alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. u.s. stocks heading to the longest rally since january on prices haverseas eased. treasuries rose and the dollar fell. -- what didstion is you miss? wells fargo kicks off earnings season. we talked to the cfo of the biggest homeland or about his

business and the economy. enter iran -- the nation's back in the game of global commerce. what does it mean for oil prices? joe: and we dig into the hugely asymmetric risk of gaming the fed. alix: we begin with stocks. the s&p continuing the bounceback we saw yesterday. basically, you're looking us talks that are positive on the year. the dow looking at its best four-day gain in about five months. steel.really a risk on kind of a mellow field. mellow, but very widespread. nine of 10 s&p sectors in the green. the only sector that was down was utilities, and that can be expected because they are so defensive. we've seen several days in a row. we saw the vic's absolutely

collapsing over the last few days. alix: if the fed does not necessarily raise rates, utilities are not as attractive. i want to take a deep dive into the bloomberg terminal and look at the story that i was watching all day, and that is the iranian nuclear deal. at allsically is looking the anchors that are right around iran. i'm going to do my best van a white imitation at the board. you can see there are about 10 today,, and as of noon there were three that were registered to iran that had a storage capacity of 60 million barrels. this was really the conversation when he came to iran. not what they are going to produce in a year, but what they can offload in floating storage right now. estimates range from anywhere they had 20 million or perhaps 40 million barrels that could be offloaded the moment sanctions are lifted. yet, iran has a lot of oil

it will eventually be able to theire, but what we see on that map is immediate. 90x: estimates are that william barrels being sort of see is actually condensate. that's not that hard of a commodity. job today not nearly as exciting and dramatic, but we got a lot of bad economic data this morning. really ugly retail sales report. we also got one of my favorite measures, the optimism index. index asks small businesses how they feel about the economy, and usually, there's a lot of nonetheless, what they say is interesting. it's pretty ugly. you see there was a pretty big decline in recent months. surprise, and it is still elevated, still higher than it was, but you've got to

wash that steady decline to see if maybe the economy is starting to creep again. alix: all the dots are adding up. we do want to update you on some breaking news. the greek prime minister has been speaking on greek tv. we want to show you some of the headlines we've been watching where he saying they will gradually lift capital controls, gradually restore the greek banking system. he thinks the final agreement will be ratified in just about one month, and he also said that greek deposits are safeguarded. they are trying to address these concerns. the question is what kind of credibility does he have? joe: lifting capital controls is tough because everyone remembers what just happened. if they do it, they had to do it very slowly so everyone does not just yank their money out again. alix: didn't take a few years for cyprus to end up lifting capital controls? joe: once you make the decision, it's not easy to undo. alix: france and austria did

support greece. giving the divide we've seen between berlin and paris -- joe: it's easy to see austria being more sympathetic than one might expect. we want to get someone to talk about what's going on in the trenches of the u.s. economy from california to new york. the cfo of wells fargo joins us now. you miss.""what'd what would be your one word to describe the u.s. economy right now? don: the one word would be mixed. are still in a very choppy gdp growth rate environment. quarter, while better, still reflects a lot of the uncertainty in people's minds that i think you guys just alluded to in terms of small business optimism. good news for our business is

that we continue to grow loans, to grow our pre-generating activities, taking shares, etc., deposits have been flooding in because people have been hanging on to more cash. we manage to grow our earning assets meaningfully over the course of the last year and in the quarter, but there is not an overwhelming sense of optimism out there. it is a slow grind back. joe: what do you think it is that continues to hold the economy back? it has been years since the crisis. backis holding the economy from your perspective? on:" we did not have a housing-led recovery like we would have expected in most prior recoveries in the post-world war ii era. we've had slower population growth than we used to, and that's a big driver. we have people who have memories of what they just went through, if it was in housing or

elsewhere, when credit was harder to come by and people were hanging on to bigger cash balances. all these things are still pretty fresh. alix: take a look at, say, your loan to deposit ratio. we did see some growth between the first quarter and second quarter. what do you think will be the catalyst to put that money to work? don: loan to deposit ratio does not mean what it used to. we hold onto a lot more cash and investment securities than banks did in the past because of the regulatory changes, which are actually very constructive over the last few years. we did grow our loans to a inord high of $888 billion the quarter. we have never had a loan balance quite that big. what is going to cause it to grow is people -- businesses, mainly -- beginning to use more

to buildedit lines another plant, to buy another business, to expand in a way that requires more bank assets. on the consumer side, most mortgages end up getting sold into the secondary market. we all keep jumbo loans on our books, but it's hard to grow those at the same rate as a shorter-term loan. an auto loans turnover relatively quickly, so even though business has been robust, it does not change the balance is that much, and, of course, credit card loans have been growing very nicely at wells fargo. joe: you described in the economy in one word is mixed, but let's break it down was specifically -- are there certain industries or region's you would say these areas are doing particularly well? : energy, as we just discussed, has been a downer for the last couple of quarters, which has put a real dent in first quarter gdp. commercial real estate has been

doing very, very well. housing is doing a little bit better. autos are doing very well, and will be ales high-tech probably for the industry. regionally, i would say the coast, technology, up the asleep. on the west coast, very strong. commercial real estate, financial services and other things where you are, the new york area, propped up and on fire. government spending and the d.c. area is very strong. florida and south florida in particular has come back in a big way in the last few years. was a coastal, more affluent communities, more technology-oriented activities have been doing very well. alix: on the call, you mentioned wells fargo boosted your securities portfolio, kind of shifting your investment strategy because you do not expect long-term rates are going to rise that much any time soon. why? on: we shifted by about $16

billion. not that big a move, but we've been pretty clear that we feel still like lower for longer at the longer term and of the yield curve, policy rates are going to move up probably before the end of the year or certainly shortly after that, but with what is going on in the world, the pace of growth in developed economies, the attractiveness of the dollar as a reserve currency, and the fact that people keep flooding in whenever u.s. rates take up over a in the threshold 10-year, it is like lower to longer for us. if you travel around the world and talk to investors and i am more emboldened in terms of that view. if we are wrong and long-term rates move up, we can certainly absorb that. we will do better in terms of our earnings profile because we are continually adding more investments. if we do it at a higher rate, then so much the better. thank you very much for joining us. alix: stella ahead, and a story

deal between iran and world -- still ahead. imagine the influx of cash. one bank has put a big guys tag on it. that number after the break. -- a big price tag on it. that number after the break. ♪

betweenhistoric deal iran and world powers is helping iran reenter global commerce. renaissance capital says inflows into a rant stock market could total $1 billion in the first year. that's with a b. joe: i'm excited to talk about a new stock market, something else to cover. alix: as long as companies and investors feel confident congress will really repeal

these restrictions rather than get six-month presidential waivers -- joe: and when do we get the3x gamblersfor the crazed ? i'm excited about that. alix: what does it really mean for consumers and gas prices? morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist joins us now. it's a pleasure. we did not really see oil come off any on the iran deal, but the estimate is perhaps anywhere between five dollars and $10 a barrel if we do see a lot of oil come on. what does that wind up meeting to the u.s.? aren: all markets forward-looking, including oil markets. we cannot extract what has been going on with concerns over greece and china and specifically how iran is affecting oil prices, but i imagine some of the decline we've seen in oil prices was in reaction to anticipation of a deal with iran being announced. coming people saw this

in other words? ellen: it has been well televised, and investors left it that, and they have been betting what it would mean for oil, so oil prices have declined. what it means for consumers is always a good thing -- stable and low oil prices lead to stable and low gasoline prices. that is always good news. at the very least, it makes consumers feel better. alix: what is the lack time? the lag time between oil prices and gasoline retail prices is about two weeks. it flow immediately see through to wholesale oil prices, and in about two weeks, we will see a flow through into lower prices at the pump, retail prices, what you and i pay, what joe would pay if he drove a car, but he has been living in manhattan a long time. bad we got to do pieces of economic data this morning.

i mentioned them earlier pair the small business optimism survey, surprise drop from last month. that was not good news. the other thing that probably much more people paid attention to, a really weak retail sales number. we had hoped to see this media recovery from the early start of the year. miss.ly was this a big last month was revised down. what's going on with the u.s. economy? ellen: we have our own business conditions survey as well, which bobbled lately with the concern over what has been going on in greece and volatility in markets from china. just the uncertainty was higher in the economy. you'll see that bleed through surveys.iment for the i do not want to put too much into the survey showing signs of weakness. let's get into july. let's get into an area where the dust has settled. on the retail sales number, we had a big jump in may. retail sales data tend to mean

revert. i am heartened that the decline was as small as it was, given such a large increase in may. what ultimately economists want to see is a july report that we would consider a clean report because we do not know how much may sales were boosted by an earlier than usual memorial day holiday. we should all be watching that july sales report? ellen: a lot of focus on the july report, but i am heartened by the fact that the payback was less than it could have been in june, in the june retail sales data, so we have real consumer spending tracking 2.9% growth in the second quarter compared to 2.1% growth in the first quarter. that is a higher rate of spending, and anything near 3% like that means your entire economy is going to grow somewhere near 3%. alix: the retail sales number show that restaurant and bar spending was actually down. the are going to go there first

to spend your extra money. what was your take on that specific reading? ellen: out of the entire sales report, that is probably the most important line item. notice that this is a category that raced along with gasoline prices started dropping last year, and throughout the entire winter months, never once did we stop drinking or eating out. and that happens, i'd say the kids are all right because that's the first thing we cut back on and the first thing we do when we feel good is we go out to eat. i am concerned we did have a takedown in the june retail sales data report for that line item, but that was the first in a very long string of a strong month or that category, so it does bear watching. but you look at the labor market, you look at other things going on in the domestic u.s. economy, and this nothing i can sayt my figure two and they

that households should be worried. alix: coming up, a rundown on today's earnings. and how to spot a fake. the real story behind this chart and what made twitter's stock price spike it percent earlier today.

alix: as we mentioned before the break, earlier today, twitter shares surged after bogus reports saying the company had received a takeover offer. which would be huge if

bloomberg news reported it, but we didn't. a site called bloomberg. market did. it looked just like bloomberg. that i should point out corey johnson said that the volume on twitter shares went crazy. now to get to some of our other top headlines at this hour -- the second quarter was a record-setting 14 -- one for csx. earnings per share also a record, topping estimates. the company did miss on the revenue side. yum brands is out with earnings. it seeing stock trade lower after missing on overall revenue and on sales in india and china that lagged estimates. and a victory for uber

right here in new york. in california, the labor commission ruled uber must pay a driver thousands of dollars in expenses. and those are your top headlines. economist with morgan stanley is here to help us break down what you might have missed today. here are the three charts that explain why janet yellen is not raising rates until december. talk us through your first one. laborm to think that markets are not doing too poorly. we are looking really good. what does this chart tell you? >> a sort of wraps up the broad number of labor market indicators that janet yellen always says she needs to see improvement in. spell workers that wish they could work full time but cannot, discouraged workers, the gamut, and it wraps it up into one neat index, and it did weaken in the

later spring months, and a lot was as we digested some of the layoffs in the mining sector. manufacturing sector had a little bit of difficulty because of the rapid rise in the dollar. production was slowed or halted in certain areas, so we had to , and the labor market conditions index declined. now it has moved back into positive territory, so it is growing but growing more slowly, or it means the labor market is improving but improving more slowly. the entire way they have framed monetary policy and their desire to lift rates is based on improvement and at least shows even a slow improvement that it does continue to improve. the you mentioned that dollar was one factor. talk about that -- we have a chart of the dollar. why is that something you are paying close attention to?

>> we cannot have enough on the dollar as a wildcard for the fat, not only on when they will lift rates, but the dollar as a determinant on the pace of rate hikes after they do start raising rates. causes a lot of indigestion to central bankers win their currencies have a rapid appreciation or deep appreciation. what we saw from august through early march was an unbelievably rapid ascent of the u.s. dollar. it can be extremely disruptive. net trade was our biggest drag on growth as a result. if the dollar continues to rise rapidly, as a central banker, i cannot have enough confidence in my outlook for growth to raise rates today. have said theyrs has the policy adjustment been complete, so the bulk of the rise was policy adjustment leading up to the rate hike, so we will see. have thed can

confidence. takes off, it will lead to too much uncertainty. and the last part really has to do with the savings rate. this.o us about >> starting with the april meeting of the federal open market committee, they spent a good deal of time talking about why the consumer is not spending, and what we found is that there is actually a lag time between the time gas prices bottom, which they did in january, and the time that households start spending that savings, because they have to be convinced that gas prices -- not only they see they have fallen but they have to be convinced they will stay low, and it's about a six-month lag, so we think consumers have started to pick up spending. we have seen that, as i mentioned, second court are spending tracking. we think consumers are spending more. the fed will need to see more data. they will need to see that july retail sales report that we will all be watching closely.

july, july, july. that will tell them if consumers are going to continue to bring that personal savings rate down and spend more. alix: thank you so much. great to have you for the day. joe: we'll be right back. ♪

>> do not miss the monetary report. >> we have a big vote in greece tomorrow. they have got to vote. >> >> from our studios in new york

city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: we have an editor and blogger for the atlantic magazine. he discusses racism in the u.s. it sparked a national debate his latest book is called "between the world and me." i'm pleased to have him at this table for the first time. welcome. biographyke to talk