alix: u.s. stocks rallying along with european markets as great contagion subsides. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" a wild week, chinese stocks posted the biggest today gains since 2008. joe: the world is swimming in oil. parses -- prices may fall further. alix: it has been an intense and crazy week. the stock market was all over the place. hold that level, rose above it. we have seen the best day gain in two months for the s&p but the nasdaq is looking at a weekly loss on the week. we're looking at [inaudible]

joe: amazing week and another huge day in europe. yesterday we saw gains at 2% and 3%. we saw them again today. very exciting final day of the week. had to speechllen at the city club of cleveland. i was taking a look at what they were doing. expectations for rate increases in september increased. that was interesting. joe: it was made clear hike was coming but it was interesting there was no major market reaction one way or another from that speech. it landed very quietly like she probably wanted. alix: maybe because people were on vacation. i want to take a deep dive into my terminal and take a look at what the iaea is afraid about. talk about how

bearish they were. this chart shows you non-opec crude oil production. the u.s., russia, mexico. you're looking at 57 million barrels of oil a day. almost double what opec produces. stopa says that will growing. mexico will have negative supply growth as well as norway in china. more pressure on saudi arabia and saudi arabia is getting maxed out. huge issue for 2016. i will take the overage and say it will rise again next year. to talk about greece and deep dive into the terminal to look at the greek etf's. the market has not been trading but there is an etf, trades in the u.s. that track rake stocks.

anyone who is trading this is the same gambler who wants to have big moves. after the referendum we saw this huge crash on the day after the referendum but it has made an extraordinary come back and regained 80% of its losses. despite the fact there has been no underlying trading in athens. one fun proxy of looking at greece. alix: i want to talk more about greece. our guestned by -- begin the term grexit. joe: this is like having a legit celebrity. it is unfortunate it is a

much in the news. we will not have the final resolution this week. we are just about to see another deal being struck which will do a little more than kick the can a little bit further down the road. joe: you think deal this weekend, that will be struck but can kicked and grexit can still happen? >> probably the still -- still the most likely outcome. you cannot rule out. it is not unavoidable. joe: your team at citi has gone on opposite sides of the call. you were pretty famous for 90% odds of a grexit. that did not happen. this year you are saying no grexit and you have predicted that greeks would oh yes comfortably -- would vote yes comfortably in the referendum. you are back to the grexit cam. why is this call so hard and walk me through the akin fourth calls on that? >> there are in numerous uncertainties. beenhing we have

consistent on is to highlight that there are these uncertainties. it is an unprecedented situation and we're dealing with players we do not know all that much about. mostly the great prime investor -- greek prime minister. only normal that you would expect surprises and outcomes that people do not expect. much there has been so turmoil since they announced the referendum. can you quantify how much damage has been done to the economy in the last 14 days? >> enormous damage. the fact that the banks have been closed for a while now. political uncertainty is going to stick for some time. the banks will not open normally for quite a long time. look at cypress. it took two years were controls to be lifted. it will be a major hit. a couple of percentage points will be taken off growth. the deal still valid

because that assumes we did not have the two weeks. do think the creditors will come back and say no, that does not work as your economy has shrunk so we will need austerity or well that your that and pretend this is not the case? >> ultimately, yes. the same deal would not have added up at the time. it does not add up anymore. it will have to be made up of some mix of austerity and debt relief. table at somethe point. alix: if we get a deal, what would happen over the next two or three years that would precipitate a grexit. even if we get a deal the sunday or before july 20, grexit is therefore more likely than not for the next two to three years. what would be the catalyst? >> first of all we have to keep in mind that this deal is about

patching over the summer. both parties find in their interest not to miss this. this is a bridge that will get us to a place where we are still fully uncertain about the sustainability of greece in the eurozone. when you're asking about catalyst, we can have what we have had over the last three years, a record that is blotchy and ultimately i think, a lack of recovery in the economy. if you do not have some growth, then i think greece's position will be [indiscernible] joe: could you see a series of government gaining market access? the credibility, could you see that? >> we are a long way away. joe: something that worries me is that the fact that all these programs have a tendency to destroy governments. if you look at mario monti after he implemented a program he went

out with 3% of the vote. finished.s this seems like a problem for europe. anything that the creditors except destroys the government and the new get these radical figures. >> they promised people a better deal and that is not what they're going to get. even if they get a deal, they will find it difficult to stay in power if they have to implement it. joe: until we get something more extreme? >> the hope is they will fear ack. -- veer b alix: i want to bring up a chart what should scare germany and it is about 800 billion euros. the bank of greece owes the bundesbank. does that matter? >> i do not know where the number comes from. germany started to claim in that

order of magnitude but greece's liability is above that. for germany right now what they are most worried about is a situation in greece being replicated elsewhere. so more worried than greece exiting the eurozone, they are about the potential for countries like spain or italy to move in that direction. intothey will have to give today most -- in spain. that is something we could consider plausibly for a lot of different countries. >> being between a rock and a hard place. it is not even the germany -- issue of germany giving in. is -- spain and italy asking for it will be bad enough. joe: thank you very much. alix: a pleasure.

a rock star on this day. we're talking china. wiping out 2.9 joined dollars in value. we will show you two surprising stats that will put that number into perspective right after the break. ♪

the three point $9 trillion of value had been wept out of china's stock market in the recent selloff. that is more than germany's total output and equal to present -- president obama's 2002 proposed budget. that is crazy.

joe: despite the mess. alix: it is a big drop. and the upside is huge. guest is joining us. good to see you. am fascinated by this quote from the ft. it was at some graduation. top universities in china. shares --e the air the a shares, benefit the people. what explains the obsession they must have the market up? asked the government has put everything on the line here and stop thes going to fall. said they thought

it was a mistake and it was not necessary to support the market in this way. it is graduating from being a financial issue to being in some ways a national security issue. joe: is it about reputation or some economic issue? that if the market falls there will be domino's. story atant to have a the time when the economy was deteriorating. there is a disconnect between those two. a lot of people over the past year have said i hear some bad news coming out of china but look at the stock market. something good must be happening and the chinese government likes hearing that. the other thing is there may be some systemic risk from the margin lending that took place. and forced deleveraging that is taking place. the way to deal with that would be a focus on institutions that

might be in danger rather than trying to hold up the whole market. can i take the contrary view here, is it working? is the government getting the job done? but there40% selloff is a tiny bit of stabilization right at the end of that chart. is it still working? >> the market has gone up quite a bit but you have to put quotation marks around the word "market." half the stocks are not trading right now. they are suspended because of the difficulties with the stock market crash. in addition the government is going out and buying shares and it is telling companies they have to buy back their own shares. at the same time the public security ministry has come in and said it is illegal to sell shares not just short so but

sell shares when the government wants the to rise and that has put a chill over the market. i talked to friends in china who say they tried to place sell orders and the brokers rejected the sell orders. alix: wasn't shortselling a small part of the market to begin with? exit was. people not that share prices were going to rise infinitely and when they did not they wanted out. we have the official numbers and they are huge but

+++ these retail sites where you can step up with a hundred dollars and they will lend you massive amounts. they proliferate on the web in the will give you several x leverage. how much beyond the unofficial numbers is that a problem? alix: you can go on some websites and give $100. [indiscernible] >> goldman sachs calculated that it was 12% of the market flow. 3.5% of gdp. both of those numbers are, they said, the largest in the history of stock markets. joe: a decent reason for them to not want to see a crash. >> it does introduce an element of systemic risk that the focus should be, a lot of people compare the governments intervention to tarp. it was about saying once they have fallen, are there going to be institutions that are in danger and cause a cascade of defaults? it is better to focus on that than to support the whole market. alix: despite all this negativity i am still feeling -- seeing bullish calls in the market. as far as the fundamentals are concerned, we are quite confident we are fully invested.

goldman sachs said they see about 27% upside in the next 12 months in the large-cap stocks. these are big firms calling for big targets. >> i have a different view of the fundamentals. the p/e ratios in china are still quite high, especially if you discount the banks which trade a very low multiple because they have a lot of unrecognized bad debt. i think the market has quite a bit to fall if it is allowed to function as a market. but it ist aspersions true that the chinese government leveled a lot of blame on foreign investment banks over the past several days, called them even evil. bit of them may be a little concerned about making a negative call on china. fascinatings a call. thanks for joining us. we will head back to greece

in a moment. guess who was missing all the excitement to hang out on an island? the answer after the break. ♪

joe: we asked you who was missing tonight's vote to hang out on an island. the answer, the former finance minister caught on camera heading off to an island for the weekend. alix: is and he still a member of parliament? boat bydid register his proxy -- vote by proxy. alix: that is smart. joe: someone who is not to

miss the vote. nick joins us live. they are voting imminently, is that correct? nick: tnot imminently. the debate is about to get underway and it will go on for three and a half, maybe four hours and then we will have the vote. a.m.ote will be about 3 greek time. onx: what is the mood there the ground? you had greeks saying no to credit reforms and now parliament is being asked to pass those creditor reforms. how do people feel? nick: has been quite a turnaround from seeming to be on the verge of a deal with lenders to then seeming to be on the verge of a grexit, and now the deal seems to be back on.

the people are getting whiplash looking from one way to the other trying to understand what the government is doing, what the lenders want and working things out in their own minds. i think the majority of people want a deal. they can see this one will be relatively painful but the prospect of leaving the euro is something i think scare people -- scares people more. joe: what is the feeling of the fact that a week ago people voted no to the creditor offer and now suppress -- tsipras has come back. feel tsiprasers has caved? do.: wthey we had another no protest organized by the communist party

and other smarter groups. supporters as well. you watch the social media and the reaction last night when the proposals went into parliament was pretty negative. people surprised, perplexed, wondering exactly what the referendum had been about exact the. what's with the debating starting at midnight your time? why? theat has happened here is proposals which were sent to the lenders yesterday were also submitted in the greek parliament, and the government wants to vote on them before the finance minister and the prime minister go to negotiate. we have a eurogroup meeting, a meeting of eurozone finance

minister's coming up tomorrow afternoon in brussels and they want a vote. they want a mandate, and authorization from the greek parliament to negotiate on this both because they believe it is the proper process to follow but more importantly, because they want to show lenders that we are serious, we have the backing of the greek parliament, we are here to clinch a deal. unfortunately, this is the only way of doing it. they have gone through committee level, they have been approved their. now we have to start the session and the plenary. there will be a vote. joe: thank you. alix: can you imagine if we asked congress to do that? joe: we will be right back.

joe: there is something you should not miss. this weekend, chinese trade data is coming out. we have been talking a lot about the chinese market but we will get new information about the chinese economy. i will be curious to see what imports do. they have been trending sharply lower for a while and it will be an interesting gauge for countries that export to china. an important number. alix: we're looking at three days of talking. congress has 60 days to look at the plan. this delays sanction relief. joe: everyone will have to pay more attention. meeting willogroup

discuss the bailout request and if it does not go through, we will have an emergency summit of eurozone leaders on sunday. joe: thanks for watching "what'd you miss?" alix:

emily: gamers and movie stars and bloomberg west. we have invaded downtown san diego for comiccon. we have it all. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang and this is a special bloomberg west live from comic-con in san diego. coming up, movie games and movie studios are using virtual reality. i will be joined by the man responsible for sony's prt