how the ceo killed off a rally after some straight talk. it is decision day, spinouts interest rates decisions. a economist says no lift off today, but watch for signals about september. i will be breaking that down over the next 60 minutes. ahead of the open, futures are higher. dax futures up also well. the to the early new caroline hyde. caroline: it is meant to be another green day at a 1% gain in europe and the united states. we are seeing earnings in the u.s., that is keeping up the smiles on investors faces. in europe, the m&a wave has gotten their attention and driven some optimism. china is still volatile.

cap 40 up .5%. let's have a look at your commodity space. this is where the route has really been. we see copper driving higher spending much of that fear about tiny slowdowns. maybe just the time we've seen enough of a selloff now. time to get back into commodities. up we go in terms of copper. oil continuing on its downward trajectory. this is of course, in a bear market. all are downward will that play into the u.s.'s decision later today? you have china continuing to slow its -- show its slowdown.

shakes it off, and you look at total. it is the second biggest oil player in eour -- europe manages to keep pretty flat. why? how is ths tock dr -- this stock at driving higher? that has gotten far more profitable. they are bringing more oil out of the ground. therefore t they are weathering that storm. copper has been on a downward straight. off by .25%. first-half copper down, gold output down

this is all about delayed commissioning. meanwhile, i leave you with barclays. still looking to make many a change over tehre. we understand they will be speeding up the rate of cuts. many people liking the sign of things at barclays. jonathan: thank you, google talk about that in about 10 minutes time. a novelty in asia, the shanghai composite. >> it is a bit of a novel they. we do like to see green on the screen. you mentioned a big rise coming today. that is the first time we have seen asian stocks higher in six sessions. the composite looks like it will close high, a wild day on the

composite. at one point it was a negative territory. the hong kong index adding to yesterday's gains up by .5%. just really a is up by .75% japan in the nikkei is down by .1%. i want to take you into the actual shanghai composite, as i mentioned it was another wild the day. it will close higher, some particularly good movement coming there. technology stocks up by 6% and industrials were leading the way. still a little bit of weakness because of those lower oil prices, but a much better look in asia here. which of the first gain in four

sessions for the shanghai markets. anna: thank you very much. what update you on a move in the fx market. what you listen your screen is a stronger russian ruble this morning. the russian central bank has halted operations to replenish fx and gold reserves to increase volatility of a domestic fx market. they hope that if we see, a stronger ruble against the dollar this morning. what probably matters even more two dollars/ruble is crude. i want to talk about oil right now. bp missing expectations but stat oil was a beat, total crushed numbers this morning. they posted a better than expected profit after a surge.

how year is with us -- javier is with us. a ton of earnings this morning i've never been more impressed with the prophets light of my life. javier: total made the same money they made a year ago, and the price of oil was $100 now is about 55 dollars. that is what total was able to do. the integrated more big oil. they have a big production unit. this also big refineries. those refineries are a cash cow right now that are making a lot of money. jonathan: when a dark to analysts, they always flag total as the one that will be able to manage this. going forward, when i see bp,

doubling low in terms of refining margins, can total repeat this? >> for the last six months ceos have been telling people not to expect refineries to last. but it has been lasting. even here in europe, we have demand for diesel and gasoline were tracked for many years. now the economies of doing better, people are driving more and it is cheaper. easy the gasoline here in london at 1.1 euros per liter. that is good news for total when you are refinery. jonathan: as i look at total, i look at a business that seems to be managing a collapsing price. >> it is the least ugly of a very ugly environment. margins are looking long-term

it is really all about the direction of an oil price. a strong beginning of the year for europe might not necessarily turn into a strong second half of the year. there are challenges with the european consumers. you probably will never see a combination of europe going as strongly an oil spreading of support to consumers. that is a binary issue. then everybody adjusts to that. ultimately, i don't think it is great is the number suggest. jonathan: you look at some of these makers, as the months progressed, and which the price of crude look sillier and sillier and seemingly is not rebounding who has the biggest base of cost that they can keep

cutting? when you look at these companies, who is in a better position? javier: exxon has a pile of money. they can cut costs. they will go back to the drawing board. they want to do it, but they have to do it by 10. shell will be also there. let's not forget about total. they are doing something other makers are not doing. that was the former ceo who died in a plane accident earlier in the year. he bet on abu dhabi/ that is bringing in

production. i would say exxon, shel, and total of the best to improve are now want. jonathan: we talk, dark about mining, if you look at the extraction business, is it all hands off? or something you like? pau: in terms of distress, opportunities will arise. having said that, but we look, a lot more attractive opportunities are out there. they are certainly in the valuations. ultimately, they're relatively immune to the price of oil because they only care about how much oil gets through the pipes. that is the one that is offering attractive points. jonathan: if i go to group

ranked returns, basic resources does my screen that the same? javier: your screen will look even redder. jonathan: thank you very much for speaking with us this morning. an impressive earnings decline, i never thought i would say that. after the break, it is not over for big oil. bg exxon and chevron, we will be covering those. more earnings across europe. i will break up barclays earnings after the break. jack dorsey talks down twitter. he kills a stock pot. his take on the result. signaling september, we take a look at why today will be all about what happens to bang months from now. ♪

jonathan: welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's check out the top stories this morning. twitter reported quarter sales but the rather was short lived after the twitter conference call. executives told investors they have a lot of work to do which are not expect great progress anytime soon. shares down 11% in trading.

bickering operating income surged to 1.4 billion euros. europe's second-biggest carmaker sold more cut the higher prices. volkswagen reported second quarter profit. bw says deliveries will be on the level of last year due to challenging market in russia. earnings season is in. weighing in europe. it was a beat for buyer which reported second-quarter earnings up. let's break down the numbers and with the ceo of joins us live from the company's headquarters. a solid set of numbers. what stood out as a negative was a tweet to the full revenue.

can you talk about that? >> it was really just a tweak based on two factors. we announced we are selling o diabetesr -- our diabetes care medicine. the euro's got no little stronger compared to the dollar. we are staying on guidance with anything that is dealing with the operational performance of the company. jonathan: just his luck but fx or the quick, what are your basic assumptions particularly on the euro? marijn: what we do is that we are not a fervency gas foreign currency traders. -- we are not a foreign currency trader. with that rate, we are planning the rest of the year

it is the best we can do. if there is a need for an adjustment, we do so. it was relatively minor in the second quarter. anna: believe me, even the pros find it difficult with the fx market. you have been incredibly busy. if i look at the realignment, is it done? marijn: well never say never, but we have indeed done a lot. the most important thing is that we are a true livesize company. every business we has cells molecules to improve lives. that business model is very strong. we're very good opportunities for further growth. of course, we go to make the materials and independent

companies that will happen relatively soon before the middle of next year at the latest. that will then come clean to the transition to being 100% life science company. jonathan: on the material side, the target was the middle of next year. you said it could happen before. when i look at performance, it is doing well. if i was the ceo, i looking at that unit right now. at the committee we could go early. is there a temptation to go early? marijn: what we are guiding is the middle of next year at the latest. and a tiny the latest to can also be earlier. jonathan: 2015 there's a good chance? marijn: you are right the performance is very good.

we've seen material growth, and more demand. that helps developer manufacturing units. than the lower oil prices helping the margins for us because we lower costs. we are in a nice situation at the moment. we had a very good second quarter. jonathan: let's talk about the chemicals business. a lot of people are talking about consolidation. do you think your company could be a part of that consolidation process? marijn: well, it is hard to say at the moment. it is hard for me to comment on it because it is a relatively small industry. a lot of companies have partnerships, and crosslicensing deals with each other. i cannot make a lot of comments on industry structure. what i can say is that it is a very good and important industry and what is happening is the

world used to be divided between companies focused on seed technology and on chemical technology like herbicides fungicides insecticides. these will help plants once they grow. more and more these capabilities are being merged from a technical point of view. that is going to lead to this merging of technologies and some restructuring in the industry. jonathan: when i look at the material side, you won't give me the scoop of you go 2015. so i ask if monsanto's bid goes through, do you see a partnership there? marijn: with whom> jonathan: monsanto.

marijn: we have partnerships with months and of already. this industry is so small, but different companies have cross licensed in the really cannot comment on ideas with any of these partners. that would set up a set of rumors that i'm really not appropriate at this point in time. i would rather not comment. jonathan: thank you very much. we appreciate your time. that is one of the big earnings of stories this morning. the other stories barclays they meet estimate as the company's chairman says he will step up the pace of cuts. judy joins us now for more and pamela is still with us. julia, the highlights first. julia: beaking down the ib numbers, they have more profit

in the ib because they reduced expenses. macro is up 10%, equities are down. overall, they're coming flat in the overall group, but there is a higher profit because of the expense cuts. jonathan: when i said them with the chairman, it was clear to me he did not want the consumer banking guy he wanted the gothic of the to the hole bank. -- a guy that could look at the whole bank. does it look good against which bank -- against which bank. julia: if you are an employee, i think you just want to know what it we going to stay in? whatever going to focus on? i think mcfarland understands the need to speed this up.

you will need productivity from your employees. jonathan: the strategy of european banks, protect about the minors and a couple of them in the energy sector. when i look at the banks which ones are the least ugly in europe? a lot are suffering from identity crises. when you look at the european banks to any take a fancy? pau: some don't only have europe as a area of influence. some do have significant things as that of europe. the problem with that is that with the stock side of this is that as you should just now the ratios are increasing. that is a good thing because it means for the stability, it is not a good thing when you talk about the return on equity. i think that the opportunity in european banks is probably at the high-security stage, at the

subordinated debt of financial debt. you are capturing if the cosmetic takes place at the same time you're seeing a yield in an environment where profitability has to come down. in the u.s. situation it will be different. credit is flowing over there. jonathan: when i went to the earnings, what stood out was the lack of detail. when will we get the numbers? how many jobs are you going to cut? you have a two digit plan, but we want to numbers. julia: i don't know. i think that is what everyone is waiting for. your question is what i don't have a answer to. jonathan: brutally honest after the break. we talk about the federal

reserve. this is what a couple of our guests have been saying. >> i do think of the meeting this week the fed will say we feel better about the economy, and therefore can't that september is becoming a more likely time for a rate hike will stop. jonathan: that was even harris. plenty of more voices on bloomberg tv coming up. we will do that. what will it take for the federal reserve to capitulate on any hike in 2015? 25 minutes until the trading session. let's bring of the equity market trading session. up by .7%. 46 points higher, the dax benchmark. we were up a half of 1%. after a two-day loss would make

a comeback this morning on the chinese benchmark. which of the board, but the fx markets. sterling cable against the pound, it is a weaker pound against this this morning. it is a stronger dollar story. a 10 year german yield up. brent crude down more than 20%. we travel south by another .8%. there are the big market moves. the federal reserve decision, we do that after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back, we're live from the city of london and bloomberg's european headquarters. 30 minutes until the trading day. these are things are shaping up. we are shaping up. we're up 9/10 of 1%. peugeot is one of the big movers this morning. carolina break up back. believe it or not, the shanghai composite closed the day in the green. wednesday we closed higher by almost 3.5%. check the boards really quickly, a weaker euro and stronger dollar this morning. what you find this morning?

a stronger dollar, we count down to that here. but now we live the stock and bring you the big stock movement with caroline hyde. caroline: so many earnings. perhaps ones you had not kept her eyes on. some smaller stocks, but moving nonetheless. stiller numbers coming out of right move. they raised their dividends, the share of traffic they're dominating the property websites in the u.k. how much? they get 82% of that market. their widening that lead of the number two player. man group as well, you know what, it is the world's largest publicly traded hedge fund. profit up 89% for this

particular company. the performance fees are where it is at. but, there is still net outflows. this is slightly skewed of what happened in japan. money coming out, look, this is what people are taking about that money. submit to keep your eye on people are very impressed by the profitability of man group. oil trading once again falling. even the total was able to weather the storm, others aren't. saipem this is a company falling by a percent. -- 8%. they're losing jobs because of the concern. much bigger than have been expected, wheezing almost one billion euros wiped off leading

to a net loss. the ceo is saying further falls resulted in major disruption which is not likely to be reversed in the short to medium term. jonathan: always a problem. the big one today is decision day for the fed as a wraps up its two-day meeting in washington d.c. will the decision be to signal september as the time when it hikes rates? >> what was striking about her testimony was that she said the economy needs higher interest rates. >> i think it is about 40% priced for a symptom a rate hike. >> it is becoming more likely time for a rate hike. >> they are not telling you they are not going to raise. >> the fed has run out of gas.

janice knows that. >> the fed is in a little bit of a quandary. yellen likes to say every meeting is live. it is a bit of a stretch. i think they're telegraphing a pace that is rate hikes a year. jonathan: there are some of the interviews we have had the last 24 hours on the federal reserve decision today. let's get another voice. a he is manage 4 billion u.s. dollars in assets. pau, we do the should they are shouldn't they in a while. it would be a brave man to move tonight. pau: let's imagine wer are now in september.

greece is out of the problems so we can't blame europeans anymore. we now have to look at our job markets. we will have seen additional confirmation that unemployment keeps stalling, and there is a steady creation of jobs, and that the fourth dissipation rate -- force participation rate identified as a lead on wages. that probably does not move much. bottom line, by september, yellen will have nowhere to hide and probably would like to break the ice and pay even more attention to the guidance message. i think that is probably what concerns the fed the most. making for the market understands. any rate hike would be then contingent on what the economy

does. jonathan: ultimately, the only the future rate hikes. we have to deal with the here and now. when you have not hike interest rates in 2006 the first move matters. no matter how much they want you to look at the future path. use a september, should they? pau: in a way, they should. you are seeing private sector get to 2.5%. historically, additional tightening of the labor markets has had a substantial increases in wages. you don't really want to give the impression that you are behind the curve. there was more than likely that the second half of the year will be tougher consumers. jonathan: maybe that they missed

the whole recovery in its entirety already. when you look at retail sales despite the huge drop in oil prices, this seems to go into the pockets of consumers, they are not spending it at shops. they missed the window? pau: i don't think so. in a way, the recovery has been subdued. historically, it takes 69 months for the consumers to realize that what happened last month is still the case. i still have lower oil prices. consumers are skeptical. i think they are aware of the fact that it does take some time for consumers to react. they will fully realize that the pretty high savings rate americans have at the moment is not sustainable.

it just doesn't make much sense. jonathan: it is my job to ask questions and to play devil's advocate. yesterday, i was looking at a chart, not much happening in the last five years. in the ecb and federal reserve, when i look through that chart, you see these moves. you read the statement, they hike interest rates of oblivious to what is around the corner. you go to september, what are the odds that they have to cut again in the next 12 months? pau: that would be a worst case scenario. an environment in which you have a central bank that loses credibility would be one in which decisions are very difficult. i to believe, and do believe, that the probability of that happening in the next 12 months would not happen.

jonathan: when you look at the future, the rate path will be shallow, let's play the other game. since 2013, we are further poorer story after horror story of what this rate hike cycle would mean for the dollar and debt. we cite tantrum. we're seeing tension but have not seen this huge horror story. do you see that playing out? pau: i don't think so. it has been telegraphed. you look at bond space. we have had very little influence since 2013. it is been almost two years, in a way the markets have reflected that. the last thing you want to do is to bid the margins.

i don't expect for a crisis to happen or that maybe the u.s. would go into a scenario. i don't think that markets are going to go through a temper tantrum 2.0. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. still to come, troubles atwitter. the stock falls after the ceo gets honest. twitter executives talk down their own stocks. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. 10 to get you update a bloomberg's top stories. the greek stock market is one step closer to reopening. the ecb up -- approved proposals. the central bank is in form of the responsible, policymakers and greece were concerned that a reopening could worsen the liquidity position. but the trading may resume by friday with restrictions on the use of money. barclays reported a slight second quarter result, they posted a profit of 1.5 billion

pounds. chairman john mcfarland pledged to stretch the pace of the bank as it said it cites on more money to cover the cost. and u.k. homebuilders taking a report today at 12% jump in first-half profit. its performance was strong. i imagine there might be more than that. the ceo spoke to bloomberg about the bank of england raising rates. >> during the cycle, people were signaling. actually when mark carney talk about future interest rates right -- hikes, this is what he was looking for. that is a healthy thing. jonathan: it is that, i am told. thank you for that.

better-than-expected second-quarter revenues, but it fell during the earning call amidst concerns about growth. >> it has not yet had a meaningful impact on growth. this is an typical, -- this is unacceptable, and we are not happy about it. we need to do three things, one we need to ensure a more disciplined execution, two, we did simple five-hour service, three we need to better communicate ever value. jonathan: the stock is done by minus six .6%. investors were initially happy n has the details on how happy they are post jack dorsey. caroline: initially, euphoria. it beat its estimates they pulled and 61% gain in revenue.

suddenly the shares shot up more than 11% then it comes hurtling back down because reality bites. we're from jack dorsey, very candid, very clear. both of them saying user growth has stalled. 360 million users, compare that to facebook which is 1.4 billion. this is how the competition is so stiff. will jack dorsey stay? with the quest -- quit? with the handed over from someone outside? no updates whatsoever. we have no clarity of leadership. they say they have to turn this around, this is why we saw such a turbulent ride on the share price after hours.

it comes crashing down, this is clearly a roller coaster ride. how can we see through to the future? we are starting to see the realization that they need to get a mass-market. you and i use twitter, but many people claim it is just journalists and celebrities. the mass-market is not there. how do you reach out? you get a marketing campaign. how do you do that if you have no marketing chief? you also have to focus on new products. lure in the advertisers project lightning is the only one there using. get people engaged while you're watching television. meanwhile employees are leaving in this turbulence. we saw two product executives quit yesterday. how do they steady this? while we see the turbulence in

twitter, what about facebook? that comes a later tonight, in fact. shares set to rise, and be a pretty good second quarter. we have to 1.47 5 billion users across the world. a dominant force when you have that many people using. many using it per day that is strong say analysts. you expect higher monetization. you are starting to see instagram putting in ads going forward. we expect big things from facebook. jonathan: that is the social networking wrap. let's move on to the auto and truck but vw. they lower their sales forecasts

, hans nichols has an watching the story. give us the details. hans: it is not as russia and south america, it is also china. when vw looks at the overall global image, they're not encouraged. especially when you look at how the sales in china -- audi sales in china. from a modest growth to flat. they are keeping a close watch on macroeconomic trends. especially in the chinese brazilian, and russian markets. they are executing, especially at the volkswagen brand. they saw profitability increase up to 2.2%. their goal is 6%, so they have quite a bit of road to travel. overall profitability was down just a little bit, but there was a clear increase to 4.9 billion

euros. that was a beat in terms of what analysts expected. overall, most of this growth is being driven by luxury. 2/3 comes from porsche and audi. it is clearly driving growth. that is why they are concerned about china. they scaled their goal back. in may we saw the first decline in audi sales in china. we are waiting to see what the big decline is really like. that is a key question not just for volkswagen, but all the luxury brands. what will they do about the selloff in china? jonathan: hans nichols, great work breaking that down. 1.65% lower this morning.

we focus on the federal reserve. we take a look at why yellen is focused on the market is what you need to watch. ♪

>> i do think at the meeting this week the fed will say we feel a little bit better about the economy, and therefore hints that september is becoming a more likely time for a rate hike. that is when we think the first

hike will happen. jonathan: that was bank of america's ethan harris. it is all about september, he says. manus, in the show the consumer confidence numbers are not pretty. what is the story? manus: i think they still want to normalize. reputation is a very hard thing to earn and a very easy thing to lose. with that in mind, credibility in the federal reserve rests in the power to raise rates by 25 basis points. if they do, fine. change them jonathan: when i look at the earnings this morning, the one that set out to me with only

2.1%. given what is happened in the commodity market, is that quite remarkable? manus: think about what total dead, this came through -- total did, they produced $3 billion this time lester. have -- last year. he is a vice chair and rothschild. he has his bankers hat on, we know he is doing that. he was formally a ceo, we get his take on what is happening with the dividends, and total. and we will catch up with the ceo af peugeot so we see what he has to say. autos are one of the second

worst-performing industries in this quarter. however, they had their triumphant moment last year. what else can happen to peugeot? jonathan: doing that stands out to me is twitter. not really talking it down so much. manus: i'm going for peak twitter. jonathan: manus cranny, thank you very much. he will break it down. that is coming up, you don't want to miss that. for now, 56 minutes into the session equity markets are high. the dax in frankfurt, germany also higher. in the fx market i can see a stronger dollar. that is it for me. ♪

manus: harder and faster. the barclays chairman says he will step up with cuts to the british lender as investment banking profits jump. pumped up. total smashes earnings. despite the crude slumped, production and refining surge. and, twitter takes a tumble in after-hours trading as interim ceo jack dorsey feels flat about growth prospects.