>> nuclear reaction, discussions for a fourth day. >> divided parties. tsipras returns to athens amid signs that syriza is recommending. >> after a nine-year journey the massive spacecraft new horizons will be back pictures of the dwarf planet. -- will be metam back pictures. >> good morning, welcome to "countdown"." plenty to talk about an oil is certainly front and center. crude reality will come into

focus today as we watch and see what happens with today's iran nuclear story. anthony: we are waiting for something to happen. how long will it take the iranians to get their crude. they are wrestling with your the banks say it could take 12 months. >> markets are discounting mechanism and they are already discounting. we are starting to see the price of crude you can see it is coming down over the last few days. expectations are that if we do see a deal, it will continue to soften. anna: the great optimism -- greek optimism. an agreekment. that is really horrible. it was the picture up optimism.

some of the gloss has come off of it. you can see the shanghai reacting. >> that his house or reza will be debating a little bit later on today. let's carry on the conversation about it looks set to be announced today. anna: diplomats are starting to prepare the final text sometime this morning. elliott has more details. it does feel like we have been here before. how many times have they missed to these deadlines? do we really have a deal this morning? elliott: it looks that way. i know it can feel like deja vu all over again. they have blown through four deadlines. including one last night that expired at midnight. we have had been told that the deal is imminent only to fail to

materialize. this time, it really does feel different. we understand from four officials indiana that diplomats are preparing the document of the agreement. we note that foreign ministers met after midnight last night to get the final push to this deal which could be announced at any moment. until we actually see one of these foreign ministers from world powers or iran or one of their representatives at a microphone, publicly announcing that the deal has been done. perhaps even holding the actual agreement in the air. i would keep the champagne on ice. >> elliott, as you say, it has been a long time in the making and we get lost in the details. the big picture story here could be very big. just remind us, walk us through ultimately if a deal is done, what does it mean? elliott: essentially there were two objectives. the main one was to prevent iran

from getting a hold of the bomb. and iran wanted the sink is lifted. it would seem to provide that both of those things specifically that iran's enrichment program would be curtailed. they would have to open themselves up to interest of inspections. as part of a side deal, iran has even agreed to allow other sites including military sites to be open to inspectors in the global nuclear watchdog. on the other side, economic sanctions will be lifted. the arms embargo will be lifted. we don't know the specific timescales for that. some of the details have also emerged that iran will the allowed to buy airplanes and will be allowed to sell foods to the united states and which may a pistachio farmers. everyone is a winner if these did -- if this deal is done. a nod to this ingestion that the

delays were down to the iranians and americans wanting to go back to their constituents to claim victory. here in israel, and the government, they will not see any deal as being a victory. anna: iran's foreign minister said that we all will have won. it will require no spin. >> let's move on and return to greece. tsipras faces mutiny on the home front. before the rescue can be dispersed, greek lawmakers must agree on the deal. let's figure out what is happening. anna: ryan chilcote is in athens and hans nichols is in brussels. will the prime minister be able to push these measures through parliament? there are many difficult -- different opinions about this. ryan: at the moment, it looks

like he will be able to but not without sacrificing some of his own power base. two of the factions that have up till now supported the prime minister indicate that have indicated they will not support him with regard to these austerity measures. that is within his own party. that is his coalition. they have said they cannot do it. they alone would rob the prime minister of the 12 seat majority that he currently has in the parma -- in the parliament. the head of the independent greeks gave a press conference yesterday. he is also this countries the defense mister. have a listen. >> we will remain together to fight but we will not accept participating in the so-called unity government with partners that are giving away everything. ryan: there are the keywords.

we will remain together to fight. the defense minister, despite voicing his opposition to this deal, has not resigned. it is not clear that the prime minister would fire him or any of the other dissenters. there are suggestions that the prime minister could go for a minority government style approach where he could solicit the approach -- the support of other parties which would easily give him the majority that he needs. he may not even need to reshuffle the government as we have been discussing because at the end of the day, this measure is the one where he would run into the most trouble. >> ryan, let me pick up and give you a headline that is coming out. i want to get your reaction to it. tsipras weighing resigning after wednesday's parliament.

that may pave the way for an interim government. this is the story now. we are waiting to see a tsipras can pull together a new coalition. how much chance is there? i know there was a lot of chat last week whether his party would be able to survive. ryan: look, the prime minister is a surprising guy. you have watched him in action for weeks very never say never. there is not a lot of chat about him resigning prior to that report this morning. the reality is that i think in brussels, they would have wanted to know that he is going to stick around to get this through parliament. probably, the creditors would be very happy with the notion that would not be very -- would not be very happy with the idea of political instability. his labor minister said that it might be necessary to have a snap election in this country. then again, the keyword is might

and the timeframe was that i the end of the year. -- by the end of the year. having a reshuffle before wednesday, would threaten and jeopardize the deal and getting the austerity measures through that the creditors want to unlock the 86 billion euros and eight. anna: hans let us bring you in. hans: one thing on the bill report is that they seem pretty well sourced in terms of the finance minister. it is a mass publication but their reporting is typically very good. let's put that -- we also have a question of rich financing. what are they going to do in the interim because remember last night, 450 million payment to the imf was the second missed payment to the imf. we do not have any clear indications that the finance

ministers think they have the authority to offer financing. in the neighbor of 7 billion euros. when we talk about this big project, the esm loan, he hinted and suggested that it broke my heart thinking it could last for more than a month. >> it will involve a lot more ther in terms of substance. it will take time to negotiate that. we have asked the institutions to do that as quickly as possible. it will probably be closer to four weeks then two weeks. some call me an optimist. hans: to pick up on what ryan was saying about the timeline and the dynamics in germany, it does look like chancellor merkel would call a vote on friday if athens passes their share on wednesday. it looks like she will have the votes. it does not look like there will be a major revolt there. quickly, some of the headlines that are crossing is well. from german presses.

a respected business daily is saying that debt certificates are being floated for their bridge financing. that is interesting that is coming from the finance ministry in germany. you could have debt certificates that could cover this short-term debt because on july the 20th there is 3.5 billion due to the ecb from grace. still no certainly -- certainty or clarity on how greece will get through the next stretch. anna: the german finance ministry is clearly -- clearly has a high level of creativity. >> coming up, we will go to morgan stanley and how they are warning that china could be the cause of the next global recession. stay tuned for that, up next.

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anna: welcome back. guy: these are the stories that you need to know. an official announcement is expected today from the negotiations regarding the iranian nuclear program. diplomats have been preparing the final text on the perspective agreement after 18 days of talks. it would mean iran could increase their experts. anna: the greek prime minister is back in athens and faces a mutiny within his government after surrendering to european demands to keep this country in the euro. alexis tsipras must persuade hardliners to expect -- to accept austerity conditions. the greek parliament had until tomorrow to pass into law key creditor demands including streamlining vat, curving

pension cost. guy: after a 9.5 year journey across 3 billion miles in space a nasa spacecraft is set to sweep past pluto around much time today. since will pass about 7800 miles from the door planet. -- from the dwarf planet. anna: that brings us to our first question. is space travel worth the --worth the investment? the public sector is pulling away from it. the private sector is adventurous. guy: we just spent 86 billion euros rescuing greece. is it a good investment chucking money into outer space? i would argue, absolutely. others think it is a colossal waste of time. anna: that is when we will have

to watch out for this nasa mission, new horizons passing pluto. guy: it is a long way away. anna: it took nine years to get there. let's look easy. china could tip the world into recession according to morgan stanley investment hedge of emerging markets. >> a recession has different definitions in different countries but in china they are really growing at about 5% rather than the 7% number. the chinese economy could slow down by a point or two more in the next couple of years. historically, the u.s. economy has mattered the most. every single major global recession in the last 50 years has been caused by the u.s. economy stumbling into recession. my take is in the next couple of years, the next global recession will be made in china, just like

many things in the world today. guy: china on that note will release its gdb figures tomorrow. -- gdp figures tomorrow. tomorrow's figure is expected to show growth of 6.8%. anna: back to the iranian news. an agreement with iran over its nuclear program and what it might do to commodity -- commodity markets and let's go to hong kong and talk to michael every. michael, good to have you on the program. i wonder if you could sum up investors sentiments. will it not do much to the oil price in the short-term or will we wait to see the piece of paper in the deal seven done before we see the real reactions in the markets? michael: i think the market has

priced it in to be honest because the leaks that of a out of these talks for some time have made it very clear that this deal was always going to be done despite some headline saying it was city-50 or that the u.s. would walk away. the u.s. really wants this deal. so does most of iran. it is going to happen in the market already reflects that. guy: will it keep oil prices low for longer? michael: i think near term, they will continue to edit down. that -- edge down. that is due to a slowing chinese economy and other key emerging markets that are not doing well. longer term, it might start to push prices back up again because countries in the region were extremely concerned and vocal that they do not like this deal. i think it could start a regional arms race. i don't see that pushing prices down but rather backup. anna: you have been talking

about china and the growth story. how solid is the governments target of 7% in terms of the full year growth figure? we focus a lot on the stock market of late, are you expecting that to have a negative impact around the sentiments of the chinese economy? michael: we will deftly see there was an impact in the last few weeks. that will carry forward for at least another few months. i think china will struggle to hit that 7% figure. they can always massage the data or increase in state spending in a particular quarter to try and get back up to that magic line in the sand. the underlying basis china is not growing sustainably at 7% anymore and it is borrowing future growth to try and keep it at that level. guy: what is the real number? what is the growth figure looking like? michael: on an underlying basis china is growing at about 4% or

4.5%. guy: that is sustainable growth? for how long? michael: 4% you can keep doing for another couple of years but i think it will even trade lower than that. the oversupply in the properties it -- sector, the oversupply in terms of infrastructure, is still an enormous and has not been dealt with. more important, the debt overhang is crippling. we are seeing today further debt numbers coming out of china. another $300 billion equivalent borrowed and that is not including rollover borrowing in local government. that is a near-term stimulus but at some time all of those bills have to be paid. anna: can we get your thoughts on greece. you had said an agreement was reached yesterday.

investors in asia, where they impressed by what they saw? michael: near-term, there was relief because we were tiptoeing towards a night -- a nightmare scenario. the recognition here is that they can has been kicked down the road. the greek story will not go away and we will keep hearing that word -- greece for some time yet. guy: if tsipras's party fall, and we get an election, how will the government story play into the market story? is that something that is priced in or expected? how will politics continue to shape? michael: i am a british guy sitting in hong kong talking about greek elections. i am not sure the inside angle. certainly, if things start to

crumble, the market will be extremely concerned. let's be honest, it really is not cut and dry yet. there could still be potentially problems getting it through parliament in any number of countries. also, people are ignoring, even if it gets through parliament in greece, what are the people themselves going to do? will the fy us --will they acquiesce? will they go out on the streets? anna: now, let's get an update on the asian markets. it looks as if the optimism we were experiencing around that great deal in europe and in the united states, it is not holding in the asian session. yvonne: there is some relief. we are seeing in terms of the asian stocks overall, the best four day games that we've seen in the last 18 months.

those have gained. the aussie stocks are at about 2%. china could be the outlier here today. coming back from the luncheon session, that shanghai composite is down by 7/10 of a percent and the hang and as well. here in hong kong, we are down about three force of a present. about 250 companies are back online today. where does that come in the pie chart here in the bigger scheme of things? 27% of the market is still frozen since tuesday morning. less than 800 companies have halted trading. you can see how things have looked like in the past day here. we are continuing to see those losses. we did see some foreign money rush in and the first 90 minutes of trade. the northbound traffic. we did see a selloff later on. the small caps have been the big

winners in the last few days getting about 18% from the low that we saw last week. it is a big companies for the first time in the last quarter days, the index is being dragged down. china data today, we got information about the money supply. about 11.8% for the month of june which did beat estimates. we also got aggregate financing which topped nearly $300 billion. the credit growth in china is beating estimates. we are seeing some recovery in demand after that monetary easing. four cuts, interest that's since november. guy: up next, we will be talking about the greek deal. he weighed in on the 86 billion euro bailout reached between the country and its creditors. >> this is really not about how

much greece will be a. it is about how much the greeks will have to suffer and this was all about sending a message. there is no escape. you don't get away with anything. greece, having made it clear that they were not willing to contemplate leaving the euro had no bargaining power. it is a very sad day. it was a humiliation. a ritual humiliation for greece. anna: paul krugman there. he has not been shy about contributing his thoughts. guy: not a happy camper. we are going to carry on the conversation as well. we will talk more about greece. we're going to be talking about space a little bit later on as well. pluto. not a small dog or a large dog but a planet. anna: nasa's mission called new

horizons has trouble 3 billion miles and more than 30,000 miles per hour. it will pass by pluto at 2:49 p.m., u.k. time. what you think? our investments worth doing, or not? ♪

anna: an official announcement is expected from negotiations to curb iran's nuclear program and . oil prices have continued to decline on that news as a deal would mean iran could increase crude exports to an already oversupplied market. guy: the greek prime minister is back in athens. he must sway hardliners to accept strict austerity

conditions and returned to -- four 86 billion euros. anna: after a nine and a half year journey across 3 billion miles of space, a nasa spacecraft is set to sweep past pluto at lunchtime today. it was discovered in 1930. pluto is the last planet in our solar system. guy: let's move on. stepping down as chair after trailing the benchmark. [indiscernible] $39 billion in assets. anna: here is talk about the

greek deal. our guest for the next hour. good to have you on the program. thanks for coming in. what are your key takeaways from greece, are you focusing on the short term implications and whether the grexit is off the table or are you concerned of where this leaves the rest of the eurozone? >> it was the first chancellor of germany who said this is the art of the possible. between what the eurozone would not do and what they could not do which is the grexit, we have three days to pass and then we have potentially bridge financing to tide greece over and then we have possibly making

a great deal. what is important is that we are working as a tradable market scenario. >> it was not a bailout. we should not call it a bailout. grexit is a refinancing deal that would allow greece to stay in the euro. at the moment greece is more out than in the eurozone. the greek back -- bank assets -- the euro is convertible to the tune of 60 euros per person per day. that is not enough and even when the bailout deal is extended, it will be sometime before greece can return to anything like the conditions we had in the economy. when the economy grew by 1.3%

when the minister of finance could come in and are a money from the market. officials were talking about the potential of creating a difference. something different that would allow greece more flexibility. it is not only possible now. it is unwinding the damage of those five months. it is probably the only scenario that the eurozone can find political will among all the finance ministers to get. guy: is the euro in the greek bank after this deal worth the same as a german bank, because of is not we have a problem. >> it is not. if today the minister of finance in greece would -- there would be a bank round that would collapse the system.

you it will cut off greece from ecb supports. this is part of the national system. guy: this is the it i have not seen solved it. even if they recap the banks trust has been so it wrote it in those institutions that rational people will say i am not putting my money in those institutions and i will not for a long time. >> this is why i felt a bit more optimistic about the deal that was tabled yesterday. the deal does include a very important provision of recapitalizing the greek banks. the direct -- [inaudible]

two separate bank risk from the state of government finances. they will take equity control which means that the greek banks can be assured even if the state continues to find [indiscernible] sir access to ecb finance and that will allow technically greece to remain within the eurozone. this deal is more of a insurance deal than a greek sovereignty insurance deal. this is part of the risky investors have to get used to. anna: the latvian premier is saying that they agreed to the reforms. do you think the eurozone was surprised that this was signed up to? it seems he is going to get it through his parliament but not

through support from his own party. was it designed to be rejected, was it designed to go this way? >> this is an important point. european finance ministers are probably more worried about risk than greek markets are. this could be compensation for the lack of a welfare system and economy. that would be the greek crisis. at this point greek politicians are aware that even if the -- if this was to pass paving the way to open talks, this will fracture the ruling party. this will probably leave to a new election. and greece cannot afford more financial uncertainty. we have an economy a system in

meltdown. anna: thank you. guy: the great people have been coming to terms with a capitulation. we found out how the decision has been cutting it with customers. ♪ >> we fought against austerity. we are all against austerity. on the other hand the fact is i

think the operative issue here is going to be whether in fact investments can be encouraged economic and financial development can take place and it is not enough to come out with statements about taxing the rich and things like this. these are easy statements to make. anna: from the street in athens.

guy: hillary clinton following the first major politics speech of her career. what a win will mean for the economy. after the break. ♪

anna: welcome back. 6:43 a.m. guy: official announcements. curbing the country's nuclear program in return for easing of sanctions. this after 18 days of talks. could mean iran could increase

exports into the market. anna: he must persuade hardliners to accept austerity conditions in return for 86 billion euros. >>guy: a nasa spacecraft is set to sweep past pluto. new horizons will pass at 31,000 miles an hour. this is the last planet to be explored. anna: britain is the first to

get the facility. guy: hillary clinton has outlined her plans. she focused on america's middle class and said the economy is not where it needs to be. >> i have had the opportunity to listen to americans' concerns about an economy that still is not delivering for them. it is not delivering the way it should. it still seems to most americans that i have spoken with that it is staffed for those at the top. anna: clinton suggested a fly and hold gains plan is part of the proposal to rein in wall street. hillary clinton i know firsthand the role that wall street can

and should play in our economy. helping main street grow and prosper and boosting new companies that make american -- america more competitive globally. as we know in the years before the crash, financial firms piled risk upon risk and regulators in washington either could not or would not keep up. i was alarmed by this gathering storm and called for addressing the risks of derivatives cracking down on subprime mortgages and improving financial oversight. guy: hillary clinton. the fund manager will remain chairman of the templeton emerging market group. here's what he had to say recently about what is going on in china. this is back in may.

>> the questions that went out previously is when. when will that -- when you get a bull market it can last a lot longer than people expect. if you are a technician, if you look at the gaps on the way out in the chart, you realize that they have to be closed. that results in a 25% correction. i think we are reaching the point where it is not going to be going up much more. maybe because of the ipo's. they have been coming in fast and furious. everyone of them has resulted in tremendous profits. this will draw money out as well. estonians have approved the

custodian arrangements in china. they are not going to russian because they realize we are at a high point. >> you could have jumped in but you did not. why not? >>mr. mobius: the luxembourg authorities have approved it and that represents at least half of the funds we manage. we now are beginning to invest but where to invest because the stocks have become so expensive in so many cases. we are better off in the hong kong a share market which is still let some discount. -- at some discount. anchor: if there is a correction coming what will

trigger it? mr. mobius: the government will give a signal saying no more margin accounts and that could be a trigger. anchor: they have said that. no more margin lending which put the cabal sean that. they feel people are too leveraged. mr. mobius: they are. the sky is the limit in terms of the number of people who have come in but it is the government's direction that will determine what happens. anna: you might be stepping down but he has a great deal of foresight about what is to come. that was in may. that is what happened.

carry on the conversation. -- a let's carry on the conversation. how big a drag is the chinese story on the global economy estimate -- economy? guest: what we have seen is the de-bubbling of several bubbles. the chinese market where margins of investing were such a big part the reduced -- it reduced the enormous collapse of equity prices in china which will have an impact on confidence at home. and we have the de-bubbling in credit markets in the early stages. this is -- it has been said

indicated by policies in the u.s. and this are -- the eurozone. the fact that this is happening at zero rate for major funding markets suggests if anything [indiscernible] in the correction will happen even as we get more pumped up through the ecb's que. anna: you are worried about the chinese story even though it was stumbling. were you worried about that anyway and the losses we saw on the stock market and the weight the regulated -- the way the regulators had to intervene, that adds to your concerns about chinese growth or does the stock market have little bearing on the fundamental growth story in china? guest: the stock market is much

higher than where things were five years ago. the wealth effect is still going to be there and what we have seen is a healthy shrugging off of some of the higher margin accounts which will bring valuations to perhaps a more sustainable, reasonable level. guy: even with the policy as loose as it is, we are de- bubbling. we are seeing some of the froth,. -- come off. if they don't pump up markets we are in a different story. guest: this seems like a resilient global environment. pmi still signaling a decent recovery. even countries that have emerged faster, the u.s. and the u.k.

still some way away from full capacity. we do not have an inflation problem. [indiscernible] in terms of left off. that should be the goldilocks scenario. that is a scenario that is saying major bubbles in emerging-market debt and china equities. that relates the problems that global officials face. [indiscernible] anna: if they decide that the u.s. is going to put up interest rates, when do you think that is going to happen? guest: the u.s. economy is not a zero rate economy. we have a rate that falls faster than the fed's projections. what we do not have is inflation

but there are two stories and that is the services and the goods in flechette and story. there is no sign of inflation risk. there is no sign of deflation risk anymore. the fed should be prepared to start raising rates this year. this is the message we had from janet yellen. the concern is that because the markets are pricing that risk them of the fed will be wary about creating tightening financial conditions and creating necessary dollar strength. the last thing markets need is tighter financing. guy: we have inflation data later. lena;: we are still in a no-flation in the u.k. when you look at wages growing at 3%, [indiscernible]

and so this is an economy that is doing better than cpi figures would suggest. you're absolutely right. this is the bank of england that has been preparing the road to a rate hike. cpi figures even though they are on the week side will not change projections in may is that u.k. [indiscernible] and higher than was projected in february. anna: if they are on target for their inflation target do they think wages are coming back? you do not seem to think so. you do think we are going to see some uplift in wages. lena: yes. what is important is that productivity is not getting anywhere. there is no consensus among officials about the latest

budget delivering anything that we can still put our finger on in terms of strong productivity growth. that is an inflation like a tail wind. the bank will get more confident particularly when you see signs bubbling up in housing. more confident in terms of moving in the direction. there is probably too much focus on the rate lift off which is what officials have stated. [indiscernible] the earlier the bank of england decides to act, the flatter the tranches will be. anna: thank you. guy: lee cohen talking about the risks surrounding this great deal.

wondering if this was the best solution. some thoughts from lena later in the program. anna: another round of negotiations. could the end be in sight? ♪

guy: oil falls on a third day on optimism on an agreement with iran. passing pluto. the new horizon will be back pictures of the dorf planet. welcome to "countdown." guy: the expectation is we will see and iran deal may be later

this afternoon. anna: they have missed four deadlines so far. we could get some news of a deal. how quickly will that bring down oil? maybe that is discounted into the price already. guy: fairly soft at the moment. we are trading down at the bottom of the recent range. some is definitely priced in already. 70% of a deal and, how do you ever tries the risks surrounding that? anna: let's talk about the asian equity session. we have a bit of a boost from the greek deal that was dropped

up in brussels over sunday into monday. a-greek-ment. the shanghai composite and hang seng are doing other things as they do. the picture has been a stronger one by a little bit because of that greek deal. guy: let's talk about what is happening surrounding this deal. 18 days of nonstop negotiations and we think the deal on iran's nuclear program looks set to be announced at some point today. officials in vienna say diplomats are presenting the final text at some point this morning. anna: elliott gotkine has more. good to see you again. it does feel like we have been here before. do we think we will have a deal today? ellitoott: it looks more imminent than it has been in the 18 days. they have missed four self-imposed deadlines the last

of which expired at midnight last night. the latest is a deal will be announced this afternoon and diplomats are drafting the final text of this agreement of a rants nuclear program as we -- iran's nuclear program as we speak. where likely to have a deal. we have said that many times before. i will not say when it will happen or say for sure if it is going to happen but that is what the best understanding and our best guess is that we will get some kind of an announcement later today on a deal over it rants -- iran's nuclear program. guy: is it possible to deduce the significance of the deal? elliott: according to top diplomats, the security of the world is at stake as a result of this deal. that i suppose gives it a broad significance. more specifically, the u.s.'s

aim and world powers' aim is to curtail their nuclear capacity. according to the framework in april about that breakout capacity that would be in place for about 10 years. iran's aim is to lift those crippling economic sanctions and get the u.n. arms embargo lifted. that looks likely to be included all the time scale we're not too sure of. there seems to be a potential for one or two sticking points maybe. we understood that as part of a side deal, iran has exceeded to the wish of world powers to allow inspections by the nuclear watchdog, the iaea to go in, for example, military sites. iranian television it seems is saying that is not the case. there is going to be a lot of words coming out from different quarters muddying what is going

on. we have to wait and see exactly what that final deal says but the broad significance of the deal and the broad implications of that program will be curtailed in exchange for those sanctions being lifted. guy: great stuff. thank you very much indeed. we will see later. anna: five minutes past seven in london. the greek prime minister faces mutiny on the homefront after he surrendered to more demands for austerity. greek lawmakers must agree to the deal. guy: let's go to our reporters. there is enough a lot of discussion about whether or not tsipras can pass the legislation with syriza's backing. can he get it through with his

government behind them? ryan: exactly right. he can get it through with the backing of the opposition parties. the support of his own power -- party in power base is in question. some say they will not support him when it comes to the security -- austerity measures. so, just those two factions together would deprive the prime minister of his 12 c majority, -- 12 seat majority and require him to do a deal with the opposition parties to get this through. they are for this deal so it seems like -- it is hard to imagine they would not support the prime minister on it. we heard yesterday from the greek defense minister, he is the leader of the independent greeks and had a press conference. let's listen to what he had to say. >> we will remain together to

fight but we will not accept or to spinning in a so-called in any governor it -- government with unity partners that are giving everything away. ryan: despite the fact that you hear the defense minister saying they will not support the prime minister, he seems to be suggesting he will not resign. what did the private investor do? phil hass a story out that he will resign. he could come back with a different constituency, with a different power base, with different partners area -- partners. he could rule with a minority government and get support as he needs it on an ad hoc basis. all the tough issues he does not have support for from his own power base, he would be able to get from the opposition. there is broad agreement that this deal, now that it has been

agreed, needs to be signed. i do not think -- the only issue now is how does tsipras stay in power and what does he do politically speaking with himself. anna: i thought agreements were agreed that there is a number of stages within that agreement process. it could be a while for we see greece getting the eight that it needs. >> we are talking about two tranches of money. there is a second -- a separate esm request. that will be a difficult process. it will be a long process. it may be to -- it may take a month's time. >> it will involve a lot more in terms of substance and commitments and financing needs and it will take time to

negotiate that. we have asked the institutions to do that is quickly as possible. bu t it will be closer to four weeks than two weeks. some call me an optimist. >> there are some big payments that greece owes. they missed a 450 million euro payment to the imf. they did pay 100 million, the smaller semi-bond -- samurai bond. anna: we are grateful for the german creativity. thank you. guy: let's bring in our guest.

saying i have my doubts about the implementation of this agreement. that will promote negative feelings. i wonder if the best solution was actually in a fit. that is a member of the ecb's governing council. lena: if there is confirmation the euro is breakable, this is probably it. what we have learned through this debacle is the ecb's promise of whatever it takes to protect the euro is [indiscernible] the eurozone continues to play with the long term, not with the short-term goal in mind. the long term is to make the euro safer. when you ask eurozone finance ministers or taxpayers, generally people feel this was the right thing to do. the only right thing to do.

even though it is politically economically, financially devastating for greece in the short term. none-eurozone economists will say, what are they doing to the greeks? the eurozone has drawn a separation between greece and the party. it is -- there is no reason to pay dividends to a party that reneged on the agreement that greece had with creditors. that introduced bank controls as a result of expansion. it was a result of domestic clinical risk. we had an economy that was accessing capital markets and it was growing. when you have an economy that has 3.5 people in unemployment, it does not take a lot for reforms to start paying off,. anna: has a firewall put between

greece and other peripheral nations in the eurozone? think of spain where unemployment rates have not been [indiscernible] lena: the eurozone is prepared to take risks the market is not prepared to take. no one is offering greece 85 billion at the moment. for default or debt relief. it does not bailout greece, but when it does do is it 62 -- [indiscernible] and by sticking to capitalize the greek banks and taking ownership of greek bank equity it separates the financial system and the good euro from the travails and volatility of the state. we have not seen the last of that one. anna: thank you for spending the last 45 minutes with us.

guy: coming up while the grexit has been ruled out, the future of greek banks remains uncertain. we will bring in bloomberg intelligence to get more. what is their future? stay tuned. we are back after this very short break. ♪

guy: welcome back. it is 7:16 a.m. in london. 8:16 a.m. in frankfurt. anna: here are the stories you need to know. an official announcement is expected from the negotiations to curb iran's nuclear program in return for easing sanctions. diplomats have been preparing to present the final text of an agreement after 18 days of talks. oil prices have continued to decline on that news as a deal would mean iran could increase crude exports to an already oversupplied market. guy: the great premised are is

back in athens -- greek prime minister is back in athens. he must persuade hardliners to accept strict new austerity conditions in return for 86 billion euros. anna: after a nine and a half year journey across 3 billion miles of space, a nasa spacecraft is set to pass pluto. it is traveling at 31,000 miles per hour. pluto is the last planet in our solar system to be explored. it has been downgraded to a dwar f planet. guy: spending an awful lot of money on greece, is that worth it? is space travel worth the investment? an awfully long way to go for a

few snaps. it will take a year and a half to bring all that data back. every day and twice on sunday, yes, it is worth the investment. anna: we can think of worse things to do with our money than to go and take pictures of pluto. i was taken aback when i was told this spacecraft is the size of apn oh. -- a piano. faster than the speed of sound. guy: significantly. we will talk about great banks. the energy minister has put out an e-mail statement. he is the left wing of seriza. if he were to knock back a

deal, that would be significant. the deal is "unacceptable" but maybe seriza is getting this through parliament. anna: let's stick with the subject of greece and the banking sector. jonathan tice joins us. we will talk about the shipping sector because the ceo of marine capital is also with us. run us through how bad the liquidity situation is for the greek banks. they are on life support at the moment. they are being protected. >> it is bad. they will run out of cash within days. some cash needs to be released to the banks. in a weeks time when the liquidity has not been improved

the capital flows will continue. liquidity then becomes solvency. you can talk about all the bad that, that is probably six or 12 months down the line. you cannot avoid addressing liquidity so it is bad. it is up to the ecb. we can wait till the 20th. the banks may not be there properly. liquidity of the banks is the most dressing thing. anna: we will hear something from the ecb and the next couple of days? jonathan: i can't see how -- something needs to give definitely. guy: the ecb will provide short-term liquidity. there is a bigger story here and that is convincing depositors that they should stop taking

their money out as aggressively as they are or possibly return money into the banking system. that requires a degree of trust which at the moment feels like it is absent. how do you saw that one? how do you make the greek people be convinced that their banking system is sound and solid and it is worth putting money back in the banks? jonathan: you restructure the banks. there is no real choice. it would be more comfortable especially when you strip out the bad debt. one of the issues is the ela is costing a lot of money. the ecb is giving hundreds of billions of targeted [indiscernible] the ela is costing 150 basis points. they were saying it is eroding our margins, the banks were saying. it has gone to a 9 billion.

50% more than their resale deposit base. that is the key to address. they just need cash. they can go on talking about bad banks and how they restructure it cash very near term capital controls will stay but it is about cash liquidity for the banks. anna: thank you. let's talk about shipping. tony foster has join us from -- joined us from marine capital. how does the shipping sector and of this great crisis, how touched by it has the shipping sector been or how far hasn't it managed to stand apart from it? tony: a largely stands apart and it is mostly paper talk as far as the effect on the sector is concerned. the shipping industry is clearly global, and while greek shipowners represent a part of the marketplace, it is truly global and international and permanently external so the

pieces that belong to greece tend to be the nuts and bolts pieces, the operational pieces. guy: how much is that being affected by what jonathan has been talking about which is the inability to move money in and out of the country, the inability to access inc. accounts? tony: thiat is operational and they will have to make alternative arrangements because you have constant cash requirements, constant money in and out on a daily basis. that needs to be addressed and they can do that. if you are rbs, you can run it out of the london office. anna: the great shipping sector is detected by the constitution the amount it can be taxed. is that going to remain the case, you think? tony: this is a bit of a red herring because ships trade internationally and they do not live anywhere.

the income from ships is effectively not taxable. you can introduce a certain taxation on shore because you take part in a certain regime, but that -- the ability to increase that tax exponentially does not exist area the greeks would just move if whatever regime they were -- anna: is that the source of more revenue? tony: the european government is trying to get to the personal account. but like every billionaire, he has a few choices. guy: where would they go? tony: switzerland cyprus. guy: when you look at the risks of those different options, what are they? you are making a big choice. do you want to of stakes -- up

stakes or move out of greece? do you end up in the frying pan into the fire? what are the risks of going to the other countries? tony: the shipowner is the billionaire. operationally, the issue there is that there are much more people involved. if you are a shipowner with 50 ships and in operation with 200 people that is quite difficult to move. so cyprus would be better for them than london, for example. guy: when they talk about the threat of leaving, the barrier is a little higher than maybe -- tony: much higher. the people who might leave are the shipowners themselves. the structure that might leave is the registered ownership of the assets, which this is the

thing that pays the nominal tax, the ship itself. anna: is the shipping differential the same as other parts of the world that rely on shipping? tony: it is parallel. we have something similar through -- in the u.k. there are regimes that parallel with the called tonnage tax increase. anna: thank you very much. johnny foster -- tony foster joining us and jonathan tice on the banking sector. guy: we are going to be joined by our next guest with a look at the european open. inflation data out later. what will the bank of england be doing? we will get a check on the foreign exchange markets as well. europe has been softening since this week deal was announced. what is behind that? anna: i was talking to one of our fx specialists and he said us and as you solve greece

tensions go to the fed. guy: all of that when we come back. "countdown" will continue. ♪

>> it is 70:30 and it looks like we have a deal. we are getting information about a nuclear agreement. >> we have deadlines that were missed. it was taking time to be settled upon. we have china, and it seems like we have some progress.

>> trade is down a little bit. as you can see, we are softening. we have the generic contract we are looking at and we are down at the moment. the price of crude is under pressure. >> let's get to elliott. give us the latest. >> we know that a deal has been done. after these talks, it was midnight on june 30. they have been making progress and inching towards an agreement.

we are waiting for this to be publicly announced and we have word from an official who was involved in the investigation. we are waiting to see what details will be there. we have this from april, which outlined the major elements and it was in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. the have agreed on a number of details. also, according to the newspaper, restrictions on iran they will be able to buy airplanes. they are waiting on the official announcements over what the

agreement entails. >> i want to get a sense of the ripple effect of the deal being done where you are and across the gcc. what does it mean? >> it means that israel and the saudi's will not be happy all stop they are worried that -- happy. they are worried. all of the money will be available to iraq and it will make more mischief in the region. whether supporting the booth these or other parts they will be very unhappy with this and benjamin netanyahu got his

message across. it switches to congress, who have two months to review. netanyahu will unleash the big runs. they will try to persuade him to kill the deal. israel has felt threatened i the iranians. the previous government explicitly threatened extermination. he says he wants to see it. what this will mean is that it is military hardware that will ensure that the countries feel

safer. make no mistake that this is a part of the battle. you can bet that netanyahu and his friends will be doing all they can to persuade the congressman to kill this deal. >> thank you. we have pictures of the talks taking place. >> we have seen the drop in the price of crude. >> it is being affected and the big developers are and oil. you will see the oil giant and it is a take play. you want to keep a close eye on

crude. we are the lowest price and we have been under $52. clearly, oil is trading lower. of course, the question is how long it will take to get out of the ground. they have to double of their productions. we are seeing it coming back. >> we look at european equities and i think they are softening. you would have thought that the

energy stocks will move towards the open. >> greece faces mutiny on the home front. before the rescue can be disbursed, they must agree to the deal. it is good to see you. where does he stand, domestically. he has to get this through parliament. will he do that with the support of his party? >> it has a job in front of him and he was elected on an anti-austerity platform. here he is endorsing a deal the calls for savage spending cuts.

the biggest problem is keeping the body -- his party on his side. the broader question is does the government survive? it is not something people want to take a strong bets on. >> you wonder how much longer the party can hold together. the package was put together and people were worried about the troika. this is a new level. >> that is right. this is a seismic change and it

is everything they said they had opposed. they expect him to hand things over to a government to implement the measures and then campaign again in a year or two years. there are a lot of european creditors who want to see this. they want a buy in from legislators. unless that happens, none of the money changes hands and greece is as much as a mess as it is today. >> the rates are expected to fall. let's bring in jamie murray.

the banks have made it clear that they look further ahead. >> inflation should not be ignored entirely. it is closely related and the bank looking at that looks at reaches -- wages. we see you roshan -- erosion of slack. so, we expect the pressure on inflation soon. when the oil price falls out, we expect it to climate fast. >> it would take a surprise to

do that. it is not that uncommon. the uncertainty is in footwear. >> >> every member last year and they talked about early sales or late sales. it is late for that. >> today we get the inflation data. >> that is the main thing. they outstrip productivity. >> thank you. a look ahead at the data out of the u.k.. >> you're looking at a live shot

of london towards the river. it looks like most of the equity markets are down. we will take a break and continue in a moment.

>> welcome act. we are looking at the stories this morning. >> they reached an agreement to curb the nuclear program. the expected agreement is after a tenet days. it is already oversupplied. >> he faces a mutiny inside of his government to keep the

country inside of the euro. in return for 86 million euros the greek government has until tomorrow. they want to stream land the value added tack and cut pensions all stop >> after a journey across space, the aircraft will be around lunchtime today. 31,000 miles an hour. the dwarf planet will be explored. >> paying for goods and services with devices, it makes britain the first country outside the united states -- >> right, let's talk about the flow this morning and the

european strategy director joining us now. let's talk about the impact it is having and it is down sharply this morning. it looks like it will fall further. walk us through that. >> the oil prices tend to have a negative impact on equity markets. first of all, the impact on earnings is a large component of the equity markets. the ability to go through is limited all stop what we see is the u.s. is a big producer of oil and getting the oil price lower will damage investment in the economy and slow the economy. it has a negative impact on

global growth. >> it is amazing that we have rediscovered that. before that, everybody assumed that americans would go out. >> we have seen the savings that are initially saved and you need to have the oil price down towards $40 a barrel. the volatility that we have seen is people being prepared for that and getting hit with negative investment impact. we see a direct feed through the investment. we'll take the number up and it will take u.s. growth down.

>> which one would i look at? >> you look at japan and china who are the beneficiaries will stop also, europe, to some extent. they will see some of the earnings. >> do you expect fascinating stock stories to emerge here? applying tumor goods into iran? >> the beneficiaries will be the consumption stocks all stop we have an overall preference for retail relative to industrials and we think the issue with the global growth scenario is weakening. it is typically quite negative for equities and it will be the consumer staple stocks that you already have that will be the

beneficiaries and they will suffer quite bad. >> d think this has an impact on the fed policy? >> it slows growth for most of the year. so, we think it pushes and we expect the position further out that will be one of the themes this year and take bond yields down. we have seen a nice coalition of oil prices. at some stage, they will have to . there is ambiguity him towards the rate rise. we can safely say we will not

see a rapid move. >> thank you. we have him staying with us on the program. >> this is all the things we need to know. >> we know a deal has been done and that this represents a major breakthrough. it is routinely referred to as -- in exchange for curtailing the nuclear programs and the sanctions will be lifted. we expect to get the details of the agreement at any moment now and this is a major breakthrough

through 18 days. they have been at odds for the last 12 years or so. it would seem to bring this part of it to resolution. when the deal is out in the open, congress will have tough negotiations with the opponents in the controlled congress. they have done all that they can to kill the steal. >> thank you. >> you talk about global growth slowing. >> not very much, really. there is confidence the numbers

will bounce back and people have been raising the forecast. the lack of global growth negatively impacts and the oil price pushes down. as i said, we will see a further downside risk. the equity market is not prepared for that. we think there will be a minus in double digits. the stocks are off 10%. >> they anticipate this.

it carries that mantle for 50 years. >> that echoes the name. it has tightened the global liquidity. the dollar strength drags down the economy. it starts to lighten the equity position. we do not think this the end of the market for equities. we are talking about it and even if the u.s. market comes out --

>> the global factors are going to dominate. >> thank you very much. >> that is it for us. countdown is wrapping up. on the move is up next. >> will bring you that as we go to the morning.

>> good morning and welcome to on the move. we are moments away from the start of european trading. after going through deadlines, iran and world powers reach a nuclear agreement. after capitulating the prime minister says that he is attempting to stop it. can he keep the party together? the gdp data comes out tomorrow.

of course, the future is here in london. it is not greece. >> iran and the nuclear deal. the biggest rally that we have seen since 2011. we are opening basically flat and a little lower in france. perhaps the euphoria is dimming. it is not all through, and terms of the parliament. there is a probability that greece will leave the eu