john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and with all due respect to boston, you were never that great a sports city anyway. kidding. ♪ on the show tonight, obama clinton, walker and obviously trump, but first, huckabee. in case you missed the news -- iran deal breitbart interview, holocaust reference -- blowback. president obama and hillary clinton both made it clear how much they stand against my cut

-- mike huckabee's reference to gas chambers. mr. obama: to the comments -- i think the comments of mr. huckabee are, i think part of just a general pattern we have seen that would be considered ridiculous if it were not so sad. mrs. clinton: this steps over the line and should be repudiated by every person of good faith and concern about the necessity to keep our political dialogue on the fact and within suitable boundaries. mark: obama repudiates, clinton repudiates, jeb bush also repudiates, saying the use of that kind of language is wrong. scott walker said he would not abuse those words but would be

much tougher. others declined to comment. huckabee, standing by his words, put out a video late today doubling down. did he go too far for his own good? john: yes. even though some republicans don't want to say it, it may have crossed the line and may have gone too far. it is outrageous on some level but what bothers me most is that it's a hypocritical thing coming from huckabee, who as recently as 2008 was giving speeches about diplomatic approaches to iran and pursuing the policy barack obama has done. mark: he often says things they get repudiated and denounced. given that they put out the video, my senses he thinks it's going to help them. the controversy, being attacked by hillary clinton and barack obama, he thinks is a good thing. john: it seems the obvious calculation going on in the wake of trump and trump's strength in iowa demonstrated this past weekend, a guy like mike huckabee not getting as much traction as you would hope.

a lot of things have happened over the last 72 hours, it all seems like an active desperation and i don't see how desperation is a good look. [bell] mark: he defended his position again on fox. we will see what happens. john: it wasn't just mike huckabee that seemed to be annoying obama today. he talked about the current inclination to dabble in the republican nomination contest. here he is going after donald trump and a sitting senator. mr. obama: when you look at what has happened with mr. trump, when he has made some of the remarks that for example challenge the heroism of mr. mccain, that arises out of a culture where those kinds of outrageous attacks have become far too commonplace and get circulated nonstop. we have a sitting senator who also happens to be running for

president suggest i'm the leading state sponsor of terrorism. these are leaders in the republican party. john: the senator who obama was alluding to there was ted cruz. he said the administration was a leading financier of terrorism. if obama keeps getting involved in the republican race, what is the effect of that on the whole contest? mark: it's good. he inspires the democratic party. as long as bill clinton is being quiet, it fills a vacuum. it appeals to some independence in a way that very few independents are. john: as long as his approval rating gets better, his role can only help hillary clinton. he's got the biggest megaphone in the world, even bigger than donald trump and it rallies the democratic base, which is important. he has the voice of authority

that helps one it comes down to hillary clinton. mark: he has passed the commander-in-chief threshold by definition. there is almost no one in the republican field who is there. the one to our closest, people like jeb bush or john kasich they are not all the way there. as long as the president has that monopoly, he has the authority. john: this part of obama is something that people have agreed with -- the rational obama, saying all you kids yelling out here, americans don't actually like that kind of politics. when obama says that, i think a lot of people say he is speaking for me. [bell] mark: on saturday in iowa donald trump attacked scott walker's record in wisconsin. walker ignored him for two days and when pressed in a fox interview, defended his record but did not hit back at trump. is turning the other cheek a good idea?

john: amazingly, i think the moment of strength -- we have discussed this many times, for scott walker, where iowa is important, i think for him it may be the right thing to do so that when trump, if he does immolate, walker is a better position to pick up the voters. mark: fighting with people in a 16 person race is complicated. i think if trump takes you on full throttle, you have to fight back. you can't just defend yourself. even if you are not worried about trump, everyone of these candidates has to bear a responsibility and say they're going to stand up to them even if they want to pick up the support. john: i have some sympathy and i think some voters have sympathy for the argument walker is making, which is i'm going to run my campaign, i'm going to say what i'm going to say, i'm not going to speak for other people to the extent possible and getting in the mud

fight with trump is a fight -- mark: trump went after aspects of mark -- of walker possible vulnerability, he even used notes. john: hillary clinton outlined her plan for climate change. more than half a billion solar panels in her first term and renewable energy in every home in 10 years. she briefly met the press and jennifer epstein asked about her position on the keystone pipeline. mrs. clinton: no other presidential candidate was secretary of state when this process started. i put together a thorough, deliberative, evidence-based process to evaluate the environmental impact and other considerations of keystone.

so i will refrain from commenting because i had a leading role in getting the process started. i think we have to let it run its course. john: putting aside the keystone innovation there, on the climate plan more broadly, good policy? we asked the same question about the tax plan. mark: it is good policy within the democratic party and more broadly, to be for solar panels and more renewables without a doubt, it puts the republicans somewhat on the defensive, but this was not a big, bold sweeping plan in dealing with carbon and i think you cannot put the keystone thing aside. bernie sanders and martin o'malley -- i don't know why she knows a lot about it she cannot take a position. john: if you are going to frame her plan -- to say i'm obama plus, you might as well go all the way. you are going to take criticism from the right for be more regulatory and more

antibusiness, so you might as well be something big and bold not something that's just a little bit more pro-environmental than obama. i would like her to be bolder if she's going to take the air -- take the arrows coming in. mark: and particularly on executive orders. president hillary clinton would certainly have speaker john maynard to deal with and she did not explain how these things are going to work. if she is president, she will have to do this. coming up, charlie black tells us his best donald trump anecdote after this word from our sponsors. ♪

♪ mark: our guest tonight has been advising republicans for many years, including ronald reagan, george h.w. bush, the other president bush and john mccain. and he won't be afraid to admit to know he knows donald trump very well.

charlie black, thank you for coming on the show. explain your relationship to mr. trump for our viewers. charlie: i've known donald trump for 30 years. my company and i represented him in a lobbying and public affairs world for almost 20 years, ending about 10 years ago. john: given that you know the man pretty well, about as well as anyone in washington, d c does, tell us your best donald trump stories. charlie: there's a lot of competition for that honor. a real quick one was he was opposing the establishment of an indian gaming casino in bridgeport, connecticut once. he testified at the hearing and when the legislator backed him into a corner about it, he took

the tack of saying the man sitting over there is not an indian. you cannot give him a casino because he doesn't look like an indian to me. [laughter] john: lots of speculation about the guy who is the front runner -- what is your best guess about where and when donald trump's pursuit for the presidency ends. as the oval office or something short of that such mark -- something short of that? charlie: he's a great businessman and a great celebrity -- he knows how to milk that and he's a great entertainer, so naturally best so naturally he is getting a lot of attention from the press. and from a lot of angry voters. but he will not be president, he will not be the nominee. he will go through a few primaries and as the other candidates get that are known and people figure out there credentials and where they stand, i think donald is likely to finish third, fourth or lower in the first few

primaries. i don't know what he will do after that but he will not yet the daily attention that he's getting now. john: charlie, it's not a criticism or a slight to say you are in good standing with the washington establishment. we hear that republican

establishmentarians are freaking out about the rest of the summer being dominated by donald trump. is there anything the republican establishment can do to stop him and shut him down? charlie: i appreciate being a member of the establishment, so i don't know the others are so that i can get with him. we are starting with the debates next month. there will be two debates and then another in september. the debates will cause the other candidates, especially the major candidates to get that are covered and better-known. i'm sure donald will be in the news but he will have a lot of competition from people who seriously have a chance to be president and we have a very good field. i am not freaked out about it. but at the same time an earlier cycles, people were freaking out about ron paul, talking about him hurting our brand, or pat buchanan hurting our brand. in the end, those guys did not hurt the brand. the eventual nominee sets the tone and defines the brand. mark: what is the craziest idea you've heard about how to deal with donald trump? charlie: i know a lot of people who think we ought to just go beg him, which is the stupidest thing you can do with donald. mark: victim to get out of the race?

-- beg him to get out of the race? why wouldn't that work? charlie: it would just prove to him he's getting a lot of attention and getting under people's skin. he's a brilliant man, great salesman, he knows how to read people and play people, so you don't want to get into a position of weakness with him. john: is there anything you know about donald trump at if it became public would prevent him from being the president of the united states? charlie: nothing. i might not know everything about him, but i know a lot. mark: who at this point would you say are the three most likely people to be the party's nominee? in order of first most likely and second most likely. charlie: we have more than three that are highly qualified to be president. if i had to guess today, i think our nominee would likely come from one of four people from jeb bush, marco rubio scott walker, or john kasich. i think there's a 95% chance of that and a 5% chance someone else could catapult into the lead and be the nominee. but it is too early to make an educated guess.

john: of the first four states that vote, which one is rubio likely to do well in? charlie: he could do well in any of them. i suspect you would have to say new hampshire or nevada, but that is guesswork. john: there's a pretty good sense of that top-tier. do you think john kasich can make his way into the top tier in the next couple of weeks or months? charlie: probably not in a couple of weeks. i don't think he will make the debate stage, but as soon as he begins to get more attention when he's campaigning, i think he is a first-tier candidate. he's extremely accomplished governor, he has experience writing a balanced budget and

serving on armed services. and he is a good campaigner. i don't mean that as a commercial for john to the disadvantage of others, but he's a good candidate. john: charlie black, thank you for coming on the show. when we return, resident polling analyst breaks down new hampshire after this. ♪

mark: joining us now is can goldstein to talk about the polls and iowa and new hampshire. in these polls, hillary clinton's unfavored ratings are three bad. what are the implications? >> her faves and and unfaves are bad and they are not terrific nationally. cnn was out in a poll with 35 or 50 underwater in terms of her favorability.

that's what a lot of recent polls have showed. the irony here is as the republicans have all of this drama in their nomination fight, this is a nomination worth having. hillary clinton's favorability is low and the other number to pay attention to and has been a surprise to me is barack obama's job approval has remained underwater, even after his good month of june, he is at 45 -- 50. john: one of the noticeable things about these polls in both iowa and new hampshire -- and this has been true in other polls, everyone's unfavorable ratings are really high. it seems like none of these people are super popular, with the exception of a couple of folks we can talk about later, but everyone is unpopular. is it a fact of partisan polarization -- has that reset

the bar on a reasonable expectation on what favorable and unfavorable should be? ken: the only people who are not underwater are people not well enough. we used to be in -- not well known enough. we used to be in a world where democrats might have favorable review of republicans or independents could like the other side. now there's very much a ceiling on these approval numbers. it's a simple algebra problem. hillary's favorable numbers -- all the democrats like her and all the republicans dislike her. it may be the case that those old models that assume someone could get 50 or 55 or 60 may not be so useful. what is the expression? 40 might be the new 50 when it comes to favorability and job approval.

mark: let's talk about another thing about polls and getting results -- spending. you know a lot about television advertising. john kasich was at zero in new hampshire and they say close to

-- spent close to $2 million on a 60-second spot, and now this poll shows him at 7%. is spending $2 million a good return on investment? is that about what you would expect? ken: for john kasich, it is a good return because he needed to get to seven to get into the conversation. it's a great social science experiment. rarely do you have television advertising air wars when there's only one person up. you have john kasich who was the only person up and we're not going to see that very much as the primaries go and we won't see it when it comes to the general election. that's at the very upper bound of the stats we like to see from advertising. mark: he was also campaigning and was in the state during part of the survey and that may have played a role. ken: if you are the only person with a megaphone, your message can get heard. mark: jumping from zero to seven is not a surprise to mark -- not a surprise? ken: it sounds high to me. as at the high range of what i would expect to see. i don't think we are going to see advertising moving any numbers 7% in the next 15 months. john: mark has a piece up right now about bernie sanders and the threat he poses to hillary clinton, which is real and substantial. can you talk about the numbers in these polls and what you can divine from them about ernie

-- bernie sanders and his prospects? ken: yes. in both of those polls, you see hillary clinton still ahead, but you see bernie sanders in significantly better shape than he was just a few months ago and also getting lots of momentum and media coverage. we will give mark of the softball, but one of the good points mark makes in his article is we have to look at the indirect effects of bernie sanders and the three of us don't expect him to be the democratic nominee and see some limits for him in the primaries that will follow, but as he puts pressure on hillary clinton, as he makes hillary clinton go farther to the left it gets back to our initial conversation -- it makes hillary clinton a less formidable general election candidate which makes that republican nomination worth having and really valuable. mark: you have a piece up now about these polls.

bloombergpolitics.com tell us what you found in there. ken: one thing i worry in virtually all of the pulling we are seeing from the media on the primary is that their samples are way too big. i don't mean the sample of people, but the target population the sample represents. in iowa, if you do the math, their sample of republicans multiplies out to 770,000 caucus-goers. but the largest caucus ever was 150,000. mark: ken goldstein will be back with john boehner getting a little emotional after this. ♪

john: we all know that john boehner is a frequently teary-eyed fellow. check out this speech he gave to the golf channel. let's just say it's golf,

jerry. golf! speaker boehner: i want

emily: market in china slides to record lows, and investment in global tech companies. ♪ i am emily chang, and this is "bloomberg west." coming up, why square decided to go public now. plus, the largest technology companies pledging to cut their