mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to jon stewart, have you been making secret trips to visit barack obama at the white house? both: god! ♪ john: happy national donald trump day. on the trump show today, trump and trump. but first, morgan freeman. a video to support the run deal. like america's actual relationship, the video was long, not funny and slightly

awkward. >> i love playing frisbee be with my sons. >> i love to see my grandkids smiled. >> we could be denying the moments that make our life worth living. >> why? >> because we would be dead. >> super dead. >> like totally fried by a major nuclear bomb debt. >> the frisbee will be melted. >> holy -- ! >> yes, it's me. queen noor from jordan. >> the agreement currently on the table is the best way to ensure iran does not build a bomb. john: meanwhile in a new poll, 50% of americans disagree with the people in that ad and say congress should reject the deal. today, secretary of state john kerry told the house foreign affairs committee that the idea

of reaching a better deal is a unicorn fantasy. mark, who is at this moment, winning the political battle over the approval of the iran deal? mark: the cnn poll notwithstanding, the president side is winning. they had sandy levin today, he came out, we have chuck schumer, eventually come out for. the ad wars are underway. but in the end, the people who don't want to have the deal don't have votes. john: it is going to be ugly and. and a lot of money spent. in the end, we are going to end up with partisan division. democrats on the president side, republicans on the opposite side. there will not be enough democratic defections to derail the deal. i think that is how it will come down. democrats were going to reserve judgment for a while, but in the end they will be with obama. mark: and the potential release

of the prisoner helps the president. it is a clever card to play, but he does not need it. the argument carrying weight with a lot of democrats is one of the strongest the president makes -- sanctions will not hold. [bell] john: and what about power alternative investment alternative? mark: jeb is campaigning like a general election candidate. langley is talking about the web of civility in politics and rising above the donald trump fray. jeb bush has also been trying to connect with hispanic voters. in an interview with telemundo he did his best to relate to hispanic voters, and part by speaking spanish. jeb bush: [speaking spanish]

mark: trying to rise above donald trump speaking spanish, is this the way to win? john: it is the way to win for him, but maybe not other candidates. he had to the guy a lot of credit. he said, i'm willing to lose the nomination in order to win the general election. those are issues, ways of presenting issues, and the authenticity talking about his run, that is the way a nominee speaks. whether it will play for him or not, that is the card.

the hand he is dealt. mark: and he has $100 million in the bank. reports that the super pac held back is true. you will see a lot more money. he is coming off as the most presidential. republicans, since reagan, have nominated the most electable conservative, establishment candidate. that remains jeb bush. john: i also think that is much more effective. i also like lindsey graham calling donald trump a jackass. that is plain-spoken. that is nice. but the actual attacks are not the best way to refute donald trump. the best way is that kind of implicit message. mark: adults win. [bell] john: soon we will talk about how much of the aforementioned donald trump is really worth but before that, he is about to just having no other candidate would ever do or could ever do. especially with the first debate around the corner. tomorrow, he is to fly on his own private plane to a golf course that he owns, and scotland. a.k.a., trump turnbury, for the women's open. he says he spent half his time on business and have his time running for president.

will it be out of sight and out of mind, or will that man be able to continue to dominate the presidential debate even from caledonia? mark: can you pick up a foreign policy credential if you are not around? one call from the today show and he can dominate the news cycle anytime. as long as he's worse than the polls, it doesn't matter where he is on the planet. the thing amongst the many that people underestimate is, he gets that. john: go back to the premise of the question. it is the moment when the national polls are going to be conducted, that is going to use to decide who is going to be on the main stage. i know he's confident. but no other candidate with think of absent kick from america at the moment -- absent king himself from america at the moment where you have to make your place at the debate. he is so confident in his place in that stage, that he does not care. mark: it is unusual for the candidate with the most money to be the candidate who can most easily get earned media. does not happen a lot. it's unusual. president obama has been in

africa since friday. in that time, he met with a girl named lucy, he hung out with a farmer, took a picture with his traveling press, and danced a little bit in kenya. and he said this just before jetting home. president obama: i love my work. but under our constitution, i cannot run again. [applause] [laughter] i actually think i'm a pretty good president. i think if i ran, i could win. but i can't.

[laughter] mark: file the standards for presidential trips, how did this go? john: mark: i think it was ok. a little bit unsatisfying. this would be a historic trip. the place of his forbearers, did not get the kind of attention. he did do a few things, getting rights in africa. but the failures of policy on africa and his administration have been glaring. i did not think he did anything to counteract that. mark: totally disagree. he's making a late push, but the coverage i saw was extremely good. and he did something hard to do. this trip would never get a lot of attention in the united states. he made news on things he cared about, including pushing back on republicans, from africa. the white house scheduled it very smartly. it was very well put together

and executed. in country, in the region and back here at home. mark: i'm sure he got a lot of attention in africa. john: -- i'm sure he got a lot of attention in africa. but you have to elevate the issue. you have to do it more than this. more than this president has done in his first term. up next, how much is donald trump actually really actually worth? we did the math. we will interrogate that guy after these words. ♪

john: mr. donald trump says he is worth more than $10 billion. our guest has a slightly different take. mark: caleb joins us. he took the escalator here. why do the numbers differ? guest: we come to $2.9 billion. a lot of money. two big differences between our valuations.

he gives himself $3.3 billion for his brand, brand development and licensing. we don't treat that as its own line item. the other big thing is golf courses. he values those that $2 billion. we get a little yet less than $600 million. john: a golf course doesn't really have a value unless you sell it, right? guest: absolutely. mark: how did you appraise the value as a compared to how he did? guest: when doing this task, he

disclosed revenue figures for each courses and his sec disclosure to the government. we still don't know the exact cost structure, but on a revenue basis compared to courses owned by publicly traded firms -- mark: is that the only thing that determines the value of a course? even with the same revenue could be worth more if he sold it? guest: absolutely, and we do. we spoke to experts who say

there is a real premium for his brand. his name means a lot. the courses are very fun to play, well-designed, very well manicured. we look at identifying what comparable courses would be good, we picked the best ones and most generous multiples available. john: i want to stay with the name thing. it seems the biggest disparity between how trump values himself and how the rest of the world does, is the question of brand valuation. the name itself. i don't think anybody thinks you can do this in a precise way. i don't think anybody thinks brands are worth nothing. without getting too shady about it, how do you evaluate the value of a brand? guest: another benefit we had with the disclosure, we get to see all the companies, many of which are bank accounts for accepting licensing revenue, and royalty revenue for these different books, and deals for buildings around the world. we can get an idea of the cash flow coming in specifically from those. given the minimums and maximums, 32-50 $5 million on that alone. john: so is he just making that up? guest: we don't know what his methodology is. certainly it would probably have to include more than that royalties. mark: i'm told by one source he is an american-made abacus. [laughter] guest: it's generally understood by hand that his

name and hotel rooms at higher prices. mark: seems to be true. guest: people around the world believe that. on the context of the presidential race, and then, there is a voyeuristic interest in whether it is 3, 4, 5 or 11. mark: but what matters is how liquid he is. what is the range and what counts as a discrepancy? guest: the range in his disclosures in terms of cash position was at a minimum, $70 million at the maximum, $300 million. that is what we give him because he has said many times that he has that much liquid. mark: what not liquid assets could he convert? guest: he's marquee properties he has all of these big buildings that if ever he needed to take a mortgage out, he has the ability. mark: and if you look at his wealth as you estimate it, and liquidity, how does he compared

to most billionaires? guest: about 10% liquid, that's right about what he has. john: how cooperated with donald trump in terms of the recording the story? guest: when we first reached out to him and his people, they invited us over and we had an initial conversation. once we started talking, about our numbers as opposed to the ones they released in connection with the announcement of his presidency the conversation stopped. john: just cut you off? guest: we had initial story on june 16, and we did not have comment beyond the conversation. mark: was there something they pointed out where you had a spirited dispute with them? guest: it was always debate about that topline number. we never got to have conversations about occupancy rates, and income margin or anything like that i would help us evaluate their numbers beyond $3.3 billion for a brand. mark: he just sold an apartment

for $22 billion, but his daughter said that was about getting more liquid for the campaign. does he have a lot of assets like that? guest: at 502 park avenue, he has, more than 20 smaller old units that could be deployed. john: in that price range? guest: not all of them. it was a full floor unit. they are collectively $200 million. mark: caleb has his own american-made abacus. thank you very much. when we come back, millenial millenial. after this word from our sponsors. ♪

♪ >> i want to speak to the millenials. >> millenial. >> millenial. >> millenial. mark: welcome back.

we are joined by an actual millenial, and a pollster. she is a republican and has written a new book. thank you for coming. what are the misconceptions that millenial had in general about republicans? guest: when you talk to them they say, i think they are of the past. they are old-fashioned, not up to the times, not as tech savvy. they are not as good at things like race and diversity. they are not socially progressive. they don't view republicans as being in tune with the generation. mark: is that totally a misconception? you could argue to some extent there is truth. guest: i try to that republicans have not done themselves any favors. republicans have made the same arguments for the last few decades. many of them fall flat with the new generation, that gets information in a new way and trust different sources. they have a different value set. i don't think republicans need to take everything they believe in, but they need to figure out how their policy ideas and principles can be applied in the 21st century problems.

mark: give me a concrete example. guest: uber for instance, the private sector came in and solve a problem that public transportation was not working very well for. the markets, solving a problem providing better services, and doing it with efficiency. republicans should talk about this as a success story. mark: let's take off our favorite do then don't about how republicans should reach out. guest: do, make sure you are trying to reach them where they are at. a lot of republicans focus on big, broadcast tv. that is the campaign budget. but young people are not watching the networks. they are getting their news from digital sources, social media. make sure you are making that a priority. mark: give me a don't. guest: don't just talk about shrinking government.

i have talked about the concept of a government in focus groups, and young people don't know what that means as a term. in politics, we know it is shorthand for shrinking bureaucracy, but shrinking government is not an end in and of itself. mark: "the government" could be a band name. i will give you a list and you tell me in one sentence, where is the opening for the republicans in that area. candy crush. guest: advertising opportunities. mark: education. guest: focus on disrupting the status quo of what higher education looks like. let people get skills anyway. mark: republican opportunity to reach millenial with snapchat. guest: be authentic, be funny, show them that you're not the monster that the media or trays republicans that. mark: justice reform. guest: use this as an opportunity to show you understand we have not yet achieved racial equality and we need to do more we are allowing

equality to work better. mark: marriage equality. guest: to say, the supreme court has ruled. that is the law. let's take a look at how we can be respectful and not have this become the political hot but it -- hot button it has always been. mark: a lot of conservatives care about foreign policy. is that an opportunity to reach millenials? guest: i think it is. i tried to shy away from strong pronouncements in the polls, because it can change in the blink of an eye. but the older millenials, who are more hesitant about robust american engagement overseas they remember the iraq war. the younger ones are coming and age in an era of isis, and are feeling under seige and threatened. they are more in favor of a robust and a bigger military and more foreign engagement. mark: the book is called, "the

selfie vote." thank you for joining us. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: it is hot out there. it looked like the heat is getting to some of the presidential candidates, who are doing weird things to get noticed. take a look. ♪ >> how do you walk in those shoes? >> he's a war hero because he was captured. i like people who were not captured. >> he is so naive he would trust the iranians, and take

the israelis and basically march them to the door of the oven. >> i wrote the number down. i don't know if it's the right number. let's try it. 202 -- >> and always twirling swirling for freedom. mark: three theories. it is hot, a lot of copycats and also with so much it out in american life, mr. trump sets the pace. john: i look at the polls and you have, trump, bush, walker, rubio, paul, probably going to make the debate. but then you go to the bubble.

christie, kasick, bobby jindal carly fiorina. some of them might be trying to get attention to boost numbers to get on the debate stage. mark: much has been made on the notion of john kasich not getting on the debate. his new hampshire numbers have moved up. it will be fascinating to the weather he moves enough to have a chance. john: for the first time he is now, and the average, at 10. perry has slipped. if john kasich keeps on, he can go above. mark: i think a lot of candidates will be told by advisors, be serious, ignore the carnival. john: do you think they will be anybody who tries to take a big swing at donald trump? mark: they will all be poised with one-liners. donald, is that what you said

when you are giving money to hillary? with sadness and anger. standards advisory joins us tomorrow. remember, this show is on twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00. until tomorrow, thank you for watching. sayonara. ♪

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