 every month, plus the fees on top of that. the percentage of america that

can do that is next to nothing. michelle: we have seen constraints on budget with the high price of shelter. look at cpi. what is the component in cpi that is driving up the headline? brendan: we were looking at the trend toward smaller houses. full of anecdotal evidence about what people want. housing and urban development has some data that shows consistently over the last 50 years houses are getting bigger. that did not stop during the downturn in michelle: we actually reached a new record high for single families in terms of square footage after the crisis. if you think about where -- who builders were building four, they were building for those who could access housing, which were higher income, higher credit individuals. brendan: when that works itself out, will houses get smaller? michelle: i think they should. tom: the minimum unit is $4

million. that has to be the upper 10th of 1% of the american public. is the 80 c of new york -- is the idiocy of new york trickling out into america? michelle: in pockets. to your point there is a limited number of people who can actually afford that and buy that. so i think overall, when you think of it from a longer-term perspective for home prices given how fast the recovery has been in terms of home price appreciation -- not building but home price appreciation -- when you take a five or tenure perspective -- tom: why is the number for new york so single digity when we are talking about double digits for queens? michelle: the new york number is the msa.

brendan: i am certain that the case schiller is in triple digits. what we're looking at. one of the things that you read is that houses that house prices -- that house prices are being driven up by foreign buyers. michelle: if you look at the national association of realtors, in parts of the country it is huge. in certain regions within san francisco, regions within new york city, it is a big part. parts of arizona, florida, and texas, there is a big market for foreign buyers. but overall in the u.s., it is a small fraction. tom: michelle meyer with us from bank of america. brendan: coming up, talked iran's nuclear program are deadlocked. are we going to get a deal? we are also going to get a look

at iran's gdp. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." michelle meyer is with us from bank of america/merrill lynch.

the single best chart -- i did not know this until in gear a lakshmana -- be it into my head. this side tends to disagree with the other side and all that. the backdrop is different. in the middle east, iran and persia -- they are a complete society. they are the 18th in purchasing power parity in the world. they have a fully developed middle class. bring out the single best chart. this is nothing more than per capita gdp. up they go. slope matters. you get up to the big p in the 80's, down they go, and then the recovery with oil and gas has been suspended this -- has been stupendous until now. this is the hardship that terror hran has as they go into these talks. brendan: one of the things that we hear from people reporting

from the street in terrorhran they really like americans. tom: chris davidson at durham, is adamant at the development for rent and it is separate and distinct from everything else to the west. brendan: the single biggest factor in iran's develop and now is whether they will it be able to shut off those sanctions. indira, is it just dotting i's and crossing tees, or is it in the way of the agreement right now? indira: we have heard from single -- from iranian officials last night. their claim was that yesterday united states had rolled back the term, heart and wanted more

and the iranian said perhaps there was some conversation in the conference call between president obama and john kerry and perhaps president obama said they need to go harder line. the united states denied that and said there had never been a deal. we are deadlocked here. they missed the deadline this morning for getting the deal to congress, which would have given them a fast-track review. at this point we are looking at a day by day situation, but we are automatically looking at doubling the time iran will have to make -- to wait for sanctions . right now it is not looking great. in terms of how talks are going. brendan: having missed the deadline for congressional review, what will be the consequences? how aware are of it are they in vienna, where you are? indira: they are very aware of it.

ultimately, the president can of course the toe the rejection and it is not clear if there would be enough votes in congress to override a presidential veto. but the larger point is that polling shows the american people want a deal with iran. they want to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and they think negotiations are the best way to do it. the sentiment on capitol hill is different, where there is a real attachment to sanctions and using that as a tool of provision. that is something that the iranians complained about last night. they want the deal done. tom: the discussion is technocratic and political. how long -- how large of a backdrop is the religion of the iranian society? indira: i do not think it is that large at all. they want a deal. they want conventional weapons.

they say they need them to fight isis. i think it is really for iran a very technocratic practical decision about getting the best deal. tom: thank you so much. in gear a -- in gear a lot man brendan: it is friday, and we have a pope photo. pope francis got changed in a burger king. then the president of bolivia gave the pope a large sombrero before the mass. tom: you cannot dream of marketing like that. brendan: we are such suckers on this show. it is only a matter of time before burger king's clever marketing team figures out how to make hay off of this. massive images of pluto and its

moon. it is the solar system's largest moon relative to its planet. think back nine years. the satellite was launched back in 2006. tom: there is real estate development there, right? michelle: it has got to be big. brendan: is tom turned to michelle -- as tom terms to michelle, her eyes went "compliant." welcome to my every morning. photo, washington, d.c., an exhibit called the beach, featuring one million plastic balls. yes, it is an adult ball pit. and the name of the brooklyn architecture firm that designed it snarkitecture.

tom: i don't get it. michelle meyer, thank you. michelle meyer with bank of america, merrill lynch as well. good news coming out of brussels. we will see what the athens parliament says later today. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance" worldwide. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. a risk and it gets riskier. futures up 23, now up almost 25 points. let's get to top headlines. here is brendan greeley. brendan: the fbi says it disrupted a number of terrorist lots tied to the fourth. fbi agents arrested at least 10 people suspected of having ties to islamic state this year. sales of personal computers keep falling. worldwide pc shipments fell 9.5% the second quarter, the biggest job since the third quarter of 2014. corporate spending on pc's has

slowed down, and a stronger u.s. dollar has hurt sales. the man who led the oakland raiders in the 70's is dead. ken stabler is dead. he died of: cancer at the age of 69. tom: a total class act. brendan: returning to europe thomas said that germany received debt relief in 1953 after the war. the idea of greek debt relief is gaining steam after this week. jack lew mentioned it. wolfgang schauble says, no, that is not even on the table. a professor at the london school of economics joins us from berlin. this is something you have written about, particularly in the last five years. where is germany right now in

terms of understanding its own history of debt relief? >> not very far, i am afraid to say. it is still news to most people in germany although i have been talking and writing about these things for a number of years now. i am not the first one. it is a known thing through this is not the only debt relief. germany already benefited from debt relief in the great depression in 1932. it was the cause it german economic recovery in the 1930's. brendan: germany is justifiably proud of what it calls its economic miracle over the last half-century. can we tie the debt relief it receives in 1953 from its creditors to the economic miracle? >> absolutely. certainly as a necessary condition. there were other things that were important, but it is

important to mention how germany could have dealt with this side of the debt burden -- and it was very sizable -- the foreign exchange paying its debt without it is simply hard to imagine. tom: professor there is a change in attitude. do you sense a german generational change in attitude and culture, and in society that will get us to some debt accommodation? professor ritschl: he is a colleague of mine. or is some generational change because the younger generation is more pro-european. everybody is traveling around. it has to become commonplace to extend the gap here on all these things. yes, these things are probably a

little bit going by generations and i notice it very strongly when i talked to older folks very strongly in terms of the nation cost take. it is a very drastic change of mentality. brendan: we have a little bit of time left. when you look at the language coming from berlin right now referred to as a classical haircut. how do you interpret that? would they extend the terms? professor ritschl: i would say they have extended the haircut. there is always -- there has already been a 50% reduction. really what it is all about, is explaining to their own public walking out and explaining that to the germans.

tom: thank you so much. forex clearly shows the euro leading the way this morning. 1.1189. in the next hour, we focus on greece with alan ruskin. ♪

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: tsipras blinks.

will his parliament agreed to the demands of germany and creditors? markets improved sharply this morning as eu leaders moved to critical sunday meetings. the chinese government deployed their heavy hand. they succeed in stabilizing the stock market. green on the screen for two days. michael mckee speaks with -- speaks on the new germany. -- speaks with axel weber on the new germany. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." brendan: we do not know whether the greek parliament will extend the deal. we are waiting on several parliaments in europe to sign off on the deal. tom: we are sequential as we go to sunday. this, then that.

brendan: if it looks good, we may be able to sleep in on sunday at not look at the news at all. tom: i have to look on sunday night. let's go to top headlines right now with brendan. brendan: less than one hour from now, the greek parliament will start the debate on the next bailout plan. european institutions they could control the fate of greece -- they want to start economic reforms before they said -- before they send bailout money. alexis tsipras once a $59 billion bailout. the plan is very similar to the one that greek voters rejected last sunday. greek banks will not reopen until monday at the earliest. less than three hours from now the confederate flag will be taken down on the grounds of the south carolina capital. it has been there for more than a half-century. it was diverted to be removed

after the murders at a black church in charleston. governor haley: i saw passions get high, i saw passions get low, but i saw commitment never-ending. when we saw was another action and that action is that the confederate flag is coming off the grounds of the south carolina statehouse. brendan: the flag will be housed in a multimillion dollar shrine. in china, stocks have bounced back from a multi-trillion dollar selloff by facing the biggest two-day rally since 2008. the shanghai composite hit a high this week after a three-month low earlier this week. the government's public security bureau is investigating shortselling. a new report says oil prices may fall further before tightening next year. the world remains massively oversupplied with oil.

the agency predicts outside growth outside opec may grind to a halt. tom: on to tennis. serena williams is just one win away from her 21st and slam tour. she reached tomorrow's wimbledon finals. she beat maria sharapova in straight sets. tomorrow she faces -- and drama as well, andy murray taking on roger federer of switzerland. that will be the men's semi final. a data check -- it is a massive risk-on data check. there is the 1.12 on euro indicating the reversal we have seen in the last 18 hours. let's leave it at that for the data check this morning. all that we need to know is it is green across the screen. the greek government is simply

blank, there is no other way to describe it, with the obama administration helping out. hans nichols is in berlin. what is the gaming in brussels of what the greek parliament will do? hans: the gaming in brussels is they think that parliament will vote for this package give tsipras the authority to go ahead and continue negotiations over the weekend and have another round of votes in athens on monday and tuesday on the specifics. the vote in parliament is a green light vote. think of it as fast-track authority. they still need to do the details. tom: help me with what country i should watch the sites germany. hans: maybe estonia and maybe finland. you could forgive some of the mp's from germany, estonia, finland from being confused because mr. tsipras has agreed to the proposal that he's been a

week railing against, that his former finance minister called terrorism. there is confusion in germany. which tsipras do they believe? it is a total about-face? can you trust an about-face? brendan: we are also hearing news from the finance ministry on the possibility of debt relief. is there any kind of debt relief possible? extensions, anything? hans: a very small one night -- a very small runway. in terms of traditional had cut -- intradermal -- in the terms of visual haircuts, that is out. are they talking about projections two weeks ago, or taking into account that the economy is in utter collapse for two weeks? those are entirely made up numbers and are no longer relevant. if you want to have new and accurate numbers, you need to

take in account of what is happening to the economy. the question is, are parliaments in berlin and in finland going to accept the big numbers? are they going to want real numbers? we still do not have an answer to that question. brendan: let's say there is an amazing deal and everything is fine on monday. does everybody forget about europe, or do the people in brussels where you spent so much time recognizing that the structures of the union need to be fixed? hans: you will have a little bit of -- after the august holiday right? look, matteo renzi was really prescient and smart on this two weeks ago -- and i could mean a couple of days ago, it is all blurring together -- the prime minister of italy is saying we spent five months talking about greece, not figuring out how we are going to grow europe, and how we are going to do with structural unemployment, which exists outside of greece. we lost five months because of the greece situation.

will we returned that? likely. tom: hans nichols, thank you. he said that greece may reflect upon europe and global markets. alan ruskin knows that even if compromised, even if agreement is found, there will be further work to stabilize the european experiment. i just got a lovely e-mail from barcelona and one of our viewers over there, about the idea of what spain does or what estonia does or what these other nations do. are they adapting to germany or will they ultimately adapt to what happens in greece? alan: all of them have gone through varieties of adjustments. they do not particularly like the idea that -- tom: greece get special treatment. alan: there is the sense that adjustment has worked to some

degree. the biggest story is that it is only in crisis. you get the real changes to monetary union that will make this a firm and low -- and more coherent -- tom: will we have a more coherent system two years from now? you have been suspect of that. alan: i have my doubts. it is only in crisis that anything really changes. brendan: the newer countries in the european union have found their voices. the slovakian's have been looking at pensions in greece and saying we do not have that luxury. why are we voting to help you out? alan: obviously from the outside that makes an awful lot of sense. on the inside, if you are a greek pensioner and you are seeing large changes, and you have to establish that, and the promises that were made to you are broken, then the dynamic is very different. tom: the markets this morning are celebrating. we see greece, german spreads

coming in. are the markets out front of the political debate? alan: i think they are reading it about right. the probability of a deal has risen extraordinarily over the past 24 hours. when we need to see off the referendum is a genuine willingness on the parts of tsipras and syriza to put forward a plan that is acceptable. there are genuine questions about longer-term credibility. in the medium-term, we are going to see an agreement. tom: what happens after that? do we assume that they stay in the euro? hard to believe. alan: i think we could easily have a rerun of this. tom: what do you mean by that? alan: we are likely to see various fiscal targets, maybe not hits, and i think the implementation of this is not

going to go quite -- it is not going to go quite as smoothly as hoped. tom: alan ruskin is with us for the entire hour, from deutsche bank. allen west in with a major debate -- alan ruskin with a major debate this week. brendan: we have been watching oil prices drop for six months and they may keep doing that. they have not found a bottom and will continue looking for one. the international energy agency warns that the world is massively oversupplied. our twitter question of the day -- will we have a great deal by monday? what will sunday look like? between us @bsurveillance. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." what we like best about "bloomberg surveillance" is different opinions. we had three oil opinions. all of this dovetails and gets out front of the shocking iea report today which showed that we are up to our eyeballs in oil. mr. gates joins us again this morning. the iea agreeing with you that

there is a lot of oil out there. when we look for oil to drive lower, what will be the actual catalysts? fadel: oil production is at a three-year high. despite the spending, and the collapse in oil prices, the decline rate is much slower than previously expected. global oil is at an all-time high. finally, lifting the oil export ban lifting the economic sanctions on the plan will add additional volume into the supply situation, which would exacerbate the situation. tom: what is the impact of the iea report on oil producers and oil strategist? does the forwards market adjust to a report showed devastating? fadel: actually, the iea has

always been optimistic and always revised their demand growth. usually the error on the high side come on the demand side. now they are saying supply is very high. tom: this is a huge deal to see them shift from demand analysis over to supply analysis. brendan: i am trying to understand, does this mean that the opec strategy has worked, priced down into oblivion? facdel: share production is here to stay. opec has underestimated the impact of share production for the past five years. the reality is that the baby has grown up. you cannot get rid of it. the question is how much longer

will oil prices have to be lowered to curb production growth in shale? tom: fadel gheit twice with us this week. coming up, we will speak with alan ruskin on oil and its impact with the u.s. dollar. thank you for the great responses this week. will we have a great deal by monday? do that @bsurveillance good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. risk on this morning. we see a euro at 1.12 as well. brendan: the hack attack targeting federal workers was bigger than first reported. the obama administration says personal information of 22 million people was stolen. cyber thieves broke into computers at the office of personnel management.

the u.s. has blamed china's government. record labels are harmonizing trying to excite fans and fight piracy. release states that release dates -- release dates are being coordinated. later this morning, the u.s. women's soccer team will be honored in the canyon of heroes. new york city is throwing a hit tape -- during a tickertape parade for the world cup champions. carli lloyd, if you're listening on radio, another replay of her 50 yard goal. tom: it will be a big deal. brendan: i am really excited. all right, michael of hightower advisors has clients and investments. he joins us now on the set. in this hour, the greek parliament is debating a bailout package that the greek people decisively rejected a week ago. what are you hearing from your

clients right now about the real economy in greece? michael: i am hearing a lot, but it is changing minute i minute. what is going on inside parliament, they have suffered enough. the last week and have, they closed the banks, they said we have to do something to change this. brendan: there was a great article this morning about how in the north of greece hotels -- when you are talking minute to minute, we are not looking at a static environment. what we negotiate today may not be the same as what is going on on the ground monday or how quickly are things changing? michael: very rapidly. people in the north of greece are saying i have to get any money i can. it is a cash economy. people will take whatever cash comes their way. tom: i go back to a conversation with pop address -- the finance

minister from years ago. the people of greece outside greece will bring millions if not billions back into greece. what is the emotion -- you are in the management business -- what is the emotion of greek americans about supporting greece? michael: we have strong emotions about supporting greece. there is a huge contingent. there are many organizations. they did a conference last week profound prominent greek americans went to greece, had a conference, said let's together -- let's get together and figure this out. there is a very strong -- tom: what tangible action will we see? michael: you have already seen it. there is support their banker there are conferences that are being held there. there is a lot of support. cash and figuring it out. tom: alan ruskin this goes back

to the greek politics we have seen for ages, which is the idea of a hellenic republic that is staggered from crisis, from left to right. does deutsche bank have a sense of where the new greece will be? after all this? no one has a clue, right? alan: i think we are certainly going to places that no one anticipated. one would hope that a successful package would stabilize and bring politics much back to the center. brendan: michael bapis none of us has skin in the game but you do. what is worth holding onto right now as an investment in greece? michael: you will see greek real estate at some point soon be of value. if you have a high risk appetite for greek bonds, we have seen the spreads come in in 30 minutes, 40 minutes. at some point the greek people are very resilient, and things will rally around the younger

government. maybe it is the change in policy that is happening. maybe it is realizing we need to change and start paying taxes. we need to come to an economy that is not -- tom: we have to ask the front end question. you have a daughter or son going off to some dumb greek island that i was unable to that that i was not able to go to. they have to go "through athens." is there enough stability for them to go through athens this morning at go michael: yes. the greeks are a peaceful people. you may see them in the streets rallying for a i spoke to one of my clients this morning and he said it is business as usual, especially for tourists per you can still get money at citibank, at hsbc, the american banks. tom: say deutsche bank, please. brendan: this idea of the diaspora getting together and

sending money back -- this is something that ireland has been doing an amazing job with aggressively looking for irish-americans and bringing them home. this model that ireland has focused on -- is that something that the greek americans are looking at? michael: absolutely. ireland has a very strong people supporting the island. while the greek islands are a much smaller country, there are ties to the home country. tom: thanks for coming in. michael: my pleasure. thanks for having me. i appreciate it. tom: do we have to do a data check in the middle? i am so used to do in england and we are all going to die. brendan: i am amazed watching the headlines from europe that this may all end with not a bank but a whimper. -- with not a bang but a whimper. alan: up 10 to 15 point is not

a whimper. tom: real simple, will we have a great deal come monday? stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance" worldwide. ♪

tom: risk on this morning. futures are up to 26. let's get to our top headlines. brendan: greek lawmakers are facing a dilemma whether to sign off on a bailout deal that the voters rejected.

there is a plan to get a $59 billion bailout. they are proposing tack hikes and pension rollbacks. the cash crunch is hitting greeks hard. they are lining up at atms for money to get by. banks will reopen on monday. negotiators in vienna are working on a nuclear deal with iran. they will not get up -- an agreement by this morning. john kerry warns that the talks cannot be open-ended. it >> we believe we are making real progress toward a competence of deal. as i have said many times, as i have discussed with the president last night we are not going to sit at the negotiating table forever. brendan: the arms embargo of a

red is a sticking point. the u.s. does not want to end it all together. george bush and bill clinton got together for a good cause yesterday. the only subject off-limits was a bush and clinton. they spoke to graduates from a special leadership program. they both say the country needs young leaders. >> there are some really fine people. clinton and i are getting a little long in the tooth these days. >> speak for yourself. brendan: always fascinated, ex

presidents always become friends. the one else knows what it's like to sit in that chair. espn is losing subscribers and some of its anchors are paying the price. the network is tighten its belt after 3 million people drop in the last year. they parted ways with keep olbermann and dropped will simmons two months ago. they are facing higher fees. tom: mr. james was not a free-agent long. he will stay with the cavaliers. he signed a two-year deal worth $47 million. that is a little bit higher than what olbermann got. those are our top headlines. let's go to the professional service with alan of deutsche bank.

let's go down to 0%. it's a buy of a lifetime. the yield is higher, the prices lower. do we get an acclamation of the greek distortion in europe? could negative rates continue? alan: in germany in terms of the 10 year, it's hard to tell. it's higher than seven basis points. is it above 1% that is key. tom: simon kennedy is writing about a better than good economy. we will talk about this in a bit. we will say the same thing about the international ai monetary fund. are they were fit -- recession free? alan: we have underlying growth.

that is achievable. tom: given all the drama in greece? alan the good news from the u.s. dollar side is europe is going reasonably well in china was hanging in there. the u.s. can grow reasonably well as well. fatah policy with the ecb over a two or three year time, -- i think eventually it will cycle. it's going to take some time. it will be slow going. tom: it gets there. .9? .8? alan: i think the official forecast is .85. that's aggressive at this point. if interest rates would move as we anticipate over a two or three year time, if it moves another 200 asus points, that's what we're looking for. tom: that is able call from alan

ruskin. let's go to the data check. that is a distance the euro would have to travel. futures are near highs of the day, up 26 points. brendan: we have tom keene. tom: tom, greece is front and center. yesterday, we spoke with olivia at the international monetary fund. the surprise was china doing ok. i was taken aback by their imf forecast of 6.8%. on china and on the u.s. dollar 6.8% is not distant from seven is it? it's not even close to a hard landing. alan: we have been seeing for a

while, i think there is a strong sense that you will see growth moving down in china. 6.8% would be a very good result. tom: help me with the future of agent as a sphere. there are all of these compensating currency fares. does the taiwan dollar say strong -- stay strong against china? alan: i think what chinese growth does is important for the region. what we are seeing is emerging-market countries are losing some of their growth. they have to ease policy. that easing chafes at what is going to happen in the u.s.. one of you learned about china? -- what have you learned about china?

alan: i would like to see this activity, that the markets find the right price as it were. there is still work to be done on that score. we haven't seen a lot of equities open it. we don't know what the fair prices. i still think there is a lot of value there. we need to see the underlying prices. let's bring back to dollar dynamics. tom: this is a collegial group of people. i spoke with jeff dennis at ubs. what is the divide on the dollar. why are people debating so much if it will be a stronger dollar or a much stronger dollar? alan: i think the recent price dynamic has shifted the debate. we have been freefalling with the euro-dollar for a while. there is lot of easing. you have the dynamic of both sides, the european and the u.s.

side. we are reliant on the u.s. and the fed driving that dynamic. there is a shift there. tom: does it lead to a late 90's dollar? alan: i think it's a measured dollar. we had nine months of 175 down to 105. we will do this over a two or three year time. tom: the idea of the first and second of -- derivatives. brendan: i think the next move we are dealing with is janet yellen working her way up the staircase. alan: i think you've already seen and struggled. america is getting hammered for a variety of reasons.

what we are seeing of late is europeans doing well. that is probably the pick of the crop as long as europe doesn't really slide. brendan: it's time for our twitter question of the day. will we have a greek deal by monday? tom: let's answer the question right now. we would like to know what you think. i don't think so. brendan: close. alan: i think we should be there i'm a bit of an optimist at this stage. i don't want to speak for which bank. brendan: i always thought that at the end of -- we talk and talk and talk, we will get a deal. i always assumed that would happen. and for a brief moment, it looked like we wouldn't get there. allen: they change the clock. tom: coming up, michael mckee

speaks with the president of the federal reserve bank of austin eric rosengren it. that is later today. it's bloomberg surveillance. ♪

tom: we saw the 30 year bond an

hour ago. we've moved 15 basis points. yields are higher with the news in greece. let's take a look at york. brendan: there will be a tickertape parade for the women's national soccer team. they are coming off their world cup win last weekend. stephanie ruhle will be covering this on market rules. i am really excited to talk about something that is important the pay gap between men soccer and women's soccer. stephanie: it's something of a tough argument. this is a supply and demand world. we have free markets. in the past, women soccer hasn't warranted big paychecks. we're going to sit down and talk about the women's pro soccer league that failed.

it has been replaced by the national women soccer league. last sunday, there were more viewers step up in tune in for that game. this is their marketing moment. they are american heroes. how long is that going to last? they are going to play in next mission game in a couple of months. brendan: when you look at the sponsors for the parade, you've got nike, under armour, electronic arts. that is crucial. a lot of people were introduced to fifa through the videogame. stephanie: think about the extraordinary success kim kardashian's game has said. there are more gamers now than there were five years ago. you want to step in. there is no surprise that ikea and under armour already sponsor the athletes. is this the moment when women

soccer can step it up in terms of paydays and marketability. brendan: what is the sense that you get that they are committing not just to women's apparel but soccer specifically. stephanie: they are big sponsors of these athletes. how long can these women maintain their popularity? maria sharapova is popular. she is an outlier in terms of being a superstar. can the soccer gals do it? did i just say gals? brendan: is tennis the comparison? stephanie: that is the goal. they will be paid what the market demands. is there a selling out of stadiums and arenas? brendan: you are right. i'm looking, the feeifa is $15

million. stephanie: how much to the tickets go for? how popular is it? i would love for them to get paid more. brendan: it is time for our twitter question of the day. answer us.

tom: let's get to our top headlines. brendan: 10 suspects arrested in the last four weeks may have had ties to isis. militants are communicating with coded things that can't be deciphered. apple has lost $38 billion in market value during the latest losing streak. this bill the first report to include sales of apple washes. for the third time this week writers humbled in the tour de france.

the race ends 16 days from now in paris. those are your top headlines. tom: we've never seen this? brendan: i would just say it's lightning striking three times. he was just a mile out. his teammates helped him cross the finish line. he had a broken collarbone. tom: everybody falls over. let's look forward. greece is front and center with a massive risk on trade getting to the parliament vote this afternoon. donald trump is having some sport across his business world as he enters the adult political world as well. a tickertape parade will be held in york city today.

we need to move back to economics. we have talked about what's happening on wall street and in athens. how is it playing out in the rest of the world? michael mckee is out in jackson hole at the economic summit. you talked to some important guests? michael: i want to point out there is a gorgeous sunrise beginning here in the mountains. we are in idaho. i just want to make you tell us. it is beautiful here. the conversations are the same. when will the fed raise interest rates? we have experts. on greece, he is the chairman of ubs. after reading through the greek proposals, he told me he is cautiously optimistic. he thought that they would

blink. >> i see this us another round. the one thing i think will determine the outcome is the great people in opinion polls always a voted for staying in the euro. if you want to stay in the euro you have to play by the rules. the euro is a community currency that requires a lot of policy coordination. i think what we see going forward is the greeks are coming around to that. michael: as fascinating is greases, and investors are more consumed by what the fed is going to do and the impact of higher interest rates. charles told me this is no impediment to an account is ready for higher rates. >> i think they will raise. there is a desire to raise rates, get monetary policy off zero.

opportunities need to be seized. michael: that is idaho this morning. interestingly they are optimistic about whether they will move this. weakness in asia would exacerbate the currency impact of a fed rate hike. he thinks they may be more cautious. there will be more voices heard at this summit. we will have an interview with the boston fed president. tom: the conferences become ever more important in idaho. what will be the fireworks that you would predict at the jackson hole summit this year? michael: it's going to be about the timing. we know that janet yellen is not going to the jackson hole summit

because it comes right before the september meeting when they might raise interest rates. she does not want to be seen as pushing one side of the other. we will talk to some fed officials and find out what they are thinking days ahead of when they might make a great move for the first time in seven years. tom: final thoughts with alan ruskin this morning. your team has done a great job of gaining the minutia with a major picture. how data dependent is the fed right now? do they have a vision? alan: i think they have a vision of where the data will go which will lead them to the point of tightening this year. it's very data dependent. a couple of weak employment reports, that changes the picture. tom: will we stay measured 18 months from now.

we remember mr. greenspan. are we going to do it again? alan: i think the new word is gradual. i think if you look at what janet yellen has said in the past -- brendan: there was a time when we thought she might do an experimental pop up and see what happened. now we're looking at a staircase? alan: i think you act. you see how the markets responding you get the feedback from the markets in terms of what bonds and equity does. as long as it doesn't tighten financial things too much, you can tighten again. brendan: should they also be pricing in some kind of collapse or downturn? alan: it would not be a central forecast. the chinese have numerous

weapons. there is clearly a meltdown. that is one of the considerations out there. tom: we are going to wander down to the twitter question of the day. brendan: will we have a greek deal by monday? the answer. no. they will work on plan b. the question is, does the eurogroup the summit has to come up with some language. tom: we fast track it as hans and says. what happens after sunday? brendan: if they sign off on this deal, there is no need for the summit. we have a huge problem. there is no precedent of an exit

from the euro. we've got to move on. this is the next twitter answer. expect a deal. monday, expect the ecb to increase the ela. tom: that is the issue here. they've got to get the banks open. brendan: we seem to have a lot of scare quotes. they seem to be experts on having meetings. they have done a complete 180. who knows what's next. we will go with that. he has given them what they ask. we are no longer looking at the terms of the deal. we are looking to see if trust is there. tom: we have been given a great brief this morning. i would suggest showing up front and center. i wonder what will upset the

apple cart like we had four or five days ago. i'm skeptical that it's going to go smoothly as it appears to be going right now. brendan: janet yellen is going to speak at 12:30 p.m. today. things are moving so quickly. that used to be enough to figure out what is going on. we don't know what the thinking has been. we will see what she's going to say. i think it's going to be developments abroad. this is an extraordinary change in south carolina and such a short amount of time in the way we feel about such a central issue in america. i'm watching to see how that develops. tom: it was something. that comes down today on the government building. brendan: it's on the lawn of the capital. tom: to me, that's the same. we're going to continue on bloomberg radio. don't forget, there's a parade

in new york city. good morning.

stephanie: good morning.

erik: had this hour, greece lays out a planet. now it's up to the creditors to decide if it's credible. stephanie: how about donald trump's politics hurting his business and a tickertape parade for the great ladies of women's soccer right here in new york city. erik: we will start with top stories. greece and its creditors went head-to-head and it appears greece blinked he is offered to meet most of the creditors demands. he put on the table a series of spending cuts. in return, greece wants a $59 billion bailout. long-term debt will be more manageable. the new plan is credible in serious. he will have his first debate in the greek parliament. negotiators are trying to reach a deal on th