america does better than good cutting costs awaiting the return of true animal spirits. apple does not care that the watches a fail. they are making billions on your next iphone. good morning, everyone, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it's a grease free day? brendan: i would like to announce that i will buy the "financial times." i have $157 and i've got some backers and some ideas of what they can do. i am excited. tom: it is not a pink paper, it's salmon colored. vonnie: it's like "economist." brendan: it may be up for sale. tom: we will have much more on that but let's get to our top headlines --

vonnie: the bloomberg commodity index is lower than it was during the hanging meltdown. new york oil is hovering around the $50 per barrel mark which is the lowest it's been since april with speculation the global oil glut is not going away. the greek exit from the euro may be back on the table next year. almost 0.75 percent of the euro says they will be out of the euro in 2016. the bailout package should be too small. a newspaper and i will his race for the residential nomination. the des moines register calls him names. he commented on immigrants and make comments about john mccain. he has surged into the lead for the republican nomination.

a new poll shows he is the favorite of 24% of republicans and those leaning that way. nike has given ceo mark parker a stock or that is 10 times higher than what usually gets. he has restricted stock with a target of $30 million but he gets it if he stays with nike another five years. the cofounder has endorsed parker to succeed him as chairman next year when he retires. american zach johnson is the winner of the british open championship. he made long putts to win the payoff which gave him his second victory in a major and put in and to jordan spieth's winning four majors. he was one shot away. tom: a little distraction at the office yesterday. there were a few televisions on

the screen. vonnie: it's nice when greenwich mean time is five hours ahead. brendan: we took a hit to productivity yesterday. tom: let me do a data check. it's the quite as they we have seen in weeks but we've got smart conversation for you for 4 hours. on to the next screen -- the dow is elevated with the vix going to 12.25. right into the commodities story -- here we are pre-china the bloomberg commodity index. the lehman financial crisis, we are all going to die -- we come back down and this is the nominal level getting you back

to somewhere two decades back. this is a first and second derivative move. brendan: it's the history of the super cycle. we are talking about it's amazing that this whole chart is impossible to talk about commodities without talking about china. tom: let's go over to london with the london metals index back to 1877. john ferro has been looking at that index. how bad is the commodity carnage with the losses being taken or is it just the back-and-forth and forth with people on different sides of the trade? john": the trend is clear that it is lower and nothing that happened overnight. it's been 12 months. this has been going on for a while and it just picks up and

velocity over the last couple of days. tom: it's not just a headline commodity like iron ore, it's across all of the commodities. i think of michael lewis at deutsche bank among others in london. what is the why for the across-the-board commodity implosion? john: you can take your pick on what to blame -- china, the fallen demand, the prospect of a rate hike later this year. you have to talk about the supplied side dynamics. if we take oil, despite a plunging rig count and the big slashes and cuts to the oil majors, total production in the u.s. is still right appear. total production in saudi arabia is at a record high and opec are consistently outstripping their own targets. the surprise dynamics, oversupply -- fundamentals to future supplier taking a big hit but you don't

see that in total production and you don't see that in the numbers in my screen. brendan: let's get to the supply side and materials in iron. there was a note yesterday from goldman sachs in sydney saying the future of iron ore is the australians cannot stop producing or shipping. it's entirely supply-side driven in iron ore. did that note make a difference in london? john: i don't think it moved the dial much. when we talk about australia and brazil, let's talk about the companies and the people making the decision to pump this stuff out of the ground. the likes of bhp and tinto rio want to maintain market share despite falling prices. that's the real story, companies on the ground making decisions that don't make sense to a lot of people. they continue to take the stuff out of the ground and large quantities this -- despite the falling price.

tom: thank you so much. these are the microeconomics of the moment. oil production is straight up. our focus is on earnings. apple is out after the hell and stephen whiting -- after the bell and's even whiting is leading in commodities. i look at this and let me ask you the first mining question -- is it one big value trap? across the citigroup research, is there an opportunity in mining or do you have to wait for more carnage? steven: we wanted to look at it as a strategic opportunity something you take advantage of over perhaps 10 years. this absolute crush in profits in the energy is going to lead to a dearth of investment. we are going to see demand for the next decade and perhaps decades beyond of continuously

growing but a terrible lack of maintenance level investment in troubled copies that were expected to grow production in the future. tom: bring up the australian dollar chart. i was not aware of this implosion of australia. i saw a headline the other day of just the 1.5 standard deviation freefall in the australian dollar. that is a stronger u.s. dollar. we are back to tension levels as you measure australia versus the developed world. brendan: we are discovering which economies are commodity economies. we were looking at the goldman sachs note about iron ore. companies are not doing things that seem to make sense for them. are we seeing the emergence of competition? oil is no longer a cartel. maybe iron ore is not either. steven: you hear people go through cycles where they have this constraint you will never

see any sort of production growth and we will run out of things and suddenly, you get the opposite. the reality is is that many firms have fixed production costs and they are trying to minimize their losses in a down cycle. tom: the cardinal rule is when variable cost becomes your next cost. steven: despite the fact that production is strong in the petroleum your, the petroleum sector is in a recession. you can see that in investment. you can see that in the inverse profit dynamic. you can see that in employment. in the first half of 2015, energy-related capex in the united states is probably drag down economic growth i 0.75%. vonnie: if the long-term

investments are not happening what should investor do? steven: right now, we are at peak summer driving demand. refiners are pulling in in the united states half a million heralds per day which is more than usual for seasonal reasons to pull up a demand and you are seeing a week price even with this it for gary boost. there are other things like the iran deal so you could very easily see into the third and fourth quarters further declines in the oil price which hurts this investment dynamic. tom: you are getting into low territory with oil. brendan: one thing that is different about this oil crash is the physics of how they get it out of the ground. it's much easier to turn the tap on and off as necessary. steven: this is not a bad thing for american producers who find

that they will be profitable at lower oil price levels than anyone imagined. there are economies around the world that are not exploiting that and have lots of difficulties like security difficulties which will not see the investment to keep current reduction at the same level. it is a mixed picture in a different long one picture than the short run dynamic. vonnie: weak currencies for the next foreseeable future. steven: trillions of dollars of investments in all sorts of assets move around these things which look rather small from the perspective of one commodity 5% of american income spent on energy but the reality is you have me remarkable movements across the world. you look at canada and their currency, look at brazil, take a look at emerging and developed markets and you see lots of access. tom: would it -- we had a $57

and on the ruble and the dollar. i was thunderstruck by the australian dollar. that is a brutal move. brendan: we will move from commodities to check -- apple reports results after the bell. we will tell you what to look out for in tech earnings. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning everyone. i am the blowhard this morning as we welcome all of you. let's get to our top headlines. vonnie: it's the fifth

anniversary of the measure that has made no one happy on this date in 2010. present obama signed the dodd frank wall street reform and consumer protection act into law. it was the most sweeping revamp of u.s. financial laws since the new deal. it has serious critics on both sides of the political aisle. some say the new rules are strangling banks but others say it did not go far enough and it it's a bipartisan grouping congress is looking for ways to tweak it. shares of ibm are falling in premarket trading. big blue reported falling revenue for the third quarter in a row. the ceo has been trying to overhaul ibm to get into cloud computing and data analytics and heads cut costs but there have been declines in the services and software businesses. russian billionaire yuri milner made that's on facebook and twitter and wants to spend his money looking for aliens.

he has earmarked $100 million for his search.he is being joined by stephen hawking. researchers at the university of california run the roger. they will have access to two of the world's most powerful telescopes. i can point them in a direction. tom: is jodie foster involved? didn't she do a movie about that? vonnie: it was sigourney weaver. tom: money well spent. brendan: i'm sitting here why you talk about aliens and then you talk about apple. tom: it's a technology day. brendan: apple reports after the bell today. what am i paying attention to today? >> you are looking for iphone six in china. specifically, there is china macro weakness and you have seen a lot of ripples in the stock

market in china and you want to see the carries over to the chinese consumer and if they are not dying enough iphones. still the number one driver of the apple business in excess of 50% of revenue. you have a new model so you want to see the momentum continue. vonnie: i waited for the next model but what will tom get in the next month? >> i think the improvements in the iphone six will be marginal. you have seen this in terms of the number of improvements of every other generation. they will be a but the typical cadences that every other generation gives you dramatic improvements and the next generation gives you marginal ones. brendan: when we look at iphone in china, the results affected are the macro economic slowdown or the crackdown and luxury items question mark >> i think it's a combination of both. i think it's a combination of both. you want to see the new model momentum continues. it's a high-priced device.

it is a relatively new market for apple. it is a huge one and it's an incredibly profitable device for the company. tom: are they taking unit share from android and all the others? it seems like they are. >> you are right. in the near term, they are taking share away from samsung and the android system but then again, you have to remember that this is a high-end device at the top of the market and it's not going to be the share leader. you cannot expect ios and apple to be the share leader but near-term over the last few quarters, the share cadences shifting. tom: i was at their new store on madison avenue and it was packed. the fifth avenue store was jammed when i was in the other day. to me it's a cash generator. what's different and why shouldn't i see a on dividend increase or significant share

buyback? >> the capital structure issue is an ongoing one. apple has a high-quality product and they will have to do some structure adjustments to do a large buyback and tom: this is the coolest chart. it's like a failure chart. we are all going to die. the new apple phone will fail. we churn for a couple of months and something new comes out. brendan: we are talking about the watch? >> yes, it's questionable. it's a resounding silence with the iwatch. tom: do you have one? brendan: i don't have one. my wife has one. it's not the same thing as all of the infrastructure and everything else that went into the other products. >> there is not a whole lot going on. we have seen this with new

products. it takes time to catch up so we will see if the market is as big as apple thought it was. we will see if it will be as prolific as some of their other products. tom: we are looking at earnings very much today. in annexed hour, we will be joined -- in our next hour, we will link earnings into what we see from our central bank and what we see across a better american economy. this is like a normal show. we have not mentioned greece yet. the twitter question of the day -- can we get through an hour without talking about greece? has dodd frank been a success? we have already gotten a huge emotional response. do that on twitter. stay with us from new york city "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning everyone. we thank you for being with us. it's almost a normal day. we are as greece-free as we have been. full faith and credit in germany, the two year yield is lower this morning so there is some tension in greece even though it is not front and center. what is front and center around the world is the idea of uber. megan mcardle wrote up the benefits of uber which is a scathing op-ed.

to me, this is the absolute part of uber new cars and blah bl ah blash the safety factor going both ways. brendan: this is a classic san francisco argument is that they will go to four areas -- to a poor area. people don't necessarily have a good connection in a poor area. tom: this is a raging argument across the tabloids. it's a game theory basis -- the safety issue of having a link to the past. do you agree? steven: this is one of those things that drives activities to cities. you get these fantastic applications included in the hearts of cities and that may be absent.

brendan: banks have said we don't need local branches because people can do it using their phones. and the places where you need a local branch, people don't have smart phones. that is an issue. technology does not solve everything. vonnie: you get a score. tom: i leave one star every time and no one will pick me up. vonnie: they leave scores on you, too. tom: our question of the day -- has dodd frank and a success? stay with us.

♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...)

(the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. tom: good morning everyone. let's get to our top headlines -- vonnie: we have not seen commodities get hammered like this in 13 years. the index is up slightly today

but it's below where it was during the 2008 financial meltdown and the 2012 crisis. gold is the latest commodity to get hit which is up today after hitting a five-year low. new york oil is hovering around $50 and is not been this low since april. diplomatic relations between the u.s. and cuba are getting back to normal. there are huge differences between the two. the flag went up over the cuban emmett the -- cuban embassy in washington. secretary of state john kerry made it clear that the u.s. will not negotiate over the u.s. naval base at guantanamo bay cuba. >> at this time, there is no discussion and no intention on our part to alter the existing lease treaty or other arrangements with respect to the naval station. vonnie: the cuban foreign minister was standing next to him at a news conference and said guantanamo bay must be returned to cuba before

relations can be completely normalized. ohio governor john kasich become the 16th republican to enter the presidential race. he makes his formal announcement. today he is 63 and served 18 years in congress before being elected governor. his first test will be getting into the first residential debate next month in his home state. only the top 10 candidates will make it an e is in 12th place right now in the polls. apple releases earnings today after the bell and investors will have to dig to figure out how many apple watches were sold and what sales will be included and other products. orders for the apple watch have fallen 90% since its debut. tonight in colorado is the first for u.s. television. the first marijuana commercial will air on broadcast tv. we have an exclusive look. >> you lead an adventurous life always finding new ways to relax. now enjoy the best effects and

control. recreate responsibly. vonnie: you will notice the word marijuana is never mentioned. regulators in colorado in post stuff -- tough restrictions. brendan: is re-create a verb? tom: let me help you in colorado. in the 1970's, the band sugarloaf singing "green eyed lady." at the field house at older and that was the first ever tie-in for marijuana. brendan: what did smell like? tom: it was a cloud. brendan: i've been wondering what the cloud is. tom was at the first instance of cloud. tom: that is the cloud. let's move on before we get into further trouble. the theme today's earnings

quality in the short answer is very good. we have the global chief investment strategist at citibank. away from oil, our earnings centered on cost-cutting? you do this better than anyone i know, linking earnings to the economy. steven: profits will lead investments of certain aspects of the economy will follow behind profits. demand in the economy will come first and then you will find profits production and investment costs. tom: will the sell side come up? steven: it's been 2.5 years where we are in a range where if profits are falling, know they are not after the actual results are in. we are dealing with a very large dragon the energy sector in the neighborhood of 50% decline. tom: what is the earnings growth right now x energy?

that's pretty good? steven: you can take a look at net share repurchases as pulling up the earnings number in excess of 1%. the growth and the net are different. -- the gross and the net are different. this is indicative of the u.s. and world economy. if you look at the broader u.s. economy, it is moderate and the world economy is in a growth -- a moderate growth better now. this will be partly through the exchange rate and the revenue effects that it's a moderately growing world. the larger issue is the exchange rate in terms of how sharp the volatility is. brendan: do you have a path or the dollar? steven: we are at the point right now where -- the rest of the world wants the old american consumer back. you can see this with appreciation of the dollar and the drop in oil price and the

u.s. absorbing and being the larger producer but the world really wants american demand and americans to go out and consumed massively. it takes time. tom: if a trade weighted dollar goes through strength, we feel better? steven: it depends what industry you are in. it's not where we were six years ago where the deficit was 4% of the economy. it's now 1% of the economy. it's not the jump for joy that strategists and economist used to talk about with falling oil in the united dates. we have this very big sector that is booming and has been important for job creation. even people who work in shale oil fields have to pay for gasoline. it helps consumer balance sheets and i don't think we will see no

impact on consumption. brendan: we know the model's say that will happen but have we seen that for consumers? steven: it has been slow but the price goes down one day and you suddenly spend more, it gets absorbed in household.budgets you have seen beneath the surface with the rise in vehicle sales and cyclical spending housing and exports are powerfully negatively correlated. one thing we say with savings flow is some spur to housing but not what was going into the bubble but we are getting the macro incentive to strengthen housing in the united states. vonnie: what about the organic earnings growth? steven: the sad thing to say perhaps is that we are very late in this recovery in the united states. we have seen unemployment fall from 10 to the low fives and province outperform that massive drop.

we should not suddenly expect a massive acceleration in the u.s. economy to be sustained for the next five years. this has been the recovery. the last few years have been a substantial recovery for the united states. brendan: going back to the goldman sachs note on iron ore they said they talked to manufacturers and housing in china and the shift to infrastructure spending. do you see the same thing? steven: with all of the boom and bust in the a share market it has been growing at a decent ring pace. there are modest signs of improvement. when you talked about this earlier in the context of one company, you still see retail sales grow in china nearly 11% nominal. that has slowed down some but you have a very big economy with a consumer that is gaining share over time in a reseller rating overall situation for the chinese economy. brendan: five years ago to the

day this happened -- [applause] tom: i'm doing a steny hoyer clap. i'm not clapping. they have like 47 pens? they do that. brendan: that was president obama signing. frank into law. is its job -- signing dodd frank into law. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. let's get to a single best chart. brendan: five years ago today, president obama signed dodd frank into law. that is five years of regulation and that's the story of our single best chart. this is the impact on how much tangible equity banks are holding. mark whitehouse can up with this chart. mark we are looking at this --

is this enough? mark: no, but i have to give tom mahoney credit for this chart. you can see capital has gone up about 20%. even if you double a small number, you still have a small number. we are at about 5%. what does that mean? it is as if you bought a house and put 5% down. the value of the house falls by 5% and you are out of equity. if that happens with the whole banking system, that's a problem for the economy and we have experienced that recently. brendan: i have seen evidence on the subject and they suggest equity would be as high as 25%. there's no political will to get near that, right? mark: yes, there isn't. is it regulatory capture are

the regulators listening to the argonne's presented by banks? the argument -- the typical argument is that it will be bad for the economy. but capital is misunderstood. it's not money the banks have to set aside for a rainy day. . it's money they get from shareholders, it's equity brendan: do you see hirer equity offers as a threshold of the economy? steven: it's not cost free to the economy. it should make the economy saver. what's not shown on the chart is liabilities for banks. if you measure the total liability level, it's not entirely measuring the risk. you can have de-risking of the liabilities at the same time you raise equity capital. i think systemic financial risk in the banking system has dropped in a way we have never seen before. you saw 50 years of increasing leverage in the banking system

in a bad decade and it has come down dramatically if you look at liabilities and equity together. tom: you mentioned tom koenig from the kansas city fed. some people say there should be more of him in washington. are the people who were lining up for the next tranche of dodd frank more like tom honig where they have a respect for capitalism market but they want to rig it to what we do? mark: there are some like him at the fed and janet yellen seems to be interested in using the regulator powers to increase capital but they have not gone far enough. tom: who says that? that's one opinion. jimjamie dimon would have a different opinion. brendan: what opinion would he have? tom: he had a cash: $12 billion. james gorman said we have enough capital. my audience is confused. mark: we have about 5%.

in 2009, the imf incident -- indicated that u.s. losses on loans would be 8%. you don't want markets to entertain the possibility that banks will go through their c want to have more capital than that. tom: is the swiss model the best model? mark: they have a lot of hybrid securities to increase their capital. it's not clear how those would act in a crisis. it's better to have equity. tom: you want cash from equity -- would you predict we will see secondary offerings on the major banks? mark: jpmorgan will have to raise a little bit of f for the new rules that were finalized yesterday. there you have it,. brendan: 3% short fall. tom: it's a raging debate. mark: i would say more than that.

you want banks to be in a strong position after taking losses. erring on the high side makes sense. brendan: we have to get to photos. vonnie: number two top photo has the camera on the deep horizons space satellite which is returning from earth from one million miles away. tom: to be clear, we did not come back from pluto, right? vonnie: right, this is from the observatory. brendan: it's so far away. vonnie: it is a four megapixel camera. tom: 240,000 miles to the moon roughly so four times that is one million miles. pluto is like out on 60th street. brendan: we are leaning toward

tom meeting in central park. i'm on my way, goodbye. vonnie: our next top auto -- in los angeles, the police were called. los angeles needed to borrow a police helicopter for the game against the boston red sox. they needed to prepare the field for today's doubleheader. our number one top photo today is jfk airport in new york is making flying more luxurious for your pets. it's building a 178 rows in square foot facility that will open in 2016 and will be the world's only privately owned animal terminal and full-service 24-hour airport quarantine facility for imported and exported pets. it will be equipped with a swimming pool for dogs. are you serious?

suites with flatscreen tvs -- tom: it would be a mockup for the delta shuttle. brendan: they have a pool at jfk and we don't? our twitter question of the day is not about dog pools. let's be honest, we would rather talk about dog pools. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: a different day at "bloomberg surveillance," almost greece-free. vonnie: an 18-year-old french girl is making researchers take a new look at treating hiv. she has been remission for 12 years without drugs. she was born with the virus and received anti-aids drug is on till she was six. it revives hopes that aggressive early treatment can help those with hiv control it without taking medicine their entire lives. a new internet market place with

a lofty goal is launching today. they plan to challenge amazon and costco by starting with a wide array of 10 million items. there is a $50 per year fee to shop at the company gives you a refund if you don't stay that much. there has been an initial investigation into the explosion of that spacex rocket last month. elon musk says struts and a liquid oxygen tank snapped. it was made by a supplier and spacex employees have grown complacence and -- since most of them have knownliquid oxygen successful launches. do you know what a strut is? brendan: no, tom does but we will not let him talk about it. john kasich is expected to announce today that he is running for president. that will happen at the ohio state university.

donald trump seems to be the only one that matters. what is going on? should we take donald trump seriously or is this name recognition? steven: we don't know. this is the key moment to figure this out. everybody has been surprised that donald trump has sinned these kind of poll numbers. -- has seen these kind of poll numbers. nobody would have thought. brendan: it's unbelievable. >> the one thing about this poll is that it was taken before his comments about john mccain on saturday. brendan: these comments about john mccain, is this going to have an impact in the republican party? >> it might. from thursday-saturday, donald trump at 28% of the republican vote which is a huge number. on sunday, the day after he said these things it is a small

sample size of 200 people -- that it dropped to a single digit. what you saw them as one poll that could tell us anything -- and this one poll, we are starting to see an effect. some of it is turning against him. tom: what is the level of panic among republican and democrat establishment that they have lost control of the process? >> the scariest part for the establishment especially on the republican side -- democrats are quietly dancing in the corner -- the scariest prospect to republicans is there is a lot of people talking about whether he is making a mockery out of the debate process and whether he is sucking the oxygen out of the room -- if donald trump runs as an independent, it shows he would get something like 20% of the vote dropping the support of jeb bush down to 30%. this is a nightmare. tom: in every cycle there is a

john anderson. brendan: john kasich is not just the 16 candidate, he is stronger than that? >> that's right but his struggle will be convincing people that this race is one more candidate. is the governor of ohio. he is a nine term former congressman. he has held high positions in committees. on paper, he is a really strong candidate. in a crowded race like this -- tom: which primary matters? forget about the debates. when people actually vote which state are you focused on? >> the first twwo early states will be the biggest indicators of how this will go. john kasich is focusing everything on new hampshire. the field is divided between

those who are making everything on ohio. that will be a litmus test for him. brendan: let's not forget about the debates. how will they get 15 people on stage? this was important in the last cycle for the republicans. steven: the republican party has never had more than 10 people on the stage so they are trying to figure this out. foxnews is the one hosting the debate coming up the first week of august and they are the ones trying to figure out how to cut down the field for the debate. they have come up with a system where they will average the most recent polls to take the top candidates and those will be the ones in the debate. tom: i will not be watching. it's too complicated. thank you very much. we are seeing the commodity

implosion with a strong dollar. this is the fourex report -- stay with us, another hour of "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: commodities declined to

levels not seen in decades. the dollar advances as emerging market and australia confront industrial and mining collapse. a waiting return, the nominal animal spirits. paul volcker would not recognize his rule today. the volcker rule goes into effect. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. i am tom keene with vonnie quinn at. we are remarkably greece-free. brendan: we are remarkably greece-free. i am looking at verizon on the terminal. tom: microsoft and apple after the bell with yahoo! as well. need to get to top headlines. vonnie: thank you, tom. one wealth manager is calling it a mess. he is talking about the taking

of commodities. they are at a 13-year low. the commodity indexes lower than it was during the 2008 meltdown or the eurozone crisis. the crisis is evident from gold to sugar. oil is hovering around $100 -- around $50 a barrel. the possibility of a greek exit from the euro may be back on the table next year. almost 3/4 of the economy surveyed by bloomberg said the debt ridden company could be forced out by 2016. a $93 billion bailout the greeks are getting will not be enough. a major newspaper in an early primary states, iowa, says donald trump should quit the race. the paper calls him a "secularist blowhard." trump is not apologizing for

criticizing the arizona senator's record on veteran affairs to bill o'reilly on fox. mr. trump: he is the head of the group that runs -- i mean, somebody is doing a bad job. it is corruption, it is massive corruption, it is massive incompetence, and the people are relieving treated like -- bill o'reilly: all right, i think -- vonnie: the latest poll had a trunk with a double-digit lead. but the abc/"washington post" survey was before his comments about mccain. nike is giving the ceo a reward nearly 10 times higher than usual. the target of $30 million will be available if he stays with nike five more years. and each of the nfl's 32 teams

got more than $236 million from the league last year. that cast came from nfl revenue sharing. mostly based on tv revenues. the amount was availed in a report from the green bay packers. did you guys contribute anything to that revenue stream? tom: a little bit. he wonder where salaries are going to go. there is a real correlation -- money coming in, a good hunk of it goes to the players. we have seen some of those deals recently. let me do a data check. it is quiet out there, away from commodities. will we have $49 print on american oil $50.1. let's leave it right there and get to a commodity discussion. iron ore makes the asia headlines, but far more is a simple collapse among metals. ryan chilcote knows it starts in and that the london metals

exchange where it is metallic and very painful right now. ryan, this is not an all individual thing, this is an all in commodities debacle, isn't it? ryan: it is. i think this is really extraordinary. i have been watching commodities for eight years, and in those eight years, we have seen nothing like this. you look at the bloomberg commodities index, and you have to go back 13 years to see these kind of low prices. 2012 eurozone crisis, serious weakness and demand here europe did not see anything like this. 2008 financial crisis, a global crisis, yet commodity prices were higher. across before, all 20 commodities in the bloomberg commodity index, and more than that -- it is pretty profound. tom: what is the pain on london's wall street or new york's wall street? is the city in anguish? ryan: the city is in anguish. there are a lot of resource companies. they have already started to hurt your it you look at some of the issues like iron or, for

example. iron or is not part of bloomberg's commodity index. nonetheless it is a hugely important commodity. a lot of the big miners are obviously providing iron ore to china. we have that from goldman sachs saying the problem is they do not need that much iron ore, yet we expect those companies to continue to provide it. all of the mining companies, the ftse are going to suffer. brendan: ryan i'm only asking because you cut your teeth on russia. we have not talked about vladimir putin and a while. how does he feel about the price? ryan: we know that russia can sustain let's say $56 a barrel for brent. that is the price we had going for a while. i am not sure that anyone really anticipated that it was going to stay this low for this long. he could probably go for about a year like this. a lot of people talking about how the iran deal and russia's

participation in winning the iran deal was actually kind of bad for russia, but i think the russians are taking the longer view, and they think the opening of the iranian market is a bigger opportunity for them then perhaps we get they are experiencing with the result of more iranian oil on the market. tom: ryan chilcote, thank you in london. part of the investing is not a trapped in the perceived value. yes a look no further than yesterday's ibmer work. -- ibm report. as we consider the opportunities, the u.s. equity strategy had at the bank of america merrill lynch joins us. francisco blanche was on a few days ago. what do you feel about the commodity within the united states? guest: within the united states oil is a good barometer, and he is looking for a little more downside. i think these by the end of the year.

tom: do you pick bottom stocks right now? savita: i do not feel like equity investors are feeling pain right now because every survey you look at, i think there has been a building hatred of commodities since late last year, so i do not think anyone is really in the stocks. tom: how do you step into this freefall? savita: i would buy energy stocks now. here is why -- energy is the most hated. d it has been in the history of our data. if you look at a stock, they have actually bottomed in t erms of revision. analysts have been slashing prices. they have been doing this for a couple of quarters. earnings estimates have been more than half they were from where they were. it is a time to look for opportunities. a couple of my favorites are the bigger dividend-yielding companies that could be bought not necessarily as naan oil

play but more for the yield, the growth, the solid balance sheet of a lot of these larger cap energy companies. brendan: what about mining? are we seeing the same thing that we saw an oil six months ago where they story has shifted from demand to supply? savita: i worry about mining for one reason, which is china. a few look at the correlation between mining stocks and china, it is spot on. very worried because china has not a fairly bottomed yes, -- brendan: you are still talking demand, not supply. savita: for metal? yeah, i think there is still overcapacity. if you look at the buildup of capacity in china, there is still a lot of excess capacity even in the u.s. we have not seen that big of a pickup in residential construction. we have all been waiting for it. maybe it happens, but we have not seen strong signs of that, so i think there is still a capacity issue. tom: is mining a rational business? savita: [laughs] tom: airlines are not a rational

business. i mean, seriously, is mining a rational business? savita: in what sense? tom: investments. they invest like animals. too standard deviation -- if you look at the a strong and dollar right now -- i will put this chart out on bloomberg radio plus in a best him if you look at the aussie dollar, it is a standard implosion. you cannot run a business on that. savita: everyone had to get a lot more rational over the last five years. if you look at the number of companies building out capacity or spending on, we are at an all-time low. management has gotten much more disciplined about their decision-making them they were five years or 10 years ago. but, you know, overall equity -- corporate america is a little bit irrational. they tend to do things at the wrong time. for example -- buybacks area companies always tend to top take their own stock.

there are a lot of pockets of irrationality. tom: we've a lot to talk about here. i just put out on bloomberg radio plus that chart of aussie dollar. brendan you rarely see that. when we say -- we try, folks, to not say "implode" or "plunge" unless we mean it. brendan: they cannot let go. tom: implode is an accurate word this morning for this. let's switch gears. our twitter quest of the day, on the volcker rule, has dodd-frank been a success? we have a ginormous response to this question. stay with us. vonnie quinn, brendan greeley and tom keene. you are watching and listening to "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. gold, $11.06 an ounce. thank you for all the e-mails about gold. let's get to commodities. here is brendan with a smart morning must-read. brendan: pretty good morning so far. it has now been an hour and 10 minutes into our show, tom, and i am using greece for the first time. mine comes from bloomberg view what europe should learn from asia's crisis. greece shares many similar he's with 1997 korea.

korea recovered by openly admitting the magnitude of its public and private debt. efforts were made to introduce greater transparency to chaebol, tax collection became a national obsession. when you look at europe, has there been any -- too much focus on yesterday and not enough on structural reform? savita: i think the transfer and the point is an excellent one. really uncertainty is that area we all know this great having a plan and being a little more transparent about it, even from a corporate perspective. corporate transparency and telling investors what can happen i think is most important. brendan: more importantly, that i pronounce "chaebol" right? savita: [laughs] sounds good to me. brendan: the recovery --

savita: it has been helped by a massive bubble formed in the credit market. it was not just a structural reform but also secular. interest rates fell down to the lowest rates we had seen, which was a big lose to emerging markets. what might look like a structural reform might have actually been a big boost. tom: to be direct about this greece is not ireland, greece is not korea -- it is about people and culture. vonnie what was it like in dublin at the bottom? vonnie: i was not there because i got out at the time. [laughter] tom: keep talking, i am going to twitter. vonnie: it was not a pleasant experience. as bad as it was in dublin, it was much worse around the country. are our investors safe now from asia? have the fears subsided for now? savita: i focus on the u.s., and what thing i notice is that

analysts have been very good and stocks have reacted very strongly to what is going on with iran, the supply of oil coming online, what is going on in europe, any stock with european exposure has sold off earnings have been again cut down to a fraction of their former self. china stocks have seen no reaction. all the china plays in the u.s. where companies are starting to die down have seen no reaction. tom: let's come back. savita subramanian with us with bank of america. frank keating on the bid for small banks as well next. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance good morning america "bloomberg surveillance one. ."-- tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to top headlines. vonnie: on this date in 2010 president obama signed the dodd-frank ball. -- law. it was the most sweeping revamp of u.s. financial loss since the sweeping new deal, but has

critics on both sides of the political aisle. some say they are strangling banks, others say they do not go strong enough. a bipartisan group in congress is looking for ways to tweak it. falling in the premarket after a big losing streak entered a fourth year. all of its major units missed estimates in the recent period. ibm is trying to shift from services and software to cloud computing and data technology. and the famed british open trophy will be brought back to the u.s. american zach johnson beat two rivals to take the title. it is his second victory in a major tournament. that was a beautiful shot right there. tom: it is gorgeous. vonnie: yeah i mean, you have got to feel sorry for jordan spieth -- brendan: no one on this earth has to feel sorry for juden jordan spieth! tom: great valleyg valliere posting

-- jeb bush, scott walker, then everybody else. brendan: i would add in another tier, people like ben carson who just does not have the legislative experience, then john kasich, who is much more plausible, but is not in the scott walker-jeb bush era. tom: he did not mention donald trump. that was good of mr. valliere as well. earnings could begin to pour in for america's publicly traded companies. the summaries once again underestimate expense control, and to an extent topline growth. sabina supervita subramanian got it right. once again, the great underestimation within the accommodative sphere that janet yellen has given them -- they

are minting billions. when does it end? savita: i do not think it ends this quarter. [laughs] it is hard to tell of this is a midcycle cause or if this is the end of the cycle. i think it is a midcycle positive and here is why -- corporations are still sitting on piles and piles of cash, and they have not done anything with it. now what we have notice -- this is kind of interesting -- companies that are actually spending money on growth, either on capex buying other businesses -- tom: they are not by a revenue line. savita: they are outperforming where is companies returning cash or underperforming. i think what that means is corporations -- if i am ceo of a company, i have more incentive to spend my money and grow my business, which is actually good for the economy. tom: i hate the word synergy, but i will use it here -- they sell to log lockheed.

that is the transaction that seems to be the future. savita: oh, yeah, spinoffs seem to be driving the market. so far, they have an rational because one of our barometers is looking forced the deals, deals being done better smart or stupid. so far the reaction of companies when an ounce they are acquiring another business has been positive, we've seen upsides to the stock. when that turns to downside, when companies start selling off upon deal announcements, that is when you know the cycle is probably closer to over, we are starting to see some of these deals. vonnie: just to tom's point, united technologies cut its profit forecast, the second time in more than a month. weak demand in aerospace parts -- tom: within the revenue line and your expertise in greece, there is a partial differential between price and is that they jack welsh economy where we will see price -- savita: i think the guys that have pricing power are going to win in the next couple of years. tom: is that a throwback 20

years? [laughter] brendan: let's throwback five years. we are in such a weird place after the recession and the grass -- where are we for consumers? where are the consumers right now in what we used to call a cycle? savita: i kind of see this as the end of early cycle. our friend ethan harris, our chief economist, is forecasting that the fed finally hikes rates come september. that generally means the end of the consumer-driven market. consumers and a lot when they are incentived to spend an rates are low. it shifts the bending from consumer spending to corporate spending. i think that is where we are right now. companies have not really spent, they have not really hired, now they're just starting to. rates are just starting to seem like they're are going to go up, and that generally is the end of the consumer-driven market and the beginning of the capex or corporate spending. brendan: when we start walking

of the rate staircase. savita: i think that could be a catalyst for it but the other catalyst is companies that are spending our outperforming. if i am running a company, and i am shareholder friendly, i want my's talk to go up. i will then on growth -- brendan: why is it that you know that and the companies don't? savita: well, i think there are a lot of reasons not to spend, and the number one reason is fear. we just lived through the worst, the most cataclysmic recession we have ever seen, so according capital feels better than spending a lot of money. vonnie: and the consumer is not there. maybe for automakers but -- savita: i think the consumer has changed. i think the consumers are not going to go back to the spending patterns that we saw in the 2000's. tom: i will say apple this afternoon, what they are doing is saving up for the next iphone or the i this or i that.

coming up, frank keating will join us, chief executive officer of american bankers association. former governor of oklahoma. maybe we can talk to him about oil as well. what are today -- has dodd-frank been a success? we to hear from you. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to top headlines. here is vonnie. vonnie: it has been 13 years since commodities plunged like this. the u.s. commodity index is up slightly today, but it is lower than it was during the 2008

meltdown. gold was the latest commodity to get hit. it is up today after hitting a five-year low. oil hovering around $50 a barrel in new york. it is not been this low since april. the historic restart of relations between the u.s. and cuba has also been leading to some major disagreements. the flag was raised yesterday over cuba's embassy in washington, but there is no change in the status of u.s. naval base on cuban soil guantanamo bay. secretary kerry: at this time, there is no discussion and no intention on our part of this moment to alter the existing lease treaty or other arrangements with respect to the naval station. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities cuba -- vonnie: the republican presidential field will grow to 16 today. ohio governor john kasich is officially entering the race.

the 63-year-old kasich might have trouble getting onto the stage for debate in his home state. only the top 10 candidates will make it, and he is now 12 in the polls. apple releases earnings after the bell today. investors will have to dig a little to figure out how many apple watches were sold. sales will be included in a "other products" category. orders for the apple watch have fallen 90% since its debut. tonight in colorado, it is a first -- marijuana commercial will air on broadcast tv. we got an exclusive look. >> you lead an adventurous life, always finding new ways to relax. now enjoy the best control and recreate discreetly. neos. recreate responsibly. you lead an adventurous life. tom: that was the colorado ad.

we have breaking news -- verizon just reporting results, bottom line beat, second quarter etf $1.04. analysts were looking for $1.01. sales were up more than 2%, a gain of more than 4%. verizon is changing its business model to what is essentially a leasing model. guest: that is part of the story here vonnie what we have seen over time, let's call it the last year, really, it little bit more than that, is that transition from those two-year contracts it really lock people in, they hate them. i personally hate them. we are now moving to a model away from that two-year contract and that subsidy that goes along with it to now people buying their phones over a 24-minus period. -- 24-month period. vonnie: and that is better for verizon why?

john: they are to book the equipment, they charge a lower service amount, but over time, i think it is good for them. tom: this is not a banking stock. it is a pretty clear press release or in very and it is a 2.4% operating revenue increase. is t-mobile setting the clock? john: t-mobile is a problem. they are a major disruptor in the margin. tom: -- john: i have not. i think it is called magneta or something. brendan: average revenue per user -- vonnie: postings of 1.1 million -- john: that is good. what you want to do with that number is look deeper and see the mix between tablets in actual phones. tablets are lower margin. vonnie: fios internet would be part of that -- john: fios is on the wireline side.

verizon needs to move beyond wireless services as we know them, the voice services into streaming video, brings them into competition or maybe cooperation with apple -- who knows? but ultimately they need to get into that video delivery service, and they have not articulated well, but they are moving on i ort. tom: are they a yield hard trap? is it dead money for retirees? john: people are in it for the evidence, i think to a degree, tom, but look the video story to be big if they get it right. verizon has quietly been amassing these assets like on cue and uplink. they are really getting ready for something big. tom: all right, john butler with bloomberg intelligence.

turning to the market, oil is what we are watching along with old, $50, $.10 a barrel on american oil. gold this morning $11.08 an ounce. a little bit of a rebound. commodities in general slams. brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm brendan greeley with tom keene. five years ago today president obama signed dodd-frank into law. its goal was to prevent another financial crisis. frank keating, once the governor of oklahoma, is the ceo of the american bankers association. he joins us from d.c. governor, you have been on this show often enough that we know roughly how you feel about dodd-frank. what would you fix now and how? mr. keating: you know, brendan we need to do some fixing, and everyone would agree when one party passes legislation virtually alone -- in the case of the dodd-frank and the

informal care act -- is very few republicans were involved, i think is a very important thing to revisit it. even dodd and frank agree pieces could be amended or do you think the most to give you peace is the more his peace. the reality is with a very artificial fence line, 43% of debt to income ratio -- i know when i bought my first house mouse 27, i had the owner-seller collateralize the first x dollars where i had my dad signed the note as well, those are not loans that could not be sold into the market. those kinds of things have to be addressed. artificiality keeps a lot of people out. as you know, this is the worst number in a generation of the number of people who are homeowners in america, and that is not good news or. brendan: this is the to station we have talked about before, the large banks. let's move to the significant

financial institutions. do they have enough equity? mr. keating: the banks have never been healthier. a combination of the regulators' insistence that they have a lot of extra capital, a combination of the congress' insistence that they have a lot of extra capital -- that is good, but remember if you have too much capital, for every dollar of added capital, that is $10 of less lending. if you have a vibrant, a robust capital economy as we intend to have and have had and should have, then you have to make sure you do not over capitalized b anks. hopefully we have not gone over that edge. brendan: what we're talking but is not necessarily the edge but i mix of equity and debt. our banks healthy enough? do they need more equity? mr. keating: i think they are healthy enough but what is required here, i do not know

what happened i did not have the honor of representing the bank or in the time of the crisis am a but it you were a regulator from the occ the fed, the fdic whomever if you are a regulator, how about making sure somebody has a job, assets, and income before you give them a mortgage? let them obligate themselves to a 30-year note. those kinds of things hopefully do not exist anymore, but we do need to remove artificial barriers to growth, we do need to encourage people, otherwise like me, dad cosigned the note why shouldn't i be able to have my home? tom: frank i know you represent the bankers and you want to be a cheerful, happy guy, let me cut to the chase -- mr. keating: i am smiling, tom. tom: are there too many banks given this new regulatory regime? mr. keating: well there are too many banks, frs, perhaps, some regulators think. i have never had any of them

tell me -- why do we need somebody banks? the reality is the united states is are unique. i come from oklahoma, as noted by brandon -- from sea to shining sea, there are many counties in america that would not survive if not for the existence of a community bank. yet we have lost one they today, seven days a week and gross numbers since the fall of 2008. is that to closure, is that to insolvency? no. it is to sale to merger because a lot of people are saying -- i cannot take this. i am more concerned about the regulators. brendan: governor, we are running low on time. could you rewrite dodd-frank right now on the back of an envelope? mr. keating: no, but maybe you need to start from scratch on some things. i think goodman women of good will both ought to sit down here during the interim or certainly hopefully this bill that is being considered this fall by senator shelby's committee will be a start, but we do need to amend it. tom: governor keating, thank you

so much, representing american bankers association. our twitter russian of the day we have been humbled by the response -- our twitter question of the day, we have been humbled by the response has dodd-frank been a success? ♪

tom: good morning, everyone.

"bloomberg surveillance." stability in a commodity market this morning, gold above $1100. brendan? brendan: $2 trillion of m&a transactions completed so far this year. it is only july. we have got erik schatzker with us on the desk this morning. you have got the cohead of global m&a for goldman sachs coming on. what are you going to talk about? erik: the animal spirits are still pretty good. consider the fact that leverages still pretty cheap, financing of all sorts is still really cheap. valuations are not crazy, but they are high enough that there are a lot of potential sellers now which are, you know, who find that they may have been reluctant in the years post crisis to sell because they did not feel like the stock price was high enough, and there are cash flows, their profits were being valued appropriately. now that has changed. we have seen multimillion dollar

deals this year, the likes of which we did not see in the post crisis period . look at bg, for example, charter communications-time warner deal, the kraft deal, 65 billion dollars. numbers are staggering, and we are looking to top 2007 records all you for m&a and investments by our calculations, $3.8 trillion. brendan: we has to be a super and many and -- we have savita: subramanian with us. because they cannot grow organically, they are by and growth. how long will that continue? savita: one aspect that has really driven m&a activity the cycle's chief financing, but it is also earning nothing on cash. the hurdle rate is 0 effectively, so you can either order your cash and earn nothing or you can spend it and buy some

growth in its mall or cap. i do think that valuations are starting to get a little bit and certain sectors. small biotech -- erik: the other thing to point out is there are some industries which are getting tapped out for consolidation. think about health insurance. the justice department is only going to allow so many transactions before they bring down the curtain. airlines -- no more consolidation among the major airlines. maybe among the smaller carriers. the more that happens, the more we see the big deals -- vonnie: for example, the euro is so much cheaper than it was. our company is looking outside europe? erik: they say they are. look at fedex, for example. at exit buying tnt and that is a cross-border transaction, also strategic, which is different from "i am buying earnings-per-share growth rue consolidation and cost-cutting," that is what bankers love to see because when you have a company that will continue, presumably,

to be hungry for other strategic deals over the next several years. brendan: real quick, less incentive for m&a when the rates go up? savita: i think rates going from 0 to 25 basis points will till it, but when we get to a much higher level, that might be a -- brendan: thanks again. gregg lemkau, of goldman sachs is going to join "market makers." this is "bloomberg surveillance" on blumer television and radio. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to our top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: an 18-year-old french girls making researchers take a new look at treating hiv. she has been in remission for five years without the drugs. the girl was born with the virus and received anti-aids drugs until she was six years old. early treatment can help patients control hiv without taking medicines their entire life. verizon's reporting revenues this morning that fell short of forecasts. the telecom giant posted second quarter revenues of $32.2 billion, but $200 million shorter than estimates.

the company is projecting revenue growth of at least 3% this year. verizon down .7% in the premarket. a new internet marketplace is launching today. jet.com plans to challenge amazon and costco. it is offering a wide array of items. it promises a refund of $50 if you do not say that much. it costs $50 a month. tom: scarlet fu owns costco. she knows every aisle, where everything is. vonnie: she will have to give us a tour. tom: she onces bought 200 bowties. brendan: the greeleys have a recurring order at fresh direct. it just shows up. tom: a seattle slew of technology earnings, not amazon but microsoft, yahoo!, and apple. it is different for

corporations. they show a minimal interest in investment, investment i'm sure in my textbook suggests it is supposed to create jobs. where is the money, and where is it going? is it going abroad or is there simply too much stuff out there? that has been a nagging fear for our nation's history. savita subramanian of merrill lynch, this is a debate whether you are at berkeley or columbia, which is, ", ohoh no, it is over." it is like, watson 1998. the computing is done. savita: i think it is a pause. i think we are at a point where corporations -- i mean, if you look at wage inflation, it is starting to pick up a little bit. that is a barometer of whether companies are starting to hire.

i think things are getting tighter. tom: when you talk to ethan harris, is the money going abroad? is the investment dollars therefore colegate, except they are putting into malaysia? savita: that might be the case and that has been the case for a while, but in terms of the marginal investment dollar, the u.s. equity market is the least exciting place to be right now amongst all the other regions. brendan: do corporate finance textbooks know how to keep up with low growth? savita: [laughs] are we off the grid? i think it is a great question. i think there are two big bubbles forming right now, and they are about to pop in a pretty bad way. one of them is arty starting to. the first is yield odds. you mentioned these bonds like companies, that is where everybody flock stupid the other side are these high-growth smaller cap, i secular growth -- because the idea to cycle

death, user have to buy idiot sigrid -- idiosyncratic debt -- tom: i agree with every thing you are saying except against overwhelmed by cashman said, cash generated. what are they going to do with that cash? savita: at least in the u.s., we are in the process of shrinking rather than next ending cash. -- than expanding catch. let's say we online qe that means the liquidity at least the starting to shrink. tom: tom: is there a tantrum in the equity markets? savita: i do not think there will be another tantrum because it has been so well communicated by the fed. an increase in rates -- it is already sort of in the stocks. vonnie: the fed chair avoided talking about biotech/week -- savita: she has mentioned them and small caps as being

bubble-like. that is where investors have crowded into and a where the cycle can never actually turn. vonnie: we are in an actual bubble -- savita: there are pockets of the market that look incredible. smaller cap, high secular growth names, either the him in a bid or -- the m&a bid or everybody crowding into the same few names that have actually generated growth has created the air pocket. brendan: how much of this willingness to spend cash is just cash arbitrage? savita: there are a lot of machinations going on in a because like you said, we are in a low growth environment. you have to do tax arbitrage cut costs, do whatever it takes to generate that extra incremental earning. i think we're at the end of the cycle, so what i'm watching is sales what makes me feel better about the u.s. stock market is

sales are starting to come back, so if you look at the s&p energy, we are growing sales at about 6%, which is much healthier than what we had. tom: it covers of a lot of ills. how lean are the cost-cutting? can it go forever and ever? savita: i think we are at the tail end. costs are starting to creep back online. the most labor-intensive companies like the hotels restaurants, retailers are starting to miss earnings on cost. i think we might actually be at the inflection point of cost being cut to cost coming back online. granted, we are not seeing it and commodities today in particular, but -- tom: but in the more mundane industries you are. savita: yes, exactly, and i think that might be the big surprise. tom: the big surprises we got through five years of dodd-frank. brendan: we did not get through anything. we are still writing rules to it

we may not get there by the end of the obama administration. what have we got for our twitter question? i saw a huge response. vonnie: we asked has it been a success. here are some of the answers, and thanks to everybody for tweeting. yes, they kill liquidity. tom: the hiring boom is without a question, every bank without question. brendan: this is one thing where frank keating is absolutely right. it is really hitting small banks harder. if you have to hire five new compliance officers -- vonnie: he did mention they're are open to considering that $50 billion mark. utter failure -- our second answer -- two big to fail still too big to fail but with layers of red tape added. still tbd. dodd-frank was the legislative equivalent of the "player to be named later.: " brendan: i love this tweet. i'm glad you picked it out.

the fight left the legislature and entered the regulatory faith, and that is a fight that is harder to understand. we still do not know what we ended up with. tom: the capital called news of the last 12 hours, the bottom line is they need to decide to they shrink their businesses or get out and get more cash? brendan: all right, my agenda for today is to understand commodities better. it does seem like we are entering a shift. we cannot just talk about supply -- i am sorry, we cannot just talk about demand for commodities, we have to talk about supply. that is not necessarily something that savita subramanian agrees with, but it does seem like things are changing. vonnie: i am going to be continuing to look in earnings for the rest of the day, listening to conference calls and after the close, we get yahoo! and apple -- two very interesting quarters. tom: a good day to dive into greece. it is a first quiet day, but it

is not quiet -- the pain and suffering four hundred 20 euros a week, the banks are open, but it is -- 20420 euros a week, the makes are open, but it is a big so what. brendan: it is a silence that everybody except angela merkel and will ensure blood have accepted. there needs to be a real debt restructuring, and it needs to happen soon. what am i looking for? another summit where they get back to business. not just about greece, they need to think about how they change the european union. it does not work now. tom: there it is. let me set you up for the day. of course a lot of earnings and those important revenue announcements this afternoon, bloomberg television and bloomberg radio, we will go beneath the headlines. savita will be looking at every number. savita: right. [laughs] tom: thank you so much, savita subramanian, a constructive

spirit on equity investments we will continue on bloomberg radio. "market makers" next on bloomberg television. gold $1108 per ounce. good morning. ♪

>> life from bloomberg headquarters in york, this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. stephanie: good a little bit

crazy morning. it's tuesday, july 21. you are watching "market makers." erik: today is a big one for tech earnings. we will hear from apple, microsoft, and yahoo!. ibm had its third stick -- straight quarterly decline. stephanie: he is going to be joining us at the opening bell. why don't you give us some stories. erik: here are some of the top stories. we haven't seen commodities hammered like this in 13 years. the commodity index is rising slightly today. commodities are the worst performing asset class of the year. everything from oil to sugar to precious metals are down. gold was the latest to get hit. it is up today fractionally after hitting a five-year low.