you what to watch for as apple, microsoft, and yahoo! split how much isx: donald trump really worth? scarlet: and the middle east, we will tell you about the big plans for the bank in saudi arabia. ♪ scarlet: good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu, here with alix steel. the dow is down over 1%, more than the essence the, more than double the s&p. a brutal day across the board. european stocks rolled over a bit, putting additional pressure on stocks and deteriorating since then. scarlet: a 228 point swing from peak to trough.

8 we can pretty much blame that on two huge stocks. ibm makes up 6% of the doubt. united tech in particular following the most in 2011. verizon not helping either, another dow component coming in with disappointing numbers. not just equities, moving out of that if you take a look at the euro, the euro is coming back after four days of weakness. just off the session highs, the s&p boosted credit ratings. five days if you look at it over a longer time. . alix: we did have that monster run, we were optimistic that we might see a rate increase with a

33% chance. scarlet: of course a weaker stock market makes it look more attractive. pushing yields down as well. 8 top stories crossing the terminal at this hour, another tough quarter for ibm. we were just talking about falling revenue for the 13th quarter in a row. the ceo has been trying to overhaul ibm to be a seller of cloud computing technology and data analytics. not enough to offset declines and services and software businesses, revenue falling 35%. new york city airport workers say that they will walk off their jobs amount night, voti unanimously for the right to strike at jfk. the union represents security officers, baggage handlers and will chair attended. the sabine the largest strike

since they contracted the workers three years ago. the pay is substandard. british airways would be one of the carriers affected. the companies are not commenting. alix: seats on the federal reserve board of governors the all field for the first time in two years if the senate is a blessing. president obama's latest nominee is a university of michigan professor, catherine dominguez. the white house says that her knowledge of foreign exchange issues will be welcome when monetary allah sees are considered. alan landon is also awaiting senate confirmation. the fed board of governors has seven members. scarlet: the fifth anniversary of a measure that made almost no one happy. on this date in 2010 president obama signed dodd frank reform act into law. it had fierce critics on both sides of the political aisle.

others say that it didn't go far enough. >> we need to do some fixing, when one party passes legislation virtually alone and in the case of dodd frank the affordable care act very few if any republicans were involved. it is important to revisit it. they are now looking for ways to tweak dodd frank. lawmakers in the u.s. and iran must sign off on the deal -- it calls for iran to abandon atomic weapons of they want sanctions lifted. the iranian supreme leader says that his country will not stop the proxy wars in 11 -- yemen and lebanon. secretary of state john kerry call that worrisome. kerry: all i know is

that i have to take it at face value. things can evolve that they are different. if you use the policy it's very disturbing. wha -- alix: the plan was presented to the national parliament and it was, according to, world powers who caved in the talks. president obama is thinking sean -- thinking china for helping to negotiation. unemployment rates fell in 21 states. widespread job growth and a shrinking workforce reduce the ranks of the unemployed. meanwhile, unemployment rates fell in 12 states, nebraska has the lowest job rate -- jobless rates and west virginia has the highest at 7.4%. those are your top stories. be a record5 could

year for m&a. $2 billion in acquisitions and investments haven't inc.. oncee agai -- alix: again, goldman sachs is the number one advisor globally. erik schatzker spoke with the head of m&a there earlier today. we have a good shot at 2007. the activity from the first half of the year is on pace from 2007 and it has been accelerating from $800 billion in the first quarter to one dollar trillion. -- one dollar trillion. -- $ one trillion. concerns that give us that a bubble is approaching? what are you doing to avoid those pitfalls? >> the nature of the transactions that we are seeing continue to be smart. >> didn't we think that then to? >> in 2007 a lot of the activity

was driven and fueled by the credit bubble and lots of leverage being given to companies that allow deals to happen they could not have happened previously. the receptive equity market could do smart industry transactions to help drive growth and cost savings. erik: judged by the data points alone on whether the market was hot or not, what metric say more to a bank like yourself about what's happening in the m&a business than just that? >> the thing that everyone looks at is the global table, that's what everyone pays attention to. the second metric that we look at is the number of deals above 5 billion dollars. how often are they doing deals that are significant to them.

we look at it in terms of volume and market share. the last piece that we look at are the advisor fees, people paying for the lions share of those advisories. are they paying for it? erik: marceau than they used to? >> they are up this year compared to the past. erik: i'm curious to know, when you say that, is that the total fee taken? >> total aggregates. >> is that increased due to activism? increase in a kerry is driven partially by the threat of activism. shareholders are generally more active. that is when a force companies to do things proactively or reactively. years -- earlier you said that the kinds of deals being done now feel better than 2007.

what does not feel right? >> the equity market resale activity is new. we have seen the stock prices of buyers going up. there is some risk around the execution. there has been an increasing number for the transactions ahead of time. >> they want have to see it until it gets delivered for another four or five years and are there any long-term and testers anymore? >> they have to find somewhere to put their money. are not necessarily voting with their feet and selling, they are trying to outcomes. >> when you think about dealmaking, consolidation and industries, i feel that all the biotech, health care,

pharma, are any industries immune to this? >> if you look at the pickup last year there was an game consolidation in u.s. cable that darted things off and a lot of that was across the entire health care space. that with craft and heinz, metro resources and bg shell and the big stake insurance. almost every sector has begun to see activity. we have an m&a market that was running on two cylinders and is now running on four or five. are we not getting to the point where some industries would be locked out? that is going to happen in telecom, right, pretty soon? that with health insurance being there, just last week, it's already happened in airlines.

there's already been consolidation in the airline business. what other industries look like they are running out of room to consolidate? >> there may be a deal left. what is driving the frenzy is the end game consolidation. they don't want to be the ones sitting on the sidelines. other sector rumors have continued with lots of activity here today. what? >> biotech could go on forever. scarlet: that was goldman sachs global head of m&a. alix: coming up, how much is donald trump really worth? alix: we will hear from the author of the book, "trump nation," it is difficult to tell even if you have behind-the-scenes access. i think he's worth a lot. ♪

welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." alix: we are going to get you caught up on the markets. julie hyman is looking at everything the you need to know. kind of the under the radar movers of the session. scarlet: we have been talking all day about the ibm's of the world, so i thought we could hit on one of the ones we have not been talking about as much. julie: this is a fairly new company, tag enough -- tena, which but -- tegna. it is difficult to do like for like comparisons as it was part of a larger company, but one thing that bloomberg intelligence is pointing out is that digital segment growth slowed down. this company owns career

builder, for example. thatould seem impressive it was about 85% last quarter. "bloomberg intelligence" put out more margins that shrunk when you're earlier. taking a look at how they have informed since they split up late june, we have seen kennett sharest -- gannett down. neither one of them has done fairly well. a look at another company out with earnings, the water valve company, cutting forecast for earnings and sales. says that their sales the line will continue next year. executives said they have increased concerns about valves and control businesses that the issues there are how -- are

fixable. this one is going up after earnings, up by 3%. the company earnings-per-share beat analyst estimates and that no share income will moderately increase in the next 12. that is one of the important measures for these consumer that they will see a substantial earnings boost if interest rates rise. whenis probably more but rather than if. scarlet: thank you so much for the latest, julie. alix: let's get a look at some top stories. scarlet: republican presidential field is looking a bit crowded. there are now 16 people in the race. john kasich is the latest adjoin the race. he made his beneficial earlier today. kasich: i am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support, for your efforts.

because i have decided to run for president of the united states. [cheering] k-6 --: the 63-year-old john kasich served in congress and as governor, but he may not get into the debate in his own state next one. only the top 10 will be allowed in and he is currently number 12. alix: diplomatic relationships between the u.s. and cuba are getting back to normal, but there are still very big princes to be resolved. john kerry said that for now the u.s. will not negotiate over the naval base in guantanamo bay. secretary kerry: there is no discussion at this time to alter the existing treaty or other arrangements with respect to the naval station. alix: the cuban prime minister says that it must he returned before relations can be completely normalized. scarlet: a major newspaper in an early primary state says that donald trump should quit the

presidential race. the editorial did not mince words. "the des moines register" called him "a sexist blowhard." trump is of course not apologizing for his remarks, criticizing mccain's record on veterans affairs. trump: he is the head person in washington. the head of the group that runs -- somebody is doing a bad job. its corruption. it's a massive corruption. it's a massive incompetence. the people are being treated like third class citizens. >> i cannot argue with that. scarlet: the latest poll shows trump with a double-digit lead over other presidential candidates, but the poll was done before the comments about kane. speaking of the donald, here at bloomberg we have our very own trump expert. tim o'brien. he literally wrote the book, "trump nation."

he just penned a column today that you can read online called "dear mr. trump: i am worth $10 billion to." betty liu asked him how much donald trump is really worth. no one one -- tim: really knows. i'm not sure that he knows. all i know is that the numbers on the yell yell and it goes up and down and there is reason to be skeptical. x we should oink out at mr. trump is known in legal circles for suing people. he is a litigious fellow. he sued me for $5 billion, about half of my net worth. that was early 2006. tim: -- >> why did he's to you? tim: he thought that he lowballed -- that i lowballed his net worth, which he said at the time was $200 million.

that was posited among a whole range of different acetate shins about how wealthy he might be. he thought that lobel -- lowballing his net worth to damage his reputation and business dealings. we went to court and prevailed. betty: you prevailed? tim: yes. that he: good on you. you talked about the oyo of his net worth. explain exactly the ups and downs. we depose them for two days and he said that his net worth sometimes goes up and down day to day dependent upon his own feelings. that's an interesting way to assess your wealth. your own feelings. i realized that i have feelings about my own wealth as well's -- as well. i went home less weekend and put a pen to paper. i feel that i live in a multibillion dollar home. my car is worth several billion dollars. my son's pokemon collection is worth several billion.

you, allave to ask kidding aside, as there is some comedy to this, but this is also serious business. why should people care about his net worth? why should this be an issue? tim: i don't know that it is his net worth as much as it is what he does with this. and has become a seminal possibly destructive moment in the presidential race and within the gop. i don't know that he is a serious candidate. i think that he loves being in the limelight. i think the you have serious candidates in the gop, like john kasich and others who have announced. i think that donald is here because he loves being the center of attention. the quotethe way, that you mentioned in your piece, "the figure goes up and down with the markets, even feelings, my own feelings affect my value to myself go tim: --

myself." tim: we all have feelings. ofx: of course, -- scarlet: course, lindsey graham had some harsh words for him, calling him "a jack asked." we just got a tweet from lindsey graham saying he would get a new phone after donald trump retweeted it and called him a lightweight. scarlet: still ahead on "market day"? alix: setting our sights on the middle east, we will tell you about one firms plans for saudi arabia. ♪

sachs isgoldman setting its sights on saudi arabia. what exactly has goldman sachs done here?

have applied to trade in stocks. it is not clear, but they are the second entity since being there last month when the stock exchange was one of the first non-gold countries for the first time and you were able to avoid an exchange traded fund where you were able to buy and sell them directly. it was a big chance for them beyond oil. scarlet: what kind of restrictions might there be? willem: there is certainly risk there. the war in yemen has not seemingly impacted the country too much. but there is potential for political difficulty. there is a lack of transparency there that is widely known in the investment community. they are not used to sticking to international standards when it comes to things like accounting.

things like that that goldman have to think about. risks are clear, what about the opportunities? alix: huge domestic market -- willem: huge domestic market in that region. there is huge growth potential in quite a few of the industries outside oil. is something that goldman and the other banks will be looking at. like financial services. alix: thank you some much. we appreciate your insight. i love the half-hour with garlic who, but i must go. some prices have farther to fall. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪

get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage, all of taylor swift's music videos, interviews, and more. xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. welcome backlix: to the "bloomberg market day." top stories crossing the terminal at this hour, citigroup has been ordered to pay $700

million to credit card customers over illegal practices and were for credit0 million score monitoring and rush processing of payments. customers were told that there were free trials for payments when they -- products when they were not. they said they stopped these practices in 2013. nike has given mark barker a $30 million grant to get him to stay for more than five years. been the nike ceo since 2006. the cofounder endorsed him since he became the chairman last year. shares of nike are 46% up in the last year. an outage today for apple users. itunes and the new music service were unavailable for some users earlier today. the interruption lasted more than two hours and in the meantime they released earnings after the bell and investors will have to do a little to find out how many watches were sold. watch sales will be included in the other product category.

researchers suggested that orders have fallen 90% since its debut. pop star taylor swift is taking on china, teaming up with the country's second-largest e-commerce company to sell a fashion line specifically for chinese shoppers. with the dresses, sweatshirts, and other items being sold, they will be attending a concert scheduled for shanghai in september. commodities deepen with gold leading the pack, falling in trading the most in two years. gold advancing slightly today, the real question is if the commodities plunge will continue . the head of global commodities research thinks it will. he asked lanes why with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> a lot of macro headwinds are yuang together whereas the

will be depreciating over the largest months, the two trading blocs outside the u.s. from a single currency perspective. i also think the seasonals and oil alone could take us down meaningfully into september or october. yes, i envision a few more months of commodity price weakness ahead. i recall, you have been right about oil. it could continue into september or october. give us a number, how low could it drop? francisco: a few more dollars from here. i don't think that it is going to be as bad as it was back in march. gasoline,remember holding it together today, was trading strong. down from around 220 per gallon a few weeks ago, remember back

in the winter we had gasoline trading at 20 per gallon in the wholesale markets. gasoline on the downside to drag down crude oil with it. what are these specific drivers driving prices? gold is of commodity that picks of noise from every market. you have a weaker commodity market affecting those negatively. you have a higher interest rates and a stronger u.s. dollar. to put that off you have barely any equity market volatility, which tends to be a driver for people to buy gold if you have unstable equity markets. you have an almost perfect cocktail of ingredients pressing gold prices lower. said all of that, we are at the cost of production

for many miners. we can push and lower but we will start to lose production weekly, $100 per ounce from the current levels. erik: in your research you write about a decoupling taking place inside the metals complex, which is to say that prices of tin, aluminum, lead, copper, are not moving as much in step with each other. why is that important? francisco: it tells us that we are getting to the last phase of the route. in the sense that we are now moving towards effectively supply rationing. going from a bull market led by china, where china came from almost owning none of the commodity markets to over 50% of the global market share of iron ore or's deal. -- iron ore or steel. prices are falling down to that are not being

exercised and they are forcing supply rationing. it is a cicely that destruction of supply, the rationing of supply that is creating this tour of -- correlation. because the different metals price out at different points, that's where we are, really. erik: how long is it going to take for that supply destruction to rebuild in the metals markets such that we see prices rise? francisco: i think that it all is dependent on the business cycle. we are rejecting at the house 3.9% global gdp growth next year. even though we have a lot of weakness right now because of emerging markets being kind of soft, the emerging markets will become a collapsed swing following the first fed hike with outside pressure on commodities. in september, maybe in december,

that is when we will really start tending a signals for commodities. we are very much of the view that we need to see the first fed hike. alix: that was the head of global commodities research at bank of america, speaking there and pushing commodities lower. gold prices are up today, calling for gold futures to be in fact lower. all right, we will be looking at another company making headlines at this hour. caesars, 30% on the day, 27%, i should say, announcing a preliminary agreement over restructuring with debtholders. joining me now is laura keller, who is no doubt very busy today. explain to me what is happening today we're looking at $20 theyon in debt? laura: plan to make a big splash and it is nice to wrangle them when

they have this hard time getting together for the plan. they are trying to get support for it and are saying that we would like to get out of bankruptcy in the next year. alix: who has signed on, who is a holdout? start their area laura: paulson has signed on to the plan. -- start there. laura: paulson has signed on. others have not agreed. what positions did soros and paulson wind up taking? laura: they could make sure that the parent does not go into bankruptcy. essentially the bankrupt unit is already in bankruptcy, but the parent is trying to get out. once they get out from these equity holders, they will reach the benefits. what do the holdouts do?

laura: tomorrow they have a big date coming up. it remains to be seen. do we like this plan? is it enough? are there convertible notes that they did not have before? what it might be enough for them to sign on to it. the big haircut is like getting $.30 back, that would be a windfall. of a monkey off their back in that way. thank you, laura, we appreciate the insight into caesars. coming up, republican presidential field has 60, count them, 60 entrance in the race. inlatest -- 16 entrants

the race. the latest to join is john kasich. ♪

alix: time now for look at the market. we are just a few minutes before the closing bell. we want to head over to julie hyman for the latest. julie: we thought we had greek -- greece and china behind us, we thought about the fundamental earnings, but guess what? not so hot. the dow has been the big loser of the day. various sectors within the s&p 500, you can see a lot of selling. telecoms, industrials, utilities, no big areas of green. there are some subsectors doing better but overall a lot of selling, we have had significant

and disappointing earnings. telecom, for example. verizon losing -- leading this group lower after sales drop for the year. as much as 4% in part because of the price wars going on. it is pulling down at&t and t-mobile as well. if you look at the dow and the underperformance today, the big drag on it, united technologies and ibm, united technologies has seen it biggest the climb in about four years after its spun off aerospace, otis elevators, lower market demand than anticipated. ibm, 13th straight order of sales down, quinton, 13% as well. i wanted to point out that we saw in chesapeake energy. this was having its worst three-day streak in three years. lowest since 2003 after

suspending dividends for the first time in her teen years, the second-largest natural gas producer along with oil that we don't talk about as much thomas lumping. this has presented a challenge is for chesapeake as they have tried to diversify their business towards oil in a time when they have not been doing well. i wanted to talk about gold futures. you heard alix talking about that a little while ago. gold futures still trending lower after this terrible, horrendous no good streak that gold has been on. the futures market is continuing. 1100 $1000 ounce, that is $11,001 perting -- ounce is where it gets tricky for marketing. the prophet court -- profit forecast for one company dropping from the force time in a month.

demand weakening the units for otis elevators, yesterday they read to sell their helicopter unit to lockheed martin. -- agreed to sell the helicopter unit to lockheed martin. .com plans to challenge amazon and costco with a wide array of 10 million items, there is a $50 ,illion fee per year to shop but they promise a refund if you don't say that much. the has been an nvidia -- an initial investigation into the explosion of the space act rocket last month. the strut in the liquid oxygen tank snapped, but it was made by us of higher, not space act. employees reportedly growing complacent and most of them have only known successful launches. john kasich is officially in. announcing his presidential run earlier today from his alma

mater, ohio state diversity in columbus, ohio, the sixth republican candidate to enter the race. mark is there in columbus and joins us now for more. mark, what was your biggest take >>y from the announcement? on paper he should be a very strong candidate in this race ,nd he was unorthodox speech the way he is and unorthodox politician and republican, talking a lot about social issues, social justice. he is a budget balancer, he was the chairman of the budget unity during the clinton years, but he is also a guy who has challenged the republican party to reach out more. i caught up with him after he gave his and asked him how he felt about today. governor kasich: i think that sometimes people just do not understand. some people nearly 20 years ago and have a comments about who i

am today area and mark: i'm not talking about 20 years ago. kasich: i like to i am now. everything is fine. no big gyrations. everything was good. it was really fun to deliver the talk and have so many people there. that was overwhelming. mark: you saw him there, he's an optimistic who understands his date. this is one of the most important political states in the country. the question is, in this crowded field, when donald trump dominates so much of the news, can a guy who is not well-known, can he get people to know him and like him enough to consider voting for him again in a very crowded republican field? alix: that is absolutely the question. mark, thank you so much for joining us. you don't want to miss "with all due respect" tonight. mark again with fred davis, the

media strategist for the governor's group. still ahead, what will we learn when microsoft reports earnings t a jusw minutes? coming up next. ♪

microsoft reporting earnings after the break. you mentioned a messy quarter. what does that mean? >> they will take a break right down. numbersgoing to mean all over the place. that will be one thing. we know that pc's have not been strong for the first couple of quarters. that is something to watch out for. what will happen to windows 10? if they give any kind of guidance as to the initial

reception from the developer base about it. those are a few of the things that would be watching. alix: how important is windows 10 to the overall revenue stream? anurag: very important. i think it will be one of the most important releases they have ever done, largely because they want one common platform for all devices and it is important for them to have that to increase the number of applications for their mobile devices. they really want to be a cloud company, but it really is still a pc company. where would you map their transition right now? anurag: they are one of the leading players at this point. they have done a good job over there. i would say that there are margins from that point that they haven't listed quite aggressively and over the last few years that have been paying off for a well area the question really is about the base of this

pc centric operating system. what will happen next? that is the challenge. windows 10 has the ability to solve that. we know aboutl that? will this quarter illuminate that? getting that free upgrade on the 29th of july? anurag: it will take a few more quarters to see if we are seeing adoption across the different platforms. alix: what do you expect to hear on the call? the gnocchi aag: write-down will be interesting. the acquisition is two years old? not even that. the question will be -- what is the strategy? my gut feeling is that they will be focused on mobile, they just him want to make a large portion of those devices themselves. alix: there was a recent plan unveiled to re-diversified the main unit business.

but that change the way that they unrolled the numbers? anurag: that is highly likely, but it would mean a lot more work for us to go back and change those models, but highly likely area alix: what is the number that you are going to watch? all the breakdown of all of those is this is, what does it come down to? anurag: it is very important. alix: does it back into other revenue? anurag: you can bring it in between those lines. alix: when do you expect that to be? anurag: very strong growth, probably in the high double-digit, possible triple digits. alix: good stuff. declining revenue, double-digit growth, commercial and others up $3 billion in terms of estimates. we will bring you those numbers in just a few minutes. another technology giant reporting after the bell is yahoo!. the stock is up, having plunged over 21% so far this year.

brian is in san francisco and joins me now with a preview of expecting.treet is is this going to be a good quarter or of touring quarter? brian: yahoo! is always a couple of moving parts. the core business right now appears to be relatively flat. exciting? i don't know if you would call it that. is trying tohe ceo drive a turnaround and get things moving in the right direction. even a little bit of growth would be exciting at this point. the key question, of course, will the irs allow for a tax-free's and off? will we get answers? brian: we got a little bit of that last week. they filed for the spinoff with regulatory folks. they gave it a name. look, we seed -- this thing in the fourth order.

some people read that is a good sign. remember that marissa mayer herself is standing by this idea that it's going to happen in the fourth order, that these tax problems have been addressed. we might get more, i'm sure the question will come up, for sure, but we do have some fact the .2 right now. breakthe other areas to down growth are mobile, native, and social. what kind of growth can we expect there? we will see. they have been making up a few hundred million order or so. we will see if it is enough to make up for the lag on the desk top and over businesses. revenue projections right now are looking to be down slightly. down to $1.7 billion. you know, we will see if those new businesses can drive that, but for now the stuff is really

holding down the results. alix: ads on mobile did decline from the fourth to the first. what is the risk that that will continue to decline and what does that mean for yahoo!? brian: they can both have declines there. you can look more year over year to trim line. look, yahoo! is investing a lot in the application on tablet, smart phones. new content, new water. the idea here is -- let's get the users there and then the advertisers will follow. there is still some of that transition time where people say -- what's going on? alix: talking about transition, where are we in this turnaround from marissa mayer? what kind of patients will investors have? brian: very good question. i think we were right about that , it's been three years since she started. that's always an important timeframe in these turnaround efforts. i think there are some lessons

out there about -- when is the growth really going to come? she going to have the core business do something? those are big questions for investors right now. good stuff.- alix: we are moments away from microsoft and yahoo!. thank you so much, brian, joining us from sanford discovery. much more ahead on what you missed. tech earnings coming out right here, we want to take a look at the dow, off by 175 points. , as itthat of the s&p has been really hit by ibm and united technology. we will see how we end up here on this down day. ♪

alix: where the way for the closing bell. -- we are moments away from the closing bell.

u.s. stocks falling as ibm thinks on earning and european equities and did their best rallies and 2011. joe: the question is, what did you miss? it is all about apple. the tech giant reports in 30 minutes than all eyes are on the apple watch. alix: but first we will hear from chipotle, microsoft, and go pro in a few minutes. of $50 a prices barrel. what is one key indicator that could tip prices in either direction? down bye market ending about 1%. no other industry is off as much is that the s&p is off by have a percent, and it all boils down to ibm and united technologies. joe: they were a big contributor to the dow