alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. alix: u.s. stocks down, treasuries fall as the chinese stock markets stabilize. joe: what did you miss. commodity collapse, the rout causes, but will it delayed the fed rate hike? alix: will they finally announced their new ceo?

first we begin with stocks, you're looking at the s&p closing below is moving day average. a solid rally. u.s. stocks gaining the most in two weeks. looking at a rally across the board. joe: and comes after the selloff. it came right after we got some ugly economic data this morning. a weak consumer confidence number, one of the biggest plunges in a wild. the market ignored it. alix: you talk about how strong this rally is. today greenhouse had a no doubt about that. he mentioned if you look at the s&p game, 88% of that was amazon, taking in account through yesterday's close. google was about 40%. apple 73%. it cannot exist on top tech alone. joe: this has been a top topic lately. the advance decline line

deteriorating, this is a big story. alix: more stocks are closing below that average. joe: an interesting data point in the terminal, we got a look at rental vacancies. is this white line on the terminal. as you can see, the number of open rent is down to its lowest in decades. this is why your rent goes up every year. here is rental cpi, the cost of rent at the cpr report. we are getting a really tight rental housing market. the available places to rent are going down, so the places that have witnessed to rent out can charge more.

alix: you have to buy? joe: the thinking is, eventually is good to get so expensive that people say they will just buy a house. alix: why oil prices could go even higher despite the rally. what you're looking at the net long position for european fruit. they are right around 214,000 contracts. that is way above the contracts for them. there has actually been a rally somewhat in those contracts over the last few weeks the idea is to him want it reverting to some type of wdi contracts and hundred thousand, you're going to see a selloff. joe: despite the fact that they are now in a bear market, there is still a lot of long to have yet to get washed out. alix: commerce they saying there could be a correction potential. even harris is a mix global picture today can be commodity rout causing. joe: what you make of this commodity collapse?

>> mainly it tells you that the markets are very sensitive to what is going on in china. we have had a slowdown in the chinese economy for more than a year now. this stock market correction we are seeing in china is making people more nervous about that. this follows a long time frame where we have extremely high commodity prices created a lot of new commodity supply. we have a high supply combined with the fading of the chinese economy. that is really the story. it is not a bigger story, it is a china story. alix: you have oil prices in the double-dip bear market. you have the 30 year treasury under 3%. do we have to talk about deflation? >> we are looking at a world of very low inflation. it is not just the u.s. and this is a global phenomenon.

what we are seeing is not just in commodity prices like energy, we are seeing it in consumer prices, import prices, because products overseas are dropping in price. there is just broad weakness in inflation. the u.s. is one of the few places where inflation is showing signs of stabilizing and picking up. alix: earlier today a bloomberg television the ups ceo told us about what he sees in the u.s. slowdown. >> there is some concern about the strength of the u.s. dollar and how it affects asked her and some other factors. it is not growing quite as fast as we were seeing earlier in it is still growing. we have had a good first half of the year domestically. we expect that to carry on. we do have a little caution about the u.s. economy. alix: some caution about the u.s. economy, but hang on for one set because twitter earnings are crossing right now. julie hyman has the latest.

julie: coming out with a gain of more than 60%. it is more than what analysts had anticipated. earnings also seven cents a share, or sense is what analysts had been anticipating on that front. even ebita coming in higher. i am also looking at the average monthly active users. and that is a 360 million. twitter is changing the way it accounts for those monthly active users a little bit. it has what it calls the fact follower to get tweets through sms or text message. they are not necessarily on smart phones but twitter is hoping they will move up to smartphones. it is not as the throw to comparable numbers to the past. apparently jack dorsey is saying that he is not satisfied with

the growth in the audience at twitter. i am seeing figure for the third quarter revenue forecast of 545 million dollars to $565 million. the midpoint of the that is below what analysts had anticipated in terms of revenue. all of that said, it looks like the shares are performing well in reaction to these numbers. i'm seeing a surge by about 15%. remember, they're coming from a very depressed level. the last time the reported their numbers back in april, it slashes forecast, and that caused the shares to tumble. they fell about 30% since the earnings report. in june we also heard about the departure of dick costolo and twitter has not reported a permanent appointment to replace him.

it has been plagued by all about. so coming into this earnings report we were seeing a stock that had been somewhat battered. but it is like that monthly active user number is important. joe: right before that we heard from the ups ceo who was talking about softness in the u.s. economy, u.s. gdp around 2.3%. how does not fit with what you are seeing? >> we started out with very weak data in the united states. for the last couple of months we saw an improvement. it is important to recognize that there are two areas of strength in the economy. first, the service sector, which by far them in a overall economy. everyone always talks about manufacturing and construction, but service sector is the dominant sector. we are hitting steady 200,000 job teens. we are getting wage growth. i think the economy is doing fine right now.

joe: tomorrow we get a fed announcement, it is not inspected to be a big one, but are you looking for anything in particular? >> as we get closer and closer to the september meeting the head is going to sound increasingly optimistic that they are hitting their growth and inflation targets. the data are steadily improving. with their doing right now is waiting to have confidence in that improvement. that is just a matter of time and decent numbers. i do think the meeting this week event will come out and say we feel a little bit better about the economy, and therefore had that september is becoming be more likely timing for a rate hike. that is when we think the fed will first hike rates. alix: what keeps you up at night? you seem relatively constructive. what stresses you? >> to the things you want to watch out for.

one is greece was never that big a deal for europe, but the crisis in europe spreads to spain or italy, had it happens in a way similar to greece where you have a populous government come in and decide to reverse all the physical off aerating, that kind of worsening of the crisis in europe could create a very big shock to global economy. it is not something i'm thinking about a lot, but it certainly keeps me up at night. the other thing is we know what kills u.s. business cycles is inflation. right now we are very low inflation. not a concern in the short run. if we go out a year or two from now and we find that we are starting to hit those inflation being limits, that is something we really have to worry about because there are two things that cause u.s. recessions. one is massive spike in oil, that is not happening now, the other is a big pickup in inflation and the fed getting tough. that is not happening now, but it is something that keeps me

awake at night. joe: ethan harris of bank of america, thank you were coming out. alix: what do the stock flows have to do with the u.s. market crash of 1929? we will see you the celebrities would be retired -- tell you the similarities when we return. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. alix: one analyst is comparing the crash of 1929 to the current selloff of the chinese stock. joe: he says chinese stocks will decline by about 14% over the next three weeks. alix: he says the trading patterns mirror the 1929 crash. the dow down from 29 to 31 in that purple line.

the decline does a little -- does look a little bit uncanny. joe: these are always fun starts to look at, even if they do not pan out. dear definitely not perfect science. alix: twitter earnings crossed just moments ago. julie hyman is looking at the numbers for us. we are seeing the stock surge in after-hours trading. joe: coming into the report very depressed. revenue up 61%. that is a bigger gain than the estimated, and real sales forecast for the full year. it looks like monthly active users of fear in his 16 million showed enough growth to please investors. just for perspective, and ongoing debate about what twitter is for.

what is the reason for the company. facebook has 1.4 billion users. as a point of comparison. we are seeing the shares move up by about 2% in the after-hours. the shares gained a lot of momentum, up 5%. we are also looking at gilead sciences. this is one of the large drug companies to not participate in the wave of m&a this year. it may not be a household name, but it you are afflicted with hepatitis c you probably have heard of them. the second quarter profits beating analyst estimates. finally, i what to look at yale which fell today after an analyst downgrade going into earnings. it looks like the declines are continuing and then some. they are cutting their forecast full year sales. alix: my next guest tweeted it

was going to be a big week for hipster economic data. >> according to george parks, this was a big week for the one off the beaten path, that most people are not aware of. thank you for coming on. you wristed the economic data listed these -- you listed these data. household formation. >> about one point 4% year-over-year gain any number of occupied housing units in united states. quarterly is not looked at very closely, but it does appear to be accelerating modestly. that is kind of exciting. one of the big news is the recession was this idea that millenial were living in their parents basement and without being able to go out and find their own place, by their own home, that was suppressing economic growth, because they cannot spend to buy a couch, a tv, a second car or whatever it

is they need to outfit the house. joe: that story is being developed on the story today? >> it is one of the things where there is a lot of nuance in it. this census is in the process of changing a sampling techniques for that series. the ball had big word upward revisions to previous quarters as well. there's a lot going on here. one thing we can say conclusively from the data is that america is are renting more and there are more independent households in the united states. alix: the other big data revision is gdp. we have significant result of a 1987. what does this tell you? >>'s people in the private sector and a couple of the fed regional research staff

developed this theory that the q1 gdp was week because of something called regional seasonality in data. they take data from a couple of different places, mash them together and outcomes are ddp estimate. all of that underlying data is seasonally adjusted. the problem might come when you have multiple seasonal adjustments were against each other or when multiple seasonable adjustments get mashed together and then are not readjusted on top of that. the bea is releasing a revision to the seasonality adjustment. it should not change in any way the level of growth that we have seen since 2012. what it will do is smooth the distribution across the course of the year. fully we do not see another wildcat negative first quarter. joe: the final number we are looking forward to is this friday's employment cost index. >> it is an alternative measure of inflation. we are looking at what it costs workers to employ their workers

-- what it costs is this is to avoid their workers. this is very different from cpi which is the price that consumers pay. but many in the fed see it as a better leading indicator of inflation. it is also a different way to look at wage growth. the chart that is up there, i hourly earnings is only growing 1% year-over-year. the eci is growing more like 2.7 2.8%, that is johnson cited street, and between industries. hopefully that is a better gauge on the accuracy of wage growth, and hopefully it accelerates further. alix: what did you have a nice? -- what keeps you up at night? >> a slowdown in the chinese real economy. we hear a lot about people worrying about stocks. the longer-term slowdown and the path versus crash is the bigger

concern, and that is trite the tax on the stock market for now. a real crash would be bad. joe: thank you for coming on. alix: using question for you. in a turbulent marketable what is a age investment that is doing surprisingly well? take a guess. the answer when we return. ♪

alix: before the break we asked you what unlikely in the is providing real protection from the stock markets up and downs. joe: vintage movie posters, if you can believe it or not.

a poster from attack of the 50 foot woman has soared and value. alix: it is said to be worth as much as $2 million, this poster from metropolis. even if you just for -- i just for inflation it is better than if you had regular cash. joe: anything not on the regular market, there has been a surge of interest in them. i was not actually surprised. alix: except for gold. after the bell twitter reported second-quarter sales that topped analyst projections. now for something you may have missed. we are joined by david kirkpatrick. let's take a look at the monthly active users coming in at 316 million.

if you strip out some of the items that have been added you are looking at growth of about 304 million. what is your take? >> i think it is not fast enough to satisfy investors. that is the simple answer. on the other hand their bottom line was better than many people expected and the revenue beat expectations. twitter is an extraordinary company with extraordinary cultural currency that is struggling to develop a business that justifies its hefty valuation. with jack dorsey at the helm this is a company that is showing more life than we had expected. this is a very good afternoon for twitter. joe: you mentioned that the user growth is still not impressive enough for wall street. but they did beat on the financial numbers. are they doing a better job of

monetizing the user base? >> this is a company that no one knew how they are going to make any money and they will have $2 billion in revenue. they hoped their estimates of what they're a revenue would be. that is extremely impressive from a growth point of view. but the problem is they have a market cap that is somewhere closing in on $25 billion. they are losing money. they have huge amounts of stock compensation they have to deal with every quarter. like i said before, it is amazing no news event in politics or entertainment happens anymore without twitter being part of the story. there has to be a way to monetize that further than they have. i think they are ultimately a media distribution platform. you look at their new product acquisition, whether it is fine or periscope, or the new think they are working on that aggregates information, i think they are working towards the very interesting businesses down

the road. it is still pretty pricy based on the results of the moment. alix: of almost 6% after hours. is this report and of to shake off the monkey on its back over the last several months? >> not really. the key will be who today announces the new ceo. if it is someone the market likes, it will go up. jack dorsey is a good caretaker right now, but it is a caretaker government. it is not a regime that is going to be capable of espousing a vision for the long-term. this company needs a fundamentally new vision for the long term. until we see that i do nothing the market is going to get off the back. joe: you are for joining us. we will be right back. ♪

alix: do not miss this. exxon mobil earnings out tomorrow morning. he only thing you need to know is inside my terminal, down stream revenue, margins are awesome. this is what could help them make a killing. joe: south african unemployment rates come out tomorrow.

they are in the midst of two negative things commodity collapse and their emerging markets weakness. that will be an interesting number to watch. thank you for watching. alix: have a wonderful afternoon. ♪

♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." rose: a national correspondent who writes about african-american identity and racism in the united states is here. his cover story, "the case for reparations" last june sparked debate. i am pleased to have him at this table for the first time. welcome. coates: thanks so much. rose:it