>> we are moments away from the closing bell. i am alix steel. and i am joe weisenthal. alix: u.s. stocks rallying along with european markets as greek contagion subsides. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" alix: after a wild week, chinese stocks posted the biggest today

-- two day gains since 2008. joe: the world is swimming in oil. prices may fall further. alix: it has been an intense and crazy week. the stock market was all over the place. s&p below its average for two closing days in a row. it did not hold that level, rose above it. we have seen the best day gain in two months for the s&p but the nasdaq is looking at a weekly loss on the week. we are looking at a dell -- dow negative for the year. joe: amazing week and another huge day in europe. yesterday we saw gains at 2% and 3%. we saw them again today. very exciting final day of the week. alix: janet yellen had a speech at the city club of cleveland. i was taking a look at what they were doing. expectations for rate increases

in september increased. that was interesting. joe: it was made clear hike was coming but it was interesting there was no major market reaction one way or another from that speech. it landed very quietly like she probably wanted. alix: maybe because people were on vacation. i want to take a deep dive into my terminal and take a look at what the iea is afraid about. a lot of people talk about how bearish they were. this chart shows you non-opec crude oil production. that is the u.s., russia, mexico. you're looking at 57 million barrels of oil a day. almost double what opec produces. the iea says that will stop growing. mexico will have negative supply

growth, as well as norway in china. more pressure on saudi arabia and saudi arabia is getting maxed out. huge issue for 2016. joe: i will take the overage and say it will rise again next year. i wanted to talk about greece and deep dive into the terminal to look at the greek etf's. the market has not been trading but there is an etf, trades in the u.s. that track rake stocks. -- that track greek stocks. anyone who is trading this is the same gambler who wants to have big moves. after the referendum we saw this huge crash on the day after the referendum, but it has made an extraordinary come back and regained 80% of its losses. despite the fact there has been no underlying trading in athens. one fun proxy of looking at greece. alix: i want to talk more about greece.

we are joined by our guest who xit."d the term "greg's joe: this is like having a legit celebrity. coiner of the word "grexit." >> it is unfortunate it is a much in the news. we will not have the final resolution this week. we are just about to see another deal being struck which will do a little more than kick the can a little bit further down the road. joe: you think deal this weekend, that will be struck but can kicked and grexit can still happen? >> probably still the most likely outcome. you cannot rule out. it is not unavoidable. joe: your team at citi has gone on opposite sides of the call.

you were pretty famous for 90% odds of a grexit. that did not happen. this year you are saying no grexit and you have predicted that greeks would oh yes -- would vote yes comfortably in the referendum. that did not happen. grexit camp.to the why is this call so hard and walk me through the calls on that. >> there are in numerous uncertainties. one thing we have been consistent on is to highlight that there are these uncertainties. it is an unprecedented situation and we're dealing with players we do not know all that much about. mostly the greek prime minister. it is only normal that you would expect surprises and outcomes that people do not expect. alix: there has been so much turmoil since they announced the referendum. can you quantify how much damage

has been done to the economy in the last 14 days? >> enormous damage. the fact that the banks have been closed for a while now. political uncertainty is going to stick for some time. the banks will not open normally for quite a long time. look at cypress. it took two years were controls to be lifted. it will be a major hit. a couple of percentage points will be taken off growth. joe: is the deal still valid because that assumes we did not have the two weeks. do think the creditors will come back and say no, that does not work as your economy has shrunk so we will need austerity or will they ignore that and pretend this is not the case? >> ultimately, yes. the same deal would not have added up at the time. it does not add up anymore. it will have to be made up of some mix of austerity and debt

relief. it will be on the table at some point. alix: if we get a deal, what would happen over the next two or three years that would precipitate a grexit. i want to read a quote -- even if we get a deal the sunday or before july 20, grexit is therefore more likely than not for the next two to three years. what would be the catalyst? ebrahim: first of all we have to keep in mind that this deal is about patching over the summer. both parties find in their interest not to miss this. this is a bridge that will get us to a place where we are still fully uncertain about the sustainability of greece in the eurozone. when you're asking about catalyst, we can have what we have had over the last few years, a record that is blotchy and ultimately i think, a lack of recovery in the economy. if you do not have some growth,

then i think greece's position will be [indiscernible] joe: could you see a series of government gaining market access? given the credibility, could you see that? ebrahim: we are a long way away. joe: something that worries me is the fact that all these programs have a tendency to destroy governments. if you look at mario monti after he implemented a program he went out with 3% of the vote. another was finished. this seems like a problem for europe. anything that the creditors accept destroys the government and you get these radical figures. ebrahim: they promised people a better deal and that is not what they're going to get. even if they get a deal, they will find it difficult to stay in power if they have to implement it. joe: until we get something more

extreme? ebrahim: the hope is they will veer back. alix: i want to bring up a chart that says what should scare germany and it is about 800 billion euros. the bank of greece owes the bundesbank. does that matter? ebrahim: i do not know where the number comes from. germany started to claim in that order of magnitude but greece's liability is above that. that is for the whole of the eurozone. for germany right now what they are most worried about is a situation in greece being replicated elsewhere. so more worried than greece exiting the eurozone, they are about the potential for countries like spain or italy to move in that direction. joe: one concern year here, they spain.ve to give ainto

that is something we could consider plausibly for a lot of different countries. ebrahim: being between a rock and a hard place. it is not the issue of germany giving in. for spain and italy asking for it will be bad enough. joe: thank you very much. alix: a pleasure. a rock star on this day. we're talking china. the worst selloff in two decades, wiping out to $.9 billion in value. we will show you two surprising stats that will put that number into perspective right after the break. ♪

alix: the $3.9 trillion of value had been wiped out of china's stock market in the recent selloff. that is more than germany's total output and equal to president obama's 2002 proposed -- 2015 proposed budget. that is crazy. joe: despite the mess, that is not bad. alix: it is a big drop. and the upside is huge. patrick is joining us. good to see you. joe: i am fascinated by this quote from the ft. the setting was a graduation at

a university. patrick: one of the top universities in china. joe: revive the the a shares, benefit the people. i cannot believe that is real. what explains the obsession they must have the market up? patrick: the government has put everything on the line here and said it is going to stop the market from falling. a prominent financial magazine said they thought it was a mistake and not necessary to support the market in this way. they have put a lot on the line. it is graduating from being a financial issue to being in some ways a national security issue. joe: is it about reputation or some economic issue? that if the market falls there will be dominos. patrick: they want to have a

story at the time when the economy was deteriorating. that is a problem because there is a disconnect between those two. a lot of people over the past year have said i hear some bad news coming out of china but look at the stock market. something good must be happening in china and the chinese government likes hearing that. the other thing is there may be some systemic risk from the margin lending that took place. and forced deleveraging that is taking place. the way to deal with that would be a focus on institutions that might be in danger rather than trying to hold up the whole market. alix: can i take the contrary view here, is it working? is the government getting the job done? if you look at margin trading you saw a 40% selloff but there , is a tiny bit of stabilization right at the end of that chart. is it working? patrick: the market has gone up quite a bit but you have to put quotation marks around the word "market."

half the stocks are not trading right now. they are suspended because of the difficulties with the stock market crash. and in addition the government is going out and buying shares and it is telling companies they have to buy back their own shares. at the same time the public security ministry has come in and said it is illegal to sell shares, not just short sell, but sell shares when the government wants them to rise. that has put a chill over the market. i talked to friends in china who say they tried to place sell orders and the brokers rejected the sell orders. alix: wasn't shortselling a small part of the market to begin with? patrick: yes, it was. people fought that share prices -- people thought that share

prices were going to rise infinitely and when they did not they wanted out. joe: we have the official numbers and they are huge but also these grey market lenders, these retail sites where you can step up with $100 and they will lend you massive amounts. they proliferate on the web in the will give you several x leverage. how much beyond the unofficial numbers is that a problem? alix: you can go on some websites and give $100. you can get $1000. it is not official. patrick: we do not know how big it is. if we were looking at official numbers, goldman sachs calculated that it was 12% of the market flow. 3.5% of gdp. both of those numbers are, they said, the largest in the history of stock markets. joe: a decent reason for them to not want to see a crash. patrick: that is great when it goes up. it is terrible when it goes down. it does introduce an element of systemic risk that the focus should be, a lot of people

compare the governments intervention to tarp. it was about saying once they have fallen, are there going to be institutions that are in danger and cause a cascade of defaults? it is better to focus on that than to support the whole market. alix: despite all this negativity i am still feeling -- seeing bullish calls in the market. fidelity, they say, as far as the fundamentals are concerned, we are quite confident we are fully invested. goldman sachs said they see about 27% upside in the next 12 months in the large-cap stocks. these are big firms calling for big targets. patrick: i have a different view of the fundamentals. the p/e ratios in china are still quite high, especially if you discount the banks which trade a very low multiple because they have a lot of unrecognized bad debt. i think the market has quite a bit to fall if it is allowed to function as a market.

not to cast aspersions but it is true that the chinese government leveled a lot of blame on foreign investment banks over the past several days, called them even evil. some of them may be a little bit concerned about making a negative call on china. alix: that is a fascinating call. patrick, thanks for joining us. joe: we will head back to greece in a moment. guess who was missing all the excitement over tonight's vote in athens to hang out on an island? the answer after the break. ♪

joe: we asked you who was missing tonight's vote to hang out on an island. the answer, the former finance minister, yon us varoufakis, caught on camera heading off to an island for the weekend. alix: is and he still a member of parliament? joe: he did register his vote by proxy. alix: that is smart. joe: someone who is not to miss the vote. nick joins us live. what is about to happen? they are voting imminently, is that correct? nick: not imminently. the debate is about to get underway and it will go on for three and a half, maybe four hours and then we will have the vote. the vote will be about 3:00 a.m. greek time.

alix: what is the mood there on the ground? you had greeks saying no to creditor reforms and now parliament is being asked to pass those creditor reforms. how do people feel? nick: it has been quite a turnaround from seeming to be on the verge of a deal with lenders to then seeming to be on the verge of a grexit, and now the deal seems to be back on. the people are getting whiplash looking from one way to the other trying to understand what the government is doing, what the lenders want and working things out in their own minds. i think the majority of people want a deal. they can see this one will be relatively painful but the prospect of leaving the euro is something i think scares people more. joe: what is the feeling of the fact that a week ago people voted no to the creditor offer

and now tsipras has come back. -- has come back with an offer that resembles an offer the greeks could have gotten a couple of weeks ago? do the no voters feel tsipras has caved? nick: they do. we are watching the reaction on the street tonight. we had another no protest organized by the communist party and other smarter groups. -- other smaller groups. it has divided supporters as well. you watch the social media and the reaction last night when the proposals went into parliament was pretty negative. people surprised, perplexed, wondering exactly what the referendum had been about exact ly. alix: what's with the debating

starting at midnight your time? why? nick: what has happened here is the proposals which were sent to the lenders yesterday were also submitted in the greek parliament, and the government wants to vote on them before the finance minister and the prime minister go to negotiate. we have a eurogroup meeting, a meeting of eurozone finance ministers coming up tomorrow afternoon in brussels and they want a vote. they want a mandate, and authorization from the greek parliament to negotiate on this both because they believe it is the proper process to follow but more importantly, because they want to show lenders that we are serious, we have the backing of the greek parliament, we are here to clinch a deal. unfortunately, this is the only way of doing it. they have gone through committee

level, they have been approved there. now we have to start the session and the plenary. there will be a vote. joe: thank you. alix: can you imagine if we asked congress to do that? joe: it would be fun staying up until 3:00 a.m. for a vote. we will be right back. ♪

joe: there is something you should not miss. this weekend, chinese trade data is coming out. we have been talking a lot about the chinese market but we will get new information about the chinese economy. i will be curious to see what imports do. they have been trending sharply lower for a while and it will be an interesting gauge for countries that export to china. an important number. alix: we're looking at three days of talking about iran. congress has 60 days to look at the plan. armed purchases are a sticking this delays sanction relief. point. joe: everyone will have to pay more attention. alix: the eurogroup meeting will discuss the bailout request and if it does not go through, we

will have an emergency summit of eurozone leaders on sunday. joe: thanks for watching "what'd you miss?" alix: have a great weekend. see you back on monday. ♪ sçkw?c?coó

>> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: a look at gender identity and the biology of the brain. it is the subjective experience of their own gender. it may or may not correspond to the sex assigned at them at birth. it describes someone who feels his or her body and gender do not match. about 700,000 transgendered people live in the united states. one joins me today to share his experien