tv On the Move Bloomberg July 17, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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those are the things i will be talking about the next few minutes. futures dead flat dax futures push higher. that is on a seven-day winning streak. that is almost 10% over the last seven trading days alone. when you cut out the noise coming from greece does look of the german equity market it is been quite a performance. i want the start of the bond markets. equity markets were driving higher despite the noise and the action coming from greece. it matters politically, but it is not matter to the bond market. german yield is low. like ways on the periphery, they had southbound by two basis points. that spread has got really narrow approach in the 100 basis point mark. it was 160 points a couple days
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ago. bond spreads really dissipating. one story to the whole week has been german strength. euro sterling has been on a four-day losing streak. down by about .33%. mark carney talking about a rate hike. the first rate hike in august the next year. that is still dovish. mark carney is setting up that debate. i will get closer to the rate hike. elsewhere euro-dollar is in the trade to look at. 882, dead flat. that sets us up, let's get straight to your equity market open. the futures are pretty much dead flat.
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paris went higher by about .25%. call it eight in the first couple of minutes of trading. we are dead on a 10% rally over the last eight days. things get interesting in the european market. let's give the asian market with you von -- yvonne. 3 yvonne: a pretty good note year for asian stocks. volatility has eased a bit. now greece seems to be a little bit less of a concern. we are seeing southeast asia markets closed today on holiday. chinese stocks rising the most than a week. erasing all the losses we saw this week, what a difference a week makes. we just got these headlines, the
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chinese securities headlines core says they have money on tap to support stocks. we talk about billions of dollars. very similar to how much was wiped out in value during that stock rout last week. the government still not done yet in terms of coming to the rescue. we still have 1/5 of the market to resume trading. we did see quite a bit of gains in tact. china rally -- tech. china rallied quite a bit. the unprecedented measures seem to be working at least for now. there is a noticeable change in sentiment with these additional funding possibly providing more liquidity support to purchase stocks. according to sources, securities of talking about if the news is valid, it could be enough to
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call me nervous investors. it may not be enough to see a huge aggressive surgeon stock prices. still some cautious notes for some of the big money managers. 4000 has always been the line in the sand in terms of a stabilization of signal. pretty close to that. a weakness in the japanese yen we are pretty close away from that 13 year high that we saw at the start of june. jonathan: great work. the japanese yen is in focus in asia. one thing we're talking about is greece. german lawmakers are in dropping the summer holiday to have their say on greeks proposed aid package. let's get more with our bloomberg team.
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caroline hyde is in athens. yonu -- tony i want to start with you. officials and lawmakers disagree with the agreement then vote for it anyway. it goes a part of the german parliament today some boasting his concerns over the deal. does that mean he will vote yes anyway? tony: i suspect he will. the preliminaries have been very torturous and acrimonious. there has been a lot of rhetoric. when it comes down to it, angela merkel has rallied her troops her caucus, partly behind the notion if you like germany cannot bring down the eurozone. that doesn't mean that it is not fraught. she went before her caucus for hours at the end they had a test
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vote. and so 48 of the lawmakers would vote against the package. jonathan: caroline coming to bring you into the conversation the next hurdle for greece we got over a smaller one yesterday. we haven't for the cleared it the ecb, when will the greek banks open? caroline: they did extend the bank holiday through until sunday. begging the question -- will monday be the day? christine lagarde, the leader of the imf saying she is thinking it will open on monday. it was still only be able to get 60 euros out of your back account if you are living here in athens. when speaking to the business holders, a few roads away the
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healthful shops, they will not get any more customers. at the jewelry store for three weeks he has had no business. she is telling me i can't afford to have a job that i want because i would not be able to afford to feed the child. these are the words and terrible stories we are hearing in the street. many have been wondering what about that vote late on wednesday night. what about these hikes that everyone is now worried about. are they coming into action? i just got my hotel bill. i got the food and beverage bill. 23% tax now not 13%. they are already implement a some of these changes. inquiry on the street is i can't get any more cash out of the bank. what about these tax rises? it is turning up people even more. jonathan: talk to me about the worries of prime minister alexis tsipras we talked the political separation in berlin but to be
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fragmentation and greece. within the greek government, how does he handled the dissent within his own party? caroline: rumors have been swirling. would we see a reshuffle of his cabinet? he has more than a quarter of his own party dissent against the bailout reforms. that was a few days ago, what then of the energy minister? of the defense minister? of the finance minister? already the finance minister deputy has resigned. what about the other three? some firings are on the table being reported by the germans. we could see heads roll in terms of his cabinet members. eventually they will longer be on the cabinet. sip alexis imris -- alexis
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tsipras is saying he will continue to act as a minority government. the question now is will be see elections come autumn? jonathan: great work. the bloomberg team joining us now for some political analysis. we're joined by stephen isaacs chairman of the investment committee. i want to get knee-deep in the politics first. the greek politicians voting for it even the lid of the they agree with it. i go to a quote everybody knows greece is bankrupt but no one wants blood on their hands for chucking them out of the eurozone. there's that sum up what is going on? >> i think so. there were so many people grudgingly accepting it.
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this is a program that will have numerous reviews and cash releases overtime. that will be changes happening. this same problem and comes back. you have these people asked again do you want to release the cash? or force them out of the euro. it is clearly just a temporary fix. jonathan: i'm looking at an eight-day winning streak on the dax in germany at income percent. you missed out on that if you were to focus on greece. i go back to my quote that says i would love to be here in a couple years my fear is that i will be in a couple of months. is that the way you feel? that never since will be injected into the market once more? stephen: i think we have to follow the policies. i think all the politicians indeed central bankers is to
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disown the deal. everyone hates the deal. everybody knows it will not work. when it does blow up, that is one scenario. i think more in the next of political extremism is my concern. we have had coups in the past. when the greek people were consulted and the parliamentary elections are just a couple years ago, it were pretty and fabric. they did not want this deal. is a cool possibility -- coups a possibility? they will pass it because they agree that it was the band-aid at this moment in time. jonathan: you live and breathe the politics. talk to me about the politics and how immediate the consequences could be. when you look at the situation to the last five days they have ripped up the script on almost everything.
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they have not done that over the last five years. then bring the u.k. into it, even though it was promised five years ago this would not happen. talk to me but consequences. raoul: there are enormous consequences. it doesn't seem like they have paid any political prices. greek politics is very strange. at some point, he has to pay a price. how long can he go on making these promises? i think of we have new, we will have to see what happens. in terms of the other countries it is a complete unwillingness to follow through on these kinds of promises. you look at germany, finland, the baltics, it will be incredibly difficult because they don't trust the other companies. really, the further integration
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is looking incredibly challenging. that suggests we will be stuck in this middle way where we have huge unemployment and no real tools to do with the economic problems. you are stuck in this long-term malaise. you're pushing one thing down and it is popping out somewhere else. it is a complete mess. jonathan: to build on this because spreads are tight no one seems to be talking about what is happening in the rest of europe. also, there is a willingness to integrate. also, it is allowed the arrival of those who can come through because britain and spain still stay tight. that is ironic. the message coming from the weekend was this is a huge slap in the face for the danes. is that true? stephen: the ecb is planning to
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keep the spreads tight. but they cannot stop the politics of it. i think in terms of political fallout across europe, some get hurt. the people who are supporting that are they really going to be that bothered? that is greece, we are spain, we 12% of the euros an economy. we have much more leverage. it will be difficult. other issues could arise. we can change the type of euro zone we are in. they want to make it more with this: political union. is there any hope of that now? all the reforms, that is looking very difficult. you have opposition parties who are already anti-euro. they want to jump on this and say there is no hope of change the only hope of change behalf is to leave. across the political spectrum you have a boost to the anti-euro force. this plays into antidemocratic
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at austerity, all of those lines. it is a free pass. she was a germany is running the show, these countries have no democratic will the euro is of succeeding -- is succeeding our economy -- strangling our economy. jonathan: your world is running money. other than the equity market in the dax search and things look pretty. i look at the euro sinking. how long does it stay that way? stephen: this is a tightening a policy. that is the german theory that economics has to adjust when you have a next journal shock. the greeks have been multiple external shocks. they have to adjust their wage rates, their pension rates.
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that is effectively a new policy. tjer -- there was a new hope that proper debt forgiveness would be to a further debasement in the euro zone. it has not happened. i see this is rather negative for the equity market. we had a knee-jerk reaction, and if you look across the atlantic. the s&p has been in a range/ this is a tightening of euros on policy. jonathan: gentlemen, thank you very much. to open monday for basic services. can't find basic services yet but i will give that a go in a couple of minutes. thank you very much. stephen isaacs will stay with us. coming up on the show, propping up stocks.
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bailout. the eu authorized a 7 billion euro loan. the ecb extended emergency aid. shares in google jumped by more than 10% that is after second-quarter results beat projections. the company's new cfo will focus on reining in spending. a chinese agency will have funding available to support stocks. people closer to have about 3 trillion yuan on tap. the funding will be used to support brokerages. for more on that story, let's get to richard frost. 19% of total listings are still frozen. what is the significance of the
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yuan? richard: it is 480 billion u.s. dollars. in underscores the desire of the chinese government to make sure this market is well supported. we know for trillion dollars dwarfing the amount, this is a huge a man of liquidity. we know from another newspaper that banks who committed to trillion you want to this fund -- yuan to this fund. more than 1400 companies since it was suspended towards the end of last week. about 900 of those have resumed trading. it was a bit of a mixed week. we had some very sharp down days. the news today certainly seem to help provide the market. we ended up for the week around
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2%. i think the government will be happy with that. at one stage we were down 5%. don't forget there is still 90% of the market suspended and trhehe amount that is resuming is a trickle at this time. jonathan: we were having a debate whether the rout that started in mid-june would show up in the gdp figures. i am working out what the year-to-date gain was. we were up 32% at the end of q2. have you crunched the numbers and work of how much that stock market surge actually added to gdp? richard: we know in the second quarter, it is about .5%.
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huge contribution to the financial sector. you imagine the amount of margin lending that brokerages doing. they have been reporting huge increases. that contribution has been massively known in the property sector sent agriculture. some parts of the economy was lagging behind. again, this is why the government is so keen for this rally to resume. because of it's central importance to how the economy grows. it seems to be a very round number. it is what the government would like to see the whole year. that is their target. they do officially meet their target. we know that is unlikely they
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would meet it at the start market continues to fall. jonathan: richard frost in hong kong, as always a pleasure to have you on the show. let's bring back and stephen isaacs. stephen, when i look at the china gdp running at 7% in line with the government's target, when adequate the numbers, i see a different story. a different picture of what is happening. which story do i follow? the gdp, or the corporate's? stephen: the question is why are the japanese authorities doing this? why are they in a sense of complete panic? it shows up in the gdp figures that they want to use. a strong financial sector to bolster what is otherwise a faltering economy. as you said, look at chinese
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exports. they're going to the roof. the reason they are moving heaven and earth to support the market is because they are in a state of panic. they realized this is the great fall of china. this is but it harder than it looks like. jonathan: you think this is a hard landing? stephen: who knows what the figures are. i don't trust them. i think the property sector is really in complete disarray. that is when things get really nasty. when that stores up, which it has done completely, you have serious problems. we are concerned about this. jonathan: how does the commodity market fit into this? in isolation that is good news.
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the question is is it down there because of china? stephen: it is a negative feedback loop is what you are talking about. this is a deflationary global force that is destabilizing everybody but especially companies that rely on exports. they are exporting that around the world. they are chasing their tails to the volumes to be maintained. it is a very big concern. jonathan: final question, in that environment exporting deflation is set to get worse. can the fed really think about hiking? stephen: i don't think they will hike. i think they are so walking a tightrope and still with new ones is trying to talk lower rates. i think the fed will blank. jonathan: stephen isaacs things the fed will blank. after the break, we are back.
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jonathan: welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's get you up to speed and equity markets. just pulling back in touch with them by 11 points. the dax is clinging onto an eight straight day of gains. having got about 10% up over the past 10 days. switch of the board and check of the bond market. this is been a remarkable move. we would looking at a spread between german 10 year yields of 160 basis points. what a move lobo we are seeing tight. down by two basis points.
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there we are, euro selling, that is the cross to watch. we stay there, a stronger pound the story in the fx market. it is been a week of central-bank speak. sterling has been strengthening as mark carney's at the end of record low rates is insight. yesterday we heard from mark carney and janet yellen and mario draghi. mark carney: it would not seem unreasonable to me to expect once monetary policy normalization begins interest rates would proceed slowly and rise to a level that is about half as high as historic averages. in my view, the decision to
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start such a process will come into sharper relief around the turn of this year. janet yellen: they are anticipating it being appropriate to begin tightening policy with inflation our objective. what we have said we want to have reasonable confidence before we tighten the inflation. mario draghi: recent developments, which reflect greater uncertainty, have not changed the assessment of a broadening of the euro area's economic recovery. it gradually increases the rates over the coming years. jonathan:three huge central banking names. i think it is safe to say two of them don't want minor druggies -- mario draghi's problems.
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governor mark carney's comments were a bit of a surprise. very very dovish market. was that the objective? >> he is very good at managing expectations. he was a one thing if he feels the market is getting ahead of itself then will reverse it of it goes too far. this is part of his style. he gave three criteria don't push him over the edge one must general economic conditions, one was wage growth the third one was the exchange rate. jonathan: a seven-year high? a seven-year low rather it could completely a race that seven-year rally. does he tolerate that? stephen: he did bring it in for
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a reason, he is concerned about that. some data has shown a slight loss of momentum. there is an argument to say that the exports are hurting from this very strong pound. i think that is part of the mix now. if sterling is at 145 or 150 with the raise rates? i don't think he will. i think you will use that as another excuse to delay things. jonathan: when using the fed will blink, you say he will blink as well? stephen: they were all talking about their believe that longer-term inflation will start to take back up again. if we're right about commodity prices and china being a new problem then inflation will stay. we are already at 0% in the u.k. can a central bank reais --
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raise rates when inflation current inflation, is so low? jonathan: we talked about this being called the loosest tightening in history is guys keep saying gradual limited. can they maintain that pledge once they start to tighten? do you think they can talk that up, but will never get off the base anyway. stepy stephen -- stephen: we are in a low growth road. it is coming to be one of the longest in the postwar era. that is before they've ever tightened. jonathan: when you see the six-year recovery in the united states, there3 is an argument
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that is the reason you have to get a record low interest rates. you missed the recovery. what have you got left? stephen: the other argument is that you never pressed the asset bubble. we of rampaging asset prices. the fed touched on this this week that they are concerned about surging prices. yes, you are right, they never got off the tightening it all. they could in the last year. now they are in a bind. jonathan: we shall be assessing over the central banks tiny little hikes, earnings are coming through. when i look at the s&p 500. 52 have quite a few beats in their/ the numbers i'm looking at our 73% of earnings so far have beaten estimates.
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you expect that to turn lower? stephen: the market hand in glove is very good at massaging these forecasts. in a way, where the you beat in earnings is a little bit pointless. what we are focused on is the direction of earnings. the direction of earnings is at best flat. in reality negative. how can that be good for the stock market? one is earnings growth, two is the discount, and three is multiples. we rely of a third one. in a continuing low interest rate environment, i'm afraid it is subscribed to dividends are a form of valuable income. dividends are not growing in a longer. jonathan: where do stephen
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isaacs put his money? stephen: very cautiously, but mainly in fixed incomes. they are often things like intellectual property, music loyalties, those are the things which are less correlated to the financial markets. jonathan: stephen isaacs, thank you very much. still to come, we will talk earnings. google, the shares soar in after-hours. they deliver a beat. we talk about that, and alloy to makes bank. the ceo of goldman sachs joins the billionaires club. ♪
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jonathan: looking back to bloomberg tv. but he jumped to speed. the 5100 just off the lows but still in the red. the dax was on an eight-day winning streak. we are in the red, down by a 10th of 1%. after a rally of almost 10%. euro sterling is trading lower for the last five days. down and other .2%. mark carney resets expectations
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of an interest rate hike. mark carney may be objective to exercise market expectations. lower in germany and italy as well. brent up .4%. the catalyst for that this week is the deal with iran and the prospect of more crude being brought into a market. let's gige up to speed on the top stories. angela merkel will seek approval to begin talks over a new greek bailout. voting begins in berlin at one -- 1:00 local time. the ecb extended emergency aid to greek banks. we spoke to the bank president of the european commission.
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valdis: if we talk about debt it must be said that euro zone countries had provided to greece is not weighing on the economy. it is a grace. until 2023. it means that this is not really now waiting on the greek economy. jonathan: that is the situation in greece. a chinese agency is said to have funding available. people say they have 3 trillion yuen on tap. the funding will be used to fund brokerages. ebay will spin off its payment unit paypal. paypal will begin trading on
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monday. the plan was announced last year. let's get to one of our top corporate stories, google shares rallying after the tech companies earnings topped estimates.the new cfo talked about reining in spending. rodrigo, there have been concerns as the executives and google pursued some pretty big blue sky thinking. how did the company performance at front? rodrigo: it is interesting you point that out. i think it was the key metric investors were looking at. it was operating expenses, which were up. that would indicate that they're spending too much. but the growth of that expense is slower than it used to be. last quarter to the 20%. now it is 13%.
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it means they're slowing down on their spending. jonathan: the company also highlights improvement in youtube. is that trend likely to continue? rodrigo: it seems to be the case. they don't break it down into much detail. in a conference call the cfo said the advertising clicks and engagement by reviewers was the highest in two years. they seem to be doing something. viewing videos on mobile is growing. jonathan: joining us out of madrid. whatever it is, the investors like what they hear. the stock is up 16.5%. the u.s. trading session starts. and other to watch is bankers welcoming a new billionaire to the club.
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the bank stock has doubled over the last three years. his net worth has surged. devon,there are a couple of superich ceo bankers. people in of his story, this is incredible. he grew up the son of a postal worker. talk to me about the man and how he is accumulated his wealth. devon: "very humble beginnings. he joined them a long time ago. he was a partner before the company went public. he made up really well when the company went public. that is part of the reason he became a billionaire. he is paid well, but he also has this essay. -- nest egg. jonathan: on paper, things are
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very similar. the back story is very different. devon: both of them are working-class guys who really work their way to the top. they both came about at the liquidity event. his came from the ipo. that is a different story, he has a fighting story, he came through jpmorgan. but he is a really company men. jonathan: we can track the path accumulation of wealth quite clearly. getting ousted from a company can be quite profitable. donald trump, when we talk about wealth in donald trump, no one
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seems to know how much this guy is worth. then we see these monster numbers coming up. how much is he worth? devon: that is a great question. it is an example of how wealth tallying is a difficult exercise. bloomberg tech is worth over $2 billion. $10 billion? trump is very bullish on trump. the truth of it, it is really anybody's guess. jonathan: i am borrowing that line. that's the situation with the billionaires. for those that have cash in this market, the 5100 down by .2%. the dax would've made you some money over the last seven days but it is breaking that winning streak now. switch of the boards euro sterling down again today.
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>> interest rate would perceive slowly but is about half as high as historic averages. in my view the decision as to when to start to the process will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year. jonathan: it has been a busy week for markets. let's wrap up. the last five trading days the euro hitting its lowest against the sterling since 2007. mark carney's the rate debate on fire. then to china, less to the chinese government took extraordinary measures to halt inequity crash. we track the slow thawing of the frozen markets.
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90% are halted. next is -- 19% are halted. next is crude. it will eventually relieve iran of sanctions. the prospect of new crude is pushing a lower. other moves, that is almost it from the moves. up next is manus cranny. germany storming ahead, quite a run despite the mass that is the greek economy. manus: everything is maintained in greece itself is not the dragon european growth. the bigger risk is china. and of the headline this morning the chinese are in a panic. i like the question of it it is a panic reaction. would you still not fully open?
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ultimately, in regards to not just that he is upping liquidity, that was a relief. he received greece was staying in the euro. it is going back to basics. the ecb is fully committed to quantitative easing. jonathan: as far as greece's concert, a vote in the german parliament. it is the same situation in greece. a lot of people don't really agree with the bailout. they have doubts over the sustainability of what is been agreed upon. what are your thoughts on the topic? manus: tawdry affair. those of the words i have used on this agree to deal. it is political expediency at its dirtiest. rather than admitting that
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perhaps there was some fundamental flaws in the european project. we are going to -- we had the mayor of london. boris is here, and he will talk about cross rail 2. east to west is nearly finished. we will hear what boris thinks about that. we have a little bit corporate. we have hans vesperb as well. how are you going to battle away a lawsuit? that is very unfair. what is he prepared to give up? they have teeth, these days.
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jonathan: the highbrow dinners that you attend it will not talk about that. they might talk about mark carney's comments. don't play it down. it feels like a repeat of 2014. it gets exciting in the summer doesn't it? manus: this is the way that it is. you will have to have rates higher. they have gone from august to may, i think the point is it has been a long time since they raised rates. i think it is ironic, cynical funny, no one has a clue where it is going to go. jonathan: he reset expectations maybe that was the point. that is it for me. only one thing to watch german
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manus: germany gets set to vote. lawmakers will have their say on greece's next bailout today. the end is near. governor mark carney says that time for a rate hike will become clearer before 2016. and china has billions on tap. an agency fund is set up to be available to support brokers and purchase stocks, chinese equities jumped the most in a week.
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