tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 17, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
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alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. joe: i am joe weisenthal. alix: you are looking at stocks closing now. the nasdaq at a record high, nine out of 10 of the sectors lower, not really keeping track with the nasdaq. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?". is the housing market getting its mojo back? new home construction is at second highest level.
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alix: one of biggest oil companies shifts course in the gulf of mexico. what that move means. joe: china's government unleashes half a trillion dollars to bolster the stock market. alix: beginning with the markets. today was about tech. nasdaq at a record level, led by google and tech shares. the s&p, energy tanking. joe: i think you are underselling the google thing. a jaw-dropping day for google. alix: market cap is $465 billion, trailing apple by $280 billion. huge move, but really apple the winner. joe: right, apple gigantic. alix: a deep dive to look at who
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cares about greece. china. look at this. china fx reserves falling over the last quarter. at the same time, china's holding of u.s. treasuries increasing by $47 billion. this looks like a strategic asset allocation into u.s. treasuries at the expense of euro denominated assets. buy in u.s., sell in euro. joe: they didn't do themselves in any favors trying to get people to hold euros. a chart of gold going back to 2000. this is the chart --
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china having a market meltdown. the fed delayed on when it will raise rates. it's at its lowest level in years, so ugly, so sad. alix: three words here, real interest rates. negative, down 1.8%, nominal rates minus inflation still lower, and that is the fundamental reason why you want to own gold. gold should be at $900.
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before the financial crisis, that is where we were. china bought over 600 tons over the last six years. joe: less than brokers expected. data came in less than expected. that driver not living up. alix: we want to bring in our guest. we are talking about housing. michelle meyer joining us. housing data killing it. better gdp. thanks for being here. >> thank you. joe: how about those strong numbers? permits at highest levels since crisis.
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what do you attribute strong results to? >> we have seen a notable pickup in housing activity. it's not just housing starts and permits. mortgage purchase applications have picked up. the past few months favorable for housing. alix: the multifamily boom stood out to me. that is because of renters. if you take a look at the cpi number, rent prices grind higher. increased 3.5% year on year. at what point does this level out? >> that is an important point.
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when you look at the guts, a lot is driven by multifamily apartment construction. that makes sense. we still have a broken aspect of the housing market, credit is tight. not everybody wants to be a homeowner now. big pickup in rental demand. hence inflation in rental market. joe: the american dream, homeownership is dead. recently, there is a movement. has there been a secular shift? >> home ownership is not dead in terms of an aspiration. we're just achieving it at a later stage in life. in the past, your starter home is now a starter rental. you will rent. more flexibility, mobility, less financial commitment. the desire for home ownership is as high as ever.
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alix: it's more cyclical than structural? >> part of it is people can't access home ownership type credit, but i think there is a secular component. people are achieving it later. that could be a function of later marriage, you have children later, the fact that home prices don't increase indefinitely. joe: what about the housing deficit? so many years of depression. how many homes do we need to catch up? >> that's a good way of thinking about it, where has demand been
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trending. the first principle for housing supplies should be a function of population growth. how many people are forming households, demolition, and second home sales. it's based off that type of estimate. one and a half million as normalized, but we are running at 1.1 million. you had a broken market, but as we have the population growth, housing prices will recover. you will have to build to accommodate the increase in population. alix: another area where people are spending money is cars. auto sales and home sales track each other, but they have diverged. why? what does that say to you? >> that is a good way of summarizing it.
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auto sales have been strong, but home sales have been less. it speaks to the broken credit mechanism for the mortgage market, but open credit market for automobiles. you can get financing easily for autos, but not for mortgages. joe: why is that? >> that is a long conversation. how much time do we have? i'll give you 60 seconds. the heart of the crisis was in the mortgage market. that is where we have to reform. the new rules of the game are not out yet. joe: thank you for joining us. alix: still ahead, german chancellor angela merkel feeling the heat from her party as a surprising number vote against her. those numbers after the break. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: german party members said they would break ranks and vote against angela merkel. joe: let's get to the headlines. greece getting a different bailout. france sending planes to fight fires. the blaze forced evacuation of villages. 200 people trapped. high winds fanned the flames. alix: ludicrous mode for tesla, zero to 60 in 2.8 seconds. ludicrous speed is a reference to the movie "space balls". joe: three tank cars leak oil, homes evacuated, no injuries. alix: we hear a lot about oil trains derailing. it's important because calls for
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retrofitting tankers could cost up to $2 million, and new designs more expensive, adding $.40 to a barrel of crude oil. it's a problem. it's a lot of money. joe: we've seen a lot of these stories, major problems. alix: something you may have missed. and new designs more expensive, adding $.40 to a barrel of crude oil. it's a problem. it's a lot of money. joe: we've seen a lot of these stories, major problems. alix: something you may have missed.
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conoco phillips. take a look at this today chart. it had a big decline yesterday due to the its termination of a deepwater drilling contract in the gulf of mexico. they are paying $400 million to terminate. they would rather pay $400 million than pay for the cost of exploring and producing oil from that deepwater in the gulf of mexico. that is a staggering number for me. joe: something to watch for as earnings seasons come around? alix: in deepwater, one well is $350 million plus, and that kind of money is hard to bring in right now. especially when you look at the
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forward curve of oil, relatively weak. joe: this is a huge commitment ahead. another story people may have missed is the british pound. we talked about the euro and dollar last year, even the new zealand dollar. here is a chart of the euro against the british pound. the euro is falling sharply. they had a really strong wage growth number. that's the kind of number that will get a central bank nervous. wage growth is the kind of thing that causes a central bank to think about hiking. bank of england, mark carney, hinted that maybe the first rate hike will come sooner than the
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market expects. that is rocket fuel for currency. in 2014, he also talked about that and gave us a warning, and then that fizzled out. yes, some bullish factors for the pound, but we have been down this road before. people expecting a rate hike. we will see what happens. alix: everyone is always talking about the dollar and janet yellen. the bank of england has half a percent as their target. joe: there is a perception of an asset bubble for london real estate prices. if you think central bankers here are worried about deflating bubbles, there's even more anxiety in london. alix: good stuff. coming up, guess who added $4 billion each to their net worth in one day? it's not me or joe, but we will tell you after the break. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. one joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" joe: sergei brin and larry page, their fortunes gain after shares surge 15% today. net worth of 20% on the year. gigantic move. alix: it is the paper profit. joe: i would take it. alix: china is delivering another shot to its equity markets. china securities finance corp. is able to access $483 billion that includes central bank and commercial lenders. that is the latest as the government is trying to stop a selloff that caused the market to lose more than one third of its value.
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look at that time line in just one month. joining us is catherine, a strategist. when you see that, what do you think? >> i think it is an enormous contradiction. this is a short-term play to prop up the stock. they should liberalize market policy, so an enormous contradiction. why? to maintain credibility and belief. this is a regime trying to liberalize itself. it needs the backing of its own people. secondly, a deceleration, so you
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have equity markets increasing. that makes people feel wealthier and improves consumption. what is most important here is they have not reached the target. and dropped 38% in the past month or so. we are still 500 points from the target. there is more to come. this particular initiative is a direct purchases of equities and mutual funds. joe: we had former ubs economist george magnus on. let's take a listen. >> we are going back to where we came from. the shanghai composite is going down to 2500-2800, but i don't really have a strong sense as to whether that will happen next week, next month, or the next half year or so. joe: how does that matchup with where you see the market? >> the government fostered this bubble.
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they pushed the chinese to get into the equity market. they need to save face. if the chinese prop up the market while accelerating this liberalization of financial and economic reform, then they could be ok. we have seen a clear floor, and my contention is that the policy initiative is correct in the sense that it is moving away from capital spending and infrastructure spending towards harnessing the powerful dynamic in china, which is consumption and the migration of people to the cities, who are investing, consuming, spending. joe: we have this story on bloomberg today that blew my mind about online peer-to-peer lenders. they offer people the chance to loan money to other people. how confident are you that this is not going to keep rippling and crashing down? >> we were talking to institutional clients saying let
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it wash out. where you want to be positioned to play this volatile story is in the consumption exposed etf's. investment vehicles with a bigger exposure to the consumption, retail, to harnessing that component rather than the bigger funds focused on the banking system. alix: we talk a lot about china, greece, what is the crisis we are missing? >> it will not be the fed. we have seen this coming. i'm not expecting a "taper i'm not expecting a "taper tantrum". you are a big oil expert. if oil goes down, it has a deflationary force on u.s.
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inflation, which could be a liquidity trap. what we are not talking about is the dynamic of the entitlement system. we still have not resolve that. in june, the cbo came out with a long-term budget outlook for the u.s., and it is not pretty. that is where we need to focus. to come to a conclusion with our spending. joe: how do you see that manifesting itself? >> it is a long-term thing. you have the crowding out effect. you have the fact that once entitlement spending consumes the majority or all of revenues, then the additional funding has to be financed. your debt goes up. the market -- even though we are the safest, most liquid, bond market in the world, it requires a higher premium because the economy looks worse. that is how i would see this developing.
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alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix: we showed you a quote that picked apart paul krugman's comment. joe: in an interview, he said that krugman is a prominent economist who won a prize for his trade theory, but has no idea about the architecture and foundation of the eu. all 19 members of the eurozone must come to an agreement. it appears mr. krugman is unaware of that. i'm sure paul krugman gets that. i think he was being unfair there. that is a clever, pointing out his expertise and trade economy.
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alix: absolutely. fair point. don't miss this on monday. halliburton earnings coming out. this is an oil services company in the united states worth about $34 billion. we are looking at sales that could decline by 28%. they make their money in the united states, and are exposed to shale. joe: it is a nice clean read on the current state of the oil market. alix: if market pressure hasn't abated, i'm excited. joe: greek banks reopening. that will be interesting. there aren't many examples of banks being closed this long and then reopening. we don't know how that will be. people get nervous, want to pull their money out. that will be an interesting test of how the use of capital controls work.
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>> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." story this week after months of negotiations, the nuclear deal now heads to a review.kill for -- capitol hill for a review. sen.ng me now, senator tim kaine:, member of the committee and was one of the first call for congressional review of any deal. welcome. thanks for joining us.
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